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I thought he looked pretty good, but the sample size was really small. I view him as a quality gamble and stash, but no more than that. I think Seattle is a candidate to go RB early. If Carson survives the draft and FA, I'll be more interested, but currently seem him as a dart with decent upside. I'll be surprised if he's the week 1 starter.TripleThreat said:
He looks super thin - but he does play and look strong. I think his weight is just evenly distributed. He's "sleek".
I realize this is not any kind of deep analysis, but it just seems like Seattle has these "come out of nowhere" guys each season that burst on the scene and quickly fade away.
He could I suppose. Sean Payton does like to use more than one RB though and even when Ingram leaves they may just replace him with another RB who will get a lot of carries.Dr. Octopus said:
Doesn't this go both ways? By the time Kamara needs to worry about another system, Bell and DJ will be 28.
Totally right, fixed my last post. Doesn't change the outlook as much if they can find a QB, which I think most people expect them to sign a FA QB instead of drafting one. Could be a quick fix.
I like DT as a buy low right now if I’m not rebuilding. CJ heated up at the end of the year, if he doesn’t get cut he will be in the mix and is probably cheap as all get out.
Mike Williams wasn't drafted to be the Chargers' #1 WR. He was drafted to be #2 behind Allen.
If Baltimore does not add an early round rookie or impact free agent at RB, I think Collins is the clear cut favorite. He looked electric at times and was way more productive than Allen or Dixon ever were. Dixon has talent but I'm not sure he can survive missing so much time early in his career to make a major impact.
That just doesn't seem to be true. At the time there were plenty of questions about Keenan Allen and if he'd be the same player, so Mike Williams was drafted to be a substitute #1 in case Allen couldn't come back to his original form, which it seems he has. That relegates MW to #2 which was probably the ideal scenario for the Chargers anyways. But they took him that high in the draft because of the thought that he COULD be a #1 WR.
I don't expect Woodhead to be back in Baltimore. Collins, Allen, Dixon to open the season. Maybe use a later draft pick on some competition but it certainly shouldn't be a need. Early round picks and free agent dollars would be better better spent on the OL and obviously some weapons at wr/te IMO. Could even beef up the defense and see if they can jump from pretty good to elite.
Woodhead's contract is only $2.5MM for 2018. While it is not guaranteed, that's cheap enough where I'd think they'd keep him around.
Perhaps. I suspect they had a Julio/Roddy situation in mind, best case, and also viewed Williams as insurance for Allen; in case they needed to move on from Allen's sizable contract after the 2018 season. I do think they saw Williams as a potential WR1, and drafted him in large part due to that.
It is absolutely true, which is why drafting Mike Williams was a poor decision for the Chargers.
To be fair, I said ever be a WR1. I didn't mean to suggest Williams was drafted to supplant Allen.
You're right it is fairly cheap but if Dixon is healthy and in a good place mentally he's making the team and Buck will be kept since he can catch fairly well and is big enough to duplicate some semblance of a power running game. Woodhead has the best hands and route running of the group but I'm not sure that will overcome what looked to be a big loss in quickness when he came back from the injury.
Dixon was a 4th round comp pick in a very weak and shallow RB class. He's been suspended for PEDs and suffered a major injury. His early value was tied to his path to starter touches, and that path is now less promising. He's a JAG to me, and I'd prefer to take a shot on a similar prospect without the baggage, which I expect to be able to do in the 3rd round this year. JMO, of course.
stashed him on my IR in a shallow league where someone dropped him early in the season, so I basically got him for free. I'll hold him as a free lottery ticket, see what happens in the pre-season, and dump him at keeper cut down time with no qualms. To me, Dixon is at that level of the dynasty value discussion.Concept Coop said:
This describes a lot of guys after about RB25.Concept Coop said:
This post above highlighted some of the guys I think could see value jumps. While some guys like DJ and Kamara have their value propped up due to one perfect storm season, some of these guys got crapped on when it came to situation.
Here's a good article on why the Seahawks cut Collins. TL;DR: 1) fumbles, 2) bulked up as a rookie which made him slow, 3) McKissic as receiver/returner more valuable at the time.FF Ninja said:
What Baltimore does in the offseason will be very interesting to watch. Woodhead in the mix or cap cut? He’s no spring chicken anyway. If he gets axed Allen should have flex value again in ppr. If they don’t add a quality fa or fairly early draft pick then Collins seems like he’d be the guy but dixon could pretty feasibly overtake him. Could be some buy low or even ww opportunities. Seems like they have a lot of other more pressing needs than rb. Oline, wr, te, defense all need bodies. Rb seems reasonable at the moment. What wr do they bring in? What te do they bring in? There should be more Fantasy value in that passing game than Allen and Watson.
Anderson was $$ down the stretch after the new OC quit goofing around with a 3-headed committee: 22 touches and 107 yards per game over the last five games. Downside is that every coaching staff tries to take touches away for whatever reason (conditioning, pain in the ###, stupidity -- who knows). Upside is none of them have been able to stick with it yet.
My money is on Dixon here. I think he was called a JAG in this thread, but I just don't know how that can be said. He looked legit after he got healthy as a rookie. In his last 8 games he averaged 4.9 ypc and caught 25 passes. He's a legit 3 down back, but he's long forgotten. Getting a PED suspension and missing a full year of football certainly increases his bust risk, but I don't see how anyone could label him a JAG from the limited sample we've seen of him. I can totally get giving him an "incomplete" grade, but not JAG. Even if he doesn't earn the job outright, I think he'll at least beat out Collins OR Allen for one part of the RBBC.
I need to fit Jordy, Crabtree, and Barber into the rankings. Rather than do that now, I'm going to ponder some of the points that hit home with me, and revise both lists in the near future.
Dixon looked pretty good, but the sample size was small, the competition was none, and the production came at the end of the season. Calling him a legit 3 down back is much more of a statement than calling him a JAG. He's an average athlete, plays smaller than his listed size, doesn't have much draft pedigree and simply doesn't stand out to me. I'll gladly bet against him beating out Collins, and don't see him being fantasy relevant in the short-term unless he does. And that's assuming the team doesn't address the position in the draft.
Ware's contract is up at the end of the season, and is only guaranteed for 333K this season.FF Ninja said:
I do think the Dolphins bring someone in. If it's someone like CJ, I'll happily bet on Drake winning the job, and buy him at a heavily reduced rate.FF Ninja said:
The only thing you showed was that the Texans were a bad team this year. Again, it makes zero sense to compare his gross garbage time numbers to players with less garbage time. Watch the guy play. He's better than Keenan Allen.FF Ninja said:
Thomas' TDs are very likely to increase. He finished WR6 with 5 TDs on the season. He scored more points last year with fewer targets and with Cook on the roster. If you're not sold on his talent, then of course move him before his situation changes. If you are, don't overthink it.FF Ninja said:
Last year it was his value being tied to Tanny and his TD rate. This year he had his best season with Jay Cutler and was one of the best redzone WRs in the league, according to PFF. He's been a target hog for 4 years straight now, in 2 different systems, with 2 different coaches, and 3+ different QBs. You're late the party, my man. Once Landry signs, I'll gladly compare his contract to those DeSean and Pryor got.FF Ninja said:
His gross stats don't even tell the whole story. His per start numbers make him a WR1 - and he'll be starting next year.FF Ninja said:
Well, I didn't call him an elite 3 down back. I just meant that he's good between the tackles, good at pass blocking, and good as a receiver (and some of that is based on pre-draft scouting that I read - not the small NFL sample). I don't know that he's great at any of those aspects, but I think he'll be good enough to beat out either Collins or Allen, if not both of them. As for playing smaller, that's not what I've read. He supposedly has a lot of power/leg drive which would make him a nice short yardage guy. I'm not saying anyone should pay a premium for him or hinge their season on him being their RB2... I'm just saying he presents a good value right now.
So he'll be on the team in 2018. I'm not trying to guess where Ware will be in 2019, but I think he'll steal enough snaps to bring Hunt's value down in the eyes of dynasty owners. Even if I liked Hunt a lot, I'd probably wait a year to buy or would try an in-season trade.
And that's why you have him ranked so high. I'm just saying why I don't. If Drake was a stock, I'd gladly take a short position.
I think it makes a lot of sense. Garbage time numbers are easier to compile and mean less when it comes to projecting future stats. That's why I say he's at risk of dropping the most. If Keenan could luck into some of that sweet, sweet low hanging garbage time fruit while Hopkins' dries up, Keenan will easily surpass Hopkins in most rankings next year. If they both have a normal amount, I think Keenan out produces Hopkins. I don't mean to make this about Keenan vs. Hopkins, but they are similar talents at a similar age with pretty different rankings. I suspect it's just due to the garbage time stats inflating one's value.
I'm not saying he's a scrub. Just that if NO brings in a decent TE or decent slot WR (they were missing both this year) OR if Brees declines, then Thomas stands to lose a lot of value in a 12 month period. I feel very confident at least one of Thomas or Kamara will lose a lot of dynasty value in 12 months. If the team regresses back to the mediocrity of the three years before this one, then both could take a hit.
Maybe you're right. I definitely can't shake the feeling that Landry is overrated af. He's like Amendola without the injuries, but nobody ever thought Dola deserved to get paid like a WR1 when healthy. They both have football value, but neither should be the focus of a good offense. Perhaps I'm just too stubborn here, to the point where I just won't ever be attending the party. If Landry maintains his value, I might never be willing to pay that price. He's always been "the guy who catches 10 yard receptions on 3rd and 15" to me.
Yeah, for sure he'll be starting. But his OC will be gone (and maybe his elite RB) and AB will still be in his prime. And don't be the guy who says Bell leaving would be good for Juju. They're not vying for the same targets, but more importantly, a less effective offense is never a good thing. More first downs = more plays = more FF points to go around. Minor point: Ben doesn't strike me as a guy who is going to age as well as Brees/Brady/Manning, so that's another risk factor I see with Juju.
Everything else is reasonable. I just can't get over your stance here, however. Do you have anything tangible to support your stance on garbage time production?
I guess it's the fact that I've watched so much of Hopkins and just don't come away thinking he's elite. I've said it before so I hate to bore you by repeating it, but he looks like a young Crabtree to me. Great hands, great intermediate routes, but not an elite separator and not really electric with the ball in his hands. If Crabtree had a bunch of risky desperation shots fired at him against half-hearted defensive efforts, he'd have stacked up the stats, too.
It takes a smart, dedicated QB who spends a lot of time in the film room reading pre-snap defenses and learning defensive tendencies to pull that off effectively. Brady/Brees/Manning all had/have that kind of determination and dedication. You think Ben does? Maybe I'm judgmental, but he doesn't seem that smart OR dedicated.
That's cause Ben isn't. He is the guy who is going to hold the ball too long sometimes looking for the big shot. That's why he and Arians worked so well together because that's exactly what Arians wanted to do. Haley on the other hand did what he could to incorporate some shorter routes more often with screens, dump offs, crosses and the like than Arians would have (not that Arians didn't but it's not his go to, just like Haley's go to is the shorter style with some deep shots). Both ran really great offenses for the Steelers but they were opposites in their philosophy it seems. I'm not worried about JuJu moving forward and like you said he'll have some 3-40, 4-55 type of games, he isn't supplanting AB anytime soon but he's on a team he can develop (yes he's still doing that at 21 years old), and improve his craft while playing on an elite skilled team. He's set up for success throughout his career, with who he has to learn from, the team being successful, learning that stuff to either use himself on the Steelers or elsewhere.
In regards to your comment and that of @Zyphros, I don't know if Ben is smart or not or how he'll adjust to a decline in skills. It's guesswork, really. I guess for me, I think of two generalized primary areas of decline for a QB as they age: mobility and touch/speed on downfield throws and deep balls. I don't know if those will be Ben's primary areas of decline, but I think those are safe statements for QBs at large.
That's an interesting philosophy going forward. I'm pretty excited about the new QB's coming into the league this year specifically so the deficit in your mind, is young QB and young WR growing together in mine. Either way they are targets for future fantasy seasons. I think those WR's you listed as targets are more about talent than trying to target guys who thrive in the short passing game. We've seen more WR's in the last while that aren't height weight speed gods be more and more successful and if you haven't already shouldn't think those are requirements to be a good WR.
