ZWK
Footballguy
Edit: Much of the content of this thread is based on my player stats spreadsheets for WR, RB, RB elusiveness, QB, TE, and pass rushers. Also: birthdates and VBD by draft pick (for generic rookie rankings).
This thread is for my analysis of the 2016 draft class. Previously: my thread on the 2015 draft class, my analysis of the 2014 draft class.
I look at college production, size, athleticism, and other indicators to try to identify the college players that are most likely to be successful in the NFL (with a focus on RBs & WRs).
Let's start with WRs.
I've just set up my WR production spreadsheet so that it should update automatically during the season. It includes data on yards per target, market share of team's passing TDs, number of 25+ yard receptions, and a bunch of other stats which I've also combined into a single production score. It's color-coded so that you can see strengths and weaknesses at a glance. (Though as you can see, there are still a few things missing from it.)
Most of the numbers come from cfbstats, and target data comes from NCAAsavant.
Here's the leaderboard, with a few select stats:
So far this year, Josh Doctson, Roger Lewis, and JuJu Smith-Schuster lead the way with the most impressive across-the-board production, including over 3 yards per team passing attempt, over 12 yards per target, and over 1 TD per game.
Leonte Carroo would be up there with them if he'd played enough to qualify (only the top 100 players in total receiving yards are included). Carroo was already one of the top WR prospects in college football last offseason, according to my numbers (Rashard Higgins & Corey Coleman were also up there).
Other standout players so far this year include Corey Coleman (who is averaging 4.35 yards every time that Baylor attempts a pass), Carlos Harris (who has scored half of North Texas's offensive touchdowns), and Shelton Gibson (who has gained nearly twice as many yards per target as the West Virginia offense has when throwing to someone else).
Coleman, Harris, and Wyoming's Tanner Gentry are held back in my production rankings by the extremely soft schedules that they've faced. Without the strength-of-schedule adjustment Coleman would actually be sitting at #1.
Farther down the rankings: Mississippi averages fewer yards per attempt when they are throwing to Laquon Treadwell than when they are throwing elsewhere. Treadwell shares this honor with Demarcus Robinson at Florida, Corey Davis at Western Michigan, Tyler Boyd at Pittsburgh, Kenny Lawler at Cal, and Keevan Lucas at Tulsa.
I haven't run my overall ratings formula yet (which includes size, speed, age, and previous years' stats), but right now I'm guessing that it would pick out a clear top 4 of Doctson, Lewis, Smith-Schuster, and Carroo (in some order).
This thread is for my analysis of the 2016 draft class. Previously: my thread on the 2015 draft class, my analysis of the 2014 draft class.
I look at college production, size, athleticism, and other indicators to try to identify the college players that are most likely to be successful in the NFL (with a focus on RBs & WRs).
Let's start with WRs.
I've just set up my WR production spreadsheet so that it should update automatically during the season. It includes data on yards per target, market share of team's passing TDs, number of 25+ yard receptions, and a bunch of other stats which I've also combined into a single production score. It's color-coded so that you can see strengths and weaknesses at a glance. (Though as you can see, there are still a few things missing from it.)
Most of the numbers come from cfbstats, and target data comes from NCAAsavant.
Here's the leaderboard, with a few select stats:
Code:
Player Yd/g Yd/TmAtt Yd/Tg %TmRTD 25+/g
Josh Doctson 146.2 3.76 12.78 43% 2.0
Roger Lewis 150.3 3.18 12.17 37% 1.5
JuJu Smith-Schuster 123.8 3.77 13.57 40% 1.4
Daniel Braverman 131.6 3.78 9.29 50% 1.0
Shelton Gibson 89.6 2.73 12.90 45% 1.4
Taywan Taylor 115.2 2.98 14.02 38% 1.7
Dezmon Epps 132.0 2.58 8.80 40% 1.0
Will Fuller 95.2 3.23 11.15 58% 1.5
Carlos Harris 93.8 2.54 8.38 80% 0.6
Christian Kirk 103.8 3.07 10.59 29% 1.8
Corey Coleman 135.6 4.35 13.46 50% 2.0
Leonte Carroo would be up there with them if he'd played enough to qualify (only the top 100 players in total receiving yards are included). Carroo was already one of the top WR prospects in college football last offseason, according to my numbers (Rashard Higgins & Corey Coleman were also up there).
Other standout players so far this year include Corey Coleman (who is averaging 4.35 yards every time that Baylor attempts a pass), Carlos Harris (who has scored half of North Texas's offensive touchdowns), and Shelton Gibson (who has gained nearly twice as many yards per target as the West Virginia offense has when throwing to someone else).
Coleman, Harris, and Wyoming's Tanner Gentry are held back in my production rankings by the extremely soft schedules that they've faced. Without the strength-of-schedule adjustment Coleman would actually be sitting at #1.
Farther down the rankings: Mississippi averages fewer yards per attempt when they are throwing to Laquon Treadwell than when they are throwing elsewhere. Treadwell shares this honor with Demarcus Robinson at Florida, Corey Davis at Western Michigan, Tyler Boyd at Pittsburgh, Kenny Lawler at Cal, and Keevan Lucas at Tulsa.
I haven't run my overall ratings formula yet (which includes size, speed, age, and previous years' stats), but right now I'm guessing that it would pick out a clear top 4 of Doctson, Lewis, Smith-Schuster, and Carroo (in some order).
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