ZWK's 2024 Prospect Analysis (5 Viewers)

[ZWK]

Ricky Pearsall didn't do much after the catch in college, with 11th percentile YAC and 6th percentile MT rate (adjusted for target location & TDs) relative to recent rd1-3 WRs. Not what SF usually goes for in their WRs.

Although he did have 21/253/5 rushing, with 6 missed tackles forced on rushes, which are great numbers for a WR. Not sure why he was able to do that on the ground but unable to do more after the catch.

 

[(HULK)]

Great first round for dynasty leagues, although in some cases not so good for a player's first season or two. 6 QBs, 7 WRs, and 1 TE drafted, many early and/or earlier than expected, some to good or great landing spots, and none with a major overall downgrade based on the combo of draft capital & landing spot.

6 QBs in the first 12 picks is great for superflex. 4 were expected. Penix & Nix get a big boost from being drafted early. Short-term it's bad for Penix to be behind Cousins. Cousins basically got the first 2 years guaranteed in his 4-year deal, so he won't be cut before then, though a trade is a possibility.

KC a perfect landing spot for Worthy. Being on a top passing offense is good for any receiver. And in this case there's a particularly good fit, because KC loves to give manufactured touches to speedy good-after-the-catch receivers (Hardman, Toney, Hill, Conley, Albert Wilson, DeAnthony Thomas) and that was Worthy's biggest strength at Texas. That won't be enough on its own to give Worthy fantasy value (see: all but one of those names), but it'll be a boost to whatever other production he can earn down the field.

Chicago not a good spot for Rome Odunze's rookie year production with Moore & Allen there, but if Caleb Williams hits it'll be great long-term. Jacksonville a somewhat similar situation for Brian Thomas, but the short-term target competition isn't as strong. San Francisco somewhat similar for Pearsall, though their potential for high-end passing numbers over the coming years are more about scheme/coaching than quarterbacking; Pearsall also gets an earlier-than-expected draft capital boost.

On the other end of the QB / passing offense spectrum, Nabers goes to NYG, Bowers to LV, and Legette to CAR. But the good thing about bad quarterbacking is that it doesn't last long - in 2 years those teams will probably have different quarterbacks (or their current QB will turn out better than expected). The Raiders also have Michael Mayer, which is a bit of a negative for Bowers, though it might not be a negative if Mayer isn't good enough to be more than a typical TE2 (he wasn't good as a rookie) or if the team finds a good way to use 2 TEs. Legette (like Pearsall) gets a boost from being drafted earlier than expected.

Adonai Mitchell & Ladd McConkey not getting drafted rd1 is a negative for them; how much depends on how far they fall.

FYSA, Cousin's contract has a no trade clause.

 

[ZWK]

Great first round for dynasty leagues, although in some cases not so good for a player's first season or two. 6 QBs, 7 WRs, and 1 TE drafted, many early and/or earlier than expected, some to good or great landing spots, and none with a major overall downgrade based on the combo of draft capital & landing spot.

6 QBs in the first 12 picks is great for superflex. 4 were expected. Penix & Nix get a big boost from being drafted early. Short-term it's bad for Penix to be behind Cousins. Cousins basically got the first 2 years guaranteed in his 4-year deal, so he won't be cut before then, though a trade is a possibility.

KC a perfect landing spot for Worthy. Being on a top passing offense is good for any receiver. And in this case there's a particularly good fit, because KC loves to give manufactured touches to speedy good-after-the-catch receivers (Hardman, Toney, Hill, Conley, Albert Wilson, DeAnthony Thomas) and that was Worthy's biggest strength at Texas. That won't be enough on its own to give Worthy fantasy value (see: all but one of those names), but it'll be a boost to whatever other production he can earn down the field.

Chicago not a good spot for Rome Odunze's rookie year production with Moore & Allen there, but if Caleb Williams hits it'll be great long-term. Jacksonville a somewhat similar situation for Brian Thomas, but the short-term target competition isn't as strong. San Francisco somewhat similar for Pearsall, though their potential for high-end passing numbers over the coming years are more about scheme/coaching than quarterbacking; Pearsall also gets an earlier-than-expected draft capital boost.

On the other end of the QB / passing offense spectrum, Nabers goes to NYG, Bowers to LV, and Legette to CAR. But the good thing about bad quarterbacking is that it doesn't last long - in 2 years those teams will probably have different quarterbacks (or their current QB will turn out better than expected). The Raiders also have Michael Mayer, which is a bit of a negative for Bowers, though it might not be a negative if Mayer isn't good enough to be more than a typical TE2 (he wasn't good as a rookie) or if the team finds a good way to use 2 TEs. Legette (like Pearsall) gets a boost from being drafted earlier than expected.

Adonai Mitchell & Ladd McConkey not getting drafted rd1 is a negative for them; how much depends on how far they fall.

FYSA, Cousin's contract has a no trade clause.

Good point. So a trade will only happen if Cousins agrees to it. And Atlanta probably won't get all that much back if they do trade him, since teams will be competing with each other to get Cousins to choose them instead of trying to make the offer that the Falcons like most. It does still seem like a possibility, a year from now, if ATL wants to hand things over to Penix and get out of Cousins' contract and a team like PIT or NYJ wants to woo Cousins to their city.

 

[ZWK]

Ricky Pearsall didn't do much after the catch in college, with 11th percentile YAC and 6th percentile MT rate (adjusted for target location & TDs) relative to recent rd1-3 WRs. Not what SF usually goes for in their WRs.

Although he did have 21/253/5 rushing, with 6 missed tackles forced on rushes, which are great numbers for a WR. Not sure why he was able to do that on the ground but unable to do more after the catch.

Video of every Ricky Pearsall rushing touchdown

 

[ZWK]

Day 2 RBs

46 Jonathon Brooks CAR
66 Trey Benson ARI
83 Blake Corum LAR
88 MarShawn Lloyd GB

My dynasty ranking is currently the same as their draft order.

These picks are pretty close to their consensus board ranks (56, 58, 77, 94), though with more of a gap between Brooks & Benson. Initial impression is that landing spot is great for Corum, bad for Lloyd, and solid for Brooks & Benson.

Carolina has Hubbard in the last year of his contract, and Miles Sanders in the last guaranteed year of his contract (and probably not worth his non-gtd 2025 salary). Could be a committee, or Brooks could earn a workhorse role in year 1 or year 2. Though if the offense doesn't get better that will make the Panthers' RB role less valuable.

Arizona has 29-year-old James Conner in the last year of his contract, and not much else. So Benson has a straightforward path to an immediate committee role and a year 2 starting job, with possibilities of taking over a bigger role in year 1 if Conner struggles or misses time.

Los Angeles has Kyren Williams with 2 years left on his rookie deal, coming off a huge year. I like this landing spot a lot for Corum - I was worried that he was a low ceiling guy because he doesn't seem like a special back, but LA is a situation that creates a high ceiling. They like to rely heavily on their top back, and can change suddenly who that is, which makes this a boom-or-bust landing spot for a reliable back like Corum, depending on whether he can usurp Williams.

Green Bay has Josh Jacobs on basically a year-to-year contract for $11.5M/year - he gets $14.8M this year and will cost an additional $8.2M to keep in 2025, $11.5M for 2026, and $13.5M in 2027. Jacobs will probably be the lead back as long as he's good, but GB could easily move on if he declines. Definitely bad for Lloyd to land behind him, but leaves more room for hope than it seems. Though there's an additional concern that Lloyd was much better on man/gap run concepts than on zone runs, and the Packers use a lot of zone blocking.

 

[ZWK]

Formulaic PPR rookie rankings, based on position and draft pick.

The number in parentheses (e.g. 149 for Xavier Legette) is the player's estimated career fantasy points over replacement, given the position he plays & the pick he was taken with, based on historical data.

The first number (e.g. 140 for Legette), which they're sorted by, is the reach-adjusted version of that player value. That means that if a player was drafted earlier than expected (compared to the consensus board), then his projection is in between the value of the pick that he was taken at and the value of the pick that he was projected at (it's 60% actual pick, 40% projected pick), based on research by Timo Riske.

372 WR Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI (372 at pick 4)
326 WR Malik Nabers NYG (326 at pick 6)
285 WR Rome Odunze CHI (285 at pick 9)
255 TE Brock Bowers LV (255 at pick 13)
212 RB Jonathon Brooks CAR (213 at pick 46)
185 WR Brian Thomas Jr. JAC (185 at pick 23)
162 RB Trey Benson ARI (162 at pick 66)
158 WR Xavier Worthy KC (164 at pick 28)
156 QB Caleb Williams CHI (156 at pick 1)
143 WR Ladd McConkey LAC (143 at pick 34)
142 WR Keon Coleman BUF (146 at pick 33)
140 WR Xavier Legette CAR (149 at pick 32)
135 WR Ricky Pearsall SF (153 at pick 31)
130 RB Blake Corum LAR (130 at pick 83)
122 QB Jayden Daniels WAS (128 at pick 2)
122 RB MarShawn Lloyd GB (122 at pick 88)
119 QB Drake Maye NE (119 at pick 3)
117 WR Ja'Lynn Polk NE (134 at pick 37)
102 WR Adonai Mitchell IND (102 at pick 52)
93 QB J.J. McCarthy MIN (93 at pick 10)
84 WR Malachi Corley NYJ (84 at pick 65)
83 QB Michael Penix Jr. ATL (99 at pick 8)
81 RB Jaylen Wright MIA (81 at pick 120)
76 RB Bucky Irving TB (76 at pick 125)
74 RB Will Shipley PHI (74 at pick 127)
73 RB Ray Davis BUF (73 at pick 128)
73 QB Bo Nix DEN (88 at pick 12)
67 RB Braelon Allen NYJ (67 at pick 134)
67 WR Roman Wilson PIT (67 at pick 84)
66 WR Jermaine Burton CIN (70 at pick 80)
64 TE Ben Sinnott WAS (79 at pick 53)
62 RB Isaac Guerendo SF (72 at pick 129)
60 WR Jalen McMillan TB (60 at pick 92)
56 RB Audric Estime DEN (56 at pick 147)
52 WR Troy Franklin DEN (52 at pick 102)
45 WR Javon Baker NE (45 at pick 110)
43 WR Luke McCaffrey WAS (53 at pick 100)
42 WR Devontez Walker BAL (42 at pick 113)
41 RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYG (41 at pick 166)
34 RB Rasheen Ali BAL (41 at pick 165)
31 RB Isaiah Davis NYJ (35 at pick 173)
29 TE Tip Reiman ARI (42 at pick 82)
29 TE Ja'Tavion Sanders CAR (29 at pick 101)
28 RB Kimani Vidal LAC (29 at pick 181)
28 WR Jacob Cowing SF (28 at pick 135)
27 RB Keilan Robinson JAC (40 at pick 167)
26 TE Theo Johnson NYG (26 at pick 107)
23 RB Jase McClellan ATL (26 at pick 186)
22 RB Dylan Laube LV (22 at pick 208)
20 RB Jawhar Jordan HOU (22 at pick 205)
20 WR Ainias Smith PHI (20 at pick 152)
19 TE Cade Stover HOU (19 at pick 123)
19 WR Anthony Gould IND (25 at pick 142)
19 WR Jamari Thrash CLE (19 at pick 156)
17 TE Erick All CIN (22 at pick 115)
16 TE Jared Wiley KC (16 at pick 131)
15 TE AJ Barner SEA (20 at pick 121)
11 WR Bub Means NO (14 at pick 170)
10 WR Malik Washington MIA (10 at pick 184)
10 WR Johnny Wilson PHI (10 at pick 185)
10 QB Spencer Rattler NO (10 at pick 150)
9 WR Jha'Quan Jackson TEN (10 at pick 182)
8 QB Jordan Travis NYJ (8 at pick 171)
7 WR Ryan Flournoy DAL (7 at pick 216)
6 WR Casey Washington ATL (10 at pick 187)
6 WR Jordan Whittington LAR (7 at pick 213)
6 WR Brenden Rice LAC (6 at pick 225)
6 WR Tejhaun Palmer ARI (9 at pick 191)
6 QB Joe Milton III NE (6 at pick 193)
5 TE Tanner McLachlan CIN (5 at pick 194)
5 WR Tahj Washington MIA (5 at pick 241)
4 WR Cornelius Johnson LAC (4 at pick 253)
4 WR Devaughn Vele DEN (5 at pick 235)
3 QB Devin Leary BAL (3 at pick 218)
2 TE Jaheim Bell NE (2 at pick 231)
2 QB Michael Pratt GB (2 at pick 245)
1 TE Devin Culp TB (2 at pick 246)

I'm working on my actual rankings, but this is a pretty good starting point.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Do you do a Superflex ranking as well?

 

[ZWK]

First pass at rookie rankings here. One set of rankings for regular PPR leagues, one set for superflex TE premium leagues.

I will probably tinker some more with these over the next couple days.