Deamon
Footballguy
And fitz may or may not be better. How many extra wins do you think fitz gets them over the qbs they had last year?
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RB Antonio Gibson, NE (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Antonio Gibson's 2021 season statistics will have nothing to do with whether WFT wins 7, 8 or 11 games.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
Deamon
Footballguy
And how many do you take away with the better division this year and much much harder schedule?
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
Deamon
Footballguy
Ok so you think overall, 1-2 extra wins for the skins this year. (+2-3 for QB, -1 for the schedule).
So we agree exactly on 8-9 wins for them this year.
nittanylion
Footballguy
Agree about 9-10 W for a WC. IMHO, it's likely only going to take 8-9 W's to win the NFCE this Season. I can't see them coming out on the right end of tiebreakers with other WC contenders. Division title is their only way in, I think.
NightStalkers
Footballguy
That may not be true depending if he gets more recieving work. If he does and they are behind more then he benefits. If they are ahead more he might get more carries but not sure if he can take a whole load by himself for carries. Depens on how the offense works with new pieces. We don't know that yet...Dr. Octopus said:
Biabreakable
Footballguy
As far as wins above replacement level of players I seem to recall PFF or someone doing a study and they found that RBs barely have any. Of course QBs have the most and I think edge rusher is next. I dont recall the entire hierarchy of this right now but RB had the least influence on winning games IIRC. It is part of the RBs dont matter argument.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
Not the only improvements for the team. I am not far off, but I expect 9-10 winsDeamon said:
Deamon
Footballguy
Fair enough. So almost the same.
They also some some key players too. That's the thing with off season improvements. Almost every team in theory improves on both sides of the ball. I would say Dallas and NYG improved (outside of the qb which you've already baked into your projection) more than Wash has.
I think wash is a decent team and definitely trending in the right direction. But they were bad to below average last year and I think we'll see a bit more of their true colours when they actually face some good opponents. Only 1 win THIS year vs a team with more than 6 wins isn't going to cut it.
Am excited to see how they do now though after all this good discussion.
NightStalkers
Footballguy
Sorry if I seemed to derail this thread. However the successs Wash had last year on Offense could be quite different than this year. (I am not a big fan of moving moses ) Will they succeed in having an appreciable jump on offense? That will feed into the reults that Gibson has. Defending them last year had to be much easier, just double McLaurin, Thomas, and watch whoever was at RB in the passing game with a decent cover linebacker and you had them closed down as none of their qb's had either had the mobility, or the weapons to threaten a defense at most of the offensive skill positions. This is why i brought up about their overall improvement on offense which should produce more wins. Could i be wrong absolutely. The QB and the Oline have to produce, they can't afford a lot of injuries and that happens sometimes like 49ers last year.
My main question about Gibson is can he take the pounding? He is a lot like Ettiene in that regard, plenty of athleticism but not sure of the durability. The fact they didn't draft another RB is a sign of hope, although i like Patterson as UFA.
My main question about Gibson is can he take the pounding? He is a lot like Ettiene in that regard, plenty of athleticism but not sure of the durability. The fact they didn't draft another RB is a sign of hope, although i like Patterson as UFA.
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Tanner9919
Footballguy
the best RB stats over the past 20 years , aside from Barry Sanders and a scant few others, have come from teams with winning records.productive RBs don't come on bad teams with low winning percentages. I'll bet the farm that Gibson outperforms ( by a large margin) what Miles Sanders does in 2021. Iggles forecast to win just 5 games. WFT forecast to win 10+ games.Dr. Octopus said:
Fantasy index has done this exact story over and over each year since 1995. the method is simple - don't pick RBs on lousy teams. they never produce, mainly because their teams are behind, or their teams are against 8-man fronts constantly, etc.
of the 10 worst teams from 2020, can you name one RB who was anything close to a top player at his position?
so, NE, Jets, Atl, Cincy, Jags, Lions, Iggles, Denver, Car, SF. Can you name any RB who performed admirably from any of these teams in 2020? Joe Mixon? he got hurt. Miles Sanders? he didn't break 1000 yards rushing. and this is just a small sample of bad teams with bad RBGs.there are more to choose from. Zeke Elliott ran for 979 yards last season.
Gibson's 2021 production will in fact be directly tied to their W-L record , as will any RB from any other team. it's a proven fact over the past 20-30 years.the outlier is Barry and pretty much only Barry.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
This has actually been disproven year after year - especially with RBs that can be used as pass catchers.
And on your list for 2020, James Robinson, Melvin Gordon, Mike Davis, Raheem Mostert/Wilson and D. Swift all put up good fantasy numbers on the teams you listed. The other teams had RBBC ((NE) or just bad RBs (NYJ).
Oh and by the way Washington itself wasn’t a very good team last year, they were 7-9.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Seems like it has been nothing but positives for Gibson to improve from last years numbers (full training camp and offseason, better QB and outside weapons to keep defenses honest, no major competition brought in). What are your reasons for your forecast?
Ostro
Footballguy
Nothing like that. I've just been doing this a long time and there's one year in particular that sticks out. 2009. Both DeAngelo Williams and Steve Slaton looked like surefire quality fantasy RBs going forward.
His numbers last year were nice. Sophomore slump and I like the kid the Redskins drafted behind him. Give me another year of production and then I'll consider him. Very cautious with RBs.
His numbers last year were nice. Sophomore slump and I like the kid the Redskins drafted behind him. Give me another year of production and then I'll consider him. Very cautious with RBs.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
So if a rookie running back has a good first year you tend to avoid them their next year? Seems like an odd strategy.
He's being drafted at 2.04 (12 team) looking at ADP rankings from https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/ppr
If pressed to draft today, I would pull the trigger on the following players ahead of him:
DeAndre Swift, Joe Mixon, Josh Jacobs, Chris Carson, and JK Dobbins
Just seems like the hype train is running a little out of control. People are valuing him near DeAndre Hopkins (2.03), DK Metcalf (2.05), Calvin Ridley (2.08), AJ Brown (2.11). I get we like the upside, but all those players have lived up to their potential (year in, year out).
I like Gibson's upside. But comparative to Najee Harris at (6.11) and Chase Edmonds at (6.05). Seems like I'd rather stash a DK Metcalf and pile together a few Chris Carsons to go with a Chase Edmonds.
If pressed to draft today, I would pull the trigger on the following players ahead of him:
DeAndre Swift, Joe Mixon, Josh Jacobs, Chris Carson, and JK Dobbins
Just seems like the hype train is running a little out of control. People are valuing him near DeAndre Hopkins (2.03), DK Metcalf (2.05), Calvin Ridley (2.08), AJ Brown (2.11). I get we like the upside, but all those players have lived up to their potential (year in, year out).
I like Gibson's upside. But comparative to Najee Harris at (6.11) and Chase Edmonds at (6.05). Seems like I'd rather stash a DK Metcalf and pile together a few Chris Carsons to go with a Chase Edmonds.
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See post below. He's being drafted at 2.04 ahead of DK Metcalf. It's clear that at his current position you need to REAAAACH to get him. So maybe he won't "bust" this year, but relative to draft position (and unless you've already acquired in dynasty), I don't think there's much value to be had.
He needs to match DK Metcalf's:
83 receptions / 1,303 yards / 10 touchdowns
Because that's the quality of player you're passing up to draft him this year.
I've already pointed out in a previous post that I like RBs rounds later than him just as much as him. Thanks for assuming the worst of me. If you want to draft this guy over DK Metcalf, good luck!!
You can get Najee Harris 4 rounds later.
You can get DeAndre Swift a round later.
You can get JK Dobbins a round later.
You can get Miles Sanders a round later.
You can get Joe Mixon a round later.
You can get Josh Jacobs a round later.
It's not really that scarce this year, pal. I understand that rankings are subjective, but he's being drafted as a RB1 when I think he fits into the tier of guys posted above much more.
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I play dynasty for the majority of my leagues, but I have no problem taking Gibson ahead of every one of those other RBs.
And Metcalf will be hard-pressed to repeat his 2020 numbers with the way Seattle's OC wants to run their offense. I'll happily take a 3rd round WR rather than take the risk that DK loses 25-35% of last year's production.
Agree to disagree. I don't doubt you've had success with the way you view things. I think Metcalf is one of those pitbulls that is going to find a way to get his no matter what the situation is. As long as he's motivated, he's gonna ball.
I see a lot of T.O in him, attitude wise. He wants to be the best receiver in the league.
I'm not going to turn this into the DK thread, this will be my final say on the matter.
But I guess you're saying that he wasn't motivated over the final 8 games of 2020. After all, he only logged 515 yards and 2 TDs. His average catches were right in line with the first half of the season, but his production fell off a cliff.
Or was it that the situation changed to cause this pitbull to turn into a corgi?
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Where are you getting these rankings? I've looked at multiple rankings and see Harris, Mixon, Gibson, Dobbins, Sanders all in a very tight grouping. Swift has dropped slightly, Jacobs is a bit later (because the Raiders don't think he's very good and brought in Drake). I don't see anywhere that Harris is 4 rounds later than Gibson.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Wow. Thx. If it really played out that way in real life, I'd gladly take Najee that late over Gibson in the early 2nd. I don't believe that is reflective of reality -- but that's just me. None of the rankings I've looked at remotely match that ADP data.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Harris is going 1st to 3rd round in FFPC redrafts. Sometimes before Gibson. I've also seen Gibson fall to the 3rd. It is right where both of them should be. Mixon goes right next to him but yes those other backs go *about* one round after Gibson.
In my book "one round" comes down to personal preference and is probably within a very small margin of error in terms of how much better/worse does the RB you prefer at ~2.04 perform than the one you can get at ~3.04.
And you can get both. Or take a Metcalf there if you prefer. Seems fine.
In my book "one round" comes down to personal preference and is probably within a very small margin of error in terms of how much better/worse does the RB you prefer at ~2.04 perform than the one you can get at ~3.04.
And you can get both. Or take a Metcalf there if you prefer. Seems fine.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Okay good, I thought the world had gone mad. I think they've been running drafts all summer (before a lot of these guys got drafted). So the rookie data is probably from people bored and not drafting them since we don't know where they were slotted.
Lmk if you have any links to more credible data for me to scrutinize.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Plus DeAngelo Williams was a rookie in 2006, had his best season 2008 and was sill good after that despite sharing the backfield with Jonathan Stewart.
kutta
Footballguy
The link you posted starts on April 21. The NFL draft was April 29-May1. So it is definite skewed. Would be good to get the data starting May 1.
Deamon
Footballguy
Where are you getting these numbers? Wash are not forecast to win 10+ Games. Vegas has them forecast at 8.0.
Philly is not forecast to win just 5 Games. Vegas has them forecast at 6.5.
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We're all having trouble with numbers today. We're trying out best but Mondays are tough.
Wash are not forecast to win 10+ Games. Vegas has them forecast at 8.0.
Philly is not forecast to win just 5 Games. Vegas has them forecast at 6.5.
Deamon
Footballguy
I agree with his premise (RB's on good teams being much more valuable), and also that Gibson will outperform Sanders (For a variety of reasons, 1 being that Wash is a better team than Philly).
But where he got his 5 and 10+ is quite confusing and so very off.
shadrap
Footballguy
hey man, don't take it personal. I like your opinion as it makes sense so stick around & avoid slap fights in here. not worth it, but your opinion is.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I'll go ahead and bang my daily Gibson drum with this: He got 16.2 carries and targets per game through the first 11 games (of his career*) before his injury last year. He got 17.7 carries and targets per game in the 6 games leading up to the injury.
If we set the over under on Gibson's 2021 carries and targets per game at 17, I would think the majority of people would *assume* he goes over that. Not necessarily a lot but 20 per game seems like a lock and the baseline of 17 is something that I feel like lots of people aren't seeing as realistic for some reason. And I can't figure out why. There isn't any rational reason to think they're going to give him the ball *less* than last year. That isn't the way these stories go.
His injury was turf toe which is not a long term concern and IMO if the argument was that he broke down over the course of the season, then I have to ask is it because they used him more than you'd like? That seems a weird complaint. Turf toe happens to RBs sometimes. It just does. There is no reason to think he has any injury concern going forward.
*rookie COVID season converting from WR to RB
If we set the over under on Gibson's 2021 carries and targets per game at 17, I would think the majority of people would *assume* he goes over that. Not necessarily a lot but 20 per game seems like a lock and the baseline of 17 is something that I feel like lots of people aren't seeing as realistic for some reason. And I can't figure out why. There isn't any rational reason to think they're going to give him the ball *less* than last year. That isn't the way these stories go.
His injury was turf toe which is not a long term concern and IMO if the argument was that he broke down over the course of the season, then I have to ask is it because they used him more than you'd like? That seems a weird complaint. Turf toe happens to RBs sometimes. It just does. There is no reason to think he has any injury concern going forward.
*rookie COVID season converting from WR to RB
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
ffmail4me
Footballguy
nittanylion
Footballguy
I've posted several times in this Thread and other related threads. Fairly certain that in some posts, I've quoted you in an attempt to give you a direct response. I'm a fellow National High-Stakes competitor, who mutually respects you as such, and one of my deeper areas of knowledge is the WFTskins.
Maybe you just don't buy what I'm selling, so much so that you're not interested in responding. It's fine to agree to disagree, it's a valid part of a conversation about opinion. You and I both know how risky it can be to go all-in on a Player. I read a boatload of your posts, and for the most part, enjoy them quite a bit. As an objective observer, who's also more than just a casual fan of all things WFTskins, it looks to me like you are way beyond all-in on Gibson. I think there's good reason to exercise caution, and I've opined about that. In a nutshell, I believe all Redskins are being overvalued and overdrafted right now. The WFTskins have a very specific goal this Season: win the NFCE with a 7-to-9 W record, and see what happens in the Playoffs. If they are being honest with themselves (and I think Rivera is very capable of that), that's what they are, nine wins max, and that better be good enough to win the division, because it won't be good enough to win a WC. The offense is being constructed to win as a Team, with contributions coming from several elements that will serve to cannabalize each other's fantasy value (adding Samuel alone is going to share RB touches). They are not going to achieve their goal on the back of Gibson/McLaurin alone. Second, a 3rd RB (besides Gibson and McKissic) is going to emerge some time this summer, if this Team is realistically pursuing it's goal. I really, really like Gibson. I really like McKissic. Peyton Barber is a waste of a Roster Spot. The back who replaces him (a bruising slasher) is going to cut into RB touches, because the right fit for the RB room is a guy who does things well that Gibson and McKissic do not, and will do them better than Barber, and for the WFTskins to achieve their goal, that guy is going to get work.
It's just my opinion, but if I'm correct, I could see both Gibson/McLaurin hovering around RB18/WR18 all Season long. In a 12-Team League, that's right in the middle of RB2/WR2. If that's what you're expecting, and the price you're paying is commensurate, then sign me up too.
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Here's my big issue.The assumption that this guy can handle the workload. The guy had 44 receptions and 33 rushing attempts in his entire college career.
As you also noted in your post, he got injured last year and I get it, "football players get hurt". Hell, the guy everyone comps him to and "wants him to be" Christian McCaffery is off the field more than he's on it.
I'm just not one to tie my horse to a RB who's never proven he can do it. We see countless stud college runningbacks that can't handle the wear and tear of the NFL. I personally like the UDFA Jarret Patterson out of Buffalo who carried the ball 325 times and scored 20 touchdowns in 2019.
In fact, Patterson touched the ball more in 2019 (325 times) than Gibson has touched the ball in College (77 touches) and NFL (206 touches) combined. There's a lot to like, don't get me wrong, there's a reason the Redskins drafted a guy with 77 total career touches at Memphis in the 3rd round and shoe horned him in as their RB.
He's still less than a year at his new position and still hasn't proved to me he is durable enough to handle the workload that projections are thrusting upon him. On paper, you give Marion Barber 320 carries a season and he's going for 1,400 / 15 Touchdowns. Problem is, Marion Barber is going to injured by carry #125.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
@Shaq90 for sure, give me a guy who's had the tread worn off the tires in college versus fresh legs. Also, CMC had one injury last year. Other than that - I'm not sure he has missed a game. You hate Gibson, we get it. I don't think anyone is tying their horse to one QB. They are just stating legitimate reason to expect increased production from a dude who had Dwayne Haskins quarterbacking his team.
Flying Elvis
Footballguy
To be fair, Corgis are generally mean little monsters that are way more likely to bite someone. Good point overall, questionable choice for the analogy.
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