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QB Mac Jones, JAX (1 Viewer)
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
Cjw_55106
Footballguy
None, but dont let that get in the way of good analysis. Pointing to Brady as Bill having an "eye for QBs" is also laughable. As everyone knows, he was taken in the 6th round. I dont think its a stretch to say Bill was more lucky than good on that pick. Its nice to cherry pick a couple QBs with mediocre careers as "hits", but lets be fair and judge all of the QBs Bill has drafted:
2000, Round 6, Pick 199: Tom Brady, Michigan
2002, Round 4, Pick 117: Rohan Davey, LSU
2003, Round 6, Pick 201: Kliff Kingsbury, Texas Tech
2005, Round 7, Pick 205: Matt Cassel, USC
2008, Round 3, Pick 94: Kevin O'Connell, San Diego State
2010, Round 7, Pick 250: Zac Robinson, Oklahoma State
2011, Round 3, Pick 74: Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
2014, Round 2, Pick 64: Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois
2016, Round 3, Pick 91: Jacoby Brissett, North Carolina State
2018, Round 7, Pick 219: Danny Etling, LSU
2019, Round 4, Pick 133: Jarrett Stidham, Auburn
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Since you asked for good analysis, you would know that the huge majority of mid to late round QBs don’t amount to anything and finding a guy to be a decent backup is about the best outcome available for those guys. BB didn’t draft QB early because he didn’t need to with Brady there so long. Prior to Mac Jones, he used 0 first round picks and 1 second round pick on a QB (who went to a SB). Plenty of other teams picked early round guys that did very little.
Bald Bull
Footballguy
If you told me I would draft 11 QBs and one being the greatest ever to play the game AND only one coming before the 3rd round, I would happily take those odds.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
I watched much of the game last night.
Mac is being honed to be the system guy. Already making checks and changing protections like the coaching staff wants their QB to be able to do. Seems very game for the timing and "dink and dunk" with the occasional deep shot. Threw two bad short passes but most of the short passes were good. Threw a couple of great medium depth passes with awesome (awesome= good but we've been watching Cam for a year) anticipation. Threw two deep passes. One was a very good throw that would have been a TD with most NFL WR. The other was a slight overthrow but to a safe location. They used him more than I thought they would last night and clearly are trying to figure out how close he is to being able to actually run the offense like they want it to be run.
Physically, he's very "ordinary" for an NFL QB. I'd watched highlights pre and post draft. Read a lot of write ups. Watching him it's like "Eh, OK. I get that really clearly now. Taylor Heinicke had a little more pizzazz and jumped off the screen more than this guy." But this coaching staff isn't looking for pizzazz. They want a guy that can run their offense. Run the right plays, make the right reads and deliver the ball accurately. And the deep ball while not a bullet looked very accurate and catchable. The sideline throws and middle of the field throws had good zip.
Cam was used differently last night than he was last year. I think the coaching staff knows that he can run if they need to use that but want to keep trying to get him to run the more traditional version of their offense. No need to get the guy hurt preseason game 1 anyway. He was maybe a tick better than last year but clearly, not a cog that fits into the machine. Once the cog they're moulding fits (which is who knows when, might be next year or week 1), Mac's their guy.
Mac is being honed to be the system guy. Already making checks and changing protections like the coaching staff wants their QB to be able to do. Seems very game for the timing and "dink and dunk" with the occasional deep shot. Threw two bad short passes but most of the short passes were good. Threw a couple of great medium depth passes with awesome (awesome= good but we've been watching Cam for a year) anticipation. Threw two deep passes. One was a very good throw that would have been a TD with most NFL WR. The other was a slight overthrow but to a safe location. They used him more than I thought they would last night and clearly are trying to figure out how close he is to being able to actually run the offense like they want it to be run.
Physically, he's very "ordinary" for an NFL QB. I'd watched highlights pre and post draft. Read a lot of write ups. Watching him it's like "Eh, OK. I get that really clearly now. Taylor Heinicke had a little more pizzazz and jumped off the screen more than this guy." But this coaching staff isn't looking for pizzazz. They want a guy that can run their offense. Run the right plays, make the right reads and deliver the ball accurately. And the deep ball while not a bullet looked very accurate and catchable. The sideline throws and middle of the field throws had good zip.
Cam was used differently last night than he was last year. I think the coaching staff knows that he can run if they need to use that but want to keep trying to get him to run the more traditional version of their offense. No need to get the guy hurt preseason game 1 anyway. He was maybe a tick better than last year but clearly, not a cog that fits into the machine. Once the cog they're moulding fits (which is who knows when, might be next year or week 1), Mac's their guy.
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SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Mostly agree with this, with two caveats:
1. Prior to getting injured with the Panthers, Cam had completion percentages under Norv Turner approaching 70%. If he can approach this again, he's infinitely more valuable a commodity than Jones.
2. Jones looked good last night. We have zero info on how competitive he might become in pressurized pro football situations. As you say, he might be ready in a week or a year. Or never.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
I'm not an expert in offensive systems but NE's offensive system has always relied on scheming mediocre WR talent open. I mean other than in 2007. Unfortunately that mediocre talent kept thinning out and now they're overpaying for just above mediocre talent at WR.
I have zero knowledge of Cam's previous pass catcher's talent levels but it always looks to me like he doesn't throw with anticipation like you'd need to in this system. When he wants to throw the ball hard with any pressure at all he looks awful. If you're saying the ceiling is the roof, I'm not buying.
For fantasy, I'm bullish on Cam being very useful against the easier defenses.
Mac Jones as a fantasy asset is very unlikely to be useful. His ceiling is Brees but that's like a 10%-chance.
Cjw_55106
Footballguy
You missed my point, which was, there is little proof that Bill has a better eye than anyone else.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Sure, even if Brady were the #1 pick of his draft class, NE would have been lucky with the way things turned out. Is BB a quarterback whisperer? Probably not. But consider . . .
Brady: 199th pick, 344 starts
Cassel: 230th pick, 82 career starts
Hoyer: UDFA, 40 career starts
Garoppolo: 62nd pick, 35 career starts
Brissett: 91st pick, 32 career starts
Mallett: 74th pick, 8 career starts
Were those guys (other than Brady) all that great? No . . . but BB and NE produced 6 QB not drafted in the first round that started 541 NFL games. That's a lot . . . and not easy to accomplish. And remember . . . they weren't necessarily trying to find a starting QB, they were usually trying to find a decent backup to Brady.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
To further the narrative of drafting QBs earlier, here's a list of all the QBs that were drafted in the first or second rounds since 2000. Some teams seemed to be always looking for a QB. And obviously some teams were much better at it than others.
ARI Kyler Murray Josh Rosen Matt Leinart
ATL Matt Ryan Michael Vick
BAL Lamar Jackson Joe Flacco Kyle Boller
BUF Josh Allen EJ Manuel J.P. Losman
CAR Cam Newton Jimmy Clausen
CHI Justin Fields Mitchell Trubisky Rex Grossman
CIN Joe Burrow Andy Dalton Carson Palmer
CLE Baker Mayfield DeShone Kizer Johnny Manziel Brandon Weeden Brady Quinn
DAL Quincy Carter
DEN Drew Lock Paxton Lynch Brock Osweiler Tim Tebow Jay Cutler
DET Matthew Stafford Drew Stanton Joey Harrington
GBP Jordan Love Brian Brohm Aaron Rodgers
HOU Deshaun Watson David Carr
IND Andrew Luck
JAC Trevor Lawrence Blake Bortles Blaine Gabbert Byron Leftwich
KCC Patrick Mahomes
LAC Justin Herbert Eli Manning Drew Brees
LAR Jared Goff Sam Bradford
LVR Derek Carr JaMarcus Russell M Tuiasosopo
MIA Tua Tagovailoa Ryan Tannehill Pat White Chad Henne John Beck
MIN Teddy Bridgewater Christian Ponder T Jackson
NEP Mac Jones Jimmy Garoppolo
NOS None
NYG Daniel Jones Philip Rivers
NYJ Zach Wilson Sam Darnold C Hackenberg G Smith M Sanchez K Clemens C Pennington
PHI Jalen Hurts Carson Wentz Kevin Kolb
PIT Ben Roethlisberger
SEA None
SFO Trey Lance Colin Kaepernick Alex Smith
TBB Kyle Trask Jameis Winston Josh Freeman
TEN Marcus Mariota Jake Locker Vince Young
WAS Dwayne Haskins Robert Griffin Jason Campbell Patrick Ramsey
It's interesting that SEA and NOS didn't invest in QB early . . . but the Saints ended up with Brees and the Seahawks drafted Wilson in the third. The Browns and Jets? Oof.
ARI Kyler Murray Josh Rosen Matt Leinart
ATL Matt Ryan Michael Vick
BAL Lamar Jackson Joe Flacco Kyle Boller
BUF Josh Allen EJ Manuel J.P. Losman
CAR Cam Newton Jimmy Clausen
CHI Justin Fields Mitchell Trubisky Rex Grossman
CIN Joe Burrow Andy Dalton Carson Palmer
CLE Baker Mayfield DeShone Kizer Johnny Manziel Brandon Weeden Brady Quinn
DAL Quincy Carter
DEN Drew Lock Paxton Lynch Brock Osweiler Tim Tebow Jay Cutler
DET Matthew Stafford Drew Stanton Joey Harrington
GBP Jordan Love Brian Brohm Aaron Rodgers
HOU Deshaun Watson David Carr
IND Andrew Luck
JAC Trevor Lawrence Blake Bortles Blaine Gabbert Byron Leftwich
KCC Patrick Mahomes
LAC Justin Herbert Eli Manning Drew Brees
LAR Jared Goff Sam Bradford
LVR Derek Carr JaMarcus Russell M Tuiasosopo
MIA Tua Tagovailoa Ryan Tannehill Pat White Chad Henne John Beck
MIN Teddy Bridgewater Christian Ponder T Jackson
NEP Mac Jones Jimmy Garoppolo
NOS None
NYG Daniel Jones Philip Rivers
NYJ Zach Wilson Sam Darnold C Hackenberg G Smith M Sanchez K Clemens C Pennington
PHI Jalen Hurts Carson Wentz Kevin Kolb
PIT Ben Roethlisberger
SEA None
SFO Trey Lance Colin Kaepernick Alex Smith
TBB Kyle Trask Jameis Winston Josh Freeman
TEN Marcus Mariota Jake Locker Vince Young
WAS Dwayne Haskins Robert Griffin Jason Campbell Patrick Ramsey
It's interesting that SEA and NOS didn't invest in QB early . . . but the Saints ended up with Brees and the Seahawks drafted Wilson in the third. The Browns and Jets? Oof.
-jb-
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
It's obvious they drafted Jones to be an NFL starter, so the question is when he actually becomes a regular starter. Until he starts getting the huge majority of snaps practicing with the starters, I don't think he will be in line to really compete as the starter. Based on how things have gone at camp, I don't think we are there yet.
I suspect they will give him a group of plays to run and get familiar with, and once he seemingly has mastered those then keep expanding his knowledge of the playbook. I don't think they feel he knows enough yet to just run with him. He will mostly be working with the second and third units in training camp (and some work with the starting offense against the starting defense). The fork in the road will be once the season starts. Teams don't have the number of players and practice time to have a full practice for two QBs. So either he'll be ready Week 1 or he won't. Past then, it will be hard to have him get a ton of practice reps.
I have suggested all along that at some point Cam will get banged up and that will be the point of inflection to get Jones live playing time. From there, he will either do well enough to keep the job or struggle and they might have to go back to Cam. That could be a very minor injury to Newton that they drag out for a month to get a good look at Mac. Hopefully Jones doesn't fall on his face (or get hurt himself).
I agree that the best thing they could do is just go with Jones Week 1 of the regular season . . . but I am not sure they will actually do that. For some reason, BB seems indebted to Cam and cares about hurting his feelings.
Boston
Footballguy
The big issue (and as you know I was relentless about this last year) is Cam is awful…it is pretty cut and dry…unless Cam totally surprises us BB is hurting this team by playing him…if there is ever going to be a big rift between Kraft and BB it will be if he continues playing Cam and he looks like trash…I really believe Jones will be the starter sooner rather than later…BB will have no choice.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
To be fair, from what I have seen / read / heard, Cam has looked a lot better in camp. I have seen some video and he's made throws he could never have made last year. All the hyperbole that was out there this off season has mostly come true . . . better grasp of the offense, better skill position players, knows more plays, more practice time, getting a little chemistry with his receivers, etc.
There are a bunch of folks I follow that have been at practice every day. Universally, they all say Cam looks much better on 7 out of 8 passes. A lot more zip, gets the ball out way quicker, much more decisive, much better reading coverage, great accuracy on deep throws and can drop the ball in a bucket, etc.. But man, that 8th throw is always a WTF moment where people have no idea what he saw, where the ball was going, why he threw the ball there, and absolutely no chance of being completed.
I really can't tell if the coaching staff looks at that and says 87.5% of his throws are well thought out and well executed and they can work with him to correct those abominations and get those out of his system. Similarly, what we SEE involving Jones may be very basic configurations and plays with training wheels on that may not ever work in real games. I suspect that was the case last night, as they gave him three step drops against vanilla coverage that they knew guys would be open. I'm pretty sure both coaches had an agreement not to disembowel each other's quarterbacks when pressuring the passer, so they helped build Mac's confidence.
That being said, I have no faith that Newton can lead the offense to being consistently productive and I certainly don't feel like he could lead them to play catch up if they fell behind. I certainly would not want him in on a must score drive to win a game.
At this point I am just filling words, as you and I would much rather see Jones start and Newton off the team entirely. But clearly the coaching staff sees things they like in Newton and feel they can work with as far as Cam goes.
Boston
Footballguy
The BB/Cam dynamic is so odd…for all the cold-blooded decisions BB has made to guys who have done so much for him he seems to have a soft spot for this washed up QB he has no history with…on another note and this is not directed at you but there are members of the Boston media that are nothing more than suck-ups and regurgitate rather than have their own thoughts because they don’t really understand the game…they do the same thing with Tuuku and Marcus Smart in other sports and those two are far better than Cam has ever been in a Patriot uniform.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
No doubt that Boston has its share of entertainers trying to make it in the biz with their hot takes, legit reporters that try to dig and analyze, and naysayers that just want to shoot down everything and stir the pot because they get ratings.
The guys I like are the ones that go to training camp and log plays, note who played with which units, who worked with coaches in side sessions, and spell out which combinations of players did what. That's way more useful than guys that get on TV and say they have a feeling about a player with no explanation at all or rationale why that person feels that way. But the rest of the media and fantasy sites will run with it.
Boston
Footballguy
I like guys who understand the game…Curran, Bedard and Giardi are three that come to mine…agree or disagree with them they back up their points with real football knowledge…Gresh knows his stuff as well but sometimes goes a little too far with the fact he played at a high level.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I don't love Curran. He's too cutesy and often wants to be part of the story too much for my liking. He may understand the game, but he also is one that blurts things out without really explaining why. Maybe by extension we are supposed to guess that he has insider information, but a lot of times he seems to blend some component of personal opinion, team sources, football knowledge, and speculation into a statement without much clarity.
I like Bedard even though he and I have clashed several times directly on things . . . he generally knows his stuff. I like Giardi as a personality and he's pretty knowledgeable . . . IMO probably not as knowledgeable as some of the others though. You can pretty much run with whatever Reiss puts out, although he may not be the first to come out with info like he used to. I think I like Lazar the best out of anyone now. IMO, he puts out information without having a bias . . . and later will provide his opinion on things. But he at least puts out all the information for people to mull over.
Boston
Footballguy
I like Reiss a lot but he is more of an info guy…I don’t look to him to him for what is going on as far as schemes or the nuts and bolts of the game…very is well respected and does not try to do more than he is capable of which I think is one of the keys to his success…he would rather be right than the first with the story which I love…he knows his limitations and has not tried to big time anyone as he has become successful.
Would be interesting to cross this to do this by GMs/staffs instead of by team (but I know would also be a lot of work).
Anarchy99
Footballguy
It would be a lot of work but would likely be pretty intuitive. Good GM's/staffs would likely have much longer runs with franchises (and better drafting results). I am sure there would be a lot of GM's with short careers and short stints at teams when they could not prove to be successful.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Unless the player is as polished coming out as some of the true elites, like Manning, Luck, Wilson, I think it can benefit a QB to sit half or a full year as an understudy. Further that if the OL and/or running game aren't super solid (not sure if they are this year in NE). That said, if Mac grossly outplays Cam in camp/preseason, and shows glimpses of being a future Manning/Luck/Wilson, then I favor going for it from go. Wilson did exactly that. So did Dak and Carr. No hard and fast here, IMO, but it's nice to have both options as things evolve.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
To flesh this out a little more, NE has a strong OL, strong running game, and should have a top defense. Not sure what that means for either Cam or Mac, but it does make for having a winning season if they field good game manager that doesn't turn the ball over.
So far through camp, Jones has looked pretty good but predominantly has been playing with the second offense against the scout team defense (ie, non starters and not key rotational defensive players). They have started to give him some reps with the first team offense, mostly in two minute drills.
Newton has almost always been the first one to start drills or work with the starting offense. IIRC, they finally gave Jones a more extended look with the starters the other day (on a day where Cam in general took it easy most of practice). To me, I think Jones COULD have been the Week 1 starter . . . if that's what they wanted him to be. They could have given him all the reps with the starting offense playing against the starting defense since he got there. That could have put his feet to the fire and he might have been ready for Week 1. But since they DIDN'T do that, I wonder if they really want him to start in the early going.
In general, BB for the most part has been slow to play rookies and has usually sided with development in practice and observation. That's not an every time thing, as some guys have had decent roles as rookies. But he generally has been inclined to not have to rely heavily on younger players. We've seen over the years he loves to get savvy veterans in to play key roles for lower dollars, which definitely fits the profile as far as Cam goes. I haven't looked into it enough to tell if starting a a QB too early can tend to blow his confidence and ruin him for the rest of his career. But I am sure that's happened plenty of times.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
probably by week 6 Mac starts. injury, or general lousy play by Cam should sink him fast.
Faust
MVP
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
I think you could make a pretty good case that BB is the best coach ever, and by a decent amount. He always seems to get the maximum out of this roster. I think you could also make a very good case that scouting college players is somewhere he's below average at best.
For me, the reason to like Jones is he's a first round pick and, as said above, BB tends to maximize the talent of the players. The fact that BB liked him and drafted him is fine, but not really that exciting imo.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
I'm intrigued by the consensus opinion seeming to be formed here based on the notion that Bill has a soft spot for Cam.
I reject the thesis based on decades of observation.
Thinking creatively, I could see a thought process where 2021 and 2022 are not throwaway seasons but reload seasons, with a notion towards global domination with Jones at the helm in 2022 and forward...perhaps as a metaphorical gift to his coaching sons. In this hypothetical, the best time to replace Cam with Jones is 50 or 75% of the way through this season.
A variation of this them is using Cam to reach the quarter pole of the regular season and then switching in Week 5....but as noted this doesn't allow much in the way of practice reps in the reqular season.
A less dramatic hypothesis would be that Cam provides this team the best change to win football games at this point of Jones' development even if (a) every 8th throw in camp this preseason is a WTF moment, and (b) the armchair quarterback community has given Cam his last rites.
I'm your garden variety homer, so I default to "in Bill we trust".
I reject the thesis based on decades of observation.
Thinking creatively, I could see a thought process where 2021 and 2022 are not throwaway seasons but reload seasons, with a notion towards global domination with Jones at the helm in 2022 and forward...perhaps as a metaphorical gift to his coaching sons. In this hypothetical, the best time to replace Cam with Jones is 50 or 75% of the way through this season.
A variation of this them is using Cam to reach the quarter pole of the regular season and then switching in Week 5....but as noted this doesn't allow much in the way of practice reps in the reqular season.
A less dramatic hypothesis would be that Cam provides this team the best change to win football games at this point of Jones' development even if (a) every 8th throw in camp this preseason is a WTF moment, and (b) the armchair quarterback community has given Cam his last rites.
I'm your garden variety homer, so I default to "in Bill we trust".
Only 1 impressive throw. Threw to predetermined receiver on most plays. Not fast of foot or strong arm. Accurate. Incomplete grade in his first game.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
he might be better than Cam, but almost any starter in the NFL is better than Cam. seriously.
Jones might be decent, but with any rookie QB, there will be growing pains. lots of them. it happens. Peyton struggled as a rookie.
I don't see any way the Patriots are anything but dog meat in the up-n-coming AFC east. maybe better than the Jets, but ok. the Fish eat their lunch in Miami every year.
I don't see anything but a 7-9 6-10 season from NE this year. I can't see them being even modestly competitive in some games. the magic is gone, it's a full-on rebuild phase or worse. they used to win 6 games/yr against the weak afc Least.now they might be lucky to win 2 or 3 games.
BB is not Darth Vader or that Sith dude. Arians proved that. oh look I can win with Brady, too!
question is how long does Dark Sloth hang around as HC of the Patsie Klines?
Jones might be decent, but with any rookie QB, there will be growing pains. lots of them. it happens. Peyton struggled as a rookie.
I don't see any way the Patriots are anything but dog meat in the up-n-coming AFC east. maybe better than the Jets, but ok. the Fish eat their lunch in Miami every year.
I don't see anything but a 7-9 6-10 season from NE this year. I can't see them being even modestly competitive in some games. the magic is gone, it's a full-on rebuild phase or worse. they used to win 6 games/yr against the weak afc Least.now they might be lucky to win 2 or 3 games.
BB is not Darth Vader or that Sith dude. Arians proved that. oh look I can win with Brady, too!
question is how long does Dark Sloth hang around as HC of the Patsie Klines?
DropKick
Footballguy
Suspect your way off base here... Pats had a ton of players opt out last year. I see a team that can play defense, run the ball, use their TEs, and get solid play all around augmented by great coaching.
Keep in mind there are 17 games now.
Vegas line is 9.5 wins.
Here is a reasonable prediction of games by cbs that has them 9-8 https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/new-england-patriots-2021-schedule-predicting-every-game-opponent-win-totals-record-projection/
They have Miami at 10-7.
