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QB Deshaun Watson, CLE (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Killing the 6th leg of a $25 6-pick parlay, costing me $800
Baltimore had a double digit lead headed to the 4th. LJax pick-6 was a nightmare.
Unfortunate but I'm very impressed with the toughness he displayed last week in particular and over these last few weeks in general as it sounds like he never should have been back on the field.
What I probably don't understand is why the Browns did not make a run at Dobbs, who we know now was basically free, or Brisset or would have cost a little as it seems they'd have had an inkling of his shoulder issues before the deadline.
What I probably don't understand is why the Browns did not make a run at Dobbs, who we know now was basically free, or Brisset or would have cost a little as it seems they'd have had an inkling of his shoulder issues before the deadline.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That’s the dude I was shocked to see not get moved. WAS doesn’t need him & he’s shown out well as recently as last year. He’s gotta be better than PJ Walker.
Major
Footballguy
Such a bargain.$90M on Spotrac
3 yrs and about $130-$135M left on the contract
Just going on SPotrac
Deshaun Watson | NFL | Spotrac.com
Deshaun Watson contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.www.spotrac.com
Technically $45M in '22, mostly the signing bonus, then $46M this year in a "restructure" bonus.
Pretty sure the browns could have had the 1.01 with the picks they sent to Houston, and selected Stroud (presuming they’d take the “local” Guy).
It's the Browns. Young would have been their selection.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
Karma.
Major
Footballguy
Yep. He's always had a knack for mounting impressive comebacks dating back to his Clemson days.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Other than just a joke, Do you have any reason to actually think that’s the case?Such a bargain.$90M on Spotrac
3 yrs and about $130-$135M left on the contract
Just going on SPotrac
Deshaun Watson | NFL | Spotrac.com
Deshaun Watson contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.
Technically $45M in '22, mostly the signing bonus, then $46M this year in a "restructure" bonus.
Pretty sure the browns could have had the 1.01 with the picks they sent to Houston, and selected Stroud (presuming they’d take the “local” Guy).
It's the Browns. Young would have been their selection.
Besides, I think Bryce could have done MUCH better there than he is in Carolina.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
For Watson or for the Browns?
DJackson10
Footballguy
It’s a real itch isn’t it? For the team and him. I’d say more but I don’t want to get a time out
DJackson10
Footballguy
Money? How about all the draft capital? Look what Hou has turned it into already. This will go down as one of the worst trades ever from a pure football standpoint but when you ad in the off field issues involved with this whole thing it looks like one of the worst trades in nfl history. But the browns will browns no matter who’s there.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Well, they beat my Colts 39-38, in a game I attended, on 2 controversial calls at the end, so I hope they lose every game the rest of the year
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
What teams would trade for Watson right now?
$45M per year left each of the next 3 seasons
-jb-
Footballguy
if they get the browns to cover some of the cost, you never know. Raiders, I guess?
JohnnyU
Footballguy
uh......no one?
Major
Footballguy
Both. Watson for the act and the Browns for rewarding the behavior.
Major
Footballguy
Meh. Casserio has blown most of those picks i.e. Kenyon Green, Metchie and trading the farm for Will Anderson who is good but not worthy of all those picks.
DJackson10
Footballguy
No one. According to my source with the Eagles most teams backed off after realizing how unserious he was handling the whole issue. Eagles sent a PI team down to Houston to talk with Watson and they came back and told Howie and The owner Jeffrey Lurie basically F this guy he shows no remorse and isn’t taking this seriously. Most of his teammates they interviewed called him a terrible leader as well.
Considering the dudes play plus contract abd Browns wanting to recoup a lot of their draft stock I don’t see anyone taking him. Browns outbid themselves and Hou went away laughing. My GM Howie Roseman would be tipping his cap to Houston fleecing Cle like that. Literally no one outside Clevland was talking to Hou by the time that trade happened
DJackson10
Footballguy
I think the Raiders are somewhat smartening up on those things
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I'm liking what I see from O'Connell. He seems to be accurate with his receivers in stride. I see a lot of receivers in the NFL leave a lot of yardage on the field because their QB can't do that.
-OZ-
Footballguy
As long as they beat the colts, sounds great!Well, they beat my Colts 39-38, in a game I attended, on 2 controversial calls at the end, so I hope they lose every game the rest of the year
JohnnyU
Footballguy
haterAs long as they beat the colts, sounds great!Well, they beat my Colts 39-38, in a game I attended, on 2 controversial calls at the end, so I hope they lose every game the rest of the year
WaltonGoggins
Footballguy
Not gonna lie potentially great news for TexansNation
-OZ-
Footballguy
Totally forgot that they had yet another pick coming. They must be glad they kept the browns pick and traded their own for big Willie.
WaltonGoggins
Footballguy
Very although I assume Cardinals wanted Texans first thinking it would be a lock better pick.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
You hate to see it.
Jayded
Footballguy
Worse. Rumor has always been Ryans wanted Will but the owners wanted CJ. They agreed to get both but also knew teams would load the box to come to three to get CJ and it’d have cost them more.
So read it more like CJ is just as likely to be seen as 3 as Will. If they pick CJ at two, less teams were coming up to get Will than CJ was their bet. That also shows a bit of why they were ok giving a lot up, not just for Anderson but to secure the dual package.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Not worse. That’s almost enough to make me like a team. I only hope Ran and Mike work together like that.
GregR
Footballguy
This isn't correct.
Atlanta, Carolina and Cleveland all had to come to agreement of basic terms of a trade meeting Houston's requirements, BEFORE any of them were granted permission to talk to Deshaun. All three did.
Then Deshaun didn't like Cleveland's offer and word was they were out of the running. He was still talking to Carolina and Atlanta, with word that Atlanta was where he would end up, when Cleveland offered the ridiculous contract to get Watson to reconsider.
But 3 teams had agreed in principle to similar trades. It was the contract that differed.
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Nah. They really traded up to get Stroud. He woulda cost more if they took Anderson first and didn’t eliminate some of the bidders.
Dizzy
Footballguy
Really? Dude's a f******g sexual predator... I hope his arm falls off.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
My thoughts exactly. Watson got away with his crimes and Cleveland rewarded it. They both got what they deserve.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
I don’t know why the Raiders were named. They were never interested in Watson. Sorry Browns fans. No team is taking Watson off your hands and the team is stuck with this disaster.
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pinkstapler
Footballguy
Bro, I feel the pain. Had a very similar scenario, $20 6 leg parlay where I bought up the alternate spreads for the 49ers and the Cowboys (had them -28.5 lol) and pushed the odds to give me a +$1k payout and it was taken down by what I thought was the gimme pick, Ravens money line. Least I hit my same game parlay on the Detroit Chargers game where I just bet the overs on about everything you could haha. Yards for Goff, Herbert, ARSB, Allen, and total score. My leg for the Detroit win was voided since it was flat 3, but still brought home $400 or so.Killing the 6th leg of a $25 6-pick parlay, costing me $800
Baltimore had a double digit lead headed to the 4th. LJax pick-6 was a nightmare.
massraider
Footballguy
Kenny Pickett and Deshaun Watson are both averaging exactly 5.5 yards per play since joining their respective teams.
amnesiac
beer is good
how dare you confuse this conversation with facts.
GregR
Footballguy
Soulfly, replying over here as seemed a better spot than the Wild Card game thread the above quote came from. Interesting write up in ESPN article today that was looking at each playoff team and where they stand now, with a lot of detailed context on Watson's 2023.
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On one hand, Browns fans might feel like Watson wasn't a problem. The team went 5-1 with him as the starter and 6-5 with its four other quarterbacks. In his final start, he helped lead the Browns to a 33-31 comeback victory over the top-seeded Ravens, with the Browns scoring 16 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to take home the victory.
It's easy to poke holes in that record, though. Watson is given credit for a 39-38 win over the Colts in which he left the game in the first quarter after starting 1-for-5 with an interception. Three of the wins saw the defense allow a total of six points. The two games in which Watson posted a passer rating over 75.0 were victories over the Titans and Cardinals, who ranked 24th and 32nd, respectively, in QBR allowed.
The game against the Ravens was the one win in which Watson faced a tough defense and had his defense give up more than three points. In that game, he went 20-of-34 for 213 yards with a touchdown and an interception on a pick-six to Kyle Hamilton after 40 seconds. Watson was terrible in the first half before playing much better after halftime; there's no doubting the best two quarters of football he played were his final two of the season, when he went 14-of-14 for 134 yards and a touchdown while adding another first down on a scramble.
I've also seen Browns fans point to Watson's performance in the second half across all of his games as proof he was playing at a much higher level than expected. And certainly, by passer rating, it's again hard to argue: He posted a 116.8 passer rating in the second half of his games this season, which was the second-best mark for any quarterback who attempted at least 150 passes.
The problem -- to stick with passer rating for the purposes of this argument -- is Watson ranked 41st out of those 42 passers in passer rating during the first half of games, where his 63.9 mark was worse than anybody besides Daniel Jones of the Giants. Watson had a 6.6% drop rate in the first half of his games this season, which is among the highest in football, but that fell to 0.0% in the second half. Unless he was really good at giving halftime speeches in which he reminded his teammates to catch his passes, that's some bad luck in the first half and good luck in the second half.
For the second-half success to be something meaningful, we would need to see it as a trend throughout Watson's career as opposed to simply in 2023. In 2022, dropping the sample down to passers with 100 pass attempts to include him, he ranked 39th in passer rating in the first half and 35th in the second half. And during his time with the Texans, he was 10th in passer rating during the first half and fifth after the break. I could see a conclusion where he gets a little better late in games because pass rushes tire and his ability to extend reps on scramble drills plays up, but he's not going to morph into an MVP candidate after halftime in 2024.
The reason why Watson had such a better record than his teammates is the Cleveland defense. Removing drives that resulted in kneel downs, defensive touchdowns and the meaningless Week 18 game in which coach Kevin Stefanski sat his starters most of the way, the Browns averaged 1.9 points per drive in the games in which Watson started. (This includes the first quarter of the Colts game before Watson left injured.) They averaged 1.0 points per drive with Dorian Thompson-Robinson or PJ Walker on the field, but that figure rose by a full point to 2.0 points per drive with Flacco.
Flip that to the defense. Jim Schwartz's unit allowed just 1.0 points per drive during the stretches in which Watson was the team's quarterback. Without him, that figure rose to 1.7 points per drive. I would chalk that up to Garrett's shoulder injury and the subsequent struggles the defense had when they weren't forcing turnovers as opposed to something Watson was doing to make the defense better.
Flacco's offense was better than Watson's on a drive-by-drive basis, even as the Browns battled more injuries around the veteran quarterback. Both players were without right tackle Jack Conklin and running back Nick Chubb for most of the season, but Watson had left tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. for most of his time on the field. Flacco even lit up the Jets without receiver Amari Cooper, who didn't finish the regular season after his mammoth Week 16 game against the Texans and then didn't made an impact in the rematch Saturday.
One of the reasons why Flacco was better? He fits what Stefanski does best on offense. Going back to his time in Minnesota, Stefanski has gotten the most out of quarterbacks when they've operated with heavy doses of play-action. Kirk Cousins and Baker Mayfield had their best seasons when Stefanski took over playcalling and upped their play-action rates. Both Stefanski and Houston offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik learned from different branches of the Gary Kubiak/Kyle Shanahan tree, and Saturday's game was almost funny to watch given that so many of its big plays came off the same play-action boot flood concept that has permeated that offensive tree for decades.
Watson has gotten a small boost from play-action, but the Browns don't use it with their franchise quarterback as often. His QBR this season jumped from 34.2 without play-action to 40.1 with a play-fake attached, but Stefanski had play-action involved on only 23.4% of his pass attempts. That's just over the leaguewide rate, which is 23.3%.
With Flacco, that play-fake percentage jumped to 30.4%. And while Watson and Flacco were basically identical in terms of QBR without play-action, Flacco's QBR skyrocketed with a play-fake. The Super Bowl XLVII MVP posted a 78.7 QBR with play-action and a 33.3 mark without it this season. He finished with a QBR five points ahead of Watson, entirely because of what he did on those play-action passes.
(Went over character limit so had to cut it. 1/2)
GregR
Footballguy
2/2
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One of the related issues here is Watson doesn't prefer to operate from under center, which changes up the run game and forces a different sort of play-action. He took just over 16% of his dropbacks from under center this season and struggled mightily as a passer there, posting a 10.1 QBR. Flacco took more than 27% of his dropbacks under center and had a 64.9 QBR. In 2020, Mayfield's best season with Stefanski, he was under center on nearly 33% of his dropbacks. Cousins was under center more than 49% of the time in Stefanski's season as Vikings coordinator in 2019.
The league as a whole is more comfortable operating out of Pistol and Shotgun than ever before. Teams can certainly run a coherent play-action attack without being under center, but the impact is muted. Under center, the QBR with and without play-action nearly doubles; quarterbacks in 2023 posted a 33.3 QBR without a play-fake and a 60.2 mark with one. In the Pistol or Shotgun, the effects are much less significant; quarterbacks posted a 55.1 QBR without play-action and a 63.9 mark with a play-fake.
Coaches should mold their offenses to the players and not vice versa, and so the Browns need to build and employ the best offense they can to play to Watson's strengths. I would argue that neither the 2022 nor 2023 situations have been ideal for him given that he was coming off a suspension last season and battling injuries and missing players this season. The Browns surely wouldn't have made the trade for him if they knew they were getting the quarterback who has struggled to both stay healthy and play effective football for an extended period of time since arriving in Cleveland.
The Browns can't undo the trade, but would Flacco's success lead them to give up on Watson? He is owed $138 million over the next three seasons, all of which is guaranteed, but the structure of his contract would make him moveable. The Browns can't cut him, but if they found a trade partner, they would owe $62.9 million in dead money, which is essentially what they'll owe for him to be on the roster next season. Their cap would be clear of Watson in 2025, and while they would be down three first-round picks from a disastrous deal, they would be able to move forward without a player accused of more than two dozen cases of sexual misconduct on their roster.
While there's no way the Browns would be able to expect a significant return for Watson after two disappointing seasons, would they find another team willing to accept the responsibility of his deal for the cost of a conditional seventh-round pick? I would say no, but I've learned never to underestimate how desperate teams can talk themselves into quarterbacks. The Bears were willing to eat $22 million in guarantees to get Nick Foles on their roster when his contract was underwater with the Jaguars in 2020.
And for the Browns, if they don't get financial flexibility from moving on from Watson, they're about to be in a difficult bind. Cooper, Wills, cornerback Greg Newsome and linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah are all free agents after next season. They are missing significant draft capital after the trade for Watson and will be missing multiple cost-controlled starters from their roster, meaning they'll have to go out and find those guys in free agency. They'll likely cut Conklin and ask Chubb to take a pay cut this offseason, but this might be the best version of the Browns we see for the next few years if they don't make any changes.
Stefanski already has come out and suggested Watson will be their starter heading into the offseason, which is no surprise. What happens next will be fascinating. The Browns should bring Flacco back based on his performance, but will a 38-year-old quarterback who has made more than $175 million in his career really want to come back to sit behind Watson? If he struggles again, would Stefanski bench him for Flacco? And if he doesn't, will the fans and the Browns' locker room be willing to accept an inferior quarterback, knowing they've had more success with the guy on the sidelines? This has been a difficult season for the Browns, but what happens next might be hardest of all.
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One of the related issues here is Watson doesn't prefer to operate from under center, which changes up the run game and forces a different sort of play-action. He took just over 16% of his dropbacks from under center this season and struggled mightily as a passer there, posting a 10.1 QBR. Flacco took more than 27% of his dropbacks under center and had a 64.9 QBR. In 2020, Mayfield's best season with Stefanski, he was under center on nearly 33% of his dropbacks. Cousins was under center more than 49% of the time in Stefanski's season as Vikings coordinator in 2019.
The league as a whole is more comfortable operating out of Pistol and Shotgun than ever before. Teams can certainly run a coherent play-action attack without being under center, but the impact is muted. Under center, the QBR with and without play-action nearly doubles; quarterbacks in 2023 posted a 33.3 QBR without a play-fake and a 60.2 mark with one. In the Pistol or Shotgun, the effects are much less significant; quarterbacks posted a 55.1 QBR without play-action and a 63.9 mark with a play-fake.
Coaches should mold their offenses to the players and not vice versa, and so the Browns need to build and employ the best offense they can to play to Watson's strengths. I would argue that neither the 2022 nor 2023 situations have been ideal for him given that he was coming off a suspension last season and battling injuries and missing players this season. The Browns surely wouldn't have made the trade for him if they knew they were getting the quarterback who has struggled to both stay healthy and play effective football for an extended period of time since arriving in Cleveland.
The Browns can't undo the trade, but would Flacco's success lead them to give up on Watson? He is owed $138 million over the next three seasons, all of which is guaranteed, but the structure of his contract would make him moveable. The Browns can't cut him, but if they found a trade partner, they would owe $62.9 million in dead money, which is essentially what they'll owe for him to be on the roster next season. Their cap would be clear of Watson in 2025, and while they would be down three first-round picks from a disastrous deal, they would be able to move forward without a player accused of more than two dozen cases of sexual misconduct on their roster.
While there's no way the Browns would be able to expect a significant return for Watson after two disappointing seasons, would they find another team willing to accept the responsibility of his deal for the cost of a conditional seventh-round pick? I would say no, but I've learned never to underestimate how desperate teams can talk themselves into quarterbacks. The Bears were willing to eat $22 million in guarantees to get Nick Foles on their roster when his contract was underwater with the Jaguars in 2020.
And for the Browns, if they don't get financial flexibility from moving on from Watson, they're about to be in a difficult bind. Cooper, Wills, cornerback Greg Newsome and linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah are all free agents after next season. They are missing significant draft capital after the trade for Watson and will be missing multiple cost-controlled starters from their roster, meaning they'll have to go out and find those guys in free agency. They'll likely cut Conklin and ask Chubb to take a pay cut this offseason, but this might be the best version of the Browns we see for the next few years if they don't make any changes.
Stefanski already has come out and suggested Watson will be their starter heading into the offseason, which is no surprise. What happens next will be fascinating. The Browns should bring Flacco back based on his performance, but will a 38-year-old quarterback who has made more than $175 million in his career really want to come back to sit behind Watson? If he struggles again, would Stefanski bench him for Flacco? And if he doesn't, will the fans and the Browns' locker room be willing to accept an inferior quarterback, knowing they've had more success with the guy on the sidelines? This has been a difficult season for the Browns, but what happens next might be hardest of all.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I don't see a team willing to take on the contract, the lack of production, and the PR hit to acquire Watson. His passer rating dropped off significantly . . . from 104.5 in his time in HOU to 81.7 in his 12 starts in CLE. Sure, the Browns went 8-4 in those games, but that's more on the defense than on Watson. Assuming the Browns want to eat the $64M cap hit to trade him, what team would have any interest in taking on a 3-year contract with all $138M guaranteed? CLE would have to be the one throwing in draft picks and money for a team to have any interest in bringing in Watson . . . which would only increase the cap charge to the Browns.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
There's no controversy. It's Watson.
Flacco won't be on the team next year.
We saw the real Flacco this weekend. Love what he did for us, but his upside is quite low, sorry to say
Flacco won't be on the team next year.
We saw the real Flacco this weekend. Love what he did for us, but his upside is quite low, sorry to say
abrunn1133
Footballguy
The upside was the best QB in the NFL for 4-5 weeks. How is that too low?
-OZ-
Footballguy
Joe wasn’t. Lamar was and it isn’t close.
abrunn1133
Footballguy
If it was t even “close”, please explain to me which QB had a better last 5 weeks of the season, and by what metric.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
He probably shoulda thrown 5 more ints. There was certainly some luck involved.
Theres a reason he wasn't on a team man.
I think he'd look horrible in a full season, and another year older
-OZ-
Footballguy
For one, 12/2 vs 13/8
Another, one playoff team (4 seed) beat vs 3 (1, 6, 6)
Joe was a great story. Many of us were cheering for him and he managed to get us to actually want the Browns to win (that’s a Superman feat) but he didn’t play as great as his FF stats would lead us to think. I know I enjoyed the story. I started him most of those weeks and he helped get me into the championship.
abrunn1133
Footballguy
Let’s say he led the league in TD passes and yardage during that stretch. You feel that ceiling is too low? Then add that he had a 2.5MIL contract, which is $50MIL less/year than Lamar, is the ceiling still too low. Without looking, I think the Browns had 4 starting QBs this year and none of the other 3 came remotely close to the production that Flacco had. I get that he is older, but production is production.
