ComfortablyNumb
Footballguy
I sent the following e-mail to Joe. Does it make sense to anybody else but me?
Hi Joe,
Thanks for your reply; I appreciate your perspective. I'll try again to offer some purely constructive feedback, not because I enjoy argument or debate, but because I'd like to help my favorite resource, FBG, to become even better and more useful. And because, as an engineer, I just can't help trying to fix/improve things...
Surely you remember the movie City Slickers, with Billy Crystal and Jack Palance. You may recall one of the key plot lines was Jack Palance trying to teach Billy Crystal about "The ONE THING" that matters most? Well, in fantasy football, the "One Thing" is......
Projections.
It's the basis and bottom line for everything leading up to the draft. Nothing else really matters; without good projections, even awesome tools like the VBD app or Draft Dominator are practically useless. Since nobody has a foolproof crystal ball (not even Dodds), I believe FBG should do everything possible to maximize the reliability of your projections. A few of my suggestions:
1. Stop attempting to project the # of games played by a player. It's simply ludicrous to think you can predict whether Vick, McFadden, or Austin will play 12, 14, or any specific number of games. It would be MUCH more useful to project all players as if they're playing 16 games. We know who the injury/suspension risks are and will adjust our draft strategies accordingly. Including speculation on games missed severely skews the projections and makes comparison MORE DIFFICULT.
2. Again, I will state that a consensus projection which averages the projections of several experts yields a statistically much more reliable result. It's been proven/demonstrated many times with academic studies. With all of the excellent staffers at your disposal, you could also divide the labor. Have 3-4 guys focus on QB's and TE's. A different group could focus on RB's, while a third group could handle WR's. You could let a rookie or two address Kickers and Defenses, as well. Then, MAKE these CONSENSUS Projections available for use in the VBD App and Draft Dominator.
3. Another under-utilized resource is the knowledgable membership of the Shark Pool. I know you already track Shark Pool projections for Spotlight players. Why not compile these Shark Pool consensus projections and make them available to plug into the VBD and DD, as well? Maybe you'd need to include a filtering review or algorithm to eliminate the handful of senseless projections or outliers which could skew the projections? I know I'd REALLY like to see/use some compiled Shark Pool consensus projections, and that's a free resource for you to tap.
4. If you need to free up some time/manpower from your staff to manage the increased attention on projections, perhaps you could eliminate a few of the articles published on FBG. Now, I really enjoy many of the articles, but there are just far too many of them. Who has the time to read all of it?
5. I'm not aware of any type of market research done by FBG. Do you periodically survey your paying customers about what they like or don't like or wish to improve(you probably do, but I'm just ignorant of it)?
Thanks for listening,
Bob
Hi Joe,
Thanks for your reply; I appreciate your perspective. I'll try again to offer some purely constructive feedback, not because I enjoy argument or debate, but because I'd like to help my favorite resource, FBG, to become even better and more useful. And because, as an engineer, I just can't help trying to fix/improve things...
Surely you remember the movie City Slickers, with Billy Crystal and Jack Palance. You may recall one of the key plot lines was Jack Palance trying to teach Billy Crystal about "The ONE THING" that matters most? Well, in fantasy football, the "One Thing" is......
Projections.
It's the basis and bottom line for everything leading up to the draft. Nothing else really matters; without good projections, even awesome tools like the VBD app or Draft Dominator are practically useless. Since nobody has a foolproof crystal ball (not even Dodds), I believe FBG should do everything possible to maximize the reliability of your projections. A few of my suggestions:
1. Stop attempting to project the # of games played by a player. It's simply ludicrous to think you can predict whether Vick, McFadden, or Austin will play 12, 14, or any specific number of games. It would be MUCH more useful to project all players as if they're playing 16 games. We know who the injury/suspension risks are and will adjust our draft strategies accordingly. Including speculation on games missed severely skews the projections and makes comparison MORE DIFFICULT.
2. Again, I will state that a consensus projection which averages the projections of several experts yields a statistically much more reliable result. It's been proven/demonstrated many times with academic studies. With all of the excellent staffers at your disposal, you could also divide the labor. Have 3-4 guys focus on QB's and TE's. A different group could focus on RB's, while a third group could handle WR's. You could let a rookie or two address Kickers and Defenses, as well. Then, MAKE these CONSENSUS Projections available for use in the VBD App and Draft Dominator.
3. Another under-utilized resource is the knowledgable membership of the Shark Pool. I know you already track Shark Pool projections for Spotlight players. Why not compile these Shark Pool consensus projections and make them available to plug into the VBD and DD, as well? Maybe you'd need to include a filtering review or algorithm to eliminate the handful of senseless projections or outliers which could skew the projections? I know I'd REALLY like to see/use some compiled Shark Pool consensus projections, and that's a free resource for you to tap.
4. If you need to free up some time/manpower from your staff to manage the increased attention on projections, perhaps you could eliminate a few of the articles published on FBG. Now, I really enjoy many of the articles, but there are just far too many of them. Who has the time to read all of it?
5. I'm not aware of any type of market research done by FBG. Do you periodically survey your paying customers about what they like or don't like or wish to improve(you probably do, but I'm just ignorant of it)?
Thanks for listening,
Bob