RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (2 Viewers)

[Anarchy99]

I really don't have anything substantive to add, but I am curious how often a team was in the following situation:

- Had RUNNING BACK X get 1166 YS / 11 TD, then retained that guy and . . .
- Drafted RUNNING BACK Y the next year, who produced 1174 YFS / 4 TD (meaning RB's X + Y accounted for essentially 2000 YFS / 12), then brought BOTH guys back . . .
- And spent the #8 pick in the draft on a RB.

Maybe Bijan will be all that and a bag of chips, but for a team that's ranked Bottom 5 in the league in points against and / or yardage allowed the past 5 years (and 3 of the 5 seasons before that), one has to wonder if maybe RB hasn't been the biggest need or concern in how best to turn things around in Hotlanta.

 

[Payne]

He is not "overrated" but he is being drafted too high. Sure, Smith loves to run the ball, but he has TWO guys that can do it. Smith himself said they may ride the hot hand. They are not going to win anything this year. Why ride this horse into the ground his rookie year? Makes no sense.

I would also draft him with caution.

Because Arthur Smith isn't guaranteed to have a job next year. He's going to ride whichever players give him the best chance to win the most games. It's the only way Smith can try to secure his own future.

Completely understand. But Smith can run TWO running backs into the ground.

So Walker and ETN take ADP drops because their teams drafted a RB, but we are to forget Atlanta already has a 1,000 yard rusher on their team?

I'm not saying Bijon isn't good. I am saying his ADP, to me, is too high. We know Barkley and Chubb are the guys. We don't know for sure Bijon will get that type of workload.

 

[ChicoCat]

He is not "overrated" but he is being drafted too high. Sure, Smith loves to run the ball, but he has TWO guys that can do it. Smith himself said they may ride the hot hand. They are not going to win anything this year. Why ride this horse into the ground his rookie year? Makes no sense.

I would also draft him with caution.

Why couldn't they win that division?

 

[Chaka]

He is not "overrated" but he is being drafted too high. Sure, Smith loves to run the ball, but he has TWO guys that can do it. Smith himself said they may ride the hot hand. They are not going to win anything this year. Why ride this horse into the ground his rookie year? Makes no sense.

I would also draft him with caution.

Because Arthur Smith isn't guaranteed to have a job next year. He's going to ride whichever players give him the best chance to win the most games. It's the only way Smith can try to secure his own future.

Completely understand. But Smith can run TWO running backs into the ground.

So Walker and ETN take ADP drops because their teams drafted a RB, but we are to forget Atlanta already has a 1,000 yard rusher on their team?

I'm not saying Bijon isn't good. I am saying his ADP, to me, is too high. We know Barkley and Chubb are the guys. We don't know for sure Bijon will get that type of workload.

Using Walker and Etienne as the comps make Allegier the guy who should be worried about his touches. And there is a huge difference between #8 & #s 52 & 88.

It will be a big surprise if Bijan isn't in the neighborhood of 70% of RB touches for the Falcons. The Flacons had 518 rush+targets to RBs last season and 476 the year before, if those numbers hold Bijan only needs a 58%-63% share to hit 300 opportunities. Allegier can still see plenty of action and not change Bijan's status as a RB1.

 

[zamboni]

It's been said up thread, but one would think that a team would not draft an RB at #8, particularly given that it's a very devalued position across the league, and not make that RB the centerpiece of the offense. Anything less than 325 touches by Bijon (health assuming of course) would be a big surprise IMO.

 

[Anarchy99]

It's been said up thread, but one would think that a team would not draft an RB at #8, particularly given that it's a very devalued position across the league, and not make that RB the centerpiece of the offense. Anything less than 325 touches by Bijon (health assuming of course) would be a big surprise IMO.

325 touches isn't easy to get to. 5 guys in 2022, 3 in 2021, and 2 in 2020.

 

[zamboni]

It's been said up thread, but one would think that a team would not draft an RB at #8, particularly given that it's a very devalued position across the league, and not make that RB the centerpiece of the offense. Anything less than 325 touches by Bijon (health assuming of course) would be a big surprise IMO.

325 touches isn't easy to get to. 5 guys in 2022, 3 in 2021, and 2 in 2020.

Agreed, but I think he'll be among the few this year.

 

[TapRackBang]

There's NO way I'm drafting a rookie RB in the first round of my fantasy drafts.
No. Way.

He's proven nothing.

Fair approach and certainly the conservative route - it’s tough to gamble with your first round pick. But if he’s all that - and certainly in the range of outcomes - he can launch your team.

And if he struggles to make top 3 RB (heck, even top 5 RB), then you're in trouble.

There's no floor. It's all upside.

What do you mean by that?

Injury before kickoff week one? That is literally the only way he doesn't have a floor.

What is the logic that suggests Bijan isn't in line for 300+ touches? Third on the depth chart? Allegier? Should those be considered likely concerns?

How many touches do you believe he will reasonably see this season?

The Falcons didn't buy a Cadillac to keep it in the garage.

You're GAMBLING on someone, who has NEVER played in the NFL, to dominate the NFL RB position. His floor, with an ADP in the first round of redrafts means if he doesn't go 1200/10+ he's a bust. Any way you slice it.

If he fails to do so, you're out everything and likely will ruin your season.

Yes, of course opportunity means a lot. That's obvious. What's not obvious is his usage.
You can 'guess' all you want. I'm not sold in Bijan personally. And even if I was, there's no freaking way he's a 1st round pick in redraft IMO.

Way too much risk. He could be Adrian Peterson with hands, but I don't think so.

I'm not here to argue. I get the appeal. He's just priced too expensive for my tastes. If he goes 1600/20, then yes, he was worth it.
That's a lot of gambling IMO. Now, if you took him in the 3rd, different story. He won't ruin your season if he doesn't explode. But if you're skipping the likes of Derrick Henry or Josh Jacobs for him, you're GAMBLING. Simple.

 

[packdog]

There's NO way I'm drafting a rookie RB in the first round of my fantasy drafts.
No. Way.

He's proven nothing.

Fair approach and certainly the conservative route - it’s tough to gamble with your first round pick. But if he’s all that - and certainly in the range of outcomes - he can launch your team.

And if he struggles to make top 3 RB (heck, even top 5 RB), then you're in trouble.

There's no floor. It's all upside.

What do you mean by that?

Injury before kickoff week one? That is literally the only way he doesn't have a floor.

What is the logic that suggests Bijan isn't in line for 300+ touches? Third on the depth chart? Allegier? Should those be considered likely concerns?

How many touches do you believe he will reasonably see this season?

The Falcons didn't buy a Cadillac to keep it in the garage.

You're GAMBLING on someone, who has NEVER played in the NFL, to dominate the NFL RB position. His floor, with an ADP in the first round of redrafts means if he doesn't go 1200/10+ he's a bust. Any way you slice it.

If he fails to do so, you're out everything and likely will ruin your season.

Yes, of course opportunity means a lot. That's obvious. What's not obvious is his usage.
You can 'guess' all you want. I'm not sold in Bijan personally. And even if I was, there's no freaking way he's a 1st round pick in redraft IMO.

Way too much risk. He could be Adrian Peterson with hands, but I don't think so.

I'm not here to argue. I get the appeal. He's just priced too expensive for my tastes. If he goes 1600/20, then yes, he was worth it.
That's a lot of gambling IMO. Now, if you took him in the 3rd, different story. He won't ruin your season if he doesn't explode. But if you're skipping the likes of Derrick Henry or Josh Jacobs for him, you're GAMBLING. Simple.

Good thing gambling and fantasy go hand in hand. I don't mind taking a shot on Bijan over taking a shot on an aging rb with a lot of tread or the touch leader from the previous season who currently is a no show. Those guys carry their own risk and might not be as safe a place to set your chips as you think

 

[Grid71]

There's NO way I'm drafting a rookie RB in the first round of my fantasy drafts.
No. Way.

He's proven nothing.

Fair approach and certainly the conservative route - it’s tough to gamble with your first round pick. But if he’s all that - and certainly in the range of outcomes - he can launch your team.

And if he struggles to make top 3 RB (heck, even top 5 RB), then you're in trouble.

There's no floor. It's all upside.

What do you mean by that?

Injury before kickoff week one? That is literally the only way he doesn't have a floor.

What is the logic that suggests Bijan isn't in line for 300+ touches? Third on the depth chart? Allegier? Should those be considered likely concerns?

How many touches do you believe he will reasonably see this season?

The Falcons didn't buy a Cadillac to keep it in the garage.

You're GAMBLING on someone, who has NEVER played in the NFL, to dominate the NFL RB position. His floor, with an ADP in the first round of redrafts means if he doesn't go 1200/10+ he's a bust. Any way you slice it.

If he fails to do so, you're out everything and likely will ruin your season.

Yes, of course opportunity means a lot. That's obvious. What's not obvious is his usage.
You can 'guess' all you want. I'm not sold in Bijan personally. And even if I was, there's no freaking way he's a 1st round pick in redraft IMO.

Way too much risk. He could be Adrian Peterson with hands, but I don't think so.

I'm not here to argue. I get the appeal. He's just priced too expensive for my tastes. If he goes 1600/20, then yes, he was worth it.
That's a lot of gambling IMO. Now, if you took him in the 3rd, different story. He won't ruin your season if he doesn't explode. But if you're skipping the likes of Derrick Henry or Josh Jacobs for him, you're GAMBLING. Simple.

Drafted over 100 (12 team) best ball teams on underdog in July/Aug. There hasn't been a single draft where Henry or Jacobs was selected before Bijan. I've drafted Bijan in the first and Jacobs in the 3rd several times.

I think Jacobs threat to hold out for a new deal has pushed him down the board. King Henry is great but on the verge of 30. Fear of a drop in production has him going in the 2nd consistently. If Jacobs was 100% committed to playing for a contract this season, I think he'd be an easy 1st round selection with a high probability of a top 5 finish.

 

[Chaka]

It's been said up thread, but one would think that a team would not draft an RB at #8, particularly given that it's a very devalued position across the league, and not make that RB the centerpiece of the offense. Anything less than 325 touches by Bijon (health assuming of course) would be a big surprise IMO.

325 touches isn't easy to get to. 5 guys in 2022, 3 in 2021, and 2 in 2020.

Agreed but there are a ton of factors that go into why a RB does or does not achieve that arbitrary number (BTW: my arbitrary number in this thread has been 300). But it isn't really about whether or not a specific RB will actually achieve 325, it's how clear is their path to 325?

Everyone agrees McCaffrey and Henry have clear paths to that amount of usage, whether or not they get there is a different story.

Personally, I see McCaffrey, Chubb, Henry & Saquon having very clear paths to that kind of volume and I put Bijan right behind them. Factoring in injury is why I would bump Bijan over McCaffrey & Henry vis-a-vis the potential of hitting 325 touches. Ekeler is an interesting case because more than the others he seems to be target dependent and I am not sure Moore's offense will favor targeting the RB as much as Lombardi's did.

 

[Chaka]

There's NO way I'm drafting a rookie RB in the first round of my fantasy drafts.
No. Way.

He's proven nothing.

Fair approach and certainly the conservative route - it’s tough to gamble with your first round pick. But if he’s all that - and certainly in the range of outcomes - he can launch your team.

And if he struggles to make top 3 RB (heck, even top 5 RB), then you're in trouble.

There's no floor. It's all upside.

What do you mean by that?

Injury before kickoff week one? That is literally the only way he doesn't have a floor.

What is the logic that suggests Bijan isn't in line for 300+ touches? Third on the depth chart? Allegier? Should those be considered likely concerns?

How many touches do you believe he will reasonably see this season?

The Falcons didn't buy a Cadillac to keep it in the garage.

You're GAMBLING on someone, who has NEVER played in the NFL, to dominate the NFL RB position. His floor, with an ADP in the first round of redrafts means if he doesn't go 1200/10+ he's a bust. Any way you slice it.

If he fails to do so, you're out everything and likely will ruin your season.

Yes, of course opportunity means a lot. That's obvious. What's not obvious is his usage.
You can 'guess' all you want. I'm not sold in Bijan personally. And even if I was, there's no freaking way he's a 1st round pick in redraft IMO.

Way too much risk. He could be Adrian Peterson with hands, but I don't think so.

I'm not here to argue. I get the appeal. He's just priced too expensive for my tastes. If he goes 1600/20, then yes, he was worth it.
That's a lot of gambling IMO. Now, if you took him in the 3rd, different story. He won't ruin your season if he doesn't explode. But if you're skipping the likes of Derrick Henry or Josh Jacobs for him, you're GAMBLING. Simple.

Sure, just like I'm gambling on Christian McCaffrey or Derrick Henry to be available for 17 games and not lose a step. The history of rookie RBs makes the gamble on rookie RBs one of the safer options in fantasy football. Just look at the top RB drafted over the last 7-10 years and how well they have performed relative to NFL draft position.

Bijan is as safe of a gamble as any first round RB.

 

[Chaka]

Jacobs isn't even on my redraft radar ATM and even if he signs his tender today I am heavily discounting his potential production. Unhappy NFL RBs lead to unhappy fantasy managers.

 

[LawFitz]

I don't blame anyone for taking Bijon over Henry or Jacobs this year, given age and holdout situations. But some of the bolded below have me perplexed... It would be very hard for me to take an unproven elite player over the bolded proven elites. Jacobs would be a part of this too, if he were signed and happy.

1. Justin JeffersonWR 1.1 Show Trend » 13 207 284.20
2. Christian McCaffreyRB 1.2 Show Trend » 9 226 238.35
3. Ja'Marr ChaseWR 1.3 Show Trend » 7 202 266.85
4. Tyreek HillWR 1.4 Show Trend » 10 187 262.15
5. Austin EkelerRB 1.5 Show Trend » 5 221 244.75
6. Travis KelceTE 1.6 Show Trend » 10 168 226.70
7. Cooper KuppWR 1.7 Show Trend » 10 185 259.95
8. Bijan RobinsonRB 1.8 Show Trend » 11 217 240.85
9. Nick ChubbRB 1.9 Show Trend » 5 228 242.85
10. Stefon DiggsWR 1.10 Show Trend » 13 179 246.25
11. Saquon BarkleyRB 1.11 Show Trend » 13 210 243.45
12. A.J. BrownWR 1.12 Show Trend » 10 186 226.30
13. CeeDee LambWR 2.1 Show Trend » 7 173 236.30
14. Tony PollardRB 2.2 Show Trend » 7 200 236.00
15. Derrick HenryRB 2.3 Show Trend » 7 221 243.75
16. Amon-Ra St. BrownWR 2.4 Show Trend » 9 153 231.25
17. Davante AdamsWR 2.5 Show Trend » 13 177 229.15
18. Patrick MahomesQB 2.6 Show Trend » 10 378 374.40
19. Garrett WilsonWR 2.7 Show Trend » 7 150 215.70
20. Jaylen WaddleWR 2.8 Show Trend » 10 158 202.60

 

[BobbyLayne]

This might be the cheapest you ever get Bijan in redraft [for awhile.] I'd say he's the favorite to be the 1.01 next year.

 

[Chaos34]

This might be the cheapest you ever get Bijan in redraft [for awhile.] I'd say he's the favorite to be the 1.01 next year.

This made me check MHO to see where you are in the draft order. I'm not happy.

 

[Loipz]

This might be the cheapest you ever get Bijan in redraft [for awhile.] I'd say he's the favorite to be the 1.01 next year.

And the other top rbs are pretty old so if he lives up to the hype he could be that for some time

 

[kyoun1e]

I don't blame anyone for taking Bijon over Henry or Jacobs this year, given age and holdout situations. But some of the bolded below have me perplexed... It would be very hard for me to take an unproven elite player over the bolded proven elites. Jacobs would be a part of this too, if he were signed and happy.

1. Justin JeffersonWR 1.1 Show Trend » 13 207 284.20
2. Christian McCaffreyRB 1.2 Show Trend » 9 226 238.35
3. Ja'Marr ChaseWR 1.3 Show Trend » 7 202 266.85
4. Tyreek HillWR 1.4 Show Trend » 10 187 262.15
5. Austin EkelerRB 1.5 Show Trend » 5 221 244.75
6. Travis KelceTE 1.6 Show Trend » 10 168 226.70
7. Cooper KuppWR 1.7 Show Trend » 10 185 259.95
8. Bijan RobinsonRB 1.8 Show Trend » 11 217 240.85

Have the 7th pick in a 12 team PPR and while I'm drooling over Bijan, I'm having a hard time thinking I'd pull the trigger over those first heavenly seven.

Kupp could be the only one he leapfrogs if there are rumblings of that hammy lingering.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I don't blame anyone for taking Bijon over Henry or Jacobs this year, given age and holdout situations. But some of the bolded below have me perplexed... It would be very hard for me to take an unproven elite player over the bolded proven elites. Jacobs would be a part of this too, if he were signed and happy.

1. Justin JeffersonWR 1.1 Show Trend » 13 207 284.20
2. Christian McCaffreyRB 1.2 Show Trend » 9 226 238.35
3. Ja'Marr ChaseWR 1.3 Show Trend » 7 202 266.85
4. Tyreek HillWR 1.4 Show Trend » 10 187 262.15
5. Austin EkelerRB 1.5 Show Trend » 5 221 244.75
6. Travis KelceTE 1.6 Show Trend » 10 168 226.70
7. Cooper KuppWR 1.7 Show Trend » 10 185 259.95
8. Bijan RobinsonRB 1.8 Show Trend » 11 217 240.85

Have the 7th pick in a 12 team PPR and while I'm drooling over Bijan, I'm having a hard time thinking I'd pull the trigger over those first heavenly seven.

Kupp could be the only one he leapfrogs if there are rumblings of that hammy lingering.

To me it depends on your build. 1.07/2.08 typically results in a tier drop at whichever position you don't take.

As such, it could well come down to who goes 1-6 - if there's an early run on WR & JJ, Chase & Kupp go with Kelce, CMC & Eke (something I've seen in several drafts now) then you're choosing between Bijan & Hill.

In that instance I lean Bijan - because while I do like Hill, I believe his floor is lower (though he has a higher ceiling) - I don't love starting my draft with a volatile player. And the Tua concussion (or Hill off-field knucklehead) concerns are real.

If it's Kupp, I also agree that maybe it's Bijan - depends how you feel about the Rams.

It it's Kelce, I probably take Bijan and let someone else do the TE build. If it's not TE-P, I don't love it, even if Kelce gives you an advantage. You're also committing to a 2nd & 3rd round WR/RB or RB/WR, with a drop-off at both compared to RB/WR 1st round builds.

It's a difficult choice, I definitely agree about that.

 

[Chaka]

Bijan>>> Kupp all day everyday

 

[LionOfGosforth]

I don't blame anyone for taking Bijon over Henry or Jacobs this year, given age and holdout situations. But some of the bolded below have me perplexed... It would be very hard for me to take an unproven elite player over the bolded proven elites. Jacobs would be a part of this too, if he were signed and happy.

1. Justin JeffersonWR 1.1 Show Trend » 13 207 284.20
2. Christian McCaffreyRB 1.2 Show Trend » 9 226 238.35
3. Ja'Marr ChaseWR 1.3 Show Trend » 7 202 266.85
4. Tyreek HillWR 1.4 Show Trend » 10 187 262.15
5. Austin EkelerRB 1.5 Show Trend » 5 221 244.75
6. Travis KelceTE 1.6 Show Trend » 10 168 226.70
7. Cooper KuppWR 1.7 Show Trend » 10 185 259.95
8. Bijan RobinsonRB 1.8 Show Trend » 11 217 240.85

Have the 7th pick in a 12 team PPR and while I'm drooling over Bijan, I'm having a hard time thinking I'd pull the trigger over those first heavenly seven.

Kupp could be the only one he leapfrogs if there are rumblings of that hammy lingering.

To me it depends on your build. 1.07/2.08 typically results in a tier drop at whichever position you don't take.

As such, it could well come down to who goes 1-6 - if there's an early run on WR & JJ, Chase & Kupp go with Kelce, CMC & Eke (something I've seen in several drafts now) then you're choosing between Bijan & Hill.

In that instance I lean Bijan - because while I do like Hill, I believe his floor is lower (though he has a higher ceiling) - I don't love starting my draft with a volatile player. And the Tua concussion (or Hill off-field knucklehead) concerns are real.

If it's Kupp, I also agree that maybe it's Bijan - depends how you feel about the Rams.

It it's Kelce, I probably take Bijan and let someone else do the TE build. If it's not TE-P, I don't love it, even if Kelce gives you an advantage. You're also committing to a 2nd & 3rd round WR/RB or RB/WR, with a drop-off at both compared to RB/WR 1st round builds.

It's a difficult choice, I definitely agree about that.

I have such a hard time personally picking Bijan before Saquon or Chubb,, at least in standard (don't ever play PPR and don't know anyone who does though it seems prevalent everywhere). I think in standard scoring I have Robinson around pick 7.

 

[SoBeDad]

-Had RUNNING BACK X get 1166 YS / 11 TD, then retained that guy and . . .
- Drafted RUNNING BACK Y the next year, who produced 1174 YFS / 4 TD (meaning RB's X + Y accounted for essentially 2000 YFS / 12), then brought BOTH guys back . . .
- And spent the #8 pick in the draft on a RB.

And RB X wasn't just a volume guy based on his PFF grade of 86.7. In the games I saw, Allgeir was a smash mouth style RB, which I thought is what the coach wanted. He's not in Robinson's class as a receiver but he caught 16 of 17 targets. He should get some GL carries. If ATL wanted more explosive plays, someone like Achane could've been an option later.

 

[Chaka]

I don't blame anyone for taking Bijon over Henry or Jacobs this year, given age and holdout situations. But some of the bolded below have me perplexed... It would be very hard for me to take an unproven elite player over the bolded proven elites. Jacobs would be a part of this too, if he were signed and happy.

1. Justin JeffersonWR 1.1 Show Trend » 13 207 284.20
2. Christian McCaffreyRB 1.2 Show Trend » 9 226 238.35
3. Ja'Marr ChaseWR 1.3 Show Trend » 7 202 266.85
4. Tyreek HillWR 1.4 Show Trend » 10 187 262.15
5. Austin EkelerRB 1.5 Show Trend » 5 221 244.75
6. Travis KelceTE 1.6 Show Trend » 10 168 226.70
7. Cooper KuppWR 1.7 Show Trend » 10 185 259.95
8. Bijan RobinsonRB 1.8 Show Trend » 11 217 240.85

Have the 7th pick in a 12 team PPR and while I'm drooling over Bijan, I'm having a hard time thinking I'd pull the trigger over those first heavenly seven.

Kupp could be the only one he leapfrogs if there are rumblings of that hammy lingering.

To me it depends on your build. 1.07/2.08 typically results in a tier drop at whichever position you don't take.

As such, it could well come down to who goes 1-6 - if there's an early run on WR & JJ, Chase & Kupp go with Kelce, CMC & Eke (something I've seen in several drafts now) then you're choosing between Bijan & Hill.

In that instance I lean Bijan - because while I do like Hill, I believe his floor is lower (though he has a higher ceiling) - I don't love starting my draft with a volatile player. And the Tua concussion (or Hill off-field knucklehead) concerns are real.

If it's Kupp, I also agree that maybe it's Bijan - depends how you feel about the Rams.

It it's Kelce, I probably take Bijan and let someone else do the TE build. If it's not TE-P, I don't love it, even if Kelce gives you an advantage. You're also committing to a 2nd & 3rd round WR/RB or RB/WR, with a drop-off at both compared to RB/WR 1st round builds.

It's a difficult choice, I definitely agree about that.

I have such a hard time personally picking Bijan before Saquon or Chubb,, at least in standard (don't ever play PPR and don't know anyone who does though it seems prevalent everywhere). I think in standard scoring I have Robinson around pick 7.

I know it defies conventional wisdom but I have Chubb as my #1 RB overall and I am close to putting Saquon as my #2.

For me that's where it gets a lot tougher between McCaffrey, Ekeler, Henry, Bijan & probably Pollard.

Again, I understand what conventional wisdom says but the next time the top seven RBs by ADP finish the season as the top seven RBs will be the first time.

 

[Goooals]

There are a lot of great comments on this thread. IMO, you are not getting any value for any player drafted in the first round. You don't necessarily win a league with your first round pick, but you can definitely lose. I don't care so much whether your draft 1.03 or 1.11, you are trying to retain first round value for the pick. With Bijan, his range varies depending on PPR, non-ppr, Superflex, etc. My real question is whether or not we think he will live up to the hype that we, as fantasy drafter, will be taking him. In a non-ppr for example, he is going 4th. That's over Barkley, Henry, etc. In a PPR, it's down farther.

Whose has a crystal ball to see if we go with the known quantity (Barkley) or anyone else over him. Even if we do, a player needs to survive all the elements of playing in the brutal NFL league.

 

[Largent]

There's NO way I'm drafting a rookie RB in the first round of my fantasy drafts.
No. Way.

He's proven nothing.

Fair approach and certainly the conservative route - it’s tough to gamble with your first round pick. But if he’s all that - and certainly in the range of outcomes - he can launch your team.

And if he struggles to make top 3 RB (heck, even top 5 RB), then you're in trouble.

There's no floor. It's all upside.

What do you mean by that?

Injury before kickoff week one? That is literally the only way he doesn't have a floor.

What is the logic that suggests Bijan isn't in line for 300+ touches? Third on the depth chart? Allegier? Should those be considered likely concerns?

How many touches do you believe he will reasonably see this season?

The Falcons didn't buy a Cadillac to keep it in the garage.

You're GAMBLING on someone, who has NEVER played in the NFL, to dominate the NFL RB position. His floor, with an ADP in the first round of redrafts means if he doesn't go 1200/10+ he's a bust. Any way you slice it.

If he fails to do so, you're out everything and likely will ruin your season.

Yes, of course opportunity means a lot. That's obvious. What's not obvious is his usage.
You can 'guess' all you want. I'm not sold in Bijan personally. And even if I was, there's no freaking way he's a 1st round pick in redraft IMO.

Way too much risk. He could be Adrian Peterson with hands, but I don't think so.

I'm not here to argue. I get the appeal. He's just priced too expensive for my tastes. If he goes 1600/20, then yes, he was worth it.
That's a lot of gambling IMO. Now, if you took him in the 3rd, different story. He won't ruin your season if he doesn't explode. But if you're skipping the likes of Derrick Henry or Josh Jacobs for him, you're GAMBLING. Simple.

It's kinda fun to have the most talented RB to come out of college in several years and into a perfect situation/team. But hey, take the guys with the high mileage cuz they've been around the block a few times.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

But if you're skipping the likes of Derrick Henry or Josh Jacobs for him, you're GAMBLING. Simple.

You talk about risk for Robinson and then bring up two guys with probably more risk than Robinson to draft instead of him.

 

[kyoun1e]

I don't blame anyone for taking Bijon over Henry or Jacobs this year, given age and holdout situations. But some of the bolded below have me perplexed... It would be very hard for me to take an unproven elite player over the bolded proven elites. Jacobs would be a part of this too, if he were signed and happy.

1. Justin JeffersonWR 1.1 Show Trend » 13 207 284.20
2. Christian McCaffreyRB 1.2 Show Trend » 9 226 238.35
3. Ja'Marr ChaseWR 1.3 Show Trend » 7 202 266.85
4. Tyreek HillWR 1.4 Show Trend » 10 187 262.15
5. Austin EkelerRB 1.5 Show Trend » 5 221 244.75
6. Travis KelceTE 1.6 Show Trend » 10 168 226.70
7. Cooper KuppWR 1.7 Show Trend » 10 185 259.95
8. Bijan RobinsonRB 1.8 Show Trend » 11 217 240.85

Have the 7th pick in a 12 team PPR and while I'm drooling over Bijan, I'm having a hard time thinking I'd pull the trigger over those first heavenly seven.

Kupp could be the only one he leapfrogs if there are rumblings of that hammy lingering.

To me it depends on your build. 1.07/2.08 typically results in a tier drop at whichever position you don't take.

As such, it could well come down to who goes 1-6 - if there's an early run on WR & JJ, Chase & Kupp go with Kelce, CMC & Eke (something I've seen in several drafts now) then you're choosing between Bijan & Hill.

In that instance I lean Bijan - because while I do like Hill, I believe his floor is lower (though he has a higher ceiling) - I don't love starting my draft with a volatile player. And the Tua concussion (or Hill off-field knucklehead) concerns are real.

If it's Kupp, I also agree that maybe it's Bijan - depends how you feel about the Rams.

It it's Kelce, I probably take Bijan and let someone else do the TE build. If it's not TE-P, I don't love it, even if Kelce gives you an advantage. You're also committing to a 2nd & 3rd round WR/RB or RB/WR, with a drop-off at both compared to RB/WR 1st round builds.

It's a difficult choice, I definitely agree about that.

Yeah I'm not loving the vibe I'm getting from the Rams. That team could be in full rebuild mode by mid season.

Good point on Hill volatility. I'm finding several WRs (AJ Brown, A ST Brown, G. Wilson, CD, Waddle) available at 2.08 so skipping a Hill could work.

Passing on Kelce at 7 would be tough I must say.

 

[kyoun1e]

Bijan>>> Kupp all day everyday

Wow. Strong recommendation there.

The situation almost seems too good to be true. So many data points line up:

* Head coach wants to run, run, run. And has with lesser talent.
* Drafted #8 for a reason.
* History of rookie RBs getting drafted high and first year production.
* Improved QB play.

I mean...what could go wrong?

Would make me feel better if CPatt gets cut. My worst nightmare is week 1 seeing Allgier AND CPatt getting run...and the fantasy world and myself exploding with panic.

 

[Keith1]

I don't blame anyone for taking Bijon over Henry or Jacobs this year, given age and holdout situations. But some of the bolded below have me perplexed... It would be very hard for me to take an unproven elite player over the bolded proven elites. Jacobs would be a part of this too, if he were signed and happy.

1. Justin JeffersonWR 1.1 Show Trend » 13 207 284.20
2. Christian McCaffreyRB 1.2 Show Trend » 9 226 238.35
3. Ja'Marr ChaseWR 1.3 Show Trend » 7 202 266.85
4. Tyreek HillWR 1.4 Show Trend » 10 187 262.15
5. Austin EkelerRB 1.5 Show Trend » 5 221 244.75
6. Travis KelceTE 1.6 Show Trend » 10 168 226.70
7. Cooper KuppWR 1.7 Show Trend » 10 185 259.95
8. Bijan RobinsonRB 1.8 Show Trend » 11 217 240.85

Have the 7th pick in a 12 team PPR and while I'm drooling over Bijan, I'm having a hard time thinking I'd pull the trigger over those first heavenly seven.

Kupp could be the only one he leapfrogs if there are rumblings of that hammy lingering.

Yeah I'm not loving the vibe I'm getting from the Rams. That team could be in full rebuild mode by mid season.

Let's assume that is true. What would they gain by not playing a healthy Cooper Kupp ?? Truthfully, I don't see the logic in that at all. You want to take Bijon over Kupp, go for it. But do it for the right reasons.

 

[Chaka]

Bijan>>> Kupp all day everyday

Wow. Strong recommendation there.

The situation almost seems too good to be true. So many data points line up:

* Head coach wants to run, run, run. And has with lesser talent.
* Drafted #8 for a reason.
* History of rookie RBs getting drafted high and first year production.
* Improved QB play.

I mean...what could go wrong?

Would make me feel better if CPatt gets cut. My worst nightmare is week 1 seeing Allgier AND CPatt getting run...and the fantasy world and myself exploding with panic.

Kupp should absolutely out point Bijan. But the Rams are a lesser team, on paper and I don't put a lot of stock in the "bad teams play shootouts" logic. I don't think that holds up to scrutiny.

Then Kupp & Stafford's overall ability to stay healthy for 17 is the decisive factor for me.

Kupp will eat all the pie when he's on the field but it's probably, like, rhubarb.

 

[Keith1]

Bijan>>> Kupp all day everyday

Wow. Strong recommendation there.

The situation almost seems too good to be true. So many data points line up:

* Head coach wants to run, run, run. And has with lesser talent.
* Drafted #8 for a reason.
* History of rookie RBs getting drafted high and first year production.
* Improved QB play.

I mean...what could go wrong?

Would make me feel better if CPatt gets cut. My worst nightmare is week 1 seeing Allgier AND CPatt getting run...and the fantasy world and myself exploding with panic.

Kupp should absolutely out point Bijan. But the Rams are a lesser team, on paper and I don't put a lot of stock in the "bad teams play shootouts" logic. I don't think that holds up to scrutiny.

Then Kupp & Stafford's overall ability to stay healthy for 17 is the decisive factor for me.

Kupp will eat all the pie when he's on the field but it's probably, like, rhubarb.

Two years ago he set WR records. Last year he was on pace to do so again. Hell, he missed half the season and I believe he STILL finished as a top 25 WR. After pick # 4 or 5 in the 1st round, a healthy Kupp feels like the right pick. Even over Bijan who, if you believe the hype (particularly in this thread) is already being fitted for his gold jacket.

 

[Schmeabs]

Bijan>>> Kupp all day everyday

Wow. Strong recommendation there.

The situation almost seems too good to be true. So many data points line up:

* Head coach wants to run, run, run. And has with lesser talent.
* Drafted #8 for a reason.
* History of rookie RBs getting drafted high and first year production.
* Improved QB play.

I mean...what could go wrong?

Would make me feel better if CPatt gets cut. My worst nightmare is week 1 seeing Allgier AND CPatt getting run...and the fantasy world and myself exploding with panic.

Kupp should absolutely out point Bijan. But the Rams are a lesser team, on paper and I don't put a lot of stock in the "bad teams play shootouts" logic. I don't think that holds up to scrutiny.

Then Kupp & Stafford's overall ability to stay healthy for 17 is the decisive factor for me.

Kupp will eat all the pie when he's on the field but it's probably, like, rhubarb.

Two years ago he set WR records. Last year he was on pace to do so again. Hell, he missed half the season and I believe he STILL finished as a top 25 WR. After pick # 4 or 5 in the 1st round, a healthy Kupp feels like the right pick. Even over Bijan who, if you believe the hype (particularly in this thread) is already being fitted for his gold jacket.

Shhhhh!

 

[Chaka]

Bijan>>> Kupp all day everyday

Wow. Strong recommendation there.

The situation almost seems too good to be true. So many data points line up:

* Head coach wants to run, run, run. And has with lesser talent.
* Drafted #8 for a reason.
* History of rookie RBs getting drafted high and first year production.
* Improved QB play.

I mean...what could go wrong?

Would make me feel better if CPatt gets cut. My worst nightmare is week 1 seeing Allgier AND CPatt getting run...and the fantasy world and myself exploding with panic.

Kupp should absolutely out point Bijan. But the Rams are a lesser team, on paper and I don't put a lot of stock in the "bad teams play shootouts" logic. I don't think that holds up to scrutiny.

Then Kupp & Stafford's overall ability to stay healthy for 17 is the decisive factor for me.

Kupp will eat all the pie when he's on the field but it's probably, like, rhubarb.

Two years ago he set WR records. Last year he was on pace to do so again. Hell, he missed half the season and I believe he STILL finished as a top 25 WR. After pick # 4 or 5 in the 1st round, a healthy Kupp feels like the right pick. Even over Bijan who, if you believe the hype (particularly in this thread) is already being fitted for his gold jacket.

I will certainly not try to debate you out of that stance. Kupp has been fantasy gold and there isn't much reason to think he won't be this season when he's on the field.

For me I just attach a bit more risk to Kupp's potential outcomes than Bijan.

ETA: I hope I am not the only one in my league who feels that way. If he drops below ADP I would absolutely go after him.

 

[4th&inches]

I don't blame anyone for taking Bijon over Henry or Jacobs this year, given age and holdout situations. But some of the bolded below have me perplexed... It would be very hard for me to take an unproven elite player over the bolded proven elites. Jacobs would be a part of this too, if he were signed and happy.

1. Justin JeffersonWR 1.1 Show Trend » 13 207 284.20
2. Christian McCaffreyRB 1.2 Show Trend » 9 226 238.35
3. Ja'Marr ChaseWR 1.3 Show Trend » 7 202 266.85
4. Tyreek HillWR 1.4 Show Trend » 10 187 262.15
5. Austin EkelerRB 1.5 Show Trend » 5 221 244.75
6. Travis KelceTE 1.6 Show Trend » 10 168 226.70
7. Cooper KuppWR 1.7 Show Trend » 10 185 259.95
8. Bijan RobinsonRB 1.8 Show Trend » 11 217 240.85

Have the 7th pick in a 12 team PPR and while I'm drooling over Bijan, I'm having a hard time thinking I'd pull the trigger over those first heavenly seven.

Kupp could be the only one he leapfrogs if there are rumblings of that hammy lingering.

To me it depends on your build. 1.07/2.08 typically results in a tier drop at whichever position you don't take.

As such, it could well come down to who goes 1-6 - if there's an early run on WR & JJ, Chase & Kupp go with Kelce, CMC & Eke (something I've seen in several drafts now) then you're choosing between Bijan & Hill.

In that instance I lean Bijan - because while I do like Hill, I believe his floor is lower (though he has a higher ceiling) - I don't love starting my draft with a volatile player. And the Tua concussion (or Hill off-field knucklehead) concerns are real.

If it's Kupp, I also agree that maybe it's Bijan - depends how you feel about the Rams.

It it's Kelce, I probably take Bijan and let someone else do the TE build. If it's not TE-P, I don't love it, even if Kelce gives you an advantage. You're also committing to a 2nd & 3rd round WR/RB or RB/WR, with a drop-off at both compared to RB/WR 1st round builds.

It's a difficult choice, I definitely agree about that.

I have such a hard time personally picking Bijan before Saquon or Chubb,, at least in standard (don't ever play PPR and don't know anyone who does though it seems prevalent everywhere). I think in standard scoring I have Robinson around pick 7.

I know it defies conventional wisdom but I have Chubb as my #1 RB overall and I am close to putting Saquon as my #2.

For me that's where it gets a lot tougher between McCaffrey, Ekeler, Henry, Bijan & probably Pollard.

Again, I understand what conventional wisdom says but the next time the top seven RBs by ADP finish the season as the top seven RBs will be the first time.

I came into this thread looking to get the Shark Pool's thoughts on Bijan compared to other 1st round picks being drafted around him. I was 100% sold on Chubb as my target RB pick in round 1 knowing CMC & Ekeler would be gone in the top 4 picks.

However, after reading this and all the other comments, y'all have successfully confused the heck out of who I'm now leaning toward with picks 1.05 - 1.07. Chubb, Bijan, Kupp, Kelce....

Regardless, I LOVE the upside, the system he fell into, and the draft capital spent to back up where his apparent role will be. My RB ranking reservation is mainly with Chubb and the talk he "should" be getting a decent uptick in catches now that there's no Hunt. IF that holds true, I can't help but rank Chubb slightly ahead of Bijan.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I don't blame anyone for taking Bijon over Henry or Jacobs this year, given age and holdout situations. But some of the bolded below have me perplexed... It would be very hard for me to take an unproven elite player over the bolded proven elites. Jacobs would be a part of this too, if he were signed and happy.

1. Justin JeffersonWR 1.1 Show Trend » 13 207 284.20
2. Christian McCaffreyRB 1.2 Show Trend » 9 226 238.35
3. Ja'Marr ChaseWR 1.3 Show Trend » 7 202 266.85
4. Tyreek HillWR 1.4 Show Trend » 10 187 262.15
5. Austin EkelerRB 1.5 Show Trend » 5 221 244.75
6. Travis KelceTE 1.6 Show Trend » 10 168 226.70
7. Cooper KuppWR 1.7 Show Trend » 10 185 259.95
8. Bijan RobinsonRB 1.8 Show Trend » 11 217 240.85

Have the 7th pick in a 12 team PPR and while I'm drooling over Bijan, I'm having a hard time thinking I'd pull the trigger over those first heavenly seven.

Kupp could be the only one he leapfrogs if there are rumblings of that hammy lingering.

To me it depends on your build. 1.07/2.08 typically results in a tier drop at whichever position you don't take.

As such, it could well come down to who goes 1-6 - if there's an early run on WR & JJ, Chase & Kupp go with Kelce, CMC & Eke (something I've seen in several drafts now) then you're choosing between Bijan & Hill.

In that instance I lean Bijan - because while I do like Hill, I believe his floor is lower (though he has a higher ceiling) - I don't love starting my draft with a volatile player. And the Tua concussion (or Hill off-field knucklehead) concerns are real.

If it's Kupp, I also agree that maybe it's Bijan - depends how you feel about the Rams.

It it's Kelce, I probably take Bijan and let someone else do the TE build. If it's not TE-P, I don't love it, even if Kelce gives you an advantage. You're also committing to a 2nd & 3rd round WR/RB or RB/WR, with a drop-off at both compared to RB/WR 1st round builds.

It's a difficult choice, I definitely agree about that.

I have such a hard time personally picking Bijan before Saquon or Chubb,, at least in standard (don't ever play PPR and don't know anyone who does though it seems prevalent everywhere). I think in standard scoring I have Robinson around pick 7.

I know it defies conventional wisdom but I have Chubb as my #1 RB overall and I am close to putting Saquon as my #2.

For me that's where it gets a lot tougher between McCaffrey, Ekeler, Henry, Bijan & probably Pollard.

Again, I understand what conventional wisdom says but the next time the top seven RBs by ADP finish the season as the top seven RBs will be the first time.

I came into this thread looking to get the Shark Pool's thoughts on Bijan compared to other 1st round picks being drafted around him. I was 100% sold on Chubb as my target RB pick in round 1 knowing CMC & Ekeler would be gone in the top 4 picks.

However, after reading this and all the other comments, y'all have successfully confused the heck out of who I'm now leaning toward with picks 1.05 - 1.07. Chubb, Bijan, Kupp, Kelce....

Regardless, I LOVE the upside, the system he fell into, and the draft capital spent to back up where his apparent role will be. My RB ranking reservation is mainly with Chubb and the talk he "should" be getting a decent uptick in catches now that there's no Hunt. IF that holds true, I can't help but rank Chubb slightly ahead of Bijan.

I landed Eke at 5 & 6 this year, so don’t write it off as impossible. WR-heavy builds have been more and more popular the last few years as the masses have caught up to that strategy, but with RB being a bit top-heavy it’s not a bad year to zig when everyone zags. I’d say you have a very good chance at Eke 1.05-1.07.

That said, if you do miss on Eke, it’s a heck of a decision. Fortunately there aren’t many bad options.

 

[Chaka]

I don't blame anyone for taking Bijon over Henry or Jacobs this year, given age and holdout situations. But some of the bolded below have me perplexed... It would be very hard for me to take an unproven elite player over the bolded proven elites. Jacobs would be a part of this too, if he were signed and happy.

1. Justin JeffersonWR 1.1 Show Trend » 13 207 284.20
2. Christian McCaffreyRB 1.2 Show Trend » 9 226 238.35
3. Ja'Marr ChaseWR 1.3 Show Trend » 7 202 266.85
4. Tyreek HillWR 1.4 Show Trend » 10 187 262.15
5. Austin EkelerRB 1.5 Show Trend » 5 221 244.75
6. Travis KelceTE 1.6 Show Trend » 10 168 226.70
7. Cooper KuppWR 1.7 Show Trend » 10 185 259.95
8. Bijan RobinsonRB 1.8 Show Trend » 11 217 240.85

Have the 7th pick in a 12 team PPR and while I'm drooling over Bijan, I'm having a hard time thinking I'd pull the trigger over those first heavenly seven.

Kupp could be the only one he leapfrogs if there are rumblings of that hammy lingering.

To me it depends on your build. 1.07/2.08 typically results in a tier drop at whichever position you don't take.

As such, it could well come down to who goes 1-6 - if there's an early run on WR & JJ, Chase & Kupp go with Kelce, CMC & Eke (something I've seen in several drafts now) then you're choosing between Bijan & Hill.

In that instance I lean Bijan - because while I do like Hill, I believe his floor is lower (though he has a higher ceiling) - I don't love starting my draft with a volatile player. And the Tua concussion (or Hill off-field knucklehead) concerns are real.

If it's Kupp, I also agree that maybe it's Bijan - depends how you feel about the Rams.

It it's Kelce, I probably take Bijan and let someone else do the TE build. If it's not TE-P, I don't love it, even if Kelce gives you an advantage. You're also committing to a 2nd & 3rd round WR/RB or RB/WR, with a drop-off at both compared to RB/WR 1st round builds.

It's a difficult choice, I definitely agree about that.

I have such a hard time personally picking Bijan before Saquon or Chubb,, at least in standard (don't ever play PPR and don't know anyone who does though it seems prevalent everywhere). I think in standard scoring I have Robinson around pick 7.

I know it defies conventional wisdom but I have Chubb as my #1 RB overall and I am close to putting Saquon as my #2.

For me that's where it gets a lot tougher between McCaffrey, Ekeler, Henry, Bijan & probably Pollard.

Again, I understand what conventional wisdom says but the next time the top seven RBs by ADP finish the season as the top seven RBs will be the first time.

I came into this thread looking to get the Shark Pool's thoughts on Bijan compared to other 1st round picks being drafted around him. I was 100% sold on Chubb as my target RB pick in round 1 knowing CMC & Ekeler would be gone in the top 4 picks.

However, after reading this and all the other comments, y'all have successfully confused the heck out of who I'm now leaning toward with picks 1.05 - 1.07. Chubb, Bijan, Kupp, Kelce....

Regardless, I LOVE the upside, the system he fell into, and the draft capital spent to back up where his apparent role will be. My RB ranking reservation is mainly with Chubb and the talk he "should" be getting a decent uptick in catches now that there's no Hunt. IF that holds true, I can't help but rank Chubb slightly ahead of Bijan.

I think the Browns are going to beat the ever loving #### out of Chubb this year.

Not only did they not replace Hunt's 123 carries and 44 targets but, if I am reading Spotrac correctly, the Browns can walk from Chubb this off season with only a $4 mil cap hit in 2024.

With the current market for RBs I am 99.999% certain the Browns are not going to keep him in 2024 because he will be on the books for $16 mil.

The risk is Chubb was markedly worse in the 6 games with DeShaun than the 11 games without.

From 20.3 opportunities, 108.3 yards & 1.1 TDs per game to 19.3 opportunities, 95.5 yards and 0.2 TDs per game.

But the latter data still prorates to 1,600+ yards over 17 games so I'm willing to look at the TD decline as an aberration.

 

[LionOfGosforth]

I don't blame anyone for taking Bijon over Henry or Jacobs this year, given age and holdout situations. But some of the bolded below have me perplexed... It would be very hard for me to take an unproven elite player over the bolded proven elites. Jacobs would be a part of this too, if he were signed and happy.

1. Justin JeffersonWR 1.1 Show Trend » 13 207 284.20
2. Christian McCaffreyRB 1.2 Show Trend » 9 226 238.35
3. Ja'Marr ChaseWR 1.3 Show Trend » 7 202 266.85
4. Tyreek HillWR 1.4 Show Trend » 10 187 262.15
5. Austin EkelerRB 1.5 Show Trend » 5 221 244.75
6. Travis KelceTE 1.6 Show Trend » 10 168 226.70
7. Cooper KuppWR 1.7 Show Trend » 10 185 259.95
8. Bijan RobinsonRB 1.8 Show Trend » 11 217 240.85

Have the 7th pick in a 12 team PPR and while I'm drooling over Bijan, I'm having a hard time thinking I'd pull the trigger over those first heavenly seven.

Kupp could be the only one he leapfrogs if there are rumblings of that hammy lingering.

To me it depends on your build. 1.07/2.08 typically results in a tier drop at whichever position you don't take.

As such, it could well come down to who goes 1-6 - if there's an early run on WR & JJ, Chase & Kupp go with Kelce, CMC & Eke (something I've seen in several drafts now) then you're choosing between Bijan & Hill.

In that instance I lean Bijan - because while I do like Hill, I believe his floor is lower (though he has a higher ceiling) - I don't love starting my draft with a volatile player. And the Tua concussion (or Hill off-field knucklehead) concerns are real.

If it's Kupp, I also agree that maybe it's Bijan - depends how you feel about the Rams.

It it's Kelce, I probably take Bijan and let someone else do the TE build. If it's not TE-P, I don't love it, even if Kelce gives you an advantage. You're also committing to a 2nd & 3rd round WR/RB or RB/WR, with a drop-off at both compared to RB/WR 1st round builds.

It's a difficult choice, I definitely agree about that.

I have such a hard time personally picking Bijan before Saquon or Chubb,, at least in standard (don't ever play PPR and don't know anyone who does though it seems prevalent everywhere). I think in standard scoring I have Robinson around pick 7.

I know it defies conventional wisdom but I have Chubb as my #1 RB overall and I am close to putting Saquon as my #2.

For me that's where it gets a lot tougher between McCaffrey, Ekeler, Henry, Bijan & probably Pollard.

Again, I understand what conventional wisdom says but the next time the top seven RBs by ADP finish the season as the top seven RBs will be the first time.

I came into this thread looking to get the Shark Pool's thoughts on Bijan compared to other 1st round picks being drafted around him. I was 100% sold on Chubb as my target RB pick in round 1 knowing CMC & Ekeler would be gone in the top 4 picks.

However, after reading this and all the other comments, y'all have successfully confused the heck out of who I'm now leaning toward with picks 1.05 - 1.07. Chubb, Bijan, Kupp, Kelce....

Regardless, I LOVE the upside, the system he fell into, and the draft capital spent to back up where his apparent role will be. My RB ranking reservation is mainly with Chubb and the talk he "should" be getting a decent uptick in catches now that there's no Hunt. IF that holds true, I can't help but rank Chubb slightly ahead of Bijan.

I think the Browns are going to beat the ever loving #### out of Chubb this year.

Not only did they not replace Hunt's 123 carries and 44 targets but, if I am reading Spotrac correctly, the Browns can walk from Chubb this off season with only a $4 mil cap hit in 2024.

With the current market for RBs I am 99.999% certain the Browns are not going to keep him in 2024 because he will be on the books for $16 mil.

The risk is Chubb was markedly worse in the 6 games with DeShaun than the 11 games without.

From 20.3 opportunities, 108.3 yards & 1.1 TDs per game to 19.3 opportunities, 95.5 yards and 0.2 TDs per game.

But the latter data still prorates to 1,600+ yards over 17 games so I'm willing to look at the TD decline as an aberration.

Hadn't thought of the Watson factor at all really. I had my RBs ranked something like CMac, Chubb, Ekeler, Barkley, Robinson. Now i'm not even sure as it's dawning on me Browns, while they will work Chubb hard, will want to utilize Watson plenty too. Jeez.

 

[Chaka]

I don't blame anyone for taking Bijon over Henry or Jacobs this year, given age and holdout situations. But some of the bolded below have me perplexed... It would be very hard for me to take an unproven elite player over the bolded proven elites. Jacobs would be a part of this too, if he were signed and happy.

1. Justin JeffersonWR 1.1 Show Trend » 13 207 284.20
2. Christian McCaffreyRB 1.2 Show Trend » 9 226 238.35
3. Ja'Marr ChaseWR 1.3 Show Trend » 7 202 266.85
4. Tyreek HillWR 1.4 Show Trend » 10 187 262.15
5. Austin EkelerRB 1.5 Show Trend » 5 221 244.75
6. Travis KelceTE 1.6 Show Trend » 10 168 226.70
7. Cooper KuppWR 1.7 Show Trend » 10 185 259.95
8. Bijan RobinsonRB 1.8 Show Trend » 11 217 240.85

Have the 7th pick in a 12 team PPR and while I'm drooling over Bijan, I'm having a hard time thinking I'd pull the trigger over those first heavenly seven.

Kupp could be the only one he leapfrogs if there are rumblings of that hammy lingering.

To me it depends on your build. 1.07/2.08 typically results in a tier drop at whichever position you don't take.

As such, it could well come down to who goes 1-6 - if there's an early run on WR & JJ, Chase & Kupp go with Kelce, CMC & Eke (something I've seen in several drafts now) then you're choosing between Bijan & Hill.

In that instance I lean Bijan - because while I do like Hill, I believe his floor is lower (though he has a higher ceiling) - I don't love starting my draft with a volatile player. And the Tua concussion (or Hill off-field knucklehead) concerns are real.

If it's Kupp, I also agree that maybe it's Bijan - depends how you feel about the Rams.

It it's Kelce, I probably take Bijan and let someone else do the TE build. If it's not TE-P, I don't love it, even if Kelce gives you an advantage. You're also committing to a 2nd & 3rd round WR/RB or RB/WR, with a drop-off at both compared to RB/WR 1st round builds.

It's a difficult choice, I definitely agree about that.

I have such a hard time personally picking Bijan before Saquon or Chubb,, at least in standard (don't ever play PPR and don't know anyone who does though it seems prevalent everywhere). I think in standard scoring I have Robinson around pick 7.

I know it defies conventional wisdom but I have Chubb as my #1 RB overall and I am close to putting Saquon as my #2.

For me that's where it gets a lot tougher between McCaffrey, Ekeler, Henry, Bijan & probably Pollard.

Again, I understand what conventional wisdom says but the next time the top seven RBs by ADP finish the season as the top seven RBs will be the first time.

I came into this thread looking to get the Shark Pool's thoughts on Bijan compared to other 1st round picks being drafted around him. I was 100% sold on Chubb as my target RB pick in round 1 knowing CMC & Ekeler would be gone in the top 4 picks.

However, after reading this and all the other comments, y'all have successfully confused the heck out of who I'm now leaning toward with picks 1.05 - 1.07. Chubb, Bijan, Kupp, Kelce....

Regardless, I LOVE the upside, the system he fell into, and the draft capital spent to back up where his apparent role will be. My RB ranking reservation is mainly with Chubb and the talk he "should" be getting a decent uptick in catches now that there's no Hunt. IF that holds true, I can't help but rank Chubb slightly ahead of Bijan.

I think the Browns are going to beat the ever loving #### out of Chubb this year.

Not only did they not replace Hunt's 123 carries and 44 targets but, if I am reading Spotrac correctly, the Browns can walk from Chubb this off season with only a $4 mil cap hit in 2024.

With the current market for RBs I am 99.999% certain the Browns are not going to keep him in 2024 because he will be on the books for $16 mil.

The risk is Chubb was markedly worse in the 6 games with DeShaun than the 11 games without.

From 20.3 opportunities, 108.3 yards & 1.1 TDs per game to 19.3 opportunities, 95.5 yards and 0.2 TDs per game.

But the latter data still prorates to 1,600+ yards over 17 games so I'm willing to look at the TD decline as an aberration.

Hadn't thought of the Watson factor at all really. I had my RBs ranked something like CMac, Chubb, Ekeler, Barkley, Robinson. Now i'm not even sure as it's dawning on me Browns, while they will work Chubb hard, will want to utilize Watson plenty too. Jeez.

I think leaning on Chubb will make DeShaun better.

 

[Chardo1]

Chubb's floor is top 5. His floor. Ceiling is record setting.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Chubb's floor is top 5. His floor. Ceiling is record setting.

Not sure I agree with that. He should be good. He’s also 27 with a lot of mileage.

I think a lot of his success will have to do with
1. How well Watson can sustain drives
2. How often Watson vultures RZ TDs.
3. How much guys like Felton & Ford spell Chubb, especially 3rd downs.

IMO Felton inherits the Hunt receiving role and acts as the COP back. He’s quietly had a very good preseason. A lot of folks talking about how they “didn’t replace Hunt” - maybe they already had a Hunt replacement in-house.

Also of modest concern for Chubb’s ceiling is the expressed intent to use Moore in the ground game.

I don’t think these will collectively prevent Chubb from being a top RB this year. I’m just saying he’s not the only ball carrier on the team as some have implied out in fantasyland.

 

[Grid71]

I don't blame anyone for taking Bijon over Henry or Jacobs this year, given age and holdout situations. But some of the bolded below have me perplexed... It would be very hard for me to take an unproven elite player over the bolded proven elites. Jacobs would be a part of this too, if he were signed and happy.

1. Justin JeffersonWR 1.1 Show Trend » 13 207 284.20
2. Christian McCaffreyRB 1.2 Show Trend » 9 226 238.35
3. Ja'Marr ChaseWR 1.3 Show Trend » 7 202 266.85
4. Tyreek HillWR 1.4 Show Trend » 10 187 262.15
5. Austin EkelerRB 1.5 Show Trend » 5 221 244.75
6. Travis KelceTE 1.6 Show Trend » 10 168 226.70
7. Cooper KuppWR 1.7 Show Trend » 10 185 259.95
8. Bijan RobinsonRB 1.8 Show Trend » 11 217 240.85

Have the 7th pick in a 12 team PPR and while I'm drooling over Bijan, I'm having a hard time thinking I'd pull the trigger over those first heavenly seven.

Kupp could be the only one he leapfrogs if there are rumblings of that hammy lingering.

To me it depends on your build. 1.07/2.08 typically results in a tier drop at whichever position you don't take.

As such, it could well come down to who goes 1-6 - if there's an early run on WR & JJ, Chase & Kupp go with Kelce, CMC & Eke (something I've seen in several drafts now) then you're choosing between Bijan & Hill.

In that instance I lean Bijan - because while I do like Hill, I believe his floor is lower (though he has a higher ceiling) - I don't love starting my draft with a volatile player. And the Tua concussion (or Hill off-field knucklehead) concerns are real.

If it's Kupp, I also agree that maybe it's Bijan - depends how you feel about the Rams.

It it's Kelce, I probably take Bijan and let someone else do the TE build. If it's not TE-P, I don't love it, even if Kelce gives you an advantage. You're also committing to a 2nd & 3rd round WR/RB or RB/WR, with a drop-off at both compared to RB/WR 1st round builds.

It's a difficult choice, I definitely agree about that.

I have such a hard time personally picking Bijan before Saquon or Chubb,, at least in standard (don't ever play PPR and don't know anyone who does though it seems prevalent everywhere). I think in standard scoring I have Robinson around pick 7.

I know it defies conventional wisdom but I have Chubb as my #1 RB overall and I am close to putting Saquon as my #2.

For me that's where it gets a lot tougher between McCaffrey, Ekeler, Henry, Bijan & probably Pollard.

Again, I understand what conventional wisdom says but the next time the top seven RBs by ADP finish the season as the top seven RBs will be the first time.

I came into this thread looking to get the Shark Pool's thoughts on Bijan compared to other 1st round picks being drafted around him. I was 100% sold on Chubb as my target RB pick in round 1 knowing CMC & Ekeler would be gone in the top 4 picks.

However, after reading this and all the other comments, y'all have successfully confused the heck out of who I'm now leaning toward with picks 1.05 - 1.07. Chubb, Bijan, Kupp, Kelce....

Regardless, I LOVE the upside, the system he fell into, and the draft capital spent to back up where his apparent role will be. My RB ranking reservation is mainly with Chubb and the talk he "should" be getting a decent uptick in catches now that there's no Hunt. IF that holds true, I can't help but rank Chubb slightly ahead of Bijan.

I think the Browns are going to beat the ever loving #### out of Chubb this year.

Not only did they not replace Hunt's 123 carries and 44 targets but, if I am reading Spotrac correctly, the Browns can walk from Chubb this off season with only a $4 mil cap hit in 2024.

With the current market for RBs I am 99.999% certain the Browns are not going to keep him in 2024 because he will be on the books for $16 mil.

The risk is Chubb was markedly worse in the 6 games with DeShaun than the 11 games without.

From 20.3 opportunities, 108.3 yards & 1.1 TDs per game to 19.3 opportunities, 95.5 yards and 0.2 TDs per game.

But the latter data still prorates to 1,600+ yards over 17 games so I'm willing to look at the TD decline as an aberration.

Crazy isn't it? Watched the Cleveland games and noticed the offense stunk about as badly as Pittsburgh once Watson took over. My take as a fan, Watson was so bad the team couldn't sustain drives. Hurt Chubb's production hard. Kareem Hunt wasn't much of a factor in 2022.
Betting on Chubb is also betting on Watson coming around with the messy first season behind him. Assuming Watson can command the offense efficiently, sky is the limit for Chubb.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Assuming Watson can command the offense efficiently, sky is the limit for Chubb.

Tough to make that assumption based on Watson’s preseason showing. He’s been pretty hit & miss. To my eyes he hasn’t looked a lot different than he did last year.

Maybe he’ll turn it on when games count. Or maybe a difficult year away from the game hurt his mental sharpness.

 

[Lansdowne]

Falcons are going to move the ball at will. They have Drake London to keep defenses honest.

Who is their QB?

Trent Richardson was never considered a blue chipper, can't miss prospect entering the NFL.

You sure about this? I seem to recall different. I am not sure.

Yeah T-Rich was a very highly regarded RB prospect. He’s the can’t-miss prospect who missed.

Sideline Scouting - Trent Richardson Scouting Report

Scouting report for 2012 NFL draft prospect, RB Trent Richardson of Alabama

www.sidelinescouting.com

Extremely high upside, best running back prospect since Peterson in 2007, has all the makings of a future Pro Bowler.

Trent Richardson 2012 NFL Draft scouting report

In-depth scouting notes on the talented Alabama Heisman Trophy finalist.

www.sbnation.com

When reviewing Richardson's game, it's hard to find negatives. He's a complete running back in every sense and would be the rare running back worth an early first-round pick.

Draft profile: RB Trent Richardson

We continue our series of player profiles, focusing on possibilities with the 16th overall pick:Player: Trent Richardson, RB, AlabamaHeight/weight: 5-foot-9, 228 poundsScouts, Inc.

www.espn.com

Many believe Richardson is the best running-back prospect since Adrian Peterson (2007). He's a complete package of power and speed.

 

[Tanner9919]

Falcons are going to move the ball at will. They have Drake London to keep defenses honest.

Who is their QB?

Trent Richardson was never considered a blue chipper, can't miss prospect entering the NFL.

You sure about this? I seem to recall different. I am not sure.

Yeah T-Rich was a very highly regarded RB prospect. He’s the can’t-miss prospect who missed.

Sideline Scouting - Trent Richardson Scouting Report

Scouting report for 2012 NFL draft prospect, RB Trent Richardson of Alabama

www.sidelinescouting.com

Extremely high upside, best running back prospect since Peterson in 2007, has all the makings of a future Pro Bowler.

Trent Richardson 2012 NFL Draft scouting report

In-depth scouting notes on the talented Alabama Heisman Trophy finalist.

www.sbnation.com

When reviewing Richardson's game, it's hard to find negatives. He's a complete running back in every sense and would be the rare running back worth an early first-round pick.

Draft profile: RB Trent Richardson

We continue our series of player profiles, focusing on possibilities with the 16th overall pick:Player: Trent Richardson, RB, AlabamaHeight/weight: 5-foot-9, 228 poundsScouts, Inc.

www.espn.com

Many believe Richardson is the best running-back prospect since Adrian Peterson (2007). He's a complete package of power and speed.

fair enough..understood. but if you were on here that long ago, when trich was a rookie, I was the guy shouting from the mountain top that trich is going to be a collassal bust of epic proportions. I was so vilified for that stance it was comical. I mean people really went after my hard about it. i stood my ground. I came out on top. I made it through the rain,
I made it through the rain
I kept my world protected
I made it thought the rain
I kept my point of view
I made it through the rain
LOL. I'm happy about it. Hey I 100% get what you're saying, and I have the first pick in a dynasty league and I'm totally nervous about using that pick on Dijon mustard becuase of one lousty stinkin run in preseason - he didn't even play last night! so yeah that's a big WTF do youi do now type thing.
I get that it's blind faith, really. IMO many more pundits are on Bijan then were on the trich bandwagon..wayy more. but here's the thing, BR can catch - like better hands than Barkley type of receiving RB. think marhsall faulk type hands..people complain about 'who's their QB'.. hmm, uh, well , mariota was their last season , and that didn't stop Algier did it? oh, sorry for the drop the mic moment..are you still with me? Mariota avg'd 23 passes/gm, Ridder 29 passes/gm. let's say that goes to 33-35 passes/gm. with a 2nd year drake london. do you watch under dog sports on youtube? please catch some of their talking points on london and ridder. he's probably the next great WR in the NFL , bonafide stud ( this according to them and their stat magic, not my words).point being, london keeps defenses honest, If Pitts isn't hurt ( I hear he has a potential MCL?) , he's going to occupy some defenders. then they send BR in the flat or up the seam.
This is one of, if not the best, o-lines in the NFL. Smith is a run first, run heavy coach.

I remember the pundits talking nonsense about Curtis Enis, David Montgomery, Blair Thomas, Ki-jana carter. I'm just saying, B. Robinson is a bird of a different feather. he's not a one-trick pony who can only run the ball. they're going to use him as a weapon, as Smith says. I think that means a lot of recs out of the backfield. now, maybe he has more value in PPR than in non-ppr - ok, I can buy that.
even underdog sports talking heads are saying that the hint we need to pay attention to is how little Robinson has been used in preseason games - are they planning to run him into the ground come regular season? yes, is the answer they implied there. They have a lot of good info on the Falcons offense please have a look at some of their videos.
hey if nothing else, they said drake london is the next great WR and he's set to dominate his skill set is incredible. so maybe you can at least use that nugget! btw I was anti any penn state RB who was entering the NFL - until Barkley. he had all the tools. you watch guys like Faulk and Edgerrin James and LT2 in college, even Portis and you KNOW they were going to rip it up in the NFL. the fact that bijan has like 4 carries in preseason screams volumes to me that they're going to work him into the ground come regular games. sometimes you have you just take EVERYONE else's word on it and take that guy. hey I'd rather be the guy who swung on a full count with the bases loaded, than the guy who kept the bat on his shoulder and struck out. as madded used to say ' dont worry about the horse being blind..just load the wagon'. don't worry about bijan, just grab him. never leave a birdie/eagle putt short

 

[Lansdowne]

I’m a very happy Bijan owner in dynasty, just wanted to share that there once was a guy like T-Rich.

 

[travdogg]

Chubb's floor is top 5. His floor. Ceiling is record setting.

What records do you mean?

I highly doubt Chubb (or any RB) is making a run at Dickerson's rushing record or Tomlinson's TD record.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

classic example of "you can't win your league in the first round, but you can lose it in the first round".

now, because this is fantasy football, there is NOTHING wrong with taking this guy at 1.03. Just please don't do it in a big money league.

 

[Weebs210]

classic example of "you can't win your league in the first round, but you can lose it in the first round".

now, because this is fantasy football, there is NOTHING wrong with taking this guy at 1.03. Just please don't do it in a big money league.

Scared money don't make money. I'll take Bijan all day in big money leagues.

 

[rockaction]

I’m a very happy Bijan owner in dynasty, just wanted to share that there once was a guy like T-Rich.

Who had a pretty good year in his first redraft year, IIRC.

 

[travdogg]

I’m a very happy Bijan owner in dynasty, just wanted to share that there once was a guy like T-Rich.

Who had a pretty good year in his first redraft year, IIRC.

He was RB7 that year.

In fact, since 2012 every top-12 overall pick at RB has been at least a low-end RB1.

2012: Richardson RB7
2015: Gurley RB5
2016: Zeke RB3
2017: Fournette RB8
2017: CMC RB13 (with Stewart taking over 200 touches)
2018: Barkley RB2

Of those guys, I think Bijan has the most in common with Zeke, both as a talent, and going to a run heavy team with a good OL, that already had success without him.

I wouldn't fault anyone for taking Bijan at 1.3.

ETA: Of the same idea, Gibbs profiles a lot like rookie CMC.