We got talking about Gibson again in the trade thread and someone (more than one?) said something to the effect that Gibson didn't get used enough last year for their liking. I couldn't handle that so I ran some numbers.
I am going to talk about Gibson's
first 11 games because he got hurt early in his 12th game, missed the next 2 and dealt with turf toe for his last couple games. But by all accounts he was fully healthy thru 11 games. I'm not ignoring what happened afterwards but I'm going games 1-11 here.
And to be clear for those that weren't paying attention, this guy played mostly WR in college and successfully converted to a full time RB in the NFL as a rookie during COVID with terrible QB play throughout. And he was drafted on day 2 which means something these days.
My RB snap percentage below is perhaps flawed because I don't know how to pull data for plays where Gibson/McKissic were on the field together, but it probably isn't that much, and whatever it is it would actually increase Gibson's number here. My usage % is (carries+targets)/total snaps. Total snaps aren't listed here but I used them to do these calcs.
Thru 11 games:
RB Carry% 56%
Carries+Targets 16.2 per game
Team Snap% 46%
RB Snap% 40%
Usage% 53%
He had 39 targets during this time. 11 TDs.
Peyton Barber's two biggest games in terms of volume came in the two games that were also Gibson's two largest carry totals. Gibson had 20 carries in both those games, where Barber had 10 and 11 respectively. Both games the WFT won handily. Weeks 7 and 12.
Week 1 Gibson was eased in, only had 25% of team snaps, but was given a carry or targeted 11 times, 61% usage.
Week 2 he got a ton of playing time and basically took over the job. 65% of team snaps, 15 touches and a TD, lower usage at 35% but now he is playing in the NFL.
Week 9 his worst game of the split with only 9 touches, including only 6 carries. But there were only 9 carries to be had that day for the team and they went from Kyle Allen to Alex Smith midgame and it just wasn't good.
He got hurt early in week 13, missed weeks 14-15, got eased back in week 16 and then week 17 had a huge share again.
Barber is gone now,
it would be ridiculous to not point out the very high likelihood Gibson takes at least a little bit more of a leap in terms of his development, but also in terms of his share of the pie. Even though it was clearly at a respectable level already.
He had just over 16 carries+targets per game during this split. If we give him a *modest* bump to 18 touches per game (yes touches are different than carries+targets), then I have him at
250/1200/10 with 40/300/3 which is good for 268 PPR points. Which is right around that RB4-RB7 territory.
I think 18 touches is a floor. Not that a ceiling would be much higher though. My 13 TD projection isn't a floor projection but there is a big piece missing in my writeup on him here. He is an electric playmaker and is really good! I don't know what people didn't see last year but Fitzpatrick and Samuel are going to make this offense dramatically better. And I like what the defense can do for them gamescript wise.
Ok I'm out. Just something to chew on with just one more wake up to the big day!