I posted my
RB rankings a few days ago. Now here's a more in-depth look at which RBs are the best at getting the tough yard.
Instead of writing a bunch of words, I'll build this post around 3 lists ranking RBs. List 1: RBs ranked by short yardage conversion rate - who is picking up the first down most consistently on 3rd & short (and whose team is trusting them with those carries). List 2: red zone TD rate - who is getting into the end zone with their red zone carries, and whose team is trusting them with those carries. List 3: capped yards after contact in traffic, based on
my game charting - how many extra yards do RBs pick up after the defense first gets a chance to tackle them, when they're facing multiple defenders or they don't have room to maneuver.
I've included 26 RBs in these lists, 20 with a shot at being taken in the first 3 rounds this year, and 6 with a shot at being taken in the first round next year (the non draft eligible RBs are marked with a *).
First, short yardage conversion rate. This includes all carries on 3rd & 3 or less or on 4th down, in 2014 and 2015. A first down or a touchdown counts as a success (and some plays which are both first downs and touchdowns wind up getting doublecounted as successes, because of the weird way that those stats get tracked.) Data from
cfbstats.
Short Yardage Conversion Rate
85.3% Johnny Jefferson Baylor (34 att)
85.2% Matt Breida Ga South (27 att)
84.2% Jonathan Williams Arkansas (19 att)
83.6% Devontae Booker Utah (61 att)
82.5% Samaje Perine Oklahoma (40 att) *
80.6% DeAndre Washington Texas Tech (31 att)
78.3% Elijah McGuire La-Lafytte (23 att)
77.6% Ezekiel Elliott Ohio State (67 att)
75.0% Kelvin Taylor Florida (32 att)
75.0% Wayne Gallman Clemson (40 att)
75.0% Jordan Howard Indiana/UAB (52 att)
74.1% Royce Freeman Oregon (54 att) *
73.7% Christian McCaffrey Stanford (19 att) *
73.5% Shock Linwood Baylor (49 att)
72.7% Alex Collins Arkansas (22 att)
69.2% Derrick Henry Alabama (39 att)
69.0% Paul Perkins UCLA (42 att)
67.6% Kareem Hunt Toledo (34 att)
66.7% Corey Clement Wisconsin (15 att)
64.3% Wendell Smallwood WVU (28 att)
63.6% Nick Chubb Georgia (22 att) *
62.5% Kenneth Dixon La Tech (32 att)
61.5% Aaron Green TCU (26 att)
50.0% Leonard Fournette LSU (22 att) *
47.1% Dalvin Cook FSU (17 att) *
33.3% C.J. Prosise Notre Dame (6 att)
Having a high conversion rate with a large number of attempts is the best sign here, since it means 1) that the RB was very effective at converting with the chances that he got, 2) that there's a large enough sample size so that the high conversion rate is less likely to reflect chance, and 3) that the team trusted the RB in short yardage situations enough to give him a bunch of carries.
Second, red zone TD rate. Again, data from
cfbstats from 2014 and 2015. This is just number of touchdowns scored on red zone carries, divided by number of carries in the red zone.
Red Zone TD Rate
32.30% Kenneth Dixon La Tech (99 att)
30.00% Alex Collins Arkansas (50 att)
29.30% Leonard Fournette LSU (75 att) *
29.10% Matt Breida Ga South (55 att)
29.10% Ezekiel Elliott Ohio State (103 att)
29.00% Elijah McGuire La-Lafytte (62 att)
28.30% Kelvin Taylor Florida (46 att)
27.00% Samaje Perine Oklahoma (100 att) *
26.70% Kareem Hunt Toledo (75 att)
26.20% Johnny Jefferson Baylor (42 att)
25.20% Royce Freeman Oregon (115 att) *
24.50% Shock Linwood Baylor (94 att)
24.30% Paul Perkins UCLA (70 att)
23.70% Derrick Henry Alabama (97 att)
23.70% Corey Clement Wisconsin (38 att)
23.40% Jonathan Williams Arkansas (47 att)
23.10% C.J. Prosise Notre Dame (26 att)
20.70% DeAndre Washington Texas Tech (111 att)
19.50% Nick Chubb Georgia (41 att) *
19.20% Aaron Green TCU (78 att)
18.90% Jordan Howard Indiana/UAB (90 att)
18.80% Devontae Booker Utah (69 att)
18.80% Dalvin Cook FSU (64 att) *
17.90% Wayne Gallman Clemson (67 att)
11.50% Wendell Smallwood WVU (61 att)
8.80% Christian McCaffrey Stanford (68 att) *
It's worth noting that some RBs (like McCaffrey) tend to get the carries from the 19 yard line but not the carries from the 2 yard line, which hurts their TD rate (but it's also a bad sign that their teams prefer another RB for those goalline carries).
Third,
traffic capped yards after contact based on
my charting. A play gets counted as being in space if the RB's first encounter with a defender happens involves just one defender and the RB had some room to maneuver; otherwise it is counted as being in traffic (even if it involves facing two safeties 12 yards downfield). Each play is capped to be between 0 and 8 yards. I only have data for 19 of these RBs, and for some it's a tiny sample size.
Traffic Capped Yards After Contact
3.28 Nick Chubb Georgia (50 att) *
3.02 Alex Collins Arkansas (65 att)
2.96 Shock Linwood Baylor (28 att)
2.86 Ezekiel Elliott Ohio State (94 att)
2.73 Paul Perkins UCLA (26 att)
2.68 Jordan Howard Indiana/UAB (41 att)
2.67 DeAndre Washington Texas Tech (15 att)
2.65 Derrick Henry Alabama (95 att)
2.59 Leonard Fournette LSU (49 att) *
2.50 Devontae Booker Utah (92 att)
2.41 Kareem Hunt Toledo (49 att)
2.28 Kenneth Dixon La Tech (69 att)
2.23 C.J. Prosise Notre Dame (60 att)
2.17 Jonathan Williams Arkansas (47 att)
2.00 Elijah McGuire La-Lafytte (3 att)
1.85 Matt Breida Ga South (20 att)
1.63 Wendell Smallwood WVU (8 att)
1.44 Aaron Green TCU (27 att)
1.42 Dalvin Cook FSU (12 att) *
Ezekiel Elliott stands out as someone who is consistently near the top in these three stats, with a large number of attempts. Perine is up there on the first 2 lists, but I haven't charted his yards after contact yet. Relatively good numbers for Linwood, Collins, and Perkins (though my sense watching Linwood is that he faced more easy plays). Derrick Henry tends to be near the middle or slightly above. Aaron Green, Wendell Smallwood, and Dalvin Cook stand out as repeatedly appearing near the bottom (though sometimes with a small sample size) - that may be a worrying sign about a hole in Cook's game. Prosise is also in the bottom half of each list, despite his size.