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SFO: RB Matt Breida v RB Alfred Morris - which to OWN? (1 Viewer)

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Guys, forgive me if this a duplicate topic - I searched but could not find.

The question is:  SFO: RB Matt Breida v RB Alfred Morris - which to own?

If you were foolish enough (as I was) to draft BOTH - thinking Week 1 would sort out which Shanahan RB is the one to own - completely forgetting that SFO played MIN and that suffocating defense  in Week 1 - what to do now?  Obviously "hang on" another week or couple of weeks to see your plan through would be decent advice but what are your opinions in terms of speculating which is the Shanahan back to own down the road?  (I'm NOT asking which to start).  I also note that Morris turns 30 in 3 months so there's that.

I'd like to quote @Mr. Irrelevant from his excellent 2017 trends that might repeat in 2018:

"

I would have had a lot tougher time finding a suitable candidate for this line item before Jerick McKinnon tore his ACL (although, to be honest, his size and injury history had kept him off my boards at his ADP in any case). But Morris, a street free agent a month ago, could not possibly have walked into a better combination of depth chart and situation than he gets in San Fran. He had his best fantasy years by far under Kyle Shanahan’s zone-blocking scheme in Washington, which his “find the hole, hit the hole” style suits far better than Breida’s jitterbug tendencies.

And for all the improvements to the 49er offense since this time last year, neither the 6’ Garcon nor the 5’9” Goodwin are anyone’s red-zone darlings, and the one who could vie for that role (George Kittle) is perpetually injured. The carries Morris is likely to get inside the 5 could make him fantasy starter-worthy on their own, even before the 800+ rushing yards that are there for the taking. Even at his soaring ADP (if you can call RB42 "soaring"), the downside is modest and the upside significant.

"

 
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I have both as well.  I feel I can't start either. Stuck, thinking of dropping Breida for Lindsay to break the questioning. 

 
I think it's Breida for PPR leagues and Morris for standard leagues, but I don't think either carries much upside unless the other gets hurt. 

 
I think it's Breida for PPR leagues and Morris for standard leagues, but I don't think either carries much upside unless the other gets hurt. 
i agree, i think in ppr breida is the more consistent scorer. They both have terribly low ceilings however.  

 
Morris is the play in standard. This week will make things alot more clear IMO. Hard to take much from last week as they played one of if not the best defenses in the league. I'm predicting 90yards/1TD for Morris this week.
I agree. This week will give a more clear picture. Last week was a throw out. This situation screams avoid to me unless you are stuck with a piece - kind of like the Jets or Packers. No one gets enough work to be a consistent fantasy starter. 

 
I agree. This week will give a more clear picture. Last week was a throw out. This situation screams avoid to me unless you are stuck with a piece - kind of like the Jets or Packers. No one gets enough work to be a consistent fantasy starter. 
Honestly this may be the perfect sell high on Morris this week. Pray he goes big and get out of the situation. I have him on all my teams but in no way is he close to a flex play due to my other options.

 
Honestly this may be the perfect sell high on Morris this week. Pray he goes big and get out of the situation. I have him on all my teams but in no way is he close to a flex play due to my other options.
Yup, exactly where I’m at. I sold ADP after his week 1 performance. Early season is optimal time to trade in mediocre talent with good outings for upside later on in the season. We’re not talking about every week starters here, moreso chess pieces. 

 
Yup, exactly where I’m at. I sold ADP after his week 1 performance. Early season is optimal time to trade in mediocre talent with good outings for upside later on in the season. We’re not talking about every week starters here, moreso chess pieces. 
Yikes. Im all in on Peterson this year. Think you may regret selling.

 
Morris. I have faith Shanahan will give him the opportunity to carry the load. Breida isn't big enough. He will be the 3rd down back.

Morris gets bulk of the carries and GL work. 

 
Feels like this answer could flip flop every week, but I’d rather have Alf. 

IMO he’s better at the stripe, so with all things being equal, gimme the dude who should get the GL opportunities. And that he had such good history with Shanahan doesn’t hurt. 

Upside is probably RB2, floor is a low-end Flex player. Might be TD dependent for weekly value during the first 6 game stretch of the season. The schedule is brutal. 

 
Yeah, "stuck" is the word @RAK713
Definitely agree.  Own both, and kept both this week, letting other teams grab guys like Lindsay Jones Ekeler. 

Breida would be first to go if I do pull the trigger.  Marlon Mack was just dropped.  Considering.  IND situation doesn't look any better.

 
I traded both with OJ Howard for Ajayi, Clement, Ware.

Philly could be a mess but I feel like SF is a 50/50 split which means you can't start either.   Dude then dropped Alf immediately, then made a crazy trade where he gave away Howard and Cohen for peanuts then paid 70% of his faab for Alf.  Go figure.

 
I traded both with OJ Howard for Ajayi, Clement, Ware.

Philly could be a mess but I feel like SF is a 50/50 split which means you can't start either.   Dude then dropped Alf immediately, then made a crazy trade where he gave away Howard and Cohen for peanuts then paid 70% of his faab for Alf.  Go figure.
Ajayi just had a 20 point game with all signs pointing to more work. Why would he do that?

 
Morris is the play in standard. This week will make things alot more clear IMO. Hard to take much from last week as they played one of if not the best defenses in the league. I'm predicting 90yards/1TD for Morris this week.
This.  If you think Morris probably fumbled twice in that game because he was rusty (like I do), trade for him now.  Easily could have had 8 more FP in that game. 

Nothing bad to say about Breida.  But if we’re doing RBBC I’ll take the goal line carries

 
Feels like this answer could flip flop every week, but I’d rather have Alf. 

IMO he’s better at the stripe, so with all things being equal, gimme the dude who should get the GL opportunities. And that he had such good history with Shanahan doesn’t hurt. 

Upside is probably RB2, floor is a low-end Flex player. Might be TD dependent for weekly value during the first 6 game stretch of the season. The schedule is brutal. 
Schedule is brutal?

Next two games against Detroit and KC...additional games against OAK, TB, AZ (x2) (where old man Peterson just put up great numbers) and a shell-of-its-former self SEA (x2).

Swap Morris in and out based on matchup and he should be a great Flex play the rest of the season. Solid RB2 if Breida were to go down.

 
Schedule is brutal?

Next two games against Detroit and KC...additional games against OAK, TB, AZ (x2) (where old man Peterson just put up great numbers) and a shell-of-its-former self SEA (x2).

Swap Morris in and out based on matchup and he should be a great Flex play the rest of the season. Solid RB2 if Breida were to go down.
We’ll see what happens.

detroit is far better than they just played - defense was gassed ny stafford’s awful play. 

expect a tough run defense against SF. Especially if Goodwin is out. They’ll stack the box & dare JimmyG to beat them (who he might).

AZ is a tougher run D than they showed & typically plays SF tough. 

And while Seattle’s secondary isn’t great, they still have a pretty solid run defense. 

My opinion about the early schedule is the same as it’s been. One week doesn’t change that. 

I think they’re all winnable games, but none appear particularly appealing for running back production. 

Also “old man” Peterson is a likely HOF running back behind an arguably better OL than SF. His volume is what got him points, not his 3.x YPC. The devil is often in the details.  

 
Before last week I would say Morris, without question. And then...

1st & 1 @MIN 1Alfred Morris left guard for no gain (tackle by Eric Kendricks). Alfred Morris fumbles (forced by Eric Kendricks), recovered by Alfred Morris at MIN-1

2nd & 1 @MIN 1Alfred Morris middle for -1 yards (tackle by Linval Joseph). Alfred Morris fumbles (forced by Linval Joseph), recovered by Harrison Smith at MIN-2

Back-to-back fumbles at the one. 

 
We’ll see what happens.

detroit is far better than they just played - defense was gassed ny stafford’s awful play. 

expect a tough run defense against SF. Especially if Goodwin is out. They’ll stack the box & dare JimmyG to beat them (who he might).

AZ is a tougher run D than they showed & typically plays SF tough. 

And while Seattle’s secondary isn’t great, they still have a pretty solid run defense. 

My opinion about the early schedule is the same as it’s been. One week doesn’t change that. 

I think they’re all winnable games, but none appear particularly appealing for running back production. 

Also “old man” Peterson is a likely HOF running back behind an arguably better OL than SF. His volume is what got him points, not his 3.x YPC. The devil is often in the details.  
The devil is more often in the facts.

DET, SEA, AZ, OAK, GB, NYG and KC all gave up >4.0ypc in week one. They are all ranked between 19-32 in NFL rushing defenses. (yes, I get that it's one week).

The 49ers have nine remaining fantasy relevant games against those teams.

Basically you're saying none of that matters and they will all suddenly transform themselves into top run defenses when they play the 49ers.

My money says otherwise but good luck.

 
The devil is more often in the facts.

DET, SEA, AZ, OAK, GB, NYG and KC all gave up >4.0ypc in week one. They are all ranked between 19-32 in NFL rushing defenses. (yes, I get that it's one week).

The 49ers have nine remaining fantasy relevant games against those teams.

Basically you're saying none of that matters and they will all suddenly transform themselves into top run defenses when they play the 49ers.

My money says otherwise but good luck.


 No, I’m saying that I’m not ready to change my entire Opinion of those defenses based on the one-week sample size.

 Apparently you are  willing to formulate an entire evaluation based on a one-week sample size. 

 Good luck to you as well. 

 
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Ajayi just had a 20 point game with all signs pointing to more work. Why would he do that?
He originally sent me the offer of Ajayi and Clement for Morris and OJ Howard.....I didn't get to it fast enough and he changed it to Ajayi/Clement/Ware for Morris/Breida/Howard.....He then dropped Morris to make room for the following insane trade:  He gave Jordan Howard/Cohen/Cooks/Olsen for Kelce/RAnderson/KAlexander/Edelman......THEN HE PAID THE 70% TO PICK MORRIS BACK UP??????

Bad week for him I guess overthinking things, guy's been playing for years.

 
I have both as well.  I feel I can't start either. Stuck, thinking of dropping Breida for Lindsay to break the questioning. 
Why would you drop part of a pair you fully own in an uncertain RBBC just so you can buy into only 1 of 2 in another uncertain RBBC? At least with Morris/Breida you have the injury insurance built into your weekly WDIS headache. 

I think it's Breida for PPR leagues and Morris for standard leagues, but I don't think either carries much upside unless the other gets hurt. 
Sounds right. Changes drastically if Morris fumbles again (or gets doghoused for coughing it up last week)... seems like a clear case of Morris being brought in to do what McKinnon was expected to do (even though I still don't understand why they thought McKinnon could do it). If I had to pick one it'd be Morris since he'll get the GL work.

My big hang up in all of this, though, is that Morris was on the street from March to August. That's usually a good indicator a guy isn't really very good any more. 

 
People thinking Breida is a third down back are wildly optimistic. Maybe even delusional. Breida has the upside of being a 2 down back. He and Morris are fighting for the exact same job duties. Breida is WORSE than Morris at catching, so if they would split these duties Alf who would become the third down back (that's still not going to happen). 

With two guys fighting for the same job, I don't see how you can rank them any way other than Morris, then Breida. Maybe the split will change at some point this season. But right now Morris has the edge and it's up to him to lose it. Assuming the fumbles were a blip on the radar (and looking at his history that seems likely), it's Alf's job to lose. 

I don't think this is a particularly enticing fantasy situation regardless of who wins, but if you're dealing with a weak rb team for whatever reason (zero rb/injury/suspension/holdout/crappy draft), Alf should get double digit carries this week. And if he is decent he'll get the same next week. And so on. He's still just borderline rb2 upside at best, but that still has at least some value. 

 
I don't think this is a particularly enticing fantasy situation regardless of who wins, but if you're dealing with a weak rb team for whatever reason (zero rb/injury/suspension/holdout/crappy draft)... 
I bet there is more than one team that drafted Le'Veon Bell and Jerrick McKinnon in the first two rounds.

 
I like the Morris/Shanahan reunion. Even moreso once I found out Breida can't catch.
Odd. 

Morris is now in his 7th year and had four season with over 200 carries and never once did he catch as many balls as Breida did last year. Which included 2 season with Shanahan.

 
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I would rather have Breida.  Just think he is a better all around player at this point.  Hasn't done well as a receiver, but he's better than Morris and as a young player, hopefully something he improves on.

As a Niner fan, I'm hoping to see Breida get a 60-65 percent snap share.  Just don't see Morris as the solution.  

 
Haha, great answer!

Except their next 4 opponents gave up well over 100 on the ground last week. 

3 of them were in the top 10 worst against the run   :mellow:
As I already said - one game isn’t enough of a sample size to change my impression of these defenses coming into the season.

I expect each of these teams to be better against the run than they were last year. 

Including MIN in the opener I thought the Niners had a tough opening schedule against the run.

I’ve been wrong before. I might be her. Time will tell of that’s correct or not. Fair? 

 
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As I already said - one game isn’t enough of a sample size to change my impression of these defenses coming into the season.

I expect each of these teams to be better against the run than they were last year. 

Including MIN in the opened I thought the Niners had a tough opening schedule against the run.

I’ve been wrong before. I might be her. Time will tell of that’s correct or not. Fair? 
Fair enough. 

When I asked what I was missing about it being "brutal" I was being honest. Trying to make sure I wasnt missing something

 
So, are forum members buying Breida now? 

Throwing out week one, for week 2 If you take away his 66 yard TD run his fantasy stats and numbers (11/72 with 4 targets) are still better than Morris' (14/48 with 2 targets).

 
So, are forum members buying Breida now? 

Throwing out week one, for week 2 If you take away his 66 yard TD run his fantasy stats and numbers (11/72 with 4 targets) are still better than Morris' (14/48 with 2 targets).
Breida is definitely the more explosive RB and the one to own but I still think Morris should be rostered. He will still get the goal line touches, also got 16 touches, and I am not convinced Breida can stay healthy.

 
Breida is definitely the one to own going forward. Moreso for the future than this year (considering buying for keeper rights) but he should produce this year as well. The Niners will be a contender and no matter if they are down or up he will be used. 

 
He did look better then Morris this week but we should probably pump the brakes slightly considering Lions probably have the worst run defense in the league.


He did look better then Morris this week but we should probably pump the brakes slightly considering Lions probably have the worst run defense in the league.
Kind of proves my point? Morris couldn’t muster a single 10 yard run on 16 attempts. Brieda had 5

 

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