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Blake Jarwin, TE, Dallas Cowboys - Dynasty and Redraft Value (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter the lone star
- Start date
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
Got him as my TE 2 in a startup draft recently. So happy Dallas did not take a TE. I think he's going to be, as you said, a top 10 TE, even with those other weapons.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Not sure if there will be enough passes his way, Amari, gallup, Lamb and Zeke...what he is 5th on the target list at best?
Milkman
Footballguy
It doesn't work that way. He's the starting TE. None of those guys play that position. He'll be fine now that Witten is gone.
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Calling him a lock is just a repeat of Finley.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Feels a little strange that I haven't white starred this guy yet considering I'm targeting him everywhere.
Deamon
Footballguy
Is this a joke? A "lock" for Top 10? I don't think it's good to call anything a 'lock' that almost everyone doesn't think will happen. Or even come close to happening.
The 4 FBG staffers have him ranked:
TE18
TE19
TE25
TE26
Milkman
Footballguy
Writing is on the wall on this one. With the new contract, letting Witten walk, not drafting a TE. It's pretty safe to project Jarwin is taking Wittens role over. He's not coming to a new team either. He's been here 3 years working with Dak. He has literally no competition for that role.
Top 10 TE last year needed a 60-650-4 stat line.
Top 10 TE last year needed a 60-650-4 stat line.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
I don't think he's a lock by any means. I think he will be a top 10 TE. I wouldn't take him there in drafts because I don't have to. I just like what I've seen from him and there's not much competition at the TE position for on his team.
Deamon
Footballguy
Want to wager on that? Out of 100 rankings, I'm sure he won't even hit top 10 in even one of them. Saying something that has a 5% chance of happening is a 'lock' is just trying to be showy. This is almost as bad as the Rico projections last year. Jarwin will not be a top 10 lock. If he ends up 11th to 15th ill be impressed.Milkman said:
Milkman
Footballguy
Sure. Nothing crazy but I'll bet something fun like $20. Bets off obviously if we don't play a full season or he misses more than one game.
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Deamon
Footballguy
done.
EDT: Wait, if he misses more than one game? Does that apply to all the guys who finish above him?
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Milkman
Footballguy
Nope. We're betting on him. I don't want to lose a bet just because he gets hurt. Remember I'm the crazy one saying he's a lock for top 10.
If he doesn't get hurt he's a lock for top 10 imo. Iyo I'm like 5% to win.
Deamon
Footballguy
So if Kelce, Ertz, and Kittle get hurt for half the year and Jarwin finishes 10th its okay? But if he gets hurt then its void? haha cmon!
what about a fantasy points per games played (minimum 10 games played).
Milkman
Footballguy
Lol you said I was 5% to win this bet. Asked if I wanted to bet. I said yes and offered terms. It's cool if you don't like those terms you just said you were 95% to win basically. No worries.
Deamon
Footballguy
Yes. 5% chance that he ends up top 10. So that's the bet, will he end top 10.
Will even give you 'per game' points if you're worried about injury.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I also think he finishes top 10.
Mr. Landry
Footballguy
Dallas Goedert was the #10 fantasy TE last year. And he was the #2 TE on his own team. Jason Witten was #11 (and most of you thought he was playing in a wheel chair). Not sure how an obvious upgrade at the position would have a 5% chance of repeating the same performance.
In any case, the two bettors might want to clarify PPR or not. It could make difference...
In any case, the two bettors might want to clarify PPR or not. It could make difference...
Deamon
Footballguy
1. Goedert's top WR's last year were Alshon (played 10 games) and Agholor (played 11 games). Not a single WR cracked 500 yards (Dallas had 3 of them crack 825 yards). Do you think none of Cooper, Gallup, or Lamb will hit 500 yards? Didn't think so.
2. Witten was TE21 on a per game basis in standard, (which he won't agree to because he wants every other TE to have injury risk built into the bet, except for his own). If we use 0.5 PPR, he's still TE15 last year. So yes, I think it will be quite hard for him to increase 5 spots from Witten's numbers, especially with Lamb taking away a lot of targets (more than Cobb did)
Deamon
Footballguy
Mr. Landry
Footballguy
You can argue the "but this's'" or the "but that's". The fact is that Witten was the #11 fantasy TE last year, which I believe was the initial discussion (not points per game) of where Jarwin would fall. If Witten's sixty-two year old ### could almost break the top ten last year, regardless of all the extenuating circumstances (injuries, Eagles sucky ### receivers, etc.), I would think Jarwin would have better than a 5% chance of doing it too. Do I think he's a lock to do it? Hell no. I was merely pointing out that I think a 5% chance of that happening is way too low in my opinion.
Deamon
Footballguy
It's not really arguing but this's. I think Lamb's numbers are going to impact the Dallas Tight End.
We never said PPR. Half PPR is probably the most fair way to do it.
I was fine with not points per game, but Milkman wanted full injury protection on his player and his player only. I don't believe he will fall top 10, and am taking the risk on Kelce, etc getting hurt, so the risk is that Jarwin will too.
The Eagles' sucky ### receivers was in reference to why Goedert was TE10.
Sure maybe 5% is too low. But his claim was 100%. I'm going to say 5% is more closer to the true percentage than 100%. Nearly every FF analyst agrees with that (that 5% is closer than 100%)
Milkman
Footballguy
Of course I was talking PPR. Witten and Jarwin had 94 receptions combined last year.
So I stand by my statement. Jarwin is a lock barring injury to be a top 10 TE in FF this year and Deamon might not agree it's a lock but he's starting to realize it's a hell of a lot higher than 5%.
Obviously he's not going to bet me citing some weird injury clause to every TE in the league which I've never heard of so I'll take that as a small victory and move.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Honestly being a Top 10 TE isn’t saying all that much. The end of the list is guys that stayed healthy, mostly. It takes very minimal production to crack the Top 10 for TEs.
Deamon
Footballguy
He still won't do it. I bet he's not even in the top 4 in receptions on his own team.
matuski
Footballguy
I am betting he gets more targets than one of those listed (Lamb or Gallup).
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Milkman
Footballguy
matuski
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
I just don't see them changing their offense much from last year. They targeted the TE position 120+ times. They signed Jarwin to a respectable contract extension. He's a decent part of their offensive plans moving forward. I see him taking nearly all of Wittens target share. With nothing really behind him it wouldn't surprise me to see him flirt with 100+ targets.
As good as the offense did last year it would be very hard for me to see a head coach with McCarthy's offensive background not putting his fingerprints on the offense in some way.
I think he was head coach in Green Bay for 12 season and he never had a TE hit 100 targets. Finley made it into the 90's twice I think and only other TE to make it to 90 was Graham. I don't think his talent is anywhere close to Finley's, but I would say he's better then 2018 Graham but those targets had a lot to do with an issue Dallas won't have which is no WR's.
So for me if this is a Mike McCarthcy offense 100 targets seems hard to come by or for me to expect out of a TE. I tend to think the odds suggest something more in the line of 80-90 range for Jarwin. They should be a very efficient 80-90 targets due to coverage he'll get and I think he could come in the 50-60 catch range and that might be good enough to make him top 10 but I'm not sure he's going to get to point he does not feel like just a guy and you are always looking to upgrade.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah I'm worried about McCarthy as well. I don't know how much is because of him or Rodgers that they didn't target TEs as much. Or perhaps blind bad luck in terms of some TEs that underwhelmed for their own reasons.
But I think Jarwin will be a big enough part of their offense to be a top 10 TE with weekly TD upside. Which is basically all I'm looking for from a TE in his price range. And if he falls short it's just another cheapish TE that I'm not gonna lose sleep over. I do think his TD upside could be higher than guys like Herndon, Fant, Jonnu Smith, or Ebron who are all nibbling at that top 10. I suppose if people are right about the Cowboys moving on from Cooper then that adds a little longterm value, but I wouldn't bank on that too much.
*almost exclusively talking about TE premium here
DreamTheater
Footballguy
I was able to grab Jarwin for pick 3.9. Thought that was great value...
If you're not starting one of the top 3 TEs, pretty much all of them are in this range.
Terpman22
Footballguy
Meh not trying to devolve here in typical message board fashion, but the big 3 are GREAT, but the next 3 you will be VERY happy with production from any of:
Austin Hooper
Darren Waller
Mark Andrews
Andrews is in my top 3 (with Kittle and Kelce).
Waller just had what was likely to be his career best season and with the WRs that the Raiders drafted, he will be relegated to an afterthought.
Hooper just got traded to a team that wants to run the ball with an OC that doesn't want to use a TE. He was fantastic in Atlanta, but his situation changed for the worse dramatically.
I see both Waller and Hooper finishing this season in the range of the stat line listed above, or worse.
matuski
Footballguy
I think their offense is simple.
1) Run the ball.
2) Dak hit the target the defense gives you.
