Football Jones
Footballguy
Agreed.That should have been the first topic in his job interview with the Packers. No joke.
I thought the EXACT same thing when he got the job, LOL.
Agreed.That should have been the first topic in his job interview with the Packers. No joke.
I'm not saying you're wrong, but I'd like to add Blount to the list. He didn't get many chances, but when he was given the ball, he was effective.It's not like the fantasy community has necessarily been wrong on that front. How many of these guys really work out, especially in the modern NFL? When I googled 250lb RBs that became good stat producers almost all of them were from back when the NFL was a different game.
Derrick Henry worked out but he was a top 5 FF pick and you had to endure 3 years of him figuring it out to finally get here. Most people that drafted him probably sold him on the cheap long before his breakout.
Brandon Jacobs put up a few RB2 seasons. Eddie Lacy had a couple nice years (when he was slimmer) on a much better offense.
He could certainly work out but there just aren't a lot of teams looking to build around a Jerome Bettis/Natrone Means type player these days. I guess the Packers using a day 2 pick on him maybe means they are more receptive to it than most, but I'm not sure it's something they will really stick with. And that's not considering that I just don't believe Dillon is that good of a player. He was way overdrafted on day 2, most had him as a 4th round talent.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jonathan Taylor and Ke’Shawn Vaughn each fell into landing spots with strong perceptions of opportunity, whereas believers in A.J. Dillon are hard to find despite being drafted in the second round and joining an Aaron Rodgers offense. You don’t have to love the prospect to find value taking Dillon, who could ascend with hype in the offseason or injuries during the season to presumed lead back Aaron Jones.
Packers signed second-round RB AJ Dillon to a four-year contract.
Dillon (6’0/247) was a highly productive three-year starter at Boston College who earned three-straight first-team All-ACC honors in averaging at least 110 rushing yards and one touchdown per game in each season. He showcased 97th-percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism by running a 4.53 forty at Indy's Combine, adding a 41-inch vertical to his hit-or-miss tape. Dillon was a punishing power back, but rarely broke off big runs and only caught 21 career passes. In the NFL, he profiles as a potential two-down committee back who has more top-speed than other goal-line backs, but will likely be subbed out on passing downs, limiting his overall appeal both on the field and in fantasy. Dillon's workload in his first year with the Packers is questionable, but his presence alone may allow the organization to forego extending Aaron Jones as the latter enters the final year of his deal.
Jul 1, 2020, 1:01 PM ET
https://twitter.com/byryanwood/status/1294658077187289088?s=21Ryan Wood @ByRyanWood
One thing you don’t need pads to observe: A.J. Dillon (28) is a big dude.
https://twitter.com/tomsilverstein/status/1294672261375549443?s=21Tom Silverstein @TomSilverstein
Rookie RB AJ Dillon has Earl Campbell size thighs. Will be interesting to see him when the pads come on.
Packers GM Brian Gutekunst compared second-round rookie RB AJ Dillon to Eddie Lacy.
When asked about Dillon, Gutekunst said, "I think he's obviously built to last. He has had a lot of production over the last three years and proven that. We had a chance to have Eddie Lacy here for a few years where he was that kind of back, and I think A.J. can do some similar things." While both are heavy backs who figure to do a lot of their damage between the tackles, Dillon is more impressive physically than Lacy, who battled weight issues for most of his NFL career. Dillon went viral on social media after a training camp photo surfaces of his tree trunk legs. Aaron Rodgers also was impressed with Dillon's muscular built but did note that the "biggest hurdle" will be Dillon getting caught up with the playbook. Dillon has the potential to pass Jamaal Williams on the depth chart and could be a thorn in Aaron Jones' side for fantasy purposes.
RELATED:
Aaron Jones
, Jamaal Williams
SOURCE: ESPN.com
Aug 15, 2020, 7:15 PM ET
https://twitter.com/byryanwood/status/1295392618004742145?s=21Ryan Wood @ByRyanWood
Another good ball downfield from Tim Boyle, dropping in a pass in front of a safety to A.J. Dillon.
Dillon, it should be said, looks like he has natural hands so far, impressive for a RB his size.
https://twitter.com/iankenyonnfl/status/1295744133911531520?s=21Ian Kenyon @IanKenyonNFL
AJ Dillon is an incredible linear athlete, but I'm concerned about the lateral movement. I wonder if his best playing weight isn't more like 225-230 instead of 250.
That 20-25 lb difference is what turned Le'Veon Bell into an all-pro between college and NFL.
Already covered by one of the replies but Bell had a 6.75 three cone time as a prospect, Dillon had a 7.19 three cone.
That's been the rub against Dillon all along. I drafted him but I'm not sure I like his long term prospects...
The D.K. Metcalf of RBs, said one astute Twitter user. The guy is a fast tank once he gets going.That's been the rub against Dillon all along. I drafted him but I'm not sure I like his long term prospects...
Thanks I'll watch that video later...he is one of the few positive analysis I have found on him. Lots of people think his game won't translate to the nfl. There haven't been to many successful big rbs.The D.K. Metcalf of RBs, said one astute Twitter user. The guy is a fast tank once he gets going.
Waldman's take at the RSP. https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2019/07/16/matt-waldmans-rsp-film-room-no-185-rb-a-j-dillon-boston-college/
Yeah, I agree. His size might be working against him. I got him late in a rookie draft for his relative ADP so I'm cheering for him but not expecting the world. Expecting some good things, maybe, but not the world.Thanks I'll watch that video later...he is one of the few positive analysis I have found on him. Lots of people think his game won't translate to the nfl. There haven't been to many successful big rbs.
I got him late as well and I took him because the Pack took him in the 2nd and Jones is a FA at the end of the year. Have to figure from a fantasy perspective they are going to seriously kick the tires on him...Yeah, I agree. His size might be working against him. I got him late in a rookie draft for his relative ADP so I'm cheering for him but not expecting the world. Expecting some good things, maybe, but not the world.
Packers beat report Jim Owczarski said rookie RB AJ Dillon's role could change during the season, but he doesn't expect major usage in the early going.
To quote Owczarski from his Reddit Q&A, it's "possible" Dillon's "role changes mid-season, after the [Week 5] bye week or even later as he just gets more experience but I would be lying to you if I were to project a certain type of usage right now." Owczarski said the cancellation of the NFL preseason means the Packers won't know if Dillon can recognize "shifting defensive fronts" and pass protect adequately. Though no one is drafting Dillon to start him Week 1, this is a reminder that Dillon is a smart stash rather than a back who will get a bunch of carries right away. It'll be the Aaron Jones show, for a while at least.
SOURCE: Reddit.com
Aug 23, 2020, 5:05 PM ET
My opinion is that you take this question to the Assistant Coach forumTrying to choose between AJ Dillon and Justin Jefferson in a .5 ppr dynasty league. Decent depth at RB and WR so a toss up. Opinions?
Jefferson has been going higher than Dillon in just about any draft format you can think of.Trying to choose between AJ Dillon and Justin Jefferson in a .5 ppr dynasty league. Decent depth at RB and WR so a toss up. Opinions?
I treat these types of articles with a bit of scrutiny because its practically impossible for them to know any player's actual BMI. The height and weight numbers that are listed for players are not always accurate. Some of these players are listed 10-20lbs heavier or lighter, 1 or 2 inches shorter or taller. And then you have weight distribution and body type. You could have two players with the same BMI, one has legs like Barry Sanders the other looks like an orange on a set of toothpicks.Uh oh, fellow believers. This comes from Football Outsiders discussing Dillon's BMI and historical successes regarding the measurement. Asserting that most bell cow backs that achieve 300 fantasy points in a season fall within the 29-31 BMI range (besides exceptions Aaron Jones and a younger Christian McCaffrey, who they tease the article with) the author goes on to note:
"A.J. Dillon (33.0) is the only young back on the high side of the BMI range who rings my alarm bells. And even if they haven't thought of it in these terms, the critics of the Packers' 2020 draft strategy are applying a similar logic. Dillon looks like the sort of specialized short-yardage back that modern teams have stopped drafting on Days 1 and 2. Derrick Henry may have provided a reason to question that wisdom as he carried the Titans to playoff victories over the Patriots and Ravens, but Henry is a freak, and the athleticism of his 6-foot-3 and 247-pound frame pops in his 30.9 BMI. At about the same weight, Dillon is 2 or 3 inches shorter. I'll believe he can carry the Packers rushing offense when he does it."
Sure. And he's going by combine weight, which might have changed. Just another piece of information to process when thinking about Dillon. That can't be bad, even though the news isn't good. Just makes us better GMs/owners/whatever we're calling it.I treat these types of articles with a bit of scrutiny because its practically impossible for them to know any player's actual BMI. The height and weight numbers that are listed for players are not always accurate. Some of these players are listed 10-20lbs heavier or lighter, 1 or 2 inches shorter or taller. And then you have weight distribution and body type. You could have two players with the same BMI, one has legs like Barry Sanders the other looks like an orange on a set of toothpicks.
Yeah, there was a reason. It's that historical measurements of BMI and 300+ fantasy point seasons happen mostly within that range. I think there are only four outliers or something like that. Perhaps a link would help and you can see it and judge it for what it is worth by the primary source of my blurb. I don't really know what to think. It just seemed relevant to the SP and this thread in particular. I also drafted Dillon in May at 3.01 in a rookie draft, so I'm still very curious and intent on sussing this article out. If anybody can point to the validity or invalidity of it, all the better in my book.Honest question... was there a reason in the article as to why they picked that specific range of BMI (29-31)? Or did they only go up to 31 because Derrick Henry is 30.9?
Thanks for the link. This answers my questions. I guess where I fall out on this is that, as a 3rd round rookie pick I’m not expecting any 300 fantasy point seasons from Dillon. I’ll be damn happy if he gets there but I’ll be more than OK with several top 24 finishes, which according to the last 3 years in one of my dynasty leagues means, roughly, 150 fantasy points or more a season. If you can get a consistent RB2 in the 3rd round of your rookie draft, your doing OK. That usually means you can flip him if needed for a lot more than a 3rd in the future.Yeah, there was a reason. It's that historical measurements of BMI and 300+ fantasy point seasons happen mostly within that range. I think there are only four outliers or something like that. Perhaps a link would help and you can see it and judge it for what it is worth by the primary source of my blurb. I don't really know what to think. It just seemed relevant to the SP and this thread in particular. I also drafted Dillon in May at 3.01 in a rookie draft, so I'm still very curious and intent on sussing this article out. If anybody can point to the validity or invalidity of it, all the better in my book.
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/projection-points/2020/running-back-growth-potential-starts-size
I think BMI is a fairly useless metric to use for any athlete because it doesn't take body mass composition or distribution into account. Add in the fact that it may not even be the actual BMI, and it just seems like a meaningless exercise to compare these data points.Sure. And he's going by combine weight, which might have changed. Just another piece of information to process when thinking about Dillon. That can't be bad, even though the news isn't good. Just makes us better GMs/owners/whatever we're calling it.
Exactly. At that point in the draft (even though I'm a newbie), you hope for some production at the right time so you can flash and flip to someone desperate for a higher pick than the one you took him with. Actually, I won't lie. Kind of had delusions of him bell cowing it for them in 2021. We shall see.Thanks for the link. This answers my questions. I guess where I fall out on this is that, as a 3rd round rookie pick I’m not expecting any 300 fantasy point seasons from Dillon. I’ll be damn happy if he gets there but I’ll be more than OK with several top 24 finishes, which according to the last 3 years in one of my dynasty leagues means, roughly, 150 fantasy points or more a season. If you can get a consistent RB2 in the 3rd round of your rookie draft, your doing OK. That usually means you can flip him if needed for a lot more than a 3rd in the future.
You may still be able to hold onto that delusion. Keep in mind that a 300 fantasy point season for a RB is an amazing season... only CMC did it last year. The top ten RBs in 2019 ranged significantly lower than that 250-200 points. So Dillon “could” still end up being a bell cow but just not a historian season type bell cow back.Exactly. At that point in the draft (even though I'm a newbie), you hope for some production at the right time so you can flash and flip to someone desperate for a higher pick than the one you took him with. Actually, I won't lie. Kind of had delusions of him bell cowing it for them in 2021. We shall see.
Yep. Anything around 200 would be gravy.You may still be able to hold onto that delusion. Keep in mind that a 300 fantasy point season for a RB is an amazing season... only CMC did it last year. The top ten RBs in 2019 ranged significantly lower than that 250-200 points. So Dillon “could” still end up being a bell cow but just not a historian season type bell cow back.
Hope you're not wishing that for 2020. Aaron Jones isn't going anywhere this year and is a stud.You may still be able to hold onto that delusion. Keep in mind that a 300 fantasy point season for a RB is an amazing season... only CMC did it last year. The top ten RBs in 2019 ranged significantly lower than that 250-200 points. So Dillon “could” still end up being a bell cow but just not a historian season type bell cow back.
No, I actually specifically said 2021 in the post he's responding to.Hope you're not wishing that for 2020. Aaron Jones isn't going anywhere this year and is a stud.
I responded to Boone22 If he said 2021 I apologize.No, I actually specifically said 2021 in the post he's responding to.
Nope, I was responding to Rock’s “delusion” where he referenced 2021. I Personally don’t think Dillon on does much at all this year except maybe steal a few Goal line carries and a handful of TDs. Anything beyond that would be a bonus.I responded to Boone22 If he said 2021 I apologize.
I think BMI is a fairly useless metric to use for any athlete because it doesn't take body mass composition or distribution into account. Add in the fact that it may not even be the actual BMI, and it just seems like a meaningless exercise to compare these data points.
For body mass distribution, I do like RBs that carry more weight in their legs and Dillon clearly checks that box. If you look back at the leg workouts that Barry Sanders was able to do, it was just insane.
One brief counterpoint: We're not talking about comparing athletes to the general population, we're comparing each athlete to another world-class athlete. You assume they're fit enough to play at a high level -- nay, a ridiculous level. Their bodies are borderline the best humanity has to offer. So there's a baseline there where there won't be a whole lot of variance in the way you indicate.Exactly. BMI doesn't differentiate between fat and muscle, just mass. You can put a 6'0 250lb person who eats garbage every meal and doesn't work out next to a 6'0 250lb weight lifter who does steroids. Same BMI, two completely different looking people.
One brief counterpoint: We're not talking about comparing athletes to the general population, we're comparing each athlete to another world-class athlete. You assume they're fit enough to play at a high level -- nay, a ridiculous level. Their bodies are borderline the best humanity has to offer. So there's a baseline there where there won't be a whole lot of variance in the way you indicate.
And then there’s 247-pound rookie A.J. Dillon, who could give the Packers offense another flavor out of the backfield once he begins to master the little things about the position.
“I think A.J. has shown improvement. Like any young back, there is a lot to learn in this offense, just in terms of the pass game, in pass protection. Certainly, he has some great skills as a runner. He’s gotta have the mindset that he better be ready to roll,” LaFleur said.
The Packers have used Dillon as both a between-the-tackles runner and as a receiver during camp, helping highlight their desire to make him an all-around threat.