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Post-Combine rookie rankings (1 Viewer)

Dan Hindery

Moderator
Curious to see where people rank the skill position guys now that we have some more info. My personal top 12 (PPR) as of today (though I will continue to update as I watch/read more about these guys, still pretty early in the process for me):

1. Zeke Elliott- Great floor/ceiling combination. Just a good football player and likely 1st round pick. Struggled a little bit catching the ball, but not worried about him in this regard. He didn't have issues with it at OSU and played some WR in high school. 

2. Laquon Treadwell- Wish he would have run and tested better athletically. But I trust what guys like Matt Waldman and Matt Harmon are saying they see on tape which makes them think he'll still be a really successful NFLer even if he's a 4.6 guy.

3. Josh Doctson- On a day when most of the WRs disappointed in testing, Doctson checked all the boxes. The 4.50 was a solid time and the 41 inch vert and 131 inch broad jump were fantastic. In fact, across the board, his testing numbers were really nice. Combine that with great production and I think he probably solidified himself as one of the top WRs in this draft class. 

4. Derrick Henry- Suspect he'll be one of the more controversial guys in this class because he doesn't look like any other recent NFL RBs, which makes him a lot harder to project. But if he goes in the top 40 like Mayock and others think, it'll be because a team wants to feed him the ball 20 times a game as their workhorse back. 

5. Corey Coleman- Again, wish he would have run. Would feel more comfortable with him if we knew for sure he was a legit 4.4-blazer (unlike Kendall Wright).  The few things he did do (bench, vertical, broad jump), he impressed and placed near the top of the WR group. 

6. Will Fuller- His 4.32 forty-time was probably the biggest highlight of the combine on Saturday. It validated his reputation as a big-play threat that can take beat defenses over the top. Some of the other numbers were a bit disappointing however. He's only 186 pounds and did just 10 reps of the bench press. He also had tiny hands (8.25 inches), which helps explain why he seems to body catch a lot and struggles with drops.  

7. Michael Thomas- Overall, Thomas came out of the combine looking pretty good despite the mediocre 4.57 forty-time. He measured at a legit 6'3 with huge 10.5 inch hands. He tested particularly well in the quickness drills (short shuttle and 3 cone drill), which are usually tough drills for the bigger WRs. 

8. Sterling Shepard- He is going to be a guy who a lot of people are going to really like and had one of the best days at the combine with a 4.48 that stood out amongst such a slow class. Also put up 20 reps of the bench press and had a 41-inch vert. Those two numbers give hope that he will be able to play bigger than his height at the next level. 

9. Leonte Carroo- Measuring in at just 6'0 was a little bit disappointing. But the 4.50 forty was a solid number for a 211-pound guy who has shown great hands. Might have flown under-the-radar in a better rookie class, but will be a favorite of many in this underwhelming class and probably get a lot of hype between now and April.

10. Kenneth Dixon- It's hard to figure who will emerge as the 3rd back in this class and I expect that draft position is going to play an even bigger role than normal in how the RB rankings shake out. Dixon is a decent guess as to the eventual #3 for PPR leagues despite the mediocre 4.58 forty-time. He is great as a receiver and a very solid 215 pounds. His testing numbers were solid if unspectacular.

11. CJ Prosise- Had one of the more impressive combines, running a 4.48 at 220 pounds. Played WR his first couple years at Notre Dame so you know he should excel in the passing game. The receiving ability, nice production in 2015 before getting injured and size/speed profile makes him a pretty intriguing guy to keep a close eye on going forward. One of the guys who really jumped up my board this weekend.

12. Devontae Booker- Won't workout until the Utah pro day in late March. Very interested to see what he runs, because he has prototype size at 5'11, 219, great production at Utah and really good hands. 

 
I think #1 is the easy choice and the next 4 are kind of interchangeable.  But here's mine.  2QB ppr rankings though

#1 - Ezekiel Elliott

#2 - Josh Doctson

#3 - Laquan Treadwell 

#4 - Corey Coleman

#5 - Carson Wentz

#6 - Jared Goff

#7 - Derrick Henry

#8 - Michael Thomas

#9 - C.J. Prosise

#10 - Alex Collins 

#11 - Braxton Miller

#12 - Kenneth Dixon

As of right now that's what I have.  But guys that are just outside are Leontee Carroo, Tyler Boyd, Will Fuller, Christian Hackenberg.  I'm kind of conservative when it comes to QB's right now and that will likely change with some bumps or drops depending on situation and draft position.  I don't like having Michael Thomas that high but I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt right now because I'd rather have a WR with his potential then the RB's who I'm not all that impressed with either.  

 
1. Ezekiel Elliot

2. Josh Dotson

3. Laquan Treadwell

4. Corey Coleman

5. Derrick Henry

6. Carson Wentz

 
If you had a guy ranked high prior to being tested but he crushed the Combine, then he 'should' rise but I'm not so sure about some of the 'official' Combine results.

Just wanted to point out something about the 'official' Combine 40 times.

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Matt Miller ‏ @ nfldraftscout    10h 10 hours ago
I'm getting a lot of texts right now from people with screenshots of the 40 clock stopping when players hit the 38 yard line
Matt Miller ‏ @ nfldraftscout    10h 10 hours ago
Look where Darron Lee is and his time is already announced.










Matt Miller ‏ @ nfldraftscout    10h 10 hours ago
So when you ask why NFL teams use their own timers, this is why.
 
If you had a guy ranked high prior to being tested but he crushed the Combine, then he 'should' rise but I'm not so sure about some of the 'official' Combine results.

Just wanted to point out something about the 'official' Combine 40 times.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Matt Miller ‏ @ nfldraftscout    10h 10 hours ago
I'm getting a lot of texts right now from people with screenshots of the 40 clock stopping when players hit the 38 yard line
Matt Miller ‏ @ nfldraftscout    10h 10 hours ago
Look where Darron Lee is and his time is already announced.










Matt Miller ‏ @ nfldraftscout    10h 10 hours ago
So when you ask why NFL teams use their own timers, this is why.
That could be a broad casting error more than an actual timing error. The video might be behind the ticker for whatever reason. I know they were having issues with the picture on Friday.

 
That could be a broad casting error more than an actual timing error. The video might be behind the ticker for whatever reason. I know they were having issues with the picture on Friday.
This would be simple to check.  Backup 4 seconds on your DVR and see if the clock starts before they leave the line.

 
That could be a broad casting error more than an actual timing error. The video might be behind the ticker for whatever reason. I know they were having issues with the picture on Friday.
That makes sense and could account for the discrepancy.  I notice audio isn't synched up on many broadcasts so I can see how a slight delay with the video feed could open the possibility of an error but also can see how anyone who captured a screenshot would be suspicious.

If lasers were used, they could remove the human element so we could have standard times for everyone without the chance of human error.

Good catch on explaining how that could have happened.

 
Why Doctson over the other guys? Simple. 

I like Coleman a lot but his height

I like Treadwell a lot but his combine

I like Doctson a lot.

 
That makes sense and could account for the discrepancy.  I notice audio isn't synched up on many broadcasts so I can see how a slight delay with the video feed could open the possibility of an error but also can see how anyone who captured a screenshot would be suspicious.

If lasers were used, they could remove the human element so we could have standard times for everyone without the chance of human error.

Good catch on explaining how that could have happened.
They had smart cones or smart...something. They're yellow and black pyramid shaped cones. They were there in pics of the first day or so and when they ran the 40's they are nowhere to be found. I saw it and googled wondering what it was. Light (Laser is now a weapon so I guess we don't call weak lasers lasers anymore) is shined between the two and that controls the start and stop. Interrupted light becomes constant to initiate a start(foot in the way), at the finish they interrupt the light beam as they cross the finish line. 

You were right, they should use them and it was there. I don't know what happened.

 
He didn't run the important runs, which was expected, and what few things he did do were below average among wide receivers, which was not.   Whether you take that stuff seriously or not is up to you.  Stats below.

http://www.redcuprebellion.com/2016/2/27/11125918/laremy-tunsil-laquon-treadwell-robert-nkmediche-nfl-combine-40-yard-dash-drills
His numbers where he tested were not high at all, but I don't think anyone was really expecting them to be.  The guy was never billed as a freak athlete.  But they also weren't so low that it would raise specific concerns about him at the next level.  I mean, his vertical and his broad jump were essentially the same as Zeke Elliott's (33 vs. 32.5 and 117" vs. 118").  In other words, he's not testing off the charts by any means but he's a good enough athlete to do what it takes in the NFL for the kind of player he is.  That's a "win".

Plus, there's more to the combine than that and when you watched him do the other drills like the gauntlet and other routes, he easily looked the part and showed why he sets himself apart from other prospects.  I think he dropped 1 ball (1st gauntlet) the entire morning and made it look easy. 

So to me, his combine showed exactly what was expected.  I don't think the combine was a negative for him at all. 

Treadwell's combine

ETA--Maybe you were expecting him to test higher and be a better "athlete".  If so, then that's fair and why I asked to begin with.  To me, the combine is helpful for a few things:

1)  The guys that show it in games -- Make sure they don't have red flag type numbers that make you think they might fail.  This year -- see Alex Collins.

2)  The guys that have questionable production to see what kind of athlete they are and how they compare to others.  This year -- see Braxton Miller.

3)  The small school guys that have relatively small exposure that test off the charts to see if they are just athletes or are real football players.  This year -- see Daniel Lasco.

Otherwise, the combine doesn't help much other than small changes here and there.  I'm not moving D. Henry up or down in my rankings because he's an athletic freak.  We already kinda knew that.  It's nice to see guys you like have a good combine (like Doctson for you), but overall it doesn't help that much.  Similarly, just because a guy isn't at the top doesn't mean he failed the combine.  Now, if Treadwell had put up De'Runnya Wilson type numbers?  Yes, then we'd be having a completely different conversation.

 
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I can't believe people still rank RBs #1 in rookie drafts.  (dynasty).

I don't think any RB coming out this year can possibly be as much a fantasy factor this season as David Johnson was, due to landing spots and competition and Johnson, himself was a terrific steal for those who got him.  The unpredictability, the relative short life spans, the way the league is and limited choice spots, I just couldn't do it these days.  I would have to somehow KNOW that this guy was the next LT or some dynamic guy that can do it all, do it great, and is in the best location he can be to even consider taking a RB that high.

 
I can't believe people still rank RBs #1 in rookie drafts.  (dynasty).
Were you saying that last season when Gurley was coming out?  Most people weren't....

Depends on relative value, which varies class by class.  Wouldn't be shocked if next season an RB is strongly considered for 1.1 as well.

 
I don't get why age matters. 

Seems like a silly criteria.
It's less about projecting a player's career and more about grading them as prospects. The age discussion is not about the added two years of production a younger prospect will get. 

Production at age 20 is worth significantly more than equal production at age 23 in terms of projecting expected future production.

 
Were you saying that last season when Gurley was coming out?  Most people weren't....

Depends on relative value, which varies class by class.  Wouldn't be shocked if next season an RB is strongly considered for 1.1 as well.
Last year I said I thought Gurley was going to be one of the special ones and I understood why he went number one but that's not the important thing here. What's important is understanding that even a guy like Gurley, who most people said was the 2nd coming, likely didn't have much of an impact on winning leagues last year.  There's nothing wrong with that, of course, but the way the NFL has gone in recent years, even when Bell is Bell or David Johnson is hot or Eddie Lacy is having a great season, why would we pay so much for guys that are probably best suited for giving us 3-4 really good years and MAYBE 1-2 difference making years (talking about the kind where a guy truly carries a team)?

Just doesn't seem to be a good idea to pay a Trent Richardson price most years and end up getting...well...Trent Richardson a lot of the time. 

 
I don't get why age matters. 

Seems like a silly criteria.
Sometimes it brings patience. Titans drafted RT Poutasi last year in the third then switched him to Guard. He's only 21. Above someone is pointing out a guy is 24. Poutasi could be cut, traded, etc for allowing a million sacks but instead he's young and could develop. 

I don't want it for FF. There's enough wonder about whether a rookie will produce and if a team will give him enough opportunity. I don't want the NFL team given this excuse to spoon-feed someone I drafted. 

I can't help but think of my own life for comparison. 23 24 feels significantly more mature than 21 and all excited you can legally drink. 

Others will say a 22 year old has 8 years to get to that 30 year wall, but for me if a 24 year old is ready to produce, I'll take the six years right away and worry about the future...in the future. 

I remember David Carr as a very responsible young father entering the draft. If he was in the same draft as Manziel, I'd take him 100 out of 100 times. Neither wound up being all that, just trying to illustrate how 'old' can mean maturity and be a good thing.

 
Depending on league settings, the VBD of having a stud running back can be greater than that of a stud WR.  Positional scarcity has to be weighed against career length, and I don't think there's an easy answer on which way to go.  

 
In general, stronger or weaker top 12(ish) compared to last year and the year before?  How about when compared to next year?

I think it's deeper, but not as top heavy.

 
In general, stronger or weaker top 12(ish) compared to last year and the year before?  How about when compared to next year?

I think it's deeper, but not as top heavy.
This is the worst FF class to come out in a long time.  IMHO, Zeke Elliott is a top 3 player in just about any year class.  After that, Treadwell and Henry are probably the only others that belong in a 1st round of a rookie draft.  If Treadwell ends up running 4.68 or something, that even comes into question.  I would have said Alex Collins is a 1st round FF pick as well, until his jumps at the combine.  If he proves those were a fluke at his pro day, then he's a legit first rounder too.  

 
This is the worst FF class to come out in a long time.  IMHO, Zeke Elliott is a top 3 player in just about any year class.  After that, Treadwell and Henry are probably the only others that belong in a 1st round of a rookie draft.  If Treadwell ends up running 4.68 or something, that even comes into question.  I would have said Alex Collins is a 1st round FF pick as well, until his jumps at the combine.  If he proves those were a fluke at his pro day, then he's a legit first rounder too.  
Thanks for the insight!  I have the 1, 4, and then some picks in the 2nd round of my 10 teamer.  I'm thinking Zeke out of the gate, hope that Treadwell or Henry or Doctson fall to me at 4 (one will have to), and then maybe trade those 2nds for future 1sts.

 
Thanks for the insight!  I have the 1, 4, and then some picks in the 2nd round of my 10 teamer.  I'm thinking Zeke out of the gate, hope that Treadwell or Henry or Doctson fall to me at 4 (one will have to), and then maybe trade those 2nds for future 1sts.
No one is trading ones next year for a 2nd this year. 2017 is perceived to be loaded

Then again i think alot of people were down on the lacy/leveon class and it turned out ok

 
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Call me crazy but in PPR leagues, I'm a buyer of top 10 picks.
Not just ppr.  Treadwell, doctson, Coleman are all physically talented studs.  Boyd catches everything thrown his way and has been beating every kind of coverage around.  3 good qbs.  A bunch of very good wr prospects after that.  Elliot and Henry look like potential franchise rbs.  Booker, that pro size cochise precious guy, and a couple other backs are going to have chances to be drafted into a few good,  immediate starting spots.  It's not an earth shattering class but it's not bad at all and people seem to be selling picks cheap.  

 
In my 12-team, 20 roster spot, dynasty league you have to drop a player to add a player in our rookie draft.

With the 1.10 pick, I'm considering not even dropping anyone.  I don't think anyone worth having will be there.

Outside of the top 4 or 5 guys, they all look like hot garbage to me.

 
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No one is trading ones next year for a 2nd this year. 2017 is perceived to be loaded

Then again i think alot of people were down on the lacy/leveon class and it turned out ok
That's bad groupthink.  I've already gotten a 2017 1st and Kamar Aiken for 2.03.  Good team, lost in the finals this year, so likely a late pick.   I have traded a 2 in each of the last 3 drafts for future 1's throughout various leagues and am sure I will be able to do more this year.

 
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Looking at 2016 vs 2015  (as NFL prospects only)

Cooper, White and Parker are all easily ahead of any WR in this class IMO.  

So overall combined:

1. Gurley

2.  Cooper

3.  Zeke Elliott

4.  Melvin Gordon

5.  Kevin White

6.  DeVante Parker

7.  TJ Yeldon

8.  Derrick Henry

9.  Treadwell

10.  Ameer Abdullah

11.  DGB

12.  Agholor

I think some of those 2016 WRs have a shot (Boyd, Doctson, Coleman), but Agholor was a top 20 NFL pick.  DGB was downgraded quite a bit due to character concerns, and still went top 40.  I'd be surprised if there were more than 2 RBs taken by pick 60 of this draft.  

 
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So last year was a really good draft year. And...?
So was the year before.  

2014:  

1. Sammy Watkins

2.  Mike Evans

3.  Zeke Elliott

4.  Odell Beckham

5.  Brandin Cooks

6.  Jordan Matthews

7.  Carlos Hyde

8.  Derrick Henry

9.  Eric Ebron

10.  Laquon Treadwell

11.  Kelvin Benjamin

12.  Bishop Sankey

 
That's bad groupthink.  I've already gotten a 2017 1st and Kamar Aiken for 2.03.  Good team, lost in the finals this year, so likely a late pick.   I have traded a 2 in each of the last 3 drafts for future 1's throughout various leagues and am sure I will be able to do more this year.
I guess i shouldnt underestimate people making bad trades in various innernet leagues. 

Seems odd to make that trade without knowing who is available. Sure u can project. But not a good move

 
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So was the year before.  

2014:  

1. Sammy Watkins

2.  Mike Evans

3.  Zeke Elliott

4.  Odell Beckham

5.  Brandin Cooks

6.  Jordan Matthews

7.  Carlos Hyde

8.  Derrick Henry

9.  Eric Ebron

10.  Laquon Treadwell

11.  Kelvin Benjamin

12.  Bishop Sankey
I think you're too high on Cooks, Matthews and Hyde.

I like Caroo, Shepard, and a couple backs just as much as those guys.

 
i agree that very, very, very few owners are going to be moving a 2017 1st to get a 2016 2nd.

having typed that, I find that being a contrarian can unlock some value.  This class doesn't look good on paper so far. This is probably the cheapest anybody will be getting a 2016 1st round rookie pick. 1.01-1.12 are still lottery tickets at this stage, but one factor that I don't think is being accounted for is attrition and economics of the NFL. Older players may have a hard time finding work compared to incoming rookies who are potentially much cheaper and offer more long term upside if they can develop.

I think there are some interesting WRs and RBs worth rostering... I only see four players that I would "count on" for 2016 production (Ellion, Henry, Tread, Doctson), but I would move back in to the first if there was someone I like and I'm pretty there will be little demand so the price will be cheaper

 
I think you're too high on Cooks, Matthews and Hyde.

I like Caroo, Shepard, and a couple backs just as much as those guys.
I just threw that list together off the cuff.  Over rated Matthews for sure.  Not so sure about Cooks though.  A lot of people were very high on him going to the Saints as a top 20 pick. IMO Hyde and Henry are pretty much a wash as NFL prospects go.  Should go at a similar place in the NFL draft.  

I respect the work you do Andy, but from what I've seen of this 2016 class so far,  it just doesn't stack up well to the previous two for sure.  

 
I'll agree that the top talent doesn't match up but there's still a lot of goodness that would be mid to late first value in any year.

 
I guess i shouldnt underestimate people making bad trades in various innernet leagues. 

Seems odd to make that trade without knowing who is available. Sure u can project. But not a good move
Or just don't assume you know everything about every league.  Plenty of people will pay a moderate next-year tax to get their toy this year.  It may be a tad early, but we've known all of the draft entrants for quite a while now.  It's a simple exercise to say "I know pick 15 will net me one of these 15 guys" so your worst-case is pretty identifiable.  The cost of getting picks now is considerably less than it will be the day before the league's rookie draft so if you like 15 guys now it's hardly a "bad trade" to get it done early.

 
Bri said:
Sometimes it brings patience. Titans drafted RT Poutasi last year in the third then switched him to Guard. He's only 21. Above someone is pointing out a guy is 24. Poutasi could be cut, traded, etc for allowing a million sacks but instead he's young and could develop. 

I don't want it for FF. There's enough wonder about whether a rookie will produce and if a team will give him enough opportunity. I don't want the NFL team given this excuse to spoon-feed someone I drafted. 

I can't help but think of my own life for comparison. 23 24 feels significantly more mature than 21 and all excited you can legally drink. 

Others will say a 22 year old has 8 years to get to that 30 year wall, but for me if a 24 year old is ready to produce, I'll take the six years right away and worry about the future...in the future. 

I remember David Carr as a very responsible young father entering the draft. If he was in the same draft as Manziel, I'd take him 100 out of 100 times. Neither wound up being all that, just trying to illustrate how 'old' can mean maturity and be a good thing.
I really doubt 21 or 24 matters even a tiny bit for a team when deciding to cut someone. Either way they are done their rookie contracts before they are 30. Only difference it makes is you can hope a 21 can still improve but by the time a guy hits 24 he's going to be near his ceiling.

 
It's certainly not the most important criteria, but fantasy potential being equal, I'd prefer the guy who is 2.5 years younger(Treadwell) in a dynasty league.


If you're discounting Doctson due to age, then Michael Thomas/Sterling Sheperd/Braxton Miller all are discounted too. All four of those players are 23 before the 2016 season begins.

 
I think there's also a bit of draft fatigue. People should be excited about Zeke but aren't because of Gurley. Henry seems to be everyone's favourite whipping boy this year. 

Coleman is also going under the radar. I would say if they came out in the same class there would be a 50/50 split on who was better. Doctson is also taking a HUGE knock because of his age and because he wasn't as tall as people thought. He did very well at the combine and his draft breakdowns look like highlight tapes.  Treadwell lost a lot of steam at the combine but it's not like Hopkins tore it up. 

The past that there's lots of guys who were just as interesting as Devonte Freeman or Landry were. Collins/Dixon/Marshall/Williams and maybe a couple more. WRs there's Fuller, Cajuste, Demarcus Robinson later. 

This is a decent draft. 2014 was special for WR, 2015 had a special player. This year just feels quiet but really it's not that bad. 

 
I really doubt 21 or 24 matters even a tiny bit for a team when deciding to cut someone. Either way they are done their rookie contracts before they are 30. Only difference it makes is you can hope a 21 can still improve but by the time a guy hits 24 he's going to be near his ceiling.
Sorry but it seems you contradicted yourself

 

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