****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (13 Viewers)

[Blick]

I'd like some unbiased opinions. This morning in one of my 12 team PPR dynasty leagues I sent this offer

Give: AJB, A. Cooper, Levis
Get: 1.1, and 2.1

The owner of the other team rejected and responded with "LOL"

That didn't really sit well with me. Is the value one of 1.1 so high this year that my offer was laughable and insulting as his response implied? I certainly didn't think this as a lowball, just wanna know if I'm wrong or this owner is being absurd with that response.

My first reaction was that this wasn't close. But breaking it down, I'm not sure its too far off, even in a 1 QB league. On a competing team, I'd probably pay 2.01 for Cooper/Lewis. So it comes down to AJB vs MHJ. I'd probably rank MHJ as WR4 and AJB at WR6.

If the 2.1 was a mid - late 1st, I think it would be more fair.

I'm assuming you mean if the 2.1 was a mid - late 2nd?

No, I'd need a bump up to the 1st.

 

[sheerterror]

I'd like some unbiased opinions. This morning in one of my 12 team PPR dynasty leagues I sent this offer

Give: AJB, A. Cooper, Levis
Get: 1.1, and 2.1

The owner of the other team rejected and responded with "LOL"

That didn't really sit well with me. Is the value one of 1.1 so high this year that my offer was laughable and insulting as his response implied? I certainly didn't think this as a lowball, just wanna know if I'm wrong or this owner is being absurd with that response.

My first reaction was that this wasn't close. But breaking it down, I'm not sure its too far off, even in a 1 QB league. On a competing team, I'd probably pay 2.01 for Cooper/Lewis. So it comes down to AJB vs MHJ. I'd probably rank MHJ as WR4 and AJB at WR6.

If the 2.1 was a mid - late 1st, I think it would be more fair.

I'm assuming you mean if the 2.1 was a mid - late 2nd?

No, I'd need a bump up to the 1st.

Interesting, your post read like you sided slightly with 1.1 and 2.1 side, but you're saying you would give up 1.1 and 1.8ish for AJB Cooper and Levis?

 

[Blick]

I'd like some unbiased opinions. This morning in one of my 12 team PPR dynasty leagues I sent this offer

Give: AJB, A. Cooper, Levis
Get: 1.1, and 2.1

The owner of the other team rejected and responded with "LOL"

That didn't really sit well with me. Is the value one of 1.1 so high this year that my offer was laughable and insulting as his response implied? I certainly didn't think this as a lowball, just wanna know if I'm wrong or this owner is being absurd with that response.

My first reaction was that this wasn't close. But breaking it down, I'm not sure its too far off, even in a 1 QB league. On a competing team, I'd probably pay 2.01 for Cooper/Lewis. So it comes down to AJB vs MHJ. I'd probably rank MHJ as WR4 and AJB at WR6.

If the 2.1 was a mid - late 1st, I think it would be more fair.

I'm assuming you mean if the 2.1 was a mid - late 2nd?

No, I'd need a bump up to the 1st.

Interesting, your post read like you sided slightly with 1.1 and 2.1 side, but you're saying you would give up 1.1 and 1.8ish for AJB Cooper and Levis?

I think that is what would make the offer fair.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Damn I rank AJB a top 5 dynasty WR, and he's not old, so never thought that would be considered a lowball. Maybe I'm higher on AJB than most.

I just extremely overpaid for 1.01 by sending 1.04 and AJB.

Why would you do that?

Colts fan. Love Harrison as a prospect. I am not sold on Odunze.
I offered 1.07 and AJB but was countered and thought this was the only way

I have AJB and I’m not sure why you’d make that deal.

Seems like rookie fever, and it’s catching!

MH2’s upside is like, top 5 WR?
ABJ’s upside is like, top 5 WR?

If I’m the team getting 1.04 + AJB for an unproven rookie WR, I’m instantly accepting that all day and getting AJB + Bowers or AJB + one of the other top WR in this draft.

No offense - I just don’t understand how this deal improves your situation more than having AJB + 1.04

 

[smbkrypt24]

Damn I rank AJB a top 5 dynasty WR, and he's not old, so never thought that would be considered a lowball. Maybe I'm higher on AJB than most.

I just extremely overpaid for 1.01 by sending 1.04 and AJB.

Why would you do that?

Colts fan. Love Harrison as a prospect. I am not sold on Odunze.
I offered 1.07 and AJB but was countered and thought this was the only way

I have AJB and I’m not sure why you’d make that deal.

Seems like rookie fever, and it’s catching!

MH2’s upside is like, top 5 WR?
ABJ’s upside is like, top 5 WR?

If I’m the team getting 1.04 + AJB for an unproven rookie WR, I’m instantly accepting that all day and getting AJB + Bowers or AJB + one of the other top WR in this draft.

No offense - I just don’t understand how this deal improves your situation more than having AJB + 1.04

I explained some of that already....especially when I called it an extreme overpay.
My goal in this was to get MHJ and I succeeded. This was the only way. I tried lesser packages. I know I lost the trade and I was happy to do that to get my guy.

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

I know I lost the trade...

You don't know that. Have to see how it plays out. If the Eagles continue to be as terrible as they were at the end of last season and Bowers (assuming that's the 1.04 pick) doesn't smash, it could easily be a win for you.

Fair play for having the conviction to get the trade done and put your balls on the table with it.

 

[Zow]

Damn I rank AJB a top 5 dynasty WR, and he's not old, so never thought that would be considered a lowball. Maybe I'm higher on AJB than most.

I just extremely overpaid for 1.01 by sending 1.04 and AJB.

Why would you do that?

Colts fan. Love Harrison as a prospect. I am not sold on Odunze.
I offered 1.07 and AJB but was countered and thought this was the only way

I have AJB and I’m not sure why you’d make that deal.

Seems like rookie fever, and it’s catching!

MH2’s upside is like, top 5 WR?
ABJ’s upside is like, top 5 WR?

If I’m the team getting 1.04 + AJB for an unproven rookie WR, I’m instantly accepting that all day and getting AJB + Bowers or AJB + one of the other top WR in this draft.

No offense - I just don’t understand how this deal improves your situation more than having AJB + 1.04

I explained some of that already....especially when I called it an extreme overpay.
My goal in this was to get MHJ and I succeeded. This was the only way. I tried lesser packages. I know I lost the trade and I was happy to do that to get my guy.

I don't hate it for you. MHJ is the best WR prospect since... AJ Green? Calvin Johnson? Lofty goals but MHJ looks the part to me and if you get ten years of WR1 production then it's worth it.

In other words, if you value him that way then he's worth AJB + Bowers or Odunze.

ETA: You overpaid, but I don't think it a bad overpay.

 

[-OZ-]

My goal in this was to get MHJ and I succeeded. This was the only way. I tried lesser packages. I know I lost the trade and I was happy to do that to get my guy.

FWIW, I’m in position to get MHjr in two leagues (1.01 in regular, 1.02 in SF) and that’s what it would take to get me to move, maybe a little less in SF.

Yeah it’s rookie fever and I won’t like it if Harrison lands with the giants or patriots. But many of us do this partly / mostly to have a stake in players we like. We want to win of course but winning with players you actually want to succeed is more fun.

 

[JohnnyU]

My goal in this was to get MHJ and I succeeded. This was the only way. I tried lesser packages. I know I lost the trade and I was happy to do that to get my guy.

FWIW, I’m in position to get MHjr in two leagues (1.01 in regular, 1.02 in SF) and that’s what it would take to get me to move, maybe a little less in SF.

Yeah it’s rookie fever and I won’t like it if Harrison lands with the giants or patriots. But many of us do this partly / mostly to have a stake in players we like. We want to win of course but winning with players you actually want to succeed is more fun.

That's all well and good, but this is a case of rookie fever

 

[smbkrypt24]

My goal in this was to get MHJ and I succeeded. This was the only way. I tried lesser packages. I know I lost the trade and I was happy to do that to get my guy.

FWIW, I’m in position to get MHjr in two leagues (1.01 in regular, 1.02 in SF) and that’s what it would take to get me to move, maybe a little less in SF.

Yeah it’s rookie fever and I won’t like it if Harrison lands with the giants or patriots. But many of us do this partly / mostly to have a stake in players we like. We want to win of course but winning with players you actually want to succeed is more fun.

That's all well and good, but this is a case of rookie fever

I’ve had that fever for MHJ for awhile.

 

[smbkrypt24]

I know I lost the trade...

You don't know that. Have to see how it plays out. If the Eagles continue to be as terrible as they were at the end of last season and Bowers (assuming that's the 1.04 pick) doesn't smash, it could easily be a win for you.

Fair play for having the conviction to get the trade done and put your balls on the table with it.

Speaking strictly on paper right now.

 

[menobrown]

MH2’s upside is like, top 5 WR?
ABJ’s upside is like, top 5 WR?

To be fair AJB may have more upside but he's not actually had a top 5 season in PPG but more to the point there is a level of fantasy production he's not hit that other WR's have. He's been in the 18 PPG range his best two seasons. We had two WR's go over 23 PPG last year, two over 22 PPG the year previous, two over that mark the previous. That's not a lot of Wr's of course but we typically see 4-5 most years hit that 20 PPG range. Just trying to say there is another level that AJB has not reached, my guess is won't reach in this offense.

That may all seem trivial, a few points, but for example the gap between AJB and Lamb is the same as the gap between AJB and Jakobi Myers.

Just saying I do think there is a level up past AJB that a few other WR's are hitting each year and I understand why someone would try and see if they can reach that level. Saying all that this would be ridicilous if AJB was 23, he may not be old now, but one thing that's not a risk is you are getting 5 years younger and law of averages tells us that's more then half a career of most successful WR's.

I got 1.1 in a non-TEP league and I was offered basically Bowers and AJB for 1.1 I'd pass, at least for now, but that's a little team specific.

 

[-OZ-]

My goal in this was to get MHJ and I succeeded. This was the only way. I tried lesser packages. I know I lost the trade and I was happy to do that to get my guy.

FWIW, I’m in position to get MHjr in two leagues (1.01 in regular, 1.02 in SF) and that’s what it would take to get me to move, maybe a little less in SF.

Yeah it’s rookie fever and I won’t like it if Harrison lands with the giants or patriots. But many of us do this partly / mostly to have a stake in players we like. We want to win of course but winning with players you actually want to succeed is more fun.

That's all well and good, but this is a case of rookie fever

Ok. And?
Many of us have been looking ahead to get MHjr for a couple years. If we’re in that position, we’re not giving it up cheap.

 

[Lehigh98]

My goal in this was to get MHJ and I succeeded. This was the only way. I tried lesser packages. I know I lost the trade and I was happy to do that to get my guy.

FWIW, I’m in position to get MHjr in two leagues (1.01 in regular, 1.02 in SF) and that’s what it would take to get me to move, maybe a little less in SF.

Yeah it’s rookie fever and I won’t like it if Harrison lands with the giants or patriots. But many of us do this partly / mostly to have a stake in players we like. We want to win of course but winning with players you actually want to succeed is more fun.

That's all well and good, but this is a case of rookie fever

I've got a fever!... and the only prescription is more MHJ!

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

especially when I called it an extreme overpay.
My goal in this was to get MHJ and I succeeded. This was the only way. I tried lesser packages. I know I lost the trade and I was happy to do that to get my guy.

Ah - i missed that part. And I agree on all counts. It’s an extreme overpay, and you lost that trade.

But hey, you got your guy. Here’s hoping he doesn’t own a corvette.

 

[JohnnyU]

My goal in this was to get MHJ and I succeeded. This was the only way. I tried lesser packages. I know I lost the trade and I was happy to do that to get my guy.

FWIW, I’m in position to get MHjr in two leagues (1.01 in regular, 1.02 in SF) and that’s what it would take to get me to move, maybe a little less in SF.

Yeah it’s rookie fever and I won’t like it if Harrison lands with the giants or patriots. But many of us do this partly / mostly to have a stake in players we like. We want to win of course but winning with players you actually want to succeed is more fun.

That's all well and good, but this is a case of rookie fever

Ok. And?
Many of us have been looking ahead to get MHjr for a couple years. If we’re in that position, we’re not giving it up cheap.

I'd rather have the 1.04 and AJB, but everyone has their preferences. Not hating on it, just making an observation.

 

[-OZ-]

My goal in this was to get MHJ and I succeeded. This was the only way. I tried lesser packages. I know I lost the trade and I was happy to do that to get my guy.

FWIW, I’m in position to get MHjr in two leagues (1.01 in regular, 1.02 in SF) and that’s what it would take to get me to move, maybe a little less in SF.

Yeah it’s rookie fever and I won’t like it if Harrison lands with the giants or patriots. But many of us do this partly / mostly to have a stake in players we like. We want to win of course but winning with players you actually want to succeed is more fun.

That's all well and good, but this is a case of rookie fever

Ok. And?
Many of us have been looking ahead to get MHjr for a couple years. If we’re in that position, we’re not giving it up cheap.

I'd rather have the 1.04 and AJB, but everyone has their preferences. Not hating on it, just making an observation.

I might actually agree. But I wouldn’t rather have the 1.05 and AJB.

 

[JohnnyU]

My goal in this was to get MHJ and I succeeded. This was the only way. I tried lesser packages. I know I lost the trade and I was happy to do that to get my guy.

FWIW, I’m in position to get MHjr in two leagues (1.01 in regular, 1.02 in SF) and that’s what it would take to get me to move, maybe a little less in SF.

Yeah it’s rookie fever and I won’t like it if Harrison lands with the giants or patriots. But many of us do this partly / mostly to have a stake in players we like. We want to win of course but winning with players you actually want to succeed is more fun.

That's all well and good, but this is a case of rookie fever

Ok. And?
Many of us have been looking ahead to get MHjr for a couple years. If we’re in that position, we’re not giving it up cheap.

I'd rather have the 1.04 and AJB, but everyone has their preferences. Not hating on it, just making an observation.

I might actually agree. But I wouldn’t rather have the 1.05 and AJB.

I agree with that.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

MH2’s upside is like, top 5 WR?
ABJ’s upside is like, top 5 WR?

To be fair AJB may have more upside but he's not actually had a top 5 season in PPG but more to the point there is a level of fantasy production he's not hit that other WR's have. He's been in the 18 PPG range his best two seasons. We had two WR's go over 23 PPG last year, two over 22 PPG the year previous, two over that mark the previous. That's not a lot of Wr's of course but we typically see 4-5 most years hit that 20 PPG range. Just trying to say there is another level that AJB has not reached, my guess is won't reach in this offense.

That may all seem trivial, a few points, but for example the gap between AJB and Lamb is the same as the gap between AJB and Jakobi Myers.

Just saying I do think there is a level up past AJB that a few other WR's are hitting each year and I understand why someone would try and see if they can reach that level. Saying all that this would be ridicilous if AJB was 23, he may not be old now, but one thing that's not a risk is you are getting 5 years younger and law of averages tells us that's more then half a career of most successful WR's.

I got 1.1 in a non-TEP league and I was offered basically Bowers and AJB for 1.1 I'd pass, at least for now, but that's a little team specific.

Sure, I totally get it. But on the other hand, we have zero guarantee that MH2 lives up to the hype. We also don’t yet know his landing spot, which could be detrimental to his upside.

Bird in the hand - I’ll take AJB + 1.04 because while I’m still taking a risk on a rookie WR or TE, I know I’m getting at least low-end WR1 production from AJB.

There’s also the greater than zero possibility that AJB plays for a different team.

The age decrease is definitely valuable, but again, only if MH2 lives up to the hype. If his career is more Tyler Boyd than Ja’Marr Chase, the extra years become less relevant.

For sure there’s a risk vs reward factor here. But while considering that, I have to ask “what current player could I get for AJB + 1.04”? That’s potentially enough to get Lamb or Chase. So trading that for a rookie who’s team is unknown seems quite a bit riskier.

But hey, it’s not my trade - go get the player you covet at whatever cost I guess. It’s just not a deal I’d make.

ETA: as a Lamb shareholder in one league, someone offered me AJB + 1.04 I would have to seriously consider it. It might not be a smash accept, but depending on team needs, it might.

 

[JohnnyU]

MH2’s upside is like, top 5 WR?
ABJ’s upside is like, top 5 WR?

To be fair AJB may have more upside but he's not actually had a top 5 season in PPG but more to the point there is a level of fantasy production he's not hit that other WR's have. He's been in the 18 PPG range his best two seasons. We had two WR's go over 23 PPG last year, two over 22 PPG the year previous, two over that mark the previous. That's not a lot of Wr's of course but we typically see 4-5 most years hit that 20 PPG range. Just trying to say there is another level that AJB has not reached, my guess is won't reach in this offense.

That may all seem trivial, a few points, but for example the gap between AJB and Lamb is the same as the gap between AJB and Jakobi Myers.

Just saying I do think there is a level up past AJB that a few other WR's are hitting each year and I understand why someone would try and see if they can reach that level. Saying all that this would be ridicilous if AJB was 23, he may not be old now, but one thing that's not a risk is you are getting 5 years younger and law of averages tells us that's more then half a career of most successful WR's.

I got 1.1 in a non-TEP league and I was offered basically Bowers and AJB for 1.1 I'd pass, at least for now, but that's a little team specific.

Sure, I totally get it. But on the other hand, we have zero guarantee that MH2 lives up to the hype. We also don’t yet know his landing spot, which could be detrimental to his upside.

Bird in the hand - I’ll take AJB + 1.04 because while I’m still taking a risk on a rookie WR, I know I’m getting at least low-end WR1 production from AJB.

There’s also the greater than zero possibility that AJB plays for a different team.

The age decrease is definitely valuable, but again, only if MH2 lives up to the hype. If his career is more Tyler Boyd than Ja’Marr Chase, the extra years become less relevant.

For sure there’s a risk va reward factor here. But while considering that, I have to ask “what current player could I get for AJB + 1.04”? That’s potentially enough to get Lamb or Chase. So trading that for a rookie who’s team is unknown seems quite a bit riskier.

But hey, it’s not my trade - go get the player you covet at whatever cost I guess. It’s just not a deal I’d make.

I think Bowers or Odunze and AJB is a haul for MHjr.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think Bowers or Odunze and AJB is a haul for MHjr.

I agree.

If you think MH2 is the next JJ or Lamb, maybe first check to see if you can actually get JJ or Lamb for that package.

proven production has value.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Ok. And?
Many of us have been looking ahead to get MHjr for a couple years. If we’re in that position, we’re not giving it up cheap.

Echoes my responses when I had 1.01 last year and was mesmerized by the potential of Bijan as the next LT2/Faulk.

When I look back at the offers I rejected, and the production I actually got from Bijan, I definitely should have accepted at least 2 of those trade offers.

 

[-OZ-]

Ok. And?
Many of us have been looking ahead to get MHjr for a couple years. If we’re in that position, we’re not giving it up cheap.

Echoes my responses when I had 1.01 last year and was mesmerized by the potential of Bijan as the next LT2/Faulk.

When I look back at the offers I rejected, and the production I actually got from Bijan, I definitely should have accepted at least 2 of those trade offers.

For one year, sure. Reevaluate in 3-5.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

For one year, sure. Reevaluate in 3-5.

Definitely possible.

Point is that nothing is guaranteed in FF. It’s rookie hype SZN. Bijan was supposed to be “the perfect storm” of generational talent, hyper-run-1st coach, & landing spot in general (not a ton of offensive weapons, offense would run through Bijan, etc)

Seemingly none of that happened, and right now we know significantly less about MH2.

NYG drafts him & 1.04 + AJB is gonna look a heck of a lot more attractive IMO. Even more than it already does.

For this trade to pay dividends, MH2 practically has to come out of the gate as a top 5 FF WR.

Possible, but unlikely based on numerous factors.

 

[smbkrypt24]

For one year, sure. Reevaluate in 3-5.

Definitely possible.

Point is that nothing is guaranteed in FF. It’s rookie hype SZN. Bijan was supposed to be “the perfect storm” of generational talent, hyper-run-1st coach, & landing spot in general (not a ton of offensive weapons, offense would run through Bijan, etc)

Seemingly none of that happened, and right now we know significantly less about MH2.

NYG drafts him & 1.04 + AJB is gonna look a heck of a lot more attractive IMO. Even more than it already does.

For this trade to pay dividends, MH2 practically has to come out of the gate as a top 5 FF WR.

Possible, but unlikely based on numerous factors.

Not remotely true. If MHJ is a solid WR2 or WR1 in year one I will be pleased. He doesn't need to be top 5 this season for this to work out.
AJB has been a good WR for the past few seasons. He doesn't have that elite upside that I am hoping MHJ has. AJB has always been outside that elite tier of WR.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Not remotely true. If MHJ is a solid WR2 or WR1 in year one I will be pleased. He doesn't need to be top 5 this season for this to work out.
AJB has been a good WR for the past few seasons. He doesn't have that elite upside that I am hoping MHJ has. AJB has always been outside that elite tier of WR.

But it wasn’t a 1:1 for AJB. The argument you’re making only makes sense if it was.

It’s the 1.04 + AJB

That matters. A lot.

It’s absolutely true. MH2 *must* deliver a WR1 caliber season for this to be remotely close.

If he’s a WR2 this year, as you assert, that’s a rough return on that investment.

Moreover, if he’s not as good as AJB, that’s also concerning.

And if the pick at 1.04 hits, then oof - this will look even worse.

If he comes out as Lamb or Chase, it’s fair value.

 

[smbkrypt24]

Not remotely true. If MHJ is a solid WR2 or WR1 in year one I will be pleased. He doesn't need to be top 5 this season for this to work out.
AJB has been a good WR for the past few seasons. He doesn't have that elite upside that I am hoping MHJ has. AJB has always been outside that elite tier of WR.

But it wasn’t a 1:1 for AJB. The argument you’re making only makes sense if it was.

It’s the 1.04 + AJB

That matters. A lot.

It’s absolutely true. MH2 *must* deliver a WR1 caliber season for this to be remotely close.

If he’s a WR2 this year, as you assert, that’s a rough return on that investment.

Moreover, if he’s not as good as AJB, that’s also concerning.

And if the pick at 1.04 hits, then oof - this will look even worse.

If he comes out as Lamb or Chase, it’s fair value.

This is not a 1 year deal. This is dynasty.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Not remotely true. If MHJ is a solid WR2 or WR1 in year one I will be pleased. He doesn't need to be top 5 this season for this to work out.
AJB has been a good WR for the past few seasons. He doesn't have that elite upside that I am hoping MHJ has. AJB has always been outside that elite tier of WR.

But it wasn’t a 1:1 for AJB. The argument you’re making only makes sense if it was.

It’s the 1.04 + AJB

That matters. A lot.

It’s absolutely true. MH2 *must* deliver a WR1 caliber season for this to be remotely close.

If he’s a WR2 this year, as you assert, that’s a rough return on that investment.

Moreover, if he’s not as good as AJB, that’s also concerning.

And if the pick at 1.04 hits, then oof - this will look even worse.

If he comes out as Lamb or Chase, it’s fair value.

This is not a 1 year deal. This is dynasty.

Never said it was.

But the point remains. AJB + 1.04 is very likely to wildly exceed MH2’s value, both short and long-term.

You acknowledged that it was a massive overpay, so I’m confused as to why you’d be defending this as though it isn’t.

That said, it’s not a hill I need to die on. Not my trade. Good luck with your investment. I sincerely hope it works out for you.

 

[smbkrypt24]

Not remotely true. If MHJ is a solid WR2 or WR1 in year one I will be pleased. He doesn't need to be top 5 this season for this to work out.
AJB has been a good WR for the past few seasons. He doesn't have that elite upside that I am hoping MHJ has. AJB has always been outside that elite tier of WR.

But it wasn’t a 1:1 for AJB. The argument you’re making only makes sense if it was.

It’s the 1.04 + AJB

That matters. A lot.

It’s absolutely true. MH2 *must* deliver a WR1 caliber season for this to be remotely close.

If he’s a WR2 this year, as you assert, that’s a rough return on that investment.

Moreover, if he’s not as good as AJB, that’s also concerning.

And if the pick at 1.04 hits, then oof - this will look even worse.

If he comes out as Lamb or Chase, it’s fair value.

This is not a 1 year deal. This is dynasty.

Never said it was.

But the point remains. AJB + 1.04 is very likely to wildly exceed MH2’s value, both short and long-term.

You acknowledged that it was a massive overpay, so I’m confused as to why you’d be defending this as though it isn’t.

That said, it’s not a hill I need to die on. Not my trade. Good luck with your investment. I sincerely hope it works out for you.

quick answer: overpay now to get the asset I view as elite in the future. I am willing to lose short term to gain long term.
It may work out or MHJ may flop.

 

[mzkp54]

12 team SF PPR IDP

Gave: Dell, 2.11, 2 ‘25 1sts
Got: ARSB

 

[King of the Jungle]

For one year, sure. Reevaluate in 3-5.

Definitely possible.

Point is that nothing is guaranteed in FF. It’s rookie hype SZN. Bijan was supposed to be “the perfect storm” of generational talent, hyper-run-1st coach, & landing spot in general (not a ton of offensive weapons, offense would run through Bijan, etc)

Seemingly none of that happened, and right now we know significantly less about MH2.

NYG drafts him & 1.04 + AJB is gonna look a heck of a lot more attractive IMO. Even more than it already does.

For this trade to pay dividends, MH2 practically has to come out of the gate as a top 5 FF WR.

Possible, but unlikely based on numerous factors.

Not remotely true. If MHJ is a solid WR2 or WR1 in year one I will be pleased. He doesn't need to be top 5 this season for this to work out.
AJB has been a good WR for the past few seasons. He doesn't have that elite upside that I am hoping MHJ has. AJB has always been outside that elite tier of WR.

88-1496-11 & 106-1456-7 is not elite? What kind of numbers are you hoping MHJr is able to produce?

 

[-OZ-]

88-1496-11 & 106-1456-7 is not elite? What kind of numbers are you hoping MHJr is able to produce?

867-5309-42

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

12 team SF PPR IDP

Gave: Dell, 2.11, 2 ‘25 1sts
Got: ARSB

That’s a nice get. Fair price. Not a bargain. But with ARSB’s age I don’t mind paying the future picks.

 

[mzkp54]

12 team SF PPR IDP

Gave: Dell, 2.11, 2 ‘25 1sts
Got: ARSB

That’s a nice get. Fair price. Not a bargain. But with ARSB’s age I don’t mind paying the future picks.

I am flush with picks (still have 1.02, 1.11, 3 '25 1sts, and 4 '26 1sts) and am pairing ARSB with JJ, Lamb, and DJM. Pretty happy with it.

 

[smbkrypt24]

For one year, sure. Reevaluate in 3-5.

Definitely possible.

Point is that nothing is guaranteed in FF. It’s rookie hype SZN. Bijan was supposed to be “the perfect storm” of generational talent, hyper-run-1st coach, & landing spot in general (not a ton of offensive weapons, offense would run through Bijan, etc)

Seemingly none of that happened, and right now we know significantly less about MH2.

NYG drafts him & 1.04 + AJB is gonna look a heck of a lot more attractive IMO. Even more than it already does.

For this trade to pay dividends, MH2 practically has to come out of the gate as a top 5 FF WR.

Possible, but unlikely based on numerous factors.

Not remotely true. If MHJ is a solid WR2 or WR1 in year one I will be pleased. He doesn't need to be top 5 this season for this to work out.
AJB has been a good WR for the past few seasons. He doesn't have that elite upside that I am hoping MHJ has. AJB has always been outside that elite tier of WR.

88-1496-11 & 106-1456-7 is not elite? What kind of numbers are you hoping MHJr is able to produce?

Fantasy speaking he has never eclipsed 300 fantasy points.
A bar that Kupp, Deebo, Adams (2), Jefferson (2), Chase, T. Hill (2), Lamb, and ARSB all have as WRs the past few seasons.
Again, he is not in that elite tier

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

88-1496-11 & 106-1456-7 is not elite? What kind of numbers are you hoping MHJr is able to produce?

Yeah, I don’t know how anyone says AJB isn’t elite. Cmon

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Again, he is not in that elite tier

And you’re betting a top 4 rookie prospect that MH2 is better?

Big gamble.

Also worth noting, AJB’s career isn’t nearly over. He could well join that group - he’s been super close. He’s 27.

Adams & Kupp are close to the end while AJB is in his prime.

Do you think JJ will be there without Cousins?

 

[titusbramble]

12 team SF PPR IDP

Gave: Dell, 2.11, 2 ‘25 1sts
Got: ARSB

Love ARSB but I'd probably sell for that

 

[smbkrypt24]

88-1496-11 & 106-1456-7 is not elite? What kind of numbers are you hoping MHJr is able to produce?

Yeah, I don’t know how anyone says AJB isn’t elite. Cmon

I literally engaged with you regarding total points and another poster provided statistics on PPG. Both are not at the top. I am not sure at this point if you are interested in an intelligent conversation or just trolling.

 

[Da Franchise]

88-1496-11 & 106-1456-7 is not elite? What kind of numbers are you hoping MHJr is able to produce?

Yeah, I don’t know how anyone says AJB isn’t elite. Cmon

I literally engaged with you regarding total points and another poster provided statistics on PPG. Both are not at the top. I am not sure at this point if you are interested in an intelligent conversation or just trolling.

I have AJB outside the elite tier as well, if only by a smidge. However this argument of him not scoring 300 points is about as obtuse as it gets considering the last two years he’s scored 299 and 289 points.

 

[smbkrypt24]

88-1496-11 & 106-1456-7 is not elite? What kind of numbers are you hoping MHJr is able to produce?

Yeah, I don’t know how anyone says AJB isn’t elite. Cmon

I literally engaged with you regarding total points and another poster provided statistics on PPG. Both are not at the top. I am not sure at this point if you are interested in an intelligent conversation or just trolling.

I have AJB outside the elite tier as well, if only by a smidge. However this argument of him not scoring 300 points is about as obtuse as it gets considering the last two years he’s scored 299 and 289 points.

300 isn't necessarily a threshold, but the players scoring above it are not just right at the 300 mark. Meno's PPG is the better way to look at it. Since that was already posted I didn't repeat it.
The last 3 years in my PPR leagues AJB had PPG:
13.675
18.1
18.2

The other WRs (above that 300 line):
Were scoring 20, 20, 21, 22, 22, 23, 23, 25 PPG
Kupp, Deebo, Adams, Jefferson, Hill, Lamb, and ARSB

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I literally engaged with you regarding total points and another poster provided statistics on PPG. Both are not at the top. I am not sure at this point if you are interested in an intelligent conversation or just trolling

Not trolling at all.

I believe AJB is elite.

You’re using an extremely narrow definition of “elite”. That doesn’t mean he’s not, it means you’re changing the definition to suit your argument.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Kupp, Deebo, Adams, Jefferson, Hill, Lamb, and ARSB

Who defined those 8 players over that threshold as the only “elite” tier? You.

Also, is this you planting a flag that MH2 is 100% guaranteed going to be in that tier? Because if not, your argument doesn’t even make sense.

Not only does MH2 have to be in that tier, but he has to be SO much better than AJB that the pick at 1.04 is irrelevant. Because this was AJB+1.04, right?

You were on point when you admitted it was a massive overpay. These arguments are kinda disingenuous.

 

[Lehigh98]

Damn I rank AJB a top 5 dynasty WR, and he's not old, so never thought that would be considered a lowball. Maybe I'm higher on AJB than most.

I just extremely overpaid for 1.01 by sending 1.04 and AJB.

A couple points of reference, assuming this is 1 QB and non-TEP...

KTC says:
1.01 side = 10,385 (9,086 for 1.01 + 1,299 "value adjustment")
AJB + 1.04 side = 15,026 (7,718 for AJB + 7,308 for 1.04)
(KTC has AJB as WR8 w/ 2024 rookies included, MHJ is WR5)

DLF says:
1.01 side = 825.0 (825.0 for 1.01, no "value adjustment")
AJB + 1.04 side = 1411.1 (874.9 for AJB + 536.3 for 1.04)
(DLF has AJB as WR5 w/o 2024 rookies included)

 

[Da Franchise]

88-1496-11 & 106-1456-7 is not elite? What kind of numbers are you hoping MHJr is able to produce?

Yeah, I don’t know how anyone says AJB isn’t elite. Cmon

I literally engaged with you regarding total points and another poster provided statistics on PPG. Both are not at the top. I am not sure at this point if you are interested in an intelligent conversation or just trolling.

I have AJB outside the elite tier as well, if only by a smidge. However this argument of him not scoring 300 points is about as obtuse as it gets considering the last two years he’s scored 299 and 289 points.

300 isn't necessarily a threshold, but the players scoring above it are not just right at the 300 mark. Meno's PPG is the better way to look at it. Since that was already posted I didn't repeat it.
The last 3 years in my PPR leagues AJB had PPG:
13.675
18.1
18.2

The other WRs (above that 300 line):
Were scoring 20, 20, 21, 22, 22, 23, 23, 25 PPG
Kupp, Deebo, Adams, Jefferson, Hill, Lamb, and ARSB

You set the threshold at 300 when you said:

“Fantasy speaking he has never eclipsed 300 fantasy points.
A bar that Kupp, Deebo, Adams (2), Jefferson (2), Chase, T. Hill (2), Lamb, and ARSB all have as WRs the past few seasons.
Again, he is not in that elite tier”

The actual point here is the last few seasons, the elite fantasy WR scoring seasons are checking in with a range of about 330-400+ points. There are generally 3-4 players that hit that mark each year, but even within that tier there’s a pretty big gap between 330 and 400+. AJB has not reached that mark by any measurement, but he’s still in a separate pack from the more typical 200-250 point producer, of which there are many. So, he’s been a big difference maker, but also hasn’t reached that ultra elite producer tier.

I’ve always felt the community throws around WR1/WR2 etc way too loosely…like there’s 12 of each of them every year. There’s not. Last year for example I would say there were:

WR1: (2) Lamb, Tyreek
WR2: (1) ARSB (Keenan and Jefferson also by PPG)
WR3: (6) Puka, Nico, AJB, Moore, Evans, Chase

Etc and the tiers keep getting wider as you go along. Bottom line is we don’t put enough emphasis on that elite tier and the separation between it and the next couple.

So I’m sort of agreeing with you in general but when I see “never eclipsed 300 points” it’s like nails on a chalkboard because it’s an arbitrary figure and doesn’t get to the real point.

As to the trade…I don’t see AJB cracking the elite tier in Philly, so I can understand betting the 1.04 that whomever you draft at 1.01 might be able to. At worst, you’re probably getting extra 5 seasons of similar production as AJB, which is extremely valuable. I’d probably want to see landing spots before doing it, but I don’t think it’s an awful trade, particularly if you’re thinking the 1.04 is Bowers and not one of the 3 elite WR prospects.

It’s the kind of deal you could afford to do if you’ve built up a lot of value capital. At some point you have to win and the best way to do that is cash in value to maximize the weekly starting lineup.

 

[smbkrypt24]

88-1496-11 & 106-1456-7 is not elite? What kind of numbers are you hoping MHJr is able to produce?

Yeah, I don’t know how anyone says AJB isn’t elite. Cmon

I literally engaged with you regarding total points and another poster provided statistics on PPG. Both are not at the top. I am not sure at this point if you are interested in an intelligent conversation or just trolling.

I have AJB outside the elite tier as well, if only by a smidge. However this argument of him not scoring 300 points is about as obtuse as it gets considering the last two years he’s scored 299 and 289 points.

300 isn't necessarily a threshold, but the players scoring above it are not just right at the 300 mark. Meno's PPG is the better way to look at it. Since that was already posted I didn't repeat it.
The last 3 years in my PPR leagues AJB had PPG:
13.675
18.1
18.2

The other WRs (above that 300 line):
Were scoring 20, 20, 21, 22, 22, 23, 23, 25 PPG
Kupp, Deebo, Adams, Jefferson, Hill, Lamb, and ARSB

You set the threshold at 300 when you said:

“Fantasy speaking he has never eclipsed 300 fantasy points.
A bar that Kupp, Deebo, Adams (2), Jefferson (2), Chase, T. Hill (2), Lamb, and ARSB all have as WRs the past few seasons.
Again, he is not in that elite tier”

The actual point here is the last few seasons, the elite fantasy WR scoring seasons are checking in with a range of about 330-400+ points. There are generally 3-4 players that hit that mark each year, but even within that tier there’s a pretty big gap between 330 and 400+. AJB has not reached that mark by any measurement, but he’s still in a separate pack from the more typical 200-250 point producer, of which there are many. So, he’s been a big difference maker, but also hasn’t reached that ultra elite producer tier.

I’ve always felt the community throws around WR1/WR2 etc way too loosely…like there’s 12 of each of them every year. There’s not. Last year for example I would say there were:

WR1: (2) Lamb, Tyreek
WR2: (1) ARSB (Keenan and Jefferson also by PPG)
WR3: (6) Puka, Nico, AJB, Moore, Evans, Chase

Etc and the tiers keep getting wider as you go along. Bottom line is we don’t put enough emphasis on that elite tier and the separation between it and the next couple.

So I’m sort of agreeing with you in general but when I see “never eclipsed 300 points” it’s like nails on a chalkboard because it’s an arbitrary figure and doesn’t get to the real point.

As to the trade…I don’t see AJB cracking the elite tier in Philly, so I can understand betting the 1.04 that whomever you draft at 1.01 might be able to. At worst, you’re probably getting extra 5 seasons of similar production as AJB, which is extremely valuable. I’d probably want to see landing spots before doing it, but I don’t think it’s an awful trade, particularly if you’re thinking the 1.04 is Bowers and not one of the 3 elite WR prospects.

It’s the kind of deal you could afford to do if you’ve built up a lot of value capital. At some point you have to win and the best way to do that is cash in value to maximize the weekly starting lineup.

Yes, which is why I switched to PPG. 300 threshold is not the point of any of my posts. I also agree that I find it to be nails on the chalkboard with those numbers when he was so close and didn’t do a good job of explaining it’s more about him being below all those that are 2-5+ ppg higher average in that elite tier.
I am not even defending my trade I called it an overpay, just some posts that are off track with needing MHJ top 5 this year for it to work out, AJB elite WR, etc

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

just some posts that are off track with needing MHJ top 5 this year for it to work out, AJB elite WR, etc

Respectfully, whether it’s this year or next, at some point MH2 absolutely must hit that “elite tier” as you defined it, or literally every argument you just made about PPG or 300 points per season is completely moot.

Because the cost of MH2 was AJB + 1.04

The purpose of the deal was to upgrade & get a player who was more elite than AJB, again, according to your own definitions.

Not really sure why pointing that out would be in any way controversial.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Damn I rank AJB a top 5 dynasty WR, and he's not old, so never thought that would be considered a lowball. Maybe I'm higher on AJB than most.

I just extremely overpaid for 1.01 by sending 1.04 and AJB.

A couple points of reference, assuming this is 1 QB and non-TEP...

KTC says:
1.01 side = 10,385 (9,086 for 1.01 + 1,299 "value adjustment")
AJB + 1.04 side = 15,026 (7,718 for AJB + 7,308 for 1.04)
(KTC has AJB as WR8 w/ 2024 rookies included, MHJ is WR5)

DLF says:
1.01 side = 825.0 (825.0 for 1.01, no "value adjustment")
AJB + 1.04 side = 1411.1 (874.9 for AJB + 536.3 for 1.04)
(DLF has AJB as WR5 w/o 2024 rookies included)

Dynasty Dominator set to 12 teams 1 QB has it
AJB+1.04 = 376.87
Pick 1.01 = 272.61

Bear in mind, DD provides value for the +1 roster spot gained when dealing away a player for a pick.

That all said, I’m extremely weary of trade calc rookie valuation prior to the NFL draft. If MH2 is Danny Dimes’ WR1, I probably disagree with that valuation. If by some miracle the Bills or Chiefs deal up for MH2, then the value could go up. It’s a TBD for sure.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

12 team SF PPR IDP

Gave: Dell, 2.11, 2 ‘25 1sts
Got: ARSB

Love ARSB but I'd probably sell for that

I probably would too, but I can definitely see paying that in the right context as well.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

At worst, you’re probably getting extra 5 seasons of similar production as AJB, which is extremely valuable

That’s really not a worst case scenario. I’d suggest that is a LOT closer to a “best case scenario” for any rookie WR.

I could easily come up with a dozen “at worst” statements that would eclipse that as worst case.

Henry Ruggs is worst case scenario. There’s a wide range of outcomes between Ruggs & what AJB gives you year after year. Even simple nagging soft tissue injuries or landing on a terrible offense would make this a bad deal. I’d list more but