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RB Antonio Gibson, NE (5 Viewers)

Didn't work. I offered 1.6, 2.1, 3.12, and third next year for Gibson and the 2.10.

He said he'd need more than the 1.6 to move Gibson. My offer was a little light, but it looked to me like two starters for one. But I'm sure he'll be good with Gibson and...uh..Javian Hawkins or whatever.
I own Gibson and would probably take that offer. But, I have pretty good RB’s (Henry, Akers, Gibson, David Johnson,, Gaskin, Penny) and I could use a little WR help and I like the rookie WR’s.

But roster aside, I think it’s a fair offer.

 
Didn't work. I offered 1.6, 2.1, 3.12, and third next year for Gibson and the 2.10.

He said he'd need more than the 1.6 to move Gibson. My offer was a little light, but it looked to me like two starters for one. But I'm sure he'll be good with Gibson and...uh..Javian Hawkins or whatever.
If you offered same deal but didn't ask for his second it would be fair.

 
If you offered same deal but didn't ask for his second it would be fair.


That is kind of what I was thinking as well.

Sounds like the other guy values Gibson more than that though. Maybe he is right.
He might be. But this is kind of like the real-life Texans situation. If all you have is one guy, you're not winning many games. You should try to turn that into multiple pieces even if none of the individual pieces are independently as good as the one piece. But then again, maybe he feels better about his roster than I do. 

Anyway, there's one reference point as to his perceived value.  

 
He might be. But this is kind of like the real-life Texans situation. If all you have is one guy, you're not winning many games. You should try to turn that into multiple pieces even if none of the individual pieces are independently as good as the one piece. But then again, maybe he feels better about his roster than I do. 

Anyway, there's one reference point as to his perceived value.  
I agree with your take on this but I also think the offer wasn't enough. Not bad though. I'd also remove the 2nd coming back to you as others have said. 

But what this guy should be doing is exactly what you're talking about and liquidating him. He may very well like his roster a lot more than you do, and I've seen that pattern before with last place teams or those close to it. They don't get it. He needs to make the realization and then advertise and can probably get a better deal. 

Seeing as how you are obviously a motivated buyer, if I were the other guy I'd be coming for your future 1st pretty hard to go along with the 1.06 and 2.01. And I would be looking to add something small on my side to make it happen. I'm sure you don't want to add your future 1st but is there any secondary piece you'd be willing to add on his side that would get you there?

 
I don't necessarily disagree with your guys' premise, but if I have one guy to build around then why wouldn't I keep him?  What good does it do me to turn him into two ok guys?

In my league I'm not getting a RB at 1.6 and you're asking me to trade away my only one for a WR and something early in the 2nd.  I wouldn't take the deal without a RB in return or another 1st.

 
I don't necessarily disagree with your guys' premise, but if I have one guy to build around then why wouldn't I keep him?  What good does it do me to turn him into two ok guys?

In my league I'm not getting a RB at 1.6 and you're asking me to trade away my only one for a WR and something early in the 2nd.  I wouldn't take the deal without a RB in return or another 1st.
It depends on what the rest of your roster looks like. 

If I'm starting Gibson and Breshad Perriman, I'd rather take a chance on Jaylen Waddle and Kenneth Gainwell (just an of the top of my head example) because I believe the second set of players will score more combined points.

 
It depends on what the rest of your roster looks like. 

If I'm starting Gibson and Breshad Perriman, I'd rather take a chance on Jaylen Waddle and Kenneth Gainwell (just an of the top of my head example) because I believe the second set of players will score more combined points.
Right, and if I don't have anything else on my team (like this guy), I'll stick with the guy who I "know" is going to be a stud for me rather than take a gamble on Gainwell.  I can get a WR anytime anywhere.

 
Right, and if I don't have anything else on my team (like this guy), I'll stick with the guy who I "know" is going to be a stud for me rather than take a gamble on Gainwell.  I can get a WR anytime anywhere.
I think the key word is "know." The reason I thought the trade was fair is because I'm not so certain that Gibson is a sure thing. I think he'll be decent, but I'm not sure he's going to be a stud. If you feel strongly that way, I agree you should keep him.

 
I think the key word is "know." The reason I thought the trade was fair is because I'm not so certain that Gibson is a sure thing. I think he'll be decent, but I'm not sure he's going to be a stud. If you feel strongly that way, I agree you should keep him.
For sure, it definitely does depend on how you feel about Gibson.

 
The valuation is so subjective from owner to owner on picks.  

I would rather have Gibson than 1.1 - I have seen what he can do with an awful QB and one other playmaker in the offense on a short offseason, but I have yet to see Najee Harris, ETN or J. Williams play in the NFL.  Do they look good, sure.  Just playing devil's advocate but I would rather have a 1.6, 2.1 and a RB of lesser value to allow me the opportunity to maybe pick Pitts or a falling RB?  Then have another RB to start... come back around and get Marshall out of LSU.

I also think it is a mistake to think getting a WR at 1.6 is a good thing.  If I don't have JaMarr Chase, I think I have a lot of nothing wtih the size of some these WR's projected to go in the first round.  

It also boggles my mind how some owners let their roster get so incredibly out of hand where their only asset is a 3rd round pick last year, but... different strokes I suppose. 

 
The valuation is so subjective from owner to owner on picks.  
Very very true.

If the Gibson owner is a Cowboys fan who backed into the pick, he might be more willing to trade.

If the owner is a guy who fell in love with Gibson, and sees his presence as a reminder to other owners that they are not as smart as he is (<------------THIS GUY), that owner may not be realistic in trade discussions.  

After the draft, some lesser players will slide into great situations, inflating their value.  If you have an opportunity to offer that pick plus something?  Maybe.  

 
If the Gibson owner is a Cowboys fan who backed into the pick, he might be more willing to trade.
I am actually a Gibson owner - fell in love and am a Cowboys fan.  I love Gibson's potential and I can't invision a situation where I part with him for something another owner is willing to pay.  

 
I don't necessarily disagree with your guys' premise, but if I have one guy to build around then why wouldn't I keep him?  What good does it do me to turn him into two ok guys?

In my league I'm not getting a RB at 1.6 and you're asking me to trade away my only one for a WR and something early in the 2nd.  I wouldn't take the deal without a RB in return or another 1st.
Yeah. It has to be enough to tip the scales. 

For me the inflection point is whether I think I can build around them in a winning way vs whether I think I can't. If I think I can then I am holding. Unless the offer blows my socks off.

 
To be clear I wouldn't take the deal even if I was rebuilding and looking to liquidate him. Because it doesn't tip the scales for me. I agree the 1.06 isn't all that.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
What he needs to do is turn something worth a dollar into two things that add up to a buck fifty, even if that means they're worth eighty and seventy cents a piece.

This gets into a discussion about roster construction that probably belongs elsewhere.
I am glad you and I aren’t in any dynasty leagues together (to my knowledge). We think too much alike on this type of strategy and would never be able to come to an agreeable trade arrangement. 
 

Gibson is a player who I would need a massive premium to move today, regardless of his dynasty ranking or ADP. 
I feel the same way about him as I did about McLaurin last spring—I said then that I felt like he would be a top-12 WR in dynasty rankings by the end of the 2020 NFL season, and I was just about spot on. I have Gibson as a top-12 overall player in 2022 right now. 

 
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zed2283 said:
I don't necessarily disagree with your guys' premise, but if I have one guy to build around then why wouldn't I keep him?  What good does it do me to turn him into two ok guys?

In my league I'm not getting a RB at 1.6 and you're asking me to trade away my only one for a WR and something early in the 2nd.  I wouldn't take the deal without a RB in return or another 1st.
Exactly. If he was 25 or 26 years old, sure. But he is still 22 so you could build around him for the next three years.

 
barackdhouse said:
To be clear I wouldn't take the deal even if I was rebuilding and looking to liquidate him. Because it doesn't tip the scales for me. I agree the 1.06 isn't all that.
Right. You will be LUCKY if the 1.06 yields a player who performs as well in 2021 as Gibson did in 2020. 

 
We got talking about Gibson again in the trade thread and someone (more than one?) said something to the effect that Gibson didn't get used enough last year for their liking. I couldn't handle that so I ran some numbers.

I am going to talk about Gibson's first 11 games because he got hurt early in his 12th game, missed the next 2 and dealt with turf toe for his last couple games. But by all accounts he was fully healthy thru 11 games. I'm not ignoring what happened afterwards but I'm going games 1-11 here. 

And to be clear for those that weren't paying attention, this guy played mostly WR in college and successfully converted to a full time RB in the NFL as a rookie during COVID with terrible QB play throughout. And he was drafted on day 2 which means something these days.

My RB snap percentage below is perhaps flawed because I don't know how to pull data for plays where Gibson/McKissic were on the field together, but it probably isn't that much, and whatever it is it would actually increase Gibson's number here. My usage % is (carries+targets)/total snaps. Total snaps aren't listed here but I used them to do these calcs.

Thru 11 games:
RB Carry%              56%
Carries+Targets       16.2 per game
Team Snap%           46%
RB Snap%               40%           
Usage%                   53%

He had 39 targets during this time. 11 TDs.

Peyton Barber's two biggest games in terms of volume came in the two games that were also Gibson's two largest carry totals. Gibson had 20 carries in both those games, where Barber had 10 and 11 respectively. Both games the WFT won handily. Weeks 7 and 12.

Week 1 Gibson was eased in, only had 25% of team snaps, but was given a carry or targeted 11 times, 61% usage.
Week 2 he got a ton of playing time and basically took over the job. 65% of team snaps, 15 touches and a TD, lower usage at 35% but now he is playing in the NFL.
Week 9 his worst game of the split with only 9 touches, including only 6 carries. But there were only 9 carries to be had that day for the team and they went from Kyle Allen to Alex Smith midgame and it just wasn't good. 
He got hurt early in week 13, missed weeks 14-15, got eased back in week 16 and then week 17 had a huge share again.

Barber is gone now, it would be ridiculous to not point out the very high likelihood Gibson takes at least a little bit more of a leap in terms of his development, but also in terms of his share of the pie. Even though it was clearly at a respectable level already.

He had just over 16 carries+targets per game during this split. If we give him a *modest* bump to 18 touches per game (yes touches are different than carries+targets), then I have him at 250/1200/10 with 40/300/3 which is good for 268 PPR points. Which is right around that RB4-RB7 territory. 

I think 18 touches is a floor. Not that a ceiling would be much higher though. My 13 TD projection isn't a floor projection but there is a big piece missing in my writeup on him here. He is an electric playmaker and is really good! I don't know what people didn't see last year but Fitzpatrick and Samuel are going to make this offense dramatically better. And I like what the defense can do for them gamescript wise. 

Ok I'm out. Just something to chew on with just one more wake up to the big day!
 

 
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barackdhouse said:
We got talking about Gibson again in the trade thread and someone (more than one?) said something to the effect that Gibson didn't get used enough last year for their liking. I couldn't handle that so I ran some numbers.

I am going to talk about Gibson's first 11 games because he got hurt early in his 12th game, missed the next 2 and dealt with turf toe for his last couple games. But by all accounts he was fully healthy thru 11 games. I'm not ignoring what happened afterwards but I'm going games 1-11 here. 

And to be clear for those that weren't paying attention, this guy played mostly WR in college and successfully converted to a full time RB in the NFL as a rookie during COVID with terrible QB play throughout. And he was drafted on day 2 which means something these days.

My RB snap percentage below is perhaps flawed because I don't know how to pull data for plays where Gibson/McKissic were on the field together, but it probably isn't that much, and whatever it is it would actually increase Gibson's number here. My usage % is (carries+targets)/total snaps. Total snaps aren't listed here but I used them to do these calcs.

Thru 11 games:
RB Carry%              56%
Carries+Targets       16.2 per game
Team Snap%           46%
RB Snap%               40%           
Usage%                   53%

He had 39 targets during this time. 11 TDs.

Peyton Barber's two biggest games in terms of volume came in the two games that were also Gibson's two largest carry totals. Gibson had 20 carries in both those games, where Barber had 10 and 11 respectively. Both games the WFT won handily. Weeks 7 and 12.

Week 1 Gibson was eased in, only had 25% of team snaps, but was given a carry or targeted 11 times, 61% usage.
Week 2 he got a ton of playing time and basically took over the job. 65% of team snaps, 15 touches and a TD, lower usage at 35% but now he is playing in the NFL.
Week 9 his worst game of the split with only 9 touches, including only 6 carries. But there were only 9 carries to be had that day for the team and they went from Kyle Allen to Alex Smith midgame and it just wasn't good. 
He got hurt early in week 13, missed weeks 14-15, got eased back in week 16 and then week 17 had a huge share again.

Barber is gone now, it would be ridiculous to not point out the very high likelihood Gibson takes at least a little bit more of a leap in terms of his development, but also in terms of his share of the pie. Even though it was clearly at a respectable level already.

He had just over 16 carries+targets per game during this split. If we give him a *modest* bump to 18 touches per game (yes touches are different than carries+targets), then I have him at 250/1200/10 with 40/300/3 which is good for 268 PPR points. Which is right around that RB4-RB7 territory. 

I think 18 touches is a floor. Not that a ceiling would be much higher though. My 13 TD projection isn't a floor projection but there is a big piece missing in my writeup on him here. He is an electric playmaker and is really good! I don't know what people didn't see last year but Fitzpatrick and Samuel are going to make this offense dramatically better. And I like what the defense can do for them gamescript wise. 

Ok I'm out. Just something to chew on with just one more wake up to the big day!
 
Excellent post. I think Barber is back though isn’t he? 

 
As someone who has bled burgundy and gold since birth, I'm cautioning folks to at least curb their enthusiasm a little when it comes to Gibson. The hype has surged to the point where it's going off the deep end a little, and there are plenty of smart people who I respect, who are posting in this thread, who know that unbridled enthusiasm without even a hint of pessimism isn't a rational framework to view any Player's predicted outcome.

JD McKissic is a premium NFL-caliber receiving back, a legit offensive weapon, albeit small-caliber. He's still here, and as long as he's healthy, he's going to get snaps, because there's no logical reason that he shouldn't.

Peyton Barber is JAG. I'd say there's an 90% chance he's not on the Roster come September...but that doesn't mean we're in for the Gibson/McKissic show. Whether they acquire a rookie over the next 3 days, or find someone off the street, one of the biggest priorities on their list is to find a replacement for Barber who is capable of doing more than falling forward for 3 yards, whether you need 2 or 4. Heck, who knows what Lamar Miller or Jonathan Williams have in the tank...but they're going to find out, and those guys will either be here, and have a role, or be gone...and replaced with someone more capable. A hard-charging slasher is going to be on this Roster, and that guy is going to get snaps and carries.

Don't get me wrong, I'm a big fan of Gibson. Love the kid, but I don't view him as a bellcow, and I've heard nothing that says the Redskins do either. Signing Fitz at QB is a blazing indicator that they view the state of the 2021 NFC East as just as winnable as 2020, and they are all-in to make the Playoffs and see what happens for 2021, and postpone building the foundation of a franchise that can achieve long-term sustained success, until 2022. That kind of all-in for the current Season approach generally means an 'all hands on deck' approach to Roster construction and playing time. For this Team to achieve that goal, they're going to need a 3rd RB with skills unique to what Gibson and McKissic bring to the table, and that RB is going to be given opportunity to contribute. The 2021 Redskins have the potential to be a decent NFL Football Team, but they're right on that edge of maybe yes/maybe no. Even with Fitz and Samuel, they are not anywhere near the top 25% (Top 8), and closer to the bottom of 9-16 in the next 25%.  If they're going to win 8, 9 games or so, it's going to be via a Team approach, not on the backs of a few studs. As a Team, they're not there yet. Oh, McLaurin will get his, sure...but I wouldn't count on anyone else having a premium expected outcome. I'm just not sure they're a place to go mining for fantasy gems, though, except maybe the D/ST. You know how it is when everyone is contributing...no one contributes excessively.

YMMV, but I think it's prudent to exercise caution. IMHO there will be a 3rd RB on the Team who is better than Barber, and will get snaps and touches in lieu of Gibson and McKissic.

 
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I will be SHOCKED if the Skins take a RB before round 5. Just too many other needs and good players in this draft to go that direction IMO. I think the team knows they are close to be legit contenders so I assume they will improve that LB core, offensive line, and maybe even WR/TE before they worry about their 3rd string RB....

 
I will be SHOCKED if the Skins take a RB before round 5. Just too many other needs and good players in this draft to go that direction IMO. I think the team knows they are close to be legit contenders so I assume they will improve that LB core, offensive line, and maybe even WR/TE before they worry about their 3rd string RB....
I think you're mostly spot on. IMHO, they are not close to being legit (SB) contenders, but this is offset what I believe to be their belief that the NFCE is as winnable as it was last year, therefore in their minds, it makes sense to prioritize the short term as legit contenders to win the Division, then see what happens. You're absolutely right that there are too many other needs, to prioritize RB in the Draft...but there is a concern at RB that needs to be addressed, and its not 3rd-string RB...it's RB 1C, to mesh with RB 1A (Gibson) and RB 1B (McKissic).

...and again, I'm a big fan of Gibson, and Gibson is plenty of things, and he's excellent at those things...but there are some things that he's not, that prevent him from being a characteristic bell-cow. I'm a big fan of McKissic, probably due to the hole that was left in my heart when Chris Thompson departed, but nonetheless...McKissic is a few things, and he's excellent at them...but there are many things that he's not...and those are things they need to establish a balanced offense with a complete and efficient rushing component.

They need a Mike Davis to have a complete RB room...but if I were Mike Davis/his agent, I would have signed with Atlanta, too.

I predict that when September arrives, there will be a bruising slasher on the Roster, and he will play enough of a role to cap the ridiculously hyped upside being predicted for Gibson.

 
Washington did not draft a running back but did draft 2 wide receivers, one in round 3
Gibson is going to have a fantastic year me thinks. LOTS of opportunities and touches on a team who's defense will ensure that offense has the ball a lot. And with Fitzmagic they should be able to move the offense more too. I don't know how many games they will win this year, they do have a really hard schedule, but I honestly believe they will be competitive and have a shot to win most games on the schedule. Haven't been this excited about a season in a loong long time. 

 
well, Cynthia Frelund at NFL.com just put out a list of records for teams. Washington 10.5 wins. This is going to be a damn good team with a power run game and Gibson will be CMC-light.

 
well, Cynthia Frelund at NFL.com just put out a list of records for teams. Washington 10.5 wins. This is going to be a damn good team with a power run game and Gibson will be CMC-light.
Vegas odds have Washington at .500 this year as their O/U wins is 8.5 in a new 17 game season.

Not saying they're right, but good opportunity for you to make money if you see them as a very above average team.

 
Tanner9919 said:
well, Cynthia Frelund at NFL.com just put out a list of records for teams. Washington 10.5 wins. This is going to be a damn good team with a power run game and Gibson will be CMC-light.
Except for it will be near impossible to be “CMC-light” (unless you’re talking really light) while McKissic is on this team.  

 
Except for it will be near impossible to be “CMC-light” (unless you’re talking really light) while McKissic is on this team.  
That's a good point, unless they do just greatly increase Gibson's touches this year. But if he's playing that well Ron would have no problem feeding him repeatedly based on his history I'd say. 

 
Deamon said:
Vegas odds have Washington at .500 this year as their O/U wins is 8.5 in a new 17 game season.

Not saying they're right, but good opportunity for you to make money if you see them as a very above average team.
There are 2 sides of the coin.  One they didn't have all that many injuries last year (first time in a while). That could change this year.

The good side of the coin is they will likely get even better on defense.  Some of the pieces they have added in FA and Draft are highly regarded.  The other side of the ball is also improved.  The Qb results were absolutely awful.  Think about this when Smith (who was their best qb last year) was a FA before he retired he got no starting offers.  Even Andy Dalton was named the starter after he was signed before the draft so you know the markest was shallow.  Fitzpatrick will likely only be a plus for them compared to last year and they have more depth on the Oline and 2 new WR's.  One of the NFL .com (Handzus?) say they are a bottom 8 team in the league.  Which is BS.  The Division will be tougher this year as last year all the NFCE teams had horrible qb play most of the season.

 
There are 2 sides of the coin.  One they didn't have all that many injuries last year (first time in a while). That could change this year.

The good side of the coin is they will likely get even better on defense.  Some of the pieces they have added in FA and Draft are highly regarded.  The other side of the ball is also improved.  The Qb results were absolutely awful.  Think about this when Smith (who was their best qb last year) was a FA before he retired he got no starting offers.  Even Andy Dalton was named the starter after he was signed before the draft so you know the markest was shallow.  Fitzpatrick will likely only be a plus for them compared to last year and they have more depth on the Oline and 2 new WR's.  One of the NFL .com (Handzus?) say they are a bottom 8 team in the league.  Which is BS.  The Division will be tougher this year as last year all the NFCE teams had horrible qb play most of the season.
Ya I don't see them as bottom 8. I think they will actually improve by a win or two this year.  But even IF they do that, that still only puts them at 8-9 or 9-8 and likely out of the playoffs.  People forget that they were a 7-9 team last year. 

 
Ya I don't see them as bottom 8. I think they will actually improve by a win or two this year.  But even IF they do that, that still only puts them at 8-9 or 9-8 and likely out of the playoffs.  People forget that they were a 7-9 team last year. 
I think they are 11-6 or 10-7 barring bad injuries.  People underestimate just how bad their qb play was. I think that they were like 1 and 6 with Haskins at qb. .  Dallas is a highly potent offense but it is only going to be as good as it was the first 5 or so games of last season.  They were horrid on Defense for quite a bit of the season especially before Dak got hurt.  They rightly went hard at Defense in the draft but opinions vary on how they did, we will see.  The Giants are good on Defense and have potential on offense but i am not sure how good their qb is.  The eagles i am not sure of what their plan is.  They have lots of picks but have some holes to fill .

WFT In the long Term if they find their long term qb they will be very dangerous.  They have more caps space next year then all the other NFCE teams combined do.  They have over 100 Million available in 2023 and also more than any other team in the Division.

 
I think they are 11-6 or 10-7 barring bad injuries.  People underestimate just how bad their qb play was. I think that they were like 1 and 6 with Haskins at qb. .  Dallas is a highly potent offense but it is only going to be as good as it was the first 5 or so games of last season.  They were horrid on Defense for quite a bit of the season especially before Dak got hurt.  They rightly went hard at Defense in the draft but opinions vary on how they did, we will see.  The Giants are good on Defense and have potential on offense but i am not sure how good their qb is.  The eagles i am not sure of what their plan is.  They have lots of picks but have some holes to fill .

WFT In the long Term if they find their long term qb they will be very dangerous.  They have more caps space next year then all the other NFCE teams combined do.  They have over 100 Million available in 2023 and also more than any other team in the Division.
I don't think the division will be particularly strong, but I think Dallas improves enough and maybe even the Giants, where it isn't historically bad again.  It's going to take 9-10 wins to win the div this year.

Sure their QB play was bad, but Fitzpatrick can also be very very bad.  It's pretty much a coin flip if you're getting a great or awful QB every game.  I love the guy, but consistency isn't his thing.

Again, I agree with you that they improve.  But with a tougher division, and a first place schedule, I don't see it.  There's obvious debate (which we won't get into) on if Philly could have won the final game of the year against them.  If you're on the "Doug lost on purpose" side, then we're talking about a 6-10 Washington team that now has a better division and a MUCH tougher schedule.  To say they're going to nearly double their win total seems crazy to me.

Assuming they go 4-2 in the div (which would be good), you really think they can go 7-2 vs the teams below?  When they had the 20th best record in the league last year? 

Chargers
Bills
Falcons
Saints
Chiefs
Packers
Broncos
Bucs
Panthers
Seahawks
Raiders

 
I don't think the division will be particularly strong, but I think Dallas improves enough and maybe even the Giants, where it isn't historically bad again.  It's going to take 9-10 wins to win the div this year.

Sure their QB play was bad, but Fitzpatrick can also be very very bad.  It's pretty much a coin flip if you're getting a great or awful QB every game.  I love the guy, but consistency isn't his thing.

Again, I agree with you that they improve.  But with a tougher division, and a first place schedule, I don't see it.  There's obvious debate (which we won't get into) on if Philly could have won the final game of the year against them.  If you're on the "Doug lost on purpose" side, then we're talking about a 6-10 Washington team that now has a better division and a MUCH tougher schedule.  To say they're going to nearly double their win total seems crazy to me.

Assuming they go 4-2 in the div (which would be good), you really think they can go 7-2 vs the teams below?  When they had the 20th best record in the league last year? 

Chargers
Bills
Falcons
Saints
Chiefs
Packers
Broncos
Bucs
Panthers
Seahawks
Raiders
I think they are better than 4 and 2 in the divison.  As for the rest of the list i see Bills, Chiefs and Bucs better then them.  I have a feeling Seattle falls of this year, and who knows how saints and packers are at qb this year depending on holdouts and replacing veterans.  If Rodgers goes to Denver then they become forminable.  

If you look at when they got hot last year it is when Smith was somewhat healthy.  He was not really healthy after he broke his leg, the man had tons of guts but he made brady look like Tyreek Hill last year.  Even then they were living off of one WR and one TE for their passing game.

Fitz can be both bad and good some games but they were so bad last year in qb efficiency if he even turns in a top 15 year at qb then they could be forminable. But i do agree he is the key to their season.  They go as far as he takes them, but at least this might be one season he is the set starter unless they make a big trade for a Vet like watson or rodgers both being unlikely

All that being said i think the NFC will be the stronger confernce this year, so harder to win a wild card.  I personally think they win the division but it could be close.  I am not so sure on Dallas being great because of their defense.  I think they were giving up  like 35 ppg in the first few games of the year and Dak was still playing at that point, and i think they won only the miracle Atlanta finish?  I could be wrong on their record at that point last year..  I don't see Dallas being any better on offense than they were last year early in the season as they haven't added anybody to it from what i can tell.  Dallas has taken a lot of chances on their defensive picks the last decade or so with guys with behavior/Drug issues and don't always succeed with them staying on the field.  Parsons is a great talent but i think that him falling even in Mock Drafts before the actual draft shows there is some risk.  Honestly if i was them i would have gone corner even if it meant moving up or in the case of trade down i would have taken a DT.  I didn't watch every game of theirs last year but i know that WFT ran all over them on Thanksgiving day game.  One thing i do know Dallas can't afford to lose Smith at LT again every time they lose him they end up going into a big slide until he comes back.

My main optomistic idea is that WFT got better on both sides of the ball, especially on Offense.  I don't think that any team in the Divsion has as much room to say that.  But hey that is what fan do sometimes look thru rose colored glasses, but i see a lot of the Carolina Panthers playoff teams in the WFT especially on Defense and their DL is stupidly young and very talented.

 
I think they are better than 4 and 2 in the divison.  As for the rest of the list i see Bills, Chiefs and Bucs better then them.  I have a feeling Seattle falls of this year, and who knows how saints and packers are at qb this year depending on holdouts and replacing veterans.  If Rodgers goes to Denver then they become forminable.  

If you look at when they got hot last year it is when Smith was somewhat healthy.  He was not really healthy after he broke his leg, the man had tons of guts but he made brady look like Tyreek Hill last year.  Even then they were living off of one WR and one TE for their passing game.

Fitz can be both bad and good some games but they were so bad last year in qb efficiency if he even turns in a top 15 year at qb then they could be forminable. But i do agree he is the key to their season.  They go as far as he takes them, but at least this might be one season he is the set starter unless they make a big trade for a Vet like watson or rodgers both being unlikely

All that being said i think the NFC will be the stronger confernce this year, so harder to win a wild card.  I personally think they win the division but it could be close.  I am not so sure on Dallas being great because of their defense.  I think they were giving up  like 35 ppg in the first few games of the year and Dak was still playing at that point, and i think they won only the miracle Atlanta finish?  I could be wrong on their record at that point last year..  I don't see Dallas being any better on offense than they were last year early in the season as they haven't added anybody to it from what i can tell.  Dallas has taken a lot of chances on their defensive picks the last decade or so with guys with behavior/Drug issues and don't always succeed with them staying on the field.  Parsons is a great talent but i think that him falling even in Mock Drafts before the actual draft shows there is some risk.  Honestly if i was them i would have gone corner even if it meant moving up or in the case of trade down i would have taken a DT.  I didn't watch every game of theirs last year but i know that WFT ran all over them on Thanksgiving day game.  One thing i do know Dallas can't afford to lose Smith at LT again every time they lose him they end up going into a big slide until he comes back.

My main optomistic idea is that WFT got better on both sides of the ball, especially on Offense.  I don't think that any team in the Divsion has as much room to say that.  But hey that is what fan do sometimes look thru rose colored glasses, but i see a lot of the Carolina Panthers playoff teams in the WFT especially on Defense and their DL is stupidly young and very talented.
Better than 4-2 in the division is almost impossible man.  Div games are always close.  Wash went 4-2 in the division last year.... when it was historically bad.  And you think they'll go 5-1 in the div this year?!  You say it will be close that they win the div, but still think they go 5-1 in the div... that's wild.

You do seem pretty confident on 10 or 11 wins though, so you really should bet the over HARD.  They only have to win 9 games and you win a lot of money.

I'm not hating on the Skins at all... I think they'll be a decent team... but I think they have almost no chance at 11 wins.  You're forgetting they were VERY BAD last year and aren't even improving THAT much.  I would not at all be surprised if their winning percentage went down next year with how hard their schedule is.  I think every team in the division got better on both sides of the ball.  Dallas' defense improved and they get Dak back.  Giants definitely beefed up their offense and I wouldn't say their Defense got worse.  Philly is in rough shape, but they added offensive and defensive weapons. 

My prediction is:

Dallas 10-7
Wash 9-8
NYG 8-9
Phi 6-11

 
Better than 4-2 in the division is almost impossible man.  Div games are always close.  Wash went 4-2 in the division last year.... when it was historically bad.  And you think they'll go 5-1 in the div this year?!  You say it will be close that they win the div, but still think they go 5-1 in the div... that's wild.

You do seem pretty confident on 10 or 11 wins though, so you really should bet the over HARD.  They only have to win 9 games and you win a lot of money.

I'm not hating on the Skins at all... I think they'll be a decent team... but I think they have almost no chance at 11 wins.  You're forgetting they were VERY BAD last year and aren't even improving THAT much.  I would not at all be surprised if their winning percentage went down next year with how hard their schedule is.  I think every team in the division got better on both sides of the ball.  Dallas' defense improved and they get Dak back.  Giants definitely beefed up their offense and I wouldn't say their Defense got worse.  Philly is in rough shape, but they added offensive and defensive weapons. 

My prediction is:

Dallas 10-7
Wash 9-8
NYG 8-9
Phi 6-11
No chance of me betting ever.  I don't bet any pro sports games or any other thing than say a lotto ticket or slot machines.  If you look at the seasons end last year look at TB and KC.  No one exposed the KC OL all season and TB did.  It's arguable that any of the TB opponents in the playoff played TB better than KC did.

Wash was 4th overall in scoring defense and looks to be at least somewhat better than last year as they added a well regarded corner and a LB that has the potential to cover a TE, something that they haven't had in probably a decade. I haven't been able to find the QB efficiency for PFF for the qb position for 2020 but from what i saw on TV they  were just plain awful at qb last year.

Your records prediction could be right but even you have it close.

 
No chance of me betting ever.  I don't bet any pro sports games or any other thing than say a lotto ticket or slot machines.  If you look at the seasons end last year look at TB and KC.  No one exposed the KC OL all season and TB did.  It's arguable that any of the TB opponents in the playoff played TB better than KC did.

Wash was 4th overall in scoring defense and looks to be at least somewhat better than last year as they added a well regarded corner and a LB that has the potential to cover a TE, something that they haven't had in probably a decade. I haven't been able to find the QB efficiency for PFF for the qb position for 2020 but from what i saw on TV they  were just plain awful at qb last year.

Your records prediction could be right but even you have it close.
Big difference between 9 and 11 wins.  You make good points but we'll agree to disagree.  I just think Washington probably hovers about how they were last year.  Improve a bit at QB and Defense, but way harder opponents and tougher division.  And they were a 6-7 win team last year.  I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and give them 8-9 wins.  I don't think they're a playoff team.  But we will see soon enough.

 
Big difference between 9 and 11 wins.  You make good points but we'll agree to disagree.  I just think Washington probably hovers about how they were last year.  Improve a bit at QB and Defense, but way harder opponents and tougher division.  And they were a 6-7 win team last year.  I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and give them 8-9 wins.  I don't think they're a playoff team.  But we will see soon enough.
I certainly could be wrong.  I see some changes in the NFC though.  I don't see NO, GB or Seattle being as good as they were last year.  NO and GB due to the QB position(assuming rodgers being gone which i think he forces) and i think Seattle Def is finally get older.  I think SF and Minn will be much improved.  I think they are going to have the 7 playoff poistions again so that means that you could say have LAR, SF,TB,one of Minn/Chicago winning the NFCC,one of Dallas/WFT winning the NFCE.  That leaves 2 playoff spots open. In any case it looks to be a fairly competitive season in the NFC so well see what happens.

 
I don't think the division will be particularly strong, but I think Dallas improves enough and maybe even the Giants, where it isn't historically bad again.  It's going to take 9-10 wins to win the div this year.

Sure their QB play was bad, but Fitzpatrick can also be very very bad.  It's pretty much a coin flip if you're getting a great or awful QB every game.  I love the guy, but consistency isn't his thing.

Again, I agree with you that they improve.  But with a tougher division, and a first place schedule, I don't see it.  There's obvious debate (which we won't get into) on if Philly could have won the final game of the year against them.  If you're on the "Doug lost on purpose" side, then we're talking about a 6-10 Washington team that now has a better division and a MUCH tougher schedule.  To say they're going to nearly double their win total seems crazy to me.

Assuming they go 4-2 in the div (which would be good), you really think they can go 7-2 vs the teams below?  When they had the 20th best record in the league last year? 

Chargers
Bills
Falcons
Saints
Chiefs
Packers
Broncos
Bucs
Panthers
Seahawks
Raiders
It is 7-4 out of division that is needed to get to 11 in your scenario.

 
2021 WFTskins better than 2020, on both sides of the ball, including QB, mitigated by Fitzmagic/tragic factor. Floor higher, ceiling higher, capped upside.

2020 NFCE historically bad, odds are, it will improve. Like most Divisions, most years, these Teams will beat each other up.

2021 NFCE schedule overall tougher than 2020, WFTskins 17th game (@ Bills) toughest added game in NFCE.

Realistic goal: win Division at all costs; likely only road to playoffs due to other WC cohorts likely sporting better records. Just like last year, the only reason to put off building a potential multi-season contender starting in 2022 is because the pathway to a Division Title is reasonable. The minute it's not, it's time to look to 2022 and beyond.

Predicted finish: 7-10 wins, most likely 8-9...and everyone should be ecstatic if they fall in that window - it's the definition of progress.

Fantasy outlook: Redskins are going to be a decent NFL Team this year. Whole greater than sum of parts. Optimism in fantasy circles already over the top right now, and building. Most popular WFTskins will probably be overdrafted and underproduce relative to draft position, due to ball being spread around due to improved qb, improved depth and better front-line options across the board. For this Team to be NFL successful, not only do they need Fitz to be magic, they need Heinecke to pitch quality relief, and they absolutely NEED Samuel, Humphries and Dyami Brown to cut into McLaurin's production, and McKissic and RB to be named later (Peyton Barber must be replaced, preferably by a bruising slasher) NEED to cut into Gibson's production. NFL teams care far more about NFL things than they care about FF things. The acquision of Fitz, amidst all the other moves they are making, is absolutely a WIN NOW MOVE. This is not yet a Team that can win on the backs of a few superstars - it's going to take a Team effort, spread production.  I'll continue to caution against purchasing either Gibson or McLaurin, unless it's at value, and to adapt one's Team-building strategy about the very real possibility, IMHO, that some of their anticipated production gets absorbed by the overall improvement in personnel, and what the Team needs to do to reach their 2021 goal of Division Title, or bust.

 
2021 WFTskins better than 2020, on both sides of the ball, including QB, mitigated by Fitzmagic/tragic factor. Floor higher, ceiling higher, capped upside.

2020 NFCE historically bad, odds are, it will improve. Like most Divisions, most years, these Teams will beat each other up.

2021 NFCE schedule overall tougher than 2020, WFTskins 17th game (@ Bills) toughest added game in NFCE.

Realistic goal: win Division at all costs; likely only road to playoffs due to other WC cohorts likely sporting better records. Just like last year, the only reason to put off building a potential multi-season contender starting in 2022 is because the pathway to a Division Title is reasonable. The minute it's not, it's time to look to 2022 and beyond.

Predicted finish: 7-10 wins, most likely 8-9...and everyone should be ecstatic if they fall in that window - it's the definition of progress.

Fantasy outlook: Redskins are going to be a decent NFL Team this year. Whole greater than sum of parts. Optimism in fantasy circles already over the top right now, and building. Most popular WFTskins will probably be overdrafted and underproduce relative to draft position, due to ball being spread around due to improved qb, improved depth and better front-line options across the board. For this Team to be NFL successful, not only do they need Fitz to be magic, they need Heinecke to pitch quality relief, and they absolutely NEED Samuel, Humphries and Dyami Brown to cut into McLaurin's production, and McKissic and RB to be named later (Peyton Barber must be replaced, preferably by a bruising slasher) NEED to cut into Gibson's production. NFL teams care far more about NFL things than they care about FF things. The acquision of Fitz, amidst all the other moves they are making, is absolutely a WIN NOW MOVE. This is not yet a Team that can win on the backs of a few superstars - it's going to take a Team effort, spread production.  I'll continue to caution against purchasing either Gibson or McLaurin, unless it's at value, and to adapt one's Team-building strategy about the very real possibility, IMHO, that some of their anticipated production gets absorbed by the overall improvement in personnel, and what the Team needs to do to reach their 2021 goal of Division Title, or bust.
One thing about 2020 though. their schedule was probably worse last year.  They faced NFC West and AFC Central which between the two produced 5 playoff teams so not like they had a cake walk schedule outside of the division.  For me the Fitz signing is not win now.  It was the most effective thing they could have done with the money spent.  They were so bad last year at qb they had to add someone.  They were rumored to be talking to Det for Stafford but didn't get him.  A win now move would be the big trade for a Watson or Rodgers type.  And i am not so sure Rodgers fits this team unless he chills out.  He helped run out the last coach and now wants to get rid of the GM.  He is a HOF level player but he is acting like a 4  year old pouting about not being able to pick players he wants.  Most players don't get to do that either.

 
One thing about 2020 though. their schedule was probably worse last year.  They faced NFC West and AFC Central which between the two produced 5 playoff teams so not like they had a cake walk schedule outside of the division.  For me the Fitz signing is not win now.  It was the most effective thing they could have done with the money spent.  They were so bad last year at qb they had to add someone.  They were rumored to be talking to Det for Stafford but didn't get him.  A win now move would be the big trade for a Watson or Rodgers type.  And i am not so sure Rodgers fits this team unless he chills out.  He helped run out the last coach and now wants to get rid of the GM.  He is a HOF level player but he is acting like a 4  year old pouting about not being able to pick players he wants.  Most players don't get to do that either.
I would want Watson over Rodgers if given a choice anyway. I know the allegations aren't great with Watson right now but as far as the team mate, leader, player he's been on the field and off the field in the community...I'll take that over Rodgers all day long. 

 
I would want Watson over Rodgers if given a choice anyway. I know the allegations aren't great with Watson right now but as far as the team mate, leader, player he's been on the field and off the field in the community...I'll take that over Rodgers all day long. 
I think for WFT to trade for Watson he would have to be basically cleared at least by Law Enforcement and the league unless they do it for stupid value like a 3rd.  Watson last year had nothing like a Davante Adams at WR and had no real running threat at RB.  He is also much younger than Rodgers.  Personally if I am the Packers I would move him for a huge deal.  If i don't get that then enjoy retirement....

 
One thing about 2020 though. their schedule was probably worse last year.  They faced NFC West and AFC Central which between the two produced 5 playoff teams so not like they had a cake walk schedule outside of the division.  For me the Fitz signing is not win now.  It was the most effective thing they could have done with the money spent.  They were so bad last year at qb they had to add someone.  They were rumored to be talking to Det for Stafford but didn't get him.  A win now move would be the big trade for a Watson or Rodgers type.  And i am not so sure Rodgers fits this team unless he chills out.  He helped run out the last coach and now wants to get rid of the GM.  He is a HOF level player but he is acting like a 4  year old pouting about not being able to pick players he wants.  Most players don't get to do that either.
What division is the AFC Central? :P

Their schedule was not probably worse last year.
2020 SOS- 28th hardest based on the previous year's records - 24th hardest based on predicted Vegas win totals
2021 SOS- 15th hardest based on the previous year's records - 7th hardest based on predicted Vegas win totals

 
2021 WFTskins better than 2020, on both sides of the ball, including QB, mitigated by Fitzmagic/tragic factor. Floor higher, ceiling higher, capped upside.

2020 NFCE historically bad, odds are, it will improve. Like most Divisions, most years, these Teams will beat each other up.

2021 NFCE schedule overall tougher than 2020, WFTskins 17th game (@ Bills) toughest added game in NFCE.

Realistic goal: win Division at all costs; likely only road to playoffs due to other WC cohorts likely sporting better records. Just like last year, the only reason to put off building a potential multi-season contender starting in 2022 is because the pathway to a Division Title is reasonable. The minute it's not, it's time to look to 2022 and beyond.

Predicted finish: 7-10 wins, most likely 8-9...and everyone should be ecstatic if they fall in that window - it's the definition of progress.

Fantasy outlook: Redskins are going to be a decent NFL Team this year. Whole greater than sum of parts. Optimism in fantasy circles already over the top right now, and building. Most popular WFTskins will probably be overdrafted and underproduce relative to draft position, due to ball being spread around due to improved qb, improved depth and better front-line options across the board. For this Team to be NFL successful, not only do they need Fitz to be magic, they need Heinecke to pitch quality relief, and they absolutely NEED Samuel, Humphries and Dyami Brown to cut into McLaurin's production, and McKissic and RB to be named later (Peyton Barber must be replaced, preferably by a bruising slasher) NEED to cut into Gibson's production. NFL teams care far more about NFL things than they care about FF things. The acquision of Fitz, amidst all the other moves they are making, is absolutely a WIN NOW MOVE. This is not yet a Team that can win on the backs of a few superstars - it's going to take a Team effort, spread production.  I'll continue to caution against purchasing either Gibson or McLaurin, unless it's at value, and to adapt one's Team-building strategy about the very real possibility, IMHO, that some of their anticipated production gets absorbed by the overall improvement in personnel, and what the Team needs to do to reach their 2021 goal of Division Title, or bust.
Great run-down.  The schedule and division get significantly harder but yes, QB play should be better.  I give them an extra win... 2 tops this year.  8 or 9 wins seems perfect.

The div title is blurring people's vision on how bad of a team they were last year (not a diss, they were/are better than my team).  They had 7 wins:

Eagles 4-11-1
Cowboys 6-10
Bengals 4-11-1
Cowboys 6-10
Steelers 12-4
Niners 6-10
Eagles 4-11-1

Total record of opponents they beat:  42-66-2

 
Great run-down.  The schedule and division get significantly harder but yes, QB play should be better.  I give them an extra win... 2 tops this year.  8 or 9 wins seems perfect.

The div title is blurring people's vision on how bad of a team they were last year (not a diss, they were/are better than my team).  They had 7 wins:

Eagles 4-11-1
Cowboys 6-10
Bengals 4-11-1
Cowboys 6-10
Steelers 12-4
Niners 6-10
Eagles 4-11-1

Total record of opponents they beat:  42-66-2
I think you are also blurred on how bad the QB play was for most of the year. They have made other significant improvements as well. WR group is way better. WFT looks pretty strong everywhere except QB, and again huge improvement there even if still bad.

 

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