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Diesel Crisis: Farmers/America's Food Supply Under Threat With No Solution In Sight (5/20/22 19:50PST) (1 Viewer)

GordonGekko

Footballguy
VIDEO: Saagar Enjeti: Diesel Crisis Will Increase Price Of EVERYTHING May 10, 2022 Breaking Points

Saagar takes an in depth look at the diesel fuel crisis happening right now that has been ignored and how it will increases prices of everything even more

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6wPWblymng

Direct Headline: Why Diesel-Fuel Costs Are Really Rising

As of this morning, the national average cost of a gallon of diesel fuel is $5.57 — which is the record high.... A year ago, it was $3.17 per gallon. (The national average cost of a gallon of regular gasoline this morning is $4.52; one year ago, the cost was $3.04.).....We are now reaching the point where the cost of diesel fuel is making some goods too expensive to transport. One trucker ....“The cost of diesel is single-handedly taking us out of the game one by one no matter how big you are. . . . If you’re getting paid $2 per mile you’re not taking that load no matter if it is baby formula or orange juice because the cost of diesel is $5 plus. You just can’t take that load.....”

....Tractor-trailer trucks loaded up with goods are heavy.... average “only 6.5 miles per gallon. Their efficiency ranges wildly between 3 miles per gallon going up hills to more than 23 miles per gallon going downhill.” Because of the low fuel economy, trucks have massive gas tanks — from 120 to 150 gallons, and some trucks may have two tanks for longer hauls. In other words, on one full tank of diesel, a truck can travel 780 to 975 miles..... But as of this morning, filling up the tank for that trip will cost $668 to $836 — a cost of 85 cents per mile.....“A majority of trucking companies pay [drivers] between $0.28 and $0.40 cents per mile according to the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics.....

...The cost of crude oil makes up 59 percent of the cost of gallon of regular gasoline, and just 49 percent of the cost of diesel. Refining is a slightly bigger share of the cost of a gallon of diesel fuel than for regular gasoline — 23 percent for diesel to 18 percent for regular....Distribution and marketing costs make up 18 percent of diesel costs....federal taxes on diesel are slightly higher than those on regular gasoline — 24 cents per gallon on diesel compared to 18 cents per gallon for regular....Another factor that can really drive up the cost of a gallon of diesel is the total state tax — which currently averages 55.8 cents per gallon across all 50 states.... Right now, in California, the total taxes on diesel amount to almost a dollar per gallon, which is one reason why the average price in California this morning is $6.56 per gallon when the national average is $5.57... State sales taxes aren’t the only reason states have significant differences in fuel costs, but they’re a big reason.

But if we really want to know why the cost of diesel is increasing faster than regular gasoline, we need to look at those refining costs. It doesn’t matter how much we “drill, baby, drill,” unless we also have the ability to “refine, baby, refine,” — or we become dependent upon foreign refiners.....Back in 2020, U.S. oil-refinery capacity peaked at 19 million barrels per day....because of the pandemic, and the delayed decision to permanently shut down Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery after a major accident in 2019, U.S. refinery capacity declined significantly during that year. (It was the largest oil refinery on the East Coast and refined 335,000 barrels per day.)....

In addition to the PES refinery, five more shut down over the course of 2020: the Shell refinery in Convent, La., the Tesoro Marathon refinery in Martinez, Calif., the HollyFrontier refinery in Cheyenne, Wyo., the Western Refining refinery in Gallup, N.M., and the Dakota Prairie refinery in Dickinson, N.D. Those six collectively refined more than 1 million barrels of oil per day....Thus, the U.S. started 2021 with the lowest annual capacity in six years, and refinery capacity did not expand significantly during 2021. And as the pandemic’s effects on American life faded, month by month, demand for fuel increased — not just from drivers but from trucking and shipping companies, construction companies — remember, 98 percent of all energy use in the construction sector comes from diesel — and from airlines and other consumers of jet fuel.....With diesel so expensive, keep an eye on jet-fuel prices squeezing the airlines and prompting them to cancel insufficiently profitable routes.....

The former PES refinery complex in Philadelphia is being demolished. The Shell refinery is slated to become an “alternative fuels complex,” and it’s a similar transition for the Tesoro refinery. The HollyFrontier refinery is already converted to processing biofuels, as is the Dakota Prairie refinery. (Certain environmentalists will denounce the greedy oil companies and praise the companies producing environmentally friendly biofuels, never stopping to check and realize that many of them are the same companies.)...

Wait, I haven’t even gotten to the bad news: Chemical maker Lyondell Basell Industries announced in April that the company will permanently close its Houston crude-oil refinery by the end of 2023. That plant refines about 263,000 barrels of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel per day.....We almost never build oil refineries in the U.S. anymore....the newest refinery in the United States is the Targa Resources Corporation’s site in Channelview, Texas, which began operating in 2019 and processes 35,000 barrels per day. Before that, the newest refinery with significant downstream unit capacity was Marathon’s facility in Garyville, La. That facility came online in 1977.....And right now, there are no major projects planned to build new oil refineries or expand capacity at the existing ones....In short.... the cultural zeitgeist made it clear to the oil industry that their product did not have a future — and so oil companies reduced their investments at all stages of seeking out, drilling, obtaining, and refining their product.....

.... “The U.S. can’t make enough fuel and there’s no fix in sight.....The longer-term transition away from fossil fuels dims the outlook for demand, making companies unwilling to put up the billions of dollars needed to build new plants. Even resurrecting idled plants can be prohibitively costly at a time when construction and labor costs in the U.S. are booming.....”....There simply isn’t any quick, cheap, or easy way to expand refinery capacity, and the Biden administration and environmentalists don’t like oil refineries in general....

By Jim Geraghty May 17, 2022 10:21 AM

https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/why-diesel-fuel-costs-are-really-rising/

Direct Headline: How Trump Is Impacting the Diesel Industry

 Here are some of the key changes that Trump’s administration is making to loosen regulations on the gas, oil, and diesel industry.

1. Permitting drilling in environmentally sensitive areas

Trump’s administration plans to open paths to oil drilling in some areas where the Obama administration had prevented drilling because of environmental concerns...This impact would not be felt in the short term. However, over the next five to seven years, this could significantly raise fuel production levels.

2. Getting rid of vehicle emissions standards

Trump has already started getting rid of the standards for vehicle carbon emissions....After meeting with leaders of Detroit’s auto industry, he has put steps into motion to cut back on Obama’s standards for fuel emissions.

3. Eliminating the Diesel Emission Reduction Act (DERA) program

The DERA currently funds replacing or upgrading diesel engines. However, with major cuts being made to the EPA’s budget, this is one of the programs that Trump is seeking to get rid of....This means more vehicles will stay on the road with diesel engines that otherwise would have been replaced. According to the EPA, 73,000 vehicles, including buses, trucks, and heavy motorized equipment have been retrofitted under this act....This is sure to impact the diesel industry with more vehicles consuming diesel staying on the road for years to come.....

4. Advancing oil pipelines

Trump has signed executive orders to advance the Dakota Access Pipeline and the Keystone XL Pipeline. This, again, has the potential to increase oil production in the long term, but won’t have much short-term impact.

5. Slowing vehicle innovation

With more access to conventional fuel sources, lowered emissions standards, and diesel-burning vehicles staying on the road longer, there will be less incentive to find new fuel sources or to create vehicles with greater efficiency....Instead, automakers will be able to use the same technology that’s already in place to make new vehicles, which can more easily meet the relaxed standards under the Trump administration....

6. Increasing power of the Diesel industry

Under Trump, the fuel and gas industry has more sway in the White House. Fossil fuels are back in the spotlight....The Trump administration is likely to work closely with oil and gas companies for the foreseeable future, as the administration and the industry have similar goals. The fuel industry stands to benefit from Trump’s rolling back of the stricter Obama regulations on drilling and emissions....

Most of these changes will have long-term impacts that can’t be fully measured yet. But we do know that fuel production is likely to increase due to opening up previously closed oil sources....

IMPC 2016-2020

https://www.impcorporation.com/blog/how-trump-is-impacting-the-diesel-industry-2

*******

This is a pretty complex topic.

Right now there is a current diesel fuel crisis on top of our regular gasoline crisis. However there are some ugly long term questions in play, as diesel is needed to transport critical necessary supplies and goods all over the country. People can argue about the push/pull of the diesel industry and it's impact on the environment, but if you want to go to a grocery store and find regular stocks of food there so you and your kids don't starve, you need diesel in America.

And there's the large scale problem of not enough American refineries to manage diesel fuel production. Which has a dovetail impact on jet fuel and our entire airline industry as well. These stacking problems with no short term practical solutions in sight have created an immediate national security threat to our entire Republic.

Under the Trump Administration, there was a hard push for energy independence and support for our diesel, oil, gas and trucking industries. And under Trump, American families weren't looking at a 5200 dollar inflationary increase from the previous year like with Biden.  America's trucking, gas, oil and diesel industry could be argued to have had much more opportunity, flexibility and government backing with The Big Cheeto rather than under the Biden regime. Was there an election/reelection motive here? Sure, no doubt. But Trump is also on record brokering deals to help solve disputes with foreign players in the oil industry. Trump is a deal maker, he simply did not want America to be energy dependent on any other foreign power. Love or hate Trump, many Americans saw that as a good thing.

Under the Biden Administration, the collapse of our energy sector is just one of many scandals and failures and disasters under his watch. Now we have problems with oil and gas leases, tapping into our critical Strategic Oil Reserve, a hard push to drive forward electric vehicles without the infrastructure in place to support it nor enough financial stability of most everyday working class Americans to afford one, and spending tax dollars on "environmental justice" instead of solving the diesel fuel crisis and simply blaming anyone and everyone for failing to have an practical overall plan to help American transition out of fossil fuels into something better for the environment and that is more long term sustainable. Point to note, former Team Green Hero, Elon Musk, has also been targeted and dragged through the mud because he wants to point out the utter level of catastrophe that the Biden Administration has inflicted on all Americans.  Biden says he wants America to have successful and practical energy policy, but where are the logistics? Where are the short term and long term ranged plans? Where is the practical discussion of scaling and ramping in with a real transition instead of these haphazard mindless aimless type energy policies?

Did Trump do energy policy better than Biden? Why or why not?

If Trump was still in office today, if he had won 2024 POTUS, where do you think our current energy/gas/oil/diesel fuel situation would be right now?

What should America do about the current diesel fuel crisis? Again, there are massive national security issues implied here, this is a threat point to all Americans and there appears to be few to no solutions in sight with this current administration.

I'll leave this here for others to discuss.

Changed Title From:

Deadly Diesel Fuel Crisis: Did Trump Do Energy Policy Better Than Biden? (5/20/22 19:50PST)

To:

Diesel/Jet Fuel Crisis: Buttigieg Goes Full Tywin Lannister On Airline Industry (5/20/22 19:50PST)

EDIT: 6/20/22 17:12 PST

To:

Diesel Crisis: Farmers/America's Food Supply Under Threat With No Solution In Sight

EDIT: 7/20/22 16:14 PST

 
Last edited by a moderator:
CONTEXTUAL MATERIAL (Energy Logistics):

Direct Headline: The US Can't Make Enough Fuel and There's No Fix in Sight

A shrinking fleet of domestic refineries is producing a greater share of the world’s gasoline and diesel, setting the stage for a supply crisis....But the chief driver isn’t high crude prices or even the rebound in demand: It’s simply too few refineries turning oil into usable fuels.

More than 1 million barrels a day of the country’s oil refining capacity — or about 5 percent overall — has shut since the beginning of the pandemic. Elsewhere in the world, capacity has shrunk by 2.13 million additional barrels a day...And with no plans to bring new U.S. plants online, even though refiners are reaping record profits, the supply squeeze is only going to get worse....“We are on the razor’s edge....We’re ripe for a potential supply crisis....”

....The dearth of refining capacity has dire implications for both U.S. consumers and global markets. At home, retail gasoline prices continue hitting new records, exacerbating some of the worst inflation American households have ever seen. Meanwhile, the East Coast is on the brink of a diesel shortage that risks crippling already strained supply chains... because an eventual transition toward cleaner energy makes their long-term business model unprofitable and makes them less likely to attract buyers.....

By Gerson Freitas Jr, Barbara J Powell, and Chunzi Xu May 16, 2022, 6:28 AM PDT

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-13/gasoline-diesel-jet-fuel-refining-capacity-is-too-low-in-the-us-to-meet-demand

Direct Headline: Diesel fuel crisis 'happening before our eyes': US analyst

....Major refiners are slowly stepping up production of diesel fuel as prices skyrocket to record levels...The cost of a gallon of diesel fuel in the US topped $5.37 a gallon on Monday, up 12 cents since Saturday, easily shattering previous records set in March....Diesel gas is vital to the US economy, driving the transportation industry. Tractor trailers, locomotives and shipping vessels carry the vast majority of goods to market and with higher diesel prices quickly turns into higher prices for food, household items and other necessities at stores and online.....

“The sad part about this is that while prices may fluctuate, we really do not see an easy answer to the diesel shortage in the short term. This obviously is going to have an impact across the whole economy as the US still runs on diesel....”.....One oil executive, who spoke anonymously.... the switch will “not be immediate,” because heavy crude is in short supply. The US produces lighter crude from the Bakken and Permian oil basins....“We [the US] are still dependent on heavy crude imports......”....Kloza said the prospect of $6-a-gallon diesel fuel in the U.S. is no longer hyperbole.....

By Daniel Tyson 11:01, 3 May 2022

https://capital.com/diesel-fuel-crisis-happening-before-our-eyes-us-analyst

Direct Headline: Column: Global diesel shortages herald imminent economic slowdown

...Global distillate fuel oil shortages signal the business cycle is peaking and a period of slower growth or even a recession is imminent to bring consumption back in line with production....Middle distillates including diesel and gas oil are the primary fuel used in manufacturing, shipping, trucking, freight railroads, mining and farming so price and availability corresponds closely with the business cycle....

Europe’s distillate stocks fell to 378 million barrels at the end of April, the lowest seasonal level since 2008 immediately before the onset of the recession and financial crisis....Singapore’s distillate stocks fell to 6 million barrels in the first week of May, the lowest seasonal level since 2006....U.S. distillate fuel oil inventories stood at 105 million barrels last week, the lowest for the time of year since 2008....The rapid resumption of passenger aviation as quarantine restrictions are lifted is also worsening the shortage because jet fuel comes from the same parts of the refining system as diesel....

.....In the United States, the S&P 500 equity index has fallen 7% compared from a year ago, and 15% once inflation is taken into account, as investors anticipate an imminent slowdown in the business cycle.

...South Korea’s KOSPI-100 equity index, which correlates closely with the global trade and manufacturing cycle, is down 20% compared with this time last year, pointing to an imminent slowdown.....

By John Kemp May 19, 2022 6:00 PM

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/global-diesel-shortages-herald-imminent-economic-slowdown-2022-05-19/

Direct Headline: Column: Diesel is the U.S. economy’s inflation canary

... Shortages of diesel and other distillate fuel oils have emerged as a key bottleneck in the oil market and will exert upward pressure on oil and fuel prices until the global economy moves onto a slower growth trajectory....Distillate fuel oil has become the most cyclically sensitive part of the oil market, closely tracking the expansion and contraction of manufacturing activity and freight flows....

But volumes supplied as diesel fuel to trucking firms, railroads, construction companies, marine operators and the oil and gas drilling industry increased more than enough to offset the loss of the heating market....In 2019, most distillates were sold to highway users (67%), followed by railroads (6%) and farms (6%), with much smaller volumes sold as marine bunker fuel (3%), to industrial users (3%) and to oil and gas drillers (2%).

....In the early months of 2008, 2014 and 2018, amid strong economic growth, severe distillate shortages emerged, manifest by a sharp drop in inventories.....Distillate shortages were eventually reversed when the economy went into a recession or a significant mid-cycle slowdown....

By John Kemp February 9, 2022 4:16 AM

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/diesel-is-us-economys-inflation-canary-kemp-2022-02-09/

 
CONTEXTUAL MATERIAL (Was Trump Better At Energy?):

Direct Headline: Donald Trump's oil deal: The inside story of how the price war ended

Fearing job losses oil-rich states could hurt his re-election prospects, he convinced Putin and the Saudi monarch to end hostilities and make a compromise...The biggest winner appears to be Trump, who refused to deliberately cut American oil production, but was still able to broker the final deal....

At that moment, the OPEC+ alliance sealed the largest ever coordinated production cut, removing about a 10th of global supply. The historic deal had almost been derailed by a fight between Saudi Arabia and Mexico’s populist government, forcing President Donald Trump to step in and broker a face-saving solution.

....The biggest winner appears to be Trump, who refused to deliberately cut American oil production, but was still able to broker the final deal. His phone call with Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, followed by a three-way conference call with Russian President Vladimir Putin and King Salman of Saudi Arabia, came up with the proposal that resolved the Latin American nation’s objections to the agreement....

Trump has taken time away from grappling with the world’s largest coronavirus outbreak and waded into oil politics with a surprising goal. He’s gone from welcoming the crude price collapse to worrying about losing the American energy industry. Fearing that job losses in Texas and other oil-rich states could hurt his re-election prospects, he convinced Putin and the Saudi monarch to end hostilities and make a compromise....

....“I never thought I’d be saying that maybe we have to have an oil increase, because we do. The price is so low,” Trump .... was worried the U.S. industry would be “wiped out.”....Saudi Arabia and Russian blamed each other for the crash. Putin accused Saudi Arabia of trying to destroy shale; the Saudis said Moscow had kicked the whole thing off. None of it cut any ice in Washington.....“Trump, who has been a critic of OPEC for years, is the one who put it together,” said Daniel Yergin, the oil historian. “Of all the deals he’s done in his life, this has to be the biggest.....”

Javier Blas April 13, 2020

https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/trump-oil-price-deal-inside-story

Direct Headline: Leaked audio reveals that Trump didn't know semitrucks run on diesel — yet the industry is among Trump's most ardent supporters

The trucking industry was a key source of support for Donald Trump in the 2016 election....Executives from the $800 billion industry have met with the president several times to help him push his healthcare and tax initiatives...The recording of the dinner on April 30, 2018, revealed something else: The president's knowledge of trucking is less than comprehensive.

Trump: What do you mean trucks? What do you do? ....So you know the difference, right? You have every kind. Is there anything like gasoline?

Trucking executive: Nope. Well, diesel is trucking.

Trump: How is diesel compared to regular gasoline?

Trucking executive: Well, diesel in a semi — you can't run gasoline in a semi....

Trump: Why can't you? Just not as strong?

Trucking executive: It doesn't have the BTUs that diesel has.

"Our industry could not ask for better representatives than these to talk about the benefits of the president's tax reform package," said Chris Spear, the ATA's president and CEO....America's truck drivers — of which there are 1.8 million — were a key source of support for Trump in 2016, a July 2016 Overdrive magazine survey suggested.....The industry has lent significant monetary support too. The trucking industry contributed just over $9 million in the 2016 election, 81% of which went to Republican candidates...

Rachel Premack Jan 28, 2020, 10:19 AM

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-trucking-shortage-elds-leaked-audio-2020-1

Direct Headline: Americans should budget an extra $5,200 this year to cover rising prices, Bloomberg economists estimate

The red-hot inflation expected to last throughout the year will leave the average US household spending $5,200 more compared to the year prior....That boils down to an extra $433 per month on the same goods and services as last year.... Closely-watched inflation gauges like the Consumer Price Index have already shown prices soaring at the fastest pace since 1982. Inflation-adjusted wage growth was negative for most US workers last year, meaning their buying power weakened despite salaries rising at a historic pace. The economy is healing, but skyrocketing prices are making the recovery painful for nearly all Americans....

....Food and energy costs, which includes gasoline and home heating, account for $2,200 of 2022's inflation, the economists said. That's poised to hit low-income Americans the hardest.....Even if the cohort's average wages climb a healthy 10% in 2022, food and energy inflation could fully offset their pay growth.....

.....Bloomberg estimates, in a downside scenario, prices for crude oil could climb as high as $160 per barrel. Separate estimates suggest that would lift the US average gas price above $5 per gallon.....

Ben Winck Mar 29, 2022, 1:13 PM

https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-cost-americans-5200-extra-food-gas-energy-prices-bloomberg-2022-3

 
CONTEXTUAL MATERIAL (Did Biden Destroy America's Energy Industry?):

Direct Headline: Biden Kept His Promise to Wage a War on American Energy

On the debate stage in 2020, President Biden emphatically promised to wage a war on American energy dominance:...“No more subsidies for fossil fuel energy, no more drilling on federal lands, no more drilling, including offshore. No ability for the oil industry to continue to drill. Period.”...Now that prices have skyrocketed 81% to a historic high since inauguration day, Biden and his administration have worked to deflect any responsibility for the pain at the pump Americans are feeling.

BIDEN’S WAR ON AMERICAN ENERGY:

Rather than unleash American energy and end his anti-energy policies, Biden said he “can’t do much right now” about skyrocketing prices.

Biden is choosing to release even more oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)....This move follows an SPR release of 50 million barrels of oil in November of 2021, which did nothing to prevent a spike in energy prices....The SPR is supposed to be used for national security emergencies and major weather events, not for Biden to use as a political Hail Mary when his policies fail.

Biden is also reportedly asking Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and even Iran to replace Russian oil.

Biden began fulfilling his anti-energy promise on his first day in office, when he when he killed the Keystone XL pipeline, which could be supplying 830,000 thousand barrels of oil from Canada to U.S. refineries.

In his first week in office, President Biden issued an executive order suspending all oil and gas leasing on federal lands and waters....While a federal judge ruled the leasing bans to be illegal, Biden’s administration has issued ZERO new leases on federal lands....

In May 2021, President Biden removed sanctions against Nord Stream 2, which were previously put in place by former President Trump.

In February 2022, President Biden reversed course and reimposed the Trump sanctions, noting the “overwhelming incentive to move away from Russian gas…”

President Biden’s Far-Left Socialist agenda, Build Back Better, was an effort to cripple domestic energy by increasing oil and gas production payments to 20%, increasing bonding and surety requirements to more than 15 times their current levels, imposing a new severance tax, and establishing new annual fees of $10,000 per mile for offshore pipelines....

President Biden’s FY22 Budget request explicitly opposed funding the construction or maintenance of projects that would lower the cost of gas, diesel, or energy derived from fossil fuels.

Biden’s Department of Energy has slow-walked liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports that could reduce Europe’s dependence on Russia.

House GOP Mar 17, 2022 

https://www.gop.gov/biden-kept-his-promise-to-wage-a-war-on-american-energy/

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/coe_fy22.pdf

Direct Headline: Biden’s FY22 Discretionary Budget Proposal Includes $25.6B for USDOT (Updated)

Biden’s FY 2022 EPA Budget: $11.2 Billion with Focus on Environmental Justice and Science

...Advancing Environmental Justice and Civil Rights. The budget includes over $900 million in investments for environmental justice-related work, collectively known as EPA’s Accelerating Environmental and Economic Justice Initiative, elevating environmental justice as a top priority across the agency. The budget also proposes a new national program dedicated to environmental justice to further that goal....The budget provides $150 million for new environmental justice grant programs that aim to implement solutions to environmental burdens.....The budget also plans to overhaul the External Civil Rights Compliance Program with nearly $14 million directed to ensure enforcement of federal civil rights. The budget proposes $100 million for the development of a new community monitoring and notification program in the Air Office that will monitor and provide real-time data to the public on environmental pollution, focusing on those communities with the greatest exposure to harmful levels of toxins.....

by Marybeth Luczak/Sandy Smith April 16, 2021

https://www.railwayage.com/passenger/bidens-fy22-discretionary-budget-proposal-includes-25-6b-for-usdot/

https://blog.intelex.com/2021/06/23/bidens-fy-2022-epa-budget-11-2-billion-with-focus-on-environmental-justice-and-science/

Direct Headline: 'Only real energy security comes from reducing' US reliance on oil: top Biden adviser

...."This crisis should underscore the only way to reduce our dependence on oil is to use less oil," White House director of the National Economic Council Brian Deese said. "The good news is the market is moving aggressively in that direction. We have all the major auto companies saying they are moving to an electric vehicle future. We as an administration are doubling down on the ability to build those vehicles here, and create more jobs here at home. So if this crisis is going to teach us anything, it's that over the long-term the only real energy security comes from reducing our economy's dependence on oil and other fossil fuels....."

Deese's comments come as oil and gas prices skyrocket in the United States as the war rages on, raising the risk of a sharp economic slowdown this year....."Putin's price hikes are having an impact, and are going to have an impact. As the president has said, we are going to do everything we can to mitigate it. But there are costs to Putin's completely unjustified aggression in Ukraine....."

Brian Sozzi March 9, 2022

https://news.yahoo.com/only-real-energy-security-comes-from-reducing-us-reliance-on-oil-top-biden-adviser-192219672.html

Direct Headline: Biden faces pressure to drive gasoline and diesel cars out of the US

The president has touted the benefits of a boom in electric cars – but as states move to phase out new polluting vehicles his administration is pressed to go further...Joe Biden’s administration, seeking deep cuts to planet-heating emissions, is facing pressure to take a previously unthinkable step: declare the end of the internal combustion engine in the US....with the legislature passing a goal that new car sales be only zero-emission vehicles from 2030, including out of state purchases that are then imported....While not a strict mandate, the Washington bill is the first time a state has passed a law aimed at phasing out the sale of new polluting vehicles......

The California governor, Gavin Newsom, has, via executive order, banned the sale of new gasoline cars from 2035. And this week both chambers of New York’s legislature passed a directive that would ensure 100% of new car sales are electric by 2035, with all new trucks following by 2045.....Biden has consistently touted the economic benefits from a boom in electric cars....said there is “no reason why American workers can’t lead the world in the production of electric vehicles and batteries.....”.

....The task appears daunting – only about 2% of cars sold a year in the US are electric, with many American drivers put off by the relatively high cost of models and concerns over the ability to recharge batteries....sales are expected to climb, but not at the rate researchers say is needed to avoid dangerous global heating, with electric vehicles needing to make up more than half of sales a decade from now and making up 90% of all cars on American roads by 2050.....Under the Clean Air Act, the Biden administration can set vehicle emissions standards that only electric vehicles could meet. The EPA is set to unveil new rules for cars and trucks in July...Biden has promised millions of new jobs will be created via the expansion of renewable energy and electric vehicles, but unions in rust belt states – only narrowly won by the president in the 2020 election – are wary of the shift.... She pointed out that manufacturing of electric cars requires a third less workers than their traditional counterparts. The UAW, the auto workers union, recently warned there is “not a one-size-fits-all solution or timeline and policies must provide sufficient flexibility and avoid unrealistic mandates....”

.....The plan also proposes rebates for electric car purchases but some advocates point out that new sales are dominated by wealthier people .....“The sales are coming from people who are older and wealthier....."

Oliver Milman Fri 30 Apr 2021 13.39 EDT

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/apr/30/biden-administration-cars-emissions

 
Yes.   Trump did better.   Trump was a better president.    He would have all sorts of  warp speed programs.....formula, the border wall.

Biden is a fall guy.

 
Direct Headline: Escalating diesel prices and fuel demand concerns truckers about the possibility of a diesel shortage

Diesel prices have jumped 75% from a year ago according to AAA, fueling concerns that we’re on the verge of a diesel shortage that in the end could have us all paying the price. That’s because costs could be passed on to consumers at the grocery store and when they purchase clothing or other supplies....Diesel fuel is in short supply according to fuel experts, as prices reached a record high of $5.62 a gallon at the pump nationwide last week. Semi-truck drivers, in particular, owners/operators are already feeling the squeeze on their wallets....Now there’s a concern there’s the real possibility of a diesel fuel shortage on the East Coast that could leave the economy running on fumes, and possibly crippling an already struggling supply chain....The Biden Administration is now considering tapping the diesel reserve, because diesel literally fuels the U.S. Economy and if it’s tapped out, the demand will drive up costs of nearly everything the average consumer needs, Gregg says, “You know I mean you go to the grocery store now and what you used to pay for milk about $2.50, now costs you $5.00....”

By Michelle Nicks May. 27, 2022 at 7:35 PM PDT

https://www.cleveland19.com/2022/05/28/escalating-diesel-prices-fuel-demand-concerns-truckers-about-possibility-diesel-shortage/

Direct Headline: Biden officials eyeing diesel stockpile to ease shortage

The Biden administration is in talks to tap to into a federal diesel reserve to address energy shortfalls...The Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve, created in 2000, is a Northeast-based stockpile of about 1 million barrels of home heating oil. Due to its relatively small size, the reserve is considered to be of limited long-term use, about a day’s worth of supply for the region, according to the White House. It has only been tapped once before, in 2012, after Superstorm Sandy battered the East Coast....Although the stockpile is likely too small to significantly reduce prices, the official said it could be useful in averting disruptive spot outages. While the White House said diesel prices appear to be stabilizing, it is concerned about the potential effects of shortfalls heading into hurricane season and winter. ...Diesel prices hit a record average high of $5.58 per gallon last Wednesday, according to AAA....The spikes have been even more extreme in the Northeast, which has fewer refineries. New England had an average price of $6.43 per gallon as of last Wednesday, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.... 

by Zack Budryk - 05/23/22 11:54 AM ET

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3498056-biden-officials-eyeing-diesel-stockpile-to-ease-shortage/

*****

If Biden taps the reserve, then what?

Part of the major problem here is the lack of refinery capability. The reserve is a band aid at best. What happens when grocery stores can't restock food supplies? What about people who need essential medicines?

American was only able to pull out of the spiral of The Great Depression via a World War. When too many nations lack essential resources, the temptation to go to war increases.

 
This sums up the pro-fossil fuel arguments in any thread on these boards.  The green energy posters in here scream "9000 leases" but don't look at anything else going on in the industry.  

 
FairWarning said:
WW III will pull us out of this Great Depression also.
We will be spending more going forward on defense then going green or social programs.  Biden’s comments have us on the edge of WWIII with both Russia and China.

 
We will be spending more going forward on defense then going green or social programs.  Biden’s comments have us on the edge of WWIII with both Russia and China.
As the US achieves its dream of paying what European countries pay for gas.  
 

2022 isn’t exactly shaping up to be the Summer of Love.

 
Direct Headline: Diesel fuel prices crushing New York farmers

Fuel prices, more specifically, diesel prices, are crushing farms. The cost today hovers around $6 a gallon, well beyond what any farm was prepared for....."I don’t know if I’ve seen it at even $4, and certainly not for any length of time. Those kind of times you like to forget," Allen said.

Everywhere you look on farms, you see machines that run on diesel....."We have 35 internal combustion engines. Almost all of them are diesel," Allen said. "He’s busy from three in the morning until 3:30 in the afternoon. We pay for trucking coming in for all the feed products coming in, and we pay for all the milk that’s going out. If we had people doing that to save, say, diesel fuel, we’d need to hire 20 more people to shovel all that because it takes about 12 loads to get that done."

...The price of milk is up nearly 40% in a year. It’s related to the rising fuel costs and supply chain issues.

By Marisa Jacques  Jun. 03, 2022

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/capital-region/news/2022/06/03/diesel-fuel-prices-crushing-new-york-farmers

Direct Headline: The world may be careening toward a 1970s-style energy crisis – or worse

“Now we have an oil crisis, a gas crisis and an electricity crisis at the same time,” Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency watchdog group....“This energy crisis is much bigger than the oil crises of the 1970s and 1980s. And it will probably last longer.”....Not only are energy prices very high, but the reliability of the power grid is being challenged by extreme temperatures and severe drought. A US power grid regulator warned last month that parts of the country could face electricity shortages and even blackouts this summer...

....Upstream investment in the oil and gas sector stood at just $341 billion in 2021, 23% below the pre-Covid level of $525 billion and well below the recent peak in 2014 of $700 billion, according to the IEF.....This investment shortfall has been brought on by a series of factors, including a push among investors and governments to bet on clean energy, the uncertain future of fossil fuels and years of weak and volatile oil prices....

“Because of the desire to bring down carbon emissions, we have a lot less appetite to invest in hydrocarbons. And that exacerbates the price volatility and makes it more difficult to resolve the supply side...We have to be careful here because if we allow the public to equate high energy prices with the energy transition, we’re doomed....You will essentially lose public support, probably permanently.....”

By Matt Egan, CNN Business 8:24 PM EDT, Thu June 2, 2022

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/02/business/energy-crisis-inflation/index.html

Diesel crisis: 26% of truck drivers wait more than 12 hours to fill up in Argentina

Pakistan left with only five days of diesel stocks

*****

America needs diesel to get food into grocery stores. All the other factors have some push/pull/adjustment to it. However when people start starving, and their children start starving, and when the blame is laid on "Go Green", as mentioned above, the public will retaliate at the voting booth.

Biden's idiotic policies are threatening long term energy transition. Not that he ( as a proxy for Susan Rice) appears to actually have a long term energy transition plan.

And consider America might be better off than the rest of the world with diesel. But it's all interconnected. The world economy. You can't have toxic ripples in Argentina and Pakistan and not have that eventually impact what happens here in America.

This is a clear national security issue and apparently the Biden Administration just doesn't care. They are busy hammering away at "culture war" issues instead of what's going to make every day working class Americans starve or not.

 
Direct Headline: Buttigieg says feds have power to force airlines to hire more workers amid travel delays

The federal government could take action against U.S. airlines on behalf of customers, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said Saturday...Many Americans have endured delays, cancellations, and other travel complications during the coronavirus pandemic, and in recent months, after many pandemic-related travel restrictions were lifted....Following Buttigieg’s own flight being canceled, forcing him to drive from Washington to New York, he said his department has authority to enforce action against airlines that do not sufficiently maintain consumer-protection standards, potentially requiring them to hire more staff...."That is happening to a lot of people, and that is exactly why we are paying close attention here to what can be done and how to make sure that the airlines are delivering...."

...Buttigieg's department also oversees the Federal Aviation Administration, which has also faced staffing shortages. The FAA said it would hire additional staff to increase its customer service....The Transportation Security Administration, which falls under the Department of Homeland Security Administration, has said they would increase the number of security screeners at select airports so checkpoint lines are less egregious...

By Lawrence Richard June 19, 2022 5:03am EDT

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/buttigieg-power-force-airlines-workers-travel-delays

Direct Headline: Can The Global Gasoline And Diesel Crisis Be Solved?

Global diesel and gasoline markets are witnessing blowout crack spreads in the US$50-60 per barrel (bbl) range, reflecting a clear lag in the refining system to respond effectively and decide between supplying diesel or gasoline. The precarious situation is driven by inventory stocks across the globe being at their lowest levels historically and, therefore, unable to provide the necessary shock absorbers. The loss of Russian refining owing to operational outages and product containment challenges has caused a diesel/gasoline hole greater than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in Europe that is not easy to plug....

Diesel is the lifeblood of the global economy, essential to vital sectors such as agriculture, construction, and transportation – its price impacts almost all supply chains and goods. Governments face tough decisions. They can assist consumers by dropping taxes on diesel, but this will likely only increase demand, which may support the overall economy but will worsen the existing tight supply situation. If supply does not improve, governments will be forced to enact emergency plans to limit sales to consumers in order to ensure essential sectors are kept going....”

Outside the European Union and the US, refinery capacity has been growing primarily to meet rising domestic demand. However, the pandemic has severely impacted the pace of additions with many Middle Eastern, African, and Asian refinery projects reporting delays owing to supply chain and resource issues. ...Overall, the cost of refining has gone up alongside inflated gas, hydrogen, and utility costs. Thus, a constrained refining system as demand has recovered has resulted in precariously lower days of supply cover in most countries....

To meet rising demand, refining runs will need to increase by 4.6 million bpd from June to August 2022, compared to current projections of 3.3 million bpd. With a limited increase in overall runs, the second-order lever of diesel versus gasoline optimization does not have much to offer. Diesel/jet fuel maximization is being pursued and indirectly fueling gasoline crack spreads....High diesel prices will drive hyperinflation globally and point towards a possible contraction in GDP. Demand destruction may lead to a recession and restore balance, but this will be a painful experience for consumers. Regardless, gasoline and diesel cracks are expected to continue to stay strong during the northern hemisphere’s summer....

....Refining is currently resembling a deflated bike tire without a pump – squeezing one side to make more diesel or jet fuel will cause the gasoline supply to worsen and vice-versa.....

By Rystad Energy/EOP Mon, June 20, 2022 at 2:00 PM

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-gasoline-diesel-crisis-solved-210000339.html

Direct Headline: Diesel Crisis Likely to Stay Unfixed by Oil Refining Revival

A wave of new oil refining capacity that’s coming on stream won’t be enough to solve a global shortage of diesel, jet fuel and similar petroleum products....That’s the takeaway from the Paris-based International Energy Agency’s monthly report on June 15, which shows that increased processing — as new plants come online — this year and next will fall well short of what’s needed to match demand for these so-called middle distillate fuels....

What that means is that even next year, refineries will still be making less middle distillate — a category that also spans kerosene used in heating and gasoil used in ship fuel — than the world needs. That’s not ideal given that stockpiles have already been steadily whittled away globally by recovering demand....Prices for middle distillates have surged in recent weeks amid unprecedented shortages, fanning inflation and causing pain at the pump for drivers. But with the IEA forecasting a demand ramp up in 2022 and 2023, more fuel will be needed....

....Middle distillates make up about a third of global oil demand, but that proportion rises to 55% in Europe, with just under half of the cars in European Union countries running on diesel....Most of the new oil refinery capacity coming online this year and next is in the Middle East, China and Africa, including Nigeria’s long-awaited Dangote plant, with a capacity of 650,000 barrels a day. This year will see total net capacity additions of just over 1 million barrels a day, followed by almost 1.6 million barrels a day in 2023....The extra amount of oil refineries process this year and next will fall short of what’s needed to balance the middle distillate markets....

By Jack Wittels June 15, 2022 at 5:02 AM PDT

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-15/diesel-crisis-likely-to-stay-unfixed-by-oil-refining-revival

*********

From a media optics standpoint, I guess I'll be the one to say the quiet part out loud there - If Pete Buttigieg was not openly gay and protected by the Identity Politics new normal, he would be totally run over the coals over his "performance" as Transportation Secretary.

OK Mayor Pete, airlines are not trying to end run you here, the entire industry is in shambles. The diesel crisis goes hand in hand with a jet fuel crisis. Also not being discussed by King Of South Bend is that his boss, Biden, who has inflicted mass inflation on this country, has triggered cost spikes all across the board for the airline industry, but also in every industry. He also signed two Executive Orders that forced vaccine mandates, where of the three prongs, the latter two were clearly never going to pass long term legal scrutiny. Under which the airlines had to fire people or established workers left because of the mandates. The declaration of war from the Biden Administration on the fossil fuel industry has a ripple effect upon the entire global marketplace. He's ignoring the practical complex chain of producers, facilitators and essential components because he needs narrative over actual practical functional governance.

Skyrocketing diesel prices, which imply spiking jet fuel prices, will only spin this cycle worse. Buttigieg will want to increase gasoline for consumers so he won't lose what's left of his political public image to hope to run for POTUS in 2024, but he will want diesel production to increase so prices on literally everything don't go out of control and the entire industry refuses to use their lobbyists and big corporate donor base to support him for a run at POTUS 2024. And he knows delayed and cancelled flights en masse will trigger anger from the working class against him and also from his Limousine Liberal "personal brand" base that's shrinking by the day.

So his best idea is to force the airline industry into hiring more people when it's himself and his idiotic administration that put everyone in this position in the first place. He missed a flight based on suffering created by his administration's policies, was inconvenienced, and went to war on the industry because of it. Did he stop to think the rank and file in the airline industry don't get to take off three whole months of work in the middle of a crisis like he did?

Private industry is not at beck and call of Pete Buttigieg desperately trying to channel his inner Tywin Lannister.  Can this administration get any more dystopian by the day or not? Good luck trying to be President after all this, Mayor Pete.

 
Your take on Mayor Pete is spot-on.  Since he checks boxes, they are not graded on the same scale.

Oh, and if the government thinks its that easy to force hiring, good luck.  Most of the ones not working now are not the ones you want working in the transportation sector.

 
VIDEO: Ford Pulls Plug on Pete Buttigieg's $44K Electric SUV (Made in Mexico) Jun 15, 2022

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihMtpSityso

TWEET: Secretary Pete Buttigieg XX@XXSecretaryPete

Buckle up! We're kickstarting an American EV future

Secretary Jennifer Granholm and 2 others

9:46 AM · Dec 14, 2021

https://twitter.com/SecretaryPete/status/1470812365423841288

VIDEOPete Buttigieg Says People Upset With Near-Record Gas Prices Should Buy An Electric Vehicle Mar 7, 2022

President Joe Biden’s Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said people upset with near-record gas prices should buy an electric vehicle, during his remarks at the White House on infrastructure on 3/7/2022.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2QSm91Rwmc

DOE and DOT Launch Joint Effort to Build Out Nationwide Electric Vehicle Charging Network

U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm and U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg today signed a memorandum of understanding to create a Joint Office of Energy and Transportation to support the deployment of $7.5 billion from the President's Bipartisan Infrastructure Law to build out a national electric vehicle charging network that can build public confidence.....This is a critical component of the President’s plan to accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles,  address the climate crisis and support domestic manufacturing jobs

“Transportation is responsible for the most greenhouse gas emissions of any sector in our economy - so it can and must be a big part of the solution to the climate crisis,” said Secretary Buttigieg. “With this announcement by DOT and DOE, we are taking a big step forward on climate by helping make the benefits of EVs more accessible for all Americans.....” ..... will provide technical assistance and analytical support to states as they develop electric vehicle charging plans to ensure this investment contributes to the Administration’s Justice40 Initiative, which requires delivering at least 40% of the benefits from Federal climate and clean energy investments to underserved communities. To grow the clean transportation workforce and accelerate the construction of charging stations across the country, the Office will support career training and certification programs to strengthen career pathways for Americans and create good-paying jobs that will lead the transition to cleaner, more sustainable future..... 

DOE December 14, 2021

https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-and-dot-launch-joint-effort-build-out-nationwide-electric-vehicle-charging-network

********

America has a critical diesel and jet fuel crisis. We are talking the risk of not having trucks that delivery food to grocery stores show up consistently. We are talking about Team Blue further crippling the American economy into shambles.

Pete Buttigieg, in charge of DOT, who talks about forcing airlines to hire workers as if he runs a dystopian feudal system, tells Americans if they are getting massacred at the pump to buy an EV, not factoring in 64 percent of working Americans live check to check and cannot afford an EV. Not factoring in the supply of EVs now couldn't meet that demand if every citizen had that kind of disposable cash. Not factoring in the current grid could not support a "clean energy" pathway to widespread normalized use of EVs ( When you stop drilling for oil, you also naturally punish the production of natural gas, which supports a third of America's current energy needs today)

Buttigieg tells every day working class people to buy a car they can't afford, and if they could, it would likely be recalled just like his was recently.

He also talks about the climate change/environmental benefits of EVs. Well all those chargers he's celebrating about installing in "underserved communities" are going to get juice from oil, natural gas and coal production. It's not like solar and wind can support all these charging stations. How does that help the environment?

Jennifer Granholm, who has major personal financial investment in the EV market ( big surprise), is demanding Big Oil produce more despite her administrations calls to destroy that industry, and is the other big player in this charade.

What does Milton Friedman say about this?  He says both the slimy glad handing politician and the ruthless businessman want your attention and dollars. The latter is someone you choose to give your money to, in exchange for something of value or perceived value. The former simply takes your money by threat because they can control jackboots crashing down your front door.

Good job, Mayor Pete, you managed to somehow sink your own political future into flames while simultaneously promote the tone deaf condescending arrogance of Limousine Liberals against the everyday working class with the backdrop of ignoring critical urgent priority tasking that is the backbone of how Americans actually get their food.

Don't take three more months off. Fix the diesel problem before America's children starve.

 
:blackdot: for future reading.  Good thread, good topic.

I will say that I grew up downwind of one of the refineries mentioned in the first post.  I blame that refinery for my (and my brothers) life long asthma.  A quick google search shows that refinery retooling down began in June 2020, well before Biden enacted his first energy policy so I'm not sure blame is properly placed.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
If the problem is strained refinery in the US, converting raw crude into diesel,

  1. how would drilling have make any effect?  It doesn't matter how much oil we can produce if we are limited in our ability to refine.  If that's the case, things like off-shore drilling, drilling in ANWR, and pipelines are completely irrelevant.
  2. I am willing to buy the idea that, given a future energy transition towards EV, investors aren't keen in building new refineries.  But, diesel and gasoline are not the same.  I don't see diesel being replaced with EV any time soon.  That being said, if more and more cars transition to electric, refineries will have more capacity to do diesel which should alleviate the bottleneck.
  3. this post shows that there is a global shortage of diesel, specifically Argentina and Pakistan.  How are these countries affected by US energy policy?  do we import refined gas/diesel?  Are these goods traded on an international market?
@GordonGekko - thank you for this thread.  I wish I had seen this sooner.  Lots of good food for thought here (in spite of the partisan spin).  I think you have hit the nail on the head as to the root cause of inflation - it's skyrocketing diesel costs.  Definitely worth keeping an eye on.

 
moleculo said:
If the problem is strained refinery in the US, converting raw crude into diesel,

  1. how would drilling have make any effect?  It doesn't matter how much oil we can produce if we are limited in our ability to refine.  If that's the case, things like off-shore drilling, drilling in ANWR, and pipelines are completely irrelevant.
  2. I am willing to buy the idea that, given a future energy transition towards EV, investors aren't keen in building new refineries.  But, diesel and gasoline are not the same.  I don't see diesel being replaced with EV any time soon.  That being said, if more and more cars transition to electric, refineries will have more capacity to do diesel which should alleviate the bottleneck.
  3. this post shows that there is a global shortage of diesel, specifically Argentina and Pakistan.  How are these countries affected by US energy policy?  do we import refined gas/diesel?  Are these goods traded on an international market?
@GordonGekko - thank you for this thread.  I wish I had seen this sooner.  Lots of good food for thought here (in spite of the partisan spin).  I think you have hit the nail on the head as to the root cause of inflation - it's skyrocketing diesel costs.  Definitely worth keeping an eye on.
It’s really something that hasn’t gotten enough media attention (diesel prices) and the effect of the economy.  

 
  1. how would drilling have make any effect? 
  2.  
  3. specifically Argentina and Pakistan.  How are these countries affected by US energy policy?  do we import refined gas/diesel?  Are these goods traded on an international market?


Direct Headline: How a massive refinery shortage is contributing to high gas prices

President Biden and Big Oil are at each other's throats....Exacerbating these high gas prices is a huge shortage in refining capacity in the U.S., which isn't likely to be resolved any time soon.Refiners turn crude oil into usable products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. There's just fewer refiners in the U.S. today than a couple of years ago...Refining capacity in the U.S. is about a million barrels a day below what it was prior to the pandemic...."When you're losing money on doing it, what do you do? You stop making it. And that's when you shut down refineries," says Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service.....I think the refining executives say, well, looks like the writing's on the wall....The narrative until today was that we were going to be driving electric vehicles by the end of the year. So who cares about refined products? Well, it turns out a lot of people need refined products...."

The president urged oil executives to increase the supply of gasoline and other refined products, and to drill for more oil in a bid to bring gas prices down.

It's no surprise that this is raising eyebrows, given the president's stated goals on an energy transition and also his promise to voters on the campaign trail that he would "end fossil fuels."...U.S. refineries are already going gangbusters right now. They're operating above 90% capacity according to the Energy Information Administration, and expected to run at 95% for the rest of the summer....As for turning back on idled refineries, that's not a quick fix either. It would take months to bring the refineries back online, and it would be costly for the refiners. Cinquegrana...says that from the refiners' perspective, it doesn't make financial sense to invest in additional oil refining given the broader transition...."You're talking about a lot of money to get these refineries that are idled up and running...when I'm being told five years from now, we hope you don't exist...."

The United States hasn't seen a major new refinery built since the 1970s. And there's a good chance it never will. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth recently stated as much in an interview with Bloomberg....."My personal view is there will never be another refinery built in the United States...."

Brittany Cronin June 26, 20225:00 AM ET

https://www.npr.org/2022/06/26/1107265390/refinery-shortage-high-gas-prices-russia

Direct Headline: Striking Diesel/Jet Fuel Shortages Are Coming

Markets are warning us that supplies of the fuel we need to run the global economy are exhausted. Consequently, some types of economic activity will be forced to slow or stop. Airlines may have to cut flights. Railroads might need to reduce the amount of cargo moved. Farmers could be forced to cut planting or let fields lie fallow. Truckers may be brought to a standstill as they already have in places like Cameroon. Diesel and a similar product, kerosine, are the
lifeblood of the modern economy. No substitute fuels are available. It will likely take a serious economic slowdown to bring supply and demand
into balance.


Several factors contribute to the diesel fuel shortage. These include the limits on product exports imposed by China, the output restrictions of OPEC
and allies, economic incentives that cut U.S. refiners’ capacity to produce the fuel, and regulations on the marine fuel sulfur content that took effect in 2020.
China has limited diesel exports during the first part of 2022. China could be a large exporter of diesel and jet fuel. Private companies have invested in building a large refining industry there. Consequently, substantial excess capacity exists in China...


The supply squeeze on diesel fuel and its complementary product jet fuel in 2022 and 2023 will have the same depressing effect on economic growth as drought or the lack of a critical input such as lumber. A review of historical data emphasizes this point. Growing economies require increased supplies of diesel. Demand for diesel is not price-sensitive because the fuel is an intermediate good in the economic cycle. Plant operators, truckers, ship owners, railroad operators, and electric utilities purchase diesel to provide their services to other sectors of the economy. The statistics show a GDP elasticity of one, that is, a one-to-one ratio, between economic activity and diesel consumption.

The current limit on natural gas supplies exacerbates the problem because natural gas is used to remove sulfur from diesel fuels. Less gas for refining equates to a lower supply of diesel fuel that complies with environmental regulations....

Phillip Verleger Spring 2022

http://www.international-economy.com/TIE_Sp22_Verleger.pdf

**********

Drilling for oil goes hand in hand with mining for natural gas ( which powers a third of our current grid right now)  Natural gas is also needed to help to refine diesel, so it has a triple impact. First, we don't have the oil created domestically. Second, it creates another shortage in natural gas. Third, the combined effect creates a negative loop where the problem stacks exponentially over time.

Biden has put America in a situation where there's no reason for investment in more refineries, which means America is more susceptible to collapses in other countries in terms of their diesel/fuel situation. It's foreign policy by way of being an energy production hostage. "Hostage" is the right word for it. Since the CCP is taking the lead in trying to force it's way into the role of a major exporter, the only way to gain favorable deals by the US is to make ugly concessions in other areas of foreign policy that naturally benefit Xi and the PLA over our own interests, including national security.

In short, Biden has made it more likely that America has reason to go to war with China, but is also simultaneously making it easier for the US to actually lose a war with China. Many civilian vehicles in the UK are diesel, thus these policies also naturally reduce the flexibility of our long term Allies in any future conflict.

Everyone is affected by US energy policy because it extends into instability in geopolitical reality. We are both the world's policeman, for better or worse, and we are also the world's "bread basket"  If we can't defend ourselves, we can't control the perimeter ( other countries who can no longer rely on our support as a geographic roadblock against the CCP) The reality of "Chinese Exceptionalism" makes war all but inevitable.

America has to think like a country that needs to prepare for world war. So much energy reliance on our greatest and largest natural foreign threat is insanity.

 
We better hope there isn’t a big hurricane that damages the offshore drilling or refineries.  That could be ugly pricewise.

 
We better hope there isn’t a big hurricane that damages the offshore drilling or refineries.  That could be ugly pricewise.
Or comes close. Or is predicted to come close. Or is predicted to not be close but could turn at any minute.  Or fizzles out over the ocean but may come close.   Or is possible to come close one day

 
Disastrous energy policy.  Waging war on fossil fuels before having enough alternative energy sources to fill the void.  What could possibly go wrong?

 
Direct Headline: The World Can’t Get Enough Of US Diesel As Exports Surge

The US is exporting diesel at the fastest ever rate as the global market’s thirst for fuel remains insatiable....As much as 1.39 million barrels a day of diesel has left the US Gulf Coast so far this month, around 10% higher than the previous daily record for month set in July, 2017....Adding gasoline, fuel exports out of the Gulf Coast topped 2 million barrels a day in the first half of July, also a record....Strong exports highlight just how much the world is still relying on the US for the fuel that powers the global economies, farming and industries. Gasoline is the top transportation fuel in the US but not the rest of the world and the effort to secure diesel is intensifying as demand continues to outstrip supply....

.....The bulk of US diesel exports are headed to Mexico, Brazil, Chile and Argentina. Fuel crises have been unfolding in parts of Latin America, leading to violent protests and political upheaval. These countries have pulled a greater amount of diesel from the US Gulf Coast in recent months. ....Gulf Coast refiners operated at 98.1% of capacity last week, the highest since December 2018, according to US Energy Information Administration data. ...

By Chunzi Xu July 15, 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-15/the-world-can-t-get-enough-of-us-diesel-as-exports-surge

Direct Headline: Sky-High Diesel Prices Squeeze Truckers, Farmers, Consumers

....When longhaul trucker Deb LaBree sets out on the road to deliver pharmaceuticals, she has strategies to hold down costs. She avoids the West Coast and the Northeast, where diesel prices are highest. She organizes her delivery route to minimize “deadheading” — driving an empty truck in between deliveries.

And if a customer’s load is too far away or they can’t pay more for fuel? She turns the job down....Many may not know that they are also absorbing the impact of much costlier diesel fuel. That’s because the goods consumers buy — from cereal and orange juice to Amazon deliveries of diapers — are delivered by trucks, trains or ships that run on diesel. Those inflated prices are then passed on from company to company until they reach consumers in the form of costlier goods....

“People pay less attention to diesel prices because people aren’t going to the pump and using it,” said Matt Smith, lead oil analyst at research firm Kpler. “But diesel has a more far-reaching impact and is already having a real big impact across the economy.”....Diesel fuel was averaging $5.52 a gallon nationally July 20 — up a scorching 68% from a year ago, when it was selling for just $3.28. By comparison, a gallon of regular gasoline is averaging $4.50, up 42% from a year ago....High gas prices have eased somewhat in recent weeks. But diesel has remained chronically high, with American refineries operating near capacity. Unless prices ease, the ripple effects of high diesel fuel could worsen because the costs are deterring some trucking companies from accepting jobs unless they can persuade their customers to pay more for fuel....“There will be more logistical shortages,” said Phil Verleger, a longtime energy economist. “Americans will find more empty shelves and higher prices.....”

....Farmers harvesting hay and planting corn with diesel-fired tractors are absorbing a financial hit. Delivery companies are installing their own fueling pumps to cut costs. Ultimately, consumers are left bearing the burden.....“If you’re a farmer, then your energy costs are higher, and therefore it’s costing more to produce grain, and that’s pushing the price of grain up, and that’s pushing the price of food up....”

....One reason why diesel prices haven’t yet declined as.... China has reduced its diesel exports, presumably to help achieve its net-zero greenhouse gas emissions goals....And within the United States, refineries that produce diesel from crude oil are essentially maxed out. The nation has 11 fewer refineries operating today than before the pandemic.... One refinery that had served the East Coast closed after an explosion in 2019 and never reopened. And some refineries in California are closed for retrofitting to process renewable fuel....Even if American oil and gas producers increase production, tough challenges would remain — namely, finding additional refinery space and then enough pipeline capacity to transport any additional diesel....UPS Inc. and FedEx Corp. have more than doubled their fuel surcharges on ground deliveries year-over-year....Farmers also face higher costs. But they can’t easily raise prices, because they often don’t control the price of their goods. Milk and grain prices, for example, are set by the market....A year ago, Fisher was spending $8,000 a week on fuel. This year, he said, the figure reached around $20,000.

“Most truckers like to think of ourselves as, we’re serving our country, moving goods around to keep America going,” LaBree said. “But at what point are we doing it for free? I can’t run a business that way....”

Cathy Bussewitz July 20, 2022 10:42 AM, EDT

https://www.ttnews.com/articles/sky-high-diesel-prices-squeeze-truckers-farmers-consumers

Direct Headline: US East Coast Fuel Crisis Deepens Ahead of Peak Season

..... The supply crisis on the East Coast is growing worse, raising the specter of fuel rationing just as the US enters what is typically the heaviest time of year for consumption.......East Coast distillates stockpiles, comprised of diesel and heating oil, drained to a new low in records going back to 1990, according to weekly data from the Energy Information Administration. Gasoline inventories in the New York-region fell to their lowest level for this time of year in records going back to 1993. ....

“Shortages will gain momentum,” said ...John Catsimatidis in an interview with Bloomberg. “Diesel will be rationed,” he said, repeating a pronouncement he made last month....

....The East Coast is among the most vulnerable US regions to supply disruptions after losing both local refining capacity and plants in Canada and the Caribbean that were major suppliers to New York harbor in the last decade. The Irving St. John refinery in Newfoundland, a major supplier to the Boston area, began maintenance in mid-May on gasoline-units, further exacerbating the Atlantic region’s tightness....

Chunzi Xu and Lucia Kassai, Bloomberg News Jun 2, 2022

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/us-east-coast-fuel-crisis-deepens-ahead-of-peak-season-1.1773873

************

The cost of diesel fuel on July 19, 2022 was $5.52 per gallon, up 68 percent from just a year ago.

If America is just about tapped out of it's refining capacity, then that means even with a massive shortfall, there's close to no margin for error in what is being produced as of today. That's a very dangerous position that impacts overall national security.

This is going to have a destabilizing effect around the entire world. But domestically, right now, the hard question is if the diesel crisis will break farmers. You can't fix other problems in your society if everyone is starving.

Then the question looms if it will get to the point of outright rationing. Our country depends on a healthy and robust trucking industry to keep all the gears moving forward. If you keep punishing truckers and keep making it impossible to earn a living, this is going to cause a further breakdown in the entire supply chain.

The Biden Administration will try to sell some kind of "victory" as in look at how prices are incrementally dropping for gasoline, but against what context? If you have diesel prices skyrocket nearly 70 percent, and you get a slight drop from that, how does that help working class people?  And what about diesel overall as a long term fracture point for our entire economy?  It's one thing if the current situation is bad, it's another if there are no practical solutions being ramped up to solve the conflicts.

People are going to suffer and die. More around the world  than in America to start. Thanks Biden. And thank you Barack Obama for putting Biden in a position to be here in the first place.

 
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Direct Headline: Diesel Supply of Just 25 Days Poses Problem for Biden

Chunzi Xu October 19, 2022

....The US ....has just 25 days of diesel supply, the lowest since 2008, according to the Energy Information Administration. At the same time.... weekly demand dipped slightly, it’s still at highest point in two years amid higher trucking, farming and heating use....The diesel crunch comes just weeks ahead of the midterm elections and has the potential to drive up prices for consumers who already view inflation and the economy as a top voting issue. Retail prices have been steadily climbing for more than two weeks. At $5.324 a gallon, they’re 50% higher than this time last year....

Nationally, stockpiles have drained as refiners entered maintenance season and as Russia’s war in Ukraine tightened global supplies and limited imports. Market backwardation -- where prompt deliveries are priced at a premium over future deliveries -- has made building inventory extremely costly, feeding into a vicious cycle of tight supplies and price spikes....

.....The situation has become so grave that U.S. buyers have begun snapping up diesel cargos originally sailing for Europe.....Reuters reported earlier this month that at least three tankers carrying diesel from the Middle East had changed their course mid-journey and were now traveling to the United States. And this new competition is about to intensify.....Argus reported this week that Europe is in for a major diesel supply shock because of low inventories and strong demand. And the level of inventories had a lot to do with the unplanned outages at European refineries before maintenance season....

In the United States, meanwhile, distillate stocks have fallen to 106 million barrels, which is the lowest since records of these stocks began back in 1982....Yet right now, U.S. buyers are snapping up diesel cargos from Europe in a way similar to how Europe has been snapping up LNG cargos originally meant for Asian destinations. And supply is not going up fast enough because there is not enough refining capacity for it to go up fast enough or even meaningfully enough. And this spells a lot more trouble for both Europe and the U.S., especially in the inflation department.....


https://news.yahoo.com/diesel-supply-just-25-days-160933244.html

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-O...-As-Inventories-Fall-To-Dangerous-Levels.html




Direct Headline
: French government in crisis talks as fuel shortages worsen

By Joseph Ataman, Marguerite Lacroix and Natacha Bracken October 17, 2022

French President Emmanuel Macron called a crisis meeting with senior ministers on Monday to address crippling strikes at gas refineries that has caused fuel pumps to run dry....Lyon is one of the worst hit regions of the country, with almost 40% of gas stations out of at least one fuel on Sunday. Elsewhere, nearly one third of gas stations have run out of at least one fuel, with the situation expected to worsen this week....More than 1 in 4 French gas stations out of at least one fuel....

....The industrial action takes place against a backdrop of rising living costs in France, where electricity bills are surging as a result of a cut in Russian natural gas supplies that has sparked an energy crisis in Europe. On Sunday, thousands marched through central Paris to protest the crisis and “climate inaction.”...


https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/17/business/france-crisis-fuel-shortages/index.html



***********

I recognize the issues of diesel is not a "sexy" political topic.

But here's the problem. No one in Big Oil is going to invest in new infrastructure/refineries/facilities as long as Team Blue and Biden have declared open war on fossil fuels. This also impacts our natural gas production, which accounts for a full THIRD of our entire current energy grid.

So let's get past the GOP vs Team Blue for a second here. This country cannot survive from an energy standpoint with two more years of this madness. The only two Democrats in elected office right now, as of today, with some name recognition basis to ascend, and whom have some basic fundamental understanding of functional governance will be either Amy Klobuchar or Katie Porter. That's it.

So I'm not going to say install anyone accused of being a DINO. But given the fuel/diesel situation, Biden needs to go. The 25th or impeachment or any other legal mechanism. But he has to forced out of office soon because the competition for diesel is not just an American National Security crisis, it's now a world wide catastrophe waiting to happen.

The precursors are in place to have extended international military conflict over energy and fuel. Nipping shipments by overpaying is stop gap maneuver that will only incite other foreign nations. Also while Russia/Putin are raging and saber rattling, America cannot have it's European allies at the brink of collapse over energy. I'm talking war across the globe. Once you have stacking naval engagements, you'll draw in carriers and submarines into the fold. I don't think many here truly understand the punitive cost and logistical nightmare that long term convoy coverage would entail from our Navy. This also diverts and spreads out our forces, which again, opens up other National Security concerns. The final cherry on top is Biden is also tapping out the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to try to hold onto some Mid Term seats. But at what cost to the safety of our Republic?

Put Klobuchar and/or Porter into real power, and prioritize getting more refineries built and online by any means necessary.

Failures in energy, gas, oil and diesel have a direct impact in world wide food distribution.
This is beyond unconscionable. Jennifer Granholm is willing to enable world wide famine so she can make gains on her personal investment portfolio.

Virtue signaling about climate change isn't solved by putting famine and mass starvation into hyper drive all across the face of the entire planet.
 
Disastrous energy policy. Waging war on fossil fuels before having enough alternative energy sources to fill the void. What could po
There is a war going on, Putin threatening nukes, & China is eyeing Tawain. WTH is Biden thinking depleting the strategic Oil reserves? oh, I get it votes.
sad & I hope it doesn't bite us all.
 

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