Jabar Gaffney (1 Viewer)

[Kitrick Taylor]

Here are the last 5 games for Gaffney:

7/69/2

14/213/0

3/34/1

2/15/0

12/140/0

That totals 38/471/3. Projected over a full slate of 16?

121/1507/10

Obviously Gaffney won't be posting those numbers this year, and I am not recommending trading Randy Moss for him. However, I am starting to think that Gaffney may very well put up respectable WR2 numbers this year. His numbers so far this year project to 90/1008/5. I don't think he'll hit the 90 reception mark, but I do think the 1000/5 numbers may be realistic for him.

I watched the Bronco game this weekend vs the Colts. I didn't think Maroney looked good at all. Same with Buckhalter. Moreno has two bad hamstrings, and was averaging 2.8 yards a carry before hurting the second one. Orton meanwhile, seems to be in command of this offense, and shockingly enough looking downfield more than I can ever remember. The Broncos don't have a viable pass catching TE at this point, so most of the yards are going to come from the WRs. There does appear to be pretty stiff competition among the WRs for targets, but Demaryius Thomas is still learning the playbook and how to play WR. So I think the majority of passing yardage is going to go to Royal/Gaffney/Lloyd. All three could be viable fantasy 2/3 WRs from here on out.

Thoughts?

 

[HoTnickZ]

I think you maybe talking yourself into it a bit (2 of the games he had 2, and 3 catches). I think it will be tough to predict when he will have a good game in that offense. One week it could be Lloyd, next Royal, then Gaffney, or Thomas and so on. In PPR, he's worth a shot, and maybe as a bye week fill in but he could just as well be a dud in any given week.

 

[David Yudkin]

Stick with this year.

3/34/1

2/15/0

12/140/0

That projects to 90/1008/5. That's Wes Welker lite territory and seems a lot more realistic numbers wise.

 

[David Yudkin]

The other thing is that the Broncos are on pace to heave up 667 passing attempts this year. I doubt they will air it out quite that much.

 

[CalBear]

Gaffney is mediocre; Royal is clearly better than he is, Thomas is likely to earn a starting role if he gets healthy, and Lloyd is also out there to steal touches. Denver is currently #3 in the league in pass attempts; do you think they'll stay there with Kyle Orton at QB?

This is Gaffney's ninth year in the league, on three different teams. He has yet to catch 60 balls, 750 yards, or 6 TDs. I'll take 8 years of data over 5 games.

No thanks.

 

[Kwai Chang Caine]

Well, I canned MSW for him. I feel pretty good about that. He's gonna be my WR2 it looks like.

 

[rizzler]

Gaffney is mediocre; Royal is clearly better than he is, Thomas is likely to earn a starting role if he gets healthy, and Lloyd is also out there to steal touches. Denver is currently #3 in the league in pass attempts; do you think they'll stay there with Kyle Orton at QB? This is Gaffney's ninth year in the league, on three different teams. He has yet to catch 60 balls, 750 yards, or 6 TDs. I'll take 8 years of data over 5 games. No thanks.

There's always that one freak season that some of the mediocre players sometimes get... and this seems to be it. Just my opinion

 

[footballnerd]

Lotta mouths to feed in Den

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Gaffney is mediocre; Royal is clearly better than he is, Thomas is likely to earn a starting role if he gets healthy, and Lloyd is also out there to steal touches. Denver is currently #3 in the league in pass attempts; do you think they'll stay there with Kyle Orton at QB?

This is Gaffney's ninth year in the league, on three different teams. He has yet to catch 60 balls, 750 yards, or 6 TDs. I'll take 8 years of data over 5 games.

No thanks.

How can you be so sure?

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

I think you maybe talking yourself into it a bit (2 of the games he had 2, and 3 catches). I think it will be tough to predict when he will have a good game in that offense. One week it could be Lloyd, next Royal, then Gaffney, or Thomas and so on. In PPR, he's worth a shot, and maybe as a bye week fill in but he could just as well be a dud in any given week.

If you look at even the high end WR2s from 2009 there are plenty of dud weeks there. Colston was WR13 in my league and had 7 relative duds. Meachem was WR21 and had 11 duds. Even Mr consistent Donald Driver who finished WR19 had 9 duds. (I am using 7 fantasy points or less as a dud week for this. 1pt per 10 yards receiving and no ppr)

 

[CalBear]

Gaffney is mediocre; Royal is clearly better than he is, Thomas is likely to earn a starting role if he gets healthy, and Lloyd is also out there to steal touches. Denver is currently #3 in the league in pass attempts; do you think they'll stay there with Kyle Orton at QB?

This is Gaffney's ninth year in the league, on three different teams. He has yet to catch 60 balls, 750 yards, or 6 TDs. I'll take 8 years of data over 5 games.

No thanks.

How can you be so sure?

As a rookie, Royal had a season better than any Gaffney has had in his 8+ year career. The prima facie evidence is that Royal is better. What evidence is there that Gaffney is better? I'll even let you write off the David Carr/Houston years (where he failed to outperform Corey Bradford, despite being given the starting role). Why did he suck in New England with Tom Brady throwing him the ball? Wes Welker came to New England the same time Gaffney did, having started a total of 3 games in his career, and he immediately put Gaffney on the bench and kept him there. Heck, two out of three seasons Kevin Faulk had more receiving yards and receiving TDs than Gaffney.

 

[David Yudkin]

What evidence is there that Gaffney is better?

I don't necessarily think Gaffney is better, but looking at the most recent data and circumstances (Orton and McDaniels) from 09 and 10:Gaffney 19 games, 71-921-3Royal 17 games, 54-531-1And at this point, Lloyd has almost as many receiving yards (456) as Royal and has only played 5 games.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Gaffney is mediocre; Royal is clearly better than he is, Thomas is likely to earn a starting role if he gets healthy, and Lloyd is also out there to steal touches. Denver is currently #3 in the league in pass attempts; do you think they'll stay there with Kyle Orton at QB?

I think they have a chance with mcdaniels as coach --- you say kyle orton like he's jamarcus russell a couple days after he threw for 476 yds, which has been seen only 20 other times in the last 50 yrs.in the first year of the mcdaniel/orton regime they ranked 9th in pass attempts at 558 with the 3rd ranked team at 594 --- and last year they probably had a stronger running game and defense, at least through the first half.

the ten games after their bye they were giving up about 26 ppg and were on track for 582 pass attempts over 16 games (36 att/game), or just 12 shy of that 594 figure.

this is in their first year, with dumervil, and a healthier rb.

if they manage to clock that 36 att/game figure over the rest of the season they'll be looking at 600 attempts this year.

 

[nyy45]

Gaffney is mediocre; Royal is clearly better than he is, Thomas is likely to earn a starting role if he gets healthy, and Lloyd is also out there to steal touches. Denver is currently #3 in the league in pass attempts; do you think they'll stay there with Kyle Orton at QB?

This is Gaffney's ninth year in the league, on three different teams. He has yet to catch 60 balls, 750 yards, or 6 TDs. I'll take 8 years of data over 5 games.

No thanks.

How can you be so sure?

What evidence is there that Gaffney is better?

Better, ehhh. I wouldn't say that. But more productive? Absolutely, and there's a lot of evidence to prove it. Not even a lot, just 2-3 pretty obvious influences that affect performance for a WR: 1) Coach, 2) QB. All you really need to know. The guy calling the plays and the one throwing the ball. Yea, Royal had a great rookie year and I was high on him beginning of last year and I did not put enough emphasis on these 2 defining factors. Just look at Royal's numbers (I like to look at game log) his rookie year with Cutler and Shanahan, oh and not to mention the guy defenses were focusing in on, Brandon Marshall. Other WRs on your team is the 3rd factor affecting performance and realizing potential. Somebody mentioned Gaffney's last 5 games earlier in this thread and those were without Brandon Marshall (that week 17 peformance, marshall was sidelined). It's pretty clear that McDaniels likes Gaffney on the field and Orton trusts him enough to get him the ball.

 

[CaptainHook]

he has less than 1/5 of ortons yards so far even though he just had what will be his best week of the season. if u think orton will throw for 5k maybe hell be good.

 

[nyy45]

he has less than 1/5 of ortons yards so far even though he just had what will be his best week of the season. if u think orton will throw for 5k maybe hell be good.

i dont think anybody expects orton to throw for 5,000 but can you please explain why gaffney can't be productive if orton hits 4,000 (he had 3,800 last year). I try and be a lil more analytic than just using the first 3 games of the season to project out the last 13. Or use a player's rookie year to project out his following year without considering external factors (Eddie Royal, as I explained above).I think that was a great stat but just for the sake of the board, can you expand on that statement.

 

[menobrown]

Own Gaffney and Demaryius Thomas in the same league in two different leagues. I've started the wrong guy the last two weeks. Going forward I can't decide which one to start, to start neither, or roll with both. I'd feel the same way if I owned Royal and Lloyd or any combo of the 4.

It's hard for me to get to excited about any of them because all of them are WDIS hell. Leagues I own them are no trade leagues or I'd be trying to deal them both and rid myself of the entire Bronco receiving corp.

 

[Gopher State]

Royal=Hawk move

 

[THE SNOWMAN]

Royal=Hawk move

Too late for most of us, especially in those leagues that drafted him.

 

[Otis]

Royal=Hawk move

 

[dagwood]

Stick with this year.3/34/12/15/012/140/0That projects to 90/1008/5. That's Wes Welker lite territory and seems a lot more realistic numbers wise.

2 poor games and one very good game.And the very good game, Orton threw the ball 57 times

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Stick with this year.3/34/12/15/012/140/0That projects to 90/1008/5. That's Wes Welker lite territory and seems a lot more realistic numbers wise.

2 poor games and one very good game.And the very good game, Orton threw the ball 57 times

and one of the 'poor' games got him a td, and if you knock the 57 down to a more typical 36 then apply that to his 'good' game it becomes something like 8/88 proportionally, which is not what I'd call 'poor'.of course, if we project andre johnson off his last game he's 64/1000/0 for the year.let me edit in a question for you ---- he finishes the year 50/500/16, is that a good year or a poor year?

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

he has less than 1/5 of ortons yards so far even though he just had what will be his best week of the season. if u think orton will throw for 5k maybe hell be good.

i dont think anybody expects orton to throw for 5,000 but can you please explain why gaffney can't be productive if orton hits 4,000 (he had 3,800 last year). I try and be a lil more analytic than just using the first 3 games of the season to project out the last 13. Or use a player's rookie year to project out his following year without considering external factors (Eddie Royal, as I explained above).I think that was a great stat but just for the sake of the board, can you expand on that statement.

I just think some people can't see outside of the box. i.e Gaffney has always been below average, so he always will be. This week was a fluke, as was week 17.etc. What they don't see is what you suggest. Orton seems to trust him. McDaniels does too. Its the best situation Gaffney has been in for his whole career. He had David Carr getting sacked every other drop back on Houston's pathetic offense for four seasons. Then he got lost behind Moss and Welker in NE. I'm not trying to say Gaffney is the greatest thing since sliced bread. Just that there are a lot of things aligned for him to have a good season.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

On draft day, I really coveted Gaffney. There was a lot of FBG sleeper hype around this guy all preseason. I tried to target him, but he went just a little ahead of me in my drafts. I thought, "oh well, the secret is out". We all congratulated the guy who picked him, "good pick".

Then that guy goes 0-2 and last week dumps him in a panic move.

He is sitting on my wire, and I still have about 60 percent of my blind bid stash, but can easily be outbid tonight. I'd love to add him, since he has all the things in his favor, (head coach loves him. check, little veteran competition, check. knows McDaniels system, check)

If I somehow get him, he'd be a very nice WR3 going forward.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I'm not going to make the case that gaffney's some great wr, but rather I hope he's a solid flex/bye guy.

anyway, in that context, let me just post a few numbers for reference.....

you guys can make what you want of the houston years.

pats 2007 (brady/mcdaniels) as '#3' wr, sharing time with stallworth

wk1 - 37 snaps (1/5/0)

wk2 - 6

wk3 - 27 (2/15/1)

wk4 - 12

wk5 - 10

wk6 - 10

wk7 - 26 (1/12/0)

wk8 - 33 (4/39/0)

wk9 - 21

wk11 - 25 (3/44/0)

wk12 - 40 (6/87/1)

wk13 - 8

wk14 - 42 (7/122/1)

wk15 - 50 (2/8/0 - heavy rain game, brady throws for 140 yds)

wk16 - 51 (5/82/1)

wk17 - 26 (0/0/0)

JAX - 33 (3/26/0)

SD - 27 (1/12/1)

NYG - 35 (0/0/0)

the 13 games where he plays at least 25 snaps as '#3' guy average out to:

35 snaps/game, about 50/550/6 (16 game projected)

in 2008 he was getting the bulk of the snaps with the departure of stallworth, but he had cassel at qb.

cassel's first 9 games he rang up 7 td's and 7 picks for a 200 ypg average.

the next 6 games cassel averaged 40 attempts and 300 yds, piling up 14 td's.

those 6 games got gaffney 22/314/1, which projects to about 60/840/3 over 16 games at 58 snaps/game.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Thoughts?

You're including these five games:

7/69/2

14/213/0

3/34/1

2/15/0

12/140/0

for obvious reasons. Why not include the last six games? Or seven games? Or eighteen games? Because the rest of those games, he was mostly worthless. Those 2 TDs he posted in week 16 last year were his only two TDs all season. So the first thing you should probably do if you're going to do an analysis like this is toss out the TDs. They're too unpredictable to extrapolate. Maybe Gaffney scores 12 TDs this year, or maybe he already scored the only one he'll get all season. Other than Brady's record-breaking 2007, Gaffney's never had more than 2 TDs in a season, so if I have to guess, I'm going to assume that Gaffney isn't suddenly in for a monster TD year in his 9th season.

So if we forget about the TDs, and just look at catches and yards, he has one mediocre week, two great weeks, and two horrible weeks in the past five. And if you go back further than that 7/69 game, "mediocre" is pretty much his ceiling. He has six 100-yard games in his career.

Is he in a better position to produce now, in Denver, with Orton, than he has been in the past? Maybe. But the two good games he's had recently scream fluke rather than trend. I'm not saying he's not worth stashing on your roster, but you don't want to be starting him every week. He'll likely disappoint you more often than not.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Think about it this way, all of the DEN WR's could make great WR3's because all four could have a great game every single week.

Targets, so far:

Player TM Wk1 Wk2 Wk3 Targ T/TmG T/G REC YD Y/R TD Rec%

Jabar Gaffney DEN 7 5 14 26 8.7 8.7 17 189 11.1 1 65.4

Eddie Royal DEN 10 5 9 24 8.0 8.0 17 186 10.9 1 70.8

Brandon Lloyd DEN 8 4 10 22 7.3 7.3 14 339 24.2 1 63.6

Demaryius Thomas DEN dnp 9 6 15 5.0 7.5 10 140 14.0 1 66.7

Wk Date Opp Recpt Yds TD Fum Pts

Gaffney:

1 09/12/10 @JAC 3 34 1 0 10.9

2 09/19/10 SEA 2 15 0 0 2.5

3 09/26/10 IND 12 140 0 0 20

- You know what, the feast or famine thing doesn't thrill me.

Royal:

1 09/12/10 @JAC 8 98 0 0 13.8

2 09/19/10 SEA 5 65 1 0 15

3 09/26/10 IND 4 23 0 0 4.

- This looks like PPR consistency and Indy just worked on minimizing this phase. DEN went to Gaffney as an alternative. I also think when Moreno gets back, maybe Gaffney's numbers go down, this is the possession outlet combo and maybe Royal's the priority here.

Lloyd:

1. 09/12/10 @JAC 5 117 0 0 14.2

2 09/19/10 SEA 3 53 0 0 6.8

3 09/26/10 IND 6 169 1 0 25.9

- You know what, I don't care what his name is: these stats don't lie. And that was an awesome catch in the end zone vs Indy. I feel bad for not jumping on him after game 1.

Dem. Thomas:

1 Inactive.

2 09/19/10 SEA 8 97 1 0 19.7

3 09/26/10 IND 2 43 0 0 5.3

- The second game back showed low numbers, but this guy just looks great. His first catch had impressive yards after catch and his second catch was near the end zone.

All of the above is with Denver blowing what like 3-5 red zone opportunities vs. Indy???

The way I see this is Royal possession PPR worth having; Lloyd big play man worth having; Thomas is a field stretcher worth having. Gaffney I don't get, especially with Moreno coming back in 1-2 weeks.

Denver's closing schedule looks good to me:

10 11/14/10 4:05pm KC - - - - -

11 11/22/10 8:30pm @SD - - - - -

12 11/28/10 4:15pm STL - - - - -

13 12/05/10 1:00pm @KC - - - - -

14 12/12/10 4:15pm @ARI - - - - -

15 12/19/10 4:15pm @OAK - - - - -

16 12/26/10 4:05pm HOU - - - - -

Why not take all 3 of Lloyd, Royal, + Thomas? Lloyd and Royal look startable and Thomas should be worth holding to see if he develops further this year and by the looks of him he will.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Thoughts?

You're including these five games:

7/69/2

14/213/0

3/34/1

2/15/0

12/140/0

for obvious reasons. Why not include the last six games? Or seven games? Or eighteen games? Because the rest of those games, he was mostly worthless. Those 2 TDs he posted in week 16 last year were his only two TDs all season. So the first thing you should probably do if you're going to do an analysis like this is toss out the TDs. They're too unpredictable to extrapolate. Maybe Gaffney scores 12 TDs this year, or maybe he already scored the only one he'll get all season. Other than Brady's record-breaking 2007, Gaffney's never had more than 2 TDs in a season, so if I have to guess, I'm going to assume that Gaffney isn't suddenly in for a monster TD year in his 9th season.

So if we forget about the TDs, and just look at catches and yards, he has one mediocre week, two great weeks, and two horrible weeks in the past five. And if you go back further than that 7/69 game, "mediocre" is pretty much his ceiling. He has six 100-yard games in his career.

Is he in a better position to produce now, in Denver, with Orton, than he has been in the past? Maybe. But the two good games he's had recently scream fluke rather than trend. I'm not saying he's not worth stashing on your roster, but you don't want to be starting him every week. He'll likely disappoint you more often than not.

Did you even read my whole post opening this thread? Here is my statement immediately after posting those 5 game stats.

Obviously Gaffney won't be posting those numbers this year, and I am not recommending trading Randy Moss for him. However, I am starting to think that Gaffney may very well put up respectable WR2 numbers this year. His numbers so far this year project to 90/1008/5. I don't think he'll hit the 90 reception mark, but I do think the 1000/5 numbers may be realistic for him.

This is Gaffney's 5th year in this system, by far the most of any of the WRs on this team. He's starting on an offense that looks like its going to have to throw the ball a ton. You would have done well for yourself to start Gaffney in 4 of his last 5 games. Some posts here have compared the Bronco receiving corp to that of Indy, NO or GB. Too many mouths to feed. The difference here is there is no Dallas Clark, Jeremy Shockey or Jermicheal Finley to steal a ton of targets. Royal/Gaffney/Lloyd/Thomas are gonna get a lot of work. Will there be inconsistencies from week to week? I would guess absolutely. Top notch #1 WRs may be pretty consistent in scoring points. The guys that finish between 15-30 are usually highly inconsistent. My guess is that by season's end there will be at least a couple of these guys that finish between 15-30.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Update on Gaffney through 6 weeks:

37/408/1

projected over 16: 98/1088/3

Solid 2/3 WR numbers and even better than that in PPR I am sure, as he is 4th in the league in receptions.

Gaffney's season so far:

3/34/1

2/15/0

12/140/0

5/51/0

9/87/0

6/81/0

 

[solorca]

I've been benching Gaffney most weeks, but he's putting up extremely consistent numbers in a PPR over the past month. I think I may start using him as my flex and just enjoy the consistency.

It seems like Brandon Lloyd having such a good season has really opened up the field for Gaffney. In the first two games of the year, he was defended much tougher.

 

[Sweet Love]

I drafted Gaffney as a low end WR3 hoping for just those types of numbers, and honestly he has come through. While Lloyd is obviously ripping it up this year, on game-by-game basis, Gaffney seems to be a little more consistent than Royal and from a WR3, that tends to be exactly what I am looking for.

 

[tonyftony716]

I think it all depends on how you drafted him. I drafted him s my 5th WR in a PPR to be used in case of injury and byes. For that, he is performing as he should. The lack of TD's would keep me from buying completely into him but i'm happy to throw him in as my flex on byes and his consistancy and dependability makes for a good spot on my bench in case of injuries.

I don't think his value goes up or down with injuries to other Denver wide outs. He serves a role on this team and he's a dependable outlet for Orton when needed.