Adrian Peterson - Week to Week Expectations (1 Viewer)

[Kenny Powers]

I plan up updating this thread each week until AD is carrying the full load, but as of now what are people thinking for Week 1?Reports are he will only get limited touches, but JAX is also certainly a very winnable game for MIN, so maybe he gets more than expected? I think whatever news comes out Saturday or Sunday will be most telling. If it sounds like more of an even split, is anyone actually going to bench AD this week? One FBG has Gerhart as a strong RB2 right now, the other has AD as a low end RB2, so opinions seem to be all over the place. Looking at a couple other sites, he is mostly an afterthought for Week 1.Also, this positive news came out today.

Minnesota Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier said he has told the defensive players there will be no restrictions on hitting RB Adrian Peterson (knee) during practice Wednesday, Sept. 5. Frazier initially told the players not to hit Peterson at all then had the defenders avoid hitting him below the waist. The team will monitor Peterson's work the next few days and hope to make a decision on his Week 1 status Friday, Sept. 7, or Saturday, Sept. 8.

 

[Funkley]

My guess is 15 carries or so.

 

[FUBAR]

My guess is 15 carries or so.

15 / 75 / 1 seems a reasonable prediction.

 

[Im.A.Wizard]

I have Gerhart starting as my RB2 right now, but going to be very tempting to swap in AP before sunday...

 

[David Yudkin]

My guess is 15 carries or so.

15 / 75 / 1 seems a reasonable prediction.

A 5.0 ypc in his first real outing since coming back seems on the high side to me. I might guess 10-12 carries and 40-45 yards. I think they will ease him back slowly.

 

[Funkley]

My guess is 15 carries or so.

15 / 75 / 1 seems a reasonable prediction.

A 5.0 ypc in his first real outing since coming back seems on the high side to me. I might guess 10-12 carries and 40-45 yards. I think they will ease him back slowly.

I dont disagree but I see this as a close game that Frazier cant afford to lose. AP could end up have a large role by the 3rd qtr. Imho.

 

[Raider Nation]

I'm slightly concerned.

Leading up to the final preseason game, there were reports that Peterson might see some action. The team decided against it, supposedly at the last minute. So presumably, he was close. Now all of a sudden, early in the week before the first real game, the news comes out that he will be severely limited, if he even plays at all.

And this will change by week 2? What is the magic number of days for him to be healed? 10 more days? 30 more?

 

[Funkley]

I'm slightly concerned.Leading up to the final preseason game, there were reports that Peterson might see some action. The team decided against it, supposedly at the last minute. So presumably, he was close. Now all of a sudden, early in the week before the first real game, the news comes out that he will be severely limited, if he even plays at all.And this will change by week 2? What is the magic number of days for him to be healed? 10 more days? 30 more?

Interesting observation. Unreported setback seems unlikely in the 24/7 news age. But it is curious. Fwiw, i've heard nothing locally to suggest that there is a change for the worse.

 

[David Yudkin]

My guess is 15 carries or so.

15 / 75 / 1 seems a reasonable prediction.

A 5.0 ypc in his first real outing since coming back seems on the high side to me. I might guess 10-12 carries and 40-45 yards. I think they will ease him back slowly.

I dont disagree but I see this as a close game that Frazier cant afford to lose. AP could end up have a large role by the 3rd qtr. Imho.

If he can't perform like he used to out of the gate, if he's not in game shape, or if he has lingering pain he may not be able to do a lot Week 1. Peterson has had 17 games over his career when he didn't get 15 carries in a game . . . and that's when he had 2 good knees.IMO, too many people are expecting the old Adrian Peterson to come waltzing out of the locker room and have him be the same guy at 100% from the first snap, and I don't see that happening. (Of course, now that I say that he'll have 28 carries and 140 yards with 2 TD.)

 

[Sabertooth]

I don't think they activate him this week. Late scratch. Are they even allowing people to hit him yet? If not, now is he in "football shape?" Isn't that the only thing that gets you into "football shape?" That's what I keep hearing when people talk about MJD, and he isn't coming off injury.

 

[doegerle]

Peterson (knee) will have no limitations on players hitting him in practice Wednesday, other than to avoid shots to his legs, head coach Leslie Frazier told ESPN 1500 am Twin Cities.

 

[Hoosier16]

I think he gets at most, 5-10 carries in week 1. In week 2, a split with Gerhart and back to a full load in week 3 or 4.

 

[mjr]

I wonder if they might bring him in on a toss or counter play just to see how he does, but I'm not expecting AP to run the ball very much. I'd be surprised if he gets more than 6-8 carries.

 

[DeaLerZ]

Peterson (knee) will have no limitations on players hitting him in practice Wednesday, other than to avoid shots to his legs, head coach Leslie Frazier told ESPN 1500 am Twin Cities.

which is what any coach would say in practice about their star RB... no one wants the guy to get hurt in practice ACL surgery or not....I think we won't know anything until Sunday morning.... and it will be a mess this week trying to figure out what to do...

i think the best thing to do this week unless they say "ADP will get the start and get a full workload".. which i seriously doubt... is start your RB 3 or flex option because if you drafted ADP than you should of planned for this anyways...

if he blows up .. that is a good thing cause than you can start him with confidence next week..

if he gets a few carries and looks good.. that is a good thing because than you know he is closer to carrying a full load

if he doesn't do much than you made the right choice to start your other guy...and than it is the same song and dance next week

if you didn't draft a viable back up option.. than i dont know what to tell you...i guess your just going to have to drive yourself crazy this week trying to figure it out

 

[Mash]

IF he even plays, 8-12 carries, 35-50 yards, no TDs. Like I said in another thread, anything that requires him to move the pile and put leverage on that repaired knee is not a good situation for him. Thus, I don't see him getting GL carries this game. I expect Gerhart/Harvin to get carries inside the 20, and I anticipate the Vikings will be passing a lot this game.

 

[One]

Adrian Peterson (knee) will take upper-body hits without limitations for the first time Wednesday.

Peterson played in no preseason games and Vikings defenders previously weren't allowed to rough him up during practice. Now comes the real test as he figures to take some good shots. But with just four days until the opener, a real role in Week 1 is unrealistic. Coach Leslie Frazier has already said that if Peterson is active against the Jaguars, it will be "with limited exposure.

Source: ESPN 1500 Twin Cities

Not sure if it's conflicting, but it sounds like Peterson has basically been limited to 2-hand touch up until today. Some of you hope for 10+ touches by Sunday? I dunno about that.

 

[Kenny Powers]

IF he even plays, 8-12 carries, 35-50 yards, no TDs. Like I said in another thread, anything that requires him to move the pile and put leverage on that repaired knee is not a good situation for him. Thus, I don't see him getting GL carries this game. I expect Gerhart/Harvin to get carries inside the 20, and I anticipate the Vikings will be passing a lot this game.

This is what Im thinking. I think his upside is really going to be limited this week and he has much more potential to hurt you if you start him.I think for this week, Gerhart is an easy start over him. I didnt get Gerhart, but I still am leaning towards benching AD because Id put his O/U around 6pts and Id guess the under is much more likely.

 

[comfortably numb]

Nothing to add, but just wanted to say good thread addition for the SP

 

[flooredyas]

Gerhart is the play this week. I expect little from AP in this game and having him inactive is what I expect.

Next week? Let's just go one week at a time.

Both Percy and Toby will be the guys to start from Minny this week.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Gerhart Is a RB1

 

[Raider Nation]

Jason La Canfora ‏@JasonLaCanforaFinal determination on AP won't come tile after warmups, but if he plays as expected Vikings aim for 10-15 carries team source says...

I don't know about the rest of you, but if he rushes 12 times for 45 yards and experiences no ill effects after the game, I'll consider it a GREAT outing!

 

[griff321]

I'm slightly concerned.Leading up to the final preseason game, there were reports that Peterson might see some action. The team decided against it, supposedly at the last minute. So presumably, he was close. Now all of a sudden, early in the week before the first real game, the news comes out that he will be severely limited, if he even plays at all.And this will change by week 2? What is the magic number of days for him to be healed? 10 more days? 30 more?

Interesting observation. Unreported setback seems unlikely in the 24/7 news age. But it is curious. Fwiw, i've heard nothing locally to suggest that there is a change for the worse.

Local insider rubes like PA are actually predicting a monster day for AD.

 

[SameSongNDance]

CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora reports that the Vikings are "aiming" to give Adrian Peterson (knee, questionable) 10-15 carries Sunday against Jacksonville if Peterson is cleared to play Sunday morning.

The Vikings still consider Peterson a game-time decision and won't make a "final determination" until after they see him go through warmups. We suspect the 10-15 carries is a bit of an optimistic projection, but it's definitely more than expected. If Peterson gets 10-15 carries, it might only leave 12-16 for Toby Gerhart. Check back for updates throughout Sunday morning, but for now this is shaping up as a Week 1 fantasy situation to avoid.

I would be extremely surprised if he touched the ball 15 times tomorrow but I guess I've seen crazier. Gerhart owners cannot be pleased.

 

[Raider Nation]

Gerhart owners cannot be pleased.

It doesn't impact my Gerhart projections in the least. The previous estimate was 5-10 carries for AD. 10-15 isn't drastically different.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Jason La Canfora ‏@JasonLaCanforaFinal determination on AP won't come tile after warmups, but if he plays as expected Vikings aim for 10-15 carries team source says...

I don't know about the rest of you, but if he rushes 12 times for 45 yards and experiences no ill effects after the game, I'll consider it a GREAT outing!

Yeah, but should you start him in the flex?? Not to mention, he could easily get that plus a TD as well

 

[Kenny Powers]

I'm slightly concerned.Leading up to the final preseason game, there were reports that Peterson might see some action. The team decided against it, supposedly at the last minute. So presumably, he was close. Now all of a sudden, early in the week before the first real game, the news comes out that he will be severely limited, if he even plays at all.And this will change by week 2? What is the magic number of days for him to be healed? 10 more days? 30 more?

Interesting observation. Unreported setback seems unlikely in the 24/7 news age. But it is curious. Fwiw, i've heard nothing locally to suggest that there is a change for the worse.

Local insider rubes like PA are actually predicting a monster day for AD.

whos is PA?

 

[Raider Nation]

I'm slightly concerned.Leading up to the final preseason game, there were reports that Peterson might see some action. The team decided against it, supposedly at the last minute. So presumably, he was close. Now all of a sudden, early in the week before the first real game, the news comes out that he will be severely limited, if he even plays at all.And this will change by week 2? What is the magic number of days for him to be healed? 10 more days? 30 more?

Interesting observation. Unreported setback seems unlikely in the 24/7 news age. But it is curious. Fwiw, i've heard nothing locally to suggest that there is a change for the worse.

Local insider rubes like PA are actually predicting a monster day for AD.

whos is PA?

Paul Allen, I assume.

 

[Raider Nation]

Jason La Canfora ‏@JasonLaCanforaFinal determination on AP won't come tile after warmups, but if he plays as expected Vikings aim for 10-15 carries team source says...

I don't know about the rest of you, but if he rushes 12 times for 45 yards and experiences no ill effects after the game, I'll consider it a GREAT outing!

Yeah, but should you start him in the flex?? Not to mention, he could easily get that plus a TD as well

Only if you're desperate. I'd like to think most people have a preferable option in week 1.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Jason La Canfora ‏@JasonLaCanforaFinal determination on AP won't come tile after warmups, but if he plays as expected Vikings aim for 10-15 carries team source says...

I don't know about the rest of you, but if he rushes 12 times for 45 yards and experiences no ill effects after the game, I'll consider it a GREAT outing!

Yeah, but should you start him in the flex?? Not to mention, he could easily get that plus a TD as well

Only if you're desperate. I'd like to think most people have a preferable option in week 1.

Certainly. My leagues are 2 flexes though so it makes it a little harder than probably most, plus I dont have Gerhart. Leshoure out, Spiller vs a tough Jets D, Jeffery in his first NFL game, ditto for Rod Streater, and then a few backup RBs less viable than Spiller ATM.I suspect most will be in a better situation than me as my team is built more for season long upside than week 1 readyness as far as depth goes, but if theyre declaring AD for 10-15 carries tomorrow morning Im certainly not sitting him. Maybe its virtue to this entire roster, but Im really liking Jeffery tomorrow. I have him in a lot of leagues though and based on FBG's projections for him (as of yesterday at least), I think he's being slept on.

 

[Judge Smails]

I would be shocked if AP gets any serious action. You don't take a guy who hasn't had contact in 9 months then rush him out there in week 1. Makes zero sense. If they do, I predict he goes down again.

 

[timschochet]

Well, as an ADP owner, I was going to bench him this week and start my backup, Shonn Greene in his place. Now I'm hearing 10-15 carries. 15 carries of a healthy ADP is better than Greene. Am I making the right choice here?

 

[Phenix]

I don't think they activate him this week. Late scratch. Are they even allowing people to hit him yet? If not, now is he in "football shape?" Isn't that the only thing that gets you into "football shape?" That's what I keep hearing when people talk about MJD, and he isn't coming off injury.

-WRONG-

 

[Sinn Fein]

I am opting for ADP over Gerhart in one league, but benching ADP for Doug Martin and Ridley in another league.

I figure 40-50 yards, plus a TD. I think they give the goal line carries to Peterson, at least the first drive inside the 5.

 

[Phenix]

If he starts you play him, are we full of noobs here?

You may have better options, but its week one and ADP is starting, is this even a question?

Keep doubting ADP, he will make you pay for it in the long run. Just like all the people who kept passing on him because he wouldn't play week 1.

Well we are finally here and he is playing. I would take ADP on one leg over Gerhart with two.

 

[Sinn Fein]

If he starts you play him, are we full of noobs here?You may have better options, but its week one and ADP is starting, is this even a question?Keep doubting ADP, he will make you pay for it in the long run. Just like all the people who kept passing on him because he wouldn't play week 1.Well we are finally here and he is playing. I would take ADP on one leg over Gerhart with two.

I don't think its that clean cut. Could be a ceremonious start/few carries just to say he got back in the game like a freak of nature, but at the same time not wanting to over use him. I would expect Gerhart to be in if the Vikings are running out the clock (and Gerhart to be in if the Vikings are in hurry-up/catch-up mode).I do expect, if he survives the first few carries, that Peterson will get the first few goal-line carries. After-all, Chilli is gone.

 

[playsccr]

Ap or Hillis

 

[Goat Herders]

8 for 28 in the first half. No touches in the second

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

Still going w Jennings over AP (and Hillis). Fully expect it to be the wrong decision

 

[Eminence]

Richardson over Peterson.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Had to leave AD in the lineup. While the whole starting news thing doesnt change my outlook much, my options which I noted above were nothing that really gave me much thought to bench AD. Id be pretty happy if I got 8-10 points from him.

ETA: Plus if I left him on my bench, Id be more pissed than any other possible start/sit scenario if he blows up, even if I dont see that happening, its MFing Adrian Peterson so who knows.

 

[Raider Nation]

TD. He looks confident and healthy. Awesome.

 

[Phenix]

Yup, he is stud. Few yards or not, he found the EZ 8 months after a blown out knee. You doubt him you will pay.

 

[Sinn Fein]

I am opting for ADP over Gerhart in one league, but benching ADP for Doug Martin and Ridley in another league.I figure 40-50 yards, plus a TD. I think they give the goal line carries to Peterson, at least the first drive inside the 5.

 

[Raider Nation]

Yup, he is stud. Few yards or not, he found the EZ 8 months after a blown out knee. You doubt him you will pay.

 

[Funkley]

 

[Raider Nation]

THANKS DODDS!

 

[Phenix]

If he starts you play him, are we full of noobs here?You may have better options, but its week one and ADP is starting, is this even a question?Keep doubting ADP, he will make you pay for it in the long run. Just like all the people who kept passing on him because he wouldn't play week 1.Well we are finally here and he is playing. I would take ADP on one leg over Gerhart with two.

I don't think its that clean cut. Could be a ceremonious start/few carries just to say he got back in the game like a freak of nature, but at the same time not wanting to over use him. I would expect Gerhart to be in if the Vikings are running out the clock (and Gerhart to be in if the Vikings are in hurry-up/catch-up mode).I do expect, if he survives the first few carries, that Peterson will get the first few goal-line carries. After-all, Chilli is gone.

It is as easy as that.

 

[ratbast]

Never bench AP, AD, or ADP!

 

[Jobber]

My guess is 15 carries or so.

15 / 75 / 1 seems a reasonable prediction.

A 5.0 ypc in his first real outing since coming back seems on the high side to me. I might guess 10-12 carries and 40-45 yards. I think they will ease him back slowly.

I dont disagree but I see this as a close game that Frazier cant afford to lose. AP could end up have a large role by the 3rd qtr. Imho.

If he can't perform like he used to out of the gate, if he's not in game shape, or if he has lingering pain he may not be able to do a lot Week 1. Peterson has had 17 games over his career when he didn't get 15 carries in a game . . . and that's when he had 2 good knees.IMO, too many people are expecting the old Adrian Peterson to come waltzing out of the locker room and have him be the same guy at 100% from the first snap, and I don't see that happening. (Of course, now that I say that he'll have 28 carries and 140 yards with 2 TD.)

He's working on it...

 

[Raider Nation]

I'd be pretty pissed if I wasn't already destroying jon_mx.

Good to see AP back!!! Fingers crossed he feels good after the game.