sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
Going a bit off the beaten path here. Apologies in advance if this topic is better placed in the Free for All.
For the longest time, the NFL had an obvious gaping hole in the Los Angeles market to leverage taxpayer subsidized stadiums. The card ultimately gets played when things don't fall the way of ownership in St. Louis and San Diego. Las Vegas emerges from its lengthy blacklist status as a venue for major pro sports and quickly gains the Raiders at the expense of Oakland.
This begs the question, is there a North American market left to play the next round of major stadium upgrades? If so, how many viable markets are there?
As someone who follows the big four, and even the MLS, it feels like there are 6 to 10 vacant markets that could reasonably fit right in with other NBA and NHL cities, given the right ownership groups and arena situation. A lot of these open markets that could work for the NHL, NBA, or even MLB, don't strike me as great options for the NFL. A lot of this is due to the regional footprint of NFL teams that extends much farther geographically and from within than the other leagues. The other component is the viability within these markets of a high-end NFL stadium to host ten games a year compared to a sports arena, or even a ballpark. I can see Salt Lake City building a new arena for the Jazz and Coyotes that both teams would be satisfied with. I can SLC building a ballpark to add MLB for the summer months. I might be proven wrong, but building a multi-billion dollar NFL domed stadium to lure an NFL team doesn't seem nearly as likely for this market. Same can be said of Portland, Sacramento, Oklahoma City, Austin/San Antonio, Memphis, Louisville, Hampton Roads, and a number of others.
Maybe the best place to look for the next market is from the recently fallen:
Oakland - With the 49ers in Santa Clara, I can maybe see a niche for another Bay Area team within the city. But even in a world where Oakland is willing to build, which seems unlikely, could the NFL work here with a team that isn't called the Raiders? I don't get the sense that an Oakland Outlaws team is going to win over any Raiders diehards even if they wear black and try to capture the spirit of the blackhole. My perception is that diehard Oakland Raiders fans either swore off the NFL or (more likely) continue to follow the Raiders in Las Vegas. Maybe a very small faction turned to the 49ers? Is this perception wrong? If the Raiders couldn't survive in Oakland, I can't see a non-Raiders team working.
San Diego - I see SD as slightly more viable than Oakland. Would a San Diego Chargers fanbase embrace a relocated or expansion team? Similar to the Raiders, I would imagine that any diehards just continue to follow the Chargers, make the occasional trip to SoFi, and dream of a day where they might come back. I'm sure there's some level of demand for the return of the Chargers. A San Diego Gulls expansion franchise or relocation from middle America seems far fetched. Maybe a new team in SD becomes more viable with time.
Saint Louis - I think this is the top North American market out there bar none. A fact that might make the NFL scared enough to keep cultivating its international markets. They obviously have a viable temporary home. I don't think there's any real talk of a stadium plan to lure a team back. I don't think STL is a must-have market in the NFL's eyes. However, I doubt there's any US metro area of this size that feels a bigger hole in their heart for a home team. I'm sure there's plenty of St. Louis Rams fans that continue to follow the LA Rams. I get the sense that the retention rate was nowhere near the level of SD Chargers and Oakland Raiders fans due to the move half-way across the country. Maybe a few pushed allegiances towards Indy? Maybe a few more went to the enemy cross state given their success? I would imagine that most St. Louis football fans would come home to a St. Louis home team.
Am I wrong that St. Louis is the most obvious market amongst the recently departed? Top destination within the U.S. if an owner can get a new stadium deal done? What about North America? I can definitely see the NFL being more excited about picking up Toronto. Is it true that the Bills have all the power they need to ensure this never happens, short of someone with very deep pockets making an offer they can't refuse?
If Toronto can make a go of it, would Vancouver be viable? I think they might have the same issue as Portland. A strong allegiance to the Seahawks amongst the NFL fans that are already there. Montreal? Personally, I think both of these would be lesser options to St. Louis. If it's possible, it's hard to imagine Toronto not being the first Canadian team.
Does Mexico City present the NFL with too many problems to be worthwhile in this decade? I have a feeling permanent teams in London and Germany might happen first.
Which city do you think makes the most sense, North American or otherwise? Railing against any further expansion isn't needed for this discussion. At some point, an existing team is going to need a new stadium and a credible threat to go with it.
For the longest time, the NFL had an obvious gaping hole in the Los Angeles market to leverage taxpayer subsidized stadiums. The card ultimately gets played when things don't fall the way of ownership in St. Louis and San Diego. Las Vegas emerges from its lengthy blacklist status as a venue for major pro sports and quickly gains the Raiders at the expense of Oakland.
This begs the question, is there a North American market left to play the next round of major stadium upgrades? If so, how many viable markets are there?
As someone who follows the big four, and even the MLS, it feels like there are 6 to 10 vacant markets that could reasonably fit right in with other NBA and NHL cities, given the right ownership groups and arena situation. A lot of these open markets that could work for the NHL, NBA, or even MLB, don't strike me as great options for the NFL. A lot of this is due to the regional footprint of NFL teams that extends much farther geographically and from within than the other leagues. The other component is the viability within these markets of a high-end NFL stadium to host ten games a year compared to a sports arena, or even a ballpark. I can see Salt Lake City building a new arena for the Jazz and Coyotes that both teams would be satisfied with. I can SLC building a ballpark to add MLB for the summer months. I might be proven wrong, but building a multi-billion dollar NFL domed stadium to lure an NFL team doesn't seem nearly as likely for this market. Same can be said of Portland, Sacramento, Oklahoma City, Austin/San Antonio, Memphis, Louisville, Hampton Roads, and a number of others.
Maybe the best place to look for the next market is from the recently fallen:
Oakland - With the 49ers in Santa Clara, I can maybe see a niche for another Bay Area team within the city. But even in a world where Oakland is willing to build, which seems unlikely, could the NFL work here with a team that isn't called the Raiders? I don't get the sense that an Oakland Outlaws team is going to win over any Raiders diehards even if they wear black and try to capture the spirit of the blackhole. My perception is that diehard Oakland Raiders fans either swore off the NFL or (more likely) continue to follow the Raiders in Las Vegas. Maybe a very small faction turned to the 49ers? Is this perception wrong? If the Raiders couldn't survive in Oakland, I can't see a non-Raiders team working.
San Diego - I see SD as slightly more viable than Oakland. Would a San Diego Chargers fanbase embrace a relocated or expansion team? Similar to the Raiders, I would imagine that any diehards just continue to follow the Chargers, make the occasional trip to SoFi, and dream of a day where they might come back. I'm sure there's some level of demand for the return of the Chargers. A San Diego Gulls expansion franchise or relocation from middle America seems far fetched. Maybe a new team in SD becomes more viable with time.
Saint Louis - I think this is the top North American market out there bar none. A fact that might make the NFL scared enough to keep cultivating its international markets. They obviously have a viable temporary home. I don't think there's any real talk of a stadium plan to lure a team back. I don't think STL is a must-have market in the NFL's eyes. However, I doubt there's any US metro area of this size that feels a bigger hole in their heart for a home team. I'm sure there's plenty of St. Louis Rams fans that continue to follow the LA Rams. I get the sense that the retention rate was nowhere near the level of SD Chargers and Oakland Raiders fans due to the move half-way across the country. Maybe a few pushed allegiances towards Indy? Maybe a few more went to the enemy cross state given their success? I would imagine that most St. Louis football fans would come home to a St. Louis home team.
Am I wrong that St. Louis is the most obvious market amongst the recently departed? Top destination within the U.S. if an owner can get a new stadium deal done? What about North America? I can definitely see the NFL being more excited about picking up Toronto. Is it true that the Bills have all the power they need to ensure this never happens, short of someone with very deep pockets making an offer they can't refuse?
If Toronto can make a go of it, would Vancouver be viable? I think they might have the same issue as Portland. A strong allegiance to the Seahawks amongst the NFL fans that are already there. Montreal? Personally, I think both of these would be lesser options to St. Louis. If it's possible, it's hard to imagine Toronto not being the first Canadian team.
Does Mexico City present the NFL with too many problems to be worthwhile in this decade? I have a feeling permanent teams in London and Germany might happen first.
Which city do you think makes the most sense, North American or otherwise? Railing against any further expansion isn't needed for this discussion. At some point, an existing team is going to need a new stadium and a credible threat to go with it.
For some reason, I feel like I'm more likely to go team name with the Raiders.
