Sabertooth
Footballguy
All concerns. We will have to see. Mathews seemed fine in that offense. There is very little competition for snaps.
If he fails it will be because he's not good enough, not because he got a late start.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
DeAndre Smelter, WR San Francisco 49ers (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter EBF
- Start date
If he fails it will be because he's not good enough, not because he got a late start.
Yeah I realize it's a different coach and what not but this is a guy who played football (along with other sports) in high school and then decided to focus on baseball only to hurt his shoulder were he couldn't throw as hard to then turn around 2-3 years after high school and walk on for football and put up very good numbers so while yes the playbook will be different he just had a year to learn how to watch film, understand pre snap stuff and what not more then he would have if he would be a rookie this year...it's kinda like Kevin white, his value hasn't gone down and actually some people think he's better off because he's had that extra time to develop more
Football Jones
Footballguy
Massive upside. Smelter still has a bunch of headroom since he had little college experience. I said last year for what you had to pay, him & Ty Montgomery were two of the better bargains in recent memory. Most people were able to snag them anywhere from the late 3rd to late 4th.
Last edited by a moderator:
dipandglide
Footballguy
What do you like so much about Montgomery?
EBF
Footballguy
The main reason I ended up with him in a lot of leagues is because he was so cheap. I actually saw a lot of him at Stanford and had some questions about parts of his game, but then rookie drafts came around and he kept falling to a place where it made sense. I was getting him in the 3rd-4th round of 12 team rookie drafts, as deep as the 40th overall pick. That's a pretty good price for a third round Packers WR, IMO.
He and Smelter were both relatively cheap to acquire last season. Had they been going top 10-15, I doubt I would've ended up with them anywhere. They routinely fell to draft slots where I thought the risk/reward made a lot of sense though. Same reason why I have Boehringer a lot of places now, though I think he's much more volatile.
imjackdupp
Footballguy
dipandglide
Footballguy
Get that value!!!!
The season starts tomorrow....what are the GBP and SF49 wr depth charts? Is Adams toast in GB? Is Smelter the wr2 in SF? What about Ellington and Montgomery? Does Janis have a shot at wr3? Both of those teams have holes(more so SF). I know Jordy isn't getting any younger....
My fav flier out of the group is Ellington. He's on ww's, being drafted in the last few rounds in startups, ect.. I know Kelly came out and said that he was impressed by what he saw. He's a plus athlete that can play outside or in the slot and could become a nice ppr asset if he gets the targets. He also has good genes(Andre is his cousin). Buy, buy, buy at his current ADP.
Smooth operator- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQtFGPG3AS8
Last edited by a moderator:
EBF
Footballguy
No idea in GB, but I think Adams still gets a chance to redeem himself. Nelson on one side, Adams on the other. Cobb and Ty working the middle.
I think any one of Smelter/Patton/Ellington can win the #1/#2 job in SF opposite Torrey. Smelter is the most intriguing to me, but the other guys aren't trash. Patton wouldn't have hung around the league this long without some talent and he has made some flash plays at times. Smelter is very inexperienced, which could be a factor.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Why can't Smelter be #1 in San Fran? Torrey Smith is a journeyman with speed. He's had one 1000 yard season in 5 tries.
DevilDog919
Footballguy
Why hasn't Eric Rogers been mentioned? Nobody think he has a shot to take over a starting spot?
FUBAR
Footballguy
While a TE, Gay Barnidge did just fine last year, older and in Cleveland.
Kamar Aiken did alright in Baltimore.
EBF
Footballguy
I wasn't impressed with his CFL highlights. I don't think he will make the roster.
lod01
Footballguy
Torrey Smith is garbage. Can't catch, isn't #1 material & probably won't even be on the team in 2018. Smelter is the superior receiver.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Sorry, guess I didn't know I needed proper grammar all the time. I'll clean it up next time I post lol
Captain Cranks
Footballguy
He's trying to rip SWC's shtick without the funny or anything being brought to the bank.
massraider
Footballguy
Great post, and I wanted to address it.
I am really not impressed with efficiency stats as it relates to Georgia Tech. It doesn't mean that I dismiss them, but comparing percentage numbers with WRs that come from offenses that actually throw the ball, come on. That's not even apples to oranges. That's apples to gorillas. WRs should average a lot of yards, and have a high percentage of the passing game at GA Tech. That's what happens when the defense is selling out the run every play, and you throw 6 times a game.
Now, clearly you cannot dismiss GA Tech WRs, that would clearly be a big mistake. Really, it's impressive how many have gotten drafted.
It's funny, I have a rookie/vet draft starting next week, and Smelter may very well wind up on my team. I'll have to post here if I wind up getting him. I wish I liked him more, because I will probably be able to get him in the 4th to 6th round of his draft, I would bet.
I really like the path to playing time/targets. Let's assume Torrey is what he is, that seems safe. There's a whole lot of targets left for someone else. Ellington and Patton are the vets that will probably be slotted ahead of Smelter to start camp. Neither has the size Chip craves, and neither has proven to be a dynamic slot guy. The CFL kid is interesting, being the first signing by the new staff, but this isn't like a 2nd round WR joining the team, more like a priority UDFA. He already has been in an NFL camp and cut.
I like that if you are shopping for a WR1 profile, Smelter fits the bill from a metrics standpoint.
I like that his cost is minimal. If you have him, he doesn't cost much. Even acquiring him now is cheap.
What I don't like worries me more:
I don't like how raw he is, according to all reports, and that he redshirted last year. NFL coaches will tell you that the big jump is from 1st to 2nd year for NFL players, and Smelter missed an entire year of practice, working on his craft, running routes, etc. Smelter is probably more ready for the season than a rookie coming from college, but I wonder how much. How raw is he? Because I happen to think the 'coach him up' aspect of the NFL is dramatically overblown. I've heard too many NFL people talk about how little teaching gets done during the season. The team is putting in the gameplan, and there isn't much time for coaches to be off on the side working on technique in the middle of the season. Smelter missed out on a season of coaching and development that he needed more than most rookie WRs.
I don't like Chip, and I wonder if teams have figured out his offense.
I don't trust the 49ers organization. Appears to be run by clowns. Whatever, Barnridge and Benjamin helped fantasy owners last year, but all things considered, Smelter is on the bottom 3 or 4 teams in the league, in my humble opinion.
I don't trust Gabbert to get the ball to anyone regularly. I sure don't trust Kaep anymore than Gabbert.
Rogers is getting some early buzz around the team too.
Gonna be an interesting battle between Smelter, Patton, and Ellington for the team's second starting spot. I think all three have some degree of viability. Smelter seems to have the most upside. If he can show the ability to consistently separate, I think he'll take it. He is bigger and much more physical than the other SF WRs. The only possible troubling flaw I saw in some of his Georgia Tech clips was that he didn't always generate great separation in his routes.
lod01
Footballguy
That's what the WR coach is job is. Now you need a good WR coach. Jerry Sullivan, for instance, is a great WR coach, currently making Robinson a stud WR in JAX.
Also not a fan of SF right now. Not sure Chip is capable of hiring good coaches under him.
EBF
Footballguy
Those concerns marke sense, but what is his dynasty ADP? Where do sites like DLF and FBG have him slotted? My guess is that it would be really low.
Nobody is saying that he's perfect, but if his real value is significantly higher than his market value then he's still a hold/buy.
Part of that in most leagues is whether his owner is really high on him or just a guy who happened to end up with him. Players are usually harder to acquire than you'd think just by looking at generic rankings because they tend to be owned by guys who are higher than average on them (which makes a lot of sense).
EBF
Footballguy
Less of a concern in dynasty. 7 of my 8 leagues are dynasty, so I'm not as worried about the immediate situation. Niners will upgrade the QB spot eventually.
I don't expect Smelter to be startable this season. It's possible, but it would be a pleasant surprise. I'm looking at him as a project.
I don't expect Smelter to be startable this season. It's possible, but it would be a pleasant surprise. I'm looking at him as a project.
Don't know but recently did a few FFPC rookie/free agent drafts and saw a few others. I saw him go as high as mid second and as late as mid 4th but in general he seemed to settle into mid to early third round ADP.
Treadwell, Doctson, Coleman, Shepard, Thomas, Boyd, Carroo, Mitchell and Fuller almost always go ahead of him.
In all of these leagues Hogan was available, Sanu and Coates in a few and based on sample size of just a few leagues the order of those in terms of ADP, if you want to compare him to vets, was: Coates, Smelter, Hogan, Sanu
FUBAR
Footballguy
while it wasn't me you talked to, this would be my asking price too. In an idp league I'd probably trade him for one of the top LB rookies.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Well, then a you a don't getta no Coke. I don't get why you'd pay a 2 this year but not next year.
Makes sense to me, I gave up seconds this year for seconds next year. I think the top of the second round next year will be similar to pick 7 or 8 this year.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Maybe so in some leagues, but similar as in similarly mediocore. Next years class is like the 2014 class, when you could get skill position players like Allen Robinson and Benjamin who were high NFL draft picks in the mid to late second.
lod01
Footballguy
massraider
Footballguy
massraider
Footballguy
I expect a lot of people to beat the "way to early" drum until that point they realize it's just the way it is so safe to say we'll agree to disagree. To me it's simple math.
Now a lot of scouts, and us, are going to whiff badly on evaluating players stock today versus next year. Some will fall considerably, like remember when people thought Marquise Lee would vie for 1.1 the year before he came out? Yet almost every year we get a Kevin White or Doug Martin-players who were on next to no one's radar entering what would be their final seasons so I tend to think on the total these things tend to work themselves out.
So here are some examples of why I think it lends itself to simple math, not said intended to be condescending. I'm looking at this from my own personal angle, not to prove a point, so I care little about QB but play in mainly TE premium leagues so I tend to only look at this in terms of RB's, WR's and TE's and right now this class has "potential" of being all time worthy for two of those positions.
Dane Brugler of CBS Sports put out an early 2017 mock draft after the 2016 draft. He had 4 RB's, 2 WR's and 3 TE's in the first round. That's 9 first round skill position players. This year we had we had 5 in round one.
Matt Miller put out a deeper top 50 list. He has 7 RB's, 5 WR's and 5 TE's in his top 50 for 2017. So in theory if this held true you would be able to pick a top 50 skill position player all the way back to pick 17. Just for kicks I went back to his early top 50 from 2016 and he only had 10 skill position players in his top 50 and 3 of them did not come out. I also went to look up his final top 50 for 2016 and again he ended up with exactly 10 skill position players which goes back to my point about it generally evening out.
I've read guys like Daniel Jeremiah say it's the deepest TE class he's ever seen and possibly all time great RB class so it's not just Brugler and Miller putting out nutty lists.
So to me it's a numbers game and I go back to what I said about the 2014 draft class where you saw extremely strong talent pushed back into mid to late second round. Contrast this to this year where you are seeing 4th round RB's and third round WR's going in round one.
Rockchild
Footballguy
Seems like moving a first next year is a good way to acquire some proven talent. Use the hype, whether real or not, to booster your roster now.
Last edited by a moderator:
FUBAR
Footballguy
While it's a negative for sure, two of the top four receivers last year had fitz and hoyer throwing the rock. Fitz was able to have two wr1s (close enough anyway). Hilton and Benjamin produced well enough with old dudes who hadn't done much starting.
Gabbert is a bottom 5 starter but not much worse (if at all) than fitz, McCown, or Hasselbeck. While I'm absolutely not saying Smelter approaches most of those receivers in talent, I don't think he's less talented than Benjamin.
Reasonable expectations are key here, nobody should be drafting him to start, but if he's going after the top 70 receivers https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?format=standard&year=2016&teams=12&view=graph&pos=wr that's a chance I'm taking.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Not really. thats a very shortsighted outlook. Aaron Dobson had Brady, didn't help him. Talent is talent. I think the qb is the least of the obstacles facing Smelter.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Just thinking about this for a minute, I think the whole "his qb isn't great so he can't produce" logic Is overblown. I figure 24 QBs would be considered good, roughly 25 of the top 32 receivers played with those QBs.
Torrey only got 3.8 targets a game last year, not much to take away from or worry about either. It's the person taking the Boldin/Jordan Mathews role that has my interest.
FUBAR
Footballguy
I'll assume Smelter can take targets from the guy who had a career high 65 receptions. But smith is the deep threat, they serve different roles.
It's all about targets and TDs. 2015 was a disaster, but Kelly's WR2 finished WR24 for fantasy purposes in 2013 and 2014 (Riley Cooper and then Jordan Matthews) despite utilizing a combo of Sanchez, Foles, and Vick. Whoever comes away from the preseason as the WR2 in this offense could garner 100 targets depending how much Chip throws it (only 508 in 2013 but over 600 in 2014 and 2015).FUBAR said:
Right now Smelter and Torrey are being drafted WR54 and WR76. Some serious value to be had here unless SF turns into an even bigger dumpster fire than PHI last season (Matthews WR18, Huff WR88). Last year Philly's WR2-5 had 44, 41, 40, and 31 targets each. For FF purposes, let's hope a clearer WR2 emerges in SF.
No mention of smelter in maiocco's or barrow's reports.
http://www.sacbee.com/sports/nfl/san-francisco-49ers/article80893787.html
http://www.csnbayarea.com/49ers/49ers-mailbag-two-step-cornerback-wide-receiver
http://www.sacbee.com/sports/nfl/san-francisco-49ers/article80893787.html
http://www.csnbayarea.com/49ers/49ers-mailbag-two-step-cornerback-wide-receiver
Smelter listed as a disappointing player in the OTAs: http://www.sacbee.com/sports/nfl/san-francisco-49ers/article83454522.html
massraider
Footballguy
That should be concerning for those who think he's going to be ready to bump some of these other guys of the roster this year as well, no?
Sabertooth
Footballguy
If he's good, he's ascend this depth chart very quickly. If he's not, you next him. I can't believe anyone has much invested in him. Nice lottery ticket who probably won't amount to much, just like any other 4th rounder.
