Official 2024 Kentucky Derby Thread (14 Viewers)

[Leroy Hoard]

Just drew the 9th pick in our annual $20 entry draft to win $400. Most of my favorites were chosen so I ended up taking the #8. Currently 17-1, it looks like I will require "just a touch" of luck.

More like a touch of suck. The donkey finished dead last.

 

[Chemical X]

did not even consider mystik dan. but, fierceness is a pig.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

I feel like fierceness either wires it or off the board. Just hoping someone goes with him and we get some closers coming home

Mainly have this tri

2 4 17
2 4 7 8 14 17 20
2-4 6-8 11 12 14 15 17-20

Smaller one with 7 14 up top

I don’t think I’ve seen a horse close on the dirt and I’ve been watching seen 1030 am

@Chemical X

What’s funny?

 

[Chemical X]

I feel like fierceness either wires it or off the board. Just hoping someone goes with him and we get some closers coming home

Mainly have this tri

2 4 17
2 4 7 8 14 17 20
2-4 6-8 11 12 14 15 17-20

Smaller one with 7 14 up top

I don’t think I’ve seen a horse close on the dirt and I’ve been watching seen 1030 am

@Chemical X

What’s funny?

lol. i missed the word close. i am a bit tired and thought you were referencing NBC race coverage and that you haven’t seen a horse ON the dirt in like forever……

 

[Cowboysfan8]

I feel like fierceness either wires it or off the board. Just hoping someone goes with him and we get some closers coming home

Mainly have this tri

2 4 17
2 4 7 8 14 17 20
2-4 6-8 11 12 14 15 17-20

Smaller one with 7 14 up top

I don’t think I’ve seen a horse close on the dirt and I’ve been watching seen 1030 am

@Chemical X

What’s funny?

lol. i missed the word close. i am a bit tired and thought you were referencing NBC race coverage and that you haven’t seen a horse ON the dirt in like forever……

 

[Chemical X]

I feel like fierceness either wires it or off the board. Just hoping someone goes with him and we get some closers coming home

Mainly have this tri

2 4 17
2 4 7 8 14 17 20
2-4 6-8 11 12 14 15 17-20

Smaller one with 7 14 up top

I don’t think I’ve seen a horse close on the dirt and I’ve been watching seen 1030 am

@Chemical X

What’s funny?

lol. i missed the word close. i am a bit tired and thought you were referencing NBC race coverage and that you haven’t seen a horse ON the dirt in like forever……

i watch the race, but i hate their coverage. it’s a pet peeve of mine. it’s like the olympics….21 very special stories of someone’s father passing away, someone having a terminal illness, etc. i loathe human interest stuff within a sporting event.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

I feel like fierceness either wires it or off the board. Just hoping someone goes with him and we get some closers coming home

Mainly have this tri

2 4 17
2 4 7 8 14 17 20
2-4 6-8 11 12 14 15 17-20

Smaller one with 7 14 up top

I don’t think I’ve seen a horse close on the dirt and I’ve been watching seen 1030 am

@Chemical X

What’s funny?

lol. i missed the word close. i am a bit tired and thought you were referencing NBC race coverage and that you haven’t seen a horse ON the dirt in like forever……

i watch the race, but i hate their coverage. it’s a pet peeve of mine. it’s like the olympics….21 very special stories of someone’s father passing away, someone having a terminal illness, etc. i loathe human interest stuff within a sporting event.

Agreed 100%

I was streaming FanDuel racing but it kept freezing so I switched to peacock mid afternoon. Not a single post parade smh

 

[Judge Smails]

Some post mortems, comments and lessons learned:

1) The Derby is such a rush. Greatest 2 minutes in sports. From a handicapper's perspective, it is the greatest puzzle to solve.
2) Most of the old axioms are out. Horses having too few races, horses coming from UAE, Japan, etc. If you have a fast enough horse who has the right style and can get a mile and a quarter you can win
3) Japan will win this sooner than later and is a threat for all of the big events. They already are winning those, including Breeder's Cups, Dubai World Cup and in Europe. They are especially good at training for stamina. God bless those Sunday Silence (my favorite horse ever) bloodlines.
4) Forever Young was the best horse in the race yesterday. Sierra Leone bothered him big time (mutual bumping, but it was started by SL and it continued the last 16th, including Gafflione reaching over - what was that?). Bumping caused both horses to lose but it was worse for Forever Young. Here was Forever Young's trip. I've never seen a horse overcome this kind of trip in the Derby
" FOREVER YOUNG (JPN) lunged at the start and was away slow, was caught in traffic into the first turn and steadied near the fifteen-sixteenths pole, leveled into stride and moved out five wide, mounted a long drive a half mile out, moved up swiftly through the second turn, came seven wide into the stretch, swapped bumps repeatedly with SIERRA LEONE through the upper stretch, battled on stubbornly between rivals thereafter but was narrowly bested"
5) TO Password's race was also unreal, proving Japan is going to win this. He also had a brutal trip and after the top 4 was the only horse finishing down the lane to finish 5th. Almost unimaginable to think with a horse with 2 lifetime starts and shipping from another country could run that good of a race in the Derby
6) Fierceness proved once again the dangers of a one dimensional speed horse going 1 1/4 miles in the Derby, no matter how fast. Baffert had several go wire to wire in the past decade but overall it's still tough to do. Have to get a perfect break with everything going their way. Fierceness hopped a bit, but just wasn't good enough. Pletcher did a poor job of getting this horse to learn how to rate. He's still the fastest horse in the class, but was an iffy bet yesterday with some of us getting lulled by his odds drifting up from 8-5 to 7/2. Probably won't see him again until the Travers.
7) If you think the top speed horse may fold, probably should toss all of the other speed as well. Just Steel and Just a Touch completely caved in.
8) Prat has shown repeatedly that he can get his horses clear and running down the lane in the Derby. Catching Freedom had a similar trip as Angel of Envy and was coming. Not good enough to win, but right there.
9) Mystik Dan was a complete whiff by me - and it only takes one. He was fast enough running a 103 and a 97, but it got in my mind that his big race at Oaklawn was aided by the slop. He got a similar ground saving ride on the rail (brilliant ride by Hernandez) and opened up, just like at Oaklawn. He should have been on the list of contenders. I think he was 3rd best with the outside 2 costing themselves with the trip and bumping, but Mystik Dan's win was no fluke. He was in perfect position the entire way, no worse than 6th, then pounced when the rail opened. He belonged and I missed it. Especially since he loved wet ground and there was moisture at Churchill. I should have pivoted and included him on that fact alone. Proves why this is the greatest puzzle to solve.

On to the Preakness and Belmont!

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

I feel like fierceness either wires it or off the board. Just hoping someone goes with him and we get some closers coming home

Mainly have this tri

2 4 17
2 4 7 8 14 17 20
2-4 6-8 11 12 14 15 17-20

Smaller one with 7 14 up top

I don’t think I’ve seen a horse close on the dirt and I’ve been watching seen 1030 am

@Chemical X

What’s funny?

lol. i missed the word close. i am a bit tired and thought you were referencing NBC race coverage and that you haven’t seen a horse ON the dirt in like forever……

i watch the race, but i hate their coverage. it’s a pet peeve of mine. it’s like the olympics….21 very special stories of someone’s father passing away, someone having a terminal illness, etc. i loathe human interest stuff within a sporting event.

Tirico is awful as well.

 

[Phil Elliott]

I feel like fierceness either wires it or off the board. Just hoping someone goes with him and we get some closers coming home

Mainly have this tri

2 4 17
2 4 7 8 14 17 20
2-4 6-8 11 12 14 15 17-20

Smaller one with 7 14 up top

I don’t think I’ve seen a horse close on the dirt and I’ve been watching seen 1030 am

Yeah definitely seems speed favoring. I capped it yesterday and didn’t have much time to watch today so just sticking with it

Following Fierceness A/B pattern of good race/bad race, Fierceness should be a good bet in the Preakness.

 

[Judge Smails]

I feel like fierceness either wires it or off the board. Just hoping someone goes with him and we get some closers coming home

Mainly have this tri

2 4 17
2 4 7 8 14 17 20
2-4 6-8 11 12 14 15 17-20

Smaller one with 7 14 up top

I don’t think I’ve seen a horse close on the dirt and I’ve been watching seen 1030 am

Yeah definitely seems speed favoring. I capped it yesterday and didn’t have much time to watch today so just sticking with it

Following Fierceness A/B pattern of good race/bad race, Fierceness should be a good bet in the Preakness.

It would be interesting to see if he goes. Haven't heard. McPeek is saying Mystik Dan isn't a definite - so no sure how many will go to Baltimore vs waiting for the Belmont - or skipping the rest of the Triple Crown all together.

 

[Phil Elliott]

I feel like fierceness either wires it or off the board. Just hoping someone goes with him and we get some closers coming home

Mainly have this tri

2 4 17
2 4 7 8 14 17 20
2-4 6-8 11 12 14 15 17-20

Smaller one with 7 14 up top

I don’t think I’ve seen a horse close on the dirt and I’ve been watching seen 1030 am

Yeah definitely seems speed favoring. I capped it yesterday and didn’t have much time to watch today so just sticking with it

Following Fierceness A/B pattern of good race/bad race, Fierceness should be a good bet in the Preakness.

Actually it's probable that none of the Derby horses race in The Preakness and many focusing on the Belmont.

 

[Phil Elliott]

Looks like Mystic Dan, Just Steel and Catching Freedom are probably running the Preakness.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

“As of Saturday, there were eight confirmed starters for the Preakness – Imagination (Frankie Dettori), Just Steel (Joel Rosario), Mugatu (Joe Bravo), Muth (Juan Hernandez), Mystik Dan (Brian Hernandez Jr.) Seize the Grey (Jaime Torres), Tuscan Gold (Tyler Gaffalione), and Uncle Heavy (Irad Ortiz Jr.).

Catching Freedom, fourth in the Kentucky Derby, and Copper Tax, winner of the Federico Tesio, are still considered possible.

The post position for the Preakness will take place Monday afternoon in downtown Baltimore.“

DRF

 

[-fish-]

“As of Saturday, there were eight confirmed starters for the Preakness – Imagination (Frankie Dettori), Just Steel (Joel Rosario), Mugatu (Joe Bravo), Muth (Juan Hernandez), Mystik Dan (Brian Hernandez Jr.) Seize the Grey (Jaime Torres), Tuscan Gold (Tyler Gaffalione), and Uncle Heavy (Irad Ortiz Jr.).

Catching Freedom, fourth in the Kentucky Derby, and Copper Tax, winner of the Federico Tesio, are still considered possible.

The post position for the Preakness will take place Monday afternoon in downtown Baltimore.“

DRF

Chasing Freedom is in. Copper Tax is out.

 

[Judge Smails]

Haven't look at PP's yet but my gut says the way to make money on this Preakness is to toss Mystik Dan. McPeek said right after the race that he didn't know because the last time he ran on short rest it was a disaster. This may be the owners pushing for it saying can't win the Triple Crown if you don't enter. Really don't have anything to lose. He's won the Derby and secured his breeding. It's probably Muth, Catching Freedom and a few others in consideration for me. I may be suckered into Just Steel again as the pace scenario will be much lighter in this one and all of the speed died in the Derby.

 

[-fish-]

Haven't look at PP's yet but my gut says the way to make money on this Preakness is to toss Mystik Dan. McPeek said right after the race that he didn't know because the last time he ran on short rest it was a disaster. This may be the owners pushing for it saying can't win the Triple Crown if you don't enter. Really don't have anything to lose. He's won the Derby and secured his breeding. It's probably Muth, Catching Freedom and a few others in consideration for me. I may be suckered into Just Steel again as the pace scenario will be much lighter in this one and all of the speed died in the Derby.

Muth and Imagination are going to the front; everyone else will be chasing. Catching Freedom getting a lot of love for coming in 4th in the Derby. I didn't see anything that special and with the short rest I'd look elsewhere and at one of the horses that skipped the Derby and was targeting this.

I like Imagination a little more than Muth, but I think these two battle to the stretch with Tuscan Gold up close. Taking these three and tossing all of the horses coming off two weeks' rest, including Seize the Grey who won the Pat Day Mile on Derby day. I'm not sure why Uncle Heavy is even in this race, but Irad's up so maybe he can juice up a superfecta.

 

[McBokonon]

1/st Bet wagering guide: https://news.1st.com/wager-guides/p...medium=marketing&utm_campaign=PRK24WagerGuide

 

[QuizGuy66]

Muth scratched with a fever of 103 :(

-QG

 

[Leroy Hoard]

So will the 8 horses left be listed as 1-8 or is the 9 still the 9?

 

[-fish-]

Muth scratched with a fever of 103 :(

-QG

I'm shocked.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Muth scratched with a fever of 103 :(

-QG

I'm shocked.

What does this mean?

 

[-fish-]

Huh. Rain in the forecast the rest of the week. I'm still tossing Catching Freedom and going with the

Muth scratched with a fever of 103 :(

-QG

I'm shocked.

What does this mean?

Horses scratching for a last minute fever has often been code for they failed a drug test.

 

[QuizGuy66]

So will the 8 horses left be listed as 1-8 or is the 9 still the 9?

The saddle cloth numbers will stay the same since the draw already happened.

Horses 5 through 9 will move in one gate since Muth (#4) was scratched.

Linky to article on the scratch since I didn't post one before: Linky



-QG

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Happy Black Eyed Susan day peeps!

Who’s gambling today?

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Taking a shot with Lemon Muffin

 

[Cowboysfan8]

:allbymyself:

 

[McBokonon]

:allbymyself:

I’m half paying attention for MBS on Twinspires. I’m sure I’ll make some stupid losing bet for the main event.

 

[QuizGuy66]

*asks if any grey horses are in the race*
*reads list of entries*

So you know at least 1 horse in my combos



-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

Think I have the 4 in my combos. Not exactly a race setting up for a big payday.

Seize the Gray does have a win and a third in two races on off tracks but now I see that they were at 6 1/2 and 5 1/2 furlongs.

Actually a lot of mud experience in the field for such a small field

The question is what will win out: Dan's talent on the mud or the stress of a 2-week turn around.

Uncle Heavy and Tuscan Gold are probably the other two that will grace my tickets at this point.

-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

okay $5 ATB on Mystik Dan
$2 win on Uncle Heavy
$2 win on Seize the Grey of course
$1 ex box 2-5-6-8
$.50 tri box 2-5-6-8
$.10 superfecta box 2-5-6-8

$45.40 ready to circle the drain


-QG

 

[Cowboysfan8]

I’m tired of the “zomg 2 weeks back he can’t win it!”

The “experts” on TVG earlier were saying how smart Lukas is for running his horse back in 2 weeks lol.

If Dan doesn’t win today so be it, but I don’t think it’s because of the 2 weeks, maybe he just isn’t the best horse today

I’m on him again. Savers on Tuscan Gold and Catching Freedom

 

[Phil Elliott]

W Catching Freedom
P Just Steel
S Tuscan Gold

 

[Leroy Hoard]

LOL, one of the jockeys has a Dude Wipes ad on the back of his pants.

 

[Judge Smails]

Going against the grain a little bit, mainly because of price and toll of the Derby. I'm tossing both Mystik Dan and Catching Freedom though I know they could run 1-2. $20 box Tuscan Gold and Imagination. Also playing those 2 with Seize the Grey and Uncle Heavy in smaller boxes.

 

[McBokonon]

Money back win $10 on Twinspires with Tuscan Gold, $20 money back win (even if last) on Fanduel racing with Imagination.

Tri box 2/6/8/9

 

[QuizGuy66]

Just hard not to go with D Wayne Lukas. Hooray for the Grey!
-QG

 

[Willie Neslon]

Did that horse drift out?

Looks fine.

 

[Judge Smails]

Nice run by the the 6. Have no idea what Dettori was doing racing so far off the rail when the rail was best. But he wasn't good enough anyway. 8 had no chance after the break. Those 3 much the best today

 

[QuizGuy66]

The 3 cheated! Take down the 3!

Why no it's just a coincidence that that would give me the trifecta

-QG

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Good for Torres. And ol D Wayne

Btw, the winner won 2 weeks ago …