Ilov80s
Footballguy
People are wrong a lot. It’s easy to be fooled watching movies? Also I want to note that unlike Peterson, Hall is a high end pass catcher. He’s basically the RB prospect you draw up in a lab.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
RB Breece Hall, NYJ (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
rockaction
Footballguy
Wow. Wow wow wow. Someone is not on the side of the film grinders. Quants unite!Ilov80s said:
rockaction
Footballguy
Hall scored 9th out of 1,519 RBs since 1987 in Relative Athletic Score, a measure of of many identifiable and quantifiable characteristics.
That's 1.01.
That's 1.01.
rockaction
Footballguy
Thanks, Faust, for backing that up with a citation, which I obviously neglected. That's exactly the Tweet I was copying from, though.
Faust
MVP
Not a worry! I was going to post that tweet into this thread but you beat me to it. I was having something to eat.
I like Walker a little more than Hall based on film. Any if the top RBs would be a major upgrade for Miami. But, the history of SF with RBs makes me think Grier and McDaniel wait until later in the draft. OTOH, I think Miami may have been scooped in the 2 recent drafts with Baltimore taking Dobbins just before their 2020 pick, and DEN trading up to get J Williams in 2021. There's lots of moving pieces in a draft.zamboni said:
zamboni
Footballguy
Good points. I can see Hall more because he seems more like a 3-down back than Walker, unless they go with a Duke Johnson or some other guy for 3rd down duties.
rockaction
Footballguy
I was going to ask him if “androids dream of electric eggs,” but I didn’t want him to take it the wrong way. You’ve opened that door now.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I've always liked having a 3 down back that might get a drive off once in a while as opposed to shuffling rbs in and out based on down and distance. Having one complete rb gives you the advantage of not telegraphing plays as much plus more of a groove is possible. Walker might also be that guy but Breece seems like one for sure. As always, location... location.
Last edited by a moderator:
Faust
MVP
Last edited by a moderator:
Faust
MVP
https://twitter.com/nextgenstats/status/1499928317868351491?s=21
https://twitter.com/nextgenstats/status/1500188997611573248?s=21Next Gen Stats @NextGenStats
Breece Hall by the Numbers
Production: 89
» 4.39 forty, 40" vertical, 10'6" broad jump
#NextGenScores
rockaction
Footballguy
And everybody wants to hate the combine.
Neutral field - check
Timed measurements - check
Ceteris paribus with your competition - check
Thing is awesome in its egalitarianism. Strong just leapt into the third or fourth, I'll bet.
Except it is not playing football.......which is the most important thing.
Numbers are great and pieces of info but that's all they are.
ETA: I still think they should do all the combine drills in full pads. That would add a bit more meaning to them.
Last edited by a moderator:
rockaction
Footballguy
It's not a football game. It simply acts as more information. In a system where the scouting must take place on non-level playing fields, it becomes important because of all things held constant. You think a pro scout and the NFL would go through this if it weren't that? Pomp and circumstance is one thing, but these guys take it lethally seriously.
Are you an athlete at these drills? Let's see it.
Still love it. It's very much a part of football and the drills are football drills. You'll see 'em anywhere on a football field.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I like the combine for identifying outliers. Like this one. A couple others on the other end of the other tail, too. I am wondering about SuperFlex implications. I just have not looked at rookie QBs yet other than I get the feeling Willis will be vying for Hall here for 1.01 in SF format. I hold 1.02 and 1.03 and 1.04 in one or another league (and 1.02 & 1.05 in another) and I just get the feeling it is going to be really interesting how all the dominoes fall in these drafts. Could end up with WR1 at like 1.05 or 1.06.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I am not sure who specifically you have been listening to.
However there is a bit of group think going on here and a lot of these folks are afraid to stand out from the crowd.
The combine numbers are not everything. however speed is definitely there for this guy.
Forming an opinion by watching a player can be influenced by a lot of things. Hall seems to be a patient RB and perhaps this part of his play style causes some to think he lacks burst or explosiveness? Whereas if you think about this logically, the RB would be less willing to wait for blocks to develop if they did not trust their burst and acceleration to get to top speed quickly enough when they do hit the crease. Coaches would tell them to stop playing that way if it wasn't working.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I am not totally serious, there is of course a lot of benefit from watching them play. However, things like speed and even size can be quite deceiving. We see this with lots of players every year.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Only problem with adding pads is that it would immediately make all historic combine data meaningless. It's just a tool to compare players. That Baylor WR almost broke the 40 record but nobody serious is running around saying he's some great prospect. The reason this is so exciting for Hall is that he was already a top prospect who's limiting reactant was thought to be his athleticism. We now know that it's actually a strength of his. It's like going on a date with a model, having low expectations for their personality and then discovering that they are the coolest, funniest person you have ever met.
Marauder
Footballguy
Right, but this is not a Mike Mamula situation where he's just a workout warrier. Hall was extremely productive in college. You add his athleticism to his college tape and, well I'm not sure what else you need to see.
I don't rhink the historical aspect is all that meaningful. It's more important what these guys do in pads for NFL success. They would get a better indication if all drills were done it pads. You gotta start somewhere.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I could not disagree more. The only reason the combine data matters at all is because it allows us to make comparisons to previous prospects.
Last edited by a moderator:
To me there is so much more to being successful in the NFL than combine numbers. Sure a guy is fast or can jump but that by itself is not really meaningful for actually playing the game. So comparing a guy that ran 4.4 vs a guy that ran 4.7 doesn't tell me if they will be a successful NFL player so historically what does it matter? There have been studs at each time and busts at each time. What does the comparison really tell you?
rockaction
Footballguy
The combine isn't predictive, really. It's not sticky. But it does give you the chance to weed out those that don't belong. You can use combine numbers combined with height and weight to run regressions on which ranges show success in the NFL and which don't. It's another arrow in your quiver.
A lot. You can certainly find successful ranges of timing and other measurements and run regressions that show what correlates with success. For example, I'd invite you to find me all of the successful receivers under 5'9" that have played or are playing in the NFL and their level of success as an aggregate or percentage number of the overall WRs in the NFL. When you realize that almost all the guys that have success are taller than that, you can start to safely predict that individual cases must be outliers and special if they are to be under 5'9". You have a firmer grasp then of who to look at, who to narrow further analysis down to.
And using 4.7 as an example is probably not what you want. The modern cut-off for receivers is around a 4.56 and for running backs is around a 4.64. You won't see many guys get taken with numbers worse than that. At least, they won't have success in the NFL. The only guy that can even be close to sub-par athlete to make it the past bunch of years has been Devin Singletary of the Bills, who manages, like Ahmad Bradshaw and Arian Foster, to defy their testing numbers and have a lot of success in the NFL. And Singletary has guys nipping at his heels and Buffalo in position to draft another RB because of his lack of athleticism.
Teams want athletes because stuff like intuition, will, and desire don't really get it done in the pros unless you're at some sort of baseline with respect to athleticism.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
You are looking at this up close when the combine and data is about looking at things from really far away. The 6000 foot view.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Interesting back and forth here.
I think Ahmad Bradshaw had some very good combine 3 cone (97 percentile) and shuttle numbers (88 percentile) although unimpressive or poor metrics in other drills.
Of course the RB are not doing these drills that Bradshaw was successful in now days. So it would be hard to find a player like him from the combine now.
I think Ahmad Bradshaw had some very good combine 3 cone (97 percentile) and shuttle numbers (88 percentile) although unimpressive or poor metrics in other drills.
Of course the RB are not doing these drills that Bradshaw was successful in now days. So it would be hard to find a player like him from the combine now.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
This class (probably) doesn’t have an elite level RB or WR but it’s much better than what “groupthink” has turned it into.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Why would being in pads make any difference- do they weigh people down significantly? I don’t think it would make any difference at all and it would just look silly.
These are just drills to test some level of athleticism and everyone is on a level playing field already.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
You’re arguing against no one. I don’t think anyone disagrees with this.
Of course there’s more to playing football than just speed - but do you think speed doesn’t matter at all?
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Have you ever worn pads? It makes a difference.
Also I think they should do each drill 15 times in a row to check some endurance.
The combine IS something of significance, but it could be a lot better.
Then again the players wouldn't wanna do all that, so its whatever
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I know it makes a difference, but I’m saying it’s all relative. No player is getting slowed down more than another because he’s wearing pads. So ultimately it doesn’t matter relatively speaking.
Blick
Footballguy
I think that the weak QB class is weighing on the groupthink. Especially with the number of superflex leagues out there.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Yes, probably true. I usually don’t place much weight on rookie QBs generally, so that doesn’t weigh in much here.
It’s funny because I think this class is better than last year (except there’s no Chase or Pittman) - and last years was propped up by the QB class.
They have loads of GPS data for that. I think Ilov80's is spot on and that's what I've heard a lot of scouts say why they keep doing the same drills at the combine which is historical marker.
I do think players are affected differently by the pads. Its not going to be a flat .05 seconds across the board. It will have differing affects to the times.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Doesn’t really seem logical but I can’t say for sure.
Bottom line all of these measurements are just a piece to puzzle - whether it’s a corner piece or a random middle piece is up to each of us.
Winning IS Everything
Footballguy
Having the 1.1 this year I have had the following mindsets as time goes by:
2020 until late college 2021 season: Breece Hall would be my pick 1.1 this year
End of 2021 college season after reviewing measurables and youtube clips: Kenneth Walker took the lead with just silly highlights with Breece a close 2nd
After the combine: Breece solidly takes the 1.1 for me as his athletic rating is amazing
after NFL draft: TBD based on landing spots, but leaning Hall at 1.1
I never bought the Spiller hype, and the combine did nothing to change that. If Walker had two years of that top production and shown receiving chops more it might be a different story, but if Hall truly turns out to be a better David Montgomery, sign me up.
2020 until late college 2021 season: Breece Hall would be my pick 1.1 this year
End of 2021 college season after reviewing measurables and youtube clips: Kenneth Walker took the lead with just silly highlights with Breece a close 2nd
After the combine: Breece solidly takes the 1.1 for me as his athletic rating is amazing
after NFL draft: TBD based on landing spots, but leaning Hall at 1.1
I never bought the Spiller hype, and the combine did nothing to change that. If Walker had two years of that top production and shown receiving chops more it might be a different story, but if Hall truly turns out to be a better David Montgomery, sign me up.
zamboni
Footballguy
The hype train seems to be getting out of control for Hall. He certainly seems to have the talent, but given the devaluation of RBs across the league, he could very well end up behind a young already proven RB and just become of the best handcuffs in the game.
It's been said ad nauseum, but the landing spot for him is going to be huge.
It's been said ad nauseum, but the landing spot for him is going to be huge.
Winning IS Everything
Footballguy
Good point about RB devaluation and the handcuff scenario. If Hall and Walker fall into that category, I look to trade the 1.1 or maybe go WR.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I am kinda hoping Hall goes to a team with a current high end RB that will kill his 2022 outlook, and then I can maybe grab him around 4 or 5.
Stranger things have happened.
Similar threads
