Capella
Footballguy
I did this last year and think I got 12 or 13 right out of 32, so you know I’m an expert here.
No I am not adding up the wins to make sure I got the correct amount of over/unders. It’s not that serious. I am likely going to be wrong on very many of these. I do not care.
I am a homer and will be taking the Bucs over even if Baker Mayfield somehow is the quarterback.
Afc East:
Buffalo 10.5: over. Josh Allen is good enough for me to hit every reasonable over number. I don’t like their coach much but they seem talented still, especially on offense. I’m not sure they are good enough to win it all, but that not why we here.
Miami 9.5: under. Quite frankly, I think this is the play simply because I don’t think Tua plays all 17 games. I think the 9.5 might account for that because they have a lot of premier talent but I can’t accept their backup qb situation if Tua gets planted again.
Jets 9.5: under. I don’t trust their oline, which pretty much will destroy any team. People are acting like Rodgers wasn’t mid last year either? I don’t get it. Seems like a lot of wish casting here. Should be an awesome defense though. That coach sounded like an idiot on hard knocks. Hard to get past that.
New England 7.5: I’ll go slight over. QB sucks, skill guys are terrible, have to be the worst in the league but D should be awesome and still an advantage at coach. God Mac Jones at Qb still. Woof.
North
Bengals 11.5: under. That’s just too high for me. 11-6 is still a great season. I do think they may be the best team in the afc but not counting on 12 wins here. That’s crazy.
Browns 9.5: under. 8 or 9 sounds right. Very talented team, maybe if they just get Chubb 30 touches it’ll work out but not counting on that. We have no idea it Watson is still good he was horrible last year and he’s also a piece of garbage. I know that doesn’t matter for this purpose but it kinda does. No thanks.
Baltimore 10.5: under. Another number too high for me. 9-10 wins sounds right. Nothing ever changes with this team so why go into it.
Pittsburgh 8.5: over. Man this division is hell. Defense should be awesome. Great wideouts. They’ll punt that slug running back away at some point. Best coach or one of the best coaches in the game. Does anybody really see them going 8-9? I don’t even like Pickett that much and that seems unlikely.
AFC division of cities nobody ever wants to visit except Nashville
Jacksonville 9.5: is this for real? Under. Yea they have a lot of offensive talent but people are too hyped on them because they beat San Diego and their moron coach in the first round. Does everybody forget they only made the playoffs because Tennessee had to play NoHo Hank in week 18? Am I going crazy?
Tennessee 7.5: over. Their coach is good enough to get to 8. As bad as some of these coaches are you really gotta highlight the good ones. I think Tannehill is awful, their offense is boring but they’ll grind out a bunch of 13-10 wins 1998 style.
Indianapolis 6.5: wtf? There are people who expect 7 wins here? The QB couldn’t complete passes against VANDERBILT. Do they even have a running back. This is a nightmare. Who is betting on 7 wins here? I thought it would be 4.5 and I was still going under.
Houston 6.5: are their no 4.5s this year? Are these numbers goosed because the division sucks? Big under here for me, why would an you think this team would win 7 games.
West
KC 11.5: over for me as long as Mahomes and Reid are there. Imagine how nervous you’d be taking the under.
Chargers 9.5: over. I think they are one of the best teams in football. Time for Herbert to take the leap. Talent everywhere. Idiot coach. Seems like a good long-shot Super Bowl team.
Denver 8.5: slight under. Russ is cooked. Payton is already laying the groundwork to toss him aside. I think they win 7-8 games. The vibes just seem bad to me. They’re gonna get kicked around by the top two teams in this division.
Oakland 6.5: they’ll never be Vegas to me. How could you bet the over with this QB/coach combo? Deeply unserious franchise. I feel bad for their fans, well not the Vegas ones. I hope they trade Adams when they are eliminated after week 6.
NFC East
Dallas 9.5: over. So much talent. Another terrible coach. QB is fine, maybe a touch overrated but that’s just because he plays for Dallas. Potential to be an awesome defense. Did I say terrible coach though? I don’t see how they make the super bowl with this guy but they sure should at least go 10-7.
Philly 11.5: under. I think they win 10 or 11. Schedule seems a little harder. Man they are so talented but the Super Bowl hangover is real. Not a lot to dislike here and I doubt I would actually bet this one but this is the way I lean. The year after the special year is hard.
Washington Not Daniel Snyders 6.5: under. They already got their biggest win of the year and their QB is Sam Howell. Seen hype on them and don’t get it at all.
Giants 7.5: think they go 8-9 or 9-8. Not a lot of talent there. I’d be taking them to bomb if not for Daboll. All the hype for Waller who hasn’t been good for a while, is older and prone to injury AND is their #1 option is just too much. Let’s get real.
12 teams left still? Sheesh. League should contract.
NFC Cities people live in only bc they were born there
Green Bay 7.5: another slight over. Thinking 8-9. Division isn’t good. Defense seems like it should be ok. Guess we’ll see if Love was worth it. Every receiver has a torn hamstring. Aaron Jones is getting older. The giant running back killed me in fantasy last year and he was so bad I can’t even remember his name despite staring at his 6 ppg in shock every day for 4 months.
Minnesota 8.5: over. I guess somebody has to win this division. I’ll take the slight over. Man I don’t even want think about how much they are paying Kirk Cousins for this.
Detroit 9.5: get serious. Way under. Why are they playing tonight? It’s the opening game and it features the DETROIT LIONS? Was them ruining thanksgiving every year not enough? We waited 6 months to see a team who hasn’t won a playoff game in 32 years? How is this fair to us? Didn’t the Texans open one year? This feels like that. I can’t believe more people aren’t talking about this. The coach looks like a guy who changes his car’s oil at halftime.
Chicago 7.5: another number I can’t believe. Is everybody going 7-10 or 8-9 this year. Justin Fields is like that thread we had here where people were asking if they could throw for a 150 yards in an NFL game, only we know Justin can’t do it. This defense sucks, their skill players suck, their oline sucks, the guy paid to throw the ball can’t and we expect 8 wins? Under.
Also, Fields is my starting quarterback.
NFC Hurricane Division
Holy crap this division sucks. Go Bucs.
New Orleans 9.5: I’ll go under and say 8 or 9 wins. Easy schedule. Cool city. Everybody there is clearly insane. Carr is kinda washed isn’t he? Michael Thomas was never that good and will never be that good again. Olave is awesome. They are somehow like 85M over the cap every year and push it off to go 8-9 again. Weird franchise.
Atlanta 8.5: under. One of the dumbest coaches alive. They drafted a RB despite having two good ones and nobody actually drafting running backs. They won’t use him anyways if history is any indicator. Only franchise I’ve ever seen that drafts awesome skill players and then just throws it to some schlub named Joe or something. How could you bet on 9 wins with Desmond Ritter? Why would you have any of their fantasy players with this guy as QB and that guy as their coach?
Tampa 6.5: over. Look, Baker sucks. Bowles is the worst coach in the league, but there is enough talent here to go 8-9 and ensure we don’t get a franchise qb at the top of the draft and keep us on the hamster wheel of mediocrity for another 6 years. I think the defense is top-10 good and believe Canales is a good fit for the things Baker can do (throw interceptions, shoot commercials). There is no depth at all but I think they’ll be in it for this terrible division. Unlike,
Carolina 7.5: I’m sorry but when Adam Thielen is your #1 receiver you are not winning 8 games. I don’t really have anything else to say here sometimes it is just that simple.
NFC West
San Fran 10.5: over. Nothing to add here. Shanahan will get them to 11 or 12 wins before blowing it again in the playoffs. I don’t trust Purdy at all and would like that to be on the record so I can have one smart thing to point to next year when I remember this thread exists but they’ll be good enough to get to 11.
Seattle 8.5 over. They’re good enough. Carroll finds a way. Lot of good young talent. He may run it 45 times a game despite all that wideout talent. I think they’d be a good bet to win the west at +190.
Rams 6.5: I don’t know if this has changed since Kupp’s leg died but I’d go under even if it was 4.5. Horrible team. They’re gonna get Caleb and it’s gonna suck.
Cards 4.5: should be 2.5, seriously. Under. I can’t name 8 players on their team and if you can your wife probably hates you.
Thanks for reading!
No I am not adding up the wins to make sure I got the correct amount of over/unders. It’s not that serious. I am likely going to be wrong on very many of these. I do not care.
I am a homer and will be taking the Bucs over even if Baker Mayfield somehow is the quarterback.
Afc East:
Buffalo 10.5: over. Josh Allen is good enough for me to hit every reasonable over number. I don’t like their coach much but they seem talented still, especially on offense. I’m not sure they are good enough to win it all, but that not why we here.
Miami 9.5: under. Quite frankly, I think this is the play simply because I don’t think Tua plays all 17 games. I think the 9.5 might account for that because they have a lot of premier talent but I can’t accept their backup qb situation if Tua gets planted again.
Jets 9.5: under. I don’t trust their oline, which pretty much will destroy any team. People are acting like Rodgers wasn’t mid last year either? I don’t get it. Seems like a lot of wish casting here. Should be an awesome defense though. That coach sounded like an idiot on hard knocks. Hard to get past that.
New England 7.5: I’ll go slight over. QB sucks, skill guys are terrible, have to be the worst in the league but D should be awesome and still an advantage at coach. God Mac Jones at Qb still. Woof.
North
Bengals 11.5: under. That’s just too high for me. 11-6 is still a great season. I do think they may be the best team in the afc but not counting on 12 wins here. That’s crazy.
Browns 9.5: under. 8 or 9 sounds right. Very talented team, maybe if they just get Chubb 30 touches it’ll work out but not counting on that. We have no idea it Watson is still good he was horrible last year and he’s also a piece of garbage. I know that doesn’t matter for this purpose but it kinda does. No thanks.
Baltimore 10.5: under. Another number too high for me. 9-10 wins sounds right. Nothing ever changes with this team so why go into it.
Pittsburgh 8.5: over. Man this division is hell. Defense should be awesome. Great wideouts. They’ll punt that slug running back away at some point. Best coach or one of the best coaches in the game. Does anybody really see them going 8-9? I don’t even like Pickett that much and that seems unlikely.
AFC division of cities nobody ever wants to visit except Nashville
Jacksonville 9.5: is this for real? Under. Yea they have a lot of offensive talent but people are too hyped on them because they beat San Diego and their moron coach in the first round. Does everybody forget they only made the playoffs because Tennessee had to play NoHo Hank in week 18? Am I going crazy?
Tennessee 7.5: over. Their coach is good enough to get to 8. As bad as some of these coaches are you really gotta highlight the good ones. I think Tannehill is awful, their offense is boring but they’ll grind out a bunch of 13-10 wins 1998 style.
Indianapolis 6.5: wtf? There are people who expect 7 wins here? The QB couldn’t complete passes against VANDERBILT. Do they even have a running back. This is a nightmare. Who is betting on 7 wins here? I thought it would be 4.5 and I was still going under.
Houston 6.5: are their no 4.5s this year? Are these numbers goosed because the division sucks? Big under here for me, why would an you think this team would win 7 games.
West
KC 11.5: over for me as long as Mahomes and Reid are there. Imagine how nervous you’d be taking the under.
Chargers 9.5: over. I think they are one of the best teams in football. Time for Herbert to take the leap. Talent everywhere. Idiot coach. Seems like a good long-shot Super Bowl team.
Denver 8.5: slight under. Russ is cooked. Payton is already laying the groundwork to toss him aside. I think they win 7-8 games. The vibes just seem bad to me. They’re gonna get kicked around by the top two teams in this division.
Oakland 6.5: they’ll never be Vegas to me. How could you bet the over with this QB/coach combo? Deeply unserious franchise. I feel bad for their fans, well not the Vegas ones. I hope they trade Adams when they are eliminated after week 6.
NFC East
Dallas 9.5: over. So much talent. Another terrible coach. QB is fine, maybe a touch overrated but that’s just because he plays for Dallas. Potential to be an awesome defense. Did I say terrible coach though? I don’t see how they make the super bowl with this guy but they sure should at least go 10-7.
Philly 11.5: under. I think they win 10 or 11. Schedule seems a little harder. Man they are so talented but the Super Bowl hangover is real. Not a lot to dislike here and I doubt I would actually bet this one but this is the way I lean. The year after the special year is hard.
Washington Not Daniel Snyders 6.5: under. They already got their biggest win of the year and their QB is Sam Howell. Seen hype on them and don’t get it at all.
Giants 7.5: think they go 8-9 or 9-8. Not a lot of talent there. I’d be taking them to bomb if not for Daboll. All the hype for Waller who hasn’t been good for a while, is older and prone to injury AND is their #1 option is just too much. Let’s get real.
12 teams left still? Sheesh. League should contract.
NFC Cities people live in only bc they were born there
Green Bay 7.5: another slight over. Thinking 8-9. Division isn’t good. Defense seems like it should be ok. Guess we’ll see if Love was worth it. Every receiver has a torn hamstring. Aaron Jones is getting older. The giant running back killed me in fantasy last year and he was so bad I can’t even remember his name despite staring at his 6 ppg in shock every day for 4 months.
Minnesota 8.5: over. I guess somebody has to win this division. I’ll take the slight over. Man I don’t even want think about how much they are paying Kirk Cousins for this.
Detroit 9.5: get serious. Way under. Why are they playing tonight? It’s the opening game and it features the DETROIT LIONS? Was them ruining thanksgiving every year not enough? We waited 6 months to see a team who hasn’t won a playoff game in 32 years? How is this fair to us? Didn’t the Texans open one year? This feels like that. I can’t believe more people aren’t talking about this. The coach looks like a guy who changes his car’s oil at halftime.
Chicago 7.5: another number I can’t believe. Is everybody going 7-10 or 8-9 this year. Justin Fields is like that thread we had here where people were asking if they could throw for a 150 yards in an NFL game, only we know Justin can’t do it. This defense sucks, their skill players suck, their oline sucks, the guy paid to throw the ball can’t and we expect 8 wins? Under.
Also, Fields is my starting quarterback.
NFC Hurricane Division
Holy crap this division sucks. Go Bucs.
New Orleans 9.5: I’ll go under and say 8 or 9 wins. Easy schedule. Cool city. Everybody there is clearly insane. Carr is kinda washed isn’t he? Michael Thomas was never that good and will never be that good again. Olave is awesome. They are somehow like 85M over the cap every year and push it off to go 8-9 again. Weird franchise.
Atlanta 8.5: under. One of the dumbest coaches alive. They drafted a RB despite having two good ones and nobody actually drafting running backs. They won’t use him anyways if history is any indicator. Only franchise I’ve ever seen that drafts awesome skill players and then just throws it to some schlub named Joe or something. How could you bet on 9 wins with Desmond Ritter? Why would you have any of their fantasy players with this guy as QB and that guy as their coach?
Tampa 6.5: over. Look, Baker sucks. Bowles is the worst coach in the league, but there is enough talent here to go 8-9 and ensure we don’t get a franchise qb at the top of the draft and keep us on the hamster wheel of mediocrity for another 6 years. I think the defense is top-10 good and believe Canales is a good fit for the things Baker can do (throw interceptions, shoot commercials). There is no depth at all but I think they’ll be in it for this terrible division. Unlike,
Carolina 7.5: I’m sorry but when Adam Thielen is your #1 receiver you are not winning 8 games. I don’t really have anything else to say here sometimes it is just that simple.
NFC West
San Fran 10.5: over. Nothing to add here. Shanahan will get them to 11 or 12 wins before blowing it again in the playoffs. I don’t trust Purdy at all and would like that to be on the record so I can have one smart thing to point to next year when I remember this thread exists but they’ll be good enough to get to 11.
Seattle 8.5 over. They’re good enough. Carroll finds a way. Lot of good young talent. He may run it 45 times a game despite all that wideout talent. I think they’d be a good bet to win the west at +190.
Rams 6.5: I don’t know if this has changed since Kupp’s leg died but I’d go under even if it was 4.5. Horrible team. They’re gonna get Caleb and it’s gonna suck.
Cards 4.5: should be 2.5, seriously. Under. I can’t name 8 players on their team and if you can your wife probably hates you.
Thanks for reading!
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