Zyphros
Footballguy
He'll be asked to do more than just run a route, effort goes a long way. Blocking as well, he just stands there doesn't engage unless he knows it's coming his side.
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Things You Know You Don't Know - Rookie Edition (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter rockaction
- Start date
JohnnyU
Footballguy
What about the back from Appalachian St.? Sleeper?
Shhhh...I've taken this guy in every mock I've been in so far at 3.01. He's explosive.
rockaction
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Highlights look good. What can I say? He's mocked in about the third of rookie drafts, best I can tell. Don't know a ton about him. It's App St. and I don't even follow the main college game that much. I remember when App St. beat Michigan. That's about all I can remember about their program. Huge blocked kick at the end of the game, huge shocker. Still don't know why the kid picked it up and ran with it other than for drama. Game was over as soon as the kick was blocked.
But other than that, I've drafted this guy, too. It's usually either him or McFarland, and they don't necessarily last until the fourth given their draft position. Late third or early fourth, actually, if they fall. Evans has a DLF value of 17, or around a 4.04 pick. McFarland has a value of 27, or a around a 3.11 guy. That's all I got for you.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Nero
Footballguy
Given his measurables, I expected to be impressed by his "tape." It was meh for me. Right now my favorite sleeper RB is James Robinson.
rockaction
Footballguy
I'm no expert on these guys and haven't gotten a chance to watch all of their highlight videos. Thanks. I'll check him out.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
1. He was the best running back in college football twice (Winning the Doak Walker Award) and was a finalist in 2017.
2. He had the best reason by a 19yr old from a BCS/Power5 conference going back to 1999 beating out Zeke ranked #10, A. Peterson ranked #2, Ray Rice ranked #3, Steven Jackson ranked #7, Marshawn Lynch #13 and Nich Chubb #16. (You get the picture)
3. He hit the 1,000-yard mark, joining Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk, Adrian Peterson and two others as the fastest ever to do so.
4. His speed score is 122 which is 98% which is comparable to Barkley who had a speed score of 124.
5. When you take his age, weight, 40 time, Career AP yds, Final Rush yds, Final AP TD, his projected Percentile is 100%!!!!! To put things in perspective Melvin Gordon was 96%, MaCaffrey was 96%, Gurley was 92% also Zeke, Fournette and Cook were 86%. OH MY LORDY!!!!!!!
TAYLOR IS A DAWG!!!!!!
Tex
rockaction
Footballguy
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
I somewhat know where you're at. It took me awhile to come around on Taylor, I've been on that Swift bandwagon but the more I watched, listened, read and studied what the numbers say it's clear to me. I don't beat that Swift drum anymore, from a pure athletic perspective Taylor is heads and shoulders better than Swift. Swift numbers are actually a little above average but I'm not finished with him yet but so for I'm not as impressed as I once was, I still believe he is as complete as you can get but if I was in that Talent rises to the top group (regardless of destination) then it's Taylor if I only had the 1.01 pick.
Tex
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I could see Aaron Jones who started out at 205 and bulked up to 215 before this season. I’m not predicting that level of success but they’re similar. Like some one said above his acceleration is impressive and his top end speed creates mismatches.
rockaction
Footballguy
This is Anthony McFarland's NFL comparison, I assume. Just clarifying for those late to the thread.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
It was interesting looking back at the Sanu college profile. He looked like a dynamic playmaker at first. 650 yards and 5 TDs rushing over his first 2 seasons. Junior year they stopped using him as a runner. However, when he tested at the combine, he was sloooow as he ran a 4.67. I don't know if there is context, like he was hurt (see Shenault) but that certainly does not scream dangerous ball carrier, YAC monster or anything.Nero said:
rockaction
Footballguy
Sanu was that year's Reagor, I guess.
Dacomish
Footballguy
Possibly. Coming out of HS in 2016 He was ranked as the best pro-style quarterback and best player overall in the 2016 class.Boston said:
First year at Georgia he started all but the first game and was solid then got injured first game of Soph season. Transferred after that season and sat in a different QB room at UW.
So in all honesty another year at UW may or may not have helped (New coaching staff) but I still feel he won't do well if thrust into a starting role early. But like you suggested if he can learn for 1-2 years then I think he can be serviceable.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
As for Jonathan Taylor, I might say Derrick Henry is the best comp. He can wear defenses down, give him a crease and he can fly through it. If he gets a head of steam, he’s dangerous in the second and 3rd levels. Catch him around the LOS and he’s going to struggle to elude tacklers.
rockaction
Footballguy
That's true. He did test explosively in some of the measured tests. I forget which exercises he performed well in, but I thought it was three-cone and broad jump or something like that.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
My concern with him is what happened in 2018? They had one of the best offenses in the country and he averaged 4.6 ypc, a full yard below Mike Weber. I wonder what the explanation there is because Dobbins was a beast as a freshman and junior.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
4.47 40 which was fine, just not the sub 4.3 that was being advertised. His agility drills were really bad, but he can jump out of the gym- 42 inch vert. He’s explosive but not quick. Fast but not a burner.
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
I really like Herbert. Recall that prior to the 2019 draft he was considered a top QB prospect if he declared. He returned to Oregon and played very well, leading the Ducks to a 12-2 record. Really they should have gone 13-1 had Cristobal not made some serious coaching gaffes. Speaking of Cristobal, his offensive approach was very conservative and I do not believe he took full advantage of Herbert's talents. Cristobal would only open up the pass game if the team fell behind by double digits, like the USC game. At that point Herbert really shined.
Things I like about Herbert are his measurements, his big arm and his mobility (3 TD runs in the Rose bowl). I liken Herbert to a better version of Josh Allen (don't come at me Bills mafia!), and I have him ranked ahead of Tua. I do not have complete confidence in my stance given wide consensus that Tua is a can't miss prospect. Interesting note, Gill Brandt recently said that he has Herbert ranked ahead of Tua, and maybe even Burrows.
Michael Lombardi had an interesting observation as well saying if you put Herbert in the Alabama offense we would be having an entirely different conversation.
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Herbert seems like a Josh Allen clone to me.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I like Herbert as well. Size and athleticism is there. As 32CP said above, he’s got a similar game to Josh Allen. However, he performed better in college at a bigger program. I also like that he played in 3 totally different offensive schemes at Oregon. He absolutely carried the team this year as they are totally void of NFL draft talent. They went 12-2 and he had the game winning 31 yard TD run to beat Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl. I am a big fan of him.
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Let’s look at their final year numbers
56% completion rate, 6.7 ypa, 16/6 at a lower level of competition
67% completion rate, 8.1 ypa, 36/6 at a power 5 conference
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Yes, I really meant it as a compliment as I like Allen.
People have this bias against QBs that if they're not a perfect Andrew Luck type then they're junk. You're going to wait a long time if all you want is a prototype QB.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Zyphros
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yeah I’ve seen that comp a lot. What is it about him that reminds you of Gabbert? Just looking at the numbers and college history, they seem nothing a like.
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Zyphros
Footballguy
Throws from his backfoot a lot, similar to Josh Allen like you've all mentioned. Allen gets away with it because of arm talent I'd imagine, Gabbert couldn't make that work. I mean that comp as a pre-draft comparison. He seems more poised than Gabbert did so that's a plus for sure.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
All these guys had worse accuracy and lower yards per attempt. Now maybe that’s due to the offense but again Oregon hasn’t been putting a lot of offensive players in the NFL during his time and he’s gone through 3 different coaching staffs and offensive systems. You could argue Herbert was better as a true freshman than Locker was as a Senior.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
That's a big negative to me. I still think JA is a just a Tebow plus.
Another damning assessment.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
The guy for me is Lamb. So he's tall, sort of fast and has some beastness. I know I don't have a real good reason not to like him... but I get a distinct Kelvin Benjamin vibe. Maybe I'm crazy.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
He’s like a really fast Joe Flacco. I don’t think that’s a bad thing. Similar size, arm, release, but Herbert can move around, and is surprisingly quick. I don’t think he runs as well as Allen, but he can if he needs to. Good at throwing on the run as well. I won’t be surprised if he’s the 2nd qb off the board.
rockaction
Footballguy
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I just didn’t understand the Kelvin Benjamin reference as that seems the opposite of Lamb in many or all ways.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Benjamin was fat which didn't help, but that's not why he failed. He didn't know how to play receiver.
I remember from watching Kelvin Benjamin at FSU, sometimes he looked completely lost. He just did whatever play was called, and often would stop playing after he ran his route. I brought up Bemjamin to represent an athlete does not understand the art of playing receiver.
Going back and re watching Lamb, I don't get the same bad feeling, but not a good one either. Like you know he could be great but you don't know he will even be good. Watching Juedy is different for me, where you know he's going to be good.
Everybody knows Lamb is fluid, quick, kind of fast, has the long arms and can make some great catches. These are good things, but icing on the cake. Setting up defenders, timing the break, recognizing coverage, finding the spot in a zone, doing well in scramble drill - without such things it doesn't matter how big and fast a guy is.
So maybe I'm crazy, but I haven't seen any confirmation Lamb does these things well. In fairness, the "Lamb vs." videos on youtube aren't ideal for evaluating receivers. I guess ABC doesn't care about us armchair scouts.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
Interesting. I think Waldman said Lamb was the best route runner in the class or at least the most undersppreciated.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I appreciate the opinion. I fell into the 1.01 from a pick I had previously traded for and am struggling between Lamb and Jeudy. I keep going back and forth but am currently leaning towards Jeudy (unless a RB goes to a prime spot I am leaning towards WR). I was curious on why Lamb didnt catch more passes, maybe it was inconsistency in route running. Heck if I know, I am pulling my hair out with this draft class and will probably let the NFL evaluators decide for me.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I remember my high school wrestling coaches always talking about setting up your shots. I'd been participating since about 3rd grade and I knew all the moves. I did them in the drills perfect, but I couldn't get takedowns in matches. Honestly, I was a lousy when I got to high school. I didn't understand back then how to make my opponent off balance or how to time the single-leg when he was unprepared to defend against it.
The full games I've watched of Lamb, I don't see him knowing how to get open. I admit part of this is the video too, not really showing a receiver's whole route. What is shown, he makes some ridiculous catches when he's covered or he runs past the defender on a fly; but rarely is he wide open otherwise. Maybe it's the quarterback too, because I don't think he is a timing passer or can consistently find the open receiver.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Let's say that what you're seeing is accurate. Is that really a big problem?
One thing I think we fans underestimate is just how different the college game is from the pros. In college you have an elite guy like Lamb often facing off against an ordinary Joe that's soon going to be a substitute phy ed teacher. And since college coaches aren't pro coaches either, they don't need to (often simply can't) teach the finer points of football to win games. They just scheme the match ups.
(As an aside, I think you really see this today in the offensive line positions.)
What I'm getting at is that every guy is going to have parts of their game they need improvement. But the question is "what part"? Specific to Lamb, is there any reason to think that he can't learn how to make himself open? You can't teach the physical skills that he or Jeudy have but you can teach the nuances of the position. And this isn't just the "you can't teach speed" argument because I think a lot of super fast guys lack change of direction skills so it's more than just that one skill.
When a guy that shouldn't bust actually does bust, I think it causes us to go deeper into analysis paralysis the next time. We think we should have been able to proactively see why the guy didn't make it. But it's not true.
The short list of guys that absolutely should not bust in this fantasy draft are, IMO, Taylor, Jeudy, Lamb, and Burrow. If you want to throw Swift in there, I won't argue. So while none are "perfect" prospects like Saquon Barkley or Calvin Johnson, there's no way to tell ahead of time what small flaws there are in their games could be fatal ones. And while there's not enough evidence to definitively decide among these names, you can definitively decide between them and all the others. You may get it wrong choosing between Lamb and Jeudy but at least it was a comparison you could and should have made. There's really no need to decide between Lamb/Henry and Mims/Reagor however.
So, again IMO, with these top names, if you have the chance to choose between them, just go with the guy you like best and be done with it.
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rockaction
Footballguy
The NFL is really, really physical. I think that's the worry with some of these guys. The surefire non-busts perform everywhere, including for the watch. So far, in a hyped draft of WRs, the two best underwhelmed. Jeudy was supposed to compete for fastest and ran a 4.45. CeeDee, at his weight, ran a 4.50. That's why Ruggs marches steadily up the professional boards and really piques the professional interest. Now, that's not saying the rest of the guys didn't blaze. Mims and Jefferson did, and they're moving up boards fast. But the top two WRs? Meh. Fat meh.
The guys that didn't underwhelm were the two top RBs. That makes it tough: All the pro evaluators are saying the WRs are the thing in this draft, but objective measurements are telling you to look at guys like Taylor and Swift, who lack the hype or positional importance to the pro guys, but who might be better players at their positions right away than most guys there. I mean, are you telling me Swift isn't already better than Damien Williams, Taylor isn't already better than Jordan Howard?
I mean, can we say for sure Jerry Jeudy is better than his body type counterpart Robby Anderson?
No way. I think that's part of the dissonance here.
The guys that didn't underwhelm were the two top RBs. That makes it tough: All the pro evaluators are saying the WRs are the thing in this draft, but objective measurements are telling you to look at guys like Taylor and Swift, who lack the hype or positional importance to the pro guys, but who might be better players at their positions right away than most guys there. I mean, are you telling me Swift isn't already better than Damien Williams, Taylor isn't already better than Jordan Howard?
I mean, can we say for sure Jerry Jeudy is better than his body type counterpart Robby Anderson?
No way. I think that's part of the dissonance here.
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