AJ Green had a poor wonderlic too. Patterson has produced everywhere he's played football in a big way. When you walk into the SEC and set a record in your 1st year, that has my attention. If 82.3% of 1st round WRs aren't factors, why should people draft the "safe guy." Which is Hopkins/Hunter in your words. If FF owners played it safe, they would've passed on Randy Moss too. Justin Hunter over Patterson, why? Hunter isn't the same explosively since 2010, dropped more passes than Patterson, and is 1/10 the player after the catch as Patterson. Hunter entered a team with Britt/Wright(competition now and in the future), Jennings isn't going to be in Minny forever.
If Patterson was as advanced a route runner as AJ Green was coming out, I wouldn't worry at all about his smarts. As it is, he's got to learn a NFL play book, and how to run routes, read defenses etc.Patterson has my attention as well. I have him as the 4th best WR in this class.82.3% is a scary number isn't it. If you don't believe me, look it up yourself. I was actually pretty lenient in my grading of the 62 players. If you take out WRs taken in the top 5 of the NFL draft (where the number is 50%), the rest of the class falls down to a 14% chance of hitting on a stud.I don't presume that Hunter or Hopkins are safe picks. I think they are both "safer" than Patterson is however.Lets say the consensus is upside for Patterson and Hunter is a WR1, while Hopkins upside is a WR2.In my mind I'd say their chances of hitting those ceilings goes something like this
atterson 7%Hunter 14%Hopkins 20%Judging Hunter exclusively on his 2012 game tape is flawed logic. We know players aren't the same in year 1 after an ACL tear. It's not like he was terrible either with 73/1083/9. He isn't in Pattersons class after the catch, but he's not a catch and fall guy either.Julio Jones averages about 7 yards after the catch, and AJ Green averages 4.5. Yet they both are among the best WRs in the game.As for the situation in Tennessee, local press is already thinking this will be Britts last year there. Don't really think having Kendall Wright around is going to hurt Hunter. Your guess is as good as mine in comparing Ponder to Locker...
It's flawed logic judging Hunter on his 2012 tape, but it's not flawed logic to dream about his 16 reception freshman season?
Never said your numbers or percentages were off, would be curious to see the names though since you did the study. However, if i'm taking a gamble(they're all gambles) it would be on Patterson. The term "safe" is overrated(even though i've used it before), we have no idea what's going to happen when with these kids in the future: money, football is now a job, jump up in competition, new team, etc. David Terrell was the safest pick in the draft, then he flopped. Brian Robiskie was supposed to be the most NFL ready, etc.
Lets look at the "gamble" associated with each player.
DeAndre Hopkins
-Least athletic player of the three and hope that his lack of great athleticism isn't a hindrance jumping to the NFL
-Best route runner of the 3, this is what makes him good
-2nd in YAC
-Shortest in height
-Best Hands
-Great production last year
-Going to a team with an established #1 WR and they don't throw the ball a ton. They do however, have the best QB of the 3.
To be a great FF contributor: Hopkins needs to continue his great route running, become Houston's future #1 WR(command targets) and hope that his lack of great athleticism doesn't get catch up with him.
Justin Hunter
-If he can return to 2010 form(which is a gamble), he has the best leaping ability of the group. I'd put him on par with Patterson in pure speed. Hunter has never possessed good short area quickness, stop start ability, or change of direction.
-Average route runner
-Worst YAC. If Hunter doesn't have a clear lane to run straight, he isn't going to make much happen. His agility isn't great.
-Tallest of the bunch, but also the skinniest
-Worst Hands
-Flawed 2012 production IMO. He had 4 100 yard games in 2012 vs Troy, Georgia State, Akron, and Missouri(all huge cupcakes). Touchdowns in the other 8 games=1. Yardage totals= 90, 76, 73, 70, 65, 46, 41, 39.
-Going to a team with two former 1st round picks at his position and Jake Locker(hasn't shown much).
For Hunter to be a great FF contributor: Hunter has to put on weight, work on his hands, get completely healthy, improve short area quickness, improve YAC ability, and overcome 2 other young former 1st round picks at his position.
Cordarrelle Patterson
-Most athletic player
-Worst route runner
-Best YAC
-2nd tallest, but heaviest
-2nd best hands, body catches too much but didn't drop as many as Hunter
-Great production for being at Tennessee 1 year
-Goes to an average/below average landing spot. Jennings/Rudolph should see most targets in 2013, Ponder isn't anything special.
For Patterson to be a great FF contributor: He needs to work on his craft more: route running, use hands to catch more, learn little ins/outs of the game. Patterson should get touches right away in return game, reverses, screens, but the downfield stuff he may have to fight it out with Jennings/Rudolph for the next year or two before he could be the #1.
If i'm gambling on a prospect, give me the guy that doesn't have to learn to be athletic or get healthy or bigger or taller. While some of those things can happen, they're less likely than route running.
ETA:
From all of the plays I analysed for that article, he had almost a perfect game. I only say 1 play where Patterson made a move in a one on one situation with a DB in space and he didn't make him miss. That's downright amazing! I'm sure he would continue at that rate, but if he produces half of that...watch out NFL.