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RB Chris Carson, SEA - 10.7.21 - Neck Issue (1 Viewer)

And I think it's possible Pumphrey would have been the high draft pick expected to lead an NFL franchise if he was 2" taller and 40lbs heavier and doing what he did in college.

 
But we may want to take this to the Penny thread before people start complaining about derailing and what not.

 
Well personally I *do* think it's relevant to Carson. My $0.10 is that it makes me think of guys I've played basketball with that have all the moves and power of a VERY solid, say power forward. But they're 6'2". They can absolutely crush against college competition or hard core pickup games and tourneys, but would never matchup in the NBA. 

I wonder if Pumphrey is flat out better than Penny against the college competition they faced, but it simply won't translate in the NFL, regardless of whether that is because of the size question or whether it's coaching/GM bias. It's entirely possible and reasonable that Penny isn't as talented but is the one that can do it in the NFL. Although maybe Pumphrey will carve some kind of NFL role.

Back to Carson. I really liked what I saw from him in limited action, and as much as people want to pile on Rawls and Lacy, I just am not so sure the offensive line woes weren't the main reason they performed bad. But I suppose the fact that Carson and Davis both looked so much better defeats that argument. 

So I love Carson and got him everywhere and was pissed a little when they picked Penny. My question is whether Carson has any future if Penny does win a workhorse role. Is he tradeable? Not likely. Ok I'm drunk I'm done. I hope they trade him. Because I drafted Penny a bunch.

 
Chaka said:
But we may want to take this to the Penny thread before people start complaining about derailing and what not.
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I don't think there is any reason to move this -- Carson's value is tightly bound to Penny's. If anything, you will (mostly) get people more interested in a general discussion on the relative merits of the players than someone being defensive b/c their high draft pick is getting slagged.

 
Chaka said:
But we may want to take this to the Penny thread before people start complaining about derailing and what not.
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I appreciate when anyone is considerate enough to think about other people who end up reading through the thread. In this case, the discussion is still on track enough since Penny is a direct obstacle to Carson’s playing time. Something that I would like to clarify with with you, @Biabreakable @Sigmund Bloom @Bojang0301 and obviously everyone else. 

I would like to like to hear want everyone projects for each players expected rush attempts and receptions. Roughly. It doesn’t need to turn into some kind of math debate on a teams season totals. Just ballpark.

 
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Biabreakable said:
By what ways was Penny better than Pumphrey?

If he was, then how come Pumphrey had 349 rushing attempts to Pennys 136 in 2016?

Penny wasn't injured. He had to wait for Pumphrey to move on to win the job.

I have watched both players and I think Pumphrey was more elusive than Penny by far. I think they are close to the same level of player. Neither significantly better than the other, but Pumphrey must have been at least slightly better or he wouldn't have been starting over Penny.
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Im not super sure this is a great indicator of whether or not penny is good or not good.

Mixon and Perine split carries, i think everyone agrees Mixon is/will be a better player. But in 2016 mixon played 2 more games, and had less carries, less TDs and more fumbles.

Guice didnt beat out Fournette in games where Fournette was healthy. 2015 LF had 300 carries, to guice's 51.

I think it just happens sometimes in college football. A coach is loyal to a guy, cares about seniority, or just has a system in place that works and they stick with it.

 
On Draft Calc (PPR) Penny has an ADP of 3.09 (tied with Derrick Henry, RB17/18) and Carson has an ADP of (13.03, RB54). This does not make sense. If the general consensus is that Carson is after Lat Murray then should Penny not be up closer to Dalvin just based on volume alone? I’m not saying beside Dalvin but if Penny’s closest competition is RB54, he should be ahead of Freeman and anyone else in a time share. I think Carson also represents a great value down there. I think Carson has shown enough to be a startable FF back IF Penny were to get injured. Most would agree that injury is the only way for Lat Murray to have a chance but I think Cook has already shown NFL ability and had season of learning. Penny could be a bust just because we haven’t seen him. Or he could be good but not good enough and end up in a Freeman/Coleman type split with Carson. 

I know that ADP isn’t logical choices made in consideration to previous (like a persons rankings) but I do think it’s a reflection of the community’s thoughts. 

 
Borden said:
I appreciate when anyone is considerate enough to think about other people who end up reading through the thread. In this case, the discussion is still on track enough since Penny is a direct obstacle to Carson’s playing time. Something that I would like to clarify with with you, @Biabreakable @Sigmund Bloom @Bojang0301 and obviously everyone else. 

I would like to like to hear want everyone projects for each players expected rush attempts and receptions. Roughly. It doesn’t need to turn into some kind of math debate on a teams season totals. Just ballpark.
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No idea. @Biabreakable seems like more of a projections guy. I hung up my projections hat anlong time ago.

My rough guess is Carroll would like to see Penny get, maybe 60% of RB opportunities. And split the rest among the remaining backs. My personal feeling is it will end up closer to 55-57% of RB opportunities.

I see Carson getting a majority of the remaining carries and splitting targets.

I do not think Carroll wants a 1A/1B situation like I expect in, say, Tennessee.

 
Bojang0301 said:
Michel and Johnson are definitely in a realm, athletically and production wise, below Penny. I’m sure your vast scouting acumen, eye balls and gut tells you otherwise though. 
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In regards to your arguments on production - are you saying the competition levels of Mountain West conference and SEC are similar? 
In regards to your athletic argument see the below....none are significantly different enough to separate.  They are all NFL caliber.  One could even argue that Kerryon is marginally physically and athletically superior due to his broad and vertical jump, bigger wing span, arm length, and hand size.  Granted he was .11 slower in the 40 but  RBs rarely get to run 40 yards in a straight line.  

  1. Kerryon Johnson
  2. Rashaad Penny
  3. Sony Michel
Again I think Penny wasn't the best option for the Seahawks at that pick with the remaining RBs on the board - I don't envision him as a "great" back - but I have been known to be wrong regularly...just ask my wife.

 
Noah Davis said:
In regards to your arguments on production - are you saying the competition levels of Mountain West conference and SEC are similar? 
In regards to your athletic argument see the below....none are significantly different enough to separate.  They are all NFL caliber.  One could even argue that Kerryon is marginally physically and athletically superior due to his broad and vertical jump, bigger wing span, arm length, and hand size.  Granted he was .11 slower in the 40 but  RBs rarely get to run 40 yards in a straight line.  

  1. Kerryon Johnson
  2. Rashaad Penny
  3. Sony Michel
Again I think Penny wasn't the best option for the Seahawks at that pick with the remaining RBs on the board - I don't envision him as a "great" back - but I have been known to be wrong regularly...just ask my wife.
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I had to go back and look at some auxiliary stuff for athleticism and I was a bit arrogant about Penny. His vert and not doing agility drills hurt the relative athletic score I take into account. Michel equally had an incomplete profile and scored below 90th percentile in all drills he did do but it came out as Michel, Penny, then Kerryon. So they are probably closer than my bias wants to say but that was probably already represented in draft position. Guice would have also fell below Michel but RAS is a simple model and hits you pretty hard if you fall below 50th percentile in a metric. In this case the bench drug these guys down while Michel’s non-compete in multiple workouts helped him. I’m still more enamored with Penny’s 92nd percentile speed score at 220lbs.

Anyway, as far as production... I think there is an overemphasis on level of competition at least to the extent that when dominance becomes overwhelming it’s hard to ignore. Penny had over 50% of his team’s production last season. It’s absolutely ridiculous. 

I posted a lot of these links in the Penny thread:

JJ Zacharisan’s Production Model

Penny’s last 5 college games

PFF YPC after being contacted before or on LOS

Graham Barfields Yards Created:  “Running behind San Diego State's formidable offensive line that finished with the second-best figure in Yards Blocked per attempt (1.66) over the last three years, the Aztecs and Rashaad Penny road-graded inferior front-sevens. Penny obliterated his competition regardless of the defensive front and was the only running back in the class to post above-average Yards Created per attempt figures against both stacked (5.31) and neutral boxes (5.79). Penny was also explosive in between the tackles as his 5.90 YC/A on inside carries is fifth-best in Yards Created history behind Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, and Ezekiel Elliott in that order. Penny also finished with average to above-average figures in missed tackles forced per carry via speed (0.11), elusiveness (0.11) and power (0.18) on his 102 sampled carries. On the whole, Penny is fifth amongst the crop in total missed tackles forced per attempt (0.392) ahead of Derrius Guice (0.389).”

Ok, this is my last Penny post in the Carson thread. If anyone has questions @ me in the Penny thread please don’t quote me here.

 
Bojang0301 said:
I haven’t done projections other than taking a close look at where I think McKinnon will fall. If I get the chance today I’ll look at Penny.... until then here is Mike Clay’s projection for Seattle.
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**Those RB projections are off. The game and yards totals add up but the rushing and receiving TD totals don’t. 1 too high for each.

For RB:

He’s projecting a receiving yardage decline from 684 to 572 and reception decline from 77 to 65. TDs the same (based on count not “total”). 

Rushing as a team: attempts up by 30 from 301 to 332. Yards up 404 from 994 to 1398. TDs up from 7 from 1 (yes! A single RB rushing TD last year!) to 8. 

Carson to get 25% as many carries as Penny. Both having the same YPC at 4.05.

Edit: Also, Mike Davis isn’t listed. 

 
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@Bojang0301 From your yards created link... “Penny and the Aztecs mighty offensive line obliterated their inferior Mountain West competition, but it may take time for Penny to get used to running behind fewer blockers in a modern NFL rushing scheme. Still, Penny will excel early on if he goes to a "heavy" attack as 42 percent of all runs in the NFL last year were in either 12-, 21-, or 22-personnel. Penny has plenty of experience there. Overall, Penny's Yards Created data is promising, but, like nearly everyone not named Barkley or Kelly in the class -- his passing down chops leave a lot to be desired. In his final two years at San Diego State, Penny averaged just 1.26-receptions per game and his 73% pass protection execution rate is slightly below collegiate average (76%).”

Carson might get a shot early if it takes a bit for Penny to get used to the NFL and Seahawks run game. Just another potential piece of the puzzle.

 
Pwingles said:
Im not super sure this is a great indicator of whether or not penny is good or not good.

Mixon and Perine split carries, i think everyone agrees Mixon is/will be a better player. But in 2016 mixon played 2 more games, and had less carries, less TDs and more fumbles.

Guice didnt beat out Fournette in games where Fournette was healthy. 2015 LF had 300 carries, to guice's 51.

I think it just happens sometimes in college football. A coach is loyal to a guy, cares about seniority, or just has a system in place that works and they stick with it.
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Maybe?

I am open to that possibility.

However it is a coaches job to win games and play the players who give them the best chance to do that. That is certainly the case in the NFL (and why Carson might get playing time). 

Why wouldn't this also be the case at the college level?

 
Borden said:
I appreciate when anyone is considerate enough to think about other people who end up reading through the thread. In this case, the discussion is still on track enough since Penny is a direct obstacle to Carson’s playing time. Something that I would like to clarify with with you, @Biabreakable @Sigmund Bloom @Bojang0301 and obviously everyone else. 

I would like to like to hear want everyone projects for each players expected rush attempts and receptions. Roughly. It doesn’t need to turn into some kind of math debate on a teams season totals. Just ballpark.
Click to expand...
I haven't given it much thought yet.

From my perspective the Seahawks have lost lot of good players on the defensive side of the ball and are a team that is regressing. This offseason has been pretty brutal for them.

On the flip side the change of offensive coordinator and poor defense may lead to the Seahawks needing to throw the ball a lot still. I think its possible their offensive line may be better than it has been this year. I would like to hear @Chaka and others thoughts about that before trying to project for the players.

As far as Penny goes I have him as a tier one RB so I do think it is possible he will finish as a top 12 RB within the next 3 seasons. I am not sure about 2018 for him though.

 
Seahawks coach Pete Carroll praised Chris Carson's offseason work on Thursday.

Asked to name someone who has stood out, Carroll began with Carson. "He hasn’t missed one snap of anything," Carroll said. "He’s just looked so fit and just so cut and quick and explosive and all of that. He’s the guy that just stood out in that regard." Carson said last week he's added 10 pounds of muscle. Carson would be an intriguing second-chance fantasy player this year were it not for first-rounder Rashaad Penny. The Seahawks didn't make that investment to have Penny play second fiddle on early downs.

Source: Seattle Times 

Jun 7 - 7:17 PM
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Biabreakable said:
I haven't given it much thought yet.

From my perspective the Seahawks have lost lot of good players on the defensive side of the ball and are a team that is regressing. This offseason has been pretty brutal for them.

On the flip side the change of offensive coordinator and poor defense may lead to the Seahawks needing to throw the ball a lot still. I think its possible their offensive line may be better than it has been this year. I would like to hear @Chaka and others thoughts about that before trying to project for the players.

As far as Penny goes I have him as a tier one RB so I do think it is possible he will finish as a top 12 RB within the next 3 seasons. I am not sure about 2018 for him though.
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I just put this quick analysis in the Nick Chubb thread:

Penny's line is a very big question mark heading into 2018. On the plus side, Justin Britt has been a rock manning the center position, starting 63 of the last 64 games. Germaine Ifedi, a first round pick, has started 29 of the last 32 games Duane Brown started nine games last season and will have a full offseason to work with the team. 2017 second round pick Ethan Pocic was thrown into the fire last year and managed 11 starts.  There is definitely not a ton of cohesion on the Seattle offensive line but it's not all doom and gloom.  A starting unit has a total of 80 starts in a 16 game season (16*5) and Seattle is returning 52 of those starts in 2017, that's right about league average (18th of 32 teams). If we judge by draft capital then it looks like they are not devoid of talent either. There is a big gap at RG that DJ Fluker was brought in to fill, which I am sure doesn't excite many talent evaluators. And of their bench players only Rees Odhiambo started any games last season, in fact he is the only bench player to log any snaps with Seattle in 2017.  George Fant did start 10 games in 2016.  I see the bench as dangerously thin.  They also have a new OC and a new OL coach so there is going to be some new concepts they will have to figure out together.

This is definitely a difficult line to project but I don't think they will be as bad as the popular narrative surrounding them suggests.  I doubt they will move into the upper echelon of OLs, but I think they can easily be a middle of the pack line. IMO I wouldn't negatively adjust players in Seattle on my draft based upon their offensive line, but I wouldn't give them a bump either. 

 
Thank you.

Sort of my initial thoughts on the Seahawks offensive line that they should be improved (they were terrible almost no where to go but up). I am just not sure how improved.

I will give this some more thought when I can find time and try to work on projections for Seattle.

 
Surprise offseason standouts to know for all 32 NFL teams

Excerpt:







 





Running back Chris Carson

Even though Carson began last season as the starter, he should qualify as under the radar because of what has happened since then -- a leg/ankle injury that ended his rookie season a month in, and the Seahawks spending their first-round pick on another running back, Rashaad Penny. Carson has been the most impressive of any running back this summer, and general manager John Schneider has said that at times, Carson looks like the best player on the field. After adding 10 pounds of muscle, Carson was the first name that coach Pete Carroll mentioned when asked which player impressed him the most in terms of the shape he was in when he reported back for offseason work. It'll make for an interesting battle for the starting job. -- Brady Henderson
Click to expand...
 
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/12446/chris-carson

Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times expects Chris Carson to open training camp as the Seahawks' lead running back.

It was widely assumed that role would go to first-round rookie Rashaad Penny, though Condotta, a long-time Seahawks beat writer, sees it playing out a bit differently. His expectation is that Penny will fill a complementary role behind Carson while also working as a return specialist. Carson averaged a respectable 4.2 yards per carry before he got hurt last season, but it's still hard to envision the Seahawks playing him over Penny, who led FBS with 2,248 rushing yards a year ago. Obviously the Carson/Penny competition will be worth monitoring throughout training camp. Jul 22 - 8:48 

 
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tkrull said:
Has anyone done a study on beat-writer accuracy?  I'd like to know which of these clowns I can ignore.
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No clue on how accurate this guy is, but everything I have read/heard in the offseason has been that Pete Carrol has been praising Carson every chance he has gotten. 

 
I want no part of this backfield. HOWEVER, having said that, if Carson falls I will gladly gobble him up. Penny I will not touch. Love the kid, love the talent, don’t like the unknown of the Carroll.

 
tkrull said:
Has anyone done a study on beat-writer accuracy?  I'd like to know which of these clowns I can ignore.
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They're usually as close to the team as you can be. I don't think you can stay a beat writer unless you know your stuff. 

 
tkrull said:
Has anyone done a study on beat-writer accuracy?  I'd like to know which of these clowns I can ignore.
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I read Condotta everyday and he's very reliable.  Not saying this is a certainty but he definitely would know better than anyone that's not directly involved with the team.

 
What? No Rex Burkhead/Sony Michel Davontae Booker/Royce Freeman threads bumped to the top for the same news? It’s almost like people are sensationalizing this because Penny was an unpopular pick at the end of round one and comes from a small school.

 
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Bojang0301 said:
What? No Rex Burkhead/Sony Michel Davontae Booker/Royce Freeman threads bumped to the top for the same news? It’s almost like people are sensationalizing this because Penny was an unpopular pick at the end of round one and comes from a small school.
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This yeti has a lot of fans.

 
(USA Today Fantasy Sports) Seattle Seahawks RB Rashaad Penny needs to show steady growth in Seattle’s passing game - including catching the ball, stonewalling edge rushers and picking up protection calls just before the snap - during camp and preseason games in order to have a chance to share snaps and carries with Chris Carson by the season opener Sept. 9 at Denver, according to Gregg Bell of The Tacoma News Tribune.

 
Chris Carson has been working as the Seahawks' No. 1 running back through the first two days of training camp.

Beat writer Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times predicted this would be the case. Despite drafting Rashaad Penny 27th overall, the Seahawks' coaching staff has talked up Carson all offseason and it would seem the 2017 seventh-rounder is a legitimate threat to Penny's rookie-year workload. Carson can still be had as a late-rounder in most formats, though his stock will surely rise if he continues to hold off Penny.

Related: Rashaad Penny

Source: Brady Henderson on Twitter 

Jul 27 - 3:29 PM
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The Man With No Name said:
(USA Today Fantasy Sports) Seattle Seahawks RB Rashaad Penny needs to show steady growth in Seattle’s passing game - including catching the ball, stonewalling edge rushers and picking up protection calls just before the snap - during camp and preseason games in order to have a chance to share snaps and carries with Chris Carson by the season opener Sept. 9 at Denver, according to Gregg Bell of The Tacoma News Tribune.
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I bet you they keep the same rotation till week 3 of the preseason. They will make Penny earn it. When Carson runs behind the crap first string line against starters and averages 3 ypc and Penny gets to run against the 2nd stringers and puts up numbers and looks good they will then put Penny in as the starter. (As he should be).

People are reading way to much into what the writers are saying and what Pete is saying. Pete lies all the time, he is just nice about it when he lies.

 
ImTheScientist said:
I bet you they keep the same rotation till week 3 of the preseason. They will make Penny earn it. When Carson runs behind the crap first string line against starters and averages 3 ypc and Penny gets to run against the 2nd stringers and puts up numbers and looks good they will then put Penny in as the starter. (As he should be).

People are reading way to much into what the writers are saying and what Pete is saying. Pete lies all the time, he is just nice about it when he lies.
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Doesn't take a scientist to see that Carson is the superior back at this point in time.  I'm placing a lot more bets there this year than on Penny.  

 
mr. peanut said:
Doesn't take a scientist to see that Carson is the superior back at this point in time. 
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Based on what? Have you attended practices? I'm not being snarky - I'm asking sincerely. I'm not saying you are wrong but it seems like the reports flip back and forth each day on who will be the man there.

 
There is no way they drafted Penny in the first round to be a backup. They know exactly what Carson is.  I’m guessing Proise will take a lot of snaps. 

 
hardcoredx said:
There is no way they drafted Penny in the first round to be a backup. 
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They can put Penny in and watch him suck and then get fired for coaching incompetence...probably not an alternative they are willing to consider.

 
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ESPN Seahawks reporter Brady Henderson considers Chris Carson "the favorite" to enter the season as Seattle's starting running back.

By all accounts, Carson has been running circles around the rest of the running backs in Seahawks camp. He looks "all the way back" from last season's ankle/leg injury and has added 10 pounds of muscle to his frame. Seattle used a first-round pick on Penny, and he's obviously going to have a role, but Carson appears to be the favorite for touches right now. Penny is currently being drafted in the fourth round of fantasy drafts, while Carson can he had in the 11th round.

Related: Rashaad Penny

Source: ESPN.com 

Aug 1 - 9:59 AM
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Faust said:
ESPN Seahawks reporter Brady Henderson considers Chris Carson "the favorite" to enter the season as Seattle's starting running back.

By all accounts, Carson has been running circles around the rest of the running backs in Seahawks camp. He looks "all the way back" from last season's ankle/leg injury and has added 10 pounds of muscle to his frame. Seattle used a first-round pick on Penny, and he's obviously going to have a role, but Carson appears to be the favorite for touches right now. Penny is currently being drafted in the fourth round of fantasy drafts, while Carson can he had in the 11th round.

Related: Rashaad Penny

Source: ESPN.com 

Aug 1 - 9:59 AM
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Woah woah woah... according to some specific posters on this message board, 10 pounds of muscle is impossible to build in 1 offseason of football

 
This year.... Penny is GREAT insurance for 2 players.  Great pick in my eyes, shore up a rotation that battled injuries last year (and since Marshawn gone).  He wasnt picked to protect Russel in September.... goodness.

which 2 you ask?

Carson and.................Lockett (return game insurance)

Next year/much later in year he may make his mark.  There, I said it.  There is lot more that goes into a mid to late first round pick then saying they didnt draft him in first round to ride the pine.  
 

 
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