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Is Biden right that oil companies can lower prices at the pump but won’t? (2 Viewers)

Right and the idea that Biden is speaking only to the corporates is just another example of people not understanding how a market works.

When Shell corporate lowers their prices, the independent mom and pop has to lower as well or lose customers.  So the independents don’t just get to not participate.
Of course.  Although when the corporate affiliated are going up, the independents frequently lag quite a bit.  Ultimately, they're participating because they're buying gas from the large companies on the spot market.  It's not like they are refining their own gas.

The reality is if the big companies wanted to drop prices by 20 cents, they could.

 
So what I’m gathering, the consensus here is that we should just let things take their course? Suppose gas prices continue to go up? Suppose they’re $10 bucks a gallon by the end of the year? What then? Is there any point that government should step in and do something? 

 
So what I’m gathering, the consensus here is that we should just let things take their course? Suppose gas prices continue to go up? Suppose they’re $10 bucks a gallon by the end of the year? What then? Is there any point that government should step in and do something? 
Government should invest heavily in development of alternative, greener fuels, approximately 30 years ago.

 
Agreed, but what now? 
The oil industry has given Biden a list of things he can do to help.  I'm just not sure he has or will do any of them.  

The American Petroleum Institute (API) and ExxonMobil Corporation have both responded to a recent letter sent by U.S. President Joe Biden to oil refineries.

“While we appreciate the opportunity to open increased dialogue with the White House, the administration’s misguided policy agenda shifting away from domestic oil and natural gas has compounded inflationary pressures and added headwinds to companies’ daily efforts to meet growing energy needs while reducing emissions,” API President and CEO Mike Sommers said in the API’s response.

“I reinforced in a letter to President Biden and his Cabinet yesterday [June 14] ten meaningful policy actions to ultimately alleviate pain at the pump and strengthen national security, including approving critical energy infrastructure, increasing access to capital, holding energy lease sales, among other urgent priorities,” he added in the response.

“Ahead of his travel to the Middle East next month, we urge the President to prioritize unlocking U.S. energy resources - that are the envy of the world - instead of increasing reliance on foreign sources,” Sommer continued.

In its response, ExxonMobil noted that it has been in regular contact with the administration to update the President and his staff on how ExxonMobil has been investing more than any other company to develop U.S. oil and gas supplies.

“This includes investments in the U.S. of more than $50 billion over the past five years, resulting in an almost 50 percent increase in our U.S. production of oil during this period,” ExxonMobil said in a statement posted on its website.

“Globally, we’ve invested double what we’ve earned over the past five years -- $118 billion on new oil and gas supplies compared to net income of $55 billion. This is a reflection of the company’s long-term growth strategy, and our commitment to continuously invest to meet society’s demand for our products,” the company added in the statement.

“Specific to refining capacity in the U.S., we’ve been investing through the downturn to increase refining capacity to process U.S. light crude by about 250,000 barrels per day – the equivalent of adding a new medium-sized refinery. We kept investing even during the pandemic, when we lost more than $20 billion and had to borrow more than $30 billion to maintain investment to increase capacity to be ready for post-pandemic demand,” ExxonMobil continued.

In the short term, the U.S. government could enact measures often used in emergencies following hurricanes or other supply disruptions -- such as waivers of Jones Act provisions and some fuel specifications to increase supplies, ExxonMobil noted in its response.

“Longer term, government can promote investment through clear and consistent policy that supports U.S. resource development, such as regular and predictable lease sales, as well as streamlined regulatory approval and support for infrastructure such as pipelines,” ExxonMobil added.

In his letter, Biden told U.S. oil refiners that unprecedented profit margins are unacceptable and called for “immediate action” to improve capacity, Bloomberg outlined. Biden said his administration was prepared to take any “reasonable and appropriate” steps that would help companies increase output in the near term, Bloomberg reported.

 
Agreed, but what now? 
Seems Democrats and Biden are going to pay the price no matter what they do at the moment.  Which lead us back to the cycle of making things friendlier to the oil industry and thus less friendly to the environment.  Would be an interesting exercise to see him rescind some of his executive orders…with triggers that they will immediately renew if prices don’t come down or any adverse affects to the environment.  

 
Seems Democrats and Biden are going to pay the price no matter what they do at the moment.  Which lead us back to the cycle of making things friendlier to the oil industry and thus less friendly to the environment.  Would be an interesting exercise to see him rescind some of his executive orders…with triggers that they will immediately renew if prices don’t come down or any adverse affects to the environment.  
The consumption of oil has an adverse effect on the environment, can’t get around that.

 
Seems Democrats and Biden are going to pay the price no matter what they do at the moment.  Which lead us back to the cycle of making things friendlier to the oil industry and thus less friendly to the environment.  Would be an interesting exercise to see him rescind some of his executive orders…with triggers that they will immediately renew if prices don’t come down or any adverse affects to the environment.  
jmo Biden would be better served saying “yeah gas is expensive so drive hybrids and electric vehicles and then layout a plan to further transition away from oil.

You can’t attack the oil companies and implement policies that are likely to drive up the prices, then whine when they skyrocket.

There’s no coherent strategy he’s providing and attacking oil companies for making a profit is silly. They need a profit to invest in infrastructure and drilling.  I’m sure the execs are getting big bonuses but I doubt those bonuses are having a significant impact in the price of gas

 
So did 40 million other Americans. Remember when the leftist media blamed him for the Oklahoma City bombing?

 In 2021, about 134.83 billion gallons (or about 3.21 billion barrels)1 of finished motor gasoline were consumed in the United States, an average of about 369 million gallons per day (or about 8.80 million barrels per day).

Here is the net income in 2021 for the five major oil companies that drill for oil, refine it and sell refined products like gasoline and other fuels.

Exxon Mobil Corp. $23 billion

Shell Oil Co./Motiva Enterprises LLC $19 billion

Chevron Corp. $16 billion

BP North America $13 billion

ConocoPhillips/Phillips 66 $8 billion

TOTAL $79 billion

Im bad at maths how much does that lower the cost at the pump? 


It was reported that Q1 was record profits for top oil companies - so they bear some blame.  

But like I said before, if you believe in capitalism, you got no complaint.

 
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I would buy some crummy gas like Citgo, revoke some drill permits, and start a chain of government gas.  That fixes prices and takes a huge bit out of inflation.

 
It was reported that Q1 was recorded profits for top oil companies - so they bear some blame.  

But like I said before, if you believe in capitalism, you got no complaint.
I think it was Exxon Inread Q 1 profits up 6Billion over last year.  An increase in 6 billion in a quarter.

 
I think it was Exxon Inread Q 1 profits up 6Billion over last year.  An increase in 6 billion in a quarter.
It’s kind of hard to interpret whole numbers for large international conglomerates.  

Their return on assets for the quarter was 7.5%.  Is that a gouging type of return?  Their return was negative 2% in the third quarter of last year.

 
It was reported that Q1 was record profits for top oil companies - so they bear some blame.  

But like I said before, if you believe in capitalism, you got no complaint.
I believe in capitalism but I have a complaint. Again if The government is giving subsidies and tax write offs to oil companies then how is that capitalism? 

 
The oil industry has given Biden a list of things he can do to help.  I'm just not sure he has or will do any of them.  
So we should just forget about climate change and just plunge into more unlimited oil drilling with no end in sight? That’s not acceptable to me. Is it to you? 

 
Of course.  Although when the corporate affiliated are going up, the independents frequently lag quite a bit.  Ultimately, they're participating because they're buying gas from the large companies on the spot market.  It's not like they are refining their own gas.

The reality is if the big companies wanted to drop prices by 20 cents, they could.
Why would anyone drop the price if they are constantly selling out or running low?  That is as insane as California complaining about greenhouse gasses, then giving out $1000 gas cards.

 
So what I’m gathering, the consensus here is that we should just let things take their course? Suppose gas prices continue to go up? Suppose they’re $10 bucks a gallon by the end of the year? What then? Is there any point that government should step in and do something? 
And do what?

Are you asking us if Biden should push the "Make Gas Prices Go Down" button on his desk?

 
So we should just forget about climate change and just plunge into more unlimited oil drilling with no end in sight? That’s not acceptable to me. Is it to you? 
If you want to go the green energy route, you can't complain with those policies drive up the current gas and oil prices.  This is the short term pain Biden needs to own for the long term reward. 

 
If you want to go the green energy route, you can't complain with those policies drive up the current gas and oil prices.  This is the short term pain Biden needs to own for the long term reward. 
Problem is the ling term reward is not likely.  As soon as. Republican is in office this will likely reverse.  Keystone contract back open, more exploratory drilling, more policies friendly to the oil industry.  And prices will still go up and down as they always do.  And we will continue to put off any move towards more renewable energy.

 
So we should just forget about climate change and just plunge into more unlimited oil drilling with no end in sight? That’s not acceptable to me. Is it to you? 
Of course not.  Take all the money used for compliance with the Paris Accord and other irrational spending and apply it to a Manhattan project on next gen fission and fusion.  Until then this world runs on petroleum and will continue to run on petroleum.

BTW - why would oil companies lower prices when this administration has just decided to choke them out of existence?

 
If you want to go the green energy route, you can't complain with those policies drive up the current gas and oil prices.  This is the short term pain Biden needs to own for the long term reward. 
Exactly. I’m surprised to hear this coming from Tim.  If you’re all in with green energy, I’d imagine you’d want to see prices go even higher.  Theoretically it should push more people to alternative forms of transportation.

 
Exactly. I’m surprised to hear this coming from Tim.  If you’re all in with green energy, I’d imagine you’d want to see prices go even higher.  Theoretically it should push more people to alternative forms of transportation.
You may have me confused with somebody else. I’m all in on trying to fight climate change. But I’m not all in, necessarily on green energy. I don’t know. 
 

The truth is I’m looking for a way to make gas prices lower while at the same time fight climate change. Are these impossible goals? 

 
Of course not.  Take all the money used for compliance with the Paris Accord and other irrational spending and apply it to a Manhattan project on next gen fission and fusion.  Until then this world runs on petroleum and will continue to run on petroleum.
I approve of the Paris Accord. But I also like this solution as well.
 

President Obama was the last major political figure to even talk about a major investment in nuclear- during his first campaign. When he was in office the subject disappeared. Nobody else has proposed it- not one Republican or Democrat. Traditionally, Republicans have been more open to this idea than Democrats but nobody has pushed it. Hopefully somebody will. 

 
You may have me confused with somebody else. I’m all in on trying to fight climate change. But I’m not all in, necessarily on green energy. I don’t know. 
 

The truth is I’m looking for a way to make gas prices lower while at the same time fight climate change. Are these impossible goals? 
In the short term the only way to lower gas prices is to artificially lower them through government intervention. Which has unintended consequences.

In the long run as green energy becomes more commercially available gas prices should organically decline.

 
I just spent some time looking through Krugman's Twitter feed and googling his articles. I found no evidence of him saying anything like what Biden is saying.

Here he is correctly explaining that gas prices depend on the global market for crude oil: https://www.twincities.com/2022/03/18/paul-krugman-lies-damned-lies-and-gasoline-prices/
He says that, but I'm not sure it tracks.

Oil is around what...$120/barrel?  Oil was at that price (+/-$20) for most of 2010-2015. (Link), the last time we came out of a recession.  Gas prices over that period were between $3.50 & $4.00 (link).  Somehow oil and gas appear to be decoupled.

I think that has to do with refining capacity (GG started a good thread on the topic).  If that's the case, we are supply limited.  Artificially dropping price  (via gov't intervention) would lead to shortages, right? 

IMO the way to fix this is to untangle the refinery bottleneck.  Given the infant formula mess, this doesn't seem like it's within the Biden administration's wheelhouse.  

 
So what I’m gathering, the consensus here is that we should just let things take their course? Suppose gas prices continue to go up? Suppose they’re $10 bucks a gallon by the end of the year? What then? Is there any point that government should step in and do something? 
Like push thru a new oil refinery or 2?

 
If the feds have the go ahead for this how long would it take, what would it entail, and how much would it affect gas prices? And what are the arguments against? 
Probably  5 years.   I have no idea but it expand capacity.   Currently we run around 90% with the other 10% for maintenance.    But imagine  how much cleaner it would be.   Haven't  built a new one in 50 years.

 
Probably  5 years.   I have no idea but it expand capacity.   Currently we run around 90% with the other 10% for maintenance.    But imagine  how much cleaner it would be.   Haven't  built a new one in 50 years.
Based on what you’re saying I’m not opposed to the idea, but there’s probably a lot of environmental concerns that I’m unaware of. 

 
Like push thru a new oil refinery or 2?
I wonder if capacity at current refineries can be expanded?

I get the argument that Chevron et al. don't want to invest in a dying technology.  This would be a great spot for us to subsidize.  Suppose we threw a couple hundred million in incentives to increase short-term capacity.  Would that be worth it?

 
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This only applies to affiliated stations (e.g. Mobil, Shell, etc), of course.  Independent stations set their own prices.
I am good friends with a Chevron owner.  He can set his price but his cost basis is determined by his supplier.  If he makes the same couple pennies per gallon he always has, he's actually getting a lower IRR than he has in the past.  I actually was curious and had a discussion with him this past week about those things, his inventory turn, how often they pay.  He actually told me that in his case he had 7 days to pay after a delivery.  So as long as his inventory turn is about every 2 days, it takes a couple days for credit card processing to settle, in most non-holiday scenarios he would be able to pay for that supply with the revenues collected.

 
I wonder if capacity at current refineries can be expanded?

I get the argument that Chevron et al. don't want to invest in a dying technology.  This would be a great spot for us to subsidize.  Suppose we threw a couple hundred million in incentives to increase short-term capacity.  Would that be worth it?


Push/Pull with diesel production. Increasing the ability to refine gasoline domestically will reduce the already limited ability to refine diesel domestically. And vice versa.

The gas tankers that refill the gas stations themselves use diesel. So the cost to transport the gasoline itself also takes a major kick.

Ramp in to create additional refinery assets takes years. If Biden pushed for something like that the day he took office, that would be one thing. But he didn't. The reason the GOP went after abortion rights and Roe is because even if Biden declared a ramp in as of today, it wouldn't make a difference at the pump until after the 2024 general election cycle. Best time to do something controversial is when your enemy and his failures provide you hard cover.

In short, we are screwed for years to come. First measure I'd suggest to people is to visit their local bicycle shop. If they even have one that survived thus far from the pandemic in their area. Talk to the people that work there, should be an eye opener. That should be a red flag of where we are going generally. More people are going to bicycle around. Many won't have a choice. More people will buy electric cars, those that can afford them.

Even if Biden tried to bribe Big Oil, he's already stated he's looking to kill their industry. So it's not just Biden but the pathway of the establishment Democrat as well. That Jennifer Granholm has major personal investments in EV technology is basically spitting in Big Oil's faces. They will still slow walk Biden no matter what. They want him out of office. They want all alliances to Biden gone from office.

This is also part of the reason why the airlines are slow walking Biden and Buttigieg too. The price of Jet A-1, commercial airplane fuel, is dependent on what happens with Big Oil and diesel production.

I'm not a fan of how the airlines handled some things and Big Oil are not total victims here, but Biden is going out of his way to make enemies for no reason at all. I can't blame them for defending themselves in this regard.

In the meantime, people should start buying mountain bikes. Lots of them.

 
I wonder if capacity at current refineries can be expanded?

I get the argument that Chevron et al. don't want to invest in a dying technology.  This would be a great spot for us to subsidize.  Suppose we threw a couple hundred million in incentives to increase short-term capacity.  Would that be worth it?
How i understood it is they really cannot expand them.  They are also running at 90+ percent capacity, so we cannot afford a hiccup here.  

 
You may have me confused with somebody else. I’m all in on trying to fight climate change. But I’m not all in, necessarily on green energy. I don’t know. 
 

The truth is I’m looking for a way to make gas prices lower while at the same time fight climate change. Are these impossible goals? 
I’m not sure that is achievable.  California could go all-in on electric cars, but then you’ll need to really upgrade the power grid.  They really should look at nuclear plants, but that will never happen either.

 
Surprised Biden didn’t call out Frito Lay, Pepsi, Coke, cattle farmers, Miller-Coors, and bread producers for recent price increases right before the summer holidays.  

 
I'm a bit confused as to why most people blame Biden for the high gas prices we've been experiencing. Isn't it obvious that the increases over the past 2.5 years are due directly to the 3 things:

1) The OPEC deal in Spring of 2020 that reduced the global supply of oil by 10%, the largest production cut of oil in history. That wasn't Joe but it was one of the handful of actual 'accomplishments' of the Trump administration.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-trump-saudi-specialreport/special-report-trump-told-saudi-cut-oil-supply-or-lose-u-s-military-support-sources-idUSKBN22C1V4

2) The shifting of how Covid was handled, people getting vaxxed or gaining 'natural immunity' and a shift in variants to less severe strains resulting in an increase demand for oil as people left their homes more.

3) Russia's war with Ukraine and nations rejecting Russian oil.

This 3 factors probably account for over 95% of the price increases in gasoline. Yet all I hear is that it's Joe's fault. Weird.

ETA: I definitely think Joe could be doing something about it beyond whining and he isn't really. Not trying to give him a pass here. Just trying to point out that some of this was unavoidable, and some was due to Trump flexing the power of our government to reduce supply at the behest of our 13 oil producing states.

 
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I am good friends with a Chevron owner.  He can set his price but his cost basis is determined by his supplier.  If he makes the same couple pennies per gallon he always has, he's actually getting a lower IRR than he has in the past.  I actually was curious and had a discussion with him this past week about those things, his inventory turn, how often they pay.  He actually told me that in his case he had 7 days to pay after a delivery.  So as long as his inventory turn is about every 2 days, it takes a couple days for credit card processing to settle, in most non-holiday scenarios he would be able to pay for that supply with the revenues collected.
Right, this tracks with my info as well.  Curiously, they say they make more on gas when the price is down (only on credit card purchases).  They make the same amount per gallon regardless, as they have to charge N cents over what they pay the affiliated oil company.  For sake of math below, we'll pretend it's 50 cents per gallon.

At $1.50 / gallon, the credit card processing takes ~2%, or 0.02 x $1.50, or 3 cents per gallon.  Overall, they would clear 47 cents per gallon.

At $4.50 / gallon, the credit card processing takes ~2%, or 0.02 x $4.50, or 9 cents per gallon.  Overall, they would clear 41 cents per gallon.

 
I am good friends with a Chevron owner.  He can set his price but his cost basis is determined by his supplier.  If he makes the same couple pennies per gallon he always has, he's actually getting a lower IRR than he has in the past.  I actually was curious and had a discussion with him this past week about those things, his inventory turn, how often they pay.  He actually told me that in his case he had 7 days to pay after a delivery.  So as long as his inventory turn is about every 2 days, it takes a couple days for credit card processing to settle, in most non-holiday scenarios he would be able to pay for that supply with the revenues collected.
Do the stations (independent or affiliate) not raise their prices when their cost basis increases?  In other words, when cost rises their margins just shrink and they don’t pass the additional cost associated with card fees or cost of capital to the consumer?  That sounds awfully nice of them.

Why would either of them do that?

 
Do the stations (independent or affiliate) not raise their prices when their cost basis increases?  In other words, when cost rises their margins just shrink and they don’t pass the additional cost associated with card fees or cost of capital to the consumer?  That sounds awfully nice of them.

Why would either of them do that?
My friends own an affiliated station.  On their side, they have very little control over their cash sell price, as it is set by the affiliated company.  They do control whether they want to charge more for credit purchases.

 
I'm a bit confused as to why most people blame Biden for the high gas prices we've been experiencing. Isn't it obvious that the increases over the past 2.5 years are due directly to the 3 things:

1) The OPEC deal in Spring of 2020 that reduced the global supply of oil by 10%, the largest production cut of oil in history. That wasn't Joe but it was one of the handful of actual 'accomplishments' of the Trump administration.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-trump-saudi-specialreport/special-report-trump-told-saudi-cut-oil-supply-or-lose-u-s-military-support-sources-idUSKBN22C1V4

2) The shifting of how Covid was handled, people getting vaxxed or gaining 'natural immunity' and a shift in variants to less severe strains resulting in an increase demand for oil as people left their homes more.

3) Russia's war with Ukraine and nations rejecting Russian oil.

This 3 factors probably account for over 95% of the price increases in gasoline. Yet all I hear is that it's Joe's fault. Weird.

ETA: I definitely think Joe could be doing something about it beyond whining and he isn't really. Not trying to give him a pass here. Just trying to point out that some of this was unavoidable, and some was due to Trump flexing the power of our government to reduce supply at the behest of our 13 oil producing states.


The current POTUS gets all of the blame just like he gets all of the credit.  Trump didn't get any quarter about previous POTUS policies or world events (even Covid) so don't expect Biden to get a pass here.

 
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It’s kind of hard to interpret whole numbers for large international conglomerates.  

Their return on assets for the quarter was 7.5%.  Is that a gouging type of return?  Their return was negative 2% in the third quarter of last year.
Sho has dissected them in detail, I’m sure he understands the excuses he makes.  :ph34r:

 

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