Things You Know You Don't Know - Rookie Edition (1 Viewer)

[rockaction]

All right. This is an exercise in getting out of self-doubt. Perhaps if we are able to put into words what our own little evaluation process has left us not knowing about the incoming class of players we'll be better off -- at least in the respect that misery loves company, and collective doubt can lead to absurdity, or quite possibly, giving voice to it can lead us to sort of crowdsource and figure out what is the jinx.

I'll start.

I have no idea what I'm missing with Jonathan Taylor, who should by all measure be 1.01 in rookie drafts. Can anyone give me a defining attribute of his and help me out with it using a concrete example?

 

[King of the Jungle]

All right. This is an exercise in getting out of self-doubt. Perhaps if we are able to put into words what our own little evaluation process has left us not knowing about the incoming class of players we'll be better off -- at least in the respect that misery loves company, and collective doubt can lead to absurdity, or quite possibly, giving voice to it can lead us to sort of crowdsource and figure out what is the jinx.

I'll start.

I have no idea what I'm missing with Jonathan Taylor, who should by all measure be 1.01 in rookie drafts. Can anyone give me a defining attribute of his and help me out with it using a concrete example?

Just out of curiosity, what do not like when you see JT? Now admittedly I am an amateur YouTube highlight watcher (along with catching some college football games as a fan). But when I watch him run, he has such quick subtle movements to move through traffic and then when he has green grass you see his take-it-to-the-house speed. A very exciting prospect and in my opinion has the best skill set of this group to reach elite production. He reminds me of Chubb with his footwork and I think he has more receiving upside.

 

[Catbird]

He will also be the fastest RB on the planet?

 

[rockaction]

DLF Mike wrote a great article pointing out legitimate concerns for Taylor. Wont post since its paid content but I believe you are a subscriber 

I am. I'll try and find it.

 

[Snorkelson]

I know all these wrs can’t find homes with targets available. 

 

[wgoldsph]

What do people see in Justin Herbert that makes him a first round, let alone top ten, pick?

He just screams average to me.  Bottom end starter top end clipboard holder.  When the best qbs to come out recently are guys like malhomes, Jackson, Watson - athletic freaks of nature who don't fit the typical mold - why does Herbert interest anyone?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

What do people see in Justin Herbert that makes him a first round, let alone top ten, pick?

He just screams average to me.  Bottom end starter top end clipboard holder.  When the best qbs to come out recently are guys like malhomes, Jackson, Watson - athletic freaks of nature who don't fit the typical mold - why does Herbert interest anyone?

I don’t know if Hebert will be a great QB, and while of course he’s not as athletic as those guys, he actually moves very well for his size. He can pick up yards with his legs when he needs to.

 

[Boston]

What do people see in Justin Herbert that makes him a first round, let alone top ten, pick?

He just screams average to me.  Bottom end starter top end clipboard holder.  When the best qbs to come out recently are guys like malhomes, Jackson, Watson - athletic freaks of nature who don't fit the typical mold - why does Herbert interest anyone?

I am not really sold on Hebert and definitely have my questions but it is very easy to see why he intrigues people and you basically answered the question yourself...he fits the mold of what the NFL wants in a QB...physically he checks all the boxes...that can not be debated...6'6 238 lbs, big arm, runs a 4.68 40 and has some mobility...now I do agree that he also looks the part of a guy who could bust but the question I am answering here is what do people see...overall if Hebert can get paired up with a high quality Coach I can see him being good but if not he will probably disappoint but that is almost always the case with all QBs.

 

[Boston]

What I am having difficulty with is after the "big 5" RBs (Taylor, Swift, Dobbins, Akers, CEH...I guess you could put Moss in as a 6th but I am not too high on him) I am just not feeling it with any of the other RBs...usually I have a lower-tiered RB that I have my eye on but right now I feel pretty blah on all of them...this may change after the draft but right now no one is jumping out at me.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

What I am having difficulty with is after the "big 5" RBs (Taylor, Swift, Dobbins, Akers, CEH...I guess you put Moss in as a 6th but I am not high on him) I am just not feeling it with any of the other RBs...usually I have a lower-tiered RB that I have my eye on but right now I feel pretty blah on all of them...this may change after the draft but right now no one is jumping out at me.

My “sleeper” guy is McFarland based purely on his speed. I know he’s probably too small to be a feature back but he surely has big play potential and if/when he makes a few of those coaches may feel he needs to see more touches.

 

[Boston]

My “sleeper” guy is McFarland based purely on his speed. I know he’s probably too small to be a feature back but he surely has big play potential and if/when he makes a few of those coaches may feel he needs to see more touches.

Who is your NFL comp for him?

 

[rockaction]

My “sleeper” guy is McFarland based purely on his speed. I know he’s probably too small to be a feature back but he surely has big play potential and if/when he makes a few of those coaches may feel he needs to see more touches.

Shhhh...I've taken this guy in every mock I've been in so far at 3.01. He's explosive.

 

[rockaction]

Who is your NFL comp for him?

Justice Hill, two inches smaller, heavier by about ten pounds.

Hill is 5'10", 201 and McFarland is 5'8", 210 the same height as Swift, by the way.  Fifteen pounds lighter than Swift. Swift's size bothers me.

 

[daveR]

I don't know what my final opinion of Dobbins is. He seems like the safest of the top 3 RBs and the most complete. I have difficulty honing in on what to think of him as I dont have any recent athletic testing to go off of. 

Here in OH, I got to see a lot of Buckeye games.  I have no doubts about Dobbins.  There is something I can't put into words that some RBs have & some don't.  They're "scary" from a defensive perspective.  You expect significant plays when they have the ball.  Dobbins has it, in addition to excellent speed, strength, and vision.  (my $.02)

 

[King of the Jungle]

What I am having difficulty with is after the "big 5" RBs (Taylor, Swift, Dobbins, Akers, CEH...I guess you could put Moss in as a 6th but I am not too high on him) I am just not feeling it with any of the other RBs...usually I have a lower-tiered RB that I have my eye on but right now I feel pretty blah on all of them...this may change after the draft but right now no one is jumping out at me.

Have you looked at Eno Benjamin? The more I watch of him the more I like. Good size, can catch, incredible feet and pacing, good burst, pretty good punch....

 

[Boston]

Justice Hill, two inches smaller, heavier by about ten pounds.

Hill is 5'10", 201 and McFarland is 5'8", 210 the same height as Swift, by the way.  Fifteen pounds lighter than Swift. Swift's size bothers me.

Funny you mention him...he was a guy that I was real high on at this time last year and targeted...he only saw limited time but I was disappointed with what I saw...the burst I was expecting was not there but again that was in very limited usage...he is one of the last spots on my roster and I am hoping to hear great things about him and camp as well as the Ravens not adding another RB early because that would destroy his value...who knows, maybe I will will have him and McFarland competing for my last roster spot.

 

[rockaction]

Funny you mention him...he was a guy that I was real high on at this time last year and targeted...he only saw limited time but I was disappointed with what I saw...the burst I was expecting was not there but again that was in very limited usage...he is one of the last spots on my roster and I am hoping to hear great things about him and camp as well as the Ravens not adding another RB early because that would destroy his value...who knows, maybe I will will have him and McFarland competing for my last roster spot.

It's just that college highlight burst and preseason burst of Hill was something to watch. I'm surprised at where that went, but that's what happens when making the jump to everyday player in the NFL. Preseason and highlights just don't seem to matter a whole ton. NFL talent evaluation nets more than it misses, which is why I'm paying attention to the Taylor/Swift thing according to the scouts and not the fantasy writers, who seem in love with combines and college production whereas the pro guys aren't. See: Jacobs, Josh, right now as a prime example.

I still see Taylor running upright into the backs of his offensive line, even in his hightlights.

 

[Boston]

Have you looked at Eno Benjamin? The more I watch of him the more I like. Good size, can catch, incredible feet and pacing, good burst, pretty good punch....

His drop-off from sophomore to junior years and his 40 time spooked me a little...who do you comp him to?

 

[Boston]

It's just that college highlight burst and preseason burst of Hill was something to watch. I'm surprised at where that went, but that's what happens when making the jump to everyday player in the NFL. Preseason and highlights just don't seem to matter a whole ton. NFL talent evaluation nets more than it misses, which is why I'm paying attention to the Taylor/Swift then according to the scouts and not the fantasy writers, who seem in love with combines and college production whereas the pro guys aren't. See: Jacobs, Josh, right now as a prime example.

I still see Taylor running upright into the backs of his offensive line, even in his hightlights.

I saw the same thing with Hill in college which is what I liked about him...just didn't seem to be there his rookie year...as for the high-end RB prospects where they get drafted will hold a lot of sway with me this year...how high they go and to who will influence me probably more then any other year. 

 

[massraider]

Shhhh...I've taken this guy in every mock I've been in so far at 3.01. He's explosive.

From Lance Zierlein:

 His projection can't just rely on a couple of splash performances from 2018. He appears to have low-end backup potential, but it's worth noting that some NFL teams are much higher on him.

Watching his stuff on YouTube, I like two things a lot: Seems to be at full speed quickly, and doesn't dance.  These little dudes man, if they are decisive, they can get 3 yards before anyone even sees them.  

Had monster Redshirt freshman year, then was bothered by high ankle sprain, then declared after RS Soph season. That injury may be a reason he is off the radar a bit.  I have late picks in my leagues this year( :flex: ) so end of the 2nd makes a nice possibility.  Thanks.

 

[King of the Jungle]

His drop-off from sophomore to junior years and his 40 time spooked me a little...who do you comp him to?

Drop-off is concerning for sure, but you just never know what the reasoning is (injury, o-line, etc.). He looks like he has plenty burst to me, his long speed may not be great but he seems like he can get to the second level quickly when there is space. I am very amateur so me giving a comp is probably not helpful. But in his highlights I like his patience and footwork. I like running backs that appear efficient with their movement and he seems to not take too many wasted paces while incorporating some great lateral movements.

 

[Boston]

Thanks Dave. I have him as my 1.01 right now depending on his landing spot. I have a lot of questions on the other backs in this draft. A lot to like about them, but Dobbins has the fewest questions for me... but his grade is incomplete not having any testing. The good news is we have something, even if it was from high school, so we know he's not a 4.6 guy

Everyone is debating JT or Swift but the best RB in the class may very well be left out of that conversation 

Personally I have Dobbins right there with those two...as Dave pointed out I do feel an "it" factor with him.

 

[Nero]

All right. This is an exercise in getting out of self-doubt. Perhaps if we are able to put into words what our own little evaluation process has left us not knowing about the incoming class of players we'll be better off -- at least in the respect that misery loves company, and collective doubt can lead to absurdity, or quite possibly, giving voice to it can lead us to sort of crowdsource and figure out what is the jinx.

I'll start.

I have no idea what I'm missing with Jonathan Taylor, who should by all measure be 1.01 in rookie drafts. Can anyone give me a defining attribute of his and help me out with it using a concrete example?

Taylor is not 1.1 for me.  I see a less explosive version of Nick Chubb.  He doesn't have Chubb's acceleration and contact balance imo.  Chubb was a littler heavier and showed a lot more upper body strength in testing, so I guess that is part of what the difference is.  I still have Swift and Dobbins ahead of him.  Since Dobbins didn't test, the draft capital and landing spot will determine whether I keep him ahead of Taylor.  I don't envision drafting Taylor over Swift.  In PPR, I could also put Akers and CEH ahead of Taylor depending on their landing spots and draft capital.

 

[Ilov80s]

I have no idea what I'm missing with Jonathan Taylor, who should by all measure be 1.01 in rookie drafts. Can anyone give me a defining attribute of his and help me out with it using a concrete example?

Very rare size speed combo as well as A+ college production in one of the top conferences over multiple seasons. The negative is a lack of pass game skill but I think he should be able to develop to be adequate at it. He got better during his time at Wisco.

 

[rockaction]

Very rare size speed combo as well as A+ college production in one of the top conferences over multiple seasons. The negative is a lack of pass game skill but I think he should be able to develop to be adequate at it. He got better during his time at Wisco.

I know the basics, bud. I'm just wondering what is his attribute and calling card vis a vis his running style. What defines him? PFF and Matt Waldman say between the tackles. I'll admit to not always being able to see that.

 

[Ilov80s]

I know the basics, bud. I'm just wondering what is his attribute and calling card vis a vis his running style. What defines him? PFF and Matt Waldman say between the tackles. I'll admit to not always being able to see that.

Lack of passing game

Fumbling 

Pass protection 

and I believe he was the worst of the top 3 rookie RBs vs top 40 defenses in college. 

I’m actually not the biggest fan of his but I wonder how much that is my college football bias. We might be over thinking it if we look at anything beyond the basics here. He’s far from a Zeke level prospect but Chubb seems like a good comp.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Tell me why I should like the guy I like more than the guy I don't like.

 

[rockaction]

Tell me why I should like the guy I like more than the guy I don't like.

No way. I'm more than open to listening. So far, between the tackles is an illuminating thing. Bouncing outside all the time doesn't work in the pros. They're too quick in the NFL -- there's too much pursuit on the edge for that. 

I also wanted this to be a general thread about anything, not just Swift and Taylor. They even have their own thread from yesterday. I was hoping to use this as a clearinghouse where questions could be answered by somebody who might have been paying attention to some minutiae that others weren't privy to.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

No way. I'm more than open to listening. So far, between the tackles is an illuminating thing. Bouncing outside all the time doesn't work in the pros. They're too quick in the NFL -- there's too much pursuit on the edge for that. 

I also wanted this to be a general thread about anything, not just Swift and Taylor. They even have their own thread from yesterday. I was hoping to use this as a clearinghouse where questions could be answered by somebody who might have been paying attention to some minutiae that others weren't privy to.

Sorry, I wasn't picking on your question I was really trying to satirize the answers. Too often, when people compare two prospects, they compare weaknesses to strengths to sort the conclusion they've already made.

 

[rockaction]

Sorry, I wasn't picking on your question I was really trying to satirize the answers. Too often, when people compare two prospects, they compare weaknesses to strengths to sort the conclusion they've already made.

No worries at all. I thought you were getting at my original question and subsequent ones. I didn't take it too personally. It's actually kind of funny and I know that I do that like everybody else does. So it's cool.

 

[Dacomish]

I'm a UW Huskies fan and can say that Jacob Eason is not NFL ready. His decision making and leadership from a QB standpoint just don't give me the warm and fuzzy as he just didn't seem to rally the team this year when he had the chance.

He Also only played 2 real years in CFB (because of injury and having to sit a year after transfer) and in 2 different systems so he never got to fully hone his skills.

I can see him being a rather large early round bust if he is drafted to be an immediate starter or gets rushed into it. Just my own 2c..

 

[Ilov80s]

The two players I don't get the hype for are Brandon Aiyuk and Zach Moss. Aiyuk is a late bloomer who wasn't nearly as fast as advertised. Moss screams David Montgomery all over again-looks very pedestrian. 

 

[Boston]

I'm a UW Huskies fan and can say that Jacob Eason is not NFL ready. His decision making and leadership from a QB standpoint just don't give me the warm and fuzzy as he just didn't seem to rally the team this year when he had the chance.

He Also only played 2 real years in CFB (because of injury and having to sit a year after transfer) and in 2 different systems so he never got to fully hone his skills.

I can see him being a rather large early round bust if he is drafted to be an immediate starter or gets rushed into it. Just my own 2c..

Do you think he has a shot if he goes to a good franchise where he sits for a couple of years?

 

[rockaction]

The two players I don't get the hype for are Brandon Aiyuk and Zach Moss. Aiyuk is a late bloomer who wasn't nearly as fast as advertised. Moss screams David Montgomery all over again-looks very pedestrian. 

Word. Preach to the choir. I'm with Dr. Dan on some things about this class, namely that it's not as pro-ready or deep as advertised.

 

[massraider]

Someone have a video of Ruggs that is gonna blow me away? 

I'm looking at career highlights, and I am not seeing all time speed. I am certainly not seeing elusiveless, Tyreek Hill-lite.  

I'm seeing a fast guy.  Reagor highlights get my juiced up a LOT more.  There's several DeSean types in this draft, I'm not sure one of these other guys won't exceed his value.  

 

[Ilov80s]

Someone have a video of Ruggs that is gonna blow me away? 

I'm looking at career highlights, and I am not seeing all time speed. I am certainly not seeing elusiveless, Tyreek Hill-lite.  

I'm seeing a fast guy.  Reagor highlights get my juiced up a LOT more.  There's several DeSean types in this draft, I'm not sure one of these other guys won't exceed his value.  

Teddy Ginn minus special teams ability. I’m not a fan for fantasy. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Word. Preach to the choir. I'm with Dr. Dan on some things about this class, namely that it's not as pro-ready or deep as advertised.

Yeah and I wasn’t trying to assume you knew nothing about JT. I just meant the triumvirate of production, size-speed and level of competition is really all you need to know sometimes. 
 

 

[massraider]

Teddy Ginn minus special teams ability. I’m not a fan for fantasy. 

Looks ustoppable anytime QB has 9 seconds to throw.

 

[Ilov80s]

Looks ustoppable anytime QB has 9 seconds to throw.

Yeah I think he’s probably much more helpful for real football all than fantasy. 

 

[rockaction]

Yeah and I wasn’t trying to assume you knew nothing about JT. I just meant the triumvirate of production, size-speed and level of competition is really all you need to know sometimes. 
 

Oh, I know that, too. It's better to err on the side of caution sometimes and not assume that people assume that one is informed, so I explained myself. I should have seen the emphasis you were placing on those three basic and fundamental things rather than the need to defend my own knowledge. Really no big deal all around. I'm trying to juggle a few things today and am distracted. Listening to the Dead and making trade offers and responding hopefully somewhat wittily to someone who summarily rejected of one of them quite tersely. And I'm always positive and accommodating of all offers. Sheesh. Oh well.

Come hear Uncle John's band...

but that is neither here nor there. Everything is good, as they say, in the hood.

 

[Nero]

Teddy Ginn minus special teams ability. I’m not a fan for fantasy. 

I actually think he will have Ginn's special team ability if he is used in that way.  He seems much faster when the ball is in his hands.  Corners seem to do a decent job on him on vertical routes in man.  He's probably going to have to work on his release and improve his strength.  His hands are way better than Ginn's.  I like Reagor better, as I'm not sure what to make of Ruggs.

 

[Nero]

I don't get the Laviska Shenault love.  He looks like an unrefined Mohamed Sanu.

 

[rockaction]

Someone have a video of Ruggs that is gonna blow me away? 

I'm looking at career highlights, and I am not seeing all time speed. I am certainly not seeing elusiveless, Tyreek Hill-lite.  

I'm seeing a fast guy.  Reagor highlights get my juiced up a LOT more.  There's several DeSean types in this draft, I'm not sure one of these other guys won't exceed his value.  

I'm way into Ruggs, but I don't think you're going to unearth any videos other than the main ones. There just wasn't enough. Tyreek Hill-lite is good enough for me. But not where I'm going to be drafting from. Plus, I change my mind on everyone I'm enamored of as I watch the highlights more. So I'm hardly reliable in that sense. The only constant is negativity. 

 

[Ilov80s]

I actually think he will have Ginn's special team ability if he is used in that way.  He seems much faster when the ball is in his hands.  Corners seem to do a decent job on him on vertical routes in man.  He's probably going to have to work on his release and improve his strength.  His hands are way better than Ginn's.  I like Reagor better, as I'm not sure what to make of Ruggs.

Perhaps he has that ability. Just hard to compare when Ginn had 8 special teams TDs and Ruggs had 0.

 

[Ilov80s]

I don't get the Laviska Shenault love.  He looks like an unrefined Mohamed Sanu.

He looks really dangerous with RAC 

 

[Nero]

He looks really dangerous with RAC 

Check out some Mo Sanu college tape.

 

[Boston]

He looks really dangerous with RAC 

Reminds me of Deebo with how hard he runs.

 

[massraider]

Daniel Jeremiah

@MoveTheSticks

Most teams agree on top 4 WR’s and top 2 CB’s (the names, not the order) but then it gets wild. One team’s 5th WR might be another team’s 12th WR. One teams 3rd CB is another teams 8th CB. Can’t remember a year like this one. Impossible to predict anything after top 15-20 picks.

I am sooooo looking forward to how many surprises we gonna have. 

 

[Zyphros]

Someone have a video of Ruggs that is gonna blow me away? 

I'm looking at career highlights, and I am not seeing all time speed. I am certainly not seeing elusiveless, Tyreek Hill-lite.  

I'm seeing a fast guy.  Reagor highlights get my juiced up a LOT more.  There's several DeSean types in this draft, I'm not sure one of these other guys won't exceed his value.  

his 4.22 40 at pro day says something else.  I say that jokingly because he thinks he's ultra fast when he isn't.  Still like him quite a bit but blazing speed is not him.  

If you're looking for a video I guess watch the Oklahoma State game.  In that video it shows the wide range of why people like/dislike him.  There's a lot of plays where he's just standing and watching and not getting invovled with some sloppy routes too.  Then when he finally gets the ball in his hands after a few bad plays, he looks way more electric.  

 

[Andy Dufresne]

his 4.22 40 at pro day says something else.  I say that jokingly because he thinks he's ultra fast when he isn't.  Still like him quite a bit but blazing speed is not him.  

If you're looking for a video I guess watch the Oklahoma State game.  In that video it shows the wide range of why people like/dislike him.  There's a lot of plays where he's just standing and watching and not getting invovled with some sloppy routes too.  Then when he finally gets the ball in his hands after a few bad plays, he looks way more electric.  

Sounds like he's a...wide receiver.