Are you familiar with his background at all? He was originally a baseball player and was drafted by the Twins. He didn't join the football team at Georgia Tech until his junior season. In his senior year he averaged 20.4 yards per catch and a TD every 5 receptions. He had 715 receiving yards that year in 12 games before tearing his ACL. That may not sound like that much, but bear in mind that Georgia Tech ranked 124th out of 128 Division 1 programs with just 203 passing attempts that season. Smelter accounted for 38% of their receiving yards despite missing two full games with the knee. If you cut out the 259 total passing yards that Tech netted in the two games that he missed with injury, Smelter's market share rises to 44.1% of Tech's total. And he did all of that despite sharing the field with Darren Waller, a WR who was drafted by the Ravens in the sixth round last year. Here's how Smelter's 2014 market share compares to the 2015 totals of this year's top draft picks:
I don't think market share is the perfect stat for a variety of reasons, but in general your assessment of the situation there seems very lacking. You make no mention of his rawness (he only played two years of college football), his injury, or his team's conservative offense. All of these things influenced his production. He wasn't as dominant at Tech as Demaryius Thomas or Calvin Johnson, but those might be two of the top 5 WRs of the past decade, so it's a pretty high standard for anyone.
Overall, he was an efficiency stats dynamo as a senior at Georgia Tech. His yards per reception average in his final season was ahead of what Fuller, Boyd, Treadwell, Coleman, Shepard, and Doctson did. He averaged more TDs per reception than everyone besides Coleman and Carroo. Of the WRs picked in the first three rounds this year, only Carroo had a higher market share in his final season. And Smelter did all of this as a 6'2" 226 pound possession WR.
He passes the eyeball test for me, was a somewhat high draft pick considering his injury situation, and is on a team that has no proven possession WR. Given his lack of experience, it would be somewhat unreasonable to assume he's just going to step in and dominate, but this is an exciting prospect. I don't think your analysis does him credit. It seems like you don't know much about this player and are looking for reasons not to like him instead of weighing all of the information.
Great post, and I wanted to address it.
I am really not impressed with efficiency stats as it relates to Georgia Tech. It doesn't mean that I dismiss them, but comparing percentage numbers with WRs that come from offenses that actually throw the ball, come on. That's not even apples to oranges. That's apples to gorillas. WRs
should average a lot of yards, and have a high percentage of the passing game at GA Tech. That's what happens when the defense is selling out the run every play, and you throw 6 times a game.
Now, clearly you cannot dismiss GA Tech WRs, that would clearly be a big mistake. Really, it's impressive how many have gotten drafted.
It's funny, I have a rookie/vet draft starting next week, and Smelter may very well wind up on my team. I'll have to post here if I wind up getting him. I wish I liked him more, because I will probably be able to get him in the 4th to 6th round of his draft, I would bet.
I really like the path to playing time/targets. Let's assume Torrey is what he is, that seems safe. There's a whole lot of targets left for someone else. Ellington and Patton are the vets that will probably be slotted ahead of Smelter to start camp. Neither has the size Chip craves, and neither has proven to be a dynamic slot guy. The CFL kid is interesting, being the first signing by the new staff, but this isn't like a 2nd round WR joining the team, more like a priority UDFA. He already has been in an NFL camp and cut.
I like that if you are shopping for a WR1 profile, Smelter fits the bill from a metrics standpoint.
I like that his cost is minimal. If you have him, he doesn't cost much. Even acquiring him now is cheap.
What I don't like worries me
more:
I don't like how raw he is, according to all reports, and that he redshirted last year. NFL coaches will tell you that the big jump is from 1st to 2nd year for NFL players, and Smelter missed an entire year of practice, working on his craft, running routes, etc. Smelter is probably more ready for the season than a rookie coming from college, but I wonder how much. How raw is he? Because I happen to think the 'coach him up' aspect of the NFL is dramatically overblown. I've heard too many NFL people talk about how little teaching gets done during the season. The team is putting in the gameplan, and there isn't much time for coaches to be off on the side working on technique in the middle of the season. Smelter missed out on a season of coaching and development that he needed more than most rookie WRs.
I don't like Chip, and I wonder if teams have figured out his offense.
I don't trust the 49ers organization. Appears to be run by clowns. Whatever, Barnridge and Benjamin helped fantasy owners last year, but all things considered, Smelter is on the bottom 3 or 4 teams in the league, in my humble opinion.
I don't trust Gabbert to get the ball to anyone regularly. I sure don't trust Kaep anymore than Gabbert.