Yes, the window to move these kind of players is not usually big and for CEH it was a surpisingly long window that you all the way through a few games of his third season.
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RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
The comps for Gibbs are not easy to find and might come more into picture once we know his workouts and size. But I truly think he's got a better then 50/50 shot of running under 4.4. My money is on him being in the 4.3's.
If he is the 5'11/200 as reported that won't make him such a great comp in terms of size and speed for the two RB's I most see him comped to which is Kamara and Swift. Kamara as you have said was 215 but also kind of slow at 4.57. Swift seems small but it a pretty rocked up 212 at 5'8 but a 4.48 guy. His style of play might be most similar to those two, just not the size/speed.
I think among current RB's his closest comp might be CMC. Similar size, I project Gibbs faster. Though from a play style I don't think Gibbs is as good of an interior runner as CMC.
Going a little farther back another RB he might very similar to from a size angle and not far off on speed, though this time he'll be the one running slower, is Chris Johnson. If Gibbs comes in high 4.3's or low 4.4's this might not apply so much but if he can get that down to 1/10th of a second from Chris Johnson, then that becomes more viable. Chris Johnson of course was kind of meh in the passing game, so styles maybe not be similar but a nice comp to refute the notion that despite Gibbs size he can be more then just a space back and fun to imagine a Chris Johnson type player who is more advanced in the passing game.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
This was Waldman’s comp - unfortunately it wasn’t in the most flattering context (teams might fear running him up the gut)
Chris Johnson is a pretty solid body type - that’s a good call. But yeah, not a great receiver.
One comp that popped in my head the other day was Reggie Bush. Very similar from a body size, speed and pass catching ability.
I can see that as well. Just such a smoothness to his game.
I think he’s going to be good regardless of landing spot because I just think he’s a talented player and his game will translate well, but if he goes somewhere and really has an opportunity to be a focal point of an offense…man, watch out.
I think he’s going to be good regardless of landing spot because I just think he’s a talented player and his game will translate well, but if he goes somewhere and really has an opportunity to be a focal point of an offense…man, watch out.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Jamaal Charles
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hopefully he’s what we all thought Reggie Bush would be, and not what he actually became. Like a hybrid of his rookie season and his 2012 season.
titusbramble
Footballguy
Watching closely having the #4 pick in rookie SF draft
He never did put it all together. When he was putting up massive receiving stats he kind of stunk as a runner and then when he started actually running the ball well his usage declined in the passing game.Hopefully he’s what we all thought Reggie Bush would be, and not what he actually became. Like a hybrid of his rookie season and his 2012 season.
I was a much bigger fan of the early Reggie, the first 3 years. That's a guy who was a very ineffective runner on 11 attempts a game but caught 5.6 passes a game and combined those 16.6 touches into a 17 PPG RB, which is usually going to put you in the mid RB1 range.That kind of usage, which is similar to Ekeler, is what I hope Gibbs lands in a situation he can get and I absolutely think he has the skill set for it. I'm usually looking more for a 10-12 carry/4-6 reception RB over a 18-20 carry/1-3 reception type of RB and have for years. As long as they are utilized in the passing game they are virtually can't miss for performance issues, just injury. Usually matchup proof and don't wear down late in the year at same frequency.
This is one of reasons I'm high on Gibbs and don't freak over the size or workload. Now saying that I don't think he's going to return what I'm paying unless he's heavily used in the passing game. If he plays a full season and is in the 50 catch range my guess is I'll be a little disappointed. I'm banking more on a 70+ catch guy over a full season. Give me that and I'll be surprised if he's not a RB1.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That’s why IMO landing spot is going to be everything with this dude.
People are concerned about his weight, but I feel like landing spot will determine usage/value.
I’m torn at 1.04 (I also have 1-3 & 8) because I need a WR more than I need a RB, and while there’s some WR depth, it’s a top-heavy class. If Gibbs goes somewhere like KC, or PHI, maybe CAR & a couple other teams that seem to get great production out of their RBs, and who target them in the receiving game, I won’t be able to pass him up.
If he goes to a more questionable situation, I may have to grab my WR1, and take the next best RB at 1.08 (or try to deal Gibbs to the 1.05 for a modest profit, but that’s trickier to pull off).
But yeah, he’s not a slam dunk 1.04 unless he lands on a team that’s going to full utilize him. That Reggie Bush 85 reception rookie season is probably unrealistic, but he’s a RB who could do it in the right situation.
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Faust
MVP
PFN Fantasy Football
2023 Dynasty Rookie Rankings
No. 4 Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, @AlabamaFTBL
“Smooth is the best way to explain Gibbs’ style, but in an instant, he can hit someone with an electric cut.”
Full Rankings: bit.ly/3l9IyMZ
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
God what a wicked 1st cut - made the defender just face-plant. oof.PFN Fantasy Football
No. 4 Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, @AlabamaFTBL
“Smooth is the best way to explain Gibbs’ style, but in an instant, he can hit someone with an electric cut.”
Full Rankings: bit.ly/3l9IyMZ
I actually don't really agree.
Obviously landing spot means a lot for RB's, especially first year or two. Even Bijan, who would still be 1.1, I think we'd look at him as maybe a better long term asset but a little less on the whole if he got drafted by say the Chargers because it might be a year or two wait for him to be what we thought on idea Ekeler would be hogging so much passing game work.
So again it matters highly for this position but my idea on it not be as huge for Gibbs as most is that I don't see him as an everydown feature back. Those kinds of RB's their landing spot is more key because they need that higher volume. Gibbs has the skillset to work in a tandem with another RB or in a RBBC and still put up healthy stats because he did not need massive volume as a runner.
Also you would hope common sense prevails and any team picking him has a role in mind for him to use him this way. As we saw with CEH that does not always work out, but again that might have been a case that once they got him into camp and they started to see his limitations they adjusted.
Would again stress that landing spot matters, I just think he needs the absolute ideal landing spot less then most RB's in this draft, not more.
It's in line of my expectations as of right now. Chances are he'll miss some games but I'm expecting most places he could land in that late first/mid second round range who would draft him would enable him to average in the neighborhood of 4-5 receptions a game. I know it's not common but Kamara, Barkley, CMC were in that range as rookies and Najee not that far off and to me Gibbs ranks as one of the better "space" backs to enter the league in the last few years.
Risks exist other then injuries. He's not good in pass pro, maybe this cost him a bigger role on passing downs. This again is where you hope common sense prevails and a team spending a high pick on a RB not known for being great in pass pro does not then proceed to not play the guy as much because he's not good in pass pro. He could also run like a low 4.3 40 and that combined with the weaker WR class might have a team view him more as a weapon, and as such not really have plans to make him some kind of 10/5 type. But again my expectation right is something in the 70+ catch neighborhood as a rookie or put into per game prorations a 4-5 per game guy.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
yeah, I've been reading this one as well. It is a risk, but I agree - anyone taking him isn't doing so to use him as a blocker. If he can lay the occasional chip that's probably enough as he's more likely to be targeted on passing plays as opposed to hanging back and blocking.
We can agree to disagree about landing spot - I do agree that a team spending high draft capital on him will likely intend on using him that way, but ya never know. Some teams are better at it than others. Some teams try to shove round pegs into square holes. SF had success using Mostert in a 1-cut system until the physical abuse added up. They never threw to him as much as I thought they should have, either.
Gibbs also might not be selected until the late 2nd, with the way teams draft RBs these days. Not sure how that would play into the calculus.
It's going to be interesting to see what his measurables actually are at the combine - speed will be there I'm sure. Height/weight sometimes change.
Again, I'm very on the fence about it. I'll have Bijan/ETN as my backfield by the time my 104 comes up, so I might offer that pick up for a WR during the draft and see what offers come my way. Or I'll offer ETN up for a WR and draft Gibbs. If none of the offers are sufficient, then Gibbs is definitely a consideration. But I'd much rather see him as a weapon in a complete offense as opposed to going to a bad team or one with a bad QB who lacks the touch to make those quick check-downs. Watching Daniel Jones miss Barkley on poorly thrown touch passes 3-4 yards in the flat over and over again this year is just a reminder that no matter how good a receiving back is, they need a QB that can get the ball to him.
ETA: in a recent mock thy had MIN taking Gibbs, which I thought would be an interesting landing spot.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
They just used an early second on Walker - the chances they use another early pick at RB the very next season seems remote.
steelcityman
Footballguy
Have 1.01, was offered 1.02, 2.02, 3.02 and didnt do it. I like Gibbs, Kamara comes to mind. I need RB, so that would be my choice if i took the deal, but 2.02 and 3.02 just arent enough to move off of Robinson at 1.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Just a reminder we are talking about the Seahawks and they tend to not shy away from grabbing RBs with early picks when they like the talent.
Was Penny a 1st Rd pick? And the Seahawks under Pete Carroll have been IMO one of the better running teams over the last 10-12 years.
Say what you want but Pete is committed to the ground game and that's why i feel they don't need a flashy Top 5 QB,
This team knows how to build up everything else and then find a QB if they truly need one.
I also think they might be able to bring Geno Smith back although I am not his biggest supporter but he had a fantastic '22.
I could see Seattle getting a buddy for Walker and making life easy for anyone that is under Center including a potential rookie.
Sorry for the Seattle pep rally but I am optimistic about how much better they are likely to get when you factor in their draft capital and cap space in the coming 2-3 seasons.
And I feel similar about your team although there are some QB questions right now. I'll save that for another post in a Jets' thread
Cheers Doc
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
No Top 5 WR that i can find, that weakens the 1.02 pick a lot. Hard to pull the trigger at QB that early, tough call but you pick up two more players. The 2.01 and 2.02 can be combined to move up in the 1st, assuming you pick 1st again in the 2nd Rd
Good Luck
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I agree.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I think I agree with this. That’s how much better Bijan is. He’s in a tier of his own.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I’ve offered 1.02 and 1.09 for 1.01 and was rejected.
rockaction
Footballguy
I also wouldn't have done that. Good call.
steelcityman
Footballguy
I have 3 picks in the 2nd rd as of now. If I was offered more, I would consider moving down to 1.02, would like to see NFL draft landing spots first. But this league doesnt trade much at all.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
It’s comforting to know that he’s either an elite, electric, game breaking talent or just another guy. Cool 
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Under no circumstances, will he be a JAGIt’s comforting to know that he’s either an elite, electric, game breaking talent or just another guy. Cool
Who said he was a JAG?
The only issue/question I have is about his BMI. If he has the size/stoutness to be used in the red zone, he’s going to be a stud in the NFL & FF.
If he lacks sufficient BMI, could be Zack Moss. He could still be a stud in the NFL, but it would definitely hurt his fantasy value. Maybe not as much in PPR.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I thought I was reading @EBFUnder no circumstances, will he be a JAGIt’s comforting to know that he’s either an elite, electric, game breaking talent or just another guy. Cool
Who said he was a JAG?
The only issue/question I have is about his BMI. If he has the size/stoutness to be used in the red zone, he’s going to be a stud in the NFL & FF.
If he lacks sufficient BMI, could be Zack Moss. He could still be a stud in the NFL, but it would definitely hurt his fantasy value. Maybe not as much in PPR.
Faust
MVP
PFF College makes a comp of Jahmyr Gibbs to Raheem Mostert
Not shooting the messenger but for sure not in agreement with a lot of PFF comps. Gibbs and Mostert are both fast but that's about where the similarity ends to me.
Was listening to a Move the Sticks Podcast the other day and Daniel Jeremiah said he was talking to a scouting buddy who said Gibbs was Reggie Bush. That's one I was saying earlier so I'm biased but that's one I easily can get behind.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I wouldn’t call Reggie Bush a glowing endorsement.
Ok, I on the other hand like 80 catch RB's who run for 1,000 yards. Granted not all in the same season but the ability is the ability.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yeah Bush was a weird outcome. On one hand he had an 88 reception rookie year. He had 4 seasons over 1200 yards. He scored 58 career TDs but so much of his success was spread out over a bunch of different seasons and the Saints seemed to get committed to using him less and less each season despite developing into a very efficient runner.
Yes he started as an elite receiver but was a poor runner and I recall what I believe a big reason why was he thought he could just outrun NFL defenders like he did in college. Now he was pretty good in fantasy because of the receptions and I recall he was actually my first ever pick in the inaugural FFPC Main Event contest in 2008, took him at 1.11 and after 6 weeks he was the RB1 in fantasy but then went down in week 7. For whatever reason(s) he never resumed that success with the Saints after he went down in week 7 that season but his first 3 seasons, even as an ineffective runner, he put up over 17 fantasy points a game which would have had him as RB5 last year.
Then he went to Miami and late the Lions, become an actually good runner, but his passing game usage was scaled back.
FWIW the exact comment that Jeremiah relayed his scouting buddy saying was that he thought Gibbs would be what Reggie Bush became. People can interpret that how they want but I took it to mean that scout believes Gibbs will be an effective runner like Reggie was later in his career. I did not take it as an expectation of a smaller role in the passing game.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Right ... Sometimes I question the whole "prospect comp" idea. To be compared to Reggie Bush is a glowing endorsement if you're asking me. His career overall was not what you'd want it to be. But he was an extremely good prospect, and had some seasons where it came through to the NFL. If I have dice with 6, 12, 20, and 36 sides, then I'm a total nerd. No, wait, that's not the point. If I roll each die, and they roll 5, 3, 19, and 5 respectively. Then I say you can pick any one die to roll, and you will win the rolled number times $100, are you going to have any trouble deciding which one to roll? I know that's an extreme dumbing down of football prospect analysis, but, what I'm saying is, if you were to give me an exact replica of Reggie coming out of college, I'm paying top dollar for him.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It’s a good comp.
Also makes his BMI very much worth paying attention to at the combine.
Speed & receiving (both routes & hands) are really impressive. I just hope he’s thick enough for the NFL.
Faust
MVP
NFL Rookie Watch @NFLRookieWatxh
Jahmyr Gibbs is a VIOLENT runner
Several NFL scouts believe the Alabama RB compares well to that of Alvin Kamara.
Gibbs is currently prepping for the NFL Combine.
Faust
MVP
With the First Pick Podcast @NFLDraftCBS
Former Vikings GM @spielman_rick sees Jahmyr Gibbs being used in a CMC-type role
JohnnyU
Footballguy
A guy in one of my DEVY leagues tried to use size as a reason I should trade him Gibbs LOL. Don’t you just love it when people slam a guy they want so badly? That’s a sure fire way to turn off the guy you’re trying to trade with. Trading rookie mistake 101.
