Chris Hogan, WR (3 Viewers)

[tone1oc]

Well if your opinion is that he is not going to be starting X, then yeah my projections are way high for Hogan.  But again I stated that my projection was very specific to Hogan in a particular role.  I didn't just come up with arbitrary numbers, I used historical data and trends I'm not starting from "Bennett can catch 90 balls" or "Hogan [has] been limited to 35-40 receptions".   So when you say the #5 receiving option averaged 30-371-3 you are artificially creating a stat line that doesn't jive within a whole team projection for how the roster is now.  You are presenting a narrative that is either or with Hogan or Bennett, which ever one isn't in the top 4 is going to fall off a production cliff.  The numbers don't bear that out.  

As far as production leaking down to the lower roster, I think you are overstating that as 54% of NE snaps last year featured 2 TE, 2WR sets so over half the time only Edelman and Hogan would be on the field.  This production "leakage" is also very minimal when you are distributing over multiple guys, but it seems you want to take all of the "leakage" from Hogan's distribution because it fits a narrative. 

 

[tone1oc]

I'd still like to see your top 5 splits, as I suspect that it would more closely align with my projections.

 

[Anarchy99]

I will post projections once I get a sense of what the roster will be. It's too soon in my book as there may be another free agent signing, draft pick, trade, or player release pick up (as well as Amendola being cut).

To your point, if Hogan ends up being a true #2 outside receiver (ie not a slot guy), the past 5 years have produced some decent numbers in that role.

65-648-3
74-953-7
54-633-2
74-911-4
52-702-5

The only thing I would point out that this team is comprised a little differently, as we suspect they brought in Bennett to use him more than a typical back up TE and this team has Lewis and should pass more to him out of the backfield than they did with other teams.

Maybe Hogan locks up snaps in almost every formation and plays every down. I am not sure we can conclude that just yet.

 

[SWC]

hey brohans i was just joking before this guy is not actually almost eight feet tall just so you know take that to the bank bromigos 

 

[tone1oc]

I will post projections once I get a sense of what the roster will be. It's too soon in my book as there may be another free agent signing, draft pick, trade, or player release pick up (as well as Amendola being cut).

To your point, if Hogan ends up being a true #2 outside receiver (ie not a slot guy), the past 5 years have produced some decent numbers in that role.

65-648-3
74-953-7
54-633-2
74-911-4
52-702-5

The only thing I would point out that this team is comprised a little differently, as we suspect they brought in Bennett to use him more than a typical back up TE and this team has Lewis and should pass more to him out of the backfield than they did with other teams.

Maybe Hogan locks up snaps in almost every formation and plays every down. I am not sure we can conclude that just yet.

My projection of 62-714-5 is right in line with that comp set..  and the bottom two stat lines happened when Aaron Hernandez was there at TE2, which is a very optimistic projection for Martellus Bennett. 

We can't conclude anything in March, doesn't mean we shouldn't try and make best reasonable guesses.  There is currently nobody on the roster to fill the X role besides Hogan and Dobson, local insiders have suggested that Hogan will be their X in 2016 and Dobson hasn't been able to crack the depth chart in 3-4 years.  

There really are no option in FA right now, Anquan Boldin is out there but he's a slot guy/pseudo TE.  Rueben Randle is a mental midget and has work ethic issues, highly doubtful landing spot for him and then you have some other older guys like Colston and Roddy White who I don't see as anything other than depth if brought in.

That leaves us with the rookie draft, which would require the Pats to draft a WR that fits that role and that has the talent/draft capital to beat out Hogan.  While certainly possible, I wouldn't bet on it as this rookie class isn't flush with impact guys on the outside.  The earliest they could nab a rookie WR is pick #60 or #61. The one guy that would scare me there is Leonte Carroo, and I just don't see any later picks coming in and winning the job year one. 

Weighing all the options I'd put it at about 75% chance that Hogan is the starting X in 2016.   

 

[Anarchy99]

The issue I have in using 2011 as a baseline is I see that season as more of an outlier. That was the year where defenses didn't show up for most of the season. Brady threw for 5235/39. That might be 1,000 more yards than he could have this upcoming season . . . which makes trying to divvy up the production even harder.

They could still sign someone that currently is a free agent (Boldin, Jones, Washington as options), they could see who gets cut, they could trade for one, or they could draft one (Braxton Miller jumps out at me).

As I mentioned earlier in the thread, I still hear talk of Hogan being an every down special teamer . . . and what team plays their starting outside receiver on every down of special teams?

 

[tone1oc]

The issue I have in using 2011 as a baseline is I see that season as more of an outlier. That was the year where defenses didn't show up for most of the season. Brady threw for 5235/39. That might be 1,000 more yards than he could have this upcoming season . . . which makes trying to divvy up the production even harder.

They could still sign someone that currently is a free agent (Boldin, Jones, Washington as options), they could see who gets cut, they could trade for one, or they could draft one (Braxton Miller jumps out at me).

As I mentioned earlier in the thread, I still hear talk of Hogan being an every down special teamer . . . and what team plays their starting outside receiver on every down of special teams?

I only used 2011 (and 2012) with regard to Martellus Bennett's snap/target share.

I love his talent, but Braxton Miller is a development project, still learning how to run routes.   He'll need a lot of polish before he's ready and I'm not sure he profiles on the outside.  As I said Boldin is a slot guy at this stage in his career and Nate Washington or James Jones are nearing the end of the rope (as is Boldin).  

I haven't heard anyone suggest he was brought in to play special teams, though I'm sure you're not making it up.  I'd like to see a link if you have it.  It has been suggested that he was brought in to play X.  Matt Slater is their ST dynamo and one of the team leaders and he only making 1.7M/year they brought in Hogan at 5.5M for 2016.  How many teams pay 5.5M for a special team guy?  

http://nesn.com/2016/03/chris-hogan-would-give-patriots-size-flexibility-at-wide-receiver/

 

[Faust]

According to the Boston Herald's Jeff Howe, Chris Hogan has been the best receiver at Patriots minicamp "by quite a bit."
Julian Edelman (foot) and Danny Amendola (knee, ankle) are sidelined, but we still found this worth passing along. Hogan has reportedly been "one of the central figures" in New England's first-team practices, "catching everything being delivered his way by either Tom Brady or Jimmy Garoppolo, and he’s constantly getting open." The Herald's Karen Guregian reports Hogan caught more passes from Brady than any Patriot on the first two days of minicamp.

 
 
Source: Jeff Howe on Twitter
Jun 8 - 8:29 PM

 

[Arodin]

According to the Boston Herald's Jeff Howe, Chris Hogan has been the best receiver at Patriots minicamp "by quite a bit."

Julian Edelman (foot) and Danny Amendola (knee, ankle) are sidelined, but we still found this worth passing along. Hogan has reportedly been "one of the central figures" in New England's first-team practices, "catching everything being delivered his way by either Tom Brady or Jimmy Garoppolo, and he’s constantly getting open." The Herald's Karen Guregian reports Hogan caught more passes from Brady than any Patriot on the first two days of minicamp.

Odd to see this within minutes of reading the footballguys news tracker:

"New England Patriots WR Chris Hogan has been so-so during the early days of minicamp. He has made some impressive catches, including a one-handed grab Wednesday, June 8. However, he also has had a few drops in various drills and double-catches."

So which is it?  Best receiver in camp/catching everyting, or so-so with multiple drops?

(Not blaming Faust...he just posts the stuff.  But man, that's some wildly different accounts of the same practices.)

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Odd to see this within minutes of reading the footballguys news tracker:

"New England Patriots WR Chris Hogan has been so-so during the early days of minicamp. He has made some impressive catches, including a one-handed grab Wednesday, June 8. However, he also has had a few drops in various drills and double-catches."

So which is it?  Best receiver in camp/catching everyting, or so-so with multiple drops?

(Not blaming Faust...he just posts the stuff.  But man, that's some wildly different accounts of the same practices.)

Without reading both accounts more thoroughly - while it's likely not what the Boston Herald was going for with their statement, both takes could be accurate. Edelman and Amendola are both out, Dobson has been a career underachiever, Washington is 32(?) and the rest of the receivers are rookies. So the bar for "best receiver at Pats minicamp" is pretty low.

 

[Arodin]

Without reading both accounts more thoroughly - while it's likely not what the Boston Herald was going for with their statement, both takes could be accurate. Edelman and Amendola are both out, Dobson has been a career underachiever, Washington is 32(?) and the rest of the receivers are rookies. So the bar for "best receiver at Pats minicamp" is pretty low.

True but "catching everything thrown his way" and "dropping multiple balls" are rather mutually exclusive...

 

[nightmare]

Wed June 8th 10:45 PM Plagued by drops and double catches.
Thurs June 9th 09:16 AM Catching everything thrown his way.

I hit the news blogger everyday just for injury news and ignore
the rest.

 

[Stealthycat]

are we sleeping on Hogan ?

 

[tone1oc]

I think Hogan has a chance to clean up on the sidelines and deep middle, a lot of the big plays that were left on the field last year for the Pats offense.   The more I dig in, the more I like it.  

https://vine.co/v/5eZIQqIhT2W

 

[tombonneau]

Pats Homer. If I draft edelman I'll for sure be taking Hogan late. Heck, even with a healthy edelman he could turn in a LaFell 2014 season. Solid wr3 for nothing. 

 

[Boston]

The first thing I look for in new Patriot WRs is do they look comfortable out there (you usually start hearing rumors about this quickly in camp)...so many times in the past they have brought in WRs who looked on paper like they could contribute yet as soon as you saw them in game situations you just knew they were struggling and that was usually the kiss of death...Hogan (and Mitchell in his short time) looks very comfortable...you could watch his body language on the field last night and see he gets it as far as the Pats O is concerned...if he and Mitchell are legit the Pats O is going to be an absolute nightmare for defenses...with Gronk, Bennett, Edelman, Amendola, Mitchell and Hogan they could be as deep in this area as they have ever been in the Brady era...the Derby kid is also intriguing at TE although he did he have a bad drop last night... 

 

[ldizzle]

The first thing I look for in new Patriot WRs is do they look comfortable out there (you usually start hearing rumors about this quickly in camp)...so many times in the past they have brought in WRs who looked on paper like they could contribute yet as soon as you saw them in game situations you just knew they were struggling and that was usually the kiss of death...Hogan (and Mitchell in his short time) looks very comfortable...you could watch his body language on the field last night and see he gets it as far as the Pats O is concerned...if he and Mitchell are legit the Pats O is going to be an absolute nightmare for defenses...with Gronk, Bennett, Edelman, Amendola, Mitchell and Hogan they could be as deep in this area as they have ever been in the Brady era...the Derby kid is also intriguing at TE although he did he have a bad drop last night... 

And Lewis too once he comes back

 

[Boston]

And Lewis too once he comes back

Absolutely...I was just looking at WR and TE...Lewis puts them over the top...when he is on the field there is nothing defenses can do...that is why they looked pretty much unbeatable when he was healthy last year...huge drop-off to James White...would love to see the Foster kid turn into something legit...

 

[Chaka]

https://vine.co/v/5eZIQqIhT2W

I like that the coverage was pretty tight and he still hauled it in but that was about as perfectly thrown ball as possible.  

I'm high on him because I think he was horribly underutilized in Buf but he is really more of a bet against Edelman starting 16 than the notion that there is enough to go around to sustain Hogan in fantasy on his own.

 

[tone1oc]

I like that the coverage was pretty tight and he still hauled it in but that was about as perfectly thrown ball as possible.  

I'm high on him because I think he was horribly underutilized in Buf but he is really more of a bet against Edelman starting 16 than the notion that there is enough to go around to sustain Hogan in fantasy on his own.

I don't agree with that.  His stat line has been impressive this preseason, but more importantly he is running the money routes and taking advantage of every opportunity and he is out there on 11 personnel.  He is not a backup and will be a fantasy WR3 with some WR2 upside, a better version of '14 Brandon Lafell.  A must own in all formats regardless of Edelman's health. 

 

[tombonneau]

The first thing I look for in new Patriot WRs is do they look comfortable out there (you usually start hearing rumors about this quickly in camp)...so many times in the past they have brought in WRs who looked on paper like they could contribute yet as soon as you saw them in game situations you just knew they were struggling and that was usually the kiss of death...Hogan (and Mitchell in his short time) looks very comfortable...you could watch his body language on the field last night and see he gets it as far as the Pats O is concerned...if he and Mitchell are legit the Pats O is going to be an absolute nightmare for defenses...with Gronk, Bennett, Edelman, Amendola, Mitchell and Hogan they could be as deep in this area as they have ever been in the Brady era...the Derby kid is also intriguing at TE although he did he have a bad drop last night... 

This is spot on. Both Mitchell & Hogan look like instant fits in the Pats O. From a FF POV though, I don't see Hogan having much benefit outside of injury bye week WR3. 

 

[TripItUp]

This is spot on. Both Mitchell & Hogan look like instant fits in the Pats O. From a FF POV though, I don't see Hogan having much benefit outside of injury bye week WR3. 

If Edelman can't stay healthy Hogan becomes a very intriguing PPR play IMHO...could average 8 receptions per game once Brady is back.

 

[tombonneau]

If Edelman can't stay healthy Hogan becomes a very intriguing PPR play IMHO...could average 8 receptions per game once Brady is back.

8 is a bit much. That's almost a 130 catch season. But 4-6 with a few TDs thrown in seems reasonable. I still think with Gronk & Bennett this is similar to the 2TE offense pre-f-tard.

 

[Boston]

With regard to Hogan I think the stats you want to look at are LaFell in 2014...he was 74-953-7 that season...the x-factor using those numbers is Mitchell could be legit and vying for some of those numbers and the Pats did not have a second TE like Bennett that year (as stated by tombonneau)...

 

[Anarchy99]

I'm having a hard time buying into Hogan being a fantasy savior. From what I have seen / read / heard it sounds like:

- Pats will be using a 2 TE set as their base offense, said to be 80% of the time.
- Edelman will start as one of the outside receivers with Mitchell said to be starting on the other side once healthy.
- Hogan thought to be used as a slot guy on 3 WR sets.
- Gronk, Bennett, and Edelman to see a ton of targets.
- White / Lewis to get a decent amount of looks out of the backfield.
- Verdict still out on what Amendola's role will be and if he will ever be healthy enough to play.

If guys are healthy, one has to wonder how much Hogan will be on the field. He's looked good in the preseason, but that's with no Gronk, a handful of plays from Edelman, not much from Bennett, and a rotation of skill position guys, some of which won't even make the team. Bottom line, at this point I don't see Hogan far enough up the food chain to put up fantasy worthy starting numbers (again, if people are healthy).

 

[TripItUp]

If guys are healthy, one has to wonder how much Hogan will be on the field. He's looked good in the preseason, but that's with no Gronk, a handful of plays from Edelman, not much from Bennett, and a rotation of skill position guys, some of which won't even make the team. Bottom line, at this point I don't see Hogan far enough up the food chain to put up fantasy worthy starting numbers (again, if people are healthy).

Agree with this, but Edelman isn't exactly an Ironman.

Hogan feels like a great PPR lottery ticket to me...a player that goes undrafted in most drafts but could be a PPR monster if Edelman gets injured like he always does.

 

[Chaka]

I don't agree with that.  His stat line has been impressive this preseason, but more importantly he is running the money routes and taking advantage of every opportunity and he is out there on 11 personnel.  He is not a backup and will be a fantasy WR3 with some WR2 upside, a better version of '14 Brandon Lafell.  A must own in all formats regardless of Edelman's health. 

Big difference between him with and without Edelman.

Fringe WR#3 vs high end WR#2.

 

[trader jake]

If guys are healthy, one has to wonder how much Hogan will be on the field. He's looked good in the preseason, but that's with no Gronk, a handful of plays from Edelman, not much from Bennett, and a rotation of skill position guys, some of which won't even make the team. Bottom line, at this point I don't see Hogan far enough up the food chain to put up fantasy worthy starting numbers (again, if people are healthy).

Thankfully the Patriots will only have 90% of the roster listed as questionable each week, so owners will have no problem making decisions on Sunday mornings.  

 

[DropKick]

Agree with this, but Edelman isn't exactly an Ironman.

Hogan feels like a great PPR lottery ticket to me...a player that goes undrafted in most drafts but could be a PPR monster if Edelman gets injured like he always does.

I'm in with trip here...  Knew he was a player but with some dings to Gronk and Edelman the opportunity will be there...

 

[Niles Standish]

With regard to Hogan I think the stats you want to look at are LaFell in 2014...he was 74-953-7 that season...the x-factor using those numbers is Mitchell could be legit and vying for some of those numbers and the Pats did not have a second TE like Bennett that year (as stated by tombonneau)...

Lafell in 2014 had a bad start to the season too, I think after week 2 or 3 or something he was top 25.  That being said I think 1) Hogan has a lower TD potential and 2) there are more mouths to feed than in 2014.  That's assuming Brady doesn't start to fall off this season.

A good year for Hogan would be 60/700/3 I think (absent injuries) with potential for a safe WR2 certain weeks with the right injuries.  I think he will probably be worth owning even with other pieces healthy.

 

[Run It Up]

Lafell was dropping everything the first half of that season, but he did turn it on.

I really like Hogan and Mitchell this year my biggest problem is there are gonna be a ton of targets to throw to.

 

[TripItUp]

Lafell was dropping everything the first half of that season, but he did turn it on.

I really like Hogan and Mitchell this year my biggest problem is there are gonna be a ton of targets to throw to.

For how long though...Edelman/Amendola/Gronk...they all miss games every year.

Hogan is a potential spot play PPR gem...with almost no cost.

 

[Run It Up]

I don't disagree, it's just my biggest concern regarding the auxiliary Pats WRs.

I think Hogan and Mitchell both could crack the starting roster, neither share a role with Dola or Edelman so if they are able to do that I think they could be solid WR3s making their adp pretty great I just recognize that even if they do start as the 2 it's possible they are closer to WR 5 range

 

[Anarchy99]

I still think it will be hard for Hogan to get a steady workload unless one of the guys ahead of him on the receiving food chain is out for a significant time. Edelman, Gronk, and Bennett are going to get a lot of targets, and whoever the receiving back is will also see a lot of targets. IMO, Hogan, Amendola, and Mitchell will be fighting over the leftovers, unless there is a game specific game plan and mismatch they are trying to target on a given week.

Looking at 2011 as an example, Welker, Gronk, and Murderer all had top receiving numbers. Branch was next with 51-702-5. And that season, there was hardly any receiving production from other WRs or RBs. Woodhead had 18 receptions, OchoCinco had 15.

 

[CabinFever]

I think Hogan is being undervalued on these boards. Bill LOVES him. Bill also loved Dion Lewis last year. I think there will be more usage than most think. And in a dynasty, he's much younger than everyone else other than Mitchell. 

 

[Anarchy99]

I think Hogan is being undervalued on these boards. Bill LOVES him. Bill also loved Dion Lewis last year. I think there will be more usage than most think. And in a dynasty, he's much younger than everyone else other than Mitchell. 

Again, the Pats base offense is going to be a 2 TE set (said to be 80% of snaps). Edelman will clearly be a regular on one side.Mitchell said to be on the other (if there is someone at all). Develin and a RB in the backfield some plays.

Just like every other year, people are over projecting stats for the Patriots. IMO, they will not be able to support 4 fantasy starters in the passing game (Gronk, Bennett, and Edelman being 3 fantasy starters). Hogan might be a decent fantasy bench player or someone to fill in on byes or for injuries, but I don't see enough food on his plate on a consistent basis.

In 2011, Welker, Gronk, Hernandez accounted for 26 targets per game. That only left 12 targets per game for everyone else. Edelman sees almost as many targets as Welker did, Gronk averages the same number of targets as he did 5 years ago, and IMO Bennett will see what Hernandez got for targets. There are a lot of similarities to 2011. One main different is that Edelman is clearly not going to get nearly 1600 receiving yards like Welker did, but I would project most of those receiving yards to running backs.

 

[CabinFever]

I guess I'm betting Hogan starts over Mitchell. Guess we'll know soon enough! 

 

[Run It Up]

Hogan has played really well but Mitchell was playing better until he hurt his elbow. I think Hogan most likely will start as they ease Mitchell back in but I think it will get messy after that.

 

[Anarchy99]

I guess I'm betting Hogan starts over Mitchell. Guess we'll know soon enough! 

Mitchell had been playing on the outside with the starters before he hurt his elbow. Hogan has been playing in the slot and has mostly been playing with the second unit and subbed in with the starters.

Even if he were to take Mitchell's spot (which for now it does not appear that he has been practicing or playing muck on the outside), the math is still against him. The Pats have averaged 77 receptions by RBs the past 3 seasons.

Avg receptions per game by RB past 3 years: 4.8
Avg receptions per game by Edelman past 3 years: 6.6
Avg receptions per game by Gronk past 3 years: 5.2
Avg receptions per game by Hernandez his last 2 years: 5.4
Total: 22 receptions/game

Patriots average completions per game past 3 years: 24.4

If Bennett takes on the same role as Hernandez did, Hogan (or any other Pats WR) would need injuries to carve out a role or a phase shift in play calling and usage compared to recent seasons.

I'm all ears on alternative outcomes or projections for the Patriots if people want to post them.

 

[tone1oc]

I think Hogan is being undervalued on these boards. Bill LOVES him. Bill also loved Dion Lewis last year. I think there will be more usage than most think. And in a dynasty, he's much younger than everyone else other than Mitchell. 

I completely agree with all of this.  I believe he will open up as the starter on the outside and will be on the field in 2 WR sets.  He is going to be on the field a ton in a high volume offense.  If he can get open he will be very productive.  I see him as a very solid WR3 with upside even if Edelman stays healthy. 

Malcolm Mitchell is very talented, and perhaps he can (ETA: or has) surpass him, but I think Hogan will play well and that Mitchell will take over slot work this year with the versatility to move outside if needed or down the road. 

 

[TripItUp]

I completely agree with all of this.  I believe he will open up as the starter on the outside and will be on the field in 2 WR sets.  He is going to be on the field a ton in a high volume offense.  If he can get open he will be very productive.  I see him as a very solid WR3 with upside even if Edelman stays healthy. 

interesting...

 

[Anarchy99]

interesting...

Again, people are welcome to have varying and differing opinions.

That being said, I am still grasping to see how the Pats can field two fantasy start worthy TEs AND two fantasy start worthy WRs AND a high reception RB all at the same time.

Oh, and we haven't even mentioned that Garappolo is the starter the first 4 weeks.

 

[tone1oc]

Mitchell had been playing on the outside with the starters before he hurt his elbow. Hogan has been playing in the slot and has mostly been playing with the second unit and subbed in with the starters.

Even if he were to take Mitchell's spot (which for now it does not appear that he has been practicing or playing muck on the outside), the math is still against him. The Pats have averaged 77 receptions by RBs the past 3 seasons.

Avg receptions per game by RB past 3 years: 4.8
Avg receptions per game by Edelman past 3 years: 6.6
Avg receptions per game by Gronk past 3 years: 5.2
Avg receptions per game by Hernandez his last 2 years: 5.4
Total: 22 receptions/game

Patriots average completions per game past 3 years: 24.4

If Bennett takes on the same role as Hernandez did, Hogan (or any other Pats WR) would need injuries to carve out a role or a phase shift in play calling and usage compared to recent seasons.

I'm all ears on alternative outcomes or projections for the Patriots if people want to post them.

During Hernandez's best season in 2012, the Pats #2 WR Brandon Lloyd had 134 targets with also Welker sucking up 174 targets.  Gronk did miss 5 games so you could adjust those some for a more real representation of target distribution.  

Last season Scott Chandler had 42 targets, if Bennett does get the utilization of Hernandez in the past you can double that leaving around 40 targets taken from what would have gone to other options.   Spread out over all the receiving options we are talking about maybe 10 targets for Hogan.  2015 was crazy for them for injuries so it's hard to use any one player as a gauge of usage going forward.  But in 2014, Lafell had 119 targets and I think that that number is very attainable for Hogan but probably on an optimistic projection.  

Unless I'm mistaken Hogan started out preseason with a minor shoulder injury, maybe that gave Mitchell a leg up and maybe he did enough to lock in the job on the outside.  I'm purely speculating here but maybe BB is testing his options in the preseason.   The offense asks a lot of every WR on the field so outside vs slot may not be the appropriate for Hogan vs Mitchell as much as it's who is on the field in 2WR sets.

 

[Anarchy99]

During Hernandez's best season in 2012, the Pats #2 WR Brandon Lloyd had 134 targets with also Welker sucking up 174 targets.  Gronk did miss 5 games so you could adjust those some for a more real representation of target distribution.  

Last season Scott Chandler had 42 targets, if Bennett does get the utilization of Hernandez in the past you can double that leaving around 40 targets taken from what would have gone to other options.   Spread out over all the receiving options we are talking about maybe 10 targets for Hogan.  2015 was crazy for them for injuries so it's hard to use any one player as a gauge of usage going forward.  But in 2014, Lafell had 119 targets and I think that that number is very attainable for Hogan but probably on an optimistic projection.  

Unless I'm mistaken Hogan started out preseason with a minor shoulder injury, maybe that gave Mitchell a leg up and maybe he did enough to lock in the job on the outside.  I'm purely speculating here but maybe BB is testing his options in the preseason.   The offense asks a lot of every WR on the field so outside vs slot may not be the appropriate for Hogan vs Mitchell as much as it's who is on the field in 2WR sets.

We can use whatever season or combination of players you want. Yes, LaFell did what he did in 2014. But after Gronk, the rest of the TEs had a total of 29 receptions.The 3rd receiver (Amendola) had 27 receptions. So in 2014, the core of the offense ran through Edelman, Gronk, and LaFell with pretty much no one behind them.

This year, take out LaFell but add in Bennett, there is still Amendola, now there is Hogan and Mitchell, and for now there is still Dobson who may or may not be on the roster but who at least appears healthier (for now).

My overall point is, to project New England, you can't start adding in production without reallocating it from other players. In your example, you want to allocate what LaFell did to Hogan. But then Bennett, Amendola, Mitchell, and Dobson have a combined total of 50 receptions (which I don't see happening).

It's very possible (in fact maybe probable) that guys will get dinged and miss time and Hogan could be the beneficiary. Bottom line, still a lot of mouths to feed and still several guys higher on the receiving tree.

 

[tone1oc]

A few big assumption for Bennett, one is that he is a better receiving option that Hogan, and two that he is going to be targeted like Aaron Hernandez was.  You are assuming that the 2nd TE is going to be targeted more than the 2nd WR (IMO).

I am piecing together utilization from past seasons to try to paint a clearer picture but it is not without consideration to the target pie as a whole.  In 2014, Wright/Hoomanawanui had 39 targets comparable to Chandler's 42 he had last season.  I've taken into consideration a very optimistic projection of the delta between TE2 targets the past few years and what Bennett may get, about 80. 

Amendola is hurt and is the slot receiver and has been relegated to the bench many times,  I believe Mitchell has taken his job but he will rotate in some.  Dobson is not a factor in this offense. 

 

[Anarchy99]

The last time the Patriots had two viable pass catching TEs was 2012 (when both Gronk and Hernandez got hurt). They were targeted 15.5 times per game. The year before (when both were healthy), they were targeted 16 times a game. Over the years, the WR1 (whether Welker or Edelman) has consistently been targeted 9.5-10 times per game).

I understand that people would love Hogan to be the super sleeper that puts up LaFell or Lloyd numbers, but IMO there is a greater likelihood that Bennett is the one that is vastly undervalued in fantasy circles and the one most likely to put up fantasy starter numbers. But it seems very unlikely that BOTH Bennett and Hogan will be consistent fantasy contributors..

 

[thriftyrocker]

Also a high likelihood one of the 3 gets hurts and he bumps right into high relevance again. Will be hard to start him during the first 4 weeks anyway due to the suspension.

 

[Anarchy99]

Also a high likelihood one of the 3 gets hurts and he bumps right into high relevance again. Will be hard to start him during the first 4 weeks anyway due to the suspension.

I am not sure what "high likelihood" means, but prior to last year when he broke his foot, Edelman had missed 2 games over two season. Gronk has missed one game over the past two seasons (he sat out Week 17 in 2014). Prior to his injury last year, Bennett had played 3 years in a row without missing time. Can injuries happen? Sure. Will any of these guys be confused with Arrian Foster or Tony Romo? No.

The truly injury prone Patriots are Amendola and Lewis, neither of which really impact Hogan all that much. Hogan might see some of Amendola's work load if Danny boy were to stay out, but that work load is not very big to begin with.

 

[tone1oc]

I did a team wide projection..  I did combine Tom Brady and Garrapalo as well as James White and Dion Lewis. 


POS


PLAYER


paATTS


paCMP


paPCT


paYDS


paTDS


paINT


ruATTS


ruYDS


ruTDS


PPR


HlfPPR


QB


Brady, Tom NEP (Garrapalo)


624.65


402.3


0.64


4578.7


35.5


9.37


31.2


93.61


1.08


331.62


331.62




POS


PLAYER


TRGS


RECS


recYDS


recYPR


recTDS


ruATTS


ruYDS


ruYPC


ruTDS


PPR


HlfPPR


WR1


Edelman, Julian NEP WR


131.18


87.89


933.97


10.63


6.56


5.85


31.13


5.32


0.08


224.22


180.28


WR2


Hogan, Chris NEP WR


106.19


66.9


796.43


11.9


5.31


0.39


1.89


4.85


0.01


178.63


145.18


WR3


Mitchell, Malcolm NEP WR


62.46


37.48


468.49


12.5


2.5


7.8


37.41


4.8


0.14


103.89


85.15


WR4+


ALL OTHER


34.36


18.35


232.66


12.68


1.37


0


0


0


0


49.86


40.68




POS


PLAYER


TRGS


RECS


recYDS


recYPR


recTDS


PPR


HlfPPR


TE1


Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE


124.93


78.83


1093.13


13.87


11.87


259.35


219.94


TE2


Bennett, Martellus NEP TE


78.08


49.58


558.28


11.26


6.25


142.89


118.1




POS


PLAYER


ruATTS


ruYDS


ruTDS


TRGS


RECS


recYDS


recYPR


recTDS


PPR


HlfPPR


RB1


Blount, LeGarrette NEP RB


198.92


836.64


5.57


6.25


4.58


35.82


7.81


0.12


125.99


123.7


RB2


White, James NEP RB


70.6


286.27


1.91


74.96


54.34


426.51


7.85


1.39


145.42


118.25


RB3


Gaffney, Tyler NEP RB


54.6


213.07


1.58


6.25


4.34


33.46


7.71


0.13


39.28


37.11


RB4+


ALL OTHER


20.67


88.27


0.48


0


0


0


0


0


11.68


11.68

I believe this is very plausible and inline with what will happen.  I think that some of Amendola's production is included with Mitchell as I do think he rotates in and also that Edelman reaching 131 targets probably will not happen.  

178 PPR points would have put him at about WR35 overall last year.

 

[Anarchy99]

So in this scenario basically Amendola, Dobson, Martin, Derby, and Dion Lewis all combine for only 18 receptions on the entire season?
And New England, starting Jimmy G. for 4 games, against a much tougher schedule than last year, will have the same number of passing TD and only 197 fewer passing yards than last year?

Just clarifying . . .