Dixon looked pretty good, but the sample size was small, the competition was none, and the production came at the end of the season. Calling him a legit 3 down back is much more of a statement than calling him a JAG. He's an average athlete, plays smaller than his listed size, doesn't have much draft pedigree and simply doesn't stand out to me. I'll gladly bet against him beating out Collins, and don't see him being fantasy relevant in the short-term unless he does. And that's assuming the team doesn't address the position in the draft.
Well, I didn't call him an elite 3 down back. I just meant that he's good between the tackles, good at pass blocking, and good as a receiver (and some of that is based on pre-draft scouting that I read - not the small NFL sample). I don't know that he's great at any of those aspects, but I think he'll be good enough to beat out either Collins or Allen, if not both of them. As for playing smaller, that's not what I've read. He supposedly has a lot of power/leg drive which would make him a nice short yardage guy. I'm not saying anyone should pay a premium for him or hinge their season on him being their RB2... I'm just saying he presents a good value right now.
Ware's contract is up at the end of the season, and is only guaranteed for 333K this season.
So he'll be on the team in 2018. I'm not trying to guess where Ware will be in 2019, but I think he'll steal enough snaps to bring Hunt's value down in the eyes of dynasty owners. Even if I liked Hunt a lot, I'd probably wait a year to buy or would try an in-season trade.
I do think the Dolphins bring someone in. If it's someone like CJ, I'll happily bet on Drake winning the job, and buy him at a heavily reduced rate.
And that's why you have him ranked so high. I'm just saying why I don't. If Drake was a stock, I'd gladly take a short position.
The only thing you showed was that the Texans were a bad team this year. Again, it makes zero sense to compare his gross garbage time numbers to players with less garbage time. Watch the guy play. He's better than Keenan Allen.
I think it makes a lot of sense. Garbage time numbers are easier to compile and mean less when it comes to projecting future stats. That's why I say he's at risk of dropping the most. If Keenan could luck into some of that sweet, sweet low hanging garbage time fruit while Hopkins' dries up, Keenan will easily surpass Hopkins in most rankings next year. If they both have a normal amount, I think Keenan out produces Hopkins. I don't mean to make this about Keenan vs. Hopkins, but they are similar talents at a similar age with pretty different rankings. I suspect it's just due to the garbage time stats inflating one's value.
Thomas' TDs are very likely to increase. He finished WR6 with 5 TDs on the season. He scored more points last year with fewer targets and with Cook on the roster. If you're not sold on his talent, then of course move him before his situation changes. If you are, don't overthink it.
I'm not saying he's a scrub. Just that if NO brings in a decent TE or decent slot WR (they were missing
both this year) OR if Brees declines, then Thomas stands to lose a lot of value in a 12 month period. I feel very confident at least one of Thomas or Kamara will lose a lot of dynasty value in 12 months. If the team regresses back to the mediocrity of the three years before this one, then both could take a hit.
Last year it was his value being tied to Tanny and his TD rate. This year he had his best season with Jay Cutler and was one of the best redzone WRs in the league, according to PFF. He's been a target hog for 4 years straight now, in 2 different systems, with 2 different coaches, and 3+ different QBs. You're late the party, my man. Once Landry signs, I'll gladly compare his contract to those DeSean and Pryor got.
Maybe you're right. I definitely can't shake the feeling that Landry is overrated af. He's like Amendola without the injuries, but nobody ever thought Dola deserved to get paid like a WR1 when healthy. They both have football value, but neither should be the focus of a good offense. Perhaps I'm just too stubborn here, to the point where I just won't ever be attending the party. If Landry maintains his value, I might never be willing to pay that price. He's always been "the guy who catches 10 yard receptions on 3rd and 15" to me.
His gross stats don't even tell the whole story. His per start numbers make him a WR1 - and he'll be starting next year.
Yeah, for sure he'll be starting. But his OC will be gone (and maybe his elite RB) and AB will still be in his prime. And don't be the guy who says Bell leaving would be good for Juju. They're not vying for the same targets, but more importantly, a less effective offense is never a good thing. More first downs = more plays = more FF points to go around. Minor point: Ben doesn't strike me as a guy who is going to age as well as Brees/Brady/Manning, so that's another risk factor I see with Juju.
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Keep in mind at least 30% of my takes are going to be dead wrong for reasons that may or may not be predictable. I'm not trying to criticize your rankings. Just pointing out where I see some discrepancies in value compared to my own value assessments, and then giving the logic behind it for the sake of discussion. As a result of this thread I'll definitely be paying more attention to offseason articles about guys like Drake, Collins, and Landry to see if there's something I'm missing.