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I Was Wrong about Player _______ (1 Viewer)

Neil Beaufort Zod

Neil Beaufort Zod

Footballguy
Despite our best research, sometimes we're just wrong about a guy. Who was your biggest mistake this year (underestimated or overestimated)?

For me: Justin Jefferson.
Perception on draft day: He's good, but way overrated. He's not on Kupp's level and the Vikings are a middling team focused on the run. He'll produce, but disappoint relative to where people are taking him. I'll be happy when someone burns a first-rounder on him.

Reality: Best receiver in the league, both fantasy and on the field.
 
The Miami O - at the price tag i was avoiding and obviously Tua, Hill and Waddle all did exceptionally well

The TB O - Brady's last chance and i went all in on godwin, evans and fournette
 
Neil Beaufort Zod said:
Despite our best research, sometimes we're just wrong about a guy. Who was your biggest mistake this year (underestimated or overestimated)?

For me: Justin Jefferson.
Perception on draft day: He's good, but way overrated. He's not on Kupp's level and the Vikings are a middling team focused on the run. He'll produce, but disappoint relative to where people are taking him. I'll be happy when someone burns a first-rounder on him.

Reality: Best receiver in the league, both fantasy and on the field.
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Quite the performance improvement after they ran off Mike Zimmer.
 
DJ Moore - not quite as QB proof as was thought

Matt Ryan - thought he had one more year of solid passing stats in him and would propel Pittman to the upper tier of WRs
 
Hurts

mocked him a lot as a value mid-round QB but breaking down his 2021 film talked myself out of it

2021 I made the championship game with a strong squad & streaming QBs. did not want to wait too long again.

was unwilling to pay up Allen-Mahomes-Herbert-LJax; equally loathe to believe classic a drop back (Brady-Cousins-Rodgers-Stafford) would be competitive. figured Russ was cooked when a lot of folks were saying he was gonna cooked. didn’t think Dak would have volume.

IOW got a lot of the process right.

when it came down to Burrow v Hurts v Murray….oh my gosh holy moly did I lay an egg. I took Kyler.

draft went well. went 10-4, #3 seed. but back in late September I knew it wasn’t a championship squad. kept grinding & had a decent season but felt inevitable I’d come up short. tons of injuries but whatever - that often happens, you have to overcome it. handled that aspect fine. very mediocre production for the draft capital at QB, would have been better off punting to being last to take QB again.
 
I was wrong to think I had a stacked WR room with 6 WR's who all should be considered FF low WR1/WR2 entering the season.

Pittman, Godwin, Gabe D, Sutton, Mooney, A Rob.
 
Not enough time to list all the guys I was wrong about, I'd miss New Year's Eve and a good portion of '23.
I'll just say in 1 redraft my initial starting lineup included Brady, Swift, C Patterson, DJ Moore, Mooney, Pitts. Eventually other teams started calling it a bye week when they were playing me.
 
The Rams.

What saved me is I was not patient after the week one goose egg. I benched and eventually dropped both Cam Akers and Allen Robinson (redraft), the moment I had an opportunity to move Henderson (dynasty) I jumped ship, and I hoarded dumpster diving contingency plans for Stafford (SF dynasty) both preseason then kept pushing the issue in-season. At one point I had 10 QB's on my roster. Jacoby Brissett and Taylor Heineke helped navigate the regular season, Baker Mayfield made a week 16 cameo, and I'm starting Brock Purdy and Mike White in the final. :laugh:
 
Gabe D-novels have been written about this.

Cole Kmet-thought it was gonna be a bigger jump.

Albert O-expectations were not high but thought he would at least have a pulse.

Drake London-for some reason I cannot explain I did like him but looks like he is a QB away from being very good.

Hunter Renfrow-probably my biggest miss...thought he had a chance to have a Welkeresque role.
 
BobbyLayne said:
Hurts

mocked him a lot as a value mid-round QB but breaking down his 2021 film talked myself out of it

2021 I made the championship game with a strong squad & streaming QBs. did not want to wait too long again.

was unwilling to pay up Allen-Mahomes-Herbert-LJax; equally loathe to believe classic a drop back (Brady-Cousins-Rodgers-Stafford) would be competitive. figured Russ was cooked when a lot of folks were saying he was gonna cooked. didn’t think Dak would have volume.

IOW got a lot of the process right.

when it came down to Burrow v Hurts v Murray….oh my gosh holy moly did I lay an egg. I took Kyler.

draft went well. went 10-4, #3 seed. but back in late September I knew it wasn’t a championship squad. kept grinding & had a decent season but felt inevitable I’d come up short. tons of injuries but whatever - that often happens, you have to overcome it. handled that aspect fine. very mediocre production for the draft capital at QB, would have been better off punting to being last to take QB again.
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Hurts so good. Sometimes drafts don’t feel like they should.
 
My biggest whiff was probably Chase Edmonds. Thought he was going to be a stud/PPR gold being one of the very first FA signings and going to an up and coming offense with a young innovative coach.
 
I faded quite a few I shouldn't have but the ones I drafted that hurt me the most were probably Sutton and Hunt.
 
Jonathan Taylor.

Taylor had been an Iron Man, not even missing practices. He was doomed by a deteriorating offensive line, and the corpse of Matt Ryan. Even Quentin Nelson looked overmatched at times.
 
zamboni said:
dmac37 said:
Mooney
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Mooney is a good call - thought he was good enough to be a volume machine with Fields.
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It started off badly, but was getting better when Fields improved drastically. Then he got hurt, and you can't do too much about that. Still happy to have acquired him and a pick improvement for JRob at peak JRob value and can see him having a solid 2023 assuming the Bears use picks to improve the line

For me, it's probably Goff
 
titusbramble said:
zamboni said:
dmac37 said:
Mooney
Click to expand...
Mooney is a good call - thought he was good enough to be a volume machine with Fields.
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It started off badly, but was getting better when Fields improved drastically. Then he got hurt, and you can't do too much about that. Still happy to have acquired him and a pick improvement for JRob at peak JRob value and can see him having a solid 2023 assuming the Bears use picks to improve the line
Click to expand...
I agree Mooney should improve, but have to think that his window as a #1 WR came and went. I don’t think Claypool is that #1 either, and that they’ll look for an alpha type to help Fields out. On what will probably be a low volume passing offense, not sure there would be much upside for the secondary option.
 
My normally long list is much longer this year. (sigh)
Probably top of that list though, Pittman (even fearing that Ryan was washed), Sutton, Best, DJ, Hurts, Pitts... lots more, but those were my biggest whiffs.
 
Allen Robinson

I was staying away at his ADP in early drafts, mainly because of his horrible 2021 season. But all the positive reports coming out of the Rams camp about him being the star of camp combined with his career prior to 2021 made me think he would be a solid #2 receiver with a nice floor in that offense. Took him late 3rd or early 4th in a couple drafts.

It was obvious early in the season, it wasn't gonna happen, but my leaguemates were too smart to take him off my hands when I tried to deal him. Ended up cutting him about week 5
 
Gabe Davis - I wanted 2002 Peerless Price. What did I get instead? 2002 Jerry Porter. And the concept of Jerry Porter was always better than the reality of Jerry Porter.

Amon-Ra St. Brown - Count me among those who thought his target spike late 2021 wasn’t sustainable. Turns out he’s one of those outlier Day 3 WRs who becomes a stud.

Albert Okwuegbunam - Similar to Gabe Davis in that I loved his underlying metrics and thought opportunity would be the key to unlocking the monster. Instead he was DOA. I dismissed Greg Dulcich as a threat when he was drafted and I was also wrong about that.

Kyle Pitts - I never want to hear “Talent > Situation” again. Sometimes that applies, and sometimes you end up with Kyle Pitts. I believe in the talent, but am praying the situation changes soon. Don’t know that I necessarily trust a rookie QB will make it any better with Arthur Smith running the offense.
 
I’m my main redraft, finally went “early“ on QB to lock down the position (drafted at the 4/5 turn instead of my usual 6/7 or 8/9).
thanks for nothing, Kyler.
 
dmac37 said:
I was wrong to think I had a stacked WR room with 6 WR's who all should be considered FF low WR1/WR2 entering the season.

Pittman, Godwin, Gabe D, Sutton, Mooney, A Rob.
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You did have a stacked room. Full of WR that had QB issues. Except for Gabe.
 
Felt both Tyreek and Davante would be high end WR2s due to a change of teams and downgraded QB play. Clearly wrong- both will finish as WR1s.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Hurts. I thought the NFL would figure him out.

He’s just really that good.

My bad.
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I drafted him as the last team in my league to take a QB so he was QB10 which is laughable looking back really. I didn't target him at all, he was just highest on my list when I realized I needed a QB and everyone else had one. Rodgers, Wilson, Brady all drafted by other teams. Paired him with AJ Brown, not knowing at all what was to come. Shame about the injury but i'm in my bowl mostly because of him. Sometimes it's better to be lucky.
 
RenegadeRoy said:
Josh Jacobs. Thought McDaniels would employ a platoon of running backs and would be pass happy with Adams, Waller, and Renfrow.
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This is my biggest whiff of the year.

In terms of who I was wrong about in terms of being to high on that's actually a little harder. I mean I liked Pitts but since I was lower then consensus I don't think I want to say it's him. Same thing for Swift. Liked him a lot, but was lower then consensus. I did 27 league managed redrafts and drafted Pitts once and Swift zero. So I'm gong to throw them out and go with someone I was actually higher on then the consensus.

So his last game not withstanding I got to go with Cam Akers. Now I did bail on him about 7-10 days before the regular season started, uncovered enough nuggets of info to turn me off, but I spent a chunk of my drafting season pulling him in the early 4th into mid 5th. So he wins for me.
 
LionOfGosforth said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Hurts. I thought the NFL would figure him out.

He’s just really that good.

My bad.
Click to expand...

I drafted him as the last team in my league to take a QB so he was QB10 which is laughable looking back really. I didn't target him at all, he was just highest on my list when I realized I needed a QB and everyone else had one. Rodgers, Wilson, Brady all drafted by other teams. Paired him with AJ Brown, not knowing at all what was to come. Shame about the injury but i'm in my bowl mostly because of him. Sometimes it's better to be lucky.
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I would have taken him as the QB10. He went in the 4th in my opinion 12-teamer as the QB5 off the board.
 
skillz said:
Russell Wilson. Thought Denver would build an offense around him and he was surrounded by lots of weapons. I was way off on that. Even drafted him ahead of Hurts. That pick killed my season.
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I was wrong about Russ, too.

I was sure he could at least be competent.

He’s downright awful.
 
Kyle Pitts - I’m never that person who spends big on TE, but this was the year I decided to do it. I was banking on that pre-season 52-yarder to be a common theme during the season, and I was sorely mistaken. I still feel it was mostly the QB play (more than the run-first offensive scheme) that held him back.

That auction capital would have been better spent on improving my WR pool because I was also wrong on Gabe Davis, Elijah Moore, and Kadarius Toney.
 
RenegadeRoy said:
Josh Jacobs. Thought McDaniels would employ a platoon of running backs and would be pass happy with Adams, Waller, and Renfrow.
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Same, and I was really pissed at myself, because I've always felt Jacobs was a top-5 RB talent.

On the other side, I was way too high on Pittman, and that was another one, where I wasn't really a big fan of the player but liked his situation as a target hog.

Lesson as always, talent>situation. Its not gonna be right 100%, but its right a lot more than it isn't.
 
Allen robinson

Really thought getting out of the chicago situation where he did actually made a lot of plays despite everything and getting into a great offense would mean big things for him.
 
Lansdowne said:
Kyle Pitts - I never want to hear “Talent > Situation” again. Sometimes that applies, and sometimes you end up with Kyle Pitts. I believe in the talent, but am praying the situation changes soon. Don’t know that I necessarily trust a rookie QB will make it any better with Arthur Smith running the offense.
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travdogg said:
Lesson as always, talent>situation. Its not gonna be right 100%, but its right a lot more than it isn't.
Click to expand...
:lol:
 
Other than Barkley in the first, basically my entire redrafts
2.0218-OZ- - Eliminated Week 4Swift, D'Andre DET RBTue Mar 29 2:25:33 p.m. ET 202232 minutes145.8Add Comment
3.1547-OZ- - Eliminated Week 4Pittman, Michael IND WRWed Mar 30 5:19:00 p.m. ET 20222 hours190.4Add Comment
4.0250-OZ- - Eliminated Week 4Godwin, Chris TBB WRWed Mar 30 5:20:38 p.m. ET 20221 minute192.3Add Comment
5.1579-OZ- - Eliminated Week 4Claypool, Chase CHI WR (Q)Thu Mar 31 8:23:32 p.m. ET 202233 minutes104.2Add Comment
6.0282-OZ- - Eliminated Week 4Stafford, Matthew LAR QB (I)Thu Mar 31 8:53:56 p.m. ET 202217 minutes171.5Add Comment
7.15111-OZ- - Eliminated Week 4Lance, Trey SFO QB (I)Sat Apr 2 11:35:02 a.m. ET 20221 hour16.4Add Comment
8.02114-OZ- - Eliminated Week 4Bateman, Rashod BAL WR (I)Sat Apr 2 1:28:45 p.m. ET 2022
 
-OZ- said:
Other than Barkley in the first, basically my entire redrafts
​
2.0218-OZ- - Eliminated Week 4Swift, D'Andre DET RBTue Mar 29 2:25:33 p.m. ET 202232 minutes145.8Add Comment
3.1547-OZ- - Eliminated Week 4Pittman, Michael IND WRWed Mar 30 5:19:00 p.m. ET 20222 hours190.4Add Comment
4.0250-OZ- - Eliminated Week 4Godwin, Chris TBB WRWed Mar 30 5:20:38 p.m. ET 20221 minute192.3Add Comment
5.1579-OZ- - Eliminated Week 4Claypool, Chase CHI WR (Q)Thu Mar 31 8:23:32 p.m. ET 202233 minutes104.2Add Comment
6.0282-OZ- - Eliminated Week 4Stafford, Matthew LAR QB (I)Thu Mar 31 8:53:56 p.m. ET 202217 minutes171.5Add Comment
7.15111-OZ- - Eliminated Week 4Lance, Trey SFO QB (I)Sat Apr 2 11:35:02 a.m. ET 20221 hour16.4Add Comment
8.02114-OZ- - Eliminated Week 4Bateman, Rashod BAL WR (I)Sat Apr 2 1:28:45 p.m. ET 2022
Click to expand...
Similarly, my entire top half of the draft in my main 12 team redraft league, from the 1 slot…
Taylor
Deebo
Fournette
Dionte
Kyler

season was basically over by week 5 after starting 1-4


the next few picks, btw, were AJDillon (too little too late) Thielen (vet WR who should give me solid WR3 numbers, right? Right?!) Robert Woods (see Thielen reasoning) and then Walker III (finally I nailed a draft pick in the 9th round). Ugh.

thexample is one of the main reasons why I enjoy being in 5 leagues. There‘s always a league that’s a sh!t show so hopefully other leagues are doing better (2 championship games this weekend for me. Phew)
 
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www.footballguys.com

The Gut Check No. 571: From the Gut

Matt Waldman has studied the film and the data, but it's time for a real gut check.
www.footballguys.com www.footballguys.com

Read too much Waldman stuff this year. Amazing I made the playoffs with Thomas, Dobbins, and Carr. Was extremely fortunately to drop from the early 2nd to late 2nd and get Chubb to pair with Diggs. That covered a a lot of mistakes.
 
Joe Mixon - I thought he might sniff top-3... nah.

D'Andre Swift - I thought he might be top-10... one of the biggest RB busts of the year.

Courtland Sutton & Dionte Johnson - Had both inside top-20... nope.

Chris Godwin - had him around WR30 thinking he would be slow to get back to form... solidly inside top-20 now.
 
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