RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (3 Viewers)

[JohnnyU]

In one non-SF league I have the 1.02 and I'm leaning JSN, because with Gibbs, you are putting all your eggs in the receiving ability basket, because his size will limit him running the ball most likely. For that reason I'm leaning JSN.

 

[Faust]

Simms' RB draft rankings: No. 2 Jahmyr Gibbs

 

[menobrown]

In one non-SF league I have the 1.02 and I'm leaning JSN, because with Gibbs, you are putting all your eggs in the receiving ability basket, because his size will limit him running the ball most likely. For that reason I'm leaning JSN.

I think you got this backwards.

Gibbs scored more fantasy points in college as a runner then as a receiver. He's a dual threat option.

JSN, as most receivers are, is the one who will be scoring almost all of his points as a receiver.

 

[socrates]

In one non-SF league I have the 1.02 and I'm leaning JSN, because with Gibbs, you are putting all your eggs in the receiving ability basket, because his size will limit him running the ball most likely. For that reason I'm leaning JSN.

I think you got this backwards.

Gibbs scored more fantasy points in college as a runner then as a receiver. He's a dual threat option.

JSN, as most receivers are, is the one who will be scoring almost all of his points as a receiver.

JSN will be scoring his points via the passing game. I believe what @JohnnyU is referring to is the size of each player's potential role. I agree that there is a risk given his size that Gibbs' role is more limited than JSN's role.

Edit to add: I have Gibbs at my 1.02 and JSN at 1.03, both in the same tier. No doubt the NFL Draft may change those rankings. Despite some concern with Gibbs' size, I am bullish on his potential in PPR leagues.

 

[JohnnyU]

In one non-SF league I have the 1.02 and I'm leaning JSN, because with Gibbs, you are putting all your eggs in the receiving ability basket, because his size will limit him running the ball most likely. For that reason I'm leaning JSN.

I think you got this backwards.

Gibbs scored more fantasy points in college as a runner then as a receiver. He's a dual threat option.

JSN, as most receivers are, is the one who will be scoring almost all of his points as a receiver.

JSN will be scoring his points via the passing game. I believe what @JohnnyU is referring to is the size of each player's potential role. I agree that there is a risk given his size that Gibbs' role is more limited than JSN's role.

Edit to add: I have Gibbs at my 1.02 and JSN at 1.03, both in the same tier. No doubt the NFL Draft may change those rankings. Despite some concern with Gibbs' size, I am bullish on his potential in PPR leagues.

You may be bullish on Gibbs in PPR, but we know what JSN will be in PPR. How many times have we projected college pass catching RBs only to be disappointed? I think there is more risk with Gibbs than JSN, thus why I have him over Gibbs at 1.02.

 

[JohnnyU]

In one non-SF league I have the 1.02 and I'm leaning JSN, because with Gibbs, you are putting all your eggs in the receiving ability basket, because his size will limit him running the ball most likely. For that reason I'm leaning JSN.

I think you got this backwards.

Gibbs scored more fantasy points in college as a runner then as a receiver. He's a dual threat option.

JSN, as most receivers are, is the one who will be scoring almost all of his points as a receiver.

You over value Gibbs as a runner. He's never had a 1000 yard season. However, his 6.1 PYC was nice last year, but it is Alabama. I can see him getting pigeonholed into a full fledged RBBC. I'm not saying he won't be a valuable fantasy asset, he will, I just think JSN will be more valuable. I have Gibbs in two DEVY leagues.

 

[menobrown]

You over value Gibbs as a runner. He's never had a 1000 yard season

That's a silly arbitrary number to me. Ekeler's never hit either in the NFL with a lot more games and he's been the best RB in fantasy over the last two years.

You may be bullish on Gibbs in PPR, but we know what JSN will be in PPR. How many times have we projected college pass catching RBs only to be disappointed? I think there is more risk with Gibbs than JSN, thus why I have him over Gibbs at 1.02.

I don't agree that we know what JSN will be and I"m sorry but we've been plenty disappointed projecting WR's into the NFL as well. I also can't say enough I don't think he's just a pass catching RB.

JSN will be scoring his points via the passing game. I believe what @JohnnyU is referring to is the size of each player's potential role. I agree that there is a risk given his size that Gibbs' role is more limited than JSN's role.

Yes of course JSN will be scoring his points in the passing game and my point is Gibbs will be doing both. I truly believe the talk of Gibbs size is one of the most overly exaggerated items I can recall. It's like the 1,000 yard thing, people are clamoring onto this 200 pound benchmark. He ran for 926 yards and is 199 pounds. We got to stop with these arbitrary numbers(not that you said 200).

Now, Gibbs does NOT run with power. That, not his weight, is a legit knock. But that lack of power is not just because of his weight but his running style, he does not get low enough IMO.

I know from what I watched and opinions of some others, some who worked in the league, that describe him as a 3 down back. That's not the same thing as an everydown back, but its to say he's a back who can play on all downs, not just some COP, third down. That's not him. I don't think going to be an overly high volume runner though, but not many are, two Rb's averaged over 20 carries a game last year and both barely. I don't think he's going to have an issue handling 12+ carries a game. He may come out on a lot of obvious short yardage plays which may limit his goal line usage, not that I'd expect him to be a zero but that goes along with his lack of running with a lot of power and is a legit knock.

 

[JohnnyU]

You over value Gibbs as a runner. He's never had a 1000 yard season

That's a silly arbitrary number to me. Ekeler's never hit either in the NFL with a lot more games and he's been the best RB in fantasy over the last two years.

You may be bullish on Gibbs in PPR, but we know what JSN will be in PPR. How many times have we projected college pass catching RBs only to be disappointed? I think there is more risk with Gibbs than JSN, thus why I have him over Gibbs at 1.02.

I don't agree that we know what JSN will be and I"m sorry but we've been plenty disappointed projecting WR's into the NFL as well. I also can't say enough I don't think he's just a pass catching RB.

JSN will be scoring his points via the passing game. I believe what @JohnnyU is referring to is the size of each player's potential role. I agree that there is a risk given his size that Gibbs' role is more limited than JSN's role.

Yes of course JSN will be scoring his points in the passing game and my point is Gibbs will be doing both. I truly believe the talk of Gibbs size is one of the most overly exaggerated items I can recall. It's like the 1,000 yard thing, people are clamoring onto this 200 pound benchmark. He ran for 926 yards and is 199 pounds. We got to stop with these arbitrary numbers(not that you said 200).

Now, Gibbs does NOT run with power. That, not his weight, is a legit knock. But that lack of power is not just because of his weight but his running style, he does not get low enough IMO.

I know from what I watched and opinions of some others, some who worked in the league, that describe him as a 3 down back. That's not the same thing as an everydown back, but its to say he's a back who can play on all downs, not just some COP, third down. That's not him. I don't think going to be an overly high volume runner though, but not many are, two Rb's averaged over 20 carries a game last year and both barely. I don't think he's going to have an issue handling 12+ carries a game. He may come out on a lot of obvious short yardage plays which may limit his goal line usage, not that I'd expect him to be a zero but that goes along with his lack of running with a lot of power and is a legit knock.

I love Gibbs,, I have him in two Devy Leagues. I just like JSN a little more. I stand by my position that I think Gibbs carries more risk.

 

[starks]

Anyone think he goes at the end of round 1 or is he a day 2 lock? You would figure nabbing a rb at the end of first at least guarantees you the 5th year option with ability to franchise the following year. If he were to go to say the Bengals then they cut Mixon would this be a case where you choose him over robinson if he were to end up in New England or Baltimore in the mid first where he is projected?

 

[greenmountaingoat]

Anyone think he goes at the end of round 1 or is he a day 2 lock? You would figure nabbing a rb at the end of first at least guarantees you the 5th year option with ability to franchise the following year. If he were to go to say the Bengals then they cut Mixon would this be a case where you choose him over robinson if he were to end up in New England or Baltimore in the mid first where he is projected?

You're just screwing with us, aren't you?

 

[starks]

Hah, no I haven't read through this whole thread or anything if there is some context I am missing. Just a couple honest questions and hypotheticals

 

[eighsse2]

Hah, no I haven't read through this whole thread or anything if there is some context I am missing. Just a couple honest questions and hypotheticals

I think the dubious part was considering picking anyone over Bijan, regardless of basically any possible developments, other than his death/maiming, imprisonment, declaring support of Trump, etc.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

Hah, no I haven't read through this whole thread or anything if there is some context I am missing. Just a couple honest questions and hypotheticals

I just spent a while outlining the landing spots for myself in the Bijan thread. I assumed you were continuing the conversation. That would be a tough situation for folks that paid the iron price for the 1.01. Funny thing is that there's no way anyone can know for sure how he'll be used or whatever. I thought the Jets were a kinda crappy spot for Breece but they fed him like a monster once he was up to speed. Truly elite talent gets fed more often than not. But yea, Dobbins and Stevenson are a notch above Carter and those staffs. Yikes.

Your question also probably stirs some memories for the folks that picked up CEH as a not elite talent in a high end landing spot.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Hah, no I haven't read through this whole thread or anything if there is some context I am missing. Just a couple honest questions and hypotheticals

I’m starting to close that gap a bit between Robinson and Gibbs - but situations change quick and Bijan offers ideal size and the complete package. You can’t take Gibbs over Robinson no matter what the landing spots end up.

 

[menobrown]

Anyone think he goes at the end of round 1 or is he a day 2 lock? You would figure nabbing a rb at the end of first at least guarantees you the 5th year option with ability to franchise the following year. If he were to go to say the Bengals then they cut Mixon would this be a case where you choose him over robinson if he were to end up in New England or Baltimore in the mid first where he is projected?

I think he's got a chance to go in late round one for sure, I think odds are against but yes he's got a shot.

I don't have 1.1 so I don't get to make that choice. I got a 1.2 and I'd say it would take a whole lot for me to be in a position were I'd pulling for the guy at 1.1 to NOT take Bijan and if it worked out that the guy at 1.1 is being forced to seriously mull it over it probably means I'm really happy with whatever choice I get.

 

[Da Franchise]

Anyone think he goes at the end of round 1 or is he a day 2 lock? You would figure nabbing a rb at the end of first at least guarantees you the 5th year option with ability to franchise the following year. If he were to go to say the Bengals then they cut Mixon would this be a case where you choose him over robinson if he were to end up in New England or Baltimore in the mid first where he is projected?

I’m not sure the 5th year option matters much as an incentive to draft him based on the contracts RBs are getting. Seems like unless you’re a true stud, like a Henry or CMC level guy, you’re not going to have a hard time working out an extension if you want to keep him. I like Gibbs just fine (not to mention he has the best last name in football) but he just doesn’t seem to be that kind of back at all.

Put it this way. If I’m a team holding pick 32 and pick 33, and I want Gibbs, I’m spending the 32 pick on a different position and taking him 33 because the option would have more impact at say LT, CB, WR, etc. Totally hypothetical of course but just illustrates my point.

 

[menobrown]

I like Gibbs just fine (not to mention he has the best last name in football) but he just doesn’t seem to be that kind of back at all.

I do disagree on this part as I see him as exactly the kind of RB you want to keep because he'll be entering his age 25 season 5 years from now and his style of game is one that probably won't suffer the wear and tear of other starting RB's.

Put it this way. If I’m a team holding pick 32 and pick 33, and I want Gibbs, I’m spending the 32 pick on a different position and taking him 33 because the option would have more impact at say LT, CB, WR, etc

This I agree with and actually was a scenario briefly discussed on my twitter timeline this morning. People send Cowboys related mock to Bryan Broadhaus(ex-GM/scout) and he'll comment on some and one person's mock had him trading back out of round one and taking Gibbs at Dallas at 34. Broadhaus did not like the move and giving up that 5th year option. I did not agree with him for the reasons you stated, much more important to get that 5th year on other positions.

 

[Da Franchise]

I like Gibbs just fine (not to mention he has the best last name in football) but he just doesn’t seem to be that kind of back at all.

I do disagree on this part as I see him as exactly the kind of RB you want to keep because he'll be entering his age 25 season 5 years from now and his style of game is one that probably won't suffer the wear and tear of other starting RB's.

I don’t disagree with anything you wrote there. I guess what Im asking is, do you think he’s the type of back that has enough leverage to refuse an early an extension from the team that drafted him, and force the team play the tag/free agent game?

That’s a dicey move because you’re risking another year of injury exposure and anticipating a hot market that would drive the price up north of whatever generous extension is on the table following a very productive first three seasons (let’s assume). And taking the risk of absorbing a tag season, which would still be pretty cost effective for the team.

Bijan is that kind of prospect to me. Do you think Gibbs is at that level too? Genuinely curious.

 

[rockaction]

Put it this way. If I’m a team holding pick 32 and pick 33, and I want Gibbs, I’m spending the 32 pick on a different position and taking him 33 because the option would have more impact at say LT, CB, WR, etc

This I agree with and actually was a scenario briefly discussed on my twitter timeline this morning. People send Cowboys related mock to Bryan Broadhaus(ex-GM/scout) and he'll comment on some and one person's mock had him trading back out of round one and taking Gibbs at Dallas at 34. Broadhaus did not like the move and giving up that 5th year option. I did not agree with him for the reasons you stated, much more important to get that 5th year on other positions.

This exchange was awesome and warmed my heart.

 

[menobrown]

I like Gibbs just fine (not to mention he has the best last name in football) but he just doesn’t seem to be that kind of back at all.

I do disagree on this part as I see him as exactly the kind of RB you want to keep because he'll be entering his age 25 season 5 years from now and his style of game is one that probably won't suffer the wear and tear of other starting RB's.

I don’t disagree with anything you wrote there. I guess what Im asking is, do you think he’s the type of back that has enough leverage to refuse an early an extension from the team that drafted him, and force the team play the tag/free agent game?

That’s a dicey move because you’re risking another year of injury exposure and anticipating a hot market that would drive the price up north of whatever generous extension is on the table following a very productive first three seasons (let’s assume). And taking the risk of absorbing a tag season, which would still be pretty cost effective for the team.

Bijan is that kind of prospect to me. Do you think Gibbs is at that level too? Genuinely curious.

That's hard to say. I don't know if the RB market will rebound but the top FA Rb's all got tagged. Barkley is only one we heard reports of a multi-year deal that exceeded the tag amount and I'm afraid it looks like he chose poorly because that offer has apparently been pulled. Obviously the one year tag deals are better but Sanders got the most guaranteed money of any FA RB this off-season, teams just don't seen to want to do anymore of those extensions like Cook, Kamara, CMC, Mixon or Henry got right now.

So I'm not sure I got a ton of trust of any RB, even Bijan, having teams want to give them big money early extensions and it not be might be prudent for any of them to turn it down if it's decent looking. Gibbs due to some reasons I indicated has some things in his favor. If for instance a team wanted to extend him for 3 years with the typical out after 2 that would cover his age 25-27 seasons with an out after his age 26 season. For what I expect to be little lower wear and tear RB this might be a preferred option but I can't say I have a large amount of trust that would happen.

I was mainly trying to make a point that I think the odds are he will not be considered a declining player heading into his 5th year and teams would have more confidence doing that 5th year or an extension. If you are asking me if I think his talent is good enough, and the market is back to extending RB's on strong multi year deals like that aforementioned types, yes I think that's possible. If a team was using a first round pick on him I'd have to think that at least that regime would feel that way about his potential as well.

But like I said earlier I think we agree on the broader point that making sure you have the 5th year option at your disposal is arguably least important for RB's then any other position. And someone could argue it's even more important for a RB you want to be a bell cow RB, a 20 carry type, with the notion you intend to ride them to death and value having that 5th year, but know you intend to ride them so hard you likely won't want to get into a long term deal. Gibbs is obviously not that kind of RB.

Hope that answered the question.

 

[Faust]

The Athletic's Bo Wulf believes Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs could "intrigue" in the Eagles at the end of the first round or the beginning of the second round of the 2023 draft. ​

Wulf posited the Eagles, after parting ways with former lead back Miles Sanders this offseason, could take a running backs in the first few rounds of the NFL Draft -- someone who would split the backfield with Kenneth Gainwell. Gibbs, who ran a blazing fast 4.36 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine and totaled 1,370 yards from scrimmage in his final collegiate season, could fall into a part of the draft where Philadelphia is comfortable using draft capital on a running back. "Though his skill set might seem to be somewhat duplicative with Gainwell’s, Gibbs seems like someone who would intrigue Philadelphia at the back end of the first round or at the top of the second round if it ends up trading back," Wulf said. The Eagles in 2022 led the league in EPA per rush. Gibbs would have plenty of fantasy appeal if he were to land in Philly and play behind an elite offensive line, playing side by side with dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts.
RELATED:

• Kenneth Gainwell
• , Philadelphia Eagles

SOURCE: The Athletic
Apr 11, 2023 at 9:45 AM ET

 

[Faust]

NFL Rookie Watch @NFLRookieWatxh Jahmyr Gibbs said in a recent interview that he believes his game resembles a “mixture” of Christian McCaffrey and Jamaal Charles. Several NFL scouts believe Gibbs will be among “the best” pass catching RB’s in the league, the moment he’s drafted. Gibbs is currently projected to be the second RB selected at the Draft. Gibbs has not gone on any confirmed Top-30 visits as of now

https://twitter.com/NFLRookieWatxh/status/1645825385731424256?s=20

 

[menobrown]

2023 NFL draft: Louis Riddick's favorite prospects, sleepers

When you find a true three-down running back who can run inside or outside, has the elusiveness to make you miss in the open field and shows the speed to go the distance, you take him. And you do it early in the draft. And that's especially true when that same running back is a true third-down threat as a receiver. Gibbs will be among the best pass-catching backs in the NFL the moment he's drafted. I'd get him involved out on the edge on wide zone runs, hit him on halfback screens and flank him out against safeties and Will linebackers. Because once Gibbs gets in space, he's gone.

Sure, he's only 5-foot-9 and 199 pounds, but he will give you all 199 pounds. He'll dip and lower his shoulder on you. Gibbs is going to be a really good pro as a modern do-it-all back.

 

[JohnnyU]

2023 NFL draft: Louis Riddick's favorite prospects, sleepers

When you find a true three-down running back who can run inside or outside, has the elusiveness to make you miss in the open field and shows the speed to go the distance, you take him. And you do it early in the draft. And that's especially true when that same running back is a true third-down threat as a receiver. Gibbs will be among the best pass-catching backs in the NFL the moment he's drafted. I'd get him involved out on the edge on wide zone runs, hit him on halfback screens and flank him out against safeties and Will linebackers. Because once Gibbs gets in space, he's gone.

Sure, he's only 5-foot-9 and 199 pounds, but he will give you all 199 pounds. He'll dip and lower his shoulder on you. Gibbs is going to be a really good pro as a modern do-it-all back.

I’d rather take JSN and I have Gibbs in two DEVY leagues.

 

[menobrown]

2023 NFL draft: Louis Riddick's favorite prospects, sleepers

When you find a true three-down running back who can run inside or outside, has the elusiveness to make you miss in the open field and shows the speed to go the distance, you take him. And you do it early in the draft. And that's especially true when that same running back is a true third-down threat as a receiver. Gibbs will be among the best pass-catching backs in the NFL the moment he's drafted. I'd get him involved out on the edge on wide zone runs, hit him on halfback screens and flank him out against safeties and Will linebackers. Because once Gibbs gets in space, he's gone.

Sure, he's only 5-foot-9 and 199 pounds, but he will give you all 199 pounds. He'll dip and lower his shoulder on you. Gibbs is going to be a really good pro as a modern do-it-all back.

I’d rather take JSN and I have Gibbs in two DEVY leagues.

Ok

 

[Birdie048]

Sure, he's only 5-foot-9 and 199 pounds, but he will give you all 199 pounds. He'll dip and lower his shoulder on you. Gibbs is going to be a really good pro as a modern do-it-all back.

I like his talent. I like his physical skill set and attributes. I love how he has the fluid shifty moves on the field. I just wonder how it will translate into NFL success.

What is the NFL history of smaller backs? Aside from Jones-Drew (5'7" 220 lb) or Darren Sproles (5'6" 190 lb) success, how many <5'10" & < 200 lb RB's last more than a season with > 200 touches? The smaller size has obvious injury risk due to the disparity, but the overall physical limitations have to be considered... Right?
Current Devin Singletary (5'7" 203 lb) and Boston Scott 5'6" 203 lb) have a total of 2 seasons (of 8) with >200 touches /year. Not something to invest an early pick for NFL but fantasy could see the value if more along the lines of D Swift usage (12-15 touches/gm) but that is another RBBC situation and not a true Bellcow.
Jones-Drew had 5 of 7 seasons >200 touches and Sproles had ZERO seasons > 200 out of 13

Expectations might want to be tempered some for the smaller RB's ... More 3rd Down Specialist ?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

The smaller size has obvious injury risk due to the disparity

I've heard this many many times about many many different "small" RBs but I have never seen anyone back it up with statistics.

Do smaller RBs really get injured more often than big RBs? My guess is "no", RBs generally get hurt a lot. I'm not even sure logically it makes sense. Obviously there is some cutoff where below that weight it's not realistic for an NFL player, but my guess is if you look at all RBs over the years between 190 and 250 pounds - we'd see injuries spread out pretty equally.

ETA: Look at how much time a perfect specimen like Saquan Barkely (5'11", 233 pounds) has missed during his career.

 

[foxco]

Tiki Barber was 1 inch taller and about 5 pounds heavier, Brian Westbrook similar, Charlie Garner similar. I think Gibb's talent will make him a good/great fantasy asset even if he's not a bellcow. Worth the risk for me...

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Tiki Barber was 1 inch taller and about 5 pounds heavier, Brian Westbrook similar, Charlie Garner similar. I think Gibb's talent will make him a good/great fantasy asset even if he's not a bellcow. Worth the risk for me...

Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy, Reggie Bush, DeAngelo Williams, Ray Rice, Jamal Charles, Chris Johnson are other RBs that weighed around 200 pounds with massive success in the NFL.

 

[menobrown]

The smaller size has obvious injury risk due to the disparity

I've heard this many many times about many many different "small" RBs but I have never seen anyone back it up with statistics.

Do smaller RBs really get injured more often than big RBs? My guess is "no", RBs generally get hurt a lot. I'm not even sure logically it makes sense. Obviously there is some cutoff where below that weight it's not realistic for an NFL player, but my guess is if you look at all RBs over the years between 190 and 250 pounds - we'd see injuries spread out pretty equally.

ETA: Look at how much time a perfect specimen like Saquan Barkely (5'11", 233 pounds) has missed during his career.

Could not agree more. I doubt size has any impact whatsoever on injury history for RB's.

Gibbs size is a major contributor to his biggest weakness which is he does not run with great power which can of course limit his goal line usage. That's the concern and that's where it ends for me.

 

[Terpman22]

The smaller size has obvious injury risk due to the disparity

I've heard this many many times about many many different "small" RBs but I have never seen anyone back it up with statistics.

Do smaller RBs really get injured more often than big RBs? My guess is "no", RBs generally get hurt a lot. I'm not even sure logically it makes sense. Obviously there is some cutoff where below that weight it's not realistic for an NFL player, but my guess is if you look at all RBs over the years between 190 and 250 pounds - we'd see injuries spread out pretty equally.

ETA: Look at how much time a perfect specimen like Saquan Barkely (5'11", 233 pounds) has missed during his career.

I like Gibbs a lot. He's my 1.2 this year for sure. I think a factor people are kind of not looking at is the size of defenders these days. They aren't as big as they used to be. I'm no physics expert by any means, but with the rules the way they are, and linebackers typically in the 230-240 range vs the past where they were all 250+, defensive ends are a bit lighter too, I would think this would be a good thing for the smaller backs to have success more in today's game than the past. Just my .02

 

[Birdie048]

Thanks for all the player names that fit the mold. And if I have time, I will look at Rounds 1-3 Drafted RB size under 5'8 and < 200 lb. I am just looking at longevity in NFL with > 200 touches a season. Nice discussions all!

 

[menobrown]

The smaller size has obvious injury risk due to the disparity

I've heard this many many times about many many different "small" RBs but I have never seen anyone back it up with statistics.

Do smaller RBs really get injured more often than big RBs? My guess is "no", RBs generally get hurt a lot. I'm not even sure logically it makes sense. Obviously there is some cutoff where below that weight it's not realistic for an NFL player, but my guess is if you look at all RBs over the years between 190 and 250 pounds - we'd see injuries spread out pretty equally.

ETA: Look at how much time a perfect specimen like Saquan Barkely (5'11", 233 pounds) has missed during his career.

I like Gibbs a lot. He's my 1.2 this year for sure. I think a factor people are kind of not looking at is the size of defenders these days. They aren't as big as they used to be. I'm no physics expert by any means, but with the rules the way they are, and linebackers typically in the 230-240 range vs the past where they were all 250+, defensive ends are a bit lighter too, I would think this would be a good thing for the smaller backs to have success more in today's game than the past. Just my .02

I've been making this point as well, the league is getting smaller on defense(as well as WR and maybe QB).

 

[titusbramble]

Not all touches are equal, say he did have 200 touches, if Gibbs is taking 70-80 receptions out of the backfield/on designed routes where he's running into the secondary (if not out of bounds), it's going to be somewhat less wear and tear than someone having 12 runs between the tackles every game. You would think (hope) that whoever drafts Gibbs would think to be able to design his usage around his physical limits

 

[Birdie048]

The smaller size has obvious injury risk due to the disparity

I like Gibbs a lot. He's my 1.2 this year for sure. I think a factor people are kind of not looking at is the size of defenders these days. They aren't as big as they used to be. I'm no physics expert by any means, but with the rules the way they are, and linebackers typically in the 230-240 range vs the past where they were all 250+, defensive ends are a bit lighter too, I would think this would be a good thing for the smaller backs to have success more in today's game than the past. Just my .02

I've been making this point as well, the league is getting smaller on defense(as well as WR and maybe QB).

So we are looking at agility & elusiveness aka Barry Sanders as the modern day RB?
I see merit for the cause & agree there has been a shift toward lighter players in some positions, but OL/DL may not be included in this movement except "edge" pass rush specialists.

 

[Terpman22]

The smaller size has obvious injury risk due to the disparity

I like Gibbs a lot. He's my 1.2 this year for sure. I think a factor people are kind of not looking at is the size of defenders these days. They aren't as big as they used to be. I'm no physics expert by any means, but with the rules the way they are, and linebackers typically in the 230-240 range vs the past where they were all 250+, defensive ends are a bit lighter too, I would think this would be a good thing for the smaller backs to have success more in today's game than the past. Just my .02

I've been making this point as well, the league is getting smaller on defense(as well as WR and maybe QB).

So we are looking at agility & elusiveness aka Barry Sanders as the modern day RB?
I see merit for the cause & agree there has been a shift toward lighter players in some positions, but OL/DL may not be included in this movement except "edge" pass rush specialists.

Possibly? But Barry is a top 3 RB all time so those guys are extremely rare b/c they have elite traits in all the categories, and Barry for as elusive as he was, was a very powerful runner. I don't see the same power in Gibbs personally. Plus more Safeties are coverage specialist these days vs the Brian Dawkins/Steve Atwater types that can really wreck a guy.

 

[Faust]

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports the Bucs are hosting Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs for a top-30 visit.​

The Bucs' first pick is No. 19 overall, though it's unlikely that they would take Gibbs that early in the draft. Most pundits see Gibbs as an early Day Two pick. Gibbs' visit with Tampa Bay will stoke fears that the Bucs weren't impressed with what they saw from Rachaad White in 2022. The rookie didn't do much to separate himself from Leonard Fournette last year, though that could simply prove that the Bucs' offense was too stagnant for any running back to thrive. Gibbs has an elite receiving profile and is incredibly elusive. He will be an immediate threat for high-value touches on whatever team lands him via the draft.
RELATED:

• Rachaad White
• , Tampa Bay Buccaneers

SOURCE: Ian Rapoport on Twitter
Apr 12, 2023 at 3:24 PM ET

 

[travdogg]

I'd be shocked if TB didn't take a RB in the 1st 3 rounds. Gibbs would certainly make a ton of sense there.

 

[barackdhouse]

In two TriFlex startups right now and he went 4.03 as RB8 in one and I took him in another at 4.10 as RB9. *shrugs*

 

[eighsse2]

I'd be shocked if TB didn't take a RB in the 1st 3 rounds. Gibbs would certainly make a ton of sense there.

Isn't White a very good receiving back? Not that it hurts having two, but.

 

[travdogg]

I'd be shocked if TB didn't take a RB in the 1st 3 rounds. Gibbs would certainly make a ton of sense there.

Isn't White a very good receiving back? Not that it hurts having two, but.

I mean, its the stronger part of White's game, but he's just nowhere near the talent Gibbs is.

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

They need a big bodied tackle breaker, neither White or Gibbs is that guy. Don't think they'd be an especially complimentary pair.

 

[pinkstapler]

Thanks for all the player names that fit the mold. And if I have time, I will look at Rounds 1-3 Drafted RB size under 5'8 and < 200 lb. I am just looking at longevity in NFL with > 200 touches a season. Nice discussions all!

Got a lot of this info from JJ Zachariason's podcast (great listen if you don't already)

Since 2011 the only RBs drafted in the top 64 under 200lbs were Isiah Peed, LaMichael James, and James Cook.

Since 2011, including every RB who was drafted or went to the combine who were under 200lbs, none of them had a season avg of 15+ppg across their first three seasons. The only two who got close were Andre Ellington and Tarik Cohen.

In the past three years 51 times a RB has averaged 14+ppg with a minimum 8 games played. Taking repeat performances into consideration, you drop that to 28 unique RBs hitting that threshold. 23 of those 28 were 210+lbs. The ones who weren't were CMac, Aaron Jones (drafted 5th round 182nd overall), Austin Ekeler (undrafted, not even invited to combine), Elijah Mitchell (drafted 6th round 194th overall), and Myles Gaskin (drafted 7th round 234th overall). The last two also have struggled with injuries and have been replaced as starters already.

A lot is made, justifiably so, about arbitrary cut offs (also why I don't love fantasy scoring systems that give bonuses for 100 yards rushing/receiving haha). While I personally believe there is meaningful difference between 200lbs to 210lbs, JJ pulled data expanding the thresh hold to that 210 number.

RBs weighing less than 210lbs drafted in the top 50 since 2011 include CMac, Ronald Jones, Gio Bernard, David Wilson, Isiah Peed, and CEH.

Pick 50 also arbitrary? Taking it back to pick 100 it adds RBs Duke Johnson, Tevin Coleman, Ameer Abdullah, Bishop Sankey, Jerrick McKinnon, Tre Mason, Ronnie Hillman, LaMichael James, Devon Singletary, JK Dobbins, Darrel Henderson, Darrington Evans, and James Cook to that list. This is the list you are looking at when considering hit rate among backs sized like Gibbs, even expanding it by 10 lbs.

All this just to say, I still have Gibbs as my personal RB2 pre-draft. The only RB I see overtaking him pending landing spots is Charbs. Like some other posters, I would also take JSN ahead of Gibbs predraft; so he's my 1.3 overall as of now. But you're betting on an outlier. His weight is a red flag regardless of his other numbers. Of the 20+ comparable RBs listed above, I think drafting Gibbs at 1.2, and even 1.3, you're only going to be happy with 3 of the outcomes. Of those three outcomes, Ekeler couldn't be more of an outlier not even getting drafted. Jones was drafted in the 5th round, and was actually the 2nd RB GB took that year (Williams in the 4th). If you liked those backs during your fantasy draft, they came at a significantly cheaper price as well.

So you're left with CMac. And as good as Gibbs looks, I just don't see anything on film, in the box score, or at the combine that puts Gibbs at that level. So yeah, he's my 1.3 overall, but if I had that pick, I'd be shopping it personally. Gibbs will almost assuredly be a good fantasy RB, but I think the floor is way too low for such a high valued pick with him basically needing to be an extreme outlier to pay the price of admission for where he will go. Just my opinion tho.

 

[Birdie048]

Thanks for all the player names that fit the mold. And if I have time, I will look at Rounds 1-3 Drafted RB size under 5'8 and < 200 lb. I am just looking at longevity in NFL with > 200 touches a season. Nice discussions all!

Got a lot of this info from JJ Zachariason's podcast (great listen if you don't already)

Thanks for the reference ... I will have to spend some time on it.
Good names to compare as "size" vs Draft position review.

All this just to say, I still have Gibbs as my personal RB2 pre-draft. The only RB I see overtaking him pending landing spots is Charbs. Like some other posters, I would also take JSN ahead of Gibbs predraft; so he's my 1.3 overall as of now. But you're betting on an outlier. His weight is a red flag regardless of his other numbers. Of the 20+ comparable RBs listed above, I think drafting Gibbs at 1.2, and even 1.3, you're only going to be happy with 3 of the outcomes. Of those three outcomes, Ekeler couldn't be more of an outlier not even getting drafted. Jones was drafted in the 5th round, and was actually the 2nd RB GB took that year (Williams in the 4th). If you liked those backs during your fantasy draft, they came at a significantly cheaper price as well.

So you're left with CMac. And as good as Gibbs looks, I just don't see anything on film, in the box score, or at the combine that puts Gibbs at that level. So yeah, he's my 1.3 overall, but if I had that pick, I'd be shopping it personally. Gibbs will almost assuredly be a good fantasy RB, but I think the floor is way too low for such a high valued pick with him basically needing to be an extreme outlier to pay the price of admission for where he will go. Just my opinion tho.

I consider UCLA RB Z Charbonnet as RB3 also behind JSN & Addison, but ahead of QJ, I am still diving into Tank Bigsby but I like Kendra Miller as RB4
In TE Prem I am looking at how Charbs compares to Kincaid, but that is a different thread.

Everything I see of Gibbs is he has physical skills, and as foolish as it sounds, much like Bryce Young, their size is a mark to consider against them when so many other positive points are being made. Intellectual Football Knowledge reactions and reading the play are vitally important parts of both their game skill.

But thanks for the info and I agree, CMC does not come along very often.

 

[pinkstapler]

Thanks for all the player names that fit the mold. And if I have time, I will look at Rounds 1-3 Drafted RB size under 5'8 and < 200 lb. I am just looking at longevity in NFL with > 200 touches a season. Nice discussions all!

Got a lot of this info from JJ Zachariason's podcast (great listen if you don't already)

Thanks for the reference ... I will have to spend some time on it.
Good names to compare as "size" vs Draft position review.

All this just to say, I still have Gibbs as my personal RB2 pre-draft. The only RB I see overtaking him pending landing spots is Charbs. Like some other posters, I would also take JSN ahead of Gibbs predraft; so he's my 1.3 overall as of now. But you're betting on an outlier. His weight is a red flag regardless of his other numbers. Of the 20+ comparable RBs listed above, I think drafting Gibbs at 1.2, and even 1.3, you're only going to be happy with 3 of the outcomes. Of those three outcomes, Ekeler couldn't be more of an outlier not even getting drafted. Jones was drafted in the 5th round, and was actually the 2nd RB GB took that year (Williams in the 4th). If you liked those backs during your fantasy draft, they came at a significantly cheaper price as well.

So you're left with CMac. And as good as Gibbs looks, I just don't see anything on film, in the box score, or at the combine that puts Gibbs at that level. So yeah, he's my 1.3 overall, but if I had that pick, I'd be shopping it personally. Gibbs will almost assuredly be a good fantasy RB, but I think the floor is way too low for such a high valued pick with him basically needing to be an extreme outlier to pay the price of admission for where he will go. Just my opinion tho.

I consider UCLA RB Z Charbonnet as RB3 also behind JSN & Addison, but ahead of QJ, I am still diving into Tank Bigsby but I like Kendra Miller as RB4
In TE Prem I am looking at how Charbs compares to Kincaid, but that is a different thread.

Everything I see of Gibbs is he has physical skills, and as foolish as it sounds, much like Bryce Young, their size is a mark to consider against them when so many other positive points are being made. Intellectual Football Knowledge reactions and reading the play are vitally important parts of both their game skill.

But thanks for the info and I agree, CMC does not come along very often.

For sure. A lot of analysts I follow and respect value him more than me, so I'm completely open to the fact I could be wrong on him. I do like him a lot as a player, I tend to have more of a floor focus with early first round picks, whereas later in the draft is where I'll swing for the high ceiling guys. This year, my goal is to get Spears early second round as I see him as maybe 85% of Gibbs at practically half the price (depending how you value picks).

Full disclosure, I was off CMac too. I took Mixon ahead of him at 1.2 that year. Maybe it's copium, but I've resolved myself to believe that miss (despite Mixon still giving me some good years) is worth the fact I never lost draft capital on any of the other RBs in my previous post outside Dobbins, who I'm still holding out hope for haha.

 

[Rookiefever]

Thanks for all the player names that fit the mold. And if I have time, I will look at Rounds 1-3 Drafted RB size under 5'8 and < 200 lb. I am just looking at longevity in NFL with > 200 touches a season. Nice discussions all!

Got a lot of this info from JJ Zachariason's podcast (great listen if you don't already)

Thanks for the reference ... I will have to spend some time on it.
Good names to compare as "size" vs Draft position review.

All this just to say, I still have Gibbs as my personal RB2 pre-draft. The only RB I see overtaking him pending landing spots is Charbs. Like some other posters, I would also take JSN ahead of Gibbs predraft; so he's my 1.3 overall as of now. But you're betting on an outlier. His weight is a red flag regardless of his other numbers. Of the 20+ comparable RBs listed above, I think drafting Gibbs at 1.2, and even 1.3, you're only going to be happy with 3 of the outcomes. Of those three outcomes, Ekeler couldn't be more of an outlier not even getting drafted. Jones was drafted in the 5th round, and was actually the 2nd RB GB took that year (Williams in the 4th). If you liked those backs during your fantasy draft, they came at a significantly cheaper price as well.

So you're left with CMac. And as good as Gibbs looks, I just don't see anything on film, in the box score, or at the combine that puts Gibbs at that level. So yeah, he's my 1.3 overall, but if I had that pick, I'd be shopping it personally. Gibbs will almost assuredly be a good fantasy RB, but I think the floor is way too low for such a high valued pick with him basically needing to be an extreme outlier to pay the price of admission for where he will go. Just my opinion tho.

I consider UCLA RB Z Charbonnet as RB3 also behind JSN & Addison, but ahead of QJ, I am still diving into Tank Bigsby but I like Kendra Miller as RB4
In TE Prem I am looking at how Charbs compares to Kincaid, but that is a different thread.

Everything I see of Gibbs is he has physical skills, and as foolish as it sounds, much like Bryce Young, their size is a mark to consider against them when so many other positive points are being made. Intellectual Football Knowledge reactions and reading the play are vitally important parts of both their game skill.

But thanks for the info and I agree, CMC does not come along very often.

For sure. A lot of analysts I follow and respect value him more than me, so I'm completely open to the fact I could be wrong on him. I do like him a lot as a player, I tend to have more of a floor focus with early first round picks, whereas later in the draft is where I'll swing for the high ceiling guys. This year, my goal is to get Spears early second round as I see him as maybe 85% of Gibbs at practically half the price (depending how you value picks).

Full disclosure, I was off CMac too. I took Mixon ahead of him at 1.2 that year. Maybe it's copium, but I've resolved myself to believe that miss (despite Mixon still giving me some good years) is worth the fact I never lost draft capital on any of the other RBs in my previous post outside Dobbins, who I'm still holding out hope for haha.

Man we have a lot in common. Solid post. I agree with everything you said and I did/ am doing the same things about the previous rbs you speak of. Kinda weird… lol

 

[Da Franchise]

I'd be shocked if TB didn't take a RB in the 1st 3 rounds. Gibbs would certainly make a ton of sense there.

Isn't White a very good receiving back? Not that it hurts having two, but.

I’d say White isn’t a very good *anything*.

 

[Faust]

5 Teams That Could Draft the Next Alvin Kamara

Jahmyr Gibbs or bust for the Dolphins in the draft? Not quite

 

[Faust]

Maurice Jones-Drew: Jahmyr Gibbs Tops Bijan Robinson as No. 1 RB in 2023 NFL Draft

 

[rockaction]

But you're betting on an outlier.

Really solid post with good data. Thanks for sharing.