RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (1 Viewer)

[FFWhiskey]

Starting to think Bijan is a little overrated. What are owners expecting?

Below are a list of RB's drafted in the top 10 over the last 10 years and their rookie season stats

Trent Richardson - 1300 total yards 9 TDs
Todd Gurley - 1300 yards 10 tds
Zeke - 1900 yards - 16 TD's
Leonard Fournette - 1300 yards 10 td's
CMC - only 1000 yards and less td's, but 80 receptions
Barkely - 2000 yards 15 tds


I expect Bijan has a 1300 yard/ 10 TD floor and a 2000 yard 15 TD ceiling. I think that Chubb is the safer pick but I like Bijan's ceiling more and the floor that i believe he has makes me want to take that risk.

I have taken Bijan as early as 1.06.

Trent Richardson's ADP was 3.01 to 3.08.
Todd Gurley's ADP was 5.04 to 5.12.
Ezekiel Elliott's ADP was 1.08 to 1.12.
Leonard Fournette's ADP was 2.12 to 3.03.
Christian McCaffery's ADP was 2.11 to 3.02.
Sarquan Barkley's ADP was 1.07 to 1.11.


Historically you're bragging about overpaying for a RB in this situation, but should he end up being rookie season Zeke or Barkley then it wouldn't matter even if you took him at 1.01.



"Upon further review. The ruling on the field is overturned. Bijan is not overvalued."



Carry on, fellas. Hype train is BACK on the tracks. Let's get that ADP up to 1.05. I guess I need to remind myself that nice things are expensive.


You want to own a Bentley? It's going to cost you in excess of $200,000.

 

[MTskibum]

Starting to think Bijan is a little overrated. What are owners expecting?

Below are a list of RB's drafted in the top 10 over the last 10 years and their rookie season stats

Trent Richardson - 1300 total yards 9 TDs
Todd Gurley - 1300 yards 10 tds
Zeke - 1900 yards - 16 TD's
Leonard Fournette - 1300 yards 10 td's
CMC - only 1000 yards and less td's, but 80 receptions
Barkely - 2000 yards 15 tds


I expect Bijan has a 1300 yard/ 10 TD floor and a 2000 yard 15 TD ceiling. I think that Chubb is the safer pick but I like Bijan's ceiling more and the floor that i believe he has makes me want to take that risk.

I have taken Bijan as early as 1.06.

Trent Richardson's ADP was 3.01 to 3.08.
Todd Gurley's ADP was 5.04 to 5.12.
Ezekiel Elliott's ADP was 1.08 to 1.12.
Leonard Fournette's ADP was 2.12 to 3.03.
Christian McCaffery's ADP was 2.11 to 3.02.
Sarquan Barkley's ADP was 1.07 to 1.11.


Historically you're bragging about overpaying for a RB in this situation, but should he end up being rookie season Zeke or Barkley then it wouldn't matter even if you took him at 1.01.

"Upon further review. The ruling on the field is overturned. Bijan is not overvalued."

Carry on, fellas. Hype train is BACK on the tracks. Let's get that ADP up to 1.05. I guess I need to remind myself that nice things are expensive.

You want to own a Bentley? It's going to cost you in excess of $200,000.

That is awesome, he has exactly 2 comps in the last 10 years where he had similar draft capital by both the nfl and fantasy redrafters.

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[packdog]

Of course he is not overrated. Drafted extremely high into an offense that runs, runs, and runs some more. Perfect landing spot. Top overall rb potential. Gotta pay for that and if you get him in later half of 1st round and can pair with one of the wr1s in round 2 I think you had a good start with loads of potential upside. Picking him in the top 5 overall may not be any value but it also may not be any lost value. And if he delivers as advertised its gonna be super fun. And fun is the point

 

[ourmanflint]

Of course he is not overrated. Drafted extremely high into an offense that runs, runs, and runs some more. Perfect landing spot. Top overall rb potential. Gotta pay for that and if you get him in later half of 1st round and can pair with one of the wr1s in round 2 I think you had a good start with loads of potential upside. Picking him in the top 5 overall may not be any value but it also may not be any lost value. And if he delivers as advertised its gonna be super fun. And fun is the point

Not worried in the least by TA and CP? Why run him into the ground?

 

[packdog]

Of course he is not overrated. Drafted extremely high into an offense that runs, runs, and runs some more. Perfect landing spot. Top overall rb potential. Gotta pay for that and if you get him in later half of 1st round and can pair with one of the wr1s in round 2 I think you had a good start with loads of potential upside. Picking him in the top 5 overall may not be any value but it also may not be any lost value. And if he delivers as advertised its gonna be super fun. And fun is the point

Not worried in the least by TA and CP? Why run him into the ground?

not particularly, especially cp. you don't draft a rb that high that possesses a massive degree of talent to not use him a lot trying to win games. and make no mistake the team wants to win. we see it every year almost where teams most perceive as bad are all of a sudden good enough to maybe make playoffs. a guy like bijan is a great way to accomplish that. a great way to sell tickets and jerseys too. the hawks want him to be a super stud, he wants to be a super stud, and he has the talent to be a super stud. my prediction...super stud

just think of how likely or unlikely he's being drafted as top 5, 3 or even 1 overall pick in 2024. now might be the only time you can get in a bit under that

 

[BoltNlava]

Better yet. Why is this guy getting drafted ahead of Nick Chubb?

Maybe people are weary of the CLE offense, but it's not like Ridder is a world-beater.

Weary vs. Wary...I think in the browns case it may be both.

 

[massraider]

Not worried in the least by TA and CP?

He's a solid bet to lead the NFL in touches.

Hey if Tyler Allgier worries you backing up Bijan effing Robinson, I don't think you are going to find a RB situation that doesn't worry you.

 

[eighsse2]

Better yet. Why is this guy getting drafted ahead of Nick Chubb?

Maybe people are weary of the CLE offense, but it's not like Ridder is a world-beater.

Weary vs. Wary...I think in the browns case it may be both.

I hear people say weary like that a lot. I think it's a funny case where the synonyms wary and leery get merged into a different word with a different meaning.

 

[ourmanflint]

Of course he is not overrated. Drafted extremely high into an offense that runs, runs, and runs some more. Perfect landing spot. Top overall rb potential. Gotta pay for that and if you get him in later half of 1st round and can pair with one of the wr1s in round 2 I think you had a good start with loads of potential upside. Picking him in the top 5 overall may not be any value but it also may not be any lost value. And if he delivers as advertised its gonna be super fun. And fun is the point

Not worried in the least by TA and CP? Why run him into the ground?

not particularly, especially cp. you don't draft a rb that high that possesses a massive degree of talent to not use him a lot trying to win games. and make no mistake the team wants to win. we see it every year almost where teams most perceive as bad are all of a sudden good enough to maybe make playoffs. a guy like bijan is a great way to accomplish that. a great way to sell tickets and jerseys too. the hawks want him to be a super stud, he wants to be a super stud, and he has the talent to be a super stud. my prediction...super stud

just think of how likely or unlikely he's being drafted as top 5, 3 or even 1 overall pick in 2024. now might be the only time you can get in a bit under that

Leading rusher in the NFL last year can't get a contract and his team finished 6-11.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Better yet. Why is this guy getting drafted ahead of Nick Chubb?

Maybe people are weary of the CLE offense, but it's not like Ridder is a world-beater.

Weary vs. Wary...I think in the browns case it may be both.

Voice to text doesn’t do homophones well.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Better yet. Why is this guy getting drafted ahead of Nick Chubb?

Maybe people are weary of the CLE offense, but it's not like Ridder is a world-beater.

Weary vs. Wary...I think in the browns case it may be both.

I hear people say weary like that a lot. I think it's a funny case where the synonyms wary and leery get merged into a different word with a different meaning.

Nope, just technology not understanding context. So homophones get mixed all the time. I get lazy & don’t feel like typing. My fault.

 

[packdog]

Of course he is not overrated. Drafted extremely high into an offense that runs, runs, and runs some more. Perfect landing spot. Top overall rb potential. Gotta pay for that and if you get him in later half of 1st round and can pair with one of the wr1s in round 2 I think you had a good start with loads of potential upside. Picking him in the top 5 overall may not be any value but it also may not be any lost value. And if he delivers as advertised its gonna be super fun. And fun is the point

Not worried in the least by TA and CP? Why run him into the ground?

not particularly, especially cp. you don't draft a rb that high that possesses a massive degree of talent to not use him a lot trying to win games. and make no mistake the team wants to win. we see it every year almost where teams most perceive as bad are all of a sudden good enough to maybe make playoffs. a guy like bijan is a great way to accomplish that. a great way to sell tickets and jerseys too. the hawks want him to be a super stud, he wants to be a super stud, and he has the talent to be a super stud. my prediction...super stud

just think of how likely or unlikely he's being drafted as top 5, 3 or even 1 overall pick in 2024. now might be the only time you can get in a bit under that

Leading rusher in the NFL last year can't get a contract and his team finished 6-11.

But was still the top fantasy rb

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Of course he is not overrated. Drafted extremely high into an offense that runs, runs, and runs some more. Perfect landing spot. Top overall rb potential. Gotta pay for that and if you get him in later half of 1st round and can pair with one of the wr1s in round 2 I think you had a good start with loads of potential upside. Picking him in the top 5 overall may not be any value but it also may not be any lost value. And if he delivers as advertised its gonna be super fun. And fun is the point

Not worried in the least by TA and CP? Why run him into the ground?

not particularly, especially cp. you don't draft a rb that high that possesses a massive degree of talent to not use him a lot trying to win games. and make no mistake the team wants to win. we see it every year almost where teams most perceive as bad are all of a sudden good enough to maybe make playoffs. a guy like bijan is a great way to accomplish that. a great way to sell tickets and jerseys too. the hawks want him to be a super stud, he wants to be a super stud, and he has the talent to be a super stud. my prediction...super stud

just think of how likely or unlikely he's being drafted as top 5, 3 or even 1 overall pick in 2024. now might be the only time you can get in a bit under that

Leading rusher in the NFL last year can't get a contract and his team finished 6-11.

But was still the top fantasy rb

Yeah, the Falcons could be one and 16 and Bijan Robinson could still be the best player in fantasy.

 

[massraider]

I hear people say weary like that a lot. I think it's a funny case where the synonyms wary and leery get merged into a different word with a different meaning.

They have heard the word, but never read it, I think that's what it is.

Always the same spelling errors, it's enough to make you loose your mind.

 

[eighsse2]

I hear people say weary like that a lot. I think it's a funny case where the synonyms wary and leery get merged into a different word with a different meaning.

They have heard the word, but never read it, I think that's what it is.

Always the same spelling errors, it's enough to make you loose your mind.

I hear people say it in speech on tv all the time. "I'm a little weary about" such-and-such.

 

[need2know]

I got bijan in round 2!

 

[titusbramble]

8 team leagues are hard

 

[packdog]

8 team leagues are hard

i have played 8 team leagues and up to 20 teams leagues for a long time. 8 team leagues don't deserve the knock. they are actually harder in many cases. once you get to 12+ it's basically set and forget all year in good health. in 8 team leagues you may have to decide who to start in 3 spots for 5 great options putting your prognosticating to the test in a far more challenging way then say a 16 teamer where you plug, play, and pray

 

[Loipz]

https://twitter.com/InBijanWeTrust/status/1693714675572023765?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1693714675572023765%7Ctwgr%5Eb08d77b033bb9955e14600edfc80ba5242742860%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sbnation.com%2Fnfl%2F2023%2F8%2F22%2F23841373%2Fbijan-robinson-mustard-ad-falcons-nfl

Idk about you guys but I’m sold.

 

[packdog]

https://twitter.com/InBijanWeTrust/status/1693714675572023765?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1693714675572023765%7Ctwgr%5Eb08d77b033bb9955e14600edfc80ba5242742860%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sbnation.com%2Fnfl%2F2023%2F8%2F22%2F23841373%2Fbijan-robinson-mustard-ad-falcons-nfl

Idk about you guys but I’m sold.

gonna be my team name on a couple with him

 

[need2know]

I got bijan in round 2!

A bunch of non believers. But I get your point.

 

[Largent]

Is there a better fit for a RB and team/coach/scheme than Bijan and Atlanta? Maybe CMC/Shanny.....and then when CMC gets his soft tissue injury by week 4.....I'm taking Bijan at 1.04 and not even blinking

 

[travdogg]

8 team leagues are hard

Its way tougher to win an 8-team league than a 16-team league in my opinion. 16 team leagues usually end up with about 10-11 teams that are garbage by midseason, and owners that if not throwing in the towel, have at least taken it out. 8-team leagues can really swing in any given week.

My absolute favorite league is an 8-team league with small benches. Every team is basically loaded, and the waivers are deep enough so that it's not a battle of attrition. I really don't get leagues bigger than 12 teams. What's fun about your championship game being decided by Mack Hollins vs Eno Benjamin or the like?

Is there a better fit for a RB and team/coach/scheme than Bijan and Atlanta? Maybe CMC/Shanny.....and then when CMC gets his soft tissue injury by week 4.....I'm taking Bijan at 1.04 and not even blinking

Zeke/Garrett was pretty ideal. Maybe McVay/Gurley? Obviously if Bijan hits those levels you'll be happy taking him at #4. I can see the argument, I've got Bijan #7 overall.

 

[Faust]

Dwain McFarland
RB Bijan Robinson is worth a Round 1 pick.

He handled 80% of the rushing attempts and posted a 60% route participation with the starters.

Since 2012, RBs that reached 65% and 60% averaged 20.8 points per game. That is attainable.

Outlook: Top-5 RB with RB1 overall upside.

https://twitter.com/dwainmcfarland/status/1693841183905096178?s=21

 

[LawFitz]

Serious questions, as someone who does indeed (mostly) believe in Bijon's talent, though my posts might seem otherwise...

I can think of only two rookie RBs who lived up to the hype this dude has right now for 2023 redraft...

Adrian Peterson and Saquan Barkley.

- Am I missing anyone else since 2000?

- Is Bijon on their level?

 

[Savatage79]

8 team leagues are hard

Its way tougher to win an 8-team league than a 16-team league in my opinion. 16 team leagues usually end up with about 10-11 teams that are garbage by midseason, and owners that if not throwing in the towel, have at least taken it out. 8-team leagues can really swing in any given week.

My absolute favorite league is an 8-team league with small benches. Every team is basically loaded, and the waivers are deep enough so that it's not a battle of attrition. I really don't get leagues bigger than 12 teams. What's fun about your championship game being decided by Mack Hollins vs Eno Benjamin or the like?

Is there a better fit for a RB and team/coach/scheme than Bijan and Atlanta? Maybe CMC/Shanny.....and then when CMC gets his soft tissue injury by week 4.....I'm taking Bijan at 1.04 and not even blinking

Zeke/Garrett was pretty ideal. Maybe McVay/Gurley? Obviously if Bijan hits those levels you'll be happy taking him at #4. I can see the argument, I've got Bijan #7 overall.

Totally agree.. Although 10 man is where I like to be and I like fairly large rosters so we use 11 man roster and 7 man, sometimes 6 man bench.. But yea when I see people post 14 16 man leagues or more it makes no sense to me. Once 2 or 3 dudes land those waiver snags, most of the time like you said a good portion of teams get trounced.

When most teams are cranking that's when it's a challenge, 10 mans for me are perfect but 8 are fun to.

 

[Lansdowne]

Serious questions, as someone who does indeed (mostly) believe in Bijon's talent, though my posts might seem otherwise...

I can think of only two rookie RBs who lived up to the hype this dude has right now for 2023 redraft...

Adrian Peterson and Saquan Barkley.

- Am I missing anyone else since 2000?

- Is Bijon on their level?

Ezekiel Elliott in 2016, and as far as NFL RB prospects go I’d say Bijan Robinson is absolutely on their level. Whether the production matches the hype we’ll have to wait and see, but I feel pretty good about the chances in an offense that squeezed out over 1,000 yards out of 5th round rookie Tyler Allgeier last season.

 

[Payne]

He is not "overrated" but he is being drafted too high. Sure, Smith loves to run the ball, but he has TWO guys that can do it. Smith himself said they may ride the hot hand. They are not going to win anything this year. Why ride this horse into the ground his rookie year? Makes no sense.

I would also draft him with caution.

 

[Chaka]

He is not "overrated" but he is being drafted too high. Sure, Smith loves to run the ball, but he has TWO guys that can do it. Smith himself said they may ride the hot hand. They are not going to win anything this year. Why ride this horse into the ground his rookie year? Makes no sense.

I would also draft him with caution.

Because Arthur Smith isn't guaranteed to have a job next year. He's going to ride whichever players give him the best chance to win the most games. It's the only way Smith can try to secure his own future.

 

[packdog]

He is not "overrated" but he is being drafted too high. Sure, Smith loves to run the ball, but he has TWO guys that can do it. Smith himself said they may ride the hot hand. They are not going to win anything this year. Why ride this horse into the ground his rookie year? Makes no sense.

I would also draft him with caution.

Because Arthur Smith isn't guaranteed to have a job next year. He's going to ride whichever players give him the best chance to win the most games. It's the inly way Smith can try to secure his own future.

i never get the "it doesn't make sense to run the rb we drafted to run" logic. it makes no sense to me. are they gonna save him for the next team that signs cause you won't pay a contract? if rb is devalued what are you saving them for? not only do coaches wanna keep their jobs but rbs are so devalued it makes more sense to use em as much as possible if they are so easily replaced. in bijan's case i assume the hawks think he's a little more special and talented then your average rb and could be a key player in helping you be competitive in the NFC south. oh, and the hawks like to run a lot. i ain't gonna buy it making more sense that allegier and cpatt get a load of carries over the guy they just drafted at the top of the first round

 

[Loipz]

He is not "overrated" but he is being drafted too high. Sure, Smith loves to run the ball, but he has TWO guys that can do it. Smith himself said they may ride the hot hand. They are not going to win anything this year. Why ride this horse into the ground his rookie year? Makes no sense.

I would also draft him with caution.

Because Arthur Smith isn't guaranteed to have a job next year. He's going to ride whichever players give him the best chance to win the most games. It's the inly way Smith can try to secure his own future.

i never get the "it doesn't make sense to run the rb we drafted to run" logic. it makes no sense to me. are they gonna save him for the next team that signs cause you won't pay a contract? if rb is devalued what are you saving them for? not only do coaches wanna keep their jobs but rbs are so devalued it makes more sense to use em as much as possible if they are so easily replaced. in bijan's case i assume the hawks think he a little more special and talented then your average rb and could be a key player in helping you be competitive in the NFC south

Yeah I never quite understood that. They took him 8th overall. They’re gonna run him until he pukes

 

[travdogg]

Serious questions, as someone who does indeed (mostly) believe in Bijon's talent, though my posts might seem otherwise...

I can think of only two rookie RBs who lived up to the hype this dude has right now for 2023 redraft...

Adrian Peterson and Saquan Barkley.

- Am I missing anyone else since 2000?

- Is Bijon on their level?

I'd say 2016 Zeke, and Bijan's situation is eerily similar to his, in that, he's going to a team that wants to be run heavy and is already successful at it without him.

He is not "overrated" but he is being drafted too high. Sure, Smith loves to run the ball, but he has TWO guys that can do it. Smith himself said they may ride the hot hand. They are not going to win anything this year. Why ride this horse into the ground his rookie year? Makes no sense.

I would also draft him with caution.

Because Arthur Smith isn't guaranteed to have a job next year. He's going to ride whichever players give him the best chance to win the most games. It's the only way Smith can try to secure his own future.

This 100%. Arthur Smith is very much on the hot seat. He and Kevin Stefanski are 2 of the HC's I think of when I think of hot seats, with Ron Rivera being #1. I also think Dan Campbell is a sneaky candidate if the Lions fall well short of the hype, as they are being talked about as a Super Bowl candidate (which I think is crazy) but could easily finish with 7 wins in my opinion.

Same reason I think both Sam Howell, but especially Desmond Ridder might have shorter leashes than they should as young developing QBs, they could both have new HC's before the season is over.

 

[3 hour lunch]

Definitely set up for success but price reflects it. The tier seems to be him with Barkley, Pollard and Henry. I have a hard time taking him over those proven guys with little competition, but shiny new toys are exciting.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Definitely set up for success but price reflects it. The tier seems to be him with Barkley, Pollard and Henry. I have a hard time taking him over those proven guys with little competition, but shiny new toys are exciting.

Maybe over Henry. Risk/reward with Henry, and while I drafted Henry in one league I don’t think it’s controversial to say that one of these years the bottom is gonna fall out from under him.

But Henry is still the much more proven commodity.

 

[Tanner9919]

anyone putting Pollard in a tier with Barkley isn't watching football. Pollard has never had more 193 carries in any season the NFL. never more than 78 carries in any of his 3 years in college . People saying Brobinson is overrated while at the same time gushing over Pollard need to take a long look at themselves in the mirror. you need to find another hobby. This Pollard guy won't last, he hasn't shown the ability to carry a full load.ever. so why should we start believing now? so bizarre IMO.

Robinson has shown he can carry the rock. he's also a fantastic receiver. Falcons are going to move the ball at will. They have Drake London to keep defenses honest. Pitts, although a decoy, demands respect over the middle of the field.

Robinson is being called a can't miss blue chip like T. Lawrence, Peyton Manning, Barkley, Zeke. Eddie George. Marshall Faulk. don't buck the trend, if NFL personnel rate his as the best prospect, perhaps better than Barkley, you listen. plain and simple.
Trent Richardson was never considered a blue chipper, can't miss prospect entering the NFL.

f you believe Arty Smith's coach-speak nonsense smokescreen 'we're going to ride the hot hand', I have a bridge in brooklyn I'd like to sell you. I also have a vintage WW2 French military rifle for sale, it's never been fired and only dropped once.

 

[LawFitz]

Falcons are going to move the ball at will. They have Drake London to keep defenses honest.

Who is their QB?

Trent Richardson was never considered a blue chipper, can't miss prospect entering the NFL.

You sure about this? I seem to recall different. I am not sure.

 

[Chaka]

Falcons are going to move the ball at will. They have Drake London to keep defenses honest.

Who is their QB?

Trey Lance???

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

anyone putting Pollard in a tier with Barkley isn't watching football.

For FF it’s all about projecting upside.

I’m not saying it’s right that they’re in the same tier, I’m just saying it’s logical based on experts/writers/sharks projecting him as the potential FF RB1.

They do this by adding the TDs Elliott vultured to Pollard’s 2022 stat line.

Again, not saying that’s correct. I’m just saying.

 

[TapRackBang]

There's NO way I'm drafting a rookie RB in the first round of my fantasy drafts.
No. Way.

He's proven nothing.

 

[zamboni]

There's NO way I'm drafting a rookie RB in the first round of my fantasy drafts.
No. Way.

He's proven nothing.

Fair approach and certainly the conservative route - it’s tough to gamble with your first round pick. But if he’s all that - and certainly in the range of outcomes - he can launch your team.

 

[Smack Tripper]

Serious questions, as someone who does indeed (mostly) believe in Bijon's talent, though my posts might seem otherwise...

I can think of only two rookie RBs who lived up to the hype this dude has right now for 2023 redraft...

Adrian Peterson and Saquan Barkley.

- Am I missing anyone else since 2000?

- Is Bijon on their level?

I think he is

now, drastically different draft capital but the comp I see is Clinton Portis, I think I’d sign for him matching that rookie year

 

[travdogg]

anyone putting Pollard in a tier with Barkley isn't watching football.

For FF it’s all about projecting upside.

I’m not saying it’s right that they’re in the same tier, I’m just saying it’s logical based on experts/writers/sharks projecting him as the potential FF RB1.

They do this by adding the TDs Elliott vultured to Pollard’s 2022 stat line.

Again, not saying that’s correct. I’m just saying.

I'd add to that, that I watch a ton of football. I'm not sure Barkley does anything better than Pollard.

I've never liked this idea of so and so can't do this because they haven't yet. Especially when that player has incredible efficiency.

The case for Barkley over Pollard (or Bijan) is that he could see 400 touches and they won't. Talent wise, I think they are both well above him.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

You sure about this? I seem to recall different. I am not sure.

You are correct.

 

[pinkstapler]

anyone putting Pollard in a tier with Barkley isn't watching football. Pollard has never had more 193 carries in any season the NFL. never more than 78 carries in any of his 3 years in college . People saying Brobinson is overrated while at the same time gushing over Pollard need to take a long look at themselves in the mirror. you need to find another hobby. This Pollard guy won't last, he hasn't shown the ability to carry a full load.ever. so why should we start believing now? so bizarre IMO.

Robinson has shown he can carry the rock. he's also a fantastic receiver. Falcons are going to move the ball at will. They have Drake London to keep defenses honest. Pitts, although a decoy, demands respect over the middle of the field.

Robinson is being called a can't miss blue chip like T. Lawrence, Peyton Manning, Barkley, Zeke. Eddie George. Marshall Faulk. don't buck the trend, if NFL personnel rate his as the best prospect, perhaps better than Barkley, you listen. plain and simple.
Trent Richardson was never considered a blue chipper, can't miss prospect entering the NFL.

f you believe Arty Smith's coach-speak nonsense smokescreen 'we're going to ride the hot hand', I have a bridge in brooklyn I'd like to sell you. I also have a vintage WW2 French military rifle for sale, it's never been fired and only dropped once.

Not sure where anyone is putting Pollard in Barkley or Bijan Tier. Barkley and Bijan are going mid first, Pollard is going mid 2nd.

Also you seem to be conflating what Pollard is capable of and what opportunity he's been given. Has he ever been given more carries than 193? Nope. While you are free to believe that he won't be able to handle more than that, no one can say definitively if he can until he actually has that opportunity. And again, maybe I've missed the commenters claiming he'll be a 250+ back, but considering he was RB8 last season on <200, what does it matter? He's not Henry, he doesn't need 20 touches a game to battering ram defenses until they wear down and he can finally break a long one in the second half. He's talented and dynamic enough to rip 10 yard gains from the first snap. He has a floor of 50 receptions for the season and does well enough after the catch to get a solid amount of YAC. And he scored 9 rushing TDs with Zeke, the guy who's so excellent in the red zone most people want to throw 225lb Rhamondre in the dumpster saying he'll never get a look there. So if I'm going out on a limb to predict an increase in Pollards usage, it'll be at the goal line and increase his chances of scoring a few more times. Either way, he's being drafted as an RB7 after coming in as an RB8 last season. You seem wildly down on a guy who's pretty much being projected to do what he did last season with the only real change being he has less competition for premium touches. I guess there is his extensive injury history and all those games he always misses to worry about....

Oh wait... never mind....

 

[TapRackBang]

There's NO way I'm drafting a rookie RB in the first round of my fantasy drafts.
No. Way.

He's proven nothing.

Fair approach and certainly the conservative route - it’s tough to gamble with your first round pick. But if he’s all that - and certainly in the range of outcomes - he can launch your team.

And if he struggles to make top 3 RB (heck, even top 5 RB), then you're in trouble.

There's no floor. It's all upside.

 

[Chaka]

If any position is NFL ready out of college it's RB.

Bijan is one of a very small handful of RBs with a clear path to 300+ touches. I have no qualms with taking him in the first round of redrafts.

 

[Chaka]

There's NO way I'm drafting a rookie RB in the first round of my fantasy drafts.
No. Way.

He's proven nothing.

Fair approach and certainly the conservative route - it’s tough to gamble with your first round pick. But if he’s all that - and certainly in the range of outcomes - he can launch your team.

And if he struggles to make top 3 RB (heck, even top 5 RB), then you're in trouble.

There's no floor. It's all upside.

What do you mean by that?

Injury before kickoff week one? That is literally the only way he doesn't have a floor.

What is the logic that suggests Bijan isn't in line for 300+ touches? Third on the depth chart? Allegier? Should those be considered likely concerns?

How many touches do you believe he will reasonably see this season?

The Falcons didn't buy a Cadillac to keep it in the garage.

 

[pinkstapler]

There's NO way I'm drafting a rookie RB in the first round of my fantasy drafts.
No. Way.

He's proven nothing.

Fair approach and certainly the conservative route - it’s tough to gamble with your first round pick. But if he’s all that - and certainly in the range of outcomes - he can launch your team.

And if he struggles to make top 3 RB (heck, even top 5 RB), then you're in trouble.

There's no floor. It's all upside.

What do you mean by that?

Injury before kickoff week one? That is literally the only way he doesn't have a floor.

What is the logic that suggests Bijan isn't in line for 300+ touches? Third on the depth chart? Allegier? Should those be considered likely concerns?

How many touches do you believe he will reasonably see this season?

The Falcons didn't buy a Cadillac to keep it in the garage.

I could be wrong, and not saying I agree; but I think he meant relative to his ADP there's no floor. As in, he needs to finish as a top 3 RB to return the ADP investment. Finishing say 5-9 at RB would be returning a value short of where you bought him and considered a loss overall.

As usual I'm in the middle myself. When Bijan falls to the end of the 1st, I'll gladly take him there. But I keep finding myself missing him in leagues as he's going 5/6/7. I'm semi biased though as I'm high on a number of 2nd/3rd round backs, as well as more dead zone guys than usual; so I've been defaulting to WR a lot in the 1st round, and another by the end of the 3rd. I haven't crunched numbers to back up my feelings, but regardless it feels like the scoring differential between Tier 1 to 2 to 3 WRs is greater than the differential between late Tier 1 to 2 to 3 RBs. IOW, I'd rather have a top flight WR or two than RB because the scoring drop off feels more significant. Plus from the later end, I see a more likely path to Dobbins or Mattison finishing in the top 12 than similarly priced WRs like Jeudy or Watson.

 

[Chaka]

but I think he meant relative to his ADP there's no floor.

That makes sense but how is that different than any other pick at the top of the draft? Or any of the first few rounds really?

The crux of the argument seems to amount to rookie=bad. And if we were talking about a QB, WR or TE I would agree but RB? Absolutely not. History is pretty clear about this. Rookie RBs as a position group have a higher hit rate than any position. And they generally seem to perform commensurate to their draft position. Certainly within one standard deviation.

McCaffrey is a notable disappointment over the last seven years but even he put up 1,000+ yards & 7 TDs with 80 receptions.

Injury is the bigger concern when considering RBs vs QBs, WRs or Kelce at the top of your draft but is McCaffrey or Henry a safer bet to stay healthy for 17 than a rookie?

I seldom take RBs in the first round of my draft because of injury risk. But I'm in a super-flex league so I have a lot more options than someone in one QB formats. If I was in a one QB league I would have Bijan as a top three back, behind Chubb & Ekeler (McCaffrey and Henry represent bigger injury risks IMO).

I have no problem with someone taking Bijan with a high pick.

 

[zamboni]

I have no problem with someone taking Bijan with a high pick.

Starting to see the merits of this more. RBs definitely get hurt more, but there's an ongoing dearth of 3-down backs these days, while WR is much deeper. In most leagues, you could probably get Bijon in the mid-1st and still come back around with a top notch WR in the 2nd.