ZWK
Footballguy
This thread is for my analysis of the 2018 draft class (and other college players). Previously threads: 2017 draft class, 2016 draft class, 2015 draft class, 2014 draft class.
Much of the content of this thread is based on my player stats spreadsheets for WR, RB, RB elusiveness, and QB. I also sometimes have them for TE and pass rushers. Also: birthdates and VBD by draft pick (for generic rookie rankings), and dynasty rankings.
My thoughts on this draft class (and future ones) at the end of last year:
At WR, off to a great start: Cedrick Wilson (Boise St), James Washington (Okla St).
Off to a good start: Courtland Sutton (SMU), Darren Carrington (Utah).
At RB, off to a great start: Saquon Barkley (Penn State). Also, not mentioned before the season: Ronald Jones (USC) and Bryce Love (Stanford).
Off to a good start: Nick Chubb (Georgia), Rashaad Penny (SDSU), Damarea Crockett (Missouri), Ty Johnson (Maryland), Royce Freeman (Oregon).
At QB, off to a great start: Mason Rudolph (Okla St), Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma), Sam Darnold (USC).
Off to a good start: Josh Rosen (UCLA), Lamar Jackson (Louisville), Jake Browning (Washington), Logan Woodside (Toledo).
Notably missing from these lists: WR Equanimeous St. Brown and RB Derrius Guice.
Much of the content of this thread is based on my player stats spreadsheets for WR, RB, RB elusiveness, and QB. I also sometimes have them for TE and pass rushers. Also: birthdates and VBD by draft pick (for generic rookie rankings), and dynasty rankings.
My thoughts on this draft class (and future ones) at the end of last year:
Two games so far this year is a tiny sample size, plus there's some other screwy early season stuff going on with my spreadsheets. But I can at least identify which of the players that I mentioned are off to a great start statistically this year and which ones are off to a good start.Looking ahead to future draft classes, I don't have a system for evaluating devy players but I can look at players' production so far (and their estimated size/speed) to see which players I'd already rate highly as prospects if they were entering the NFL right now.
WR: Taking into account production and estimated size/speed, these are the WRs who already show some promise as prospects (starting with the highest-rated): Courtland Sutton (SMU), Equanimeous St. Brown (Notre Dame), Cody Thompson (Toledo), James Washington (Okla St), Michael Gallup (CSU), Nick Westbrook (Indiana), Jonathan Giles (Texas Tech), Jester Weah (Pittsburgh), Anthony Miller (Memphis), Richie James (MTSU), Allenzae Staggers (USM), Cedrick Wilson (Boise St), Darren Carrington (Oregon). Sutton and St. Brown would already qualify as good receiver prospects (assuming their measured size/speed matched the estimates), while Thompson and Washington are borderline. Westbrook's production isn't quite there yet but he's young and has good size, Carrington looked promising in limited time in 2015 but followed that up with a mediocre 2016, and the others had good enough (though not amazing) production but don't have prototypical size or speed (according to nfldraftscout estimates). Some notable names are missing from this list, including Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk, who both have had terrible efficiency numbers through their first 2 seasons (e.g., they were both in the bottom 5 in yards per target in 2016, among the 100 players with the most receiving yards). I put a lot of weight on a receiver's best season, so either of them (or plenty of other WRs) could shoot up the rankings if they play well in 2017.
RB: Derrius Guice (LSU), Royce Freeman (Oregon), Nick Chubb (Georgia), and Saquon Barkley (Penn State) all rate as high-level RB prospects who would be up there among this year's rd 1-2 backs. Freeman and Chubb both struggled in 2016 and are relying more on good production in previous seasons, and could drop in the rankings if they don't bounce back this year. With Chubb, the big question is how well he'll recover from his injury). There is a larger batch of RBs who have shown some promise, but whose numbers weren't at a level where they would have looked very promising prospects if they had been in this year's draft class (unless they had better-than-expected numbers at the combine): Mike Weber (Ohio State), Ty Johnson (Maryland), Rashaad Penny (SDSU), Benjamin Snell, Jr. (Kentucky), Kerryon Johnson (Auburn), James Butler (Nevada), Damien Harris (Alabama), Ray Lawry (ODU), Damarea Crockett (Missouri), Rawleigh Williams III (Arkansas), Lavon Coleman (Washington), Jarvion Franklin (W Mich), Kalen Ballage (Ariz St), Bo Scarbrough (Alabama), Phillip Lindsay (Colorado), Kyle Hicks (TCU), Ito Smith (USM), Myles Gaskin (Washington).
QB: Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma), Sam Darnold (USC), and Logan Woodside (Toledo) all had elite production last year. Elite production is no guarantee of NFL success, or even of being worth a high draft pick, but they have shown enough in terms of production so that if NFL evaluators like them then I probably will too. Some other QB prospects had pretty good production this year, at a level that might be enough for me to approve of a player as a 2nd round NFL prospect, but I'll need to see an improvement to be that high on any of them: Mike White (Western Ky), Jake Browning (Washington), Deondre Francois (FSU), Mason Rudolph (Okla St), and Austin Allen (Arkansas), Brett Rypien (Boise St), and Lamar Jackson (Louisville). Notable names who missed the cut: Josh Allen (Wyoming) and Josh Rosen (UCLA).
Edge Rushers: Harold Landry (BC), Duke Ejiofor (Wake Forest), Arden Key (LSU), Bradley Chubb (NC State), Dorance Armstrong Jr. (Kansas), Marquis Haynes (Miss), and Ja'Von Rolland-Jones (Ark St) have the strongest combination of production and estimated size/speed.
At WR, off to a great start: Cedrick Wilson (Boise St), James Washington (Okla St).
Off to a good start: Courtland Sutton (SMU), Darren Carrington (Utah).
At RB, off to a great start: Saquon Barkley (Penn State). Also, not mentioned before the season: Ronald Jones (USC) and Bryce Love (Stanford).
Off to a good start: Nick Chubb (Georgia), Rashaad Penny (SDSU), Damarea Crockett (Missouri), Ty Johnson (Maryland), Royce Freeman (Oregon).
At QB, off to a great start: Mason Rudolph (Okla St), Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma), Sam Darnold (USC).
Off to a good start: Josh Rosen (UCLA), Lamar Jackson (Louisville), Jake Browning (Washington), Logan Woodside (Toledo).
Notably missing from these lists: WR Equanimeous St. Brown and RB Derrius Guice.
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