Dynasty: Pre-combine / Pre-NFL Draft rookie rankings 2017 (2 Viewers)

[Snorkelson]

I'm not going to dispute Mixon's talent.  But asserting he will absolutely be drafted is an overreach IMO.  Ever hear of a guy named Ray Rice?  Proven stud RB in the NFL.  Physically abused a woman and when that tape broke that was the last time he touched a football in a NFL game.  And he has since shown contrition - something Mixon has not done.

I'm not taking the absolute position that Mixon won't be drafted, but it would not surprise me in the least if he weren't.  The guy is poison to even the most secure GM and organization.

'1st rd talent in the 5th- he will go to a team like Seattle or New England, because they won't want to pass up that talent. They are also well respected so they'll weather the pr storm pretty easily. 

Im sure there are a more people that you come across in real life that have done something like this than you know. Dalvin Cook has past issues as well but it's not hurting his stock. We often look at football players and hold them to a higher standard than we do our neighbors. Communities have historically protected pedofiles, alcoholics, and wife beaters because it would ruin a community, a church, athletic program, whatever. Not to lump those transgressions together, I'm just saying stuff gets covered up. Some guys hit other guys for no real reason, and that's no better. This stuff should be brought into the open- and as a community we need to support these people to try to help them, and make sure they get on the right track, or prosecute them when it is warranted. In a lot of cases we need to stand up when it's happening rather than look the other way with your hands in your pocket. When mixon hit that girl, did anyone stand up to him right then and say "wtf are you doing"? I don't care how big and scary someone is, I'll make the statement here- if I see something like this happen, I will at the very least let him have an earful, and if he wants to hit me I'll probably get my a** handed to me because I'm pretty average, but hopefully I'll have a community behind me. Quit minding your own business so much.

 

[Ilov80s]

A couple thoughts:

Davis seems like the closest to a can't miss.

Karlos Henderson needs to be higher on most of your boards, the guy is electric. If he has a good combine (which I expect), he's going to rocket up draft boards.

John Ross has an injury history that makes him almost undraftable. 

 

[Ilov80s]

I'm not going to dispute Mixon's talent.  But asserting he will absolutely be drafted is an overreach IMO.  Ever hear of a guy named Ray Rice?  Proven stud RB in the NFL.  Physically abused a woman and when that tape broke that was the last time he touched a football in a NFL game.  And he has since shown contrition - something Mixon has not done.

I'm not taking the absolute position that Mixon won't be drafted, but it would not surprise me in the least if he weren't.  The guy is poison to even the most secure GM and organization.

The thing with Rice was that he had already fallen off a cliff in terms of play. If he had something left in the tank, I think he might have been given a chance. 

 

[petekrum]

I'm not going to dispute Mixon's talent.  But asserting he will absolutely be drafted is an overreach IMO.  Ever hear of a guy named Ray Rice?  Proven stud RB in the NFL.  Physically abused a woman and when that tape broke that was the last time he touched a football in a NFL game.  And he has since shown contrition - something Mixon has not done.

I'm not taking the absolute position that Mixon won't be drafted, but it would not surprise me in the least if he weren't.  The guy is poison to even the most secure GM and organization.

Rice was coming off a hugely lackluster season and already had a bunch of mileage on him. Had he done the same thing 3 or 4 years earlier coming off one of his huge seasins , half the teams in the league would have been lined up to add him. The ONLY reason Rice didnt get another job was because he was shot. There is no chance Mixon doesn't get drafted. Someone will always take a chance on talent.

 

[Bronco Billy]

The thing with Rice was that he had already fallen off a cliff in terms of play. If he had something left in the tank, I think he might have been given a chance. 

Now let's step back a little. Teams gave a turd like Richardson multiple chances.  Rice was only 28 at the time, and while his last season was poor, he was also a guy who had strung together multiple ProBowl quality seasons right up to a year before his last.  

Teams wouldn't even bring him in to talk or try out when the only cost likely would have been a vet minimum contract.  A lot of teams were trying out and signing guys with a lot less history or talent than Rice in the meantime.

Again, just adding a little different perspective given the nature of the transgression and how deeply it impacts the thinking of NFL management.  There is a clear history lesson here that ought to be taken into account and given due weight.  Some GM is going to have to pull the trigger on that draft pick and then be prepared to be held accountable for it when the backlash of negative publicity and protesting hits.

 

[Hankmoody]

This makes no sense to me.  Where/if one gets drafted affects every player and is not unique to Mixon.  Mixon is going to play whether he is drafted or signs as a FA.  I can see rankings based on the risk of future offenses but where/if he gets drafted???  Irrelevant....he's going to play and frankly for fantasy purposes a FA contract benefits him.

I'm hoping we can start seeing discussion on Mixon as a player.  The off the field issues have been discussed ad-nauseum.  Frankly, I see his chances for re-habilitation much higher than if he had substance issues.  

There are significant discussions on Mixon's talent all over the place.  Consensus 1st round talent.

Where/if he gets drafted affects him more than just about anyone else.  If he's available in the 6th round an NFL team won't hesitate to take him as a role player or bury him if the publicity gets bad.  There was an article the other day about Tennessee being willing to spend a late pick on him.  That would be devastating to his value.  Dallas isn't using a 2nd on him but why wouldn't they use a 5th?  If you get four years of a quality backup RB out of a 5th you're happy, and a weapon on returns too is money in the bank.  How thrilled must KCC be with the return on Tyreek despite having nearly zero need to give him snaps at RB?  Think they wouldn't do the same with Mixon if they didn't have Tyreek?  Think Miami or Chicago or Arizona or PIT wouldn't?  HUGE risk to his dynasty value the later he stays available.  If he goes in the first three rounds there's a reasonable expectation that he'll go to a team that he'll eventually get a shot at being the primary ball carrier for.

 

[Hankmoody]

If he's a 4th rounder in a good spot, he probably goes as high as #5.

If no team drafts him and he lands as a UDFA, he probably is around #10-#14, I'd guess depending on roster space and league mates. 

In various leagues as I plan my draft strategy I'm taking him at 1.03 if he goes to a decent/good spot.  I'm taking him at 1.06 if he goes anywhere but a disaster (DAL, TEN, etc).  I am a firm believer in physical talent playing out, and his will play out if he gets the opportunity.  The only thing that can scare me off is if someone takes him as a luxury depth/role pick.

 

[EBF]

Ray Rice was past it by the time he had his incident.

As for Mixon, where is the outrage for Tyreek Hill? I saw angry posts on Twitter when KC drafted him, but when you watch highlights of him scoring TDs at Arrowhead, all you hear is fans cheering. Winning cures everything.

Mixon has it worse because they caught his incident on film, but at the same time it was two years ago and he hasn't had any major issues since then. The team that drafts him can pull the, "He was a young guy. He made a mistake. We believe in second chances."

Without all the issues, I'd say he'd be a 1st round pick. Now I'm thinking maybe 3rd-early 4th round. I don't see him falling much lower unless teams turn up other dirt on him. Not much risk in the 4th round when all of the obvious quality prospects are already off the board.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

A couple thoughts:

Davis seems like the closest to a can't miss.

Karlos Henderson needs to be higher on most of your boards, the guy is electric. If he has a good combine (which I expect), he's going to rocket up draft boards.

John Ross has an injury history that makes him almost undraftable. 

Does Carlos only weight 165?

 

[Ilov80s]

Does Carlos only weight 165?

We will find out. 

 

[Hankmoody]

I'm not going to dispute Mixon's talent.  But asserting he will absolutely be drafted is an overreach IMO.  Ever hear of a guy named Ray Rice?  Proven stud RB in the NFL.  Physically abused a woman and when that tape broke that was the last time he touched a football in a NFL game.  And he has since shown contrition - something Mixon has not done.

I'm not taking the absolute position that Mixon won't be drafted, but it would not surprise me in the least if he weren't.  The guy is poison to even the most secure GM and organization.

That's simply not true.

http://www.cnn.com/videos/sports/2016/12/23/joe-mixon-apology-woman-punch-university-of-oklahoma-bts.kfor

[SIZE=18pt]An emotional Joe Mixon apologizes for assault[/SIZE]






https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2016/12/23/oklahomas-joe-mixon-apologizes-takes-full-responsibility-for-hitting-woman-in-2014/

Oklahoma Sooners running back Joe Mixon apologized on Friday for punching a woman who fell toward a table and broke multiple bones in her face.

“I take full responsibility for what happened,” the 20-year-old said in a Friday news conference, addressing the July 2014 incident for the first time publicly since video of his actions was released last week. “It’s never okay to hit a woman. Never. I’ll preach that to anybody.”

Mixon addressed the woman, Amelia Molitor, directly, before apologizing to Sooners Coach Bob Stoops, university president David Boren, athletic director Joe Castiglione, his teammates and family.

“I’m just here to apologize to Ms. Molitor,” Mixon said before adding, “I let a lot of people down. . . . I’m here to apologize to everyone affected.”

Rice is also a poor example.  He looked washed up the two years prior to getting released.  There was little perceived upside to bringing him in, and thus the risk/reward ratio was skewed against him.  Mixon's worth the risk because he might end up being a great player.  Rice's great days were way, way behind him.

 

[spider321]

Now let's step back a little. Teams gave a turd like Richardson multiple chances.  Rice was only 28 at the time, and while his last season was poor, he was also a guy who had strung together multiple ProBowl quality seasons right up to a year before his last.  

Teams wouldn't even bring him in to talk or try out when the only cost likely would have been a vet minimum contract.  A lot of teams were trying out and signing guys with a lot less history or talent than Rice in the meantime.

Again, just adding a little different perspective given the nature of the transgression and how deeply it impacts the thinking of NFL management.  There is a clear history lesson here that ought to be taken into account and given due weight.  Some GM is going to have to pull the trigger on that draft pick and then be prepared to be held accountable for it when the backlash of negative publicity and protesting hits.

Rice was already washed up.

You're comparing apples and orangutans.

 

[Spike]

It could be nothing, as many of these tales prove to be BS.  But he claims to have just run a 4.30 lazer timed.  

I'm just trying to think of the last blisteringly fast WR who amounted to a lot (on a consistent basis) in FF.  DeSean Jackson?  My point being how many of these fast dudes do we get who wash out?

 

[Bronco Billy]

That's simply not true.

http://www.cnn.com/videos/sports/2016/12/23/joe-mixon-apology-woman-punch-university-of-oklahoma-bts.kfor

[SIZE=18pt]An emotional Joe Mixon apologizes for assault[/SIZE]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2016/12/23/oklahomas-joe-mixon-apologizes-takes-full-responsibility-for-hitting-woman-in-2014/

Oklahoma Sooners running back Joe Mixon apologized on Friday for punching a woman who fell toward a table and broke multiple bones in her face.

“I take full responsibility for what happened,” the 20-year-old said in a Friday news conference, addressing the July 2014 incident for the first time publicly since video of his actions was released last week. “It’s never okay to hit a woman. Never. I’ll preach that to anybody.”

Mixon addressed the woman, Amelia Molitor, directly, before apologizing to Sooners Coach Bob Stoops, university president David Boren, athletic director Joe Castiglione, his teammates and family.

“I’m just here to apologize to Ms. Molitor,” Mixon said before adding, “I let a lot of people down. . . . I’m here to apologize to everyone affected.”

Rice is also a poor example.  He looked washed up the two years prior to getting released.  There was little perceived upside to bringing him in, and thus the risk/reward ratio was skewed against him.  Mixon's worth the risk because he might end up being a great player.  Rice's great days were way, way behind him.

That happened in late December of 2016 right after his attorneys released the video.  Damage control is not contrition.

.

 

[Hankmoody]

That happened in 2016 after his attorneys released the video.  Damage control is not contrition.

Mixon said he wanted to address the issue earlier, but his legal team advised him not to.

“Honestly, it really don’t matter what she did,” he said during the 26-minute session. “It’s all on me the reason why we’re in this position right now. I take full responsibility of what happened that night. It’s never OK to hit a woman. Never. I will preach to anybody. It’s never OK. Hopefully to people around the world will learn from my mistake. I’m willing to teach.”

"Everyday I gotta live with it, gotta sleep with it," he said. "It haunts me to this day. If I could take it all back I would."

Mixon: "If I could go back, I would do whatever I could to change the outcome of that situation. Definitely would have walked or ran away."

Joe Mixon said he's "definitely" willing to speak to Domestic Violence advocacy groups as well as to kids to learn from his mistakes.

“My mother, she worked hard, and I disappointed her,” he said. “She’s my queen, and I apologize to you, mom.”

Those comments are way beyond boilerplate damage control.  He could have read a 60 second statement, instead he talked for 26 minutes. 

 

[petekrum]

What I find amusing is the perception that whoever takes him is gonna be buried by a firestorm of dissent from their fan base. There will be the obligatory protest of a hundred or so people week one, an anti Mixon article or two in the paper, and as soon as he breaks off a big run, this will be mostly forgotten.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I'm just trying to think of the last blisteringly fast WR who amounted to a lot (on a consistent basis) in FF.  DeSean Jackson?  My point being how many of these fast dudes do we get who wash out?

Neeeld to be big and fast....not track speed fast...but fast enuff......ty hilton comes to mind as well

 

[bostonfred]

What I find amusing is the perception that whoever takes him is gonna be buried by a firestorm of dissent from their fan base. There will be the obligatory protest of a hundred or so people week one, an anti Mixon article or two in the paper, and as soon as he breaks off a big run, this will be mostly forgotten.

Sad but probably true

 

[Ilov80s]

Karlos train about to turn to a rocket. Harmon just released his Reception Perception on him. Harmon said Karlos is his favorite WR in the draft. The kid is likely to torch the combine. If he comes in at the 191 LA Tech has him listed at, watch the f out.

 

[Borden]

Just wanted to bump this thread. I like seeing everyone's rankings. 

 

[Borden]

RB:

1 Fournette 

2 Mixon

3 Cook

4 McCaffery

5 Foreman

6 Carson

7 Gallman

8 Kamara

9 Hood

10 Perine

11 J Williams

12 Mack

13 Brian Hill

WR

1 Williams

2 Davis

3 JuJu

4 Ross

5 Jones

6 Westbrook

7 Godwin

8 Henderson

9 Samuel

10 Kupp

11 Taylor

12 Cannon

I don't have strong arguments for my choices on the back half of each list. Just wanted to get some sort of order and work from there. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Rough rankings

RB

Mixon

McCaffrey

Cook 

Fournette 

Alvin Kamara

Joe Williams (love the talent, but red flags are serious)

D'onte Foreman

Marlon Mack

Jeremy McNichols

James Connor

WR

Corey Davis

Mike Williams

John Ross

Chris Godwin

Carlos Henderson

JJ Smith

Taywan Taylor

Josh Malone 

Ishmael Zamora

Zay Jones 

ETA: No clue whether Samuels is a WR or RB but I like him more that about half the guys on the list

ETA2: The more I listen to people I respect, the more and more I am disliking Mike Williams. I basically have him at 2 be default now. That could change 

 

[Dan Hindery]

Here's my personal top 50 as of today. I put where I had them ranked in February pre-combine after the name


1


Fournette, Leonard


1


2


Mixon, Joe


5


3


Davis, Corey


4


4


Cook, Dalvin


2


5


Williams, Mike


3


6


McCaffrey, Christian


7


7


Ross, John


6


8


Howard, OJ


12


9


Godwin, Chris


17


10


Kamara, Alvin


9


11


Engram, Evan


16


12


Smith-Schuster, Juju


13


13


Foreman, D'onta


8


14


Samuel, Curtis


18


15


Njoku, David


15


16


Henderson, Carlos


11


17


Jones, Zay


19


18


McNichols, Jeremy


28


19


Hunt, Kareem


10


20


Perine, Samaje


21


21


Ford, Isaiah


14


22


Mack, Marlon


22


23


Darboh, Amara


37


24


Reynolds, Josh


38


25


Kupp, Cooper


23


26


Dupre, Malachi


26


27


Taylor, Taywan


30


28


Butt, Jake


32


29


Hansen, Chad


20


30


Gallman, Wayne


27


31


Cannon, KD


33


32


Williams, Jamaal


24


33


Hodges, Bucky


31


34


Watson, Deshaun


29


35


Mahomes, Patrick


36


36


Trubisky, Mitch


46


37


Leggett, Jordan


40


38


Stewart, Ardarius


34


39


Malone, Josh


51


40


Chesson, Jehu


52


41


Brown, Noah


39


42


Everett, Gerald


41


43


Clement, Corey


42


44


Kizer, DeShone


35


45


Westbrook, Dede


25


46


Hill, Brian


50


47


Hood, Elijah


43


48


McGuire, Elijah


44


49


Conner, James


45


50


Sprinkle, Jeremy


47

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Here's my personal top 50 as of today. I put where I had them ranked in February pre-combine after the name


1


Fournette, Leonard


1


2


Mixon, Joe


5


3


Davis, Corey


4


4


Cook, Dalvin


2


5


Williams, Mike


3


6


McCaffrey, Christian


7


7


Ross, John


6


8


Howard, OJ


12


9


Godwin, Chris


17


10


Kamara, Alvin


9


11


Engram, Evan


16


12


Smith-Schuster, Juju


13


13


Foreman, D'onta


8


14


Samuel, Curtis


18


15


Njoku, David


15


16


Henderson, Carlos


11


17


Jones, Zay


19


18


McNichols, Jeremy


28


19


Hunt, Kareem


10


20


Perine, Samaje


21


21


Ford, Isaiah


14


22


Mack, Marlon


22


23


Darboh, Amara


37


24


Reynolds, Josh


38


25


Kupp, Cooper


23


26


Dupre, Malachi


26


27


Taylor, Taywan


30


28


Butt, Jake


32


29


Hansen, Chad


20


30


Gallman, Wayne


27


31


Cannon, KD


33


32


Williams, Jamaal


24


33


Hodges, Bucky


31


34


Watson, Deshaun


29


35


Mahomes, Patrick


36


36


Trubisky, Mitch


46


37


Leggett, Jordan


40


38


Stewart, Ardarius


34


39


Malone, Josh


51


40


Chesson, Jehu


52


41


Brown, Noah


39


42


Everett, Gerald


41


43


Clement, Corey


42


44


Kizer, DeShone


35


45


Westbrook, Dede


25


46


Hill, Brian


50


47


Hood, Elijah


43


48


McGuire, Elijah


44


49


Conner, James


45


50


Sprinkle, Jeremy


47

Good list, thanks for sharing.

One thing that I found interesting was that Foreman missed the combine then bounced back with an impressive pro day yet he dropped 5 spots.  Meanwhile Davis missed the combine and also missed his pro day yet he went up a spot since then.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

Thanks for taking the time!

This is where I'm at right now, 1PPR with TE premium:

1. Corey Davis
   
2. Christian McCaffrey
   
3. Dalvin Cook
   
4. Leonard Fournette
   
5. Mike Williams
   
6. John Ross
   
7. David Njoku
   

I'm trying to refine my top 12 using TE premium and tiered PPR (1.5, 1, .75 - TE, WR, RB).  Here's where I'm at right now and I'm not settled on anything other than my top 2.


Christian McCaffrey


Corey Davis


Joe Mixon


Bucky Hodges


David Njoku


Evan Engram


OJ Howard


Leonard Fournette


Mike Williams


Dalvin Cook


John Ross


Alvin Kamara

 

[Dan Hindery]

Good list, thanks for sharing.

One thing that I found interesting was that Foreman missed the combine then bounced back with an impressive pro day yet he dropped 5 spots.  Meanwhile Davis missed the combine and also missed his pro day yet he went up a spot since then.

Yeah, combo of 2 things for me on why the ranking changed for those two.

1. The players around them. My Davis opinion has stayed basically the same. But both Williams and Cook fell a little for me after running slower than expected (and Cook just general poor numbers (esp. change of direction) and growing character concerns). So Davis moved past those 2 guys by doing nothing (and fell behind Mixon for me). Opposite for Foreman who got jumped by some guys who ran faster than I thought they would (Godwin, the top 3 TEs, etc.). 

2. Just hearing more info and expert opinions in addition to testing numbers. I was higher than average on Foreman early because I had heard multiple times from Alex Dunlap (Texas writer) that he was going to run 4.4ish and believed him. So that 4.4 time was already kind of baked into Foreman's early high ranking for me. When his fast times didn't move the needle with him for people smarter than me, I took that into account and dropped him a little. Most experts seem to have Kamara as the clear 5th RB with a drop off to the next tier.

 

[msudaisy26]

Crowell is the most recent off-field-issued running back to Mixon. I was taking Crowell in the 1.12-2.4 range in rookie drafts that year, and expect Mixon to be in that #10-#16 range when the dust settles, even if he is UDFA. There will always be a couple owners in every league to chase the upside. 

Mixon will be drafted, unless he has an incident between now and draft day. I am being cautious here, but I bet Mixon's average rookie draft ADP in all leagues that aren't 2qb/te premium scoring would be under 1.08.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Mixon will be drafted, unless he has an incident between now and draft day. I am being cautious here, but I bet Mixon's average rookie draft ADP in all leagues that aren't 2qb/te premium scoring would be under 1.08.

Way way under.

That said the post you're quoting was from February and Mixon's predicted draft stock and perceived value have skyrocketed since then.

 

[Zyphros]

Well there wasn't a thread that I could find so I figured I'd kick it off.  I only have a top25 as of this writing and I haven't finished watching some guys but here's my list.  My list is based on 1QB/3RB/3WR/2TE .5ppr.  Let me know who pops and who doesn't cause I'd like to hear perspectives on guys I might be too high/low on.  Hopefully others post theirs as well and we can get a good discussion going.  

1.  Leonard Fournette

2.  Corey Davis

3.  Dalvin Cook

4.  JuJu Schuster-Smith

5.  Christian McCaffrey

6.  Joe Mixon (Totally dependent on where/if he gets drafted)

7.  OJ Howard

8.  Mike Williams

9.  David Njoku

10.  Dede Westbrook

11.  Cooper Kupp

12.  Ardarius Stewart

13.  Evan Engram

14.  Samaje Perine

15.  Wayne Gallman

16.  John Ross

17.  Zay Jones

18.  Jamaal Williams

19.  D'Onte Foreman

20.  Jake Butt

21.  Travin Dural

22.  Kareem Hunt

23.  Elijah McGuire

24.  Artavis Scott

25.  Amba Etta-Tawo

My favorites in this class right now are Corey Davis, Cooper Kupp, Ardarius Stewart, and Kareem Hunt out of this list.  

Well it's time to update.  I have a top40 but as usual there's just a lot of tinkering going on so I'm just going to post a top25 again for comparisons sake.  I am pretty set in stone for my top15 so I added a little bit of a note for each of those guys, but after 15 I'm a little less certain.  Anyways here we go.

1.  Corey Davis - My favorite guy this year, highest ceiling

2.  Leonard Fournette - Still not as high on him as some others, but he's growing on me every day and draft position will tell me #1 or #2 is where I will put him

3.  Christian McCaffrey - My favorite RB.  Underappreciated effort, leg drive, and vision and very versatile.  Highest floor of all the RB's IMO.

4.  OJ Howard - Reminder I play 2TE so #4 it is.  

5.  Joe Mixon - The best pure talent RB this year.  I get the feeling he's going to go relatively high in the NFL draft so I'm comfortable putting him here.

6.  JuJu Smith-Schuster - He's a more versatile Mike Williams from what I've seen and I like versatile players.

7.  Deshaun Watson -  Reminder that I play 2QB (although 10 team), so I'm likely a little lower than most about him.

8.  Mike Williams - Most of the stats I've seen about him are impressive and they're putting questions in my mind, I just don't see it on the field of a gamechanger.

9.  David Njoku - Highest ceiling TE?  Depends on landing spot for me and if they feature the TE. 

10.  Dalvin Cook - Not a fan of his, according to others he's amazing and productive and again he's a guy I just don't see as a guy to rely on.

11.  D'Onte Foreman - If he learns to use his size some more, he could be the best RB in this draft class.  I get the feeling it was the Texas scheme that didn't put him in situations to use his size.  

12.  Mitchell Trubisky - Again 2QB but I don't have a need to draft a QB so I'm likely a little a lower than most

13.  Cooper Kupp - I'm banking on production here, passes the old fashioned eye test for me

14.  Evan Engram - Athleticism, and ceiling, just like Njoku not exactly sure how to compare them, just going off projected draft slot honestly.

15.  Samaje Perine - Consistent and strong, looks like a solid NFL back.  This is the spot where I might start putting some super high ceiling guys here and bump these guys down.  

16.  Carlos Henderson

17.  Zay Jones

18.  John Ross

19.  Ardarius Stewart

20.  Wayne Gallman

21.  Alvin Kamara

22.  Dede Westbrook

23.  Chris Godwin

24.  Curtis Samuel

25.  James Connor

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Kinda down on Godwin and Kamara.

 

[Ilov80s]

My issue with Foreman is that he might as well be 210 with the way he runs, he tries to be quick and most of his big runs are a result of huge lanes.

 

[steelers1080]

That happened in late December of 2016 right after his attorneys released the video.  Damage control is not contrition..

True, but didn't the case just finish getting resolved?  Usually clients are told not to say anything publicly until after everything is settled. If he admitted guilt earlier it could have affected proceedings. 

 

[Bronco Billy]

True, but didn't the case just finish getting resolved?  Usually clients are told not to say anything publicly until after everything is settled. If he admitted guilt earlier it could have affected proceedings. 

The plea deal on the case was reached on October 30, 2014.

This was Mixon's team getting out in front of something that was bound to be raised.  Very well choreographed, including Mixon's statement.

ETA - and there are January 2017 quotes from Mixon admitting the punch but continuing to blame the woman for instigating and escalating the situation.

.

 

[Zyphros]

Kinda down on Godwin and Kamara.

Godwin screams workout warrior.  When I watch him, I feel underwhelmed with what he does.  He's ok at some things, but then when there are opportunities to make big plays for his team he chokes rather than fights through and makes a play.  He's built like an NFL receiver and his production matches relatively well, but that underwhelming feeling constantly saying "oh he missed that catch" or something along those lines makes me question him a lot.  

Kamara on the other hand, I just haven't watched enough of him to form a really solid viewpoint on him.  I've seen about 3 games worth and the opinions I do have are pretty good, however it's not a full picture.  He's a guy I have a hard time projecting his role or finding a good comp and picturing what he will become.  For the easiest comparison there's no question what Fournette's work can be projected to.  He's a 20 touches a game guy without question and it's fairly easy to see that.  Whether he's good at that workload is up for debate, but what he is isn't in dispute.  To put it as simply as I can, I just don't have a good grasp on what Kamara will be in the NFL.

 

[Ilov80s]

Godwin screams workout warrior.  When I watch him, I feel underwhelmed with what he does.  He's ok at some things, but then when there are opportunities to make big plays for his team he chokes rather than fights through and makes a play.  He's built like an NFL receiver and his production matches relatively well, but that underwhelming feeling constantly saying "oh he missed that catch" or something along those lines makes me question him a lot.  

Interesting, Matt Harmon's data  said Godwin was has the best contested catch % of any rookie WR he's covered. 

 

[Zyphros]

Interesting, Matt Harmon's data  said Godwin was has the best contested catch % of any rookie WR he's covered. 

I've seen that data too and it just makes me wonder about what I'm seeing.  Sure the ones I've seen are incredibly tough catches but I went into watching him with Matt Harmon's analysis in mind and it just wasn't the same as what I'd expect.

 

[Ilov80s]

I've seen that data too and it just makes me wonder about what I'm seeing.  Sure the ones I've seen are incredibly tough catches but I went into watching him with Matt Harmon's analysis in mind and it just wasn't the same as what I'd expect.

I don't see anything all that special either, but a lot of analysts I respect are excited about him so I'm on board.

 

[Nero]

My issue with Foreman is that he might as well be 210 with the way he runs, he tries to be quick and most of his big runs are a result of huge lanes.

The reason I like Foreman is he runs like he is 210, but he is 235.

 

[Ilov80s]

The reason I like Foreman is he runs like he is 210, but he is 235.

Yeah, he has great speed and that spread Texas offense gave him tons of wide lane to race through. I'm watching the game vs ND right now and he is impressing with me with power and some cutting. I might need to move him up a bit. 

 

[Borden]

Yeah, he has great speed and that spread Texas offense gave him tons of wide lane to race through. I'm watching the game vs ND right now and he is impressing with me with power and some cutting. I might need to move him up a bit. 

Some else will be able to speak better about this but Texas ran a bunch of plays from their "18 wheeler" package that was a lot of big guys block and their QB(s) got a decent amount of carries too. They also switched QBs during games. I don't know much about it just remember hearing some strange things going on with their offense. 

I don't really know what this has to do with anything but maybe gives you something extra to look for. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Some else will be able to speak better about this but Texas ran a bunch of plays from their "18 wheeler" package that was a lot of big guys block and their QB(s) got a decent amount of carries too. They also switched QBs during games. I don't know much about it just remember hearing some strange things going on with their offense. 

I don't really know what this has to do with anything but maybe gives you something extra to look for. 

Thanks, I think I saw that 18 Wheeler thing. They have a lot of typical spread, but then they run out of some formations that like a pistol but with 6 OL, a FB, a 240 pound QB and Foreman. They seemed to have used it a lot against ND. It's definitely an atypical set-up that could also prop up his stats. The the hardest part of evaluating Foreman is that Texas does almost nothing that we can expect an NFL team to do. It's hard to know for sure how he translates. 

 

[Biabreakable]

When I am ranking rookie players the main thing I am focused on is upside. So I tier the rookie players into 3 categories. Tier one are the players that I can see becoming top 12 at their position in their first 3 seasons. Tier two players I see having the upside for a top 13-24 finish at their positions, but not likely top 12. Tier three players I consider to have top 25-36 upside at their position, but not likely top 24 or better. 

The tier a player is in pre NFL draft can be affected by draft position or team fit post NFL draft. If a player is drafted higher than I expect, then this can cause them to go up a tier and likewise if they are drafted lower than expected, that could cause them to go down a tier. Team fit has to do with their supporting cast and expected role for the player with their new team, the other players they will be competing against for opportunities. Team fit can cause a player to go up or down a tier based on how I see that player fitting in there.

Tier two players are split into two categories. 2a and 2b.

2a Players are those who could move to tier one post NFL draft. Low draft position/fit will not cause these players to fall to tier 3. 2b Players and those who would not move to tier one due to high draft position/team fit. They could fall to tier 3 with low draft position/poor team fit. 

Tier three players can move up to tier two post NFL draft but not tier one. That being said, I had Jordan Howard as a tier 3 RB last season, so obviously my guesses on this can be very wrong. I try anyways.

Players listed as watch list are players who interest me but I haven't watched yet. I think this list is shorter than what I usually have, so looking for suggestions of other players to watch. 

Tier One 

Corey Davis
Dalvin Cook
Christian McCaffrey
Leonard Fournette
Evan Engram
OJ Howard
David Njoku

Tier Two 

2a

Joe Mixon
John Ross
Zay Jones
Samaje Perine
D'Onta Foreman
Curtis Samuel

2b 

Mike Williams
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Alvin Kamara
Chris Godwin
Gerald Everett
Kareem Hunt
Taywan Taylor
Cooper Kupp
Marlon Mack

Tier three 

Carlos Henderson
Bucky Hodges
Jeremy McNichols
Aaron Jones
Josh Reynolds
Wayne Gallman
Dede Westbrook
Ardarious Stewart
Jamal Williams
George Kittle
Jordan Leggett
Isaiah Ford
Jake Butt
Amba Etta-Tawo
Elijah Hood
Corey Clement

Watch list

Tarik Cohen
Jalen Robinette
Michael Roberts
KD Cannon
Chad Hanson
Ishmael Zamora
Josh Malone
Malachai Dupree
Austin Carr
Brian Hill
Donnell Pumphrey
Joe Williams

 

[bostonfred]

When I am ranking rookie players the main thing I am focused on is upside. So I tier the rookie players into 3 categories. Tier one are the players that I can see becoming top 12 at their position in their first 3 seasons. Tier two players I see having the upside for a top 13-24 finish at their positions, but not likely top 12. Tier three players I consider to have top 25-36 upside at their position, but not likely top 24 or better. 

The tier a player is in pre NFL draft can be affected by draft position or team fit post NFL draft. If a player is drafted higher than I expect, then this can cause them to go up a tier and likewise if they are drafted lower than expected, that could cause them to go down a tier. Team fit has to do with their supporting cast and expected role for the player with their new team, the other players they will be competing against for opportunities. Team fit can cause a player to go up or down a tier based on how I see that player fitting in there.

Tier two players are split into two categories. 2a and 2b.

2a Players are those who could move to tier one post NFL draft. Low draft position/fit will not cause these players to fall to tier 3. 2b Players and those who would not move to tier one due to high draft position/team fit. They could fall to tier 3 with low draft position/poor team fit. 

Tier three players can move up to tier two post NFL draft but not tier one. That being said, I had Jordan Howard as a tier 3 RB last season, so obviously my guesses on this can be very wrong. I try anyways.

Players listed as watch list are players who interest me but I haven't watched yet. I think this list is shorter than what I usually have, so looking for suggestions of other players to watch. 

This is really interesting.  I have really changed how i rank players a lot and i do it very differently from you but I think you do a really good job and would like to learn your thought process too.

Here's what i do. Before the draft, I try to categorize players into what kind of player I think they will be if they went to a neutral situation. Then I adjust really heavily based in situation.  That doesn't mean I pick situation over talent, it means I try to understand what kind of talent they are and what kind of situation they're likely to be in for the next several years and how that will affect their career.  

A couple examples 

Fournette - transcendent player.  I'd take him first overall anywhere he ended up.

Perine - if you hand him the keys he might be really good, but if a team with a bad o line and a good complimentary back takes him, his career may be relegated to goal line and short yardage work. How would you feel about him in Oakland or Green Bay vs Pittsburgh or Arizona. 

At receiver I think you're right to move Mike Williams down to tier 2. I would put Davis there too.  I like all of them, but there's no Randy Moss in this draft.   I feel like I should be higher on Davis and Williams but I'm just not.  If they end up in great passing offenses I might change my tune but sight unseen I'm not convinced they're much better fantasy prospects than ross and juju. Sell me on Williams being better than juju.  4.52 vs 4.54. Both physical, both did 15 reps and had a 32.5 inch vertical.  Juju has a little bigger hands and arms and Williams jumped one inch further in the broad jump.  Williams was arguably the top receiving prospect in the country this year, Juju was last year and got hurt this year.Sell me on Davis vs ross. Davis dominated poor competition, ross historically dominated everyone ever at the combine. Davis didn't even run the 40, but he looks like he would have done well.  Ross is faster and bigger than Will Fuller or DeSean Jackson and let's not forget, the last guy to set a combine record for the 40 ran for 2000 yards.  

I think Zay belongs in the conversation but you have him a bit too high for me.  I think this season was him showing he has all the desire to be great in the world, and I have no doubt he is good enough to dominate bad competition.  But he was going to a lot of bread and butter stuff to manufacture record setting numbers.  He's got good speed and good hands but he's also got some work to do to beat top corners. 

But again all this will change with landing spot.  I keep hearing how the best landing spot would be Philly where they just brought in a ton of free agents or Baltimore so you can play with Joe Flacco. Yuck.  That's the worst part of this draft class imo- the depth at receiver from all these recent drafts means that there's a lot of good teams that don't need immediate help at wr1. 

Right now I would probably put John Ross 4th but if he went to Green Bay he would be Jordy Nelson 2.0 and I'd take him first out of this receiver class without blinking. 

So I think to me, the purpose of pre draft rankings is to say is there anyone so good that you don't care where they get drafted?  And the answer for me is Fournette, and maybe Howard and Engram.  That's about it.  Cook and mccaffrey and njoku are close and you're higher on Davis than i am so maybe we're doing the same thing. Last draft I'd have put Elliott, Henry and Coleman in this group. 

Then tier 2 for me isn't about who could be a top 12 fantasy receiver, but who i would be excited to add to my team if they went to a good landing spot.  It's why I moved Michael Thomas and Hunter Henry way up last draft after the nfl draft but also why i took Paul Perkins ahead of Jordan Howard (although I'm not giving up on Perkins yet).

You have similar guys in your tier two to mine but when you put Cooper Kupp in the same tier as juju and Williams I feel like you're saying a good slot receiver in a good team is as good for fantasy as a good x receiver on a good team, and that's just not true for me.  I like Kupp but he's a clear tier down for me. 

 

[Biabreakable]

Fred thanks for the kind comments and I think I agree with you on some of these for example Cooper Kupp perhaps not being worthy of being considered a tier two player. From what I have seen of Kupp he could be very good in the right situation, but he likely isn't at the same level as Mike Williams. When I think about it like that, it seems wrong and I will likely change it.

My process is not scientific at all. I do look at the players college stats prior to watching the players games and these are the two main things that I consider in the evaluation. So players who have had good college numbers, and have done so repeatedly, get a bit of a bump for me compared to players who only have one good college season. Pretty much the same way I look at pro players. So from this perspective players like Corey Davis, Zay Jones Cooper Kupp have an advantage over the other WR who to me only had one good season. I like consistency from a player.

When you are watching a player, I think it helps me to see one who is getting more opportunity than watching a player who is only making a few big plays and not otherwise involved in the game. Which is the case for a lot of these WR. So the WR who are getting a lot more opportunities, this gives me more opportunity to see them make plays. I do not get very excited about players who disappear from the game plan aside from a couple of plays a game.

I have been using this tier system now since 2014. So I am hopeful that using the same guidelines every year will help improve my rankings. That is a goal I have tried to accomplish.

Another goal is to make the rankings relevant to fantasy football. I see a lot of rankings of college football players, but most of them are not intended for fantasy football. Most of those are geared towards other things, such as how high they will be drafted. While there may be some similarities, it isn't the same thing. For example I would agree that OJ Howard is the best TE of this draft class. That does not mean he is best TE for fantasy football though. In my opinion Engram is more likely to get opportunity as a receiver, and may develop as a receiving option quicker than the other TE in this draft class. If blocking mattered for fantasy, sure give me Howard, but it doesn't, 

Using these guidelines gives me a structure to follow and hopefully communicate that perspective in a way that is easy to understand.  It helps me with self scouting my rankings as well. I look back at 2013 rankings and I think doing it this way is a big improvement over just one long list without any tiers.

I would still prefer to do a more rigorous process of charting and grading. That would be the next step for me in this process, but I haven't gotten to that point yet. I just watch the players and try to imagine what they are doing in college working at the pro level or not. It is more of a gut thing, or just looking for an it factor from the player for me. It is pretty subjective.

I don't want to sell you or anyone on any particular player. I want people to decide for themselves.

Corey Davis to me is the only WR who I can see being a WR one for their NFL team without knowing the destination. This is based on evaluation of the college stats and watching him play. He gets open in ways that I think will be effective at the NFL level. So the talk about him facing poor competition does not resonate with me. He has such a wide margin on a lot of his routes that I can see how better defenders will be closer, but still not be able to cover him.

John Ross is a player that I l can see being similar to Brandin Cooks if he reaches his full potential. I still liked Cooks a lot more as a prospect. Ross really only has one good season.  The injury stuff with him makes me nervous. The speed is no joke though and so I have him ranked a bit higher than I am actually comfortable with based on anticipated high draft position. It would take a really nice fit where I was sure Ross would be used as more than just a deep threat for me to move Ross to a tier one prospect. Due to his injury history, teams may not want to do that with him, instead just using him for what he does best.

Green Bay takes Ross in the first round and then yeah maybe I would need to move him up to tier one.

I will likely change my mind quite a few times about this. I just wanted to put something down for feedback. Thanks  I will sleep on it, but I think you may be right about moving Kupp down to tier 3. I do like his consistency though. If he were drafted by Green Bay for example? That would make me pretty excited about him.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

 

[Spike]

I've seen that data too and it just makes me wonder about what I'm seeing.  Sure the ones I've seen are incredibly tough catches but I went into watching him with Matt Harmon's analysis in mind and it just wasn't the same as what I'd expect.

Maybe it's because you went into watching him with Matt Harmon's analysis in mind?

Sort of like going to a movie purported to be superb and, because of that, it doesn't quite live up to it in your mind?

 

[bostonfred]

My process is not scientific at all.

Corey Davis to me is the only WR who I can see being a WR one for their NFL team without knowing the destination.

This is kind of what I'm getting at for the science of it.  Pre draft rankings can't be "scientific", really  - you can easily say who you would draft first if you were an nfl team or who you hope drafts your favorite player in the class but a huge part of predicting a running back's success is knowing what kind of role he will have and a huge part of predicting how well a receiver will do is knowing who is throwing to him.

I think this stage is more about figuring out what kind of player the guy is and how good he really is and how he's perceived by the nfl, then reevaluating when we get a huge information dump two weeks from now. 

If the Colts or packers somehow draft Fournette, mccaffrey or Mixon, they'd each arguably be 1.1. So we like to say they're in the same tier

I don't think Chicago is drafting a running back this year, but let's say they do.  

If they drafted mccaffrey, i would immediately be thinking, wow, that probably hurts Howard, but I bet McCaffery is the primary receiving back and gets plenty of opportunities.  The team sucks but he's probably going to be a good rb2 in ppr leagues. 

If they drafted Mixon I'd be thinking hmm I thought they liked Howard. I wonder what this split is going to be like. 

If they drafted Fournette, I'd be like I guess Howard just lost his job. 

So we can call Fournette, mccaffrey and Mixon tier one, but I think Fournette is a clear tier up right now.  He's just straight up going to be a feature back.  The other guys might be tier 1a if you want, but the Chicago test is a good way to decide where your tier really breaks.  

And if the Colts drafted Mixon, you'd say wow, ok, good bye gore. But if they drafted Kareem hunt, you might not be so sure. Is he their rb or the future?  Is gore going to start the season?  Will they bring in a veteran to compete? That's a good indicator that they're in different tiers.  Using that test, where do you put perine? Foreman? 

 

[Zyphros]

Maybe it's because you went into watching him with Matt Harmon's analysis in mind?

Sort of like going to a movie purported to be superb and, because of that, it doesn't quite live up to it in your mind?

It very well could be that I had high expectations going into watching him.  I tried to get to as many people as I could before the combine but I couldn't get to them all.  Then the combine happens and all these articles come out about "professional evaluations" of prospects which gives me a new perspective of guys to take a look at, which becomes my 2nd list of prospects to watch.  And the guys I didn't get to pre-combine I can see how articles like Matt Harmon's are persuading me to maybe be more critical of guy going into watching him.  

 

[Hankmoody]

This is kind of what I'm getting at for the science of it.  Pre draft rankings can't be "scientific", really  - you can easily say who you would draft first if you were an nfl team or who you hope drafts your favorite player in the class but a huge part of predicting a running back's success is knowing what kind of role he will have and a huge part of predicting how well a receiver will do is knowing who is throwing to him.

I think this stage is more about figuring out what kind of player the guy is and how good he really is and how he's perceived by the nfl, then reevaluating when we get a huge information dump two weeks from now. 

If the Colts or packers somehow draft Fournette, mccaffrey or Mixon, they'd each arguably be 1.1. So we like to say they're in the same tier

I don't think Chicago is drafting a running back this year, but let's say they do.  

If they drafted mccaffrey, i would immediately be thinking, wow, that probably hurts Howard, but I bet McCaffery is the primary receiving back and gets plenty of opportunities.  The team sucks but he's probably going to be a good rb2 in ppr leagues. 

If they drafted Mixon I'd be thinking hmm I thought they liked Howard. I wonder what this split is going to be like. 

If they drafted Fournette, I'd be like I guess Howard just lost his job. 

So we can call Fournette, mccaffrey and Mixon tier one, but I think Fournette is a clear tier up right now.  He's just straight up going to be a feature back.  The other guys might be tier 1a if you want, but the Chicago test is a good way to decide where your tier really breaks.  

And if the Colts drafted Mixon, you'd say wow, ok, good bye gore. But if they drafted Kareem hunt, you might not be so sure. Is he their rb or the future?  Is gore going to start the season?  Will they bring in a veteran to compete? That's a good indicator that they're in different tiers.  Using that test, where do you put perine? Foreman? 

This sounds more like confirmation bias of perceived roles than a determination of talent.  Since Fournette has no (perceived) receiving role, then he MUST be being drafted to be a bellcow because there's no diversity in skillset from Howard.  But McCaffrey, with (perceived) strongest receiving skills must be a 3rd down specialist, and Mixon with (perceived) mixed receiving/running skills is up in the air.  I think the level of investment is far more indicative of their evaluation of talent level.  If they take one of these guys at 3 or in a trade-down scenario it's because they think they will be impact players however they decide to use him.

 

[Borden]

This sounds more like confirmation bias of perceived roles than a determination of talent.  Since Fournette has no (perceived) receiving role, then he MUST be being drafted to be a bellcow because there's no diversity in skillset from Howard.  But McCaffrey, with (perceived) strongest receiving skills must be a 3rd down specialist, and Mixon with (perceived) mixed receiving/running skills is up in the air.  I think the level of investment is far more indicative of their evaluation of talent level.  If they take one of these guys at 3 or in a trade-down scenario it's because they think they will be impact players however they decide to use him.

I understand the level of investment angle but that also has flaws because you're only getting 1 teams opinion if a player goes high. If they go lower there's other factors like scheme, current roster and other available draftees. So, putting too much weight on draft position might be a pitfall too. I'm only referring to the high end prospects though. 

I do agree with you about the perceived skills and scheme fits though. Which is why I think it's so important to do predraft rankings. For the "non elite" guys, I agree with you on the draft position angle. If a guy you like goes a round or two higher than is expected that's a very good sign.