Hey everyone, it's your friendly neighborhood Eminence here to provide you with my Rookie Rankings for the 2015 Fantasy Season! If you're interested in seeing my rankings prior to the draft the line can be found here.
2015 RANKINGS
1.01 - Todd Gurley (RB)
Honestly, I hate the coronation of him as King. Especially how people are toting this guy as the best Running Back since in Adrian Peterson while the guy is still nursing an ACL injury. The tape doesn't lie though, he has everything you want out of a feature back. He will see plenty of carries in St. Louis. He's got size, speed, and power.
Todd Gurley at 90% of what he used to be is still the best Running Back in this draft class.
Todd Gurley at 80% of what he used to be is arguably still the best Running Back in this draft class.
Todd Gurley at 70% of what he used to be is NOT the best Running Back in this draft class.
I think he'll be fine and at least be 80% of what he used to be. I'm more concerned with him reinjuring his ACL or having another injury related to it. Statistics suggest that throughout his career he's more likely to tear his ACL than every oher player who has torn theirs before. Seeing as most workhorse backs see some type of injury when they are IN the NFL (Peterson, Charles, Foster, etc.), it makes me hesitant. Regardless, 1.01 goes to BPA and that's Gurley by a landslide.
1.02 - Kevin White (WR)
He's Larry Fitzgerald with more speed. If watch him play last year you saw him making NFL caliber catches. Look at his combine numbers:
6 ft 3
215 lbs
4.35 40-yard dash
The best part is that is he going to a team where Alshon Jeffery will draw significant attention from opposing defenses. You can send this guy deep. You can throw him a screen. You can throw him a fade route in the end zone. He is NFL ready and going to make a huge splash in this league. Compare his combine to Julio Jones, they're definitely the same caliber of player.
Julio Jones Combine
Kevin White Combine
1.03 - TJ Yeldon (RB)
When I look at TJ Yeldon, I see a Leveon Bell clone. Both guys are 6ft 1 and weigh between 225 - 230 lbs. Their combine numbers? Also extremely similar. I personally think Leveon Bell is the better prospect but that is neither here nor there. Either way, Yeldon is a guy who is built to be a 3 down player. He is nimble with the ball in his hands but needs to learn to be more aggressive and use his size to his advantage better.
But he lands in Jacksonville where his only competition is Denard Robinson and Toby Gerhart. Throw in the fact that Yeldon is an excellent pass catcher and this is a no-brainer 1.03 pick for me.
1.04 - Amari Cooper (WR)
The amount of targets Amari Cooper is going to see in 2015 is laughable. Oakland is so devoid of playmakers that it's going to be foolish for David Carr to do anything other than stare this guy down. Cooper definitely has the goods to beat coverage though but I think he's going to have trouble catching 10+ Touchdowns, especially with all the double coverage he's going to see.
Regardless though, the talent is there and if Oakland can find a few more playmakers to draw attention away from him he can definitely be a 90+ catch receiver.
1.05 - Melvin Gordon (RB)
Personally, I hate Melvin Gordon as a prospect. I think he's soft as a runner and had gaping holes to run through at Wisconsin. But with that said, you can't deny the opportunity he has in San Diego. He has virtually no competition for carries and should be given the chance to be "the guy" from the beginning. But I'm picturing a Reggie Bush style letdown with him.
His greatest attribute is his initial burst similar to Chris Johnson. If you bounce this guy outside on a Strong-I run formation he can definitely be off to the races in a hurry. HOWEVER, if you scheme against him going outside and force him inside I think Melvin Gordon is very beatable.
I'm not a fool though, I saw Chris Johnson run for 2,000 yards simply on his ability to click into that 2nd gear faster than everybody else on the field. That's why you have to take him in the Top-5. If the San Diego run-blocking unit is on point I can see this guy going for 1,200 and 10 Touchdowns. But he isn't the kind of player to make his own yards if the blocking isn't there.
1.06 - David Johnson (RB)
This is the first pick where people are going to question me but hear me out. This is a player who I think is suffering from small school bias. If you watched him play last year you saw a Running Back who could do everything. A guy who is patient behind his block, a guy who has a nice jump cut, a guy who can shed a few tackles, and a guy who could catch the ball.
Quite frankly, watching him play last year reminded me of Matt Forte and Doug Martin. A player that does everything "good" but very few things great. He's got the size to play the position at 6 ft 1 and 224 lbs.
He actually had better combine numbers in every drill than Melvin Gordon except the 20-yard shuttle. Which makes sense because that initial burst is what makes Gordon special. This just tells you the kind of athlete that David Johnson is.
Opportunity wise? All he has to do is beat out a 199 lb Andre Ellington who had a YPC average of 3.9 last season. I'm not saying that Ellington is a slouch but Johnson should immediately compete for carries and be a fixture in the Red Zone.
1.07 - Nelson Agholor (WR)
You either believe in the genius of Chip Kelly or you don't. But if you look at what Jeremy Maclin produced last year, you can see there is a huge opening in this Offense and Nelson Agholor has an opportunity to fill it. I would honestly love to rank him higher but I can't justify that with Sam Bradford as starting Quarterback coming off an ACL tear. But he projects to be a starter in year one in a prolific Offense. You can't pass that up.
His game is in the same mold as Jeremy Maclin's was and I honestly I see a little bit of Randy Moss with the long strides this guy takes to get downfield. It's tough to rank him higher because of his Quarterback situation.
1.08 - Tevin Coleman (RB)
You guys are probably wondering, what's with all the Running Backs? But there were a lot of good landing spots for Running Backs this year. I'll take Tevin Coleman who will get a chance to win the starting job in a high powered Falcons offense over a guy like Breshard Perriman or Devante Parker.
The intensity that this guy runs with is amazing. Everytime he touches the ball he is looking for a crease to take it to the house. It honestly reminds me of Adrian Peterson, Darren McFadden, and Christine Michael. If a linebacker gives him the hint of a lane, he is bowling towards the endzone. He's a kind of guy who can take a power run 60 yards in a blink of an eye.
What I don't like about the guy is his inability to make people miss or consistently shed tackles. I think he needs to learn how to pick up the dirty yards on 3rd and short. But if he can learn that, he's got as much upside as anyone else in this draft class. He needs to add a few more moves to his repertoire to go with his elite ability to burn up the creases in defenses.
1.09 - Ameer Abdullah (RB)
This guy has an entire highlight reel of juking out defenders and breaking through tackles. I don't care what his 40 times says. He's going to hit the field and create chaos. I see a little bit of Darren Sproles and a little bit of Jahvid Best. He went to the perfect Offense and should be utilized to perfection on draws, screens, etc.
I've seen him shed tackles, out-accelerate defensive backs, and juke people out of their cleats. Unfortunately though, he doesn't have the size of workhorse Running Back. Picture him being utilized similar to Pierre Thomas. He is definitely a candidate for 30+ catches. So if you're playing in PPR feel free to bump him where I have Coleman listed.
His upside is limited through TDs though. The 229 lb Joique Bell will see the majority of the goalline work.
1.10 - Jameis Winston (QB)
In case you haven't noticed, when a Quarterback goes at 1.01 they are usually pretty damn good. Andrew Luck and Cam Newton have been excellent fantasy options since their rookie season. Personally, I love the throws Winston can make. He rips the balls into tight windows and has an excellent duo of Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson to throw to.
He is not afraid to sift through the pocket and take a hit to make a play downfield. If you need a QB, feel free to take him earlier. But this is the guy. I'm not vibing the Mariota love, he has virtually no viable RZ options besides Delanie Walker (bump Delanie Walker).
1.11 - Breshard Perriman (WR)
From a talent perspective, Perriman is one of the most talented players in the draft. BUT! He plays for the Ravens and Joe Flacco is his starting Quarterback. In my mind, he is cut from the same mold as Kelvin Benjamin and Martavis Bryant. He is an absolute behemoth on the field and will have the opportunity to bank off some mismatches in the redzone.
However, if you're scheming against the Ravens you're totally going to let Steve Smith beat you and not this guy. I think he's going to see the best defensive backs from opposing teams and I'm not certain he can win those matchups just yet. He doesn't quite have the same ability to track the deep ball as Torrey Smith but I can definitely see him reeling in a few of those passes that Flacco used to throw.
1.12 - DeVante Parker (WR)
Honestly, I think Jarvis Landry is a better prospect and has better separation skills than DeVante Parker. However, I am a believer in Ryan Tannehil and think that Parker has the ability to beast it up in the RZ and make contested catches. He's a physical player in the same mold as Andre Johnson or Terrell Owens but will not be able to produce YAC on a consistent basis.
But I can definitely see him developing into an 80 catch / 8 Touchdown kind of player. It's a close logjam between him and the next couple of players I've got ranked below him in the 2nd Round.
2.01 - Duke Johnson (RB)
Duke Johnson may be my favorite Running Back prospect in the entire draft. He fits the same mold as Shady McCoy and Ray Rice of small shifty backs who can rack up yardage in the Running Game and Passing Game. However, Cleveland has a stable of capable Running Backs and I'm not sure Johnson will earn a large enough share of the pie in Year 1 to justify ranking him much higher than this.
2.02 - Devin Funchess (WR/TE)
If Carolina is smart, they will use Devin Funchess the same exact way Julius Thomas was utilized in Denver. A big behemoth target to create mismatches around the field. He looks like an ogre out there and has sloppy hands when catching the ball but he's athletic enough to make LBs pay. I'm questioning bumping him up higher but his hands are quite skeptical. When the ball is in his hands he has decent enough ball skills though. If he ends up being a starter, I'd feel comfortable bumping him into the first round.
Potential TD machine right here.
2.03 - Marcus Mariota (QB)
Besides Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker, his weapons are pretty much trash and the entire Offense can be schemed away by a versatile defensive. With that in mind, I am very intrigued with his rushing yards. There will be times where nobody is open and there will be ample room for him to tuck the ball and run downfield. But the passing yards simply will not be there.
I personally hate Dorial Green-Beckam so that has a huge impact on my ranking here.
2.04 - Philip Dorsett (WR)
The Colts might as well come out and run 4WR sets every down at this rate. Honestly, Andrew Luck is unstoppable. Especially with the new rules, the only way to stop him is with a good pass rush. The only problem here is opportunity. He's competing with:
TY Hilton
Andre Johnson
Coby Fleener
Dwayne Allen
Donte Moncrief
For snaps and targets. Fortunately, he'll be seeing scrub defensive backs when he is in the same and should see more than a few deep bombs as Andrew Luck loves to sling it. I'm considering bumping him higher. Depends where he ends up on the depth chart, I guess.
2.05 - Jay Ajayi (RB)
Someone else mentioned this in another thread but Lamar Miller is in a contract year and the Dolphins got Jay Ajayi on the cheap. This is definitely Miller's backfield to lose and if Ajayi can prove he can stay healthy, he can definitely carve out a niche for himself in 2016. I'm concerned if his injury concerns are as bad as his draft day slide indicates.
However though, he's a big back with great moves. He could learn to be a little more 'North - South' though.
2.06 - Devin Smith (WR)
If Devin Smith's Quarterback wasn't Geno Smith, I'd be much more bullish on his prospects. As a player, he is easily the best deep threat receiver in this draft. I severely question Geno Smith's ability to deliver said deep ball. He's got this sick one-handed highlight reel catch that really sticks out to me.
I think he's going to develop into a great player and has much more potential than being a one-trick pony.
2015 RANKINGS
1.01 - Todd Gurley (RB)
Honestly, I hate the coronation of him as King. Especially how people are toting this guy as the best Running Back since in Adrian Peterson while the guy is still nursing an ACL injury. The tape doesn't lie though, he has everything you want out of a feature back. He will see plenty of carries in St. Louis. He's got size, speed, and power.
Todd Gurley at 90% of what he used to be is still the best Running Back in this draft class.
Todd Gurley at 80% of what he used to be is arguably still the best Running Back in this draft class.
Todd Gurley at 70% of what he used to be is NOT the best Running Back in this draft class.
I think he'll be fine and at least be 80% of what he used to be. I'm more concerned with him reinjuring his ACL or having another injury related to it. Statistics suggest that throughout his career he's more likely to tear his ACL than every oher player who has torn theirs before. Seeing as most workhorse backs see some type of injury when they are IN the NFL (Peterson, Charles, Foster, etc.), it makes me hesitant. Regardless, 1.01 goes to BPA and that's Gurley by a landslide.
1.02 - Kevin White (WR)
He's Larry Fitzgerald with more speed. If watch him play last year you saw him making NFL caliber catches. Look at his combine numbers:
6 ft 3
215 lbs
4.35 40-yard dash
The best part is that is he going to a team where Alshon Jeffery will draw significant attention from opposing defenses. You can send this guy deep. You can throw him a screen. You can throw him a fade route in the end zone. He is NFL ready and going to make a huge splash in this league. Compare his combine to Julio Jones, they're definitely the same caliber of player.
Julio Jones Combine
Kevin White Combine
1.03 - TJ Yeldon (RB)
When I look at TJ Yeldon, I see a Leveon Bell clone. Both guys are 6ft 1 and weigh between 225 - 230 lbs. Their combine numbers? Also extremely similar. I personally think Leveon Bell is the better prospect but that is neither here nor there. Either way, Yeldon is a guy who is built to be a 3 down player. He is nimble with the ball in his hands but needs to learn to be more aggressive and use his size to his advantage better.
But he lands in Jacksonville where his only competition is Denard Robinson and Toby Gerhart. Throw in the fact that Yeldon is an excellent pass catcher and this is a no-brainer 1.03 pick for me.
1.04 - Amari Cooper (WR)
The amount of targets Amari Cooper is going to see in 2015 is laughable. Oakland is so devoid of playmakers that it's going to be foolish for David Carr to do anything other than stare this guy down. Cooper definitely has the goods to beat coverage though but I think he's going to have trouble catching 10+ Touchdowns, especially with all the double coverage he's going to see.
Regardless though, the talent is there and if Oakland can find a few more playmakers to draw attention away from him he can definitely be a 90+ catch receiver.
1.05 - Melvin Gordon (RB)
Personally, I hate Melvin Gordon as a prospect. I think he's soft as a runner and had gaping holes to run through at Wisconsin. But with that said, you can't deny the opportunity he has in San Diego. He has virtually no competition for carries and should be given the chance to be "the guy" from the beginning. But I'm picturing a Reggie Bush style letdown with him.
His greatest attribute is his initial burst similar to Chris Johnson. If you bounce this guy outside on a Strong-I run formation he can definitely be off to the races in a hurry. HOWEVER, if you scheme against him going outside and force him inside I think Melvin Gordon is very beatable.
I'm not a fool though, I saw Chris Johnson run for 2,000 yards simply on his ability to click into that 2nd gear faster than everybody else on the field. That's why you have to take him in the Top-5. If the San Diego run-blocking unit is on point I can see this guy going for 1,200 and 10 Touchdowns. But he isn't the kind of player to make his own yards if the blocking isn't there.
1.06 - David Johnson (RB)
This is the first pick where people are going to question me but hear me out. This is a player who I think is suffering from small school bias. If you watched him play last year you saw a Running Back who could do everything. A guy who is patient behind his block, a guy who has a nice jump cut, a guy who can shed a few tackles, and a guy who could catch the ball.
Quite frankly, watching him play last year reminded me of Matt Forte and Doug Martin. A player that does everything "good" but very few things great. He's got the size to play the position at 6 ft 1 and 224 lbs.
He actually had better combine numbers in every drill than Melvin Gordon except the 20-yard shuttle. Which makes sense because that initial burst is what makes Gordon special. This just tells you the kind of athlete that David Johnson is.
Opportunity wise? All he has to do is beat out a 199 lb Andre Ellington who had a YPC average of 3.9 last season. I'm not saying that Ellington is a slouch but Johnson should immediately compete for carries and be a fixture in the Red Zone.
1.07 - Nelson Agholor (WR)
You either believe in the genius of Chip Kelly or you don't. But if you look at what Jeremy Maclin produced last year, you can see there is a huge opening in this Offense and Nelson Agholor has an opportunity to fill it. I would honestly love to rank him higher but I can't justify that with Sam Bradford as starting Quarterback coming off an ACL tear. But he projects to be a starter in year one in a prolific Offense. You can't pass that up.
His game is in the same mold as Jeremy Maclin's was and I honestly I see a little bit of Randy Moss with the long strides this guy takes to get downfield. It's tough to rank him higher because of his Quarterback situation.
1.08 - Tevin Coleman (RB)
You guys are probably wondering, what's with all the Running Backs? But there were a lot of good landing spots for Running Backs this year. I'll take Tevin Coleman who will get a chance to win the starting job in a high powered Falcons offense over a guy like Breshard Perriman or Devante Parker.
The intensity that this guy runs with is amazing. Everytime he touches the ball he is looking for a crease to take it to the house. It honestly reminds me of Adrian Peterson, Darren McFadden, and Christine Michael. If a linebacker gives him the hint of a lane, he is bowling towards the endzone. He's a kind of guy who can take a power run 60 yards in a blink of an eye.
What I don't like about the guy is his inability to make people miss or consistently shed tackles. I think he needs to learn how to pick up the dirty yards on 3rd and short. But if he can learn that, he's got as much upside as anyone else in this draft class. He needs to add a few more moves to his repertoire to go with his elite ability to burn up the creases in defenses.
1.09 - Ameer Abdullah (RB)
This guy has an entire highlight reel of juking out defenders and breaking through tackles. I don't care what his 40 times says. He's going to hit the field and create chaos. I see a little bit of Darren Sproles and a little bit of Jahvid Best. He went to the perfect Offense and should be utilized to perfection on draws, screens, etc.
I've seen him shed tackles, out-accelerate defensive backs, and juke people out of their cleats. Unfortunately though, he doesn't have the size of workhorse Running Back. Picture him being utilized similar to Pierre Thomas. He is definitely a candidate for 30+ catches. So if you're playing in PPR feel free to bump him where I have Coleman listed.
His upside is limited through TDs though. The 229 lb Joique Bell will see the majority of the goalline work.
1.10 - Jameis Winston (QB)
In case you haven't noticed, when a Quarterback goes at 1.01 they are usually pretty damn good. Andrew Luck and Cam Newton have been excellent fantasy options since their rookie season. Personally, I love the throws Winston can make. He rips the balls into tight windows and has an excellent duo of Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson to throw to.
He is not afraid to sift through the pocket and take a hit to make a play downfield. If you need a QB, feel free to take him earlier. But this is the guy. I'm not vibing the Mariota love, he has virtually no viable RZ options besides Delanie Walker (bump Delanie Walker).
1.11 - Breshard Perriman (WR)
From a talent perspective, Perriman is one of the most talented players in the draft. BUT! He plays for the Ravens and Joe Flacco is his starting Quarterback. In my mind, he is cut from the same mold as Kelvin Benjamin and Martavis Bryant. He is an absolute behemoth on the field and will have the opportunity to bank off some mismatches in the redzone.
However, if you're scheming against the Ravens you're totally going to let Steve Smith beat you and not this guy. I think he's going to see the best defensive backs from opposing teams and I'm not certain he can win those matchups just yet. He doesn't quite have the same ability to track the deep ball as Torrey Smith but I can definitely see him reeling in a few of those passes that Flacco used to throw.
1.12 - DeVante Parker (WR)
Honestly, I think Jarvis Landry is a better prospect and has better separation skills than DeVante Parker. However, I am a believer in Ryan Tannehil and think that Parker has the ability to beast it up in the RZ and make contested catches. He's a physical player in the same mold as Andre Johnson or Terrell Owens but will not be able to produce YAC on a consistent basis.
But I can definitely see him developing into an 80 catch / 8 Touchdown kind of player. It's a close logjam between him and the next couple of players I've got ranked below him in the 2nd Round.
2.01 - Duke Johnson (RB)
Duke Johnson may be my favorite Running Back prospect in the entire draft. He fits the same mold as Shady McCoy and Ray Rice of small shifty backs who can rack up yardage in the Running Game and Passing Game. However, Cleveland has a stable of capable Running Backs and I'm not sure Johnson will earn a large enough share of the pie in Year 1 to justify ranking him much higher than this.
2.02 - Devin Funchess (WR/TE)
If Carolina is smart, they will use Devin Funchess the same exact way Julius Thomas was utilized in Denver. A big behemoth target to create mismatches around the field. He looks like an ogre out there and has sloppy hands when catching the ball but he's athletic enough to make LBs pay. I'm questioning bumping him up higher but his hands are quite skeptical. When the ball is in his hands he has decent enough ball skills though. If he ends up being a starter, I'd feel comfortable bumping him into the first round.
Potential TD machine right here.
2.03 - Marcus Mariota (QB)
Besides Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker, his weapons are pretty much trash and the entire Offense can be schemed away by a versatile defensive. With that in mind, I am very intrigued with his rushing yards. There will be times where nobody is open and there will be ample room for him to tuck the ball and run downfield. But the passing yards simply will not be there.
I personally hate Dorial Green-Beckam so that has a huge impact on my ranking here.
2.04 - Philip Dorsett (WR)
The Colts might as well come out and run 4WR sets every down at this rate. Honestly, Andrew Luck is unstoppable. Especially with the new rules, the only way to stop him is with a good pass rush. The only problem here is opportunity. He's competing with:
TY Hilton
Andre Johnson
Coby Fleener
Dwayne Allen
Donte Moncrief
For snaps and targets. Fortunately, he'll be seeing scrub defensive backs when he is in the same and should see more than a few deep bombs as Andrew Luck loves to sling it. I'm considering bumping him higher. Depends where he ends up on the depth chart, I guess.
2.05 - Jay Ajayi (RB)
Someone else mentioned this in another thread but Lamar Miller is in a contract year and the Dolphins got Jay Ajayi on the cheap. This is definitely Miller's backfield to lose and if Ajayi can prove he can stay healthy, he can definitely carve out a niche for himself in 2016. I'm concerned if his injury concerns are as bad as his draft day slide indicates.
However though, he's a big back with great moves. He could learn to be a little more 'North - South' though.
2.06 - Devin Smith (WR)
If Devin Smith's Quarterback wasn't Geno Smith, I'd be much more bullish on his prospects. As a player, he is easily the best deep threat receiver in this draft. I severely question Geno Smith's ability to deliver said deep ball. He's got this sick one-handed highlight reel catch that really sticks out to me.
I think he's going to develop into a great player and has much more potential than being a one-trick pony.
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