James Davis (RB - Cle) (1 Viewer)

[GoldenBear]

I know that people frequently overreact to preseason performances, but consider James Davis' numbers for a moment when compared to Jamal Lewis':

Game 1

Lewis: 7/17 yds rushing, 0 receptions

Davis: 2/5 rushing, 1 reception for 6 yds

This game was terrible, the Browns were shut out, and both RBs played poorly

Game 2

Lewis: 7/23 yds rushing, TD, 1 reception for -1 yds

Davis: 12/116 rushing, TD, 2 receptions for 11 yds

Davis clearly had the better game here

Game 3

Lewis: 10/23 yds rushing, 4 receptions for 36 yds

James: 5/28 yds rushing, 4 receptions for 27 yds

Similar stats, although James had half the number of carries.

I know comparisons are difficult because on RB plays against the starters while the other plays against back-ups, but consider Lewis' age and lackluster performance the last few seasons and it quickly becomes clear that there's at least a chance that Davis cuts into his production substantially this year. Also, consider Henry's recent camp report:

With Jerome Harrison missing his second consecutive preseason game, James Davis continues to force his way into the picture. Davis showed good burst and vision, gaining 28 yards on five carries against the Titans backup defenders and added four receptions for 27 yards. Davis has been the only effective runner this offseason and it may not be long until he gets a look against better defenders.

Why does all this matter if the Browns are a terrible team? Simple. They play KC and Oakland is weeks 15/16. This means getting Davis as a late, late pick could be a shark move that translates into a highly productive playoff back.

 

[Yellow Line is Unoffcial]

I love Davis, I would be supprised if Lewis can hold him off.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

Link

Rookie Davis The Fastest Browns RB?

Wednesday, September 02, 2009

Posted By The Trenches 2:08 PM

The last of the Cleveland Browns’ eight 2009 draft picks is on course to have the biggest impact on the team.

Sixth-round pick James Davis ranks fifth in the NFL in preseason rushing yards. Perhaps that doesn’t mean much, but the way Davis is running does. Some scouts who downgraded Davis may have underestimated his speed.

Jerry Butler, a former track star who played in the NFL and has worked in the league for 30 years (currently with the Browns) says Davis is one of the fastest players on the team. Butler says Davis runs the 40 in the 4.3s, and coaches are beginning to appreciate his football speed.

He showed it off on an 81-yard TD run against the Lions. Davis gets to the hole quickly and makes short quick cuts once in the second level. He has enough size and and has shown good toughness.

His pedestrian season at Clemson in 2008 is a puzzle. He has asserted himself as a strong candidate to share the load with veteran workhorse Jamal Lewis and perhaps keep dangerous scatback Jerome Harrison from getting more playing time.

While Davis seems destined for a meaningful regular-season role, it’s not a lock that rookie center Alex Mack will start. Hank Fraley, who has made 48 straight starts at center for the Browns, will turn 32 this month, but he seems to have caught a second wind. The savvy Fraley is the starter for now.

— Steve Doerschuk

 

[jon_mx]

I have been looking to pick up Davis...looks like a great sleeper potential. A very outstanding junior year. Low draft pick after a disappointing senior year mostly because his team sucked. Coaches love his effort. Great speed. Running behind an aging veteran who is obviously past his prime. Perhaps he will not be giving the chance, but he should.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Davis had an 81 yard TD run against the Lions on a play where 2 Lions that won't make the final roster badly missed tackles and 2 others were badly out of position. Other than that play, Davis is averaging about 3.5 yards per carry against mostly backups and players who will be cut. While he looks like he has some talent, I don't think he is nearly as good as the preseason hype says. I think that one play against the Lions skewed his stats and the hype has run away ever since then.

 

[the rover]

Davis had an 81 yard TD run against the Lions on a play where 2 Lions that won't make the final roster badly missed tackles and 2 others were badly out of position. Other than that play, Davis is averaging about 3.5 yards per carry against mostly backups and players who will be cut. While he looks like he has some talent, I don't think he is nearly as good as the preseason hype says. I think that one play against the Lions skewed his stats and the hype has run away ever since then.

this is great information. normally I don't agree with the "if you eliminate the one big play" analysis, but in this situation I think it really is an aberration.

 

[Ice Cream Man]

Davis had an 81 yard TD run against the Lions on a play where 2 Lions that won't make the final roster badly missed tackles and 2 others were badly out of position. Other than that play, Davis is averaging about 3.5 yards per carry against mostly backups and players who will be cut. While he looks like he has some talent, I don't think he is nearly as good as the preseason hype says. I think that one play against the Lions skewed his stats and the hype has run away ever since then.

this is great information. normally I don't agree with the "if you eliminate the one big play" analysis, but in this situation I think it really is an aberration.

I disagree. What about those plays where a defender made one great play or lucky play to stop a huge 20 or 30 yard run from happening, or worse? Shouldn't Davis get extra credit if a defense just made a fluke stop? If one goes about this kind of subjective approach of stats, it has to work both ways.

Unless the poster can state emphatically that all Davis' 3.5 YPC runs were all fairly nondescript, I'll keep considering what Davis has actually done rather than might have done.

Edit: Grammar.

 

[GDogg]

Davis had an 81 yard TD run against the Lions on a play where 2 Lions that won't make the final roster badly missed tackles and 2 others were badly out of position. Other than that play, Davis is averaging about 3.5 yards per carry against mostly backups and players who will be cut. While he looks like he has some talent, I don't think he is nearly as good as the preseason hype says. I think that one play against the Lions skewed his stats and the hype has run away ever since then.

Well, in Game 1, he had 2 rushes for 5 yards with a long of 3 (2.5 ypc). He also has one reception for 6 yards. I don't think this game tells us anything at all.In Game 2, he had 12 carries for 116 yards. This included rushes of 81 and 14 yards, so I do think his final stat line is a little better than how he performed. However, he also had 2 receptions for 11 yards, as well as another reception for 9 yards that was brought back due to penalty. He entered the game at the beginning of the 2nd Quarter and played through most of the 3rd quarter and did not play in the 4th Quarter.In Game 3, he actually played against the Titans' first team. He was in on each of Cleveland's possessions through the beginning of the 4th Quarter (which was the Browns' final possession of the third that carried over to the 4th and he never re-entered the game after that possession). He had 5 rushes for 28 yards (5.6 ypc) and 4 receptions for 27 yards.It seems to me he played against backups and players that would be cut in Game 1. Played against a mix of backups and starters in Game 2 and played primarily against starters in Game 3 (and performed well), which was also against one of the best defenses in the NFL last season (Titans). It also looks to me like he is going to be pretty active in the passing game as he has 7 receptions (and one that was called back) in limited playing time, which would translate to 37+ receptions in the regular season.I'm not sure your characterization is completely spot on with Davis.

 

[GoldenBear]

Davis had an 81 yard TD run against the Lions on a play where 2 Lions that won't make the final roster badly missed tackles and 2 others were badly out of position. Other than that play, Davis is averaging about 3.5 yards per carry against mostly backups and players who will be cut. While he looks like he has some talent, I don't think he is nearly as good as the preseason hype says. I think that one play against the Lions skewed his stats and the hype has run away ever since then.

Well, in Game 1, he had 2 rushes for 5 yards with a long of 3 (2.5 ypc). He also has one reception for 6 yards. I don't think this game tells us anything at all.In Game 2, he had 12 carries for 116 yards. This included rushes of 81 and 14 yards, so I do think his final stat line is a little better than how he performed. However, he also had 2 receptions for 11 yards, as well as another reception for 9 yards that was brought back due to penalty. He entered the game at the beginning of the 2nd Quarter and played through most of the 3rd quarter and did not play in the 4th Quarter.In Game 3, he actually played against the Titans' first team. He was in on each of Cleveland's possessions through the beginning of the 4th Quarter (which was the Browns' final possession of the third that carried over to the 4th and he never re-entered the game after that possession). He had 5 rushes for 28 yards (5.6 ypc) and 4 receptions for 27 yards.It seems to me he played against backups and players that would be cut in Game 1. Played against a mix of backups and starters in Game 2 and played primarily against starters in Game 3 (and performed well), which was also against one of the best defenses in the NFL last season (Titans). It also looks to me like he is going to be pretty active in the passing game as he has 7 receptions (and one that was called back) in limited playing time, which would translate to 37+ receptions in the regular season.I'm not sure your characterization is completely spot on with Davis.

Thanks for the in-depth observations...I was just looking at numbers, but this makes me feel better about my initial assertion.

 

[UnknownCoach]

Regardless of what happens between Davis and Lewis, there is another flaw here.

Oakland and KC could be really good teams by week 15. For all we actually know right now, Cleveland could be throwing 70 percent of the time the second half of the season. Its just too early right now to say how teams are going to be performing 4 months from now. Dont try to project so much. Projections are wrong by the vast majority. You are going to draft this guy because you want to project all of these conditions happening?

1. Lewis will be hurt or benched in weeks 15 and 16.

2. Davis will stay healthy and become "the guy" if number 1 happens.

3. Cleveland will have a decent running attack and be competative in those 2 games 4 months from now.

4. KC wont have a good team and/or will suck at stopping the run 4 months from now.

5. Oakland will suck or at least suck at stopping the run 4 months from now.

That's a lot of dice that have to roll your way when most projections are wrong.

 

[-baller]

Oakland and KC could be really good teams by week 15. For all we actually know right now, Cleveland could be throwing 70 percent of the time the second half of the season. Its just too early right now to say how teams are going to be performing 4 months from now. Dont try to project so much. Projections are wrong by the vast majority. You are going to draft this guy because you want to project all of these conditions happening?

That's a lot of dice that have to roll your way when most projections are wrong.

ps

I <3 borbely and I want the world to know it.

 

[DoubleG]

Regardless of what happens between Davis and Lewis, there is another flaw here.Oakland and KC could be really good teams by week 15. For all we actually know right now, Cleveland could be throwing 70 percent of the time the second half of the season. Its just too early right now to say how teams are going to be performing 4 months from now. Dont try to project so much. Projections are wrong by the vast majority. You are going to draft this guy because you want to project all of these conditions happening?1. Lewis will be hurt or benched in weeks 15 and 16.2. Davis will stay healthy and become "the guy" if number 1 happens.3. Cleveland will have a decent running attack and be competative in those 2 games 4 months from now.4. KC wont have a good team and/or will suck at stopping the run 4 months from now.5. Oakland will suck or at least suck at stopping the run 4 months from now.That's a lot of dice that have to roll your way when most projections are wrong.

I honestly don't think 5 and 6 (at least the parts about them being bad teams) is much of a stretch. I think if #1 happens, #2 is virtually a given (and the fact that Lewis will take the early part of the season beating - when Clevland has some very tough matcups - will work in Davis' favor in terms of Lewis either performing poorly or getting dinged up).But if everyone could stop bumping this thread until sometime after this weekend, it would be appreciated.

 

[JetMaxx]

Davis had an 81 yard TD run against the Lions on a play where 2 Lions that won't make the final roster badly missed tackles and 2 others were badly out of position. Other than that play, Davis is averaging about 3.5 yards per carry against mostly backups and players who will be cut. While he looks like he has some talent, I don't think he is nearly as good as the preseason hype says. I think that one play against the Lions skewed his stats and the hype has run away ever since then.

Hype? Absolutely but how can one expect more out of a backup RB with backup blocking? He took one to the house and he's on a team that needs a young RB to step up. I'll take a chance on him.

 

[GoldenBear]

Regardless of what happens between Davis and Lewis, there is another flaw here.Oakland and KC could be really good teams by week 15. For all we actually know right now, Cleveland could be throwing 70 percent of the time the second half of the season. Its just too early right now to say how teams are going to be performing 4 months from now. Dont try to project so much. Projections are wrong by the vast majority. You are going to draft this guy because you want to project all of these conditions happening?1. Lewis will be hurt or benched in weeks 15 and 16.2. Davis will stay healthy and become "the guy" if number 1 happens.3. Cleveland will have a decent running attack and be competative in those 2 games 4 months from now.4. KC wont have a good team and/or will suck at stopping the run 4 months from now.5. Oakland will suck or at least suck at stopping the run 4 months from now.That's a lot of dice that have to roll your way when most projections are wrong.

I honestly don't think 5 and 6 (at least the parts about them being bad teams) is much of a stretch. I think if #1 happens, #2 is virtually a given (and the fact that Lewis will take the early part of the season beating - when Clevland has some very tough matcups - will work in Davis' favor in terms of Lewis either performing poorly or getting dinged up).But if everyone could stop bumping this thread until sometime after this weekend, it would be appreciated.

I agree with bumping...his performance (and the way the coaches use him) will determine my "sleeper" pick this year (along with Jermaine Jermwhatever the GB TE is...)

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

Davis had an 81 yard TD run against the Lions on a play where 2 Lions that won't make the final roster badly missed tackles and 2 others were badly out of position. Other than that play, Davis is averaging about 3.5 yards per carry against mostly backups and players who will be cut. While he looks like he has some talent, I don't think he is nearly as good as the preseason hype says. I think that one play against the Lions skewed his stats and the hype has run away ever since then.

this is great information. normally I don't agree with the "if you eliminate the one big play" analysis, but in this situation I think it really is an aberration.

I disagree. What about those plays where a defender made one great play or lucky play to stop a huge 20 or 30 yard run from happening, or worse? Shouldn't Davis get extra credit if a defense just made a fluke stop? If one goes about this kind of subjective approach of stats, it has to work both ways.

Unless the poster can state emphatically that all Davis' 3.5 YPC runs were all fairly nondescript, I'll keep considering what Davis has actually done rather than might have done.

Edit: Grammar.

I think he's absolutely right. He had one great run against players who are not NFL-caliber. No matter how bad the defenses are that the Browns will face in playoff weeks, they'll have better talent than those guys. Outside of that, he's averaged 3.5 YPC against guys who will be selling insurance later this year. Some might be NFL-caliber backups, but it's still not an eye-opening number. What Davis has "actually done" is come up with one great run in three games against lesser talent than any running back will face in the regular season. He's earned a lot of praise from coaches...mainly for his special teams enthusiasm. Doesn't sound like the next big thing to me. I'm sure he's safely stashed away in dynasty, but you'd better have awfully deep redraft benches to use one on Cleveland's rookie backup who hasn't proven too much against first-teamers.

 

[Tanner9919]

Regardless of what happens between Davis and Lewis, there is another flaw here.Oakland and KC could be really good teams by week 15. For all we actually know right now, Cleveland could be throwing 70 percent of the time the second half of the season. Its just too early right now to say how teams are going to be performing 4 months from now. Dont try to project so much. Projections are wrong by the vast majority. You are going to draft this guy because you want to project all of these conditions happening?1. Lewis will be hurt or benched in weeks 15 and 16.2. Davis will stay healthy and become "the guy" if number 1 happens.3. Cleveland will have a decent running attack and be competative in those 2 games 4 months from now.4. KC wont have a good team and/or will suck at stopping the run 4 months from now.5. Oakland will suck or at least suck at stopping the run 4 months from now.That's a lot of dice that have to roll your way when most projections are wrong.

for my money, I'll take LJ vs. Browns in week 15, and Bengals week 16, over Davis any day of the week.I'll also take McFadden over Davis in week 16..the Browns just aren't that good..they're yet another 4-12 team waiting to happen...Chiefs defense is going to be improved over last year's edition, so by week 15,there is no guarantee that Kc will be a doormat for opposing RB's..while KC starts out with a very tough schedule, they face one of the easiest final 8 weeks of the season!

 

[zamboni]

One thing to remember is that this is Mangini's team now. He brought in Davis and inherited Lewis. Granted, Lewis has the track record and will be given a chance to remain the bell cow, but if he doesn't perform, there doesn't seem to be much loyalty abound for the vet.

 

[faulkfan]

Regardless of what happens between Davis and Lewis, there is another flaw here.Oakland and KC could be really good teams by week 15. For all we actually know right now, Cleveland could be throwing 70 percent of the time the second half of the season. Its just too early right now to say how teams are going to be performing 4 months from now. Dont try to project so much. Projections are wrong by the vast majority. You are going to draft this guy because you want to project all of these conditions happening?1. Lewis will be hurt or benched in weeks 15 and 16.2. Davis will stay healthy and become "the guy" if number 1 happens.3. Cleveland will have a decent running attack and be competative in those 2 games 4 months from now.4. KC wont have a good team and/or will suck at stopping the run 4 months from now.5. Oakland will suck or at least suck at stopping the run 4 months from now.That's a lot of dice that have to roll your way when most projections are wrong.

for my money, I'll take LJ vs. Browns in week 15, and Bengals week 16, over Davis any day of the week.I'll also take McFadden over Davis in week 16..the Browns just aren't that good..they're yet another 4-12 team waiting to happen...Chiefs defense is going to be improved over last year's edition, so by week 15,there is no guarantee that Kc will be a doormat for opposing RB's..while KC starts out with a very tough schedule, they face one of the easiest final 8 weeks of the season!

This isn't really a fair comparison since you'll have to invest a much earlier draft pick to get LJ hoping that he and the atrocious KC O Line are working well 4 months from now. It is still a gamble only you have a higher investment. I'm not afraind to spend a late middle round pick on Davis. That is why they call them sleepers, because there is a risk/reward component to taking them, but there is definite potential for reward.

 

[baconisgood]

I would be a little cautious with Davis. Jerome Harrison is slated to be the 3rd down back still which means he will be getting touches- and as anyone who has watched the Browns the past few years knows he is productive when he is given the chance. If he doesn't look good in the last preseason game that might alleviate fears, but Harrison is still going to get the earlier look against real defenses in real games.

 

[JohnnyU]

I would be a little cautious with Davis. Jerome Harrison is slated to be the 3rd down back still which means he will be getting touches- and as anyone who has watched the Browns the past few years knows he is productive when he is given the chance. If he doesn't look good in the last preseason game that might alleviate fears, but Harrison is still going to get the earlier look against real defenses in real games.

If Lewis was out of the picture, Davis would get the early downs and Harrison some 3rd down work, but not every 3rd down.

 

[baconisgood]

I would be a little cautious with Davis. Jerome Harrison is slated to be the 3rd down back still which means he will be getting touches- and as anyone who has watched the Browns the past few years knows he is productive when he is given the chance. If he doesn't look good in the last preseason game that might alleviate fears, but Harrison is still going to get the earlier look against real defenses in real games.

If Lewis was out of the picture, Davis would get the early downs and Harrison some 3rd down work, but not every 3rd down.

Thats the assumption now- but lewis won't be out of the picture until after he plays in a few regular season games. At that point if Harrison is doing his typical 6+ yards a carry and 8+ yards a receptions he will make a strong case for increasing his workload.

 

[Chubbs]

Question: Is James Davis a "Sleeper" Pick?

Answer: HELL YES!

Pre-season doesn't mean alot, I understand, but it shows something.

I believe that Davis is worth a late round pick for sure. Every team is moving to a 2-back system, so does everyone feel that Mangini will run Lewis 30+ carries per game. Of course not, so its reasonable to believe that James Davis may get 5-10 carries per game to start with Lewis getting 10-17, and Harrison getting some 3rd & longs.

Now the HUGE upside is if Lewis is unimpressive and Davis shows more, the script will flip, and Davis will be gettibg at least 15 carries per game. That is BIG for a player you drafted in the 12th round to be your RB#5.

 

[Mene]

Comparing Davis to L.J. and McFadden is kinda silly. Those are guys that take picks in the 4 - 7 range, where unless this Davis hype really takes off... he's a pick at the end of your draft.

I see potential here, not because of his preseason numbers, but because of the situation. J. Lewis, by many accounts, looks slow and timid this year. He's been on the decline for a while now, who's to say this isn't the year he fall's off completely. Should that happen, Davis is more built for a early down back than Harrison. Davis has wow'd coaches so far this summer, and it sounds like he's going to get some opportunity no matter what. Should he take on the starting RB role, he's immense value, considering what you paid to get him. Yes.. even if it's the starting RB for a horrible Cleveland team. Starting RB's in the 13th - 16th round are great value, no matter who they play for.

 

[grouse]

Davis had an 81 yard TD run against the Lions on a play where 2 Lions that won't make the final roster badly missed tackles and 2 others were badly out of position. Other than that play, Davis is averaging about 3.5 yards per carry against mostly backups and players who will be cut. While he looks like he has some talent, I don't think he is nearly as good as the preseason hype says. I think that one play against the Lions skewed his stats and the hype has run away ever since then.

this is great information. normally I don't agree with the "if you eliminate the one big play" analysis, but in this situation I think it really is an aberration.

re: "if you eliminate the one big play"Question: When was the last time Jamal Lewis made "one big play"?

 

[joffer]

Davis had an 81 yard TD run against the Lions on a play where 2 Lions that won't make the final roster badly missed tackles and 2 others were badly out of position. Other than that play, Davis is averaging about 3.5 yards per carry against mostly backups and players who will be cut. While he looks like he has some talent, I don't think he is nearly as good as the preseason hype says. I think that one play against the Lions skewed his stats and the hype has run away ever since then.

this is great information. normally I don't agree with the "if you eliminate the one big play" analysis, but in this situation I think it really is an aberration.

re: "if you eliminate the one big play"Question: When was the last time Jamal Lewis made "one big play"?

pretty good point there

 

[Birdie048]

Davis had an 81 yard TD run against the Lions on a play where 2 Lions that won't make the final roster badly missed tackles and 2 others were badly out of position. Other than that play, Davis is averaging about 3.5 yards per carry against mostly backups and players who will be cut. While he looks like he has some talent, I don't think he is nearly as good as the preseason hype says. I think that one play against the Lions skewed his stats and the hype has run away ever since then.

Hype? Absolutely but how can one expect more out of a backup RB with backup blocking? He took one to the house and he's on a team that needs a young RB to step up. I'll take a chance on him.

I saw a fair amount of Davis play at Clemson. He did not show much ability and was often missing the holes the OL could open (even if only momentarily). He was marginal as a college RB. The fact he went so late in the draft by teams that are professional at this business does alot. Bringing up the likes of Terrel Davis as a 6th round RB would have more weight if he did it today with all the media/information overload available. Besides, TD had a crackblocking OL opening the holes for him to dance thru. But back to James Davis. What do his "between the tackles" runs look like? 2 yards and a puff of dirt? Not much from what I saw out of him... even vs the 2nd string Def. Detroit is more of a Div II Defense. They could make Rod "He Hate Me" Smart a star of pre-season. I enjoy letting others drink the "tainted James Davis koolaide" and looking forward to watching them wither later.

 

[zadok]

I saw a fair amount of Davis play at Clemson. He did not show much ability and was often missing the holes the OL could open (even if only momentarily). He was marginal as a college RB.

I watched him a fair amount too and I have the exact opposite opinion...Season TEAM G ATT YDS TDS 2005-06 Clemson 11 165 879 9 (5.3 avg)2006-07 Clemson 13 203 1187 17 (5.8 avg)2007-08 Clemson 13 214 1064 10 (5.0 avg)2008-09 Clemson 13 171 751 11 (4.4 avg)Seems like the only hiccup was last year being misused in the scheme and splitting time with CJ Spiller.

But back to James Davis. What do his "between the tackles" runs look like? 2 yards and a puff of dirt? Not much from what I saw out of him... even vs the 2nd string Def. Detroit is more of a Div II Defense. They could make Rod "He Hate Me" Smart a star of pre-season.

He did very well against the Titans D...Rotowold is calling for him to displace Lewis by week 4 at the latest...

 

[GoldenBear]

Davis had an 81 yard TD run against the Lions on a play where 2 Lions that won't make the final roster badly missed tackles and 2 others were badly out of position. Other than that play, Davis is averaging about 3.5 yards per carry against mostly backups and players who will be cut. While he looks like he has some talent, I don't think he is nearly as good as the preseason hype says. I think that one play against the Lions skewed his stats and the hype has run away ever since then.

Hype? Absolutely but how can one expect more out of a backup RB with backup blocking? He took one to the house and he's on a team that needs a young RB to step up. I'll take a chance on him.

I saw a fair amount of Davis play at Clemson. He did not show much ability and was often missing the holes the OL could open (even if only momentarily). He was marginal as a college RB. The fact he went so late in the draft by teams that are professional at this business does alot. Bringing up the likes of Terrel Davis as a 6th round RB would have more weight if he did it today with all the media/information overload available. Besides, TD had a crackblocking OL opening the holes for him to dance thru. But back to James Davis. What do his "between the tackles" runs look like? 2 yards and a puff of dirt? Not much from what I saw out of him... even vs the 2nd string Def. Detroit is more of a Div II Defense. They could make Rod "He Hate Me" Smart a star of pre-season.

I enjoy letting others drink the "tainted James Davis koolaide" and looking forward to watching them wither later.

Your assertion that NFL scouts are somehow omniscient regarding player potential is easily refuted...in fact, here are some players whose value was so low they weren't drafted at allriest Homes

Kurt Warner

Adam Vinatierri

Jake Delhoome

Wayne Chrebet

Antonio Gates

 

[jon_mx]

I saw a fair amount of Davis play at Clemson. He did not show much ability and was often missing the holes the OL could open (even if only momentarily). He was marginal as a college RB.

Ran for 3881 yards, 47 TDs while averaging over 5 yards per carry. I think he went late because Clemson blew chunks his senior year and that ended up being his worst year. His sophmore and junior years were very solid.

 

[daveR]

Seriously, don't bother. He isn't an exceptional player. He is third string right now on a poor team. He won't make a serious contribution in '09. He might have a future in the NFL. If you have a roster spot to devote to 2010-2011, maybe. Consider: Right now, he is not as good as J Lewis.

 

[Gr00vus]

Seriously, don't bother. He isn't an exceptional player. He is third string right now on a poor team. He won't make a serious contribution in '09. He might have a future in the NFL. If you have a roster spot to devote to 2010-2011, maybe. Consider: Right now, he is not as good as J Lewis.

Is this an H.K. alias?

 

[Eph]

I drafted Beanie Wells (late). Davis is available on my waiver. Would you drop Wells and pick up Davis at this point?

 

[GoldenBear]

I drafted Beanie Wells (late). Davis is available on my waiver. Would you drop Wells and pick up Davis at this point?

Nope...Wells is in a similar situation with Hightower, who averaged a lousy 2.9 yds/carry last year...after last preseason game, Wells is looking like a good pick if he can stay healthy.

 

[smackdaddies]

I drafted Beanie Wells (late). Davis is available on my waiver. Would you drop Wells and pick up Davis at this point?

I took M Bush and have the same question.I think at this point it is hard to say who you should cut to pick up Davis. It's really unknown what his production will be. If I had a second K or D I would in a minute, but unless you did something goofy by accident in your draft, i think he still is only in the 50ish range of all RB.As you your question, I would keep Beanie (as much as I think he sucks - why yes, I did take Hightower)

 

[daveR]

Seriously, don't bother. He isn't an exceptional player. He is third string right now on a poor team. He won't make a serious contribution in '09. He might have a future in the NFL. If you have a roster spot to devote to 2010-2011, maybe. Consider: Right now, he is not as good as J Lewis.

Is this an H.K. alias?

Nope. Just a Browns homer reporting what I think.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

I drafted Beanie Wells (late). Davis is available on my waiver. Would you drop Wells and pick up Davis at this point?

Absolutely not - Wells is in the same position as Davis, except that 1) Wells is better, 2) Cardinals are better, 3) Hightower is not as good as Lewis, despite Lewis slowing down.

 

[Eph]

I drafted Beanie Wells (late). Davis is available on my waiver. Would you drop Wells and pick up Davis at this point?

Absolutely not - Wells is in the same position as Davis, except that 1) Wells is better, 2) Cardinals are better, 3) Hightower is not as good as Lewis, despite Lewis slowing down.

Thanks guys!

 

[nxmehta]

This thread is bizarre. Has anyone actually paid attention to the Browns when trying to evaluate James Davis' situation?

1. Historically, 2nd to 3rd string RBs have gotten a decent amount of carries and yards in Cleveland during the preseason but have barely been used during the regular season. So this sort of performance has been seen before. See Harrison, Jerome.

2. Coach Mangini has stated in press conferences, almost *every single time* that Davis' name has come up, that if Davis wants to *make the team* he needs to find a spot on special teams. This is not just coachspeak- he's making it clear that it's still up in the air whether or not Davis will be a Brown. This does not sound like someone who's primed for a breakout year this year.

3. Jerome Harrison has been injured the entire preseason, is a very similar back to Davis, is technically the #2 behind Lewis, and is a back that Mangini has said on multiple occasions that he likes and wants to get involved in the offense. At best Davis will compete with Harrison for playing time, at worst Harrison will be the undisputed #2 back. Harrison is also a better blocker than Davis thus far in their careers, and that means a lot to a guy like Mangini.

4. This is the CLEVELAND BROWNS running game we're talking about here.

So no, I wouldn't expect anything of fantasy value out of Davis this year. Maybe next year, but we'll see.

 

[davearm]

Seriously, don't bother. He isn't an exceptional player. He is third string right now on a poor team. He won't make a serious contribution in '09. He might have a future in the NFL. If you have a roster spot to devote to 2010-2011, maybe. Consider: Right now, he is not as good as J Lewis.

Personally I think this could be the year we see Lewis fall off the map, a la Shaun Alexander. The dude's big, old, slow, coming off a lousy year, and has a lot of miles on those legs.Say what you will about Davis' talent, but he's the guy that's going to play if Lewis collapses. It doesn't hurt that Davis seems to be turning some heads in camp.

IMO the main question here is how long Mangini will stick with an ineffective Lewis. Could be all year (like the last staff did in 2008 when there were no better options), but I'm betting not.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

Davis had an 81 yard TD run against the Lions on a play where 2 Lions that won't make the final roster badly missed tackles

Stafford's TD pass was over a practice squad DB who got smoked at the LOS

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Davis had an 81 yard TD run against the Lions on a play where 2 Lions that won't make the final roster badly missed tackles and 2 others were badly out of position. Other than that play, Davis is averaging about 3.5 yards per carry against mostly backups and players who will be cut. While he looks like he has some talent, I don't think he is nearly as good as the preseason hype says. I think that one play against the Lions skewed his stats and the hype has run away ever since then.

this is great information. normally I don't agree with the "if you eliminate the one big play" analysis, but in this situation I think it really is an aberration.

re: "if you eliminate the one big play"Question: When was the last time Jamal Lewis made "one big play"?

When was the last time Jamal played against 3rd/4th stringers? My original post has nothing to do with situation. It has to do with a player getting hyped mainly because of his stats that show him averaging about 7 yards per carry, and mostly against 3rd and 4trh stringers. I usually don't use the "throw one play out" thing, but the play he went for 81 yards was because of terrible tackling and positioning by players who will likely be on the waiver wire or are already on waivers. Also, for those who don't like to throw out one play, you also can't throw out the rest of his plays when he has averaged about 3.5 ypc.

My main point is when you see a player hyped because of preseason, look deeper into it. I saw him play against the Lions and the only thing that impressed me was his long speed on the 81 yard run. He really didn't do much else. There were some flashes here and there, but nothing to the level of the hype I have seen.

I basically would not waste a redraft pick on him. I don't think his talent is anything special, although there is some ability. But the other important reason is backup RBs on teams with a poor offense are unlikely to make enough of an impact to make them draftable, with the possible exception being if you are a Jamal owner.

 

[GDogg]

Davis had an 81 yard TD run against the Lions on a play where 2 Lions that won't make the final roster badly missed tackles and 2 others were badly out of position. Other than that play, Davis is averaging about 3.5 yards per carry against mostly backups and players who will be cut. While he looks like he has some talent, I don't think he is nearly as good as the preseason hype says. I think that one play against the Lions skewed his stats and the hype has run away ever since then.

this is great information. normally I don't agree with the "if you eliminate the one big play" analysis, but in this situation I think it really is an aberration.

re: "if you eliminate the one big play"Question: When was the last time Jamal Lewis made "one big play"?

When was the last time Jamal played against 3rd/4th stringers? My original post has nothing to do with situation. It has to do with a player getting hyped mainly because of his stats that show him averaging about 7 yards per carry, and mostly against 3rd and 4trh stringers. I usually don't use the "throw one play out" thing, but the play he went for 81 yards was because of terrible tackling and positioning by players who will likely be on the waiver wire or are already on waivers. Also, for those who don't like to throw out one play, you also can't throw out the rest of his plays when he has averaged about 3.5 ypc.

My main point is when you see a player hyped because of preseason, look deeper into it. I saw him play against the Lions and the only thing that impressed me was his long speed on the 81 yard run. He really didn't do much else. There were some flashes here and there, but nothing to the level of the hype I have seen.

I basically would not waste a redraft pick on him. I don't think his talent is anything special, although there is some ability. But the other important reason is backup RBs on teams with a poor offense are unlikely to make enough of an impact to make them draftable, with the possible exception being if you are a Jamal owner.

It doesn't seem like you are looking deeper into it, though. You keep saying he played mostly against 3rd and 4th stringers. I posted above that he's been playing against first stringers. He came in against Detroit in the 2nd Quarter. On each of his touches, respectively, he was tackled by:

Ernie Sims (1st Stringer)

Larry Foote (1st Stringer)

Kalvin Pearson/Ernie Sims (both 1st Stringers)

Larry Foote (1st Stringer)

Shaun Smith (2nd Stringer)

Ramzee Robinson (3rd Stringer)

Ramzee Robinson (3rd Stringer)

Andre Fluellen (2nd Stringer)

Hicks (Cut?)

Chuck Darby (1st Stringer)

Jordon Dizon (3rd Stringer)

Jordon Dizon (3rd Stringer)

Dizon/Fluellen (2nd/3rds)

So, he was tackled by 1st stringers on 5 touches and 3rd stringers on 4.5 touches.

Against Tennessee, he was tackled by:

Keith Bullock/David Thornton (1st Stringers)

Chris Hope (1st Stringer)

David Thornton/Amano (1st Stringer/?)

David Thornton/Jason McCourtney (1st Stringer/Other)

DeMarcus Faggins (2nd Stringer)

LaJuan Ramsey (3rd Stringer)

Gerald McGrath (3rd Stringer)

Nick Schommer (3rd Stringer)

So, he was playing against 1st stringers on 4 touches and 3rd stringers on 3 touches.

The last two games total, he's been tackled by 1st stringers on 9 touches and 3rd stringers on 7.5 touches. That's hardly "mostly against 3rd and 4th stringers."

And, when was the last time Jamal Lewis played against 3rd and 4th stringers? How about in his last game played, which was the last preseason game against the Titans when he was tackled by Titans' 3rd Stringer, Stanford Keglar, in the 3rd Quarter? Or, later in that game, when he was tackled by Titans' 3rd Stringer, Gerald McGrath?

 

[War Eagle]

This thread is bizarre. Has anyone actually paid attention to the Browns when trying to evaluate James Davis' situation?

1. Historically, 2nd to 3rd string RBs have gotten a decent amount of carries and yards in Cleveland during the preseason but have barely been used during the regular season. So this sort of performance has been seen before. See Harrison, Jerome.

2. Coach Mangini has stated in press conferences, almost *every single time* that Davis' name has come up, that if Davis wants to *make the team* he needs to find a spot on special teams. This is not just coachspeak- he's making it clear that it's still up in the air whether or not Davis will be a Brown. This does not sound like someone who's primed for a breakout year this year.

3. Jerome Harrison has been injured the entire preseason, is a very similar back to Davis, is technically the #2 behind Lewis, and is a back that Mangini has said on multiple occasions that he likes and wants to get involved in the offense. At best Davis will compete with Harrison for playing time, at worst Harrison will be the undisputed #2 back. Harrison is also a better blocker than Davis thus far in their careers, and that means a lot to a guy like Mangini.

4. This is the CLEVELAND BROWNS running game we're talking about here.

So no, I wouldn't expect anything of fantasy value out of Davis this year. Maybe next year, but we'll see.

SHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

 

[Koya]

2. Coach Mangini has stated in press conferences, almost *every single time* that Davis' name has come up, that if Davis wants to *make the team* he needs to find a spot on special teams. This is not just coachspeak- he's making it clear that it's still up in the air whether or not Davis will be a Brown. This does not sound like someone who's primed for a breakout year this year.

So no, I wouldn't expect anything of fantasy value out of Davis this year. Maybe next year, but we'll see.

You are lambasting people for not watching the Browns, but do you watch Mangini? There is not a word out of his mouth that is not coachspeak. Don't believe anything you hear from him. Hell, if he keeps saying this, my guess is its purposeful misinformation and/or (yes, literally) an attempt to motivate the guy because Davis likely already has a position on the team locked up but Mangini wishes to play his stupid games.Just my opinion, but after watching him a couple years in NY, to hear Mangini and not coachspeak in the same sentence just ain't right.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

3. Jerome Harrison has been injured the entire preseason, is a very similar back to Davis, is technically the #2 behind Lewis, and is a back that Mangini has said on multiple occasions that he likes and wants to get involved in the offense. At best Davis will compete with Harrison for playing time, at worst Harrison will be the undisputed #2 back. Harrison is also a better blocker than Davis thus far in their careers, and that means a lot to a guy like Mangini.

This is bizarre. Harrison has had 77 carries in 3 years! How does that make him the undisputed #2? Harrison is a better blocker? Really? So, Harrison can block, catch, and run at almost 6 ypc. Just what is keeping him off the field?

 

[Maven]

I wasn't a believer but I think its James Davis' time to shine folks...From FO on JAMAL LEWIS

About 44 percent of all rushing plays are stopped for a gain of two yards are less; Lewis’ average last season was 48.4 percent. That wouldn’t be a major problem if Lewis pushed a few 11- to 20-yard runs into the 21- to 30-yard category, or maybe the 30-plus category, which Lewis failed to crack. With no big play capability, Lewis has become a plowhorse, and while this sort of back is usually effective on the goal line, Lewis contributed four touchdowns on 18 carries inside the five last year, when the average back would’ve scored 8.14 times. Couple that with Lewis’ minor knee surgery in April and his 30th birthday party in August, and you have a recipe for a massive production tailspin.

wowwwwwwww...interesting stuff. Draft Davis folks not Jlewis

 

[the rover]

After rereading this thread, I'm still going to stay away from this whole team's running game.

 

[Steed]

Rotoworld blew the lid off this guy being a sleeper today, and other sites also have recommended drafting Davis over Lewis. The jig is up. On to other sleepers.

 

[nola]

About 5 years back, Justin Fargas had an amazing rookie preseason. All he had in front of him was Tyrone Wheatley.

Fargas never did anything.

Davis might get an opportunity. Nothing wrong with taking a REASONABLE flyer. But don't draft him as though he is a lock to start.

Everyone wants to "discover" the next great rookie RB, especially in keeper leagues. But more often than not, Michael Robinson, Lorenzo Booker, Wali Lundy, etc. are just, well, Michael Robinson, Lorenzo Booker, Wali Lundy, etc...

 

[Jewell]

Davis ran well again tonight versus the Bears (5 for 37, 7.4 avg). While impressive, the fact that Davis carried the ball in the Browns final preseason game and Lewis and Harrison did not leads me to believe that the latter two are being rested for the season opener. Davis might eventually supplant Lewis during the season, but Lewis will be starting that first game. It doesn't seem likely that Lewis will get cut.

With that being said, I've heard that Sammy Morris may get cut in New England, LaMont Jordan may get cut in Denver, and TJ Duckett was already cut in Seattle. If I were the Browns GM, I'd consider cutting Lewis this year and bringing in one of those guys at a lesser salary to run behind Davis and Harrison. The Browns are not going to be competitive this year anyway. Might as well get the younger talent ready for the future, and save a few bucks while doing it.