Because you start the 40 going 0 miles per hour and are going full speed for the entirety of the other three 10-yard quartiles.Why is a ten yard split of 1.5 very good? I think math and 10 times 4 is 40 so 1.5 times 4 is 6 and not very good at all.
Hand on stop watch? human delay?
Is that for career or just 2017? He actually played WR his first 2 seasons and had 63/781/1 (12.4 ypr) in those seasons. He played WR in those seasons because State had Matt Dayes as its feature back and Samuels in his hybrid position. Then in his third season, he replaced Dayes as the feature back, but Samuels was a senior in the hybrid position who had 75 catches, and State also had a very strong receiving corps, so Hines didn't get targeted much.Hines was the worst receiver of the bunch according to PFF
Bri said:Why is a ten yard split of 1.5 very good? I think math and 10 times 4 is 40 so 1.5 times 4 is 6 and not very good at all.
Hand on stop watch? human delay?
Hines's receiving grade was lower than the other guys this year, and on average over the past 3 years. Hines did have a good receiving grade in 2016 and was okay on the whole, it's just that the other guys were better. Or at least, Ito Smith & Larry Rose were better; I'm not sure about Stockton - he's ranked so low that PFF doesn't share the details on his grades. Boston Scott also has better receiving grades than Hines but Scott didn't have nearly as many receptions or receiving yards.Just Win Baby said:Is that for career or just 2017? He actually played WR his first 2 seasons and had 63/781/1 (12.4 ypr) in those seasons. He played WR in those seasons because State had Matt Dayes as its feature back and Samuels in his hybrid position. Then in his third season, he replaced Dayes as the feature back, but Samuels was a senior in the hybrid position who had 75 catches, and State also had a very strong receiving corps, so Hines didn't get targeted much.
It is also worth noting that Hines is a good pass blocker and is good on special teams coverage in addition to returns.
I think his landing spot matters a lot. He could have value with a creative OC.
You can see more detail about backs from previous draft classes via the links in the first post in this thread which go to their draft class. Briefly, Derrick Henry had gaudy totals but middling per-carry efficiency stats and didn't do much in the passing game, Fournette had great production in his next-to-last season but not in his last season, and Sankey was above average on a lot of attributes but didn't stand out as great at anything.Why is Derrick Henry not higher? Heisman, gaudy stats, size and power, high average...I would figure he's pretty high. I clicked and you mentioned elusiveness grade from PFF. I don't know what that is but would assume he's low there.
Sankey was the top RB and first RB taken during a weak draft for RBs. I understand him lower but to a point.
Leonard Fournette is a million times better than Andre Williams. Do ya think his ranking is off?
Where are you at evaluating and tweaking your system?
Strange that most of the receivers who have succeeded in the NFL are in the middle or near bottom of this list.Matt Harmon so far has Reception Perception data up for 11 WRs in this draft class. I have crunched the numbers on his data to calculate an overall score for how often they get open. Here the rankings, compared to the guys in past 2 draft classes:
Carlos Henderson 2017
Sterling Shepard 2016
DaeSean Hamilton 2018
Isaiah Ford 2017
Equanimeous St. Brown 2018
Calvin Ridley 2018
Josh Doctson 2016
Chris Godwin 2017
James Washington 2018
Rashard Higgins 2016
DJ Moore 2018
Josh Reynolds 2017
Corey Coleman 2016
Ryan Switzer 2017
Mike Williams 2017
Christian Kirk 2018
John Ross 2017
Laquon Treadwell 2016
Taywan Taylor 2017
Corey Davis 2017
Michael Thomas 2016
Malcolm Mitchell 2016
Mike Thomas 2016
Chad Hansen 2017
Zay Jones 2017
Courtland Sutton 2018
Anthony Miller 2018
Michael Gallup 2018
Ishmael Zamora 2017
Leonte Carroo 2016
Kenny Lawler 2016
(average)
Keyarris Garrett 2016
Ardarius Stewart 2017
JuJu Smith-Schuster 2017
Will Fuller 2016
Josh Malone 2017
Braxton Miller 2016
Demarcus Robinson 2016
DJ Chark 2018
Dante Pettis 2018
Tajae Sharpe 2016
Pharoh Cooper 2016
De'Runnya Wilson 2016
Roger Lewis 2016
Dede Westbrook 2017
Cooper Kupp 2017
Charone Peake 2016
Amara Darboh 2017
Aaron Burbridge 2016
Tyler Boyd 2016
Malachi Dupre 2017
This was exactly my thoughts when I read it. I was wondering if being on the top of this list is an indication you should avoid.Strange that most of the receivers who have succeeded in the NFL are in the middle or near bottom of this list.
There is a theory that route running success is partially correlated with age and level of competition.cloppbeast said:Strange that most of the receivers who have succeeded in the NFL are in the middle or near bottom of this list.
I am surprised to see Equanimeous St. Brown so high on this list.ZWK said:Matt Harmon so far has Reception Perception data up for 11 WRs in this draft class. I have crunched the numbers on his data to calculate an overall score for how often they get open. Here the rankings, compared to the guys in past 2 draft classes:
Carlos Henderson 2017
Sterling Shepard 2016
DaeSean Hamilton 2018
Isaiah Ford 2017
Equanimeous St. Brown 2018
Calvin Ridley 2018
Josh Doctson 2016
Chris Godwin 2017
James Washington 2018
Rashard Higgins 2016
DJ Moore 2018
Josh Reynolds 2017
Corey Coleman 2016
Ryan Switzer 2017
Mike Williams 2017
Christian Kirk 2018
John Ross 2017
Laquon Treadwell 2016
Taywan Taylor 2017
Corey Davis 2017
Michael Thomas 2016
Malcolm Mitchell 2016
Mike Thomas 2016
Chad Hansen 2017
Zay Jones 2017
Courtland Sutton 2018
Anthony Miller 2018
Michael Gallup 2018
Ishmael Zamora 2017
Leonte Carroo 2016
Kenny Lawler 2016
(average)
Keyarris Garrett 2016
Ardarius Stewart 2017
JuJu Smith-Schuster 2017
Will Fuller 2016
Josh Malone 2017
Braxton Miller 2016
Demarcus Robinson 2016
DJ Chark 2018
Dante Pettis 2018
Tajae Sharpe 2016
Pharoh Cooper 2016
De'Runnya Wilson 2016
Roger Lewis 2016
Dede Westbrook 2017
Cooper Kupp 2017
Charone Peake 2016
Amara Darboh 2017
Aaron Burbridge 2016
Tyler Boyd 2016
Malachi Dupre 2017
I did include a strength of schedule adjustment.There is a theory that route running success is partially correlated with age and level of competition.
Harmon has more to say in his article, Hard to Find the Faults in Equanimeous St. Brown’s Game. (He has individual articles about most of the guys in this year's group.) It's interesting because St. Brown's production was way down this year compared to last year, and he still put up strong numbers with Harmon charting games from this season.I am surprised to see Equanimeous St. Brown so high on this list.
Yeah, this has 'small sample size' written all over it.ZWK said:It is just the past 2 draft classes, so there aren't many WR successes. I think I'd just count Michael Thomas, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Cooper Kupp. So not much data to tell how meaningful this stat is. He has also done some charting of NFL WRs, which I'm going to try to take a closer look at sometime this offseason. My current guess is that this stat is mildly to moderately informative - higher scores are better - but it's not hugely important.
Cooper Kupp is quite the anomaly then.There is a theory that route running success is partially correlated with age and level of competition.
My comment wasn’t meant to be insulting to older prospects but actually Kupp is an outlier to that thought process. Ridley and Pringle will be this year. It’s not something that would cause me to dismiss someone. Ridley I wanted to dismiss but I think he could be a good WR2 in the NFL. I think the early talk of him being a premier option at the NFL level is a little over the top though.Cooper Kupp is quite the anomaly then.
How so? Kupp will be 25 before the start of his 2nd NFL season. He is old. Funchess for example will be turnig 24 this month and heading into his 4th season. Kupp looks good now, but I think when we look back in a couple years, Kupp won't be so highly thought of. I don't see him being much better than he was last year.Cooper Kupp is quite the anomaly then.
I agree. It's possible we've already seen close to Kupp's ceiling already.How so? Kupp will be 25 before the start of his 2nd NFL season. He is old. Funchess for example will be turnig 24 this month and heading into his 4th season. Kupp looks good now, but I think when we look back in a couple years, Kupp won't be so highly thought of. I don't see him being much better than he was last year.
Yeah, me too. But I've really come around on him since reading the article ZWK posted. For me, he has a good shot at bonafide WR1.I am surprised to see Equanimeous St. Brown so high on this list.
Now it's public. Their rankings (with my tier breaks and labels):Football Outsiders has their BackCAST RB ratings out, behind an ESPN paywall for now.
The gist: they see Saquon Barkley as a generational prospect, then after a sizeable gap there's a tier of solid prospects in Royce Freeman, Derrius Guice, Rashaad Penny, Nick Chubb, and Ronald Jones II. They aren't that high on anyone else, including Sony Michel & Kerryon Johnson.
This broadly matches up with what my formula is saying, except my formula is a bit higher on Chubb and a bit lower on Guice & Jones. I think my opinions on this batch of players are closer to their formula than to mine.
That’s possible but I think it’s more likely that he improves. Last year was his first time consistently playing against high level competition. He had some warts but in college, he was not challenged in the same way. He is a player whose success based not on speed or physicality but on things like route running. Guys who are great route runners are all about the mastery of their craft and I think he will improve from last year.I agree. It's possible we've already seen close to Kupp's ceiling already.
Somehow didn't realize it was that low, Makes me hate Kurt Roper even more.Hayden Hurst is highly regarded but his production hasn't been good; he had a grand total of 4 touchdowns over his entire college career.
From what I have seen of Johnson he is very good in some areas very difficult to quantify, such as his patience, vision and pad level. He reminds me a bit of Jordan Howard, but you bring up some good points against him.ZWK said:To say a little more about why I'm down on Kerryon Johnson. First, a lack of big plays. He had a grand total of 14 20+ yard runs over the course of his career, when an average RB would've had about 24 of them. So, he was well below average at breaking off long runs, while most promising prospects are above average. Second, PFF has him below average yards after contact per attempt and average at missed tackles per attempt. Again, most good prospects are above average. Finally, there's the fact that he didn't beat out Kamryn Pettway, who is the same class year and a bad NFL prospect. In 2016 Pettway was Auburn's RB 1a to Johnson's 1b, and in 2017 Johnson took over the workhorse role by default with Pettway missing most of the season.
The main points in Johnson's favor are that he jumped really well at the combine and was effective in short yardage situations.
Often indecisive.From what I have seen of Johnson he is very good in some areas very difficult to quantify, such as his patience, vision and pad level. He reminds me a bit of Jordan Howard, but you bring up some good points against him.
True. He does have some good burst though once he does make up his mind.Often indecisive.
Have you done a combined rookies ranking?I've posted my dynasty WR rankings in my other thread, and the RB rankings too; you can see where the rookies slot on as well as some discussion (e.g., on why DJ Moore vs. Corey Davis is a close call). TEs and QBs probably coming over the next few days.
I also had a bit to say about the rookie TEs in the rookie TE thread. It's basically in line with my rookie rankings which are a few posts up, but gives some more of the reasoning.