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Eminence 2016 Rookie Rankings (1 Viewer)

E

Eminence

Footballguy
1.01 - Ezekiel Elliot

He's the one player that is guaranteed a large volume of touches. The number one back isn't always a success but it's nice to land "the guy" when you're in position to get him.

1.02 - Josh Doctson

From what I've seen on tape, he is an extremely polished receiver. He reminds me of Andre Johnson with better hops. I'm actually pretty bullish on Kirk Cousins and the Redskins offense this season. I get an Arizona Cardinals resurgence vibe from them. I feel like the separation ability and catch radius he has is similar to Jordan Reed and Cousins has shown great chemistry with him.

1.03 - Corey Coleman

He's explosive. Similar to Desean Jackson and Brandin Cooks. The risk here is that he's playing for Cleveland but to me I hear "garbage time". Not sure what his ceiling is in PPR but I am confident that he has talent as a football player.

1.04 - Laquan Treadwell

The Vikings aren't an ideal spot but he reminds me of Justin Blackmon. I just don't think you can rely on Teddy Bridgewater for fantasy production though but I do think he can lead the team in targets year-2.

1.05 - Derrick Henry

Tennessee has two very talented running backs. I can see Henry being a fixture in the redzone and on short yardage.

1.06 - Shepard Sterling

He makes perfect sense going to the Giants. I've seen Eli Manning throw to guys like Sterling for years, in fact I think he can step in and produce what Rueben Randle did last year if given the chance.

1.07 - Austin Hooper

The Falcons found their replacement to Tony Gonzalez. Toilolo had a chance last year and did nothing with it. Matt Ryan had proven he can sustain a TE in an offense.

1.08 - C.J. Prosise

He'll likely be Seattle's 3rd down back and that offers plenty of opportunity. He's not competing for snaps against Rawls. Pete Carroll showed me he was objective about talent evaluation when he started Russell Wilson as a rookie.

1.09 - Kenneth Dixon

He reminds me of Ahmad Bradshaw. Unforunately, Baltimore's backfield is pretty crowded. He fits Marc Trestman's offense but so does Justin Forsett. Hopefully the coach falls in love with the rookie.

1.10 - Will Fuller

He's pretty talented but DeAndre Hopkins absorbs an absurd amount of targets. Also not sold on Osweiler.

1.11 - Pharoh Cooper

Cooper is very talented, imo. He's also somewhat of a project player. Landing in St. Louis is interesting, I think he can definitely land a starting position in this offense. Disciplined army kid. Great speed, high motor. Build reminds me of Anquan Boldin.

1.12 - Tyler Boyd

He's an awesome Wide Receiver but I'm not sold on how much opportunity he'll have in Cincinnati.

Michael Thomas

Plays with Drew Brees.

Paul Perkins

No official starter in New York.

Alex Collins

Awesome player, stuck behind Thomas Rawls for playing time.

Keith Marshall

Has wheels and opportunity in Washington.

DeAndre Washington

Change of pace back behind Latavius Murray. Can see him racking up a legitimate amount of touches. Reminds me of MJD.

Jared Goff

At this point the level of talent at RB and WR drops off to the point where you start grabbing QBs.

Jordan Howard

Has a chance to make a splash in Chicago. Incumbent starter Jeremy Langford rushed for under 4 ypc last season.

Carson Wentz

There are enough weapons for him in Philadelphia. No one else available is likely to make a year-1 impact.

Hunter Henry

Could develop into Phillip Rivers' main option.

Devontae Booker

Not the biggest fan of him on tape but he's at least as talented as CJ Anderson, imo.

Kelvin Taylor

Big fan of him, Carlos Hyde has not shown he can get the job done over 16 games. I think Taylor is such a solid technique guy that it makes up for his shortcomings physically. Has potential to be fantasy relevant, sleeper pick here with Carlos Hyde potentially being injury prone.

Moritz Boehringer

I like his story, his size, and his wheels. Deep sleeper. White Charles Johnson.

Kenyan Drake

Physically talented and will see a role in this offense. I just don't see him having 3-down back potential.

Braxton Miller

He has the physical talent but I hate holding onto a developmental guy on a team without a proven QB. What's left for him after Hopkins and Fuller get theirs?

Roberto Aguayo

He might be the new kicking messiah.

Paxton Lynch

Probably won't start this year and there's question marks on how much Sanders and Thomas will have in the tank when he gets his chance to start.

Daniel Lasco

Fits the mold of a Saints running back. Much more talented than Tim HIghtower. Could easily take over Mark Ingram's role, imo.

Tyler Irvin

You draft him and hope you can get lucky on the day he returns a kick or hits on a screen pass.

Do not draft:

Leonte Carroo

 
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1.07 - C.J. Prosise

He'll likely be Seattle's 3rd down back and that offers plenty of opportunity. He's not competing for snaps against Rawls. Pete Carroll showed me he was objective about talent evaluation when he started Russell Wilson as a rookie.
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Watching his film, he looks exactly like a WR who played RB for 1 year. Which is what he was. 

I dont see how he ever is a volume player. Im easily passing on him in the 1st.

 
smoke monster said:
Not bad, way too high on Prosise for me, would also like to know what you have against Caroo, and I think it's dumb to just shove the QB's so far down. You're not looking for a year 1 impact from a rookie QB. My question is do you think any QB can finish top 10 3-5 years from now? If so, you have them too low. I highly doubt Henry ever becomes River's main option. 

Also if Lasco could take over for Ingram why would you put him behind Drake who "doesn't have 3 down potential".

And your QB rankings in general are very run of the mill. Goff, Wentz, Lynch, snore.....who do you think if anyone will be the Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson, or Tom Brady of this draft?
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A top 10 QB is worth nothing in 12 team 1 QB leagues.  If you told me that you could 100% guarantee one of these guys would be in the 7-10 range for the rest of their careers I would have zero interest in them.  Only top 3 potential or even likelihood matters for QBs in those leagues and if you don't feel these guys have that, you rank them low.

Also you fault him for doing something different in your first paragraph and then fault him for not doing something different in the 3rd.  Which do you want?

 
FreeBaGeL said:
A top 10 QB is worth nothing in 12 team 1 QB leagues.  If you told me that you could 100% guarantee one of these guys would be in the 7-10 range for the rest of their careers I would have zero interest in them.  Only top 3 potential or even likelihood matters for QBs in those leagues and if you don't feel these guys have that, you rank them low.

Also you fault him for doing something different in your first paragraph and then fault him for not doing something different in the 3rd.  Which do you want?
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Agreed on the QBs. I've heard several people saying they should be considered in late 1 because of how weak this class is but who the he!! is paying any kind of a 1 for even an established 7-10 guy? 

 
WheelsUp said:
Dont draft Carroo, why? Hooper at 6 seems like a stretch.
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He's a decent talent but his situation in Miami is foul, I have a hard time seeing him becoming a big time fantasy contributor.

Hooper has one of the easiest paths to a starting. Atlanta has been terrible at TE since Tony Gonzalez retired.

 
smoke monster said:
Not bad, way too high on Prosise for me, would also like to know what you have against Caroo, and I think it's dumb to just shove the QB's so far down. You're not looking for a year 1 impact from a rookie QB. My question is do you think any QB can finish top 10 3-5 years from now? If so, you have them too low. I highly doubt Henry ever becomes River's main option. 

Also if Lasco could take over for Ingram why would you put him behind Drake who "doesn't have 3 down potential".

And your QB rankings in general are very run of the mill. Goff, Wentz, Lynch, snore.....who do you think if anyone will be the Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson, or Tom Brady of this draft?
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Carroo just seems run of the mill to me, I don't really see a high ceiling for him in Miami. Might be a blind spot but I want no part of that guy.

I don't waste my time on rookie QBs in general. Who was the last rookie to make some legit noise? Can Newton? I'd rather take a RB or WR that can help me now than a QB who "might" produce for me down the road. Way more servicable QBs than RBs.

I think Jared Goff can be a 30+ Touchdown guy in a few years.

Kenyan Drake will have a role no matter what. Lasco needs an Ingram injury to have a path to playing time.

I'm no QB whisperer, besides the obvious big 3, there's no indication that any other QB will take a regular season snap barring injury over the next 2-3 years.

 
BigSteelThrill said:
Watching his film, he looks exactly like a WR who played RB for 1 year. Which is what he was. 

I dont see how he ever is a volume player. Im easily passing on him in the 1st.
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I'm not going to write off a guy for something he hasn't had a chance to do. You said it yourself, he's been a RB for one year.

He's built like Leveon Bell and will be the 3rd down back immediately in Seattle. 

 
Caroo is the biggest head scratcher of the NFL draft for me (besides the kicker in round 2).  A lot of people were very high on him.  It makes me wonder what the Fins think of Parker and Landry.  Is Parker's foot problem more of a risk than they have let on?  Maybe having a strong 3rd receiver (not named Stills) is all they wanted and that's the end of the story.  It would dilute the targets for all three, but that can be a highly effective real football strategy.  Hurts our fantasy outlooks, sure, but that hardly means he isn't draftable.  What if he blows up and Parker hurts his foot again?  What if he blows up but gets sent to a different team in a couple years (or Parker or Landry for that matter)?  The opportunity looks pretty grim in Miami, but he is certainly worth a pick somewhere in there.  In my dynasty leagues we can keep a rookie on a taxi squad for three years before having to do something with them.  Small risk.  I'd take him over any QB this year.  The comments above regarding QBs are spot on, in a 1-QB league.  Good list, though, thanks for putting it together.  It's ok that we don't all agree.

 
Eminence said:
I'm not going to write off a guy for something he hasn't had a chance to do. You said it yourself, he's been a RB for one year.

He's built like Leveon Bell and will be the 3rd down back immediately in Seattle. 
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Not to me. He is built like a WR.  And he runs like one too. Where is the physicality?  He has a role, but not a 1st round dynasty role.

 
Eminence said:
Oh, they are. I want no part in him and his situation.
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It looks to me from the rankings and subsequent comments by you that your dynasty outlook is for only a year or two out.  Some people completely ignore situation for dynasty rankings and look at talent only knowing how fast things change in the NFL. 

 
cockroach said:
It looks to me from the rankings and subsequent comments by you that your dynasty outlook is for only a year or two out.  Some people completely ignore situation for dynasty rankings and look at talent only knowing how fast things change in the NFL. 
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If you're not building to win in 1-2 years, you're playing with yourself. I've seen guys chase "upside" and I've seen guys chase "production".

You want both, obviously. But there's going to be another Leonte Carroo in next year's draft that will land with Andrew Luck or something.

 
smoke monster said:
A top 10 QB is worth nothing? Is the top 5 the same every year? I bet a lot of people with Andrew Luck were wishing they had another top 10 QB last year. If a guy is top 10 in his first few years he will probably have potential to post a top 3 season at some point. If he doesn't think any of them are that good then fine. I think at least 1 guy will emerge who you want to own. If you're saying I'm faulting him for Prosise and that he's done something different, well I just happen to not like Prosise. And overall I just disagree with your premise that top 10 QB's are nothing.  :bye:
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The guys who had Andrew Luck just picked up Ryan Fitzpatrick.

What is Eli Manning's trade value in your league?  Matt Stafford's?

You practically have to try to not have a perennial top 10ish QB in a dynasty league.  There are like 15 interchangeable guys in that tier.  If you think a guy has top 3 potential especially for multiple seasons then by all means, go for it.  But QB10 or QB20 makes almost no difference because if you don't have a top 12 QB, you can get one for practically nothing. 

 
Eminence said:
If you're not building to win in 1-2 years, you're playing with yourself. I've seen guys chase "upside" and I've seen guys chase "production".

You want both, obviously. But there's going to be another Leonte Carroo in next year's draft that will land with Andrew Luck or something.
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Things can change fast, sometimes just takes an injury.  I'd rather sit on a guy like Carroo and wait for an opportunity over taking a guy with good opportunity but limited ceiling.  Obviously, depends on what type of team you have and whether you can sit and wait.  Just think where Carroo is slipping in drafts, he is a great value pick.  Have no idea why he'd be listed as someone to avoid.  Dolphins traded up to select him in 3rd, they clearly think pretty highly of him.  He's a tough guy to buy in my opinion if he is going 1st round, but due to his drop in drafts I think he's a real bargain.  He went between 18-31 in my three leagues.  

 
Eminence said:
Oh, they are. I want no part in him and his situation.
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Some one that is drafting in the range it would take to land Carroo likely doesn't need a player to step in and contribute to their line-up right away.

Your approach is short sighted and not for me - but thanks for posting to get some discussion going.

 
Eminence said:
Daniel Lasco

Fits the mold of a Saints running back. Much more talented than Tim HIghtower. Could easily take over Mark Ingram's role, imo.
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This is too favorable. Right off the bat, this reads like he's your buddy or you went to school with him or somesuch. It just doesn't fit

 
Eminence said:
1.10 - Will Fuller

He's pretty talented but DeAndre Hopkins absorbs an absurd amount of targets. Also not sold on Osweiler.

Braxton Miller

He has the physical talent but I hate holding onto a developmental guy on a team without a proven QB. What's left for him after Hopkins and Fuller get theirs?
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The Texans had a terrible offense. It was hand the rock to Arian or pass to DeAndre and before that Andre. Arian got hurt and things got worse. There were other weeks (and I don't know a rhyme or reason for it) that Nate and Shorts got work in. They moved the ball pretty decent with 3 WRs and naturally it didn't look so forced to DeAndre.

Everyone seems similar to you in that they feel they need to pick one. I don't get that. Most teams have 3 WRs that produce and the Texans have a shot at a genuine looking offense this year- typical NFL O. I think it should be both considered to produce or maybe last year's rook or someone else steps up.

Shorts might get injured too often but he's a player. The vast majority seem to discard him and think the rooks passed him by on draft day. I doubt that's true. 

Nate Washington actually looked good there some weeks. And it didn't impact DeAndre much at all. A Texans fan could better explain but there's gotta be a model there. Have one of these rooks play Nate's role when he did well. 

Regardless, I don't think what they want is the Lions Calvin offense with DeAndre or their former offense with Andre. I think they want a genuine normal NFL O. You get others rolling, DeAndre will still get his. It might not seem like 20 catches for 140 yards but be 8 for 110 yards...but still, he'll get his.

 
Eminence said:
He's my last player off the board, lol.
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7th rounder "much more talented" than Hightower, a 5th rounder with NFL experience? "Easily" take over for Ingram-one of the better college backs in recent memory who has finally established himself in the NFL. That's awfully ambitious.

It's fine, I like it when someone latches on to a guy and says he'll do better than expected. It gives me something to keep an eye on. It's just like I said, it's a bit strong asking a lot of a 7th rounder

 
Daniel Braverman will play slot for the Bears this year.  With Kevin White and Alshon outside he may be a gem.

Surprised Eminence didn't have him on his list.

 
WheelsUp said:
Dont draft Carroo, why? Hooper at 6 seems like a stretch.
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The "Do Not Draft Carroo" alone makes me question the legitimacy of your rankings. Makes no sense to me.

from Rotoworld:

Analysis: The Vikings receive a sixth round pick (no. 186) in the 2016 draft, along with a third and fourth round pick in 2017. That is a hefty price tag. Carroo (6'0/211) finished his college career with 122 catches for 2,373 yards (19.5 YPR) and 29 TDs before turning in a solid Combine workout, running 4.5-flat with a 35 1/2-inch vertical and 10-foot broad jump. College Football Focus charted Carroo with the nation's second-highest yards-per-target average (14.2) as a senior, wherein Carroo showed the ability to high point and make tough catches in traffic. Carroo is a superb route runner with experience at X, slot, and Z in Rutgers' pro-style offense. While not necessarily a vertical threat -- many of his big plays were manufactured off play-action -- Carroo has a chance to become a high-end No. 2 NFL receiver.

 
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Bri said:
7th rounder "much more talented" than Hightower, a 5th rounder with NFL experience? "Easily" take over for Ingram-one of the better college backs in recent memory who has finally established himself in the NFL. That's awfully ambitious.

It's fine, I like it when someone latches on to a guy and says he'll do better than expected. It gives me something to keep an eye on. It's just like I said, it's a bit strong asking a lot of a 7th rounder
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Tim Hightower is going to be 30 when the season starts. Daniel Lasco is 23.

I don't think it's a stretch to lean on fresh legs. I don't think he's going to see playing time but I feel he's got the ability to pass up Hightower and be Ingram's backup.

Lots of RZ potential.

eta: I like you scrutinizing my rankings, appreciate it. There probably are going to be a few things that are flat out wrong. No crystal ball here.

 
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Vector said:
Daniel Braverman will play slot for the Bears this year.  With Kevin White and Alshon outside he may be a gem.

Surprised Eminence didn't have him on his list.
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He may do well but when you've got Kevin White, Alshon Jeffery, and Zach Miller in the fray it's hard to imagine the Rookie developing a niche for himself.

Earl Bennett did well out of the slot but never materialized into a legitimate fantasy option.

 
Casting Couch said:
The "Do Not Draft Carroo" alone makes me question the legitimacy of your rankings. Makes no sense to me.

from Rotoworld:

Analysis: The Vikings receive a sixth round pick (no. 186) in the 2016 draft, along with a third and fourth round pick in 2017. That is a hefty price tag. Carroo (6'0/211) finished his college career with 122 catches for 2,373 yards (19.5 YPR) and 29 TDs before turning in a solid Combine workout, running 4.5-flat with a 35 1/2-inch vertical and 10-foot broad jump. College Football Focus charted Carroo with the nation's second-highest yards-per-target average (14.2) as a senior, wherein Carroo showed the ability to high point and make tough catches in traffic. Carroo is a superb route runner with experience at X, slot, and Z in Rutgers' pro-style offense. While not necessarily a vertical threat -- many of his big plays were manufactured off play-action -- Carroo has a chance to become a high-end No. 2 NFL receiver.
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Which is totally fine, if he had landed elsewhere my perception would be different. I'm just pressed to find upside with him in Miami.

I don't want a piece of that pie. If you don't mind his situation and like his talent, take him somewhere between 19 - 24.

There'll will be another Leeonte Carroo who comes out next year. I won't kick myself too hard for not grabbing this guy. I don't see him as a guy who'll eclipse 800 yards consistently.

 
BigSteelThrill said:
Watching his film, he looks exactly like a WR who played RB for 1 year. Which is what he was. 

I dont see how he ever is a volume player. Im easily passing on him in the 1st.
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I remember preparing for my NCAA FF draft last season and reading up on the ND RB situation.  If I recall they were fully set on rolling with Tarean Folston as he had beaten out other players, including Prosise (even though he was still considered a bit of an up and coming project and a tweener, but was fully in the RB/offensive weapon competition).  I have a hard time taking him this high and thinking he'll hit at RB when he probably wasn't the best RB on that team.  We all could just as easily be taking Folston at this spot if he hadn't blown his knee or was a year older.  He was probably the better RB last season and a good up and coming one at that.

Maybe I'm off, but our draft was late. I drafted Folston who won that job over Prosise.  Sure in the end, Prosise actually put the stats down with good performances (due to injury) but it's something to think about his talent translating I think.

 
Em was pretty down on Parker last year, so being down on Carroo is consistent if he isn't a believer in Tannehill.  It is important to point out though that Tannehill gets much cheaper to part with if he doesn't perform this year.

Always appreciate your thoughts on the rookies, Em.

 
barackdhouse said:
Caroo is the biggest head scratcher of the NFL draft for me (besides the kicker in round 2).  A lot of people were very high on him.  It makes me wonder what the Fins think of Parker and Landry.  Is Parker's foot problem more of a risk than they have let on?  Maybe having a strong 3rd receiver (not named Stills) is all they wanted and that's the end of the story.  It would dilute the targets for all three, but that can be a highly effective real football strategy.  Hurts our fantasy outlooks, sure, but that hardly means he isn't draftable.  What if he blows up and Parker hurts his foot again?  What if he blows up but gets sent to a different team in a couple years (or Parker or Landry for that matter)?  The opportunity looks pretty grim in Miami, but he is certainly worth a pick somewhere in there.  In my dynasty leagues we can keep a rookie on a taxi squad for three years before having to do something with them.  Small risk.  I'd take him over any QB this year.  The comments above regarding QBs are spot on, in a 1-QB league.  Good list, though, thanks for putting it together.  It's ok that we don't all agree.
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They see Landry for what he is. You aren't winning games throwing to Landry 10 times a game. He gives you awful value per target. 

 
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