Ajayi was one of my bigger misses this season. I thought he was an RB1. He didn't quite look the same this year, but I'm willing to give him another shot, based on how good he looked at times last season. Even when the numbers weren't coming, he was breaking tackles and piling up the YAC. I don't understand why he's struggling so much in the passing game, when he put up such impressive receiving numbers in college. But I'm no longer counting on him coming around there, he's a 2 down back.
Jay Ajayi did have a top 12 RB season in 2016. RB 11 in standard or PPR. It happened with a lot of volume in a short time frame. In 2016 Ajayi wasn't even active for the first game. Then the next 3 weeks Gase split carries between the RB and they lost a lot of games. They had injuries on their defense that made Gase want to shorten games and run the ball a lot. Tannehill was injured and the last 3 games of the 2016 season are with Moore at QB. Ajayi officially got the start against the Titan where he only had 13 rushing attempts because the Titans are hard to run the ball against and with 13 rushing attempts you had to wonder if Gase meant what he said about Ajayi being the starter at that time. I do think he had most of the snaps in the Titans game though.
Rk Year Date G# Age Tm Opp Result Att Yds Y/A TD Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Ctch% Y/Tgt Rt Yds Y/Rt TD 2PM TD Pts
14 2016 2016-10-16 6 23-123 MIA PIT W 30-15 25 204 8.16 2 2 1 3 3.00 0 50.0% 1.50 0 0 0 2 12
15 2016 2016-10-23 7 23-130 MIA BUF W 28-25 28 214 7.64 1 1 1 2 2.00 0 100.0% 2.00 0 0 0 1 6
16 2016 2016-11-06 8 23-144 MIA NYJ W 27-23 24 111 4.63 1 4 3 19 6.33 0 75.0% 4.75 0 0 0 1 6
So you have 3 very good games by Ajayi but he is getting to run the ball 24 or more times in these 3 games.
17 2016 2016-11-13 9 23-151 MIA @ SDG W 31-24 19 79 4.16 0 1 1 1 1.00 0 100.0% 1.00 0 0 0 0 0
18 2016 2016-11-20 10 23-158 MIA @ LAR W 14-10 16 77 4.81 0 4 3 7 2.33 0 75.0% 1.75 0 0 0 0 0
These rushing numbers are fine, but the yards per reception continues to be low. 4 games where he had 3 or fewer yards per reception.
19 2016 2016-11-27 11 23-165 MIA SFO W 31-24 18 45 2.50 1 2 1 11 11.00 0 50.0% 5.50 0 0 0 1 6
20 2016 2016-12-04 12 23-172 MIA @ BAL L 6-38 12 61 5.08 0 7 6 26 4.33 0 85.7% 3.71 0 0 0 0 0
21 2016 2016-12-11 13 23-179 MIA ARI W 26-23 20 48 2.40 0 3 1 15 15.00 0 33.3% 5.00 0 0 0 0 0
22 2016 2016-12-17 14 23-185 MIA @ NYJ W 34-13 19 51 2.68 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
He hits a more difficult part of the schedule with the Ravens being a very good defense at that time. Also the Cardinals defense was playing well. There are 4 kind of dud games though. The 7 receptions against the Ravens nice to see but the yards were still below average.
23 2016 2016-12-24 15 23-192 MIA @ BUF W 34-31 32 206 6.44 1 1 1 3 3.00 0 100.0% 3.00 0 0 0 1 6
Ajayi's 3rd 200 yard rushing day. On 32 rushing attempts this time though.
24 2016 2017-01-01 16 23-200 MIA NWE L 14-35 16 59 3.69 0 3 3 20 6.67 0 100.0% 6.67 0 0 0 0 0
Playoffs 2016 2017-01-08 17 23-207 MIA @ PIT L 12-30 16 33 2.06 0 3 3 12 4.00 0 100.0% 4.0
Two more bad games.
25 2017 2017-09-17 1 24-094 MIA @ LAC W 19-17 28 122 4.36 0 2 2 4 2.00 0 100.0% 2.00 0 0 0 0 0
Season didn't start right because of the hurricane. Ajayi as a good game but 28 rushing attempts. Again not getting many yards on receptions.
26 2017 2017-09-24 2 24-101 MIA @ NYJ L 6-20 11 16 1.45 0 3 2 9 4.50 0 66.7% 3.00 0 0 0 0 0
27 2017 2017-10-01 3 24-108 MIA NOR L 0-20 12 46 3.83 0 1 1 8 8.00 0 100.0% 8.00 0 0 0 0 0
Some pretty bad games.
28 2017 2017-10-08 4 24-115 MIA TEN W 16-10 25 77 3.08 0 3 2 2 1.00 0 66.7% 0.67 0 0 0 0 0
He plays better against the Titans with more carries, but still hard to run on them.
29 2017 2017-10-15 5 24-122 MIA @ ATL W 20-17 26 130 5.00 0 3 0 0 0 0.0% 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
Has a good game against Atlanta.
30 2017 2017-10-22 6 24-129 MIA NYJ W 31-28 23 51 2.22 0 4 3 26 8.67 0 75.0% 6.50 0 0 0 0 0
31 2017 2017-10-26 7 24-133 MIA @ BAL L 0-40 13 23 1.77 0 4 4 18 4.50 0 100.0% 4.50 0 0 0 0 0
Bad games. Ajayi is traded to the Eagles.
32 2017 2017-11-05 9 24-143 PHI DEN W 51-23 8 77 9.63 1 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 1 6
33 2017 2017-11-19 10 24-157 PHI @ DAL W 37-9 7 91 13.00 0 1 1 10 10.00 0 100.0% 10.00 0 0 0 0 0
34 2017 2017-11-26 11 24-164 PHI CHI W 31-3 5 26 5.20 0 2 1 7 7.00 0 50.0% 3.50 0 0 0 0 0
Not getting the ball that much, but Ajayi makes some big plays showing he hasn't lost talent. I saw some of this and he did look very good at times. Also his yards per reception looks better although only 2 receptions.
35 2017 2017-12-03 12 24-171 PHI @ SEA L 10-24 9 35 3.89 0 4 3 11 3.67 0 75.0% 2.75 0 0 0 0 0
Difficult defense. Bad game. Wentz injured.
36 2017 2017-12-10 13 24-178 PHI @ LAR W 43-35 15 78 5.20 0 2 1 2 2.00 0 50.0% 1.00 0 0 0 0 0
The Rams are a pretty good defense. The team leans more on Ajayi and he puts up good rushing numbers on 15 carries.
37 2017 2017-12-17 14 24-185 PHI @ NYG W 34-29 12 49 4.08 0 2 2 40 20.00 0 100.0% 20.00 0 0 0 0 0
Only 12 carries, but 2 receptions for 40 yards. After a week where he only had 2 yards receiving, he has 40. Overall he seems to be doing more on a per reception basis with the Eagles, unlike with Miami.
38 2017 2017-12-25 15 24-193 PHI OAK W 19-10 14 52 3.71 0 3 2 21 10.50 1 66.7% 7.00 0 0 0
Not a very good day running the ball but again with some good yardage on his receptions. This is without Wentz.
Playoffs 2017 2018-01-13 17 24-212 PHI ATL W 15-10 15 54 3.60 0 5 3 44 14.67 0 60.0% 8.8
I think Ajayi is showing signs of being a more effective receiver with the Eagles than he was with the Dolphins.
He still struggles to run the ball at times although there are good games in there too.
He is a RB who needs more opportunity though to be effective for fantasy than he was getting this season. There were good signs of him still being a very talented player, a resurgence somewhat as a receiver compared to Miami being a positive sign though.
Sorry for the length with the game logs. Just shows me that Ajayi has a tough time against good run defenses. The Eagles are able to get the ball to him in ways that he can actually gain yards.
Drake was a **** recruit with solid draft pedigree. His biggest knock coming out was health related, but he's suited up for every game in his pro career. It took him awhile to get his shot - and that's a valid reason for concern - but he looked really good when it came. He's a weapon out of the backfield as well. I will certainly concede that we should be careful about overvaluing end of season runs that come with fresh legs. It's worth noting that Williams was efficient post-Ajayi as well. Drake is a gamble. But I'm comfortable gambling on him over the guys behind him, many safer than Drake. He gave me enough to make a call. For the record, I'm not buying Drake until Miami brings in another back. They surely will, at which point, Drake will come cheaper. But unless they go RB early or sign one of the better FA, I'm willing to bet on Drake winning that battle.
Damien Williams is a pretty good RB. He is better as a back up than a starter although he can do a bit of everything. He can play fullback or TE too.
I have come around on Drake over time. Really did not think much of his resume as a prospect and from the cut ups I watched. More of an offensive weapon type player. Didn't really run between the tackles, and so on. There were reasons why I thought the Dolphins using a 3rd round pick on him was too high. Plus they had Ajayi on the team who I expected to beat Drake out which he did. Drake was getting opportunities in the first 3 weeks of the season before Gase decided to make Ajayi the starter.
My point of view about him has changed somewhat. I listened to Clives comments about him. I got the sense that they did think Drake could be a featured RB. I somewhat bought in to the coaches belief in him. I even drafted him a few times this season like end of the draft type pick. He did have some good games. 3 of them. Its a good sign, but still not enough for me to have a ton of confidence in Drake.
I am kind of looking at this that Gase will be fired after this season which likely will not be very good considering they hired the Bears OC to take over the offense for Gase. This does not have me investing in Dolphins players at this time. I think there still may be more buy low opportunities ahead. For all we know the Dolphins draft one of these good RB and Drake remains a part time player.
To me this seems different than the other RB you list in the tier.
I love McCoy as a player. I was early on him and he won me a lot of championships. But as Harsted used to say: Father Time is undefeated. While he's still a good back, he's already slowing down. He has more value to me on contending rosters than in a startup. No problem with someone playing the short game and paying more for him, but I'm only projecting one season at a time for him moving forward.
How would you rank tier 5 RBs thinking about which of them have the best chance to be a top 12 RB in 2018?