bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Surprised he didnt announce his intentions yet
Maybe he's still recovering from his injury, but he sure doesn't look quite that good to me. I'd have him a step below both Cooper and Watkins. I think both Cooper and Watkins were better route runners and better able to separate, and I think both might have better hands as well. I am very curious how he measures.People hung up on his "production" are overthinking it. He's every bit as good as Amari Cooper.
Can you expand on what makes you think this?People hung up on his "production" are overthinking it. He's every bit as good as Amari Cooper.
He has the ability to win in all parts of the field.Can you expand on what makes you think this?People hung up on his "production" are overthinking it. He's every bit as good as Amari Cooper.
Don't overthink it - he should go 1.1.The posts in this thread range from similar to Dez Bryant to a tier 2-3 player, a notch below Cooper and Watkins. So what is each side seeing that makes them so sure? People sitting with the 1.1 and 1.2 need to not miss on that pick...
How did you come to decide he should go 1.1?Don't overthink it - he should go 1.1.The posts in this thread range from similar to Dez Bryant to a tier 2-3 player, a notch below Cooper and Watkins. So what is each side seeing that makes them so sure? People sitting with the 1.1 and 1.2 need to not miss on that pick...
Interesting.He has the ability to win in all parts of the field. A lot of the narratives on him sound like Allen Robinson, especially the speed part. Let's not forget, Robinson ran a 4.6 at the NFL Combine.Can you expand on what makes you think this?People hung up on his "production" are overthinking it. He's every bit as good as Amari Cooper.
Mississippi junior Laquon Treadwell (6-2, 210) appears to be the best of what projects as an average corps of wide receivers.
"I don't think there's a receiver this year that is that (top-15 pick)," said one scout. "Not a great group. It's a similar situation to last year. I don't believe there's that dynamic speed guy like a Phillip Dorsett, which got him in the first round last year."
Treadwell bounced back from a horrific leg injury early in the 2014 season to catch 76 passes for 1,082 yards (14.2) and eight touchdowns.
"DeVante Parker last year was a very similar player," said one scout. "Good route runner. Good body control. Good feel for the game. Real strong hands. But I don't think he'll run real well at all."
I haven't seen much of him yet, but Parker seems like a horrible comp.Early look at the NFL draft
Excerpt:
Mississippi junior Laquon Treadwell (6-2, 210) appears to be the best of what projects as an average corps of wide receivers.
"I don't think there's a receiver this year that is that (top-15 pick)," said one scout. "Not a great group. It's a similar situation to last year. I don't believe there's that dynamic speed guy like a Phillip Dorsett, which got him in the first round last year."
Treadwell bounced back from a horrific leg injury early in the 2014 season to catch 76 passes for 1,082 yards (14.2) and eight touchdowns.
"DeVante Parker last year was a very similar player," said one scout. "Good route runner. Good body control. Good feel for the game. Real strong hands. But I don't think he'll run real well at all."
Most people from the dynasty rookie draft threads disagree with thatcstu said:Don't overthink it - he should go 1.1.Gandalf said:The posts in this thread range from similar to Dez Bryant to a tier 2-3 player, a notch below Cooper and Watkins. So what is each side seeing that makes them so sure? People sitting with the 1.1 and 1.2 need to not miss on that pick...
Look at the history and you'll see you see that taking a 1st round WR over RB is usually the right pick. The times where it wasn't were Tavon Austin, DHB, and Santonio Holmes. Have to go back to 2001 for a RB that should have been picked over a WR.Most people from the dynasty rookie draft threads disagree with thatcstu said:Don't overthink it - he should go 1.1.Gandalf said:The posts in this thread range from similar to Dez Bryant to a tier 2-3 player, a notch below Cooper and Watkins. So what is each side seeing that makes them so sure? People sitting with the 1.1 and 1.2 need to not miss on that pick...
Yeah, Gurley doesn't count.....Look at the history and you'll see you see that taking a 1st round WR over RB is usually the right pick. The times where it wasn't were Tavon Austin, DHB, and Santonio Holmes. Have to go back to 2001 for a RB that should have been picked over a WR.Most people from the dynasty rookie draft threads disagree with thatcstu said:Don't overthink it - he should go 1.1.Gandalf said:The posts in this thread range from similar to Dez Bryant to a tier 2-3 player, a notch below Cooper and Watkins. So what is each side seeing that makes them so sure? People sitting with the 1.1 and 1.2 need to not miss on that pick...
Would rather have Cooper.Yeah, Gurley doesn't count.....Look at the history and you'll see you see that taking a 1st round WR over RB is usually the right pick. The times where it wasn't were Tavon Austin, DHB, and Santonio Holmes. Have to go back to 2001 for a RB that should have been picked over a WR.Most people from the dynasty rookie draft threads disagree with thatcstu said:Don't overthink it - he should go 1.1.Gandalf said:The posts in this thread range from similar to Dez Bryant to a tier 2-3 player, a notch below Cooper and Watkins. So what is each side seeing that makes them so sure? People sitting with the 1.1 and 1.2 need to not miss on that pick...
I think this sums up your WR bias well. You might be right, of course, but - like 9/10 people - I would take Gurley over Cooper, who probably won't even crack the top-10 dynasty ADP this offseason.Would rather have Cooper.Yeah, Gurley doesn't count.....Look at the history and you'll see you see that taking a 1st round WR over RB is usually the right pick. The times where it wasn't were Tavon Austin, DHB, and Santonio Holmes. Have to go back to 2001 for a RB that should have been picked over a WR.Most people from the dynasty rookie draft threads disagree with thatcstu said:Don't overthink it - he should go 1.1.Gandalf said:The posts in this thread range from similar to Dez Bryant to a tier 2-3 player, a notch below Cooper and Watkins. So what is each side seeing that makes them so sure? People sitting with the 1.1 and 1.2 need to not miss on that pick...
6 out of 7 people at DLF agree with me.I think this sums up your WR bias well. You might be right, of course, but - like 9/10 people - I would take Gurley over Cooper, who probably won't even crack the top-10 dynasty ADP this offseason.Would rather have Cooper.
Anyway, back to thread topic. I like Laquon a lot and think he would settle as a top-15 WR eventually - maybe even higher if he lives up to his measurables and shows reliable full-tree route running. Surely, the top potential is there. That said, with the glut of WRs posting solid PPR numbers and the explosion of RBBCs, I'd much rather have the RB with the 3-down skillset.
I would take Gurley over Cooper in a heartbeat, not because I think Gurley is "better" than Cooper or will have a longer career, but because of the scarcity of stud RBs in the league these days vs. the depth at WR. The RB position has very few guys you can trot out on a weekly basis and feel like you've got an advantage against your opponent - WRs run way deeper and I'd rather have a Gurley/Maclin type matchup than a Gio/Julio. Just my .02, but if I have the #1 pick and there's a blue chip RB, I'll take him over the WR in the current climate.Good point. DLF is well-known for its WR bias, but nonetheless this clearly demonstrates enough people would take Cooper over Gurley.
I'm one of the people who is hung up on his lack of production. Top NFL WRs usually put up much better numbers in college than what Treadwell has done. If Treadwell is an elite receiver, then it's weird that he hasn't done that. Chad Kelly isn't a terrible QB, so he doesn't have that excuse. Treadwell is fairly young, which is some excuse, but a lot of other top NFL WRs left school early too and Treadwell's production doesn't match theirs. Maybe he was slowed by recovering from his injury? In which case we're all trying to project what a healthy Treadwell would do, rather than describing what he did on the field this past season (or we're basing our opinions on a few games when he was healthy).People hung up on his "production" are overthinking it. He's every bit as good as Amari Cooper.
So the numbers put Treadwell in the same range as Antonio Brown and Randall Cobb? Maybe this is not the most reliable indicator of success in the NFL for a WR?I'm one of the people who is hung up on his lack of production. Top NFL WRs usually put up much better numbers in college than what Treadwell has done. If Treadwell is an elite receiver, then it's weird that he hasn't done that. Chad Kelly isn't a terrible QB, so he doesn't have that excuse. Treadwell is fairly young, which is some excuse, but a lot of other top NFL WRs left school early too and Treadwell's production doesn't match theirs. Maybe he was slowed by recovering from his injury? In which case we're all trying to project what a healthy Treadwell would do, rather than describing what he did on the field this past season (or we're basing our opinions on a few games when he was healthy).People hung up on his "production" are overthinking it. He's every bit as good as Amari Cooper.
To give one example, Treadwell averaged 8.4 yards per target this year. He also averaged 8.4 yards per target last year. The average across FBS college football, for a player who is his team's top receiver, is about 9.4 YPT.
I made a list of the 33 "best" fantasy WRs who entered the NFL since 2009 (and who played WR at a FBS school), including everyone with 100 career VBD plus guys who seem likely to get there based on what they've done so far plus a couple who probably would have gotten there if not for injuries or off-the-field issues. Here is how many YPT each of them averaged in their best college season:
YPT Player School
14.7 T.Y. Hilton FIU
14.1 Mike Evans Texas A&M
14.0 Demaryius Thomas Ga Tech
12.8 Odell Beckham Jr. LSU
12.7 Martavis Bryant Clemson
12.0 Justin Blackmon Okla St
11.8 Dez Bryant Okla St
11.6 Hakeem Nicks N Carolina
11.6 Kelvin Benjamin FSU
11.5 Alshon Jeffery S Carolina
11.5 Jarvis Landry LSU
11.2 Sammy Watkins Clemson
11.2 Golden Tate Notre Dame
11.2 Allen Hurns Miami (Fl)
11.0 DeAndre Hopkins Clemson
10.8 Amari Cooper Alabama
10.7 Michael Crabtree Texas Tech
10.5 Julio Jones Alabama
10.3 Brandin Cooks Oregon St
10.2 Mike Wallace Miss
10.2 Percy Harvin Florida
10.2 Josh Gordon Baylor
10.2 Doug Baldwin Stanford
10.1 A.J. Green Georgia
10.1 Kenny Britt Rutgers
10.0 Eric Decker Minnesota
9.6 Allen Robinson Penn State
9.4 Jeremy Maclin Missouri
9.4 Emmanuel Sanders SMU
9.4 Jordan Matthews Vanderbilt
9.1 Keenan Allen California
8.4 Antonio Brown C Mich8.4 Laquon Treadwell Miss
8.4 Randall Cobb Kentucky
And here is a complete list of first round receivers since the 2009 draft who never topped 10.0 YPT in college:
YPT Player School
8.0 Michael Floyd Notre Dame
8.0 Darrius Heyward-Bey Maryland
9.0 A.J. Jenkins Illinois
9.2 Kevin White WVU
9.3 Cordarrelle Patterson Tennessee
9.4 Jeremy Maclin Missouri
9.6 Tavon Austin WVU
I have more stats in this spreadsheet (and discuss them more in this thread). Treadwell isn't always this far down the list in these sorts of comparisons, but he generally is pretty far down the list.
I think the Bucs have to take a hard look at himnif he is there. Especially if the don't cut & resign / restructure V-Jax. Imagine Evans, Treadwell, and Winston for 3+ years. :drool:He reminds me of a young Keyshawn
I still like Kenny Bell, a/k/a Afro Thunder, there in TBB too.I think the Bucs have to take a hard look at himnif he is there. Especially if the don't cut & resign / restructure V-Jax. Imagine Evans, Treadwell, and Winston for 3+ years. :drool:He reminds me of a young Keyshawn
I really think they will. Very enticing. With Doug and sims and ASJ (if he ever plays)I think the Bucs have to take a hard look at himnif he is there. Especially if the don't cut & resign / restructure V-Jax. Imagine Evans, Treadwell, and Winston for 3+ years. :drool:He reminds me of a young Keyshawn
Yep. And Deonte Thompson's career arc so far is similar to Jimmy Smith's.Gandalf said:So the numbers put Treadwell in the same range as Antonio Brown and Randall Cobb? Maybe this is not the most reliable indicator of success in the NFL for a WR?ZWK said:I'm one of the people who is hung up on his lack of production. Top NFL WRs usually put up much better numbers in college than what Treadwell has done. If Treadwell is an elite receiver, then it's weird that he hasn't done that. Chad Kelly isn't a terrible QB, so he doesn't have that excuse. Treadwell is fairly young, which is some excuse, but a lot of other top NFL WRs left school early too and Treadwell's production doesn't match theirs. Maybe he was slowed by recovering from his injury? In which case we're all trying to project what a healthy Treadwell would do, rather than describing what he did on the field this past season (or we're basing our opinions on a few games when he was healthy).People hung up on his "production" are overthinking it. He's every bit as good as Amari Cooper.
To give one example, Treadwell averaged 8.4 yards per target this year. He also averaged 8.4 yards per target last year. The average across FBS college football, for a player who is his team's top receiver, is about 9.4 YPT.
I made a list of the 33 "best" fantasy WRs who entered the NFL since 2009 (and who played WR at a FBS school), including everyone with 100 career VBD plus guys who seem likely to get there based on what they've done so far plus a couple who probably would have gotten there if not for injuries or off-the-field issues. Here is how many YPT each of them averaged in their best college season:
YPT Player School
14.7 T.Y. Hilton FIU
14.1 Mike Evans Texas A&M
14.0 Demaryius Thomas Ga Tech
12.8 Odell Beckham Jr. LSU
12.7 Martavis Bryant Clemson
12.0 Justin Blackmon Okla St
11.8 Dez Bryant Okla St
11.6 Hakeem Nicks N Carolina
11.6 Kelvin Benjamin FSU
11.5 Alshon Jeffery S Carolina
11.5 Jarvis Landry LSU
11.2 Sammy Watkins Clemson
11.2 Golden Tate Notre Dame
11.2 Allen Hurns Miami (Fl)
11.0 DeAndre Hopkins Clemson
10.8 Amari Cooper Alabama
10.7 Michael Crabtree Texas Tech
10.5 Julio Jones Alabama
10.3 Brandin Cooks Oregon St
10.2 Mike Wallace Miss
10.2 Percy Harvin Florida
10.2 Josh Gordon Baylor
10.2 Doug Baldwin Stanford
10.1 A.J. Green Georgia
10.1 Kenny Britt Rutgers
10.0 Eric Decker Minnesota
9.6 Allen Robinson Penn State
9.4 Jeremy Maclin Missouri
9.4 Emmanuel Sanders SMU
9.4 Jordan Matthews Vanderbilt
9.1 Keenan Allen California
8.4 Antonio Brown C Mich8.4 Laquon Treadwell Miss
8.4 Randall Cobb Kentucky
And here is a complete list of first round receivers since the 2009 draft who never topped 10.0 YPT in college:
YPT Player School
8.0 Michael Floyd Notre Dame
8.0 Darrius Heyward-Bey Maryland
9.0 A.J. Jenkins Illinois
9.2 Kevin White WVU
9.3 Cordarrelle Patterson Tennessee
9.4 Jeremy Maclin Missouri
9.6 Tavon Austin WVU
I have more stats in this spreadsheet (and discuss them more in this thread). Treadwell isn't always this far down the list in these sorts of comparisons, but he generally is pretty far down the list.
Kyle DenHartog
Kyle DenHartog @kjdenhartog
@MattWaldman what do you think of Treadwell? Do you think he's worth a top 5-10 pick?
Matt Waldman
Matt Waldman @MattWaldman
If a team is seeking Michael Irvin w/an incindiary attitude about blocking, hell yes. http://bit.ly/1HnaDWm https://twitter.com/kjdenhartog/status/695353113981550592
Laquon Treadwell - WR - Rebels
NFL Media analysts Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks say the San Diego Chargers and Los Angeles Rams provide ideal situations for Mississippi WR Laquon Treadwell to fill into.
"Give Philip Rivers a true No. 1," Jeremiah said. "He hasn't had that there in quite some time. They need some more weapons for him there to get that offense rolling again." Brooks, on the other hands, sees a potential splash pick for the Rams in their first year in Los Angeles. "I believe the L.A. Rams would be a nice fit for him. ... Tavon Austin can do some things in the slot," he said. "You have other playmakers like Kenny Britt who can stretch the field. Laquon Treadwell can be the anchor of that passing game. He can play the 'X' (receiver), you can build it around him and allow him to be the focal point of that passing game."
Source: NFL.com
Feb 11 - 1:14 PM
NFL Media draft analyst Lance Zierlein compares Ole Miss WR Laquon Treadwell to DeAndre Hopkins.
"Hopkins is the more sudden of the two players from an athletic standpoint, but both receivers are exceptionally competitive when the ball is in the air and both players have very strong hands," Zierlein wrote. "Another similarity is that Hopkins could win vertically without great speed, and Treadwell is not expected to blaze the 40-yard dash at the combine." On that note, TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline reported recently that Treadwell's inner circle is hoping for a forty in the 4.5s at the combine.
Source: NFL.com
Feb 15 - 6:32 PM
Laquon Treadwell - WR - Rebels
In a Twitter exchange regarding the 40-time of Ole Miss WR Laquon Treadwell, CBS Sports draft analyst Dane Brugler wrote, "Don't need to be a 4.4 athlete to thrive at the WR position."
Brugler went on to point out that all-world Texans wideout DeAndre Hopkins recorded a 4.57 40-time at the NFL Scouting Combine before he was drafted in the first round of the 2013 draft. TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline has noted that the 6-foot-2, 229-pounder's crew is crossing their fingers for a time similarly within the 4.50 range. While some teams might be scared off by the "slow" speed, Rotoworld draft analyst Josh Norris pegged him to the 49er's at No. 7 in his most recent mock, writing that "much of the criticism around him is nitpicking."
Source: Dane Brugler on Twitter
Feb 15 - 11:54 PM
NFL.com's Matt Harmon believes that Ole Miss WR Laqoun Treadwell is "the No. 1 wide receiver in this year’s draft class and [in Harmon's eyes], there is no real debate to have on the subject."
Wrote Harmon, "We know that Treadwell is a maven in the contested catch game, often earning him the Alshon Jeffery comparison. Despite Jeffery’s status as one of the best receivers in the league today, that comparison doesn't do Treadwell justice." The analyst keyed in on the 6-foot-2, 229-pounder's Success Rate Vs Coverage, which worked out to 74.6% for the 2015 campaign. As Harmon notes, that's comparable with NFL greats Allen Robinson and Dez Bryant. Granted, college defenses are a step down from those in the NFL, but his mark in the category is noteworthy nonetheless. "Treadwell has no major holes in his game," Harmon concluded.
Source: Backyard Banter
Feb 15 - 10:33 PM
I think Treadwell is the most important player to get right in this draft. People seem really split on him. If you are sitting at 1.1 or 1.2 or 1.3 and you get a pedestrian WR instead of a WR2 on his way to a WR1 then it is a disaster. I wish I knew who to listen to on this...
I guess the question is: if not him then who?Gandalf said:I think Treadwell is the most important player to get right in this draft. People seem really split on him. If you are sitting at 1.1 or 1.2 or 1.3 and you get a pedestrian WR instead of a WR2 on his way to a WR1 then it is a disaster. I wish I knew who to listen to on this...
Do screens really do serious damage to the YPT stat? There are more short gains on screens but that must be at least somewhat mitigated by there being very few incompletions. If you run 10 bubble screens you may get stuffed for no gain on 3 or 4 of them, but if you run 10 medium out routes you're probably going to have an incompletion on 3 or 4 of them, which works out to the same against YPT.It's really not fair to use Yards Per Target as a comparison tool in my opinion. The system that Ole Miss uses employs a ton of bubble screens to WR's. Of course his YPT will be lower than others, its a product of the system.
Personally I see Treadwell as a Anquon Boldin type. Not the fastest WR on the board, but his physicality more than makes up for it.
Example
For me, Doctson and Elliot go 1 and 2. At 1.03, if both are gone I trade the 3rd pick (if I don't like Treadwell). I think where Treadwell goes in the NFL draft will tell us a lot.I guess the question is: if not him then who?
If you're really not sure sell the pick to a believer as there will be some in every league.
FreeBaGel, you're thinking of Yards Per Catch not Yards Per Target.
Yards per Target factor in incompletions, no? So, 10 bubble screen are going to average to 1 yard and 10 ten yard In's are going to average 10 yards (without factoring in yards after catch of course). Incompletions make no difference because it's still a target. Is this not the difference between YPC and YPT?No, I don't think he is and his point is valid.
Yards per Target factor in incompletions, no? So, 10 bubble screen are going to average to 1 yard and 10 ten yard In's are going to average 10 yards (without factoring in yards after catch of course). Incompletions make no difference because it's still a target. Is this not the difference between YPC and YPT?
Gotcha. Thanks Doc.He was responding to a poster that said Treadwell's YPT may seem lower because Ole Miss ran a bunch of bubble screens. Bagel said that while the YPC may indeed be lower on screen passes the fact that the catch % would be higher may actually help his YPT (because he'd be gaining yards on all of those catches) while in a deeper passing game his YPC would increase but his catch % would be lower (and thus his YPT would decrease with each incompletion). Now the math may not actually work out (depends on what actually happened), but the theory makes sense.