I think this guy is under rated--he seems to be ranked in the 40s or 50s for RBs. It looks like he has a secure starting gig for four games and a chance to lock it down for the year. No, he won't be a RB1 but he has a decent chance to be a RB2.
What does RB2 mean? Does it mean another 1010 total yard, 6 touchdown season? Because that made him somewhere around rb20-25 in most scoring staters last year. And yet he was pretty brutal to own, and probably will be again. His most valuable weeks last year were weeks 4-6 when he had 325 total yards and 3 touchdowns, but by necessity that means his other 13 weeks were 685 yards and 3 touchdowns. About 53 yards with a 1 in 4 chance of scoring a touchdown. Yuck.
He should have some value weeks 1-4, but how are you building your team that you're starting Terrance West before any injuries happen to your team? Even with the browns and jaguar on the early schedule. He had the browns and jags weeks 2 and 3 last year, too. 1 catch, 57 total yards. 1 catch, 53 total yards. In 4 games against the browns, jets and jaguars he had under 200 total yards and 0 touchdowns, and that was without Danny woodhead making it even harder to guess, and before Dixon had any experience. So it sucks playing him.
Is he better in best ball? Not really. Sure you'd have gotten his 5 ok games, but lots of guys should have 5 ok games. His steady single digit point production is actually less valuable in best ball.
Have they talked him up this off season? A little, but what else are they going to do? He's the week 1-4 starter. They're not going to declare the competition over in June. That doesn't mean he can't improve at age 26 - his numbers last year were a slight improvement over his rookie season. It just means he's not that you can't assume positive coach speak means he's made any huge leaps. So far the only thing they've really said is he hasn't lost the week 5-17 job. That's not really news.
But let's say he puts up identical numbers to last year and plays 16 games with random distribution of his 1010/6. That's still a guy you're going to want to bench if you have any waiver rb getting a short term opportunity. A lot of options would would look appetizing next to 63 total yards with a 40% chance of a touchdown. Which means despite his rb23 finish in 16 games last year, he's not really a rb2 - he's a low ppg option that accumulated more points than better guys who missed games or who only started part of the year.
He's a sucker play. The kind of guy people draft by looking at his total numbers and immediately regret. Don't be that guy.
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