Concept Coop's Dynasty Rankings (1 Viewer)

[fruity pebbles]

Nice job. Thanks for genetating discussion. I think someone like josh Dotson deserves to be ranked over people like keelan cole and paul Richardson. Doctson flashed and showed me something this year. 

Thing about Doctson is he was an old rookie coming in so he really needed to hit the ground running and he hasn't. Hes gonna be 26 already during the season this year and hes also likely losing his QB.

 

[menobrown]

Henry's backfield mate Murray is 30 and had a major down year then ended the season injured. The coach that started Murray over Henry is gone and Murray can be cut with no cap consequence this off season.  When Henry finally got forced into the lineup, he put up close to 400 yards and two touchdowns in his final 3 games including two playoff games.

Coleman also got his first opportunity to start this year. In two hands he had 155 yards and 3 touchdowns.  In the final 4 games of the regular season he rushed 34 times for 89 yards before a 10 for 79 rushing performance in the playoffs. 

However, Freeman is signed to a big contract extension and playing well at age 25 isn't likely to be cut or bumped from the starting job.  

So the first hurdle is for Coleman to continue to play well this year, the second is for him to actually leave the falcons, and the third is for him to land somewhere where he can play and play well.

With Henry, he has an immediate opportunity.  Even if Murray remains, Henry will have an opportunity to compete for the starting job.  Even if he becomes the 1a to Murray's 1b, that would be a substantial improvement.  I would be interested in seeing Henry's yards per carry on his first 5 carries vs carries 16-20 because I'd expect it to go up as he gets more.  I know we saw some late game big plays from Henry this year both rushing and receiving. 

So I see them as very different investments. Coleman is a lot like Michael Turner to me back when he was stuck behind Tomlinson - or Toby Gerhard.

.

Agree Henry has a chance to compete for the starting job but key is compete, I don't think he's going to be the bell cow and he'll have much stiffer comp than people think. I think he'll have major comp and I don't think his inability to pass Murray is on the coaching staff. He is a good big play guy, as is Coleman and it might be that both have been in roles best suited for them. I don't really think he gets better with more carries so much as I think he's better later in the game when the D is fatigued. In space with a head of steam he's a beast but I just don't think he's cut out to be the foundation of an NFL teams running attack. 

Coleman actually won the job as a rookie, started his first game and got 20 carries and then got hurt in week 2 and Freeman exploded .  But as a 1B he posted RB2 fantasy numbers which is obviously a lot more than Henry has done and IMO a bit disengenous to ignore that and focus on what he did a few weeks to end this season.

I like Coleman considerably more as a player and really the only difference I see is people are presuming Henry is the starter and Coleman has to wait a year to get a shot. I disagree on the former, agree with the later.

 

[menobrown]

Thing about Doctson is he was an old rookie coming in so he really needed to hit the ground running and he hasn't. Hes gonna be 26 already during the season this year and hes also likely losing his QB.

I did not think he separate well and was pretty inefficient on his targets.  Those last few games when they tried to feature him did the opposite of improving his stock to me.

I'd still take him over Cole and put him on par with Richardson without knowing his landing spot. I think when Richarsdon signs his FA contract people will be either surprised to just shocked how much money he's going to get.

 

[Slapdash]

The thing about Coleman is that he has ranked 20/22 in the last two seasons in PPR even without having the job.  So ranking him at 19 or higher seems right to me, if you think he is going to get a shot at a top job in the future.

 

[Concept Coop]

Nice list, Concept Coop!   Well done.

On the RB front, I don't understand Drake and Hyde in the top 20, while having Dion Lewis at 25.  I understand Lewis' value really hinges on where he signs....but if he resigns in NE, I think that he has to be a top 20 RB, despite his injury risks.

Also, what are your thoughts of ranking Alex Collins at 23?  Are you unsure that he will be the lead back for BAL in the near future?  Would have expected Collins to be in the top 20.

On the WR front, Landry's ranking hinges on him resigning in MIA.....if he signs elsewhere, he likely won't get the target volume to maintain an WR11 ranking.  WRs I think that are too low are Robert Woods and DT.  DT at 43 really stands out.  I understand he's a little older but if DEN can shore up their QB spot, DT could still produce top 30 numbers for the next few years.  I would probably rank him in the low 30s right now....probably swap him with Dez.  Otherwise your WR list is pretty good.

I really like Lewis, but this is as high as I can rank him, given his age (not that he's old) , injury history, and FA uncertainty.  I like NE for him, but PIT post-Bell is my dream spot for him. 

I'm not confident in my ranking of Collins.  I loved him in school, thought he looked awful in Seattle, and simply haven't watched a bunch of him this year.  He was awesome in the one Ravens game I recall watching front to back (@Pitt). As I really liked him in college, I'll be inclined to bump him if he looks good when I do dig in a bit.  

I'm not so sure Landry needs MIA.  I think any team likely to sign him will do so expecting to heavily utilize the slot.  While slot utilization is still hit-and-miss system to system, it's trending up.  I think there's a good chance MIA does make him a good offer, after his big season.  He's now put up huge target/rec numbers in two different systems, with two different staffs, and 2+ QBs.  I think Landry is really, really good. 

I think you're right about DT. 

Woods is a really tough guy for me to put a value on right now.  If the Rams do franchise Sammy - and it sounds like they want to - it means they intend to get him more involved.  That could come at the expense of Woods and/or Kupp.  I'm also fading the Rams offense as a whole.  I think it's a good spot; I think Goff is a good QB; but I'll need to see it twice before I'm ready to pencil them in the top 5 every year. If the offense does regress, and they do bring back Sammy, some of those weapons are going to go a bit hungry.  

 

[Concept Coop]

I'm pretty sure Gurley regresses at least a little next year. Taking the bold view that he won't be #1 overall 2 years in a row. Mainly because defenses will have a year of McVay to study, and because the Rams have the oldest offensive line in the NFL, and they were healthy all year. If they lose 1 or 2 of their O-linemen, they could be back closer to 2016 level of quality.

He had a great year, and is talented, but I don't think he finishes next year ranked as a top 3 dynasty RB. 

I also see some regression for the Rams and Gurley, but it doesn't impact my valuation of Gurley as a dynasty asset.  I don't need 25 PPG to justify the ranking, 20+ is perfectly fine.  

For the record, Zeke would also be T1 if not for the DV strike.  That's the reason for the tier break there. I like Zeke a tiny bit more as a player, but do wish the Cowboys would throw him the damn ball. 

 

[Concept Coop]

Nice job. Thanks for genetating discussion. I think someone like josh Dotson deserves to be ranked over people like keelan cole and paul Richardson. Doctson flashed and showed me something this year. 

Perhaps he belongs on the list, but I feel good about both Cole and Richardson over him. I feel like Doctson flashed in much the same way Richardson did, but less often and less spectacularly.  

I will say this: I didn't love Doctson coming out, haven't owned him anywhere, and didn't receive an offer with him this year.  That can cause a blind spot, as I haven't really gone out of my way to solidify my opinion of him, the way I have with other players, including both Cole and Richardson.

 

[Concept Coop]

Always appreciate these lists, thank you for putting your thoughts out there!

Here are a few items I noticed that I was curious about your thoughts on:

Davis/Williams/Ross were the top 3 WRs drafted last year.  All had a lost season, or close to it.  Yet, you seem to have dropped Ross much further than the others.  Curious on your reasoning there.  Ross being beneath a player like Curtis Samuel, who also missed a lot of time is particularly surprising.

I would have a hard time taking Kamara over Bell/DJ

Perine seems too high.  He really looked like just another guy when he got the workload.  I could see him taking the early down role in Washington next year, but hard to see him holding it for more than a year.  Thompson will be very involved and the rankings are PPR, so I just don't feel it

I had Ross ranked much lower than Williams and especially Davis coming into the season as well.  I think his NFL value was always higher than his fantasy value.  He wasn't drafted to ever be a #1 the way Davis and Williams were.  You do make a good point on Samuel and Ross.  My initial instinct, and what likely led to the ranking disparity, is that Ross came in with an injury flag and Samuel didn't.  But there was quite a gap in draft pedigree, and I am one to place value in that.  I'll give it some thought.  

I completely understand preferring Bell and DJ to Kamara.  I was on Kamara pretty early and own him in all 3 of my leagues.  I know I'm in the minority here.  I don't expect everyone to be as comfortable with him, but I'm sold and am acting on it.  

I don't love Perine either.  This ranking is based in large part on age and draft pedigree.  You could be right, but nothing below him stands out to me.  Perhaps Williams and/or Jones if you're sold on either guy, but I'm not, personally.  

 

[JPeso]

Drake is a guy I had on all of my team's heading in to year, dropped him due to short rosters, and luckily got him back in 5/6 leagues betting 1/3 of budget to get him when it was clear he could explode. Prior to his rookie year, I was drafting him with confidence in rookie drafts around 2.2-2.4 range wherever I could get him. Point being, I liked the talent. I viewed him as more of a PPR COP back a la Gio/Reggie rather than between the tackles 20 carry guy, in large part due to the fact we had not seen him in that type of role since he dominated in high school. Well, even I was surprised at how he faired this year, and my eyes tell me it was not a fluke. 

He deserves to be where Coop has him ranked, funny enough he is RB16 in my rankings too (we have a bit of difference in 1-15 but not much), the upside warrants it. In a PPR, I'm not dealing Drake for Hyde/Howard/Ingram/Ajayi/Perine/etc. types. I'd rather the guy who has shown he can be a 16-18 PPG guy, and pray during the draft they do not draft a back early. I know what a lot of those other guys are, but it's not a locked in RB1, which is what Drake typically was down the stretch. Ingram sure had a good year but I do not like him to repeat at quite that level. 

I am getting a ton of offers for Drake, but none of which are really that strong. Everyone price-checking to see if they can steal the guy. No thanks. 

 

[Stealthycat]

• JuJu Smith-Schuster - T4
  
•  
  

wow that's high 

 

[Concept Coop]

It seems more likely to me that Hurns is out and they keep one of Lee and AROB, i really dont think they are both not going to get re signed. Hurns however has a pretty big contract and from what i read in the Jags thread, he can be cut for free. IDK if that info influences your thoughts on that situation or not

I think the Jags are ready to rely on Cole and Dede as the 2/3 guys, so I agree with you.  I put their chances at signing both Lee and ARob at zero; that's a lot of money to spend on one position, in one off season, with all of the money they poured into the defense.  I haven't looked into Hurns' contract, but if they have an out, I would take it.

My dynasty ranking of Cole isn't particularly dependent on his 2018 redraft outlook.  As long as he's in line to be one of the top 3 options, I'm on board.  I'm willing to bet on him climbing up the depth chart/pecking order if need be. 

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

wow that's high 

Juju just turned 21..and is nasty. The one league i have him in everyone is asking for him as a throw in. Lol yeah right. 

 

[Concept Coop]

wow that's high 

It is.  Coincidentally, I have him ranked 14th, which is where he finished in my PPR league, per game.  I'm damn impressed by what he was able to do as a 20 YO (per 16: 66/1,050/8).  His per start numbers are even better.  He's in a great spot and I'm willing to bet on his talent. I certainly see potential for me to be overvaluing him the way folks overvalued Cooper, but feel good about the call today.  

 

[Raback]

Kamara is an interesting case.  I liked his talent and loved his situation going into last year so I felt he was underrated and ended up with him in a lot of leagues.  But if this is how some people view him I will be looking to move him in every league this offseason.  I expect him to remain a good fantasy player but I think he will settle more into the low RB1/high RB2 range and not the #3 dynasty RB you have him as.  

 

[Concept Coop]

Kamara is an interesting case.  I liked his talent and loved his situation going into last year so I felt he was underrated and ended up with him in a lot of leagues.  But if this is how some people view him I will be looking to move him in every league this offseason.  I expect him to remain a good fantasy player but I think he will settle more into the low RB1/high RB2 range and not the #3 dynasty RB you have him as.  

I'm in the minority valuing him this highly.  Hopefully you can find this value if you do decide to move him, but I think most have Bell/DJ solidly ahead of him, at least.  

He finished RB3 on the season, despite AP and the concussion game.  Why and where do you see him shedding 5+ PPG?

 

[Raback]

I'm in the minority valuing him this highly.  Hopefully you can find this value if you do decide to move him, but I think most have Bell/DJ solidly ahead of him, at least.  

He finished RB3 on the season, despite AP and the concussion game.  Why and where do you see him shedding 5+ PPG?

Well Saints RBs as a whole produced 50% more fantasy points than the average team last year.  Sure some of that is due to their offensive style, but I still feel like that overall production level is unsustainable and expect some regression.  I also feel like his TD numbers will regress a bit.  I just can’t value a RB who still has to share a backfield with Mark Ingram that highly.  

I look at the situation a bit like Kareem Hunt.  Early in the year people were going nuts for him and if you sold after the first month you could have got a ransom for him.  Now his value has dropped significantly.  He’s still an RB1 and holds good value but I doubt his value every approaches the level it was at to start the season.  That’s where I’m at with Kamara.

 

[Concept Coop]

Well Saints RBs as a whole produced 50% more fantasy points than the average team last year.  Sure some of that is due to their offensive style, but I still feel like that overall production level is unsustainable and expect some regression.  I also feel like his TD numbers will regress a bit.  I just can’t value a RB who still has to share a backfield with Mark Ingram that highly.  

I look at the situation a bit like Kareem Hunt.  Early in the year people were going nuts for him and if you sold after the first month you could have got a ransom for him.  Now his value has dropped significantly.  He’s still an RB1 and holds good value but I doubt his value every approaches the level it was at to start the season.  That’s where I’m at with Kamara.

Help me see where you're coming from by being a little more specific, if you don't mind. (And no worries at all if you do, or don't have the time.)

62% of Kamara's PPR production came out of the backfield.  Quite frankly, I hope the RB efficiency does come back down to earth, and the Saints pass a bit more.  I hope the Saints look more like the 2016 version.  I don't see how Kamara's value is at all tied to the running game efficiency matching 2017.  That's Ingram.  The more passing situations the Saints find themselves in, the more Kamara is on the field, the more targets he sees, the more points he scores.  

Here are Kamara's per game numbers.  Where specifically are you projecting a drop off?  7.5/45.5/0.5 and 5/52/0.3 

Let's cut his YPC by a full yard and cut his rushing TDs in half.  7.5/37.5/0.2 and 5/52/0.3 puts him at 16.95 PPG.  That's good for RB9 this year.  Adjust his numbers for the AP games and the concussion and he's well above 17 PPG.  

You say you can't value a RB who shares a backfield this highly.  What about a RB who finishes top 3 in scoring, wins ROY, and makes the pro bowl, all while sharing a backfield with Mark Ingram?  The kid is 5'11/215.  What do his numbers look like when Ingram is gone in a year? 

 

[Concept Coop]

Some have questioned what Kamara looks like outside of Payton's system.  In 3 years when Kamara is a FA, signing him will be an investment equivalent to drafting McCaffrey in the top 10.  Just like the Panthers did with McCaffrey, whoever signs Kamara is going to fundamentally adjust their system to highlight him.  As a Kamara owner, in a perfect world, he and Payton are together until Kamara retires at 47 YO.  But I still see Kamara/McCaffrey targets outside of Payton/Brees/NO.  

 

[Hankmoody]

Well Saints RBs as a whole produced 50% more fantasy points than the average team last year.  Sure some of that is due to their offensive style, but I still feel like that overall production level is unsustainable and expect some regression.  I also feel like his TD numbers will regress a bit.  I just can’t value a RB who still has to share a backfield with Mark Ingram that highly.  

I look at the situation a bit like Kareem Hunt.  Early in the year people were going nuts for him and if you sold after the first month you could have got a ransom for him.  Now his value has dropped significantly.  He’s still an RB1 and holds good value but I doubt his value every approaches the level it was at to start the season.  That’s where I’m at with Kamara.

Kamara gets a ton of non-RB touches though - slot type targets that came from Cooks' departure and Snead's falloff.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/teams/teampage-nor-2.php

2017
Thomas 147
Ginn 70
Kamara 101 (!)
Fleener 30
Ingram 71

2016
Thomas 121
Cooks 117
Snead 104
Fleener 82
Ingram 58
Cadet 54

The snap counts show very similar re-distribution.  This isn't just about NOS RB's being heavily used, it's about Kamara being used as a multi-tool guy.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Help me see where you're coming from by being a little more specific, if you don't mind. (And no worries at all if you do, or don't have the time.)

62% of Kamara's PPR production came out of the backfield.  Quite frankly, I hope the RB efficiency does come back down to earth, and the Saints pass a bit more.  I hope the Saints look more like the 2016 version.  I don't see how Kamara's value is at all tied to the running game efficiency matching 2017.  That's Ingram.  The more passing situations the Saints find themselves in, the more Kamara is on the field, the more targets he sees, the more points he scores.  

Here are Kamara's per game numbers.  Where specifically are you projecting a drop off?  7.5/45.5/0.5 and 5/52/0.3 

Let's cut his YPC by a full yard and cut his rushing TDs in half.  7.5/37.5/0.2 and 5/52/0.3 puts him at 16.95 PPG.  That's good for RB9 this year.  Adjust his numbers for the AP games and the concussion and he's well above 17 PPG.  

You say you can't value a RB who shares a backfield this highly.  What about a RB who finishes top 3 in scoring, wins ROY, and makes the pro bowl, all while sharing a backfield with Mark Ingram?  The kid is 5'11/215.  What do his numbers look like when Ingram is gone in a year? 

Any time people start down the "cut this number by X%" path, things kind of unwind.  That's not really how it works.  Guys drop off precipitously in categories where it might not have made sense to predict that large of a falloff.

Right off the bat there are a laundry list of things stick out with Kamara.

1)  Kamara had 81 catches this year.  19 RBs in NFL history have had 80+ catches in a season.  Only 4 of those 19 ever caught 80+ balls again in the rest of their career.  Only 2 of those 19 ever caught 80+ balls more than one more time the rest of their career.  Well over half of them saw their typical year end reception totals drop to HALF of that within a few years.

2) Kamara averaged 10.2 yards per reception last year, which I believe would be among the best (THE best?) in NFL history for a whole career.  Faulk and Sproles, probably the two best receiving backs we've seen, were 9.0 and 8.8 respectively.  Kamara is a good receiver out of the backfield but he isn't Marshall Faulk.  And even if he is, that number will still come down.

3) Kamara had 13 TDs on 201 touches this year, for a rate of one TD every 15 touches.  That is crazy unsustainable.  Ladainian Tomlinson, for instance, scored a TD every 37 touches.  Adrian Peterson once every 27 touches.  Sproles once every 23 touches.  Shaun Alexander, who was known for having a nose for the endzone like no one else was once every 22 touches.  The TDs are coming way down.

4) 6.1ypc, obviously unsustainable long-term.

5) Much of Kamara's value comes from him being a receiving back on one of the best receiving back offenses in NFL history.  How much of that receiving back focused offense is Brees and how much is Payton?  Either way, at LEAST one of them is on their way out here soon, and the other is a name always coming up on the hot seat, even if he is safe this year.

6) Even among these already great for receiving backs Saints teams, this Saints team was an outlier compared to the rest.  Everything just gelled this year.  The line played out of its mind and stayed healthy, the defense didn't let opposing teams control the clock like in years past, etc.  It wasn't just Kamara.  Ingram set career highs in just about every meaningful category as well including receptions, receiving yards, rushing yards, and TDs.

A lot of this can be made up for if Kamara one day becomes a feature back, but that seems like far from a given.  If his role stays the same, a decline in receptions, yards per reception, TDs, and yards per carry will likely all see a natural regression over time, and that's all before we consider any major changes to the offense with Brees and potentially Payton moving on in a few years.

I have Kamara in two dynasties and just started sending out offers involving him today to move over to a different top tier back.

 

[Concept Coop]

Any time people start down the "cut this number by X%" path, things kind of unwind.  That's not really how it works.  Guys drop off precipitously in categories where it might not have made sense to predict that large of a falloff.

Right off the bat there are a laundry list of things stick out with Kamara.

1)  Kamara had 81 catches this year.  19 RBs in NFL history have had 80+ catches in a season.  Only 4 of those 19 ever caught 80+ balls again in the rest of their career.  Only 2 of those 19 ever caught 80+ balls more than one more time the rest of their career.  Well over half of them saw their typical year end reception totals drop to HALF of that within a few years.

2) Kamara averaged 10.2 yards per reception last year, which I believe would be among the best (THE best?) in NFL history for a whole career.  Faulk and Sproles, probably the two best receiving backs we've seen, were 9.0 and 8.8 respectively.  Kamara is a good receiver out of the backfield but he isn't Marshall Faulk.  And even if he is, that number will still come down.

3) Kamara had 13 TDs on 201 touches this year, for a rate of one TD every 15 touches.  That is crazy unsustainable.  Ladainian Tomlinson, for instance, scored a TD every 37 touches.  Adrian Peterson once every 27 touches.  Sproles once every 23 touches.  Shaun Alexander, who was known for having a nose for the endzone like no one else was once every 22 touches.  The TDs are coming way down.

4) 6.1ypc, obviously unsustainable long-term.

5) Much of Kamara's value comes from him being a receiving back on one of the best receiving back offenses in NFL history.  How much of that receiving back focused offense is Brees and how much is Payton?  Either way, at LEAST one of them is on their way out here soon, and the other is a name always coming up on the hot seat, even if he is safe this year.

6) Even among these already great for receiving backs Saints teams, this Saints team was an outlier compared to the rest.  Everything just gelled this year.  The line played out of its mind and stayed healthy, the defense didn't let opposing teams control the clock like in years past, etc.  It wasn't just Kamara.  Ingram set career highs in just about every meaningful category as well including receptions, receiving yards, rushing yards, and TDs.

A lot of this can be made up for if Kamara one day becomes a feature back, but that seems like far from a given.  If his role stays the same, a decline in receptions, yards per reception, TDs, and yards per carry will likely all see a natural regression over time, and that's all before we consider any major changes to the offense with Brees and potentially Payton moving on in a few years.

I have Kamara in two dynasties and just started sending out offers involving him today to move over to a different top tier back.

I'm just trying to weed out the "It's too good to be true!" argument.  Your below arguments are exactly what I'm looking for. 

1. How many of those RBs lined up in the slot as often as Kamara?  "NFL history" isn't a good sample size to use.  How many of those came in the last 10 years?  Some of those guys are still playing.  What's the trend line?  To answer my own question, it's obviously pointing up and to the right. 

2. A yard per touch here or there is largely immaterial, in terms of PPR fantasy production.  

3. It makes zero sense to compare his TD rate at the per touch level to traditional RBs.  Sproles is a good comp.  But Kamara's TD rate doesn't need to hold to justify my ranking of him.  I'm happy to concede that it's likely to dip.  We didn't need to project OBJ to score 16+ TDs a season to value him highly following his crazy rookie season. 

4. A yard per touch here or there is largely immaterial, in terms of PPR fantasy production.  

5. Carolina did it this year. Pittsburgh did it this year.  Arizona did it last year.  Atlanta did it last year.  Duke Johnson had 93 targets.  Carlos Hyde had 88 targets.  Todd Gurley had 87 Targets.  Melvin Gordon had 83 targets.  James White had 72 targets in a very limited role.  The NFL is evolving and Kamara will see a great deal of targets wherever he goes.  

6. I hope things do start to go south for the Saints offensively, especially on the ground.  And Kamara was a major reason why things gelled this year.  We saw what they looked like without him for the better part of a game (after going right down the field with him.)

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

 

[thriftyrocker]

Kamara is an interesting case.  I liked his talent and loved his situation going into last year so I felt he was underrated and ended up with him in a lot of leagues.  But if this is how some people view him I will be looking to move him in every league this offseason.  I expect him to remain a good fantasy player but I think he will settle more into the low RB1/high RB2 range and not the #3 dynasty RB you have him as.  

If no one is willing to give you a RB Coop has in Tier 3 or higher or a WR that he has in Tier 2 or higher, would you still sell? Do you think he is in the right tier, just more towards the bottom of that tier?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

"NFL history" isn't a good sample size to use.  How many of those came in the last 10 years?  Some of those guys are still playing.  What's the trend line?  To answer my own question, it's obviously pointing up and to the right. 

To be clear there are actually 22 guys that have done it but I didn't include McCaffrey, David Johnson, or Kamara himself since they obviously haven't had a chance to try and repeat the feat yet.

Here is the list of guys.  Note that both of the guys to repeat multiple times were a bit ago so I would dispute that the trend line is obviously pointing up and to the right.  8 of the 10 repeat seasons were from 10+ years ago.  If anything, recent players have struggled MORE to repeat the feat, not less.

Marshall Faulk: 4
Larry Centers: 3
Le'Veon Bell: 1
Darren Sproles: 1
Roger Craig: 1
Matt Forte: 0
Ladainian Tomlinson: 0
Steven Jackson: 0
Danny Woodhead: 0
Ronnie Harmon: 0
Eric Metcalf: 0
Brian Westbrook: 0
Keith Byars: 0
Charlie Garner: 0
Reggie Bush: 0
Theo Riddick: 0
Shady McCoy: 0
Ray Rice: 0
Pierre Thomas: 0

Several of these guys are still going but Bell seems like the only one with a reasonable chance to do it again going forward.  The repeats have almost always come consecutively (for instance Faulk's 4 seasons where he did it were all in a row), so it's not likely that Woodhead or Riddick or Forte are going to suddenly do it again.

2. A yard per touch here or there is largely immaterial, in terms of PPR fantasy production.  

3. It makes zero sense to compare his TD rate at the per touch level to traditional RBs.  Sproles is a good comp.  But Kamara's TD rate doesn't need to hold to justify my ranking of him.  I'm happy to concede that it's likely to dip.  We didn't need to project OBJ to score 16+ TDs a season to value him highly following his crazy rookie season. 

4. A yard per touch here or there is largely immaterial, in terms of PPR fantasy production.  

Sure, but these aren't all independent.  You knock a yard per touch off rushing, a yard per touch off receiving, cut the TDs by 50%, cut the receptions by 25%, it all starts to really add up.  Noe that a "yard" in these cases is mostly a best case scenario.  For instance knock a yard off each of his receptions and it's still I believe the highest YPR in NFL history for a RB, so it will likely be more than that. 

 

[Concept Coop]

To be clear there are actually 22 guys that have done it but I didn't include McCaffrey, David Johnson, or Kamara himself since they obviously haven't had a chance to try and repeat the feat yet.

Here is the list of guys.  Note that both of the guys to repeat multiple times were a bit ago so I would dispute that the trend line is obviously pointing up and to the right.  8 of the 10 repeat seasons were from 10+ years ago.  If anything, recent players have struggled MORE to repeat the feat, not less.

22 RBs have done it and 9 of them are still on a roster.  3 guys did it this season.  2 of them in their first crack at it. That's up and to the right.  I don't want to get caught up on a single number, however, as my ranking and argument doesn't depend on it.  Kamara's receiving ability is special for a RB, making it safe to project him towards the top of the league in RB REC production.  We live in a world where Carlos Hyde got 88 targets - Alvin Kamara will be just fine wherever he goes, in that regard.  I feel like you can use this very data to say, "See how special his first ever outing as an NFL player was?"  

Sure, but these aren't all independent.  You knock a yard per touch off rushing, a yard per touch off receiving, cut the TDs by 50%, cut the receptions by 25%, it all starts to really add up.  Note that a "yard" in these cases is mostly a best case scenario.  For instance knock a yard off each of his receptions and it's still I believe the highest YPR in NFL history for a RB, so it will likely be more than that. 

Alvin Kamara's efficiency is likely to dip. I'm not sure what that has to do with his dynasty ranking, however.  (Especially when it's so easy to project more touches.)  You could do this very exercise with Beckham's rookie season.  It was still right to treat him as a top 3 WR at the time.  

If your argument is that Kamara will need more touches to match his gross PPR production, I agree with you.  I don't see that as a reason to value him any differently than I am.  

 

[Tau837]

 

 

[Raback]

If no one is willing to give you a RB Coop has in Tier 3 or higher or a WR that he has in Tier 2 or higher, would you still sell? Do you think he is in the right tier, just more towards the bottom of that tier?

Obviously it would have to be the right offer as like I said I do think he will still likely be a low end RB1.  I’d be looking to package him with something else for a Gurley, Zeke, OBJ or Hopkins.   Or sell him for guys like Hunt, Mixon, Cook, D. Adams, T. Hill plus an extra piece.  

 

[Biabreakable]

I like Cole.  Be warned, I liked Cecil Shorts, and it's hard not to make that comep.  Small school kids who play much faster than their 40 time, and just happen to wear the same number for the same team.  But Cole was 4th among rookies in receiving yards and was consistently able to get open deep.  This a year removed from the Great Midwest Athletic Conference.  I had to look that up.

I do think ARob and/or Lee are gone.  I'd drop him a bit if they both stayed, certainly, but I'd still be targeting Cole. 

I have no opinion about Cole.

I do think Shorts was a good player though. Guy just can't stay healthy. So if he reminds you of Shorts, at least to me that sounds like a promising player.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Gimme a price check on Drake in terms of a draft pick this year

 

[fruity pebbles]

Drake is a guy I had on all of my team's heading in to year, dropped him due to short rosters, and luckily got him back in 5/6 leagues betting 1/3 of budget to get him when it was clear he could explode. Prior to his rookie year, I was drafting him with confidence in rookie drafts around 2.2-2.4 range wherever I could get him. Point being, I liked the talent. I viewed him as more of a PPR COP back a la Gio/Reggie rather than between the tackles 20 carry guy, in large part due to the fact we had not seen him in that type of role since he dominated in high school. Well, even I was surprised at how he faired this year, and my eyes tell me it was not a fluke. 

He deserves to be where Coop has him ranked, funny enough he is RB16 in my rankings too (we have a bit of difference in 1-15 but not much), the upside warrants it. In a PPR, I'm not dealing Drake for Hyde/Howard/Ingram/Ajayi/Perine/etc. types. I'd rather the guy who has shown he can be a 16-18 PPG guy, and pray during the draft they do not draft a back early. I know what a lot of those other guys are, but it's not a locked in RB1, which is what Drake typically was down the stretch. Ingram sure had a good year but I do not like him to repeat at quite that level. 

I am getting a ton of offers for Drake, but none of which are really that strong. Everyone price-checking to see if they can steal the guy. No thanks. 

What are you getting for offers and what kind of pick do you value him at?

 

[Biabreakable]

Ajayi was one of my bigger misses this season.  I thought he was an RB1.  He didn't quite look the same this year, but I'm willing to give him another shot, based on how good he looked at times last season.  Even when the numbers weren't coming, he was breaking tackles and piling up the YAC.  I don't understand why he's struggling so much in the passing game, when he put up such impressive receiving numbers in college.  But I'm no longer counting on him coming around there, he's a 2 down back.  

Jay Ajayi did have a top 12 RB season in 2016. RB 11 in standard or PPR. It happened with a lot of volume in a short time frame. In 2016 Ajayi wasn't even active for the first game. Then the next 3 weeks Gase split carries between the RB and they lost a lot of games. They had injuries on their defense that made Gase want to shorten games and run the ball a lot. Tannehill was injured and the last 3 games of the 2016 season are with Moore at QB. Ajayi officially got the start against the Titan where he only had 13 rushing attempts because the Titans are hard to run the ball against and with 13 rushing attempts you had to wonder if Gase meant what he said about Ajayi being the starter at that time. I do think he had most of the snaps in the Titans game though.

Rk    Year    Date    G#    Age    Tm        Opp    Result    Att    Yds    Y/A    TD    Tgt    Rec    Yds    Y/R    TD    Ctch%    Y/Tgt    Rt    Yds    Y/Rt    TD    2PM    TD    Pts

14    2016    2016-10-16    6    23-123    MIA        PIT    W 30-15    25    204    8.16    2    2    1    3    3.00    0    50.0%    1.50    0    0        0        2    12
15    2016    2016-10-23    7    23-130    MIA        BUF    W 28-25    28    214    7.64    1    1    1    2    2.00    0    100.0%    2.00    0    0        0        1    6
16    2016    2016-11-06    8    23-144    MIA        NYJ    W 27-23    24    111    4.63    1    4    3    19    6.33    0    75.0%    4.75    0    0        0        1    6

So you have 3 very good games by Ajayi but he is getting to run the ball 24 or more times in these 3 games. 

17    2016    2016-11-13    9    23-151    MIA    @    SDG    W 31-24    19    79    4.16    0    1    1    1    1.00    0    100.0%    1.00    0    0        0        0    0
18    2016    2016-11-20    10    23-158    MIA    @    LAR    W 14-10    16    77    4.81    0    4    3    7    2.33    0    75.0%    1.75    0    0        0        0    0

These rushing numbers are fine, but the yards per reception continues to be low. 4 games where he had 3 or fewer yards per reception.

19    2016    2016-11-27    11    23-165    MIA        SFO    W 31-24    18    45    2.50    1    2    1    11    11.00    0    50.0%    5.50    0    0        0        1    6
20    2016    2016-12-04    12    23-172    MIA    @    BAL    L 6-38    12    61    5.08    0    7    6    26    4.33    0    85.7%    3.71    0    0        0        0    0
21    2016    2016-12-11    13    23-179    MIA        ARI    W 26-23    20    48    2.40    0    3    1    15    15.00    0    33.3%    5.00    0    0        0        0    0
22    2016    2016-12-17    14    23-185    MIA    @    NYJ    W 34-13    19    51    2.68    0    0    0    0        0    0.0%        0    0        0        0    0

He hits a more difficult part of the schedule with the Ravens being a very good defense at that time. Also the Cardinals defense was playing well. There are 4 kind of dud games though. The 7 receptions against the Ravens nice to see but the yards were still below average.

23    2016    2016-12-24    15    23-192    MIA    @    BUF    W 34-31    32    206    6.44    1    1    1    3    3.00    0    100.0%    3.00    0    0        0        1    6

Ajayi's 3rd 200 yard rushing day. On 32 rushing attempts this time though.

24    2016    2017-01-01    16    23-200    MIA        NWE    L 14-35    16    59    3.69    0    3    3    20    6.67    0    100.0%    6.67    0    0        0        0    0

Playoffs    2016    2017-01-08    17    23-207    MIA    @    PIT    L 12-30    16    33    2.06    0    3    3    12    4.00    0    100.0%    4.0

Two more bad games.

25    2017    2017-09-17    1    24-094    MIA    @    LAC    W 19-17    28    122    4.36    0    2    2    4    2.00    0    100.0%    2.00    0    0        0        0    0

Season didn't start right because of the hurricane. Ajayi as a good game but 28 rushing attempts. Again not getting many yards on receptions.

26    2017    2017-09-24    2    24-101    MIA    @    NYJ    L 6-20    11    16    1.45    0    3    2    9    4.50    0    66.7%    3.00    0    0        0        0    0
27    2017    2017-10-01    3    24-108    MIA        NOR    L 0-20    12    46    3.83    0    1    1    8    8.00    0    100.0%    8.00    0    0        0        0    0

Some pretty bad games.

28    2017    2017-10-08    4    24-115    MIA        TEN    W 16-10    25    77    3.08    0    3    2    2    1.00    0    66.7%    0.67    0    0        0        0    0

He plays better against the Titans with more carries, but still hard to run on them.

29    2017    2017-10-15    5    24-122    MIA    @    ATL    W 20-17    26    130    5.00    0    3    0    0        0    0.0%    0.00    0    0        0        0    0

Has a good game against Atlanta. 

30    2017    2017-10-22    6    24-129    MIA        NYJ    W 31-28    23    51    2.22    0    4    3    26    8.67    0    75.0%    6.50    0    0        0        0    0
31    2017    2017-10-26    7    24-133    MIA    @    BAL    L 0-40    13    23    1.77    0    4    4    18    4.50    0    100.0%    4.50    0    0        0        0    0

Bad games. Ajayi is traded to the Eagles.

32    2017    2017-11-05    9    24-143    PHI        DEN    W 51-23    8    77    9.63    1    0    0    0        0    0.0%        0    0        0        1    6
33    2017    2017-11-19    10    24-157    PHI    @    DAL    W 37-9    7    91    13.00    0    1    1    10    10.00    0    100.0%    10.00    0    0        0        0    0
34    2017    2017-11-26    11    24-164    PHI        CHI    W 31-3    5    26    5.20    0    2    1    7    7.00    0    50.0%    3.50    0    0        0        0    0

Not getting the ball that much, but Ajayi makes some big plays showing he hasn't lost talent. I saw some of this and he did look very good at times. Also his yards per reception looks better although only 2 receptions.

35    2017    2017-12-03    12    24-171    PHI    @    SEA    L 10-24    9    35    3.89    0    4    3    11    3.67    0    75.0%    2.75    0    0        0        0    0

Difficult defense. Bad game. Wentz injured.

36    2017    2017-12-10    13    24-178    PHI    @    LAR    W 43-35    15    78    5.20    0    2    1    2    2.00    0    50.0%    1.00    0    0        0        0    0

The Rams are a pretty good defense. The team leans more on Ajayi and he puts up good rushing numbers on 15 carries.

37    2017    2017-12-17    14    24-185    PHI    @    NYG    W 34-29    12    49    4.08    0    2    2    40    20.00    0    100.0%    20.00    0    0        0        0    0

Only 12 carries, but 2 receptions for 40 yards. After a week where he only had 2 yards receiving, he has 40. Overall he seems to be doing more on a per reception basis with the Eagles, unlike with Miami.

38    2017    2017-12-25    15    24-193    PHI        OAK    W 19-10    14    52    3.71    0    3    2    21    10.50    1    66.7%    7.00    0    0        0        

Not a very good day running the ball but again with some good yardage on his receptions. This is without Wentz.

Playoffs    2017    2018-01-13    17    24-212    PHI        ATL    W 15-10    15    54    3.60    0    5    3    44    14.67    0    60.0%    8.8

I think Ajayi is showing signs of being a more effective receiver with the Eagles than he was with the Dolphins. 

He still struggles to run the ball at times although there are good games in there too.

He is a RB who needs more opportunity though to be effective for fantasy than he was getting this season. There were good signs of him still being a very talented player, a resurgence somewhat as a receiver compared to Miami being a positive sign though.

Sorry for the length with the game logs. Just shows me that Ajayi has a tough time against good run defenses. The Eagles are able to get the ball to him in ways that he can actually gain yards.

Drake was a **** recruit with solid draft pedigree.  His biggest knock coming out was health related, but he's suited up for every game in his pro career.  It took him awhile to get his shot - and that's a valid reason for concern - but he looked really good when it came.  He's a weapon out of the backfield as well.  I will certainly concede that we should be careful about overvaluing end of season runs that come with fresh legs.  It's worth noting that Williams was efficient post-Ajayi as well.  Drake is a gamble.  But I'm comfortable gambling on him over the guys behind him, many safer than Drake.  He gave me enough to make a call.  For the record, I'm not buying Drake until Miami brings in another back.  They surely will, at which point, Drake will come cheaper.  But unless they go RB early or sign one of the better FA, I'm willing to bet on Drake winning that battle. 

Damien Williams is a pretty good RB. He is better as a back up than a starter although he can do a bit of everything. He can play fullback or TE too. 

I have come around on Drake over time. Really did not think much of his resume as a prospect and from the cut ups I watched. More of an offensive weapon type player. Didn't really run between the tackles, and so on. There were reasons why I thought the Dolphins using a 3rd round pick on him was too high. Plus they had Ajayi on the team who I expected to beat Drake out which he did. Drake was getting opportunities in the first 3 weeks of the season before Gase decided to make Ajayi the starter.

My point of view about him has changed somewhat. I listened to Clives comments about him. I got the sense that they did think Drake could be a featured RB. I somewhat bought in to the coaches belief in him. I even drafted him a few times this season like end of the draft type pick. He did have some good games. 3 of them. Its a good sign, but still not enough for me to have a ton of confidence in Drake.

I am kind of looking at this that Gase will be fired after this season which likely will not be very good considering they hired the Bears OC to take over the offense for Gase. This does not have me investing in Dolphins players at this time. I think there still may be more buy low opportunities ahead. For all we know the Dolphins draft one of these good RB and Drake remains a part time player.

To me this seems different than the other RB you list in the tier.

I love McCoy as a player.  I was early on him and he won me a lot of championships.  But as Harsted used to say: Father Time is undefeated.  While he's still a good back, he's already slowing down.  He has more value to me on contending rosters than in a startup.  No problem with someone playing the short game and paying more for him, but I'm only projecting one season at a time for him moving forward.  

How would you rank tier 5 RBs thinking about which of them have the best chance to be a top 12 RB in 2018?

 

[Tha Guru]

Gimme a price check on Drake in terms of a draft pick this year

Someone offered me the 2.4 for him.  It's a PPR league.

 

[ZWK]

Since 2006, the Saints top receiving back each season has averaged 75 receptions per 16 games:

Year Player Rec Games Rec/G
2006 Reggie Bush 88 16 5.5
2007 Reggie Bush 73 12 6.1
2008 Reggie Bush 52 10 5.2
2009 Reggie Bush 47 14 3.4
2010 Reggie Bush 34 8 4.3
2011 Darren Sproles 86 16 5.4
2012 Darren Sproles 75 13 5.8
2013 Pierre Thomas 77 16 4.8
2014 Pierre Thomas 45 11 4.1
2015 Mark Ingram 50 12 4.2
2016 Mark Ingram 46 16 2.9
2017 Alvin Kamara 81 16 5.1
Avg 63 13.3 4.7


This seems more relevant, for predicting Kamara's receiving production over the next couple years, than the fact that some RB who had his first 80 reception season at age 29 never repeated the feat.

 

[Biabreakable]

In regards to Kamara. Good discussion there. To be honest I still don't think I have decided about Kamara yet, as far as exactly where he should be ranked.

The 80 receptions threshold is something that hasn't happened for RB very often, as FreeBaGeL points out. There are likely a few other seasons where RB were getting 75 receptions or so, so it goes with arbitrary cuts offs. Still illuminating how infrequently it has happened, with some pretty gifted players that make it seem like something they were capable of doing, but just didn't for a variety of reasons. Missing a few games makes such a target hard.

Coop points out that 3 RB did that this season. Which is very compelling as well. The league definitely shifted towards throwing to RB more this year. At least some teams did, and the talent of McCaffrey and Kamara are two of the biggest reasons why. Add to this that David Johnson was injured. Maybe there would have been a 4th RB with 80 receptions if he had been healthy.

Kamara could easily have a 50-60 reception season just from improved WR 2 play. Or they could just stick with Kamara as their WR 2 moving forward. That is one of the issues I am not sure about.

Anyhow I think it is good to look at recent trends of the league, as things do change some times quickly and some times gradually. Teams adjust and copy what is working. So the last 5 seasons can change things a lot if all of the teams are buying into it and its still working pretty well. And what teams are doing 15 years ago may look pretty different than what teams are doing now. 

Teams definitely have been passing the ball more over the past decade. That trend is not up this season however.

2017

1013.6 average total plays per team

546 pass attempts average team

17488 pass attempts league wide

34.2 pass attempts per game average

2016

1022.9 average total plays per team

571.7 pass attempts average team

18295 pass attempts league wide

35.7 pass attempts per game average

2015

1030.4 average total plays per team

571.8 pass attempts average team

18298 pass attempts league wide

35.7 pass attempts per game average

2014

1024.3 average total plays per team

558.7 pass attempts average team

17879 pass attempts league wide

34.9 pass attempts per game average

2013

1040.7 average total plays per team

566.8 pass attempts average team

18136 pass attempts league wide

35.4 pass attempts per game average

We have a peak in total plays 2013. Total plays have been gradually going down from that high mark. Last season was the fewest total offensive plays. All teams averaging 1014 total plays is more similar to 1990s football than it is to 2013.

Pass attempts were down by about 30 per team in 2017 and the lowest total passing attempts of the last 5 seasons. The lowest number of total passes since 2011.

4 of the last 5 seasons has been around 35 per game. It was only 34 2 last year. That is how significant a bump of one play per game per team can add up to a lot even though its only one attempt per game.

So passing was down last season. Based on the trend I would still say pass attempts are going to go up.

As I have talked about in the Keenan Allen thread, the WR scoring was down across the board in 2017. Part of the reason for this is because of teams throwing to the RB more.

I wish I had a total number of RB targets handy. but I don't. I am guessing that the percentage of targets for RB increased a lot in 2017 which coupled with less passing, hurt WR scoring even more. Plus the RB are getting more receptions, increasing their overall value relative to WR in how people are ranking, trading, drafting ect.

 

[Mister CIA]

Not suggesting I am right, but I have Kenneth Dixon ranked in my top 30.

 

[BINGBING]

@Concept Coop Props to anyone willing to post dynasty rankings in their own thread and will update them and will listen to questions about the rankings.  It's a great exercise for all of us and a great read.

My question is about guys I own that I want to sell.  I don't think Perine and Mack are worth high RB3 and low RB3 value in my Superflex PPR league.  I've put them on the block and they are getting no hits and offers for meh picks and/or WR's are getting shot down.  I could see Perine being worth next to nothing pretty fast and could see Mack only being a week to week play for a couple years if Indy drafts a RB. 

This isn't an Assistant coach question like it sounds, but more of a question as to why these guys are rated fairly high but aren't drawing any trade value.  I'm stacked at RB and also own the 1.1 and 1.2.  I don't need these guys, but nobody wants them.  It feels like everyone is in agreement that these are JAGS.  I think Mack has long term spot play value in PPR as long as Barkley doesn't land in Indy, but for the most part these two RB's can't be sold for penny's on the dollar from my experience.

 

[thriftyrocker]

why these guys are rated fairly high but aren't drawing any trade value. 

Cause most of the guys behind them aren't any better. RB25-75 is pretty flat.

 

[Snorkelson]

Perine didn’t really wow, and no one will invest in Mack until they see what Indy does at rb. They’ll do something, whether it’s draft or fa or bring gore back, so you may not get any better than a 3rd, and Washington is the same boat. Bunch of uncertainty on offense for both teams beginning with the qb position. Take what you can get pick wise before you just have to cut them. 

 

[steelers1080]

Not suggesting I am right, but I have Kenneth Dixon ranked in my top 30.

He was cut in my league because everyone thinks that Collins and Woodhead will do everything. With Woodhead's contract, he could be a cap casualty. And Dixon flashed 3-down talent when he was healthy. If he can come back fully healthy then he could be good. But if he isn't showing well in training camp or preseason, I'll probably cut him too.

 

[Gandalf]

No concern about Davante Adams having 3 concussions in the past 14 months?

I'm a psychiatrist and I'm VERY concerned

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

I'm a little late to the Kamara discussion but will offer my 2 cents. I understand some of Kamara's rates are not sustainable but as I do my rankings there are still only a handful of guys I can rank over him.   I have Gurley, Elliott, Johnson, and Bell ahead of him in some order and Kamara in the next tier with Hunt and Fournette.  My question for those that are less optimistic about Kamara is who else do you rank ahead of him?   I could see an argument for Cook, Mixon or Gordon but not really anyone else.

 

[TripleThreat]

Best discussion I've read in some time, @Concept Coop.  Thanks. 

Question regarding Chris Carson.  He seemed like he was coming on when he went down.  Do you not believe in his talent, that SEA won't get their OL issues fixed, he'll split with Mike Davis? 3 headed monster with Prosise? or?   Love to read thoughts on him, TIA

 

[Interseptopus]

I think you're being generous with the 3-4 estimate. I would still take him over Howard though due to weekly upside.

Oh I agree. I originally had a much shorter time frame but I didn't want to be raked over the coals by his dynasty owners who don't want to read that. 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Since 2006, the Saints top receiving back each season has averaged 75 receptions per 16 games:

Year Player Rec Games Rec/G
2006 Reggie Bush 88 16 5.5
2007 Reggie Bush 73 12 6.1
2008 Reggie Bush 52 10 5.2
2009 Reggie Bush 47 14 3.4
2010 Reggie Bush 34 8 4.3
2011 Darren Sproles 86 16 5.4
2012 Darren Sproles 75 13 5.8
2013 Pierre Thomas 77 16 4.8
2014 Pierre Thomas 45 11 4.1
2015 Mark Ingram 50 12 4.2
2016 Mark Ingram 46 16 2.9
2017 Alvin Kamara 81 16 5.1
Avg 63 13.3 4.7


This seems more relevant, for predicting Kamara's receiving production over the next couple years, than the fact that some RB who had his first 80 reception season at age 29 never repeated the feat.

Which is a bit of a catch-22, since it shows how unlikely the notion was that the Payton/Brees system wasn't special for receiving backs and who knows how long that situation will remain going forward.

Brees is obviously getting near the end.  The good news is that Payton threw to the RB a lot in New York even before he had Brees.  However the Saints are so up and down year to year and Payton is constantly on and off the hotseat.  If one of those down years coincides with a very old Brees who decides to move on (next year, the year after?) I could easily see Payton moving on as well and the Saints starting over.

Regardless, I generally tend to side with historical trends (though they of course can be broken), and I don't believe there's been any consistent top 5 fantasy RB getting 120-150 carries per season.  Kamara is currently being treated as such, so if I have a chance to move laterally to a workhorse top 5 fantasy RB of which there have been many, I am taking it.  Even if I have to give up something of small/moderate value in the process.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Which is a bit of a catch-22, since it shows how silly the notion was that the Payton/Brees system wasn't special for receiving backs and who knows how long that situation will remain going forward.

I don't think anyone would disagree that New Orleans system wasn't a great one for pass catching backs (it would be a weird position to take given past results) - I think that's why many thought Kamara was a good fit there.

I also think most realize that Brees has a limited shelf life. For me, I think it's obvious that Brees hanging them up would be bad and we would need to hope NO brings in an adequate replacement. The reason why I am so high on Kamara personally is because not only do I like his situation (for the short term at least) but I also see a special player on the field when I watch. He's got outstanding speed, elite balance, decent power and very good lateral movement. He gets past defenders and makes it look effortless when he does. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Regardless, I generally tend to side with historical trends (though they of course can be broken), and I don't believe there's been any consistent top 5 fantasy RB getting 120-150 carries per season. 

Also the guy is 5'10" 215 pounds so I'm not sure why you think he's capped at 120-150 carries. As much as the New Orleans system helps him the fact that Ingram was there and Peyton likes a RBBC also hurt him to some extent. Ingram is only under contract one more season. I don't see why Kamara couldn't see a heavier workload once Ingram is gone.

 

[Bfrahm3]

Best discussion I've read in some time, @Concept Coop.  Thanks. 

Question regarding Chris Carson.  He seemed like he was coming on when he went down.  Do you not believe in his talent, that SEA won't get their OL issues fixed, he'll split with Mike Davis? 3 headed monster with Prosise? or?   Love to read thoughts on him, TIA

I was a big believer in him and still think he can be the guy but it's just so hard to tell what the Seahawks are gonna do. There is probably a good chance if a top rookie rb falls to Seattle they take him in the second and then that probably means that rookie gets every chance to be the starter right away. On the other side of that, right now they could have a pretty good cheap rb option with Carson so maybe they run with him for another year to see if they can use that money to improve the OL. I do think if they don't add a early round rookie that Carson will be the main back over Davis and/or prosise

 

[Concept Coop]

Gimme a price check on Drake in terms of a draft pick this year

I'd feel good paying anything in the 1.10-12 range today.  That said, I think Miami brings in some RB depth, and he might come cheaper once they do.  

 

[Gandalf]

I was a big believer in him and still think he can be the guy but it's just so hard to tell what the Seahawks are gonna do. There is probably a good chance if a top rookie rb falls to Seattle they take him in the second and then that probably means that rookie gets every chance to be the starter right away. On the other side of that, right now they could have a pretty good cheap rb option with Carson so maybe they run with him for another year to see if they can use that money to improve the OL. I do think if they don't add a early round rookie that Carson will be the main back over Davis and/or prosise

I like Carson a lot still if he is healthy

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Also the guy is 5'10" 215 pounds so I'm not sure why you think he's capped at 120-150 carries. As much as the New Orleans system helps him the fact that Ingram was there and Peyton likes a RBBC also hurt him to some extent. Ingram is only under contract one more season. I don't see why Kamara couldn't see a heavier workload once Ingram is gone.

Yeah that is certainly one of the possible outcomes, that he becomes more of a lead back or even a feature back.  Of course that is just speculation on our part as he was a part-time player in college as well, and I'm not sure it's something I'd want to count on happening to maintain his value long-term.

Of course that's the same speculation a lot of peope were making about Gio after his rookie year and it never came to fruition.  Likewise the same speculation that people were making about Lamar Miller and, while the transition did happen for him, the increased workload sapped his effectiveness and explosiveness.  Still, it worked out for Jamaal Charles among others.

I guess my point in all of this is that there are a lot of ifs and buts for Kamara.  We've already talked about a lot of his efficiency metrics being likely to regress.  As CC pointed out that will still leave him as a backend RB1 even if we chopped a fair amount off of some of those from where he was this year, but if you can make a lateral move to someone that was a high RB1 WITHOUT a bunch of metrics that are likely to regress, or without the notion that they may have to develop into something they've never been, why not do it?

Personally I plan on offering Kamara + 1.09 for Zeke in the league where I have Kamara.  I'm not generally a play it safe kind of guy but I am very much a "studs win championships" kind of player and I just feel a lot more comfortable about Zeke maintaining his stud status long-term than Kamara, and am willing to give up some value to secure that.  I'd rather count on Zeke being the 80th (made up number ) workhorse back to maintain elite production long-term than count on Kamara being the 1st pass-catching back to do it.

Btw as a total aside to all of this, while Kamara's listed height/weight look good for a heavier workload, to me (and I think you even mentioned the same in another thread) he looks a lot smaller than his listed weight on the field.  I'm not sure why.