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WR Josh Palmer, LAC (1 Viewer)

Josh Palmer caught 8-of-10 targets for 106 yards in the Chargers' Week 9 win over the Falcons.​


A fumble fiasco with less than a minute left in the game knocked the Chargers out of field goal range, but Palmer saved the day with a 22-yard reception that set up Cameron Dicker for the game-winner. With both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen out, Palmer stepped up and led the Chargers in all receiving categories. His 10 targets were good for a 23 percent target share. Palmer will remain in the WR2 range for his Week 10 matchup with the 49ers.
- NBCSportsEDGE
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Josh Palmer caught 3-of-8 targets for 44 yards in the Chargers' Week 10 loss to the 49ers.​

The towering speedster never seemed to get anything going against the zone-heavy 49ers defense, appearing routinely out of sync with his signal-caller on his way to securing only 3-of-8 targets. Furthermore, quarterback Justin Herbert stopped looking to Palmer as his first read in the second half which highlights the lack of cohesion between the two under the bright lights of Sunday Night Football. Palmer should maintain his spot in the starting lineup with the season-ending injury to Jaylen Guyton, even when Mike Williams and Keenan Allen eventually return. Consider Palmer a hit-or-miss WR3 with upside as the Chargers prepare to host the AFC-leading Chiefs in Week 11.
Nov 13, 2022, 11:50 PM ET
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Josh Palmer caught 8-of-10 targets for 106 yards and two touchdowns in the Chargers' Week 11 loss to the Chiefs.​

Palmer started his day off hot with a 50-yard touchdown catch on the Chargers' opening possession of the game. He was relied on heavily for the remainder of the game after Mike Williams left after only one reception with an aggravation of his ankle injury, scoring his second touchdown with only 1:46 left to play to put the Chargers ahead. Patrick Mahomes would answer just 1:15 later with his third touchdown pass to tight end Travis Kelce to send the Chargers to their second consecutive disappointing loss. Consider Palmer a WR2 for as long as either Mike Williams or Keenan Allen remain out of the lineup.
Nov 21, 2022, 12:14 AM ET
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houston said:
I was a believer, but just didn't see it last year. He looked slow, didn't have great hands. Every catch seemed like an adventure. Maybe he improves this year, but I think it will be tough for him to thrive given all the other talent on his team.
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Palmer hauled in 72 of those adventures last season. Not bad. I agree with you, however, that it will be difficult for Palmer to thrive alongside the other talented options in LA, but if either Keenan Allen or Mike Williams is sidelined, Palmer has WR2 fantasy value, and perhaps even flex value otherwise.
 
socrates said:
houston said:
I was a believer, but just didn't see it last year. He looked slow, didn't have great hands. Every catch seemed like an adventure. Maybe he improves this year, but I think it will be tough for him to thrive given all the other talent on his team.
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Palmer hauled in 72 of those adventures last season. Not bad. I agree with you, however, that it will be difficult for Palmer to thrive alongside the other talented options in LA, but if either Keenan Allen or Mike Williams is sidelined, Palmer has WR2 fantasy value, and perhaps even flex value otherwise.
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I dunno, he seems like he will be the 4th pass catching offense on the team, and maybe even 5th.
 
Deamon said:
socrates said:
houston said:
I was a believer, but just didn't see it last year. He looked slow, didn't have great hands. Every catch seemed like an adventure. Maybe he improves this year, but I think it will be tough for him to thrive given all the other talent on his team.
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Palmer hauled in 72 of those adventures last season. Not bad. I agree with you, however, that it will be difficult for Palmer to thrive alongside the other talented options in LA, but if either Keenan Allen or Mike Williams is sidelined, Palmer has WR2 fantasy value, and perhaps even flex value otherwise.
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I dunno, he seems like he will be the 4th pass catching offense on the team, and maybe even 5th.
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I agree that Palmer will likely be behind Allen, Williams and Johnston at WR, as well as RB Ekeler, and perhaps even TE Everett when everyone is healthy and playing. Without injuries ahead of him, Palmer offers little value. Perhaps the "even flex value" when all options are available comment is a bit of optimism on my part.
 
If all Chargers players are healthy, I think Palmer will be WR4 and 6th in the target pecking order (behind Allen, Williams, Ekeler, Johnston, Everett).

If all Chargers players are healthy, it would even be possible for him not to be active on every gameday. If Guyton is healthy, I think the Chargers will keep 6 WRs on final 53 man roster. In that case, one of them will almost certainly be inactive on gamedays. Allen, Williams, and Davis (special teams) will never be inactive if healthy, and I seriously doubt first round pick Johnston ever will be. That means Palmer or Guyton would typically be inactive. It would probably most often be Guyton, but Guyton offers more deep speed and potentially more special teams value than Palmer, so it isn't a given.
 
The Athletic’s Daniel Popper believes Josh Palmer will be the Chargers’ No. 3 wideout to start the season.
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Palmer, Popper said, “will get a majority of the snaps as that third receiver early in the season.” Presumably this means rookie Quentin Johnston — taken in the first round of the 2023 draft — will be relegated to a rotational role in the regular season’s early going. It’s quite the surprise, and may be related to Johnston’s immense preseason struggles. Palmer is a steady if unexciting option for LA’s offense. If he is indeed the team’s WR3, Johnston won’t be usable for fantasy managers in Week 1 against the Dolphins.
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IMO it is an overstatement to say that Johnston had "immense preseason struggles." According to PFF, there were 56 WRs who had at least 10 preseason targets. Among those players:
  • Johnston's grade on offense ranked #5
  • Johnston's passer rating when targeted ranked #6
  • Johnston had 1 drop in 11 targets, so the drops narrative is overblown
I like Palmer fine, but they didn't draft Johnston in the first round to sit on the sidelines.
 
JohnnyU said:
barackdhouse said:
One of the guys that I cannot draft enough of. Not saying he is going to do anything special but he is just too easy to draft.
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He was just dropped in one of my DEVY leagues. I probably won’t put in a bid.
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That quote of mine was from last summer. I was bigger on him then than I am now although it sounds like Quentin Johnson needs more time. Palmer is only going into his 3rd year and is at least solid enough to be the #3 on one of the best offenses in the league. If he were on the end of your bench and they're playing KC week 6, and if it looks like he is the legit #3 (which I know doesn't really mean a ton), he is a guy you probably wouldn't mind throwing in there.

The real path to relevance of course is an injury in front of him but he is a guy I've largely moved on from since this time last year. Definitely within the range of outcomes for him to take a step forward and to do very well this year, though.
 
I’ll always find myself rooting for Palmer. He’s definitely a guy the team can count on but he isn’t the swing for the fences Johnston is. That said, Johnstons college tape was definitely a mixed bag of wow’s and hmmm’s.
 
It’s all about making plays with the opportunities you have. Johnston has competition but Allen, Williams and Palmer are known quantities but Johnston is the future…the question is when.
 
Rookiefever said:
I’m not really sure why but qj gives me a bit of nkeal harry flashbacks.
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I am hesitant as well. I don’t think his floor is that low with Herbert at QB, but he is far from a sure thing. I hope someday the Chargers add a field stretcher to match the strengths of Herbert’s ability to push the ball down the field.
 
Dropped him in dynasty last week- you're welcome everyone! PPR wr3/4. Just don't think last year was great and he got a tipped ball! Yippee
 
Hesitant to trust any Chargers named Joshua. That said Palmer seems like the floor option whereas Johnston is the ceiling option, so it comes down to a matter of preference.
 
Josh Palmer caught 4-of-7 targets for 66 yards and a touchdown in the Chargers’ Week 3 win over the Vikings.

Palmer finally welcomed himself to the season after entering the contest with four grabs for 17 scoreless yards. Palmer made his presence felt in a negative way when he lost a second quarter fumble, though his fourth quarter score put the Bolts ahead 28-24 for what would prove to be for good. Palmer was the beneficiary of a tip-drill grab. Palmer’s more productive day came as Mike Williams suffered a knee injury. He could become a usage-based WR4 if Williams is forced to miss time.
- Rotoworld
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From PFF:
  • After the injury, Joshua Palmer became an every-down player, playing 11 of a possible 13 snaps including every passing play.
  • Palmer will be among the top waiver wire targets this week, especially if the injury is serious.

I get that QJ is the more explosive player, but there's the right guy and the right-now guy. Give me the right-now guy to help stabilize my Flex spot and the right guy 6-8 weeks from now because someone got tired of him not producing and I grabbed him off waivers. Johnson isn't ready yet, Palmer is.
 
For those of us who were stuck in the layer of hell that is the Istanbul Airport yesterday...any reports on Palmer's play? On paper, the target volume looks good, but I'm sure there's more to the story.
 
rschroeder1 said:
For those of us who were stuck in the layer of hell that is the Istanbul Airport yesterday...any reports on Palmer's play? On paper, the target volume looks good, but I'm sure there's more to the story.
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It wasn't a great game but he led the WR group in snap % with 86% and he led the team in targets. Week-over-week you have to expect Keenan to lead the team in targets but Palmer appears to be the clear #2 WR. Now the concern is how Herbert's broken finger (non-throwing hand) impacts the offense.
 
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports Joshua Palmer (groin) is expected to play in the Chargers’ Week 6 matchup against the Cowboys.

Palmer was a late add to the team’s injury report on Sunday, but appears ready to go in what could be an explosive Monday night affair. The last time we saw Palmer was in Week 4, when Justin Herbert targeted him eight times, resulting in a 3/77 performance against the Raiders. It was the Chargers’ first game without Mike Williams, but Palmer should continue to see strong volume in a passing attack that’s throwing at a 59 percent rate in neutral game scripts. Palmer will have high-end WR3 upside against the Cowboys.
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SD Homers - did he practice today? If he doesn't get in a practice THU/FRI I just gotta assume they're holding him out on the late game Sunday.
 
Joshua Palmer (knee) is questionable for Week 8 against the Bears.

Palmer did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday but was upgraded to a limited practice on Friday. Barring an update on him before Sunday afternoon, he will be a true game-time call for LA’s Sunday night matchup with the Bears. Playing in the late window means fantasy managers will need a backup plan. Quentin Johnston, who has likely been cut in many leagues after failing to do anything in Mike Williams’ absence, would be the natural fallback plan.
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Faust said:
Joshua Palmer (knee) is questionable for Week 8 against the Bears.

Palmer did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday but was upgraded to a limited practice on Friday. Barring an update on him before Sunday afternoon, he will be a true game-time call for LA’s Sunday night matchup with the Bears. Playing in the late window means fantasy managers will need a backup plan. Quentin Johnston, who has likely been cut in many leagues after failing to do anything in Mike Williams’ absence, would be the natural fallback plan.
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Ouch. Sunday night GTD is never fun.

And I can’t imagine there’s a lot of good options on Bears, Raiders, Lions that aren’t already owned… unless you own them of course.
 
Looks like his brief time in the sun is fading. Clearly hurting and Quentin is starting to pop. With the Jets up next week, seems like a drop candidate.
 
zamboni said:
Looks like his brief time in the sun is fading. Clearly hurting and Quentin is starting to pop. With the Jets up next week, seems like a drop candidate.
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And Guyton will be back soon... he'll take some snaps from someone, and it won't be Allen.

But 3 WR sets will be the norm all season for the Chargers, with their weakness at TE and behind Ekeler at RB and carrying no FB. Whether or not Palmer is droppable is league-specific.
 
zamboni said:
Looks like his brief time in the sun is fading. Clearly hurting and Quentin is starting to pop. With the Jets up next week, seems like a drop candidate.
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I think this is a major overreaction.

In the Dallas game, Palmer for all intents and purposes post a 7 catch, 100+ yard game, if it were not for a bizarre collection of illegal formation fouls that took away his big games. It's not as if illegal formation is something that drove the outcome of those plays like an offensive holding call or offensive pass interference.

He followed up that game with a career best against KC.

As for Johnston, I saw nothing yesterday that screamed "wow." He made a number of short, wide-open catches and one back shoulder throw - against abjectly the worst team in football (sorry, Bears fan here). The Chargers did whatever they wanted.

Not to verge into a Johnston thread post, but the end zone jump ball against Jaylon Johnson would be concerning for me if I were a Johnston owner. There was nothing about that play that screamed "star in the making."

All in all, I'm holding Palmer confidently unless there's bad news regarding the injury.
 
zamboni said:
menobrown said:
rschroeder1 said:
I think this is a major overreaction.
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Massive overreaction.

All about his health but I think he's clearly the #2 if that's good.
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Not so sure we can say clearly the #2, perhaps 2A/2B. Palmer has played well but he hasn’t taken that step before and maybe the light came on for QJ. We’ll see, health depending on Palmer.
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I'm sure of what I said and I disagree that Palmer has not taken a step when Williams has been out.
 
zamboni said:
menobrown said:
rschroeder1 said:
I think this is a major overreaction.
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Massive overreaction.

All about his health but I think he's clearly the #2 if that's good.
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Not so sure we can say clearly the #2, perhaps 2A/2B. Palmer has played well but he hasn’t taken that step before and maybe the light came on for QJ. We’ll see, health depending on Palmer.
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Of course it depends on health, but I feel like the goalposts are moving all over the place here.

True, Palmer may not have capitalized on opportunities last year, but "maybe the light came on" would definitely describe Palmer's three non-injured games since Williams left with injury. 8-7-7 target volume, and that excludes 3 or 4 completions/targets called back by penalty against Dallas.

Excluding the plays called back against Dallas, Palmer averaged 90 receiving yards per game in Weeks 4, 6 and 7.

If I recall correctly, Johnston made one downfield catch on Sunday night.

We all have to engage in speculative plays over the cost of a fantasy season, but if we're guessing between Palmer and Johnston, injuries excluded, one of the two has definitely "broken out" already.
 
IMO as a Chargers fan who follows the team closely:
  • It seems reasonable to expect that Johnston's snaps will increase steadily over the remainder of the season, at least by a modest amount, assuming no injuries and assuming he continues to perform at least as well as he did last night.
  • It seems reasonable to expect that Guyton will be back within the next week or two and within a few weeks will have a non-trivial amount of snaps. He played just over 50% of the snaps when last healthy in 2021. I'm not expecting that many, but I am expecting it to be non-trivial, as he is the only experienced deep threat WR with real speed on the team.
I'm sure Palmer will continue to get plenty of snaps barring injury, but he has gotten 87% of the offensive snaps in the last 4 games without Williams. I will be surprised if that continues the rest of the season unless other WRs miss games due to injury. IMO that implies his target share will likely be less than it was in weeks 4, 6, and 7.
 
Just Win Baby said:
I'm sure Palmer will continue to get plenty of snaps barring injury, but he has gotten 87% of the offensive snaps in the last 4 games without Williams. I will be surprised if that continues the rest of the season unless other WRs miss games due to injury. IMO that implies his target share will likely be less than it was in weeks 4, 6, and 7.
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I'll take the over on the 87%, with the caveat of if his knee is sound. It was only down "that low" because of him coming out this week, because of the knee. I think he's a full time player in every sense of the word and it's not going anywhere.
 
menobrown said:
Just Win Baby said:
I'm sure Palmer will continue to get plenty of snaps barring injury, but he has gotten 87% of the offensive snaps in the last 4 games without Williams. I will be surprised if that continues the rest of the season unless other WRs miss games due to injury. IMO that implies his target share will likely be less than it was in weeks 4, 6, and 7.
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I'll take the over on the 87%, with the caveat of if his knee is sound. It was only down "that low" because of him coming out this week, because of the knee. I think he's a full time player in every sense of the word and it's not going anywhere.
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That knee injury thing was still so weird to me. Did they ever say what it was?

Some have speculated his knee cap came loose.

I was thinking he was done for the year when I saw it happen. But he was right back in the game.

Don’t think he got a catch after that but Herbert did try to see him open near the endzone but bounced the ball off the defenders helmet.
 
menobrown said:
Just Win Baby said:
I'm sure Palmer will continue to get plenty of snaps barring injury, but he has gotten 87% of the offensive snaps in the last 4 games without Williams. I will be surprised if that continues the rest of the season unless other WRs miss games due to injury. IMO that implies his target share will likely be less than it was in weeks 4, 6, and 7.
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I'll take the over on the 87%, with the caveat of if his knee is sound. It was only down "that low" because of him coming out this week, because of the knee. I think he's a full time player in every sense of the word and it's not going anywhere.
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I have watched every snap he has played for the Chargers, and I think he is slightly above JAG level. Obviously, I'm no scout, so I could be wrong, and I highly respect your opinion. I just don't see it. What does he do, what passing game skills does he have, that is much above JAG level?

PFF has graded 102 WRs this season who have at least 10 targets. His ranks relative to the others:
  • Targets (38) rank tied for #50-51... exactly average
  • Receptions (23) rank tied for #50-53... exactly average
  • Receiving yards (377) rank #42... slightly above average
  • Receiving first downs (13) rank tied for #54-57... slightly below average
  • Receiving TDs (1) ranks tied for #57-87... below average
  • Receiving grade (67.3) ranks #58... slightly below average
  • Y/RR (1.59) ranks #51... exactly average
  • Passer rating when targeted (91.7) ranks tied for #58-59... slightly below average
He has accomplished most of this:
  • Without WR Williams (4/7 games), which will continue
  • Without TE Everett (1/7 games), not really a factor here
  • With a limited role for WR Johnston, which IMO will not continue, at least to the same degree
  • Without WR Guyton (7/7 games), which will not continue
  • Without RB Ekeler (3/7 games, though inexplicably not used in 2 other games), which will not continue
Believe me, I hope your optimism is right, since that would be good for the Chargers. I just don't see it. I see an occasional strong game, like vs. KC, but mixed with more average and below average games.
 
menobrown said:
Just Win Baby said:
I'm sure Palmer will continue to get plenty of snaps barring injury, but he has gotten 87% of the offensive snaps in the last 4 games without Williams. I will be surprised if that continues the rest of the season unless other WRs miss games due to injury. IMO that implies his target share will likely be less than it was in weeks 4, 6, and 7.
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I'll take the over on the 87%, with the caveat of if his knee is sound. It was only down "that low" because of him coming out this week, because of the knee. I think he's a full time player in every sense of the word and it's not going anywhere.
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OK, cool, I'll take the under and we'll revisit at the end of the season.
 
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