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Chris Hogan, WR (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Raider Nation
- Start date
Braktastic
Footballguy
Well, waivers just ran in one of my dynasty leagues and the winner bid 28.6% of their FAAB budget. Too rich for my blood.
DropKick
Footballguy
tone1oc
Footballguy
Taking risks with waiver money is hardly something that will lose you leagues, especially in some dynasty formats with big rosters. Most of the SP was poo-poo'ing Dion Lewis last offseason too.
I bid 25% and 16% and lost in both.. I'm considering giving a mid 2nd for him. I think there is at least a 50/50 proposition he is the Pats WR2, and we've seen how productive that role is.
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Tau837
Footballguy
Best case scenario seems to be LaFell 2014. But how likely is that? Seems pretty unlikely IMO.
He seems clearly behind Gronk, Edelman, and Lewis for targets, for now. If Amendola stays, he has to compete with Amendola and Martin for the remaining targets. And Amendola will only be gone if that Pats sign another veteran IMO... the Pats aren't rolling into the season with Edelman at WR1, Hogan at WR2, and Martin at WR3, with no other contributing WRs.
Also, for dynasty purposes, when do you assume Brady starts to decline? It will happen sooner or later, and the next QB is a complete unknown.
To place some of these FAAB bids that have been cited, it seems those bidders are banking on LaFell 2014 level performance. Seems like a reach to me.
He seems clearly behind Gronk, Edelman, and Lewis for targets, for now. If Amendola stays, he has to compete with Amendola and Martin for the remaining targets. And Amendola will only be gone if that Pats sign another veteran IMO... the Pats aren't rolling into the season with Edelman at WR1, Hogan at WR2, and Martin at WR3, with no other contributing WRs.
Also, for dynasty purposes, when do you assume Brady starts to decline? It will happen sooner or later, and the next QB is a complete unknown.
To place some of these FAAB bids that have been cited, it seems those bidders are banking on LaFell 2014 level performance. Seems like a reach to me.
tone1oc
Footballguy
All fair questions, and I understand risk.. But we're talking abou $25 blind bid dollars and a mid 2nd rounder, all of that risk is fully baked into his price and I'd argue that this thread is evidence that there isn't much respect for his upside. People are suggesting this is a losing strategy, I'd say on the contraire, these are the types of moves that can win leagues.
discountdoublecheck
Footballguy
Hogan is an intriguing player that could be a sneaky great pick up. Brady could be suspended for the first four, which would make Hogan droppable. I'll see what happens with Brady before going all in on Hogan.
nightmare
Footballguy
I think it was the playbook that held most of the other WR's back(the ones that didn't make it).
If your not where T Brady wants you to be you're not getting the ball.
Hogan can catch and get open-can he learn the playbook?
Also, when W Welker joined the team nobody predicted he would do much of anything.
I'm not saying C Hogan will make an impact fantasy wise but NFL wise he could really
help this team. Martin and Hogan could push Amendola way down the pecking order.
N.E was/is serching for another non smurf to play outside and it might be Hogan.
We have NO IDEA what N.E's 2016 game plan is going to be. Balance? Run or Pass
Heavy? I'm not going to judge anybody spending FA $$ on Hogan this early.
If your not where T Brady wants you to be you're not getting the ball.
Hogan can catch and get open-can he learn the playbook?
Also, when W Welker joined the team nobody predicted he would do much of anything.
I'm not saying C Hogan will make an impact fantasy wise but NFL wise he could really
help this team. Martin and Hogan could push Amendola way down the pecking order.
N.E was/is serching for another non smurf to play outside and it might be Hogan.
We have NO IDEA what N.E's 2016 game plan is going to be. Balance? Run or Pass
Heavy? I'm not going to judge anybody spending FA $$ on Hogan this early.
DropKick
Footballguy
I'm not risk averse but blowing a good percentage (almost 30%) of your budget on a guy with question marks (role in the offense; ability to learn the offense, etc.) this early is a highly debatable tact. Nothing against Hogan or his prospects but lots of things can happen between now next and next season. It would be interesting to hear the next highest bid.
I think a mid second would be a good deal for you but I doubt someone who bid higher would bite on that. I value more than a quarter of my FA budget more than a 2nd in this year's draft.
tone1oc
Footballguy
Depends on your league format and saviness of other owners, but most of mine are at least 24 player rosters and in-season blind bid waiver gems are often times already owned. Even if it wasn't the case it's certainly not a "losing" formula to be aggressive early vs aggressive later.
I would pay $30 blind bid dollars for a mid second rookie pick 10 out of 10 times.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The other thing that isn't exactly wowing me is how the NE media is emphasizing his versatility and his role as a core special teams player. Given that he doesn't return kicks, it makes you wonder what role he will serve on the Patriots. "Key contributor on special teams" and "Top producing second receiver" aren't generally terms applied to the same player. We need to monitor how much they use him on special teams to help decipher his projected role on offense.
DropKick
Footballguy
Just for clarification, when you say $30 you only have $100 for the season, right?
It is a losing formula to overpay for a guy based on a a moment of hype or optimism. I guess if you really like Hogan and the next highest bid was 25% or so then OK - he did what was needed to get him. But if the next highest bid was much lower, then he overpaid. Knowing your league mates is a big part of this...
Again, Hogan could be great and this could work out for him. However, I think in the long run, you lose far more often.
This isn't a great draft class. I'm sure some gems will be had late but I value a mid-second pretty low - another lottery ticket. I'd rather have the money in my pocket because things change dramatically over the course of a season.
tone1oc
Footballguy
In my experience the people who are tightest with their waiver money are typically losers, or probably more accurate that most of the top teams are the most aggressive on the wires. We all have our philosophies on how to use our money, but spending X dollars in March is no different than spending X dollars in October.
Side note.. it's funny, I break down some game clips and discuss how and where I see him fitting in with the Pats, you know actual actionable stuff, and it gets crickets.. Would it kill us to discuss Chris Hogan in this thread instead of grandstanding over a few blind bid dollars?
DropKick
Footballguy
You really don't see a difference between March and October? The guy could be hurt or buried on the depth chart come September. The season can be on the line in October and there is certainly fewer reasons to hold back on spending.
Hogan turns 28 early next season. That might turn off some in the dynasty crowd. Decent size/speed combo. I don't see him surpassing Gronk or Edelman. Still enough balls left in that offense to be productive so maybe the change of scenery is what it takes to take his career to another level.. Belichick likes smart versatile football players. I emphasize football players because he expects them to contribute in many ways. Says a lot to me that he would pursue Hogan. Of course, he sees the Bills twice a year so Hogan is no stranger.
There is always optimism when a WR goes to NE or another high powered offense. We've seen a lot of guys wash out in NE (although most have been past their prime).
I think he a great addition for them and will be moderately productive but likely inconsistent on a weekly basis.
tone1oc
Footballguy
Good lord, why does he have to surpass Gronk or Edelman, or better yet who in the hell would suggest that? You act as if its typical for waiver wire adds to be long term investments. I don't care if others don't like he's 28, I want a bench option that will score points to help me win now.
Even if you have all of your money and get somebody you like, he can get hurt or be a flash in the pan. In most dynasty league the waiver wire is baron of difference makers in season. I'm aggressive every single year in every single league, sometimes it pays off sometimes not so much, but quit pretending like 30% is a game-changing make or break thing. It's absolutely not. I had zero dollars after about week 4 in a league that I finished with best record and most points, I had RB injuries and still was able to pickup guys like Hightower and Draughn for temporary help.
I really think this waiver debate is more about people talking themselves into it being a good decision to sit on your thumbs while I snatch up the WR2 for one of the best offenses in the league. Or he could fail and I'll move on, like I always do.
Even if you have all of your money and get somebody you like, he can get hurt or be a flash in the pan. In most dynasty league the waiver wire is baron of difference makers in season. I'm aggressive every single year in every single league, sometimes it pays off sometimes not so much, but quit pretending like 30% is a game-changing make or break thing. It's absolutely not. I had zero dollars after about week 4 in a league that I finished with best record and most points, I had RB injuries and still was able to pickup guys like Hightower and Draughn for temporary help.
I really think this waiver debate is more about people talking themselves into it being a good decision to sit on your thumbs while I snatch up the WR2 for one of the best offenses in the league. Or he could fail and I'll move on, like I always do.
Braktastic
Footballguy
I don't disagree with the spirit of what you wrote; but there is no way that the bolded above would've happened in any of my dynasty leagues, which is why I always try to have at least some FAAB on hand throughout the season.
tone1oc
Footballguy
Preemptive pickup of Hightower for free and won a $0 bid on Draughn. But I don't play in the most interesting dynasty league in the world.
Braktastic
Footballguy
tone1oc
Footballguy
Brandon Lafell is/was not a transcendent talent. His 74/953/7 stat line (WR21 overall) in 2014 is nothing to sneeze at.
Run It Up
Footballguy
Personally I would bid ~5%, could be nothing. Could be Dola. Could be Welker.
Edelman was a top 5 WR before he broke his foot last year. Lafell was a WR2 for much of 2014. The targets are there they just have to be good enough in the system.
In PPR Edelman and before him Welker were consistently strong fantasy producers and neither are transcendent talents.
Speaking of Edelman. I wonder how excited any of us would be if he had just spent his whole career playing in Buffalo and just got signed by NE? I'm guessing he'd not have done a ton in his career and most of us would have about as much optimism for him as we do for Hogan which is my way of saying while we sure don't know his role in NE I'm also not ready to put a Lafell type cap on his ceiling either.
picking up a WR3 for nothing or a very little amount would very much help you in most leagues when you are staring 3-5 WRs...im kind of thinking/hoping he can put up marvin jones like production from him. If he does start the year off pretty good i will be selling him anyway but picking him up right now is easily worth the risk unless you would have to drop an actual starter or high potential rookie, etc.
tone1oc
Footballguy
I agree.. I think Hogan is a better WR and does what Lafell did in the Pats offense better.
tone1oc
Footballguy
Not really, if Hogan is going to have any value it will be as the starting X.. The Pats will run a lot of 12 personnel, which Hogan would be a part of.
DropKick
Footballguy
Wow, you're a piece of work. I just stated what I think his ceiling is in the pecking order. You need to take a deep breath, learn how to read with comprehension; and accept that other people have different opinions than you.
And nobody cares about your league.
Fox Scream
Footballguy
Keep him on your radar, it's a long season and he might see a nod at some point. Lots of mouths to feed though.
DropKick
Footballguy
I think it took time for Edelman to develop his game. The guy has put in a great deal of work and it has paid off. he is a different player than he was early in his career.menobrown said:
I don't think anyone is down on Hogan; There is a debate about how much free agent budget to burn at this juncture of the season but that is not a knock on Hogan personally. It is eerily similar to the Welker signing; two under-rated WRs coming from a division opponent.
tone1oc
Footballguy
You are so welcome to your opinion, and I'm welcome to tear it to shreds if I want. No need to go name calling, sorry that you take my differing opinion so personally. In your analysis you said "I don't see him surpassing Gronk or Edelman" that is asinine no matter how you break it up. So is the statement "Basis for a new thesis... "How to lose your league in March"" which was the start of this.
Also- at least one poster in this thread cared about my league enough to ask a follow up question.
DropKick
Footballguy
tone1oc
Footballguy
tone1oc
Footballguy
Perhaps one road block out of the way..
A source with knowledge of the situation tells Profootballtalk.com that Danny Amendola "could indeed be gone" from the Patriots.
PFT's Mike Florio suggests Amendola may "first be squeezed to take less (money)," then be released if he doesn't cooperate. Amendola's roster spot has come into question following the additions of pass catchers Chris Hogan and Martellus Bennett. Amendola is owed $5.5 million including salary and bonuses.
A source with knowledge of the situation tells Profootballtalk.com that Danny Amendola "could indeed be gone" from the Patriots.
PFT's Mike Florio suggests Amendola may "first be squeezed to take less (money)," then be released if he doesn't cooperate. Amendola's roster spot has come into question following the additions of pass catchers Chris Hogan and Martellus Bennett. Amendola is owed $5.5 million including salary and bonuses.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Let's try this again. Last year, when the offense was clicking and before the rash of injuries, Edelman was averaging 10 targets a game, Gronk 8.5 targets a game, and Dion Lewis 7 targets a game. That's 25.5 targets per game.
"He who shall not be named" (think murderer) averaged 8 targets per game his last two seasons in NE. Theoretically, if Bennett were used in a similar fashion in terms of targets per game, that brings the target total to 33.5 targets per game.
I am fully aware that every season and every situation fluctuates and no two rosters are alike. Be that as it may, Brady has been averaging about 38 attempts per game. We have not even factored in anything at all for anyone else (Hogan, maybe Amendola, Martin, James White, Dobson if he is still around, perhaps another WR or a rookie, etc.).
Maybe NE will cut down on how much they throw the ball to Edelman, Gronk, and Lewis. Maybe they won't look to Bennett as much as they did to Hernandez. Maybe TB12 will chuck the ball up 50 times a game consistently. The bottom line is that there are A LOT of mouths to feed in NE, and IMO Hogan at this point does not look to be a high enough priority on the progression/target list to me to be in line for fantasy start worthy numbers.
Of course, things can change. People get injured. Players earn more playing time. Receivers may not be in sync with their QB or don't have chemistry. A lot can happen over the course of a preseason or in-season. Hogan COULD change the dynamic and his spot in the pecking order could rise as time goes on.
I've said it before and will say it again. We won't know where things stand until September (and people will need to read and react to roster movement ASAP for dynasty owners). If people want to pick up Hogan and stash him or spend a few FAAB dollars to acquire him, that could pan out, it might not. But I wouldn't be going crazy to try to obtain him just yet.
"He who shall not be named" (think murderer) averaged 8 targets per game his last two seasons in NE. Theoretically, if Bennett were used in a similar fashion in terms of targets per game, that brings the target total to 33.5 targets per game.
I am fully aware that every season and every situation fluctuates and no two rosters are alike. Be that as it may, Brady has been averaging about 38 attempts per game. We have not even factored in anything at all for anyone else (Hogan, maybe Amendola, Martin, James White, Dobson if he is still around, perhaps another WR or a rookie, etc.).
Maybe NE will cut down on how much they throw the ball to Edelman, Gronk, and Lewis. Maybe they won't look to Bennett as much as they did to Hernandez. Maybe TB12 will chuck the ball up 50 times a game consistently. The bottom line is that there are A LOT of mouths to feed in NE, and IMO Hogan at this point does not look to be a high enough priority on the progression/target list to me to be in line for fantasy start worthy numbers.
Of course, things can change. People get injured. Players earn more playing time. Receivers may not be in sync with their QB or don't have chemistry. A lot can happen over the course of a preseason or in-season. Hogan COULD change the dynamic and his spot in the pecking order could rise as time goes on.
I've said it before and will say it again. We won't know where things stand until September (and people will need to read and react to roster movement ASAP for dynasty owners). If people want to pick up Hogan and stash him or spend a few FAAB dollars to acquire him, that could pan out, it might not. But I wouldn't be going crazy to try to obtain him just yet.
tone1oc
Footballguy
This morning I finally got around to running some projections.. A few things to note here, I used a hybrid of 2011-2012 play tendancies when they had Aaron Hernandez because with MB I think it's a more fair representation for 2017, I've also used the last 3 seasons of average to determine point margin per play and also pace, which I think they will go up this year.
I also am framing this through the lens of Hogan filling the WR2/X role, if you don't like that or don't think its possible fine, I'm wearing my rose tinted glasses for this projection. The key thing I wanted to take away is reasonable expectations if he slides into a particular role. Also, this projection was passing centric, and there are a lot of questions marks in the running game, so take the rushing stats with an even smaller grain of salt.
Fantasy scoring: 1 PPR, 1 pt for 25 yds passing, 4 pass TD, 2 pass INT
POS
PLAYER
paATTS
paCOMP
paPCT
paYDS
paTDS
paINT
ruATTS
ruYDS
ruTDS
ADP
RNK14
FP
QB
Brady, Tom
583.93
363.79
0.62
4228.92
35.58
16.06
45.57
170.35
1.70
10.00
15.00
302.63
POS
PLAYER
TRGS
RECS
recYDS
recYPR
recTDS
ruATTS
ruYDS
ruYPC
ruTDS
ADP
RNK14
FP
WR1
Edelman, Julian
128.46
88.79
1209.56
13.73
6.42
4.56
26.35
5.78
0.09
21.00
18.00
251.54
WR2
Hogan, Chris
87.59
54.93
707.06
12.87
5.03
0.00
0.00
4.53
0.00
52.00
55.00
156.81
WR3
Amendola, Danny
29.20
16.64
209.63
12.60
1.23
0.00
0.00
3.59
0.00
71.00
109.00
44.96
WR4+
ALL OTHER
52.55
28.38
364.72
12.85
1.89
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
76.20
POS
PLAYER
TRGS
RECS
recYDS
recYPR
recTDS
ADP
RNK14
FP
TE1
Gronkowski, Rob
105.11
87.27
945.96
14.06
9.46
1.00
6.00
218.62
TE2
Bennett, Martellus
70.07
44.85
459.67
10.25
7.01
34.00
18.00
132.86
POS
PLAYER
ruATTS
ruYDS
ruTDS
TRGS
RECS
recYDS
recYPR
recTDS
ADP
RNK14
FP
RB1
Lewis, Dion
182.29
769.28
4.92
75.91
56.93
512.40
9.00
3.68
30.00
10.00
236.68
RB2
Blount, LeGarrette
164.06
682.51
6.40
17.52
11.39
97.57
8.57
0.42
56.00
31.00
130.32
RB3
41.02
161.19
0.94
17.52
12.61
96.87
7.68
0.45
69.00
87.00
46.76
RB4+
ALL OTHER
18.23
77.84
0.42
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
10.30
So as it applies to Hogan and trying to factor the changes to the personnel with Bennet on board and also with some historical output he is in line for low end WR3 or high end WR4 output. I also think that with the specialization of the NE offense that certain games will feature the passing game whereas certain games are going to be more run centric. So I think you are going to be able to get chunks of production in certain matchups. This will be key to his fantasy success on your roster IMO.
ETA: Screwed up on Gronk's and Edleman's projection initially, fixed that but Brady's totals are now slightly off but didn't want to redo it all because it's not that important to this topic
I also am framing this through the lens of Hogan filling the WR2/X role, if you don't like that or don't think its possible fine, I'm wearing my rose tinted glasses for this projection. The key thing I wanted to take away is reasonable expectations if he slides into a particular role. Also, this projection was passing centric, and there are a lot of questions marks in the running game, so take the rushing stats with an even smaller grain of salt.
Fantasy scoring: 1 PPR, 1 pt for 25 yds passing, 4 pass TD, 2 pass INT
POS
PLAYER
paATTS
paCOMP
paPCT
paYDS
paTDS
paINT
ruATTS
ruYDS
ruTDS
ADP
RNK14
FP
QB
Brady, Tom
583.93
363.79
0.62
4228.92
35.58
16.06
45.57
170.35
1.70
10.00
15.00
302.63
POS
PLAYER
TRGS
RECS
recYDS
recYPR
recTDS
ruATTS
ruYDS
ruYPC
ruTDS
ADP
RNK14
FP
WR1
Edelman, Julian
128.46
88.79
1209.56
13.73
6.42
4.56
26.35
5.78
0.09
21.00
18.00
251.54
WR2
Hogan, Chris
87.59
54.93
707.06
12.87
5.03
0.00
0.00
4.53
0.00
52.00
55.00
156.81
WR3
Amendola, Danny
29.20
16.64
209.63
12.60
1.23
0.00
0.00
3.59
0.00
71.00
109.00
44.96
WR4+
ALL OTHER
52.55
28.38
364.72
12.85
1.89
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
76.20
POS
PLAYER
TRGS
RECS
recYDS
recYPR
recTDS
ADP
RNK14
FP
TE1
Gronkowski, Rob
105.11
87.27
945.96
14.06
9.46
1.00
6.00
218.62
TE2
Bennett, Martellus
70.07
44.85
459.67
10.25
7.01
34.00
18.00
132.86
POS
PLAYER
ruATTS
ruYDS
ruTDS
TRGS
RECS
recYDS
recYPR
recTDS
ADP
RNK14
FP
RB1
Lewis, Dion
182.29
769.28
4.92
75.91
56.93
512.40
9.00
3.68
30.00
10.00
236.68
RB2
Blount, LeGarrette
164.06
682.51
6.40
17.52
11.39
97.57
8.57
0.42
56.00
31.00
130.32
RB3
41.02
161.19
0.94
17.52
12.61
96.87
7.68
0.45
69.00
87.00
46.76
RB4+
ALL OTHER
18.23
77.84
0.42
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
10.30
So as it applies to Hogan and trying to factor the changes to the personnel with Bennet on board and also with some historical output he is in line for low end WR3 or high end WR4 output. I also think that with the specialization of the NE offense that certain games will feature the passing game whereas certain games are going to be more run centric. So I think you are going to be able to get chunks of production in certain matchups. This will be key to his fantasy success on your roster IMO.
ETA: Screwed up on Gronk's and Edleman's projection initially, fixed that but Brady's totals are now slightly off but didn't want to redo it all because it's not that important to this topic
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
I commend anyone that does team projections.That being said, you have some things I would question.
Since taking over for Welker, Edelman has averaged 6.6 receptions per game (that would amount to 106 receptions over a 16 game season). You have him projected for 75.
Since his rookie season, Gronk has averaged 78.3 receiving yards per game (1,252 yards over a 16 game season). You have him slated for 945 yards.
Last year, Lewis averaged 5.1 receptions per game (projected to 82 over a full season). You have him for 56.
My point being, I am not so sure the Patriots will start taking away production from their top line guys to spread it out to others. Similarly, I don't think the roster is fleshed out yet. A lot will depend who gets hurt over the course of the season (and we all know the Patriots players are like magnets to getting banged up).
Since taking over for Welker, Edelman has averaged 6.6 receptions per game (that would amount to 106 receptions over a 16 game season). You have him projected for 75.
Since his rookie season, Gronk has averaged 78.3 receiving yards per game (1,252 yards over a 16 game season). You have him slated for 945 yards.
Last year, Lewis averaged 5.1 receptions per game (projected to 82 over a full season). You have him for 56.
My point being, I am not so sure the Patriots will start taking away production from their top line guys to spread it out to others. Similarly, I don't think the roster is fleshed out yet. A lot will depend who gets hurt over the course of the season (and we all know the Patriots players are like magnets to getting banged up).
tone1oc
Footballguy
Thanks for your input, I appreciate it. You're right with Edelman.. I screwed up with him too (as I did with Gronk initially) and had his catch rate way too low.. If I set that at his career catch rate he's in line for about 88 receptions, not 75. The thing that I was most concerned with was target & TD distribution outside of Hogan as whole. As I said, I tried to use some of the distributions from 2011-2012 when Aaron Hernandez was there, so these projections do have a positive bias towards Bennett. This would explain why the top guys project a little lower than their historical output. The goal was try and flesh out some real expectations with Hogan, and I think that there is a realistic shot he does get to 80-90 targets, which is what I'm hoping for.
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tone1oc
Footballguy
Also should add that in regard to your point with Dion Lewis.. I was bit conservative with his projection as I think that the additions of Hogan/Bennett will limit his usage a bit and the injury concern.. Still, 3.5 receptions and about 5 targets a game is pretty good and his projected 75 targets would of put him in the top 7 among RBs last season. I will concede that if he is healthy those numbers should be much closer to his floor.
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Tau837
Footballguy
^Like Anarchy, I commend you for the team projections. Thanks for posting them. Comments:
- Brady's pass attempts seem low, assuming you are projecting him for 16 games. He has averaged more than 38.5 passing attempts per game over the past 5 seasons, which scales to 616 passing attempts per season. During that same span, he has only had fewer than 611 attempts ina season in 1 of those 5 seasons. Adding another 35 attempts for him will help with the projections for the top targets.
- You have Gronk with a catch rate of 83%. He has never topped 72%, and over the past 3 seasons combined, he has been under 61%. I suppose healthy Edelman, Bennett, Lewis, et al. could open things up a bit for him, but not that much.
- Gronk has averaged 0.81 TDs per regular season game in his career, which scales to 13 over 16 games. And that counts games when he got hurt and/or was coming back from injury at less than 100%. Are you assuming he misses games? If not, your projection seems low for him. It's not like he is aging, he is 26. You have Gronk and Bennett combining for 16 TDs, so the easy fix seems to be to shift a few TDs from Bennett to Gronk. But it could also easily be the case that Hogan won't have the opportunity for 5 TDs, which bears on why you performed this exercise.
- You commented on Edelman, focused on his catch rate. But it seems his targets are possibly another issue, at least if you are projecting him for 16 games. Edelman has averaged more than 9.5 targets per game over the past 3 seasons, again including all regular season games he played during that span. That scales to 153 targets per 16 games.
tone1oc
Footballguy
- Duly noted with Brady, but he did have 582 attempts in 2014 and I do think that they will be a little more run balanced. I also think that the 50 targets for WR4-5 is too high so those targets could be distributed to Edelman/Gronk as well.
- I screwed up Gronk's #'s in the beginning and didn't adjust his Targets correctly, so that 83% is an error. I'm going to revisit this later and redo from scratch, I was trying to finish up before work and rushed and screwed up a few inputs as I was so concerned with trying to has out Hogan and Bennett.
- As far as TD opportunity, I used the league median for TD rate for Hogan so manipulating the target rates of Gronk or Bennet would increase his TD rate, not taking away TDs from Gronk/Bennett. If that's what you meant.
- This is definitely a point of contention, but I think Edelman's targets will take a hit with Bennett, at least that's what I'm projecting when trying to layer some Aaron Hernandez usage in. I think it's fair to say this could be low.
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tone1oc
Footballguy
Updated projections... Some more notes: Brady's INT/Sack rate were too high before, also I adjusted pace to last year instead of average because I feel this is more representative of where they will be next season. I used just under Lafell's 2014 target % for Hogan, and his last 2 season averages for Yds/Target and TD rate.
For Hogan, the updated projections didn't effect him much, he has an uptick in targets and a downtick in TDs. His newest projection would of put him as WR42 overall last season in PPR.
POS
PLAYER
paATTS
paCOMP
paPCT
paYDS
paTDS
paINT
ruATTS
ruYDS
ruTDS
ADP
RNK
FP
QB
Brady, Tom
611.26
404.16
0.66
4762.51
35.39
9.17
35.85
121.42
1.24
10.00
9.00
333.29
POS
PLAYER
TRGS
RECS
recYDS
recYPR
recTDS
ruATTS
ruYDS
ruYPC
ruTDS
ADP
RNK
FP
WR1
Edelman, Julian
146.70
99.76
1144.28
11.47
5.87
8.96
51.83
5.78
0.17
21.00
13.00
255.59
WR2
Hogan, Chris
97.80
62.10
713.95
11.50
4.89
0.00
0.00
4.53
0.00
52.00
46.00
162.84
WR3
Amendola, Danny
48.90
27.87
351.11
12.60
1.71
0.00
0.00
3.59
0.00
71.00
91.00
73.25
WR4+
ALL OTHER
18.34
9.54
114.61
12.02
0.37
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
23.20
POS
PLAYER
TRGS
RECS
recYDS
recYPR
recTDS
ADP
RNK
FP
TE1
Gronkowski, Rob
122.25
79.46
1172.40
14.75
13.45
1.00
1.00
277.39
TE2
Bennett, Martellus
73.35
48.41
513.46
10.61
4.77
34.00
18.00
128.36
POS
PLAYER
ruATTS
ruYDS
ruTDS
TRGS
RECS
recYDS
recYPR
recTDS
ADP
RNK
FP
RB1
Lewis, Dion
179.27
824.66
5.74
85.58
64.18
664.07
10.35
3.89
30.00
7.00
270.81
RB2
Blount, LeGarrette
179.27
745.78
5.38
12.23
8.56
61.13
7.14
0.30
56.00
34.00
123.29
RB3
Bolden, Brandon
35.85
140.91
0.57
6.11
4.28
27.51
6.43
0.16
69.00
101.00
25.50
RB4+
ALL OTHER
8.96
38.27
0.21
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.06
For Hogan, the updated projections didn't effect him much, he has an uptick in targets and a downtick in TDs. His newest projection would of put him as WR42 overall last season in PPR.
POS
PLAYER
paATTS
paCOMP
paPCT
paYDS
paTDS
paINT
ruATTS
ruYDS
ruTDS
ADP
RNK
FP
QB
Brady, Tom
611.26
404.16
0.66
4762.51
35.39
9.17
35.85
121.42
1.24
10.00
9.00
333.29
POS
PLAYER
TRGS
RECS
recYDS
recYPR
recTDS
ruATTS
ruYDS
ruYPC
ruTDS
ADP
RNK
FP
WR1
Edelman, Julian
146.70
99.76
1144.28
11.47
5.87
8.96
51.83
5.78
0.17
21.00
13.00
255.59
WR2
Hogan, Chris
97.80
62.10
713.95
11.50
4.89
0.00
0.00
4.53
0.00
52.00
46.00
162.84
WR3
Amendola, Danny
48.90
27.87
351.11
12.60
1.71
0.00
0.00
3.59
0.00
71.00
91.00
73.25
WR4+
ALL OTHER
18.34
9.54
114.61
12.02
0.37
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
23.20
POS
PLAYER
TRGS
RECS
recYDS
recYPR
recTDS
ADP
RNK
FP
TE1
Gronkowski, Rob
122.25
79.46
1172.40
14.75
13.45
1.00
1.00
277.39
TE2
Bennett, Martellus
73.35
48.41
513.46
10.61
4.77
34.00
18.00
128.36
POS
PLAYER
ruATTS
ruYDS
ruTDS
TRGS
RECS
recYDS
recYPR
recTDS
ADP
RNK
FP
RB1
Lewis, Dion
179.27
824.66
5.74
85.58
64.18
664.07
10.35
3.89
30.00
7.00
270.81
RB2
Blount, LeGarrette
179.27
745.78
5.38
12.23
8.56
61.13
7.14
0.30
56.00
34.00
123.29
RB3
Bolden, Brandon
35.85
140.91
0.57
6.11
4.28
27.51
6.43
0.16
69.00
101.00
25.50
RB4+
ALL OTHER
8.96
38.27
0.21
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.06
Anarchy99
Footballguy
To dig a little deeper, I researched NE's receiving distribution over the past 5 seasons.
Their Top 6 receivers each year averaged a total of 341 receptions, 4128 receiving yards, and 31 TD.
For lack of a better term, "everybody else combined" averaged 55 receptions, 580 receiving yards, and 3 TD.
You have the Top 6 guys generating 382-4559-35 and "everybody else" at 22-203-1.
Their Top 6 receivers each year averaged a total of 341 receptions, 4128 receiving yards, and 31 TD.
For lack of a better term, "everybody else combined" averaged 55 receptions, 580 receiving yards, and 3 TD.
You have the Top 6 guys generating 382-4559-35 and "everybody else" at 22-203-1.
tone1oc
Footballguy
Why top 6 though? Kind of a weird arbitrary cut off and split, but whatever... There are only 5 players in the passing game who figure to be fantasy contributors based on my projections so could you do your split with the top 5?
Also, the top 6 from last year was heavily skewed by injuries. And even if you took that delta of ~30 receptions and ~250 yards and dispersed it over the "Top 6" that would be 5 less receptions and 41 less yards per player over the course of a season, not exactly game changing.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
I listed Top 6 because you listed 6 guys with any semblance of production.
You are in a round about way getting to my point. The #5 receiving option in NE the past 5 seasons averaged 30-371-3. IMO, the pecking order will be Edelman, Gronk, Lewis, Bennett, Hogan and a bunch of limited production guys. We know Bennett can catch 90 balls. We don't know what Hogan can do (but so far he's been limited to 35-40 receptions).
Maybe I'm reading the tea leaves wrong and Hogan will leapfrog Bennett. Amendola being rostered or not is mostly a don't care for the purposes of this discussion. Either way, as far as your projections go, IMO more production will filter down to the "others not listed category." White did well receiving out of the backfield last year, and I expect they will use him in tandem with Lewis and/or in 5 receiver sets. As already mentioned, injuries will play a big role in determining who gets targets.
