WR Keenan Allen, CHI (3 Viewers)

[TheFatKid]

So who are the WW options for us Allen owners this week?

Drake London is sitting on my wire, but it is so hard to trust Ridder. Jayden Reed vs Tampa but don’t know if Christian Watson is a go.

So I’m like probably sticking with DJ Moore from my bench, but he popped up on the injury report too.

 

[tkrull1]

I do appreciate them calling this early instead of some BS game time decision...

 

[Nick Vermeil]

So who are the WW options for us Allen owners this week?

Drake London is sitting on my wire, but it is so hard to trust Ridder. Jayden Reed vs Tampa but don’t know if Christian Watson is a go.

So I’m like probably sticking with DJ Moore from my bench, but he popped up on the injury report too.

Dang. Thielen back in. Scooped up Quentin again for deep bench.

 

[Drake Hater]

So who are the WW options for us Allen owners this week?

Drake London is sitting on my wire, but it is so hard to trust Ridder. Jayden Reed vs Tampa but don’t know if Christian Watson is a go.

So I’m like probably sticking with DJ Moore from my bench, but he popped up on the injury report too.

Dang. Thielen back in. Scooped up Quentin again for deep bench.

Check the game day weather in Charlotte before sticking with any Panthers WR.

 

[grateful zed]

i have a playoff bye this week. glad keenan is getting some rest.

hope he returns to form next week.

 

[menobrown]

People tried to speculate that Justin Jefferson might shut it down but that never made sense to me. Allen on the other hand, I'm bracing for the fact we might have seen the last of him. Hope not, but he has way more reasons to shut it down then JJ ever did.

 

[in2win]

Even with Allen coming back( if he does) he goes from a bonafide WR1 to a WR 3 IMO during the most important time of the year.

Tough luck and risky biz

 

[efactor]

Even with Allen coming back( if he does) he goes from a bonafide WR1 to a WR 3 IMO during the most important time of the year.

Tough luck and risky biz

I still think he is a #2, even with Stick at QB. Will probably get 12 plus targets since they can't run the ball and their defense is bad.

 

[efactor]

People tried to speculate that Justin Jefferson might shut it down but that never made sense to me. Allen on the other hand, I'm bracing for the fact we might have seen the last of him. Hope not, but he has way more reasons to shut it down then JJ ever did.

I don't think he shuts it down unless he just is completely unable to go. Stats are important and not like he has a lot of years left. I think he will take every opportunity to play the game while he can.

 

[menobrown]

People tried to speculate that Justin Jefferson might shut it down but that never made sense to me. Allen on the other hand, I'm bracing for the fact we might have seen the last of him. Hope not, but he has way more reasons to shut it down then JJ ever did.

I don't think he shuts it down unless he just is completely unable to go. Stats are important and not like he has a lot of years left. I think he will take every opportunity to play the game while he can.

Hope you are right but he's pretty beat up, the team is out of contention, his QB, coach and the GM who drafted and extended him are all gone and those factors combined with the fact that push likely has to come to shove with his contract this off-season as it's reached a point it most likely has to be adjusted, terminated or traded.

 

[Tau837]

People tried to speculate that Justin Jefferson might shut it down but that never made sense to me. Allen on the other hand, I'm bracing for the fact we might have seen the last of him. Hope not, but he has way more reasons to shut it down then JJ ever did.

I don't think he shuts it down unless he just is completely unable to go. Stats are important and not like he has a lot of years left. I think he will take every opportunity to play the game while he can.

Hope you are right but he's pretty beat up, the team is out of contention, his QB, coach and the GM who drafted and extended him are all gone and those factors combined with the fact that push likely has to come to shove with his contract this off-season as it's reached a point it most likely has to be adjusted, terminated or traded.

I expect Allen will be extended. And I expect him to play again as long as there is no risk of reinjury... he's a baller. I also think he probably wants to finish off this season as his career best. He has never made an official All Pro team, and he has a shot at that if he plays enough.

 

[efactor]

People tried to speculate that Justin Jefferson might shut it down but that never made sense to me. Allen on the other hand, I'm bracing for the fact we might have seen the last of him. Hope not, but he has way more reasons to shut it down then JJ ever did.

I don't think he shuts it down unless he just is completely unable to go. Stats are important and not like he has a lot of years left. I think he will take every opportunity to play the game while he can.

Hope you are right but he's pretty beat up, the team is out of contention, his QB, coach and the GM who drafted and extended him are all gone and those factors combined with the fact that push likely has to come to shove with his contract this off-season as it's reached a point it most likely has to be adjusted, terminated or traded.

Top 5 WR who has spent his entire career there. He’ll be back. They can’t waste more time with Herbert than they already have.

 

[menobrown]

People tried to speculate that Justin Jefferson might shut it down but that never made sense to me. Allen on the other hand, I'm bracing for the fact we might have seen the last of him. Hope not, but he has way more reasons to shut it down then JJ ever did.

I don't think he shuts it down unless he just is completely unable to go. Stats are important and not like he has a lot of years left. I think he will take every opportunity to play the game while he can.

Hope you are right but he's pretty beat up, the team is out of contention, his QB, coach and the GM who drafted and extended him are all gone and those factors combined with the fact that push likely has to come to shove with his contract this off-season as it's reached a point it most likely has to be adjusted, terminated or traded.

I expect Allen will be extended. And I expect him to play again as long as there is no risk of reinjury... he's a baller. I also think he probably wants to finish off this season as his career best. He has never made an official All Pro team, and he has a shot at that if he plays enough.

Thanks for your input, not as certain of it as you he'll return(this year or next) and the next year part is especially difficult for me to forecast when I don't know the new regime, though I'm thinking Herbert would have some level of input and he won't want to see him go.

 

[JohnnyU]

He is 31.

 

[grateful zed]

well he play this week?

 

[grateful zed]

Keenan Allen injury update, Week 16 fantasy outlook​

After logging three DNPs during the practice week, Allen (heel) didn't play in the Chargers' brutal 63-21 road loss to the Raiders in Week 15. Allen owners shouldn't be too hopeful for his chances of suiting up in Week 16 considering the Chargers are out of the playoff picture. There's little incentive to rush Allen back, especially with QB Justin Herbert (finger) out for the season.

Should Allen miss his second straight contest, look for pass-catchers Josh Palmer, Quentin Johnston, and Gerald Everett to see the majority of the receiving work from backup Easton Stick. Palmer is the only one with starting appeal in 12-team leagues, however.

 

[grateful zed]

(Rotowire) Allen (heel) officially didn't practice Tuesday. Analysis: After Allen was seen working on the side with a team trainer earlier Tuesday, per Kris Rhim of ESPN.com, the wide receiver's eventual listing on the Chargers' first Week 16 injury report was of great interest. However, Allen maintained his lack of activity from last week, giving him just two more chances to mix into drills ahead of Saturday's game against the Bills.

 

[grateful zed]

he is not listed in anyone's ff wr rankings this week.

 

[Gr00vus]

They should put him in bubble wrap until next season. I realize he has a record or two to possibly set, but they need this guy available next year.

 

[grateful zed]

Receiving

SEASON	TEAM
2013	SD
2014	SD
2015	SD
2016	SD
2017	LAC
2018	LAC
2019	LAC
2020	LAC
2021	LAC
2022	LAC
2023	LAC
Career

GP	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LNG	FD	FUM	LST
15	71	105	1,046	14.7	8	43	54	1	1
14	77	121	783	10.2	4	35	41	1	1
8	67	89	725	10.8	4	38	34	0	0
1	6	7	63	10.5	0	15	5	0	0
16	102	159	1,393	13.7	6	51	74	1	0
16	97	136	1,196	12.3	6	54	62	1	1
16	104	149	1,199	11.5	6	45	63	0	0
14	100	147	992	9.9	8	28	61	3	2
16	106	157	1,138	10.7	6	42	66	1	0
10	66	89	752	11.4	4	46	39	1	1
13	108	150	1,243	11.5	7	42	56	2	1
139	904	1309	10,530	11.6	59	54	555	11	7

 

[grateful zed]

hof?

 

[Willy]

Must be tough for WRs to make the HOF. Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Torry Holt and Steve Smith aren't in there and they have a lot better career numbers.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

hof?

Average HoF WR posts 650 for 11,500 yards and 90TDs. I think he has a ways to go to get into that conversation.

 

[FarFromHome]

hof?

Nope. Luv the dude, but has he been been the best at his position for a year?

 

[JohnnyU]

hof?

HOG (Hall of Good).

 

[Tau837]

HOF seems unlikely at this point, but he's not done. Consider how he compares to Fitzgerald through their first 11 seasons:

Allen - 139 games, 1309 targets, 904 receptions (69.1% CP, 6.5 RPG), 10530 receiving yards (11.6 YPR, 8.0 YPT, 75.8 YPG), 59 TD, 557 1D
Fitz - 170 games, 1568 targets, 909 receptions (57.3% CP, 5.3 RPG), 12151 receiving yards (13.4 YPR, 7.7 YPT, 71.5 YPG), 89 TD, 612 1D

I suspect that is closer than most would expect. Obviously, Allen missing 36 career games due to injuries really hurts his chances. Particularly since 23 of those missed games were in his age 23 and 24 seasons. Had he avoided at least some of those injuries, he would probably be on a HOF pace right now.

As it is, he has not showed any signs of slowing down. Even if he doesn't play another down this season, this is arguably his career best season, and he was one of the top WRs in the league after he got past his hamstring injury last season. He hasn't lost anything, just needs to stay on the field.

 

[Ilov80s]

Must be tough for WRs to make the HOF. Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Torry Holt and Steve Smith aren't in there and they have a lot better career numbers.

I don’t know the numbers off the top of my head but Holt strikes me as the next man up imo and deserving of the HOF. I do think for a few years he was too 3 at his position.

 

[Cheen]

People tried to speculate that Justin Jefferson might shut it down but that never made sense to me. Allen on the other hand, I'm bracing for the fact we might have seen the last of him. Hope not, but he has way more reasons to shut it down then JJ ever did.

I don't think he shuts it down unless he just is completely unable to go. Stats are important and not like he has a lot of years left. I think he will take every opportunity to play the game while he can.

Hope you are right but he's pretty beat up, the team is out of contention, his QB, coach and the GM who drafted and extended him are all gone and those factors combined with the fact that push likely has to come to shove with his contract this off-season as it's reached a point it most likely has to be adjusted, terminated or traded.

I expect Allen will be extended. And I expect him to play again as long as there is no risk of reinjury... he's a baller. I also think he probably wants to finish off this season as his career best. He has never made an official All Pro team, and he has a shot at that if he plays enough.

Thanks for your input, not as certain of it as you he'll return(this year or next) and the next year part is especially difficult for me to forecast when I don't know the new regime, though I'm thinking Herbert would have some level of input and he won't want to see him go.

Keeping in mind we don't know the new regime, do you think the greater likelihood is they let both Allen and Big Mike go vs keeping either one? I'd guess they keep at least one, and if that's the case it almost has to be Allen, right?

From what I've heard recently next year they have 4 30+ million dollar cap hits, Mack and Bosa are 35+, Keenan around 32 and Mike around 34. They can save 20 mill by cutting Mike, not sure about Keenan.

Even at 32 mill I think Keenan is worth it to that team with a stud QB and lack of skill position players.

 

[menobrown]

People tried to speculate that Justin Jefferson might shut it down but that never made sense to me. Allen on the other hand, I'm bracing for the fact we might have seen the last of him. Hope not, but he has way more reasons to shut it down then JJ ever did.

I don't think he shuts it down unless he just is completely unable to go. Stats are important and not like he has a lot of years left. I think he will take every opportunity to play the game while he can.

Hope you are right but he's pretty beat up, the team is out of contention, his QB, coach and the GM who drafted and extended him are all gone and those factors combined with the fact that push likely has to come to shove with his contract this off-season as it's reached a point it most likely has to be adjusted, terminated or traded.

I expect Allen will be extended. And I expect him to play again as long as there is no risk of reinjury... he's a baller. I also think he probably wants to finish off this season as his career best. He has never made an official All Pro team, and he has a shot at that if he plays enough.

Thanks for your input, not as certain of it as you he'll return(this year or next) and the next year part is especially difficult for me to forecast when I don't know the new regime, though I'm thinking Herbert would have some level of input and he won't want to see him go.

Keeping in mind we don't know the new regime, do you think the greater likelihood is they let both Allen and Big Mike go vs keeping either one? I'd guess they keep at least one, and if that's the case it almost has to be Allen, right?

From what I've heard recently next year they have 4 30+ million dollar cap hits, Mack and Bosa are 35+, Keenan around 32 and Mike around 34. They can save 20 mill by cutting Mike, not sure about Keenan.

Even at 32 mill I think Keenan is worth it to that team with a stud QB and lack of skill position players.

As you alluded to we don't know the regime so kind of grasping at straws.

Also I'm not sure how it works if they decide they'd prefer to cut Mike Williams and he can't pass a physical.

One thing we know for sure is both are in their last year of their deals, their combined cap hits next season are $67M and I don't think they will be viewed as attractive extension candidates due to health and age.

They'd need the players consent but they could add voidable years to the deal instead of an extension and defray some cap costs. But two things on that. If the new regime feels they have patience from ownership they might prefer to bite the bullet this year instead of paying out over time. The player consent could be a real issue as well since they will be 30/32 and I'd imagine both of them would prefer and an extension, security, instead of facing hitting FA as 31 and 33 year old players.

They'd create $23M by cutting/trading Keenan.

Only thing I would take a different opinion of you is that Allen is worth $32M. I think if he was a FA he might land something in the $18m a year range, maybe, depends on years but that seems close to the high mark keeping in mind the highest cap hit this year for a WR this year is Tyreek around $23M and $18m would put you in the top 5. That's cap hit but if you look at the top paid WR's and just look at the real first 3 years of their contracts Tyreek's at $24m, Davante around $22m.

Allen's very good of course at what he does, elite, but the NFL has traditionally not put as high a value on possession WR's, especially older ones, as they do WR's that can stress the defense more or tilt the field.


My best guess right now is it's more likely they let both go then retain both but they'll find a way to keep one of them. I feel like the least likely outcome is they keep both. The tricky part to me is which one do they keep if they are keeping just one, again with the complication of their abilty to cut or trade Mike if the can't pass a physical.

 

[nittanylion]

he is not listed in anyone's ff wr rankings this week.

Nathan Jahnke, who's considered one of the most accurate rankers in the FF Industry, released his 1st edition of Week 16 Rankings, early this AM.

75 ranked WR's:

WR10 Keenan Allen (DNP)
WR54 Joshua Palmer

No other Chargers WR's listed. HTH.

 

[SoBeDad]

My best guess right now is it's more likely they let both go then retain both but they'll find a way to keep one of them. I feel like the least likely outcome is they keep both. The tricky part to me is which one do they keep if they are keeping just one, again with the complication of their abilty to cut or trade Mike if the can't pass a physical.

Stroud had a great year with a good rookie, Dell, and emergent 2nd year player in Collins. Plus some vets like Schultz, Brown, and Woods. Draft Odunze and hope Johnston emerges, plus Palmer, another vet, and get the best available UFA TE, Schultz or Henry, and Herbert will be set.

 

[grateful zed]

im assuming he is not playing.

flexing Devin Singletary for him.

doubs and olave (likely not playing) are my other options.

 

[Tau837]

People tried to speculate that Justin Jefferson might shut it down but that never made sense to me. Allen on the other hand, I'm bracing for the fact we might have seen the last of him. Hope not, but he has way more reasons to shut it down then JJ ever did.

I don't think he shuts it down unless he just is completely unable to go. Stats are important and not like he has a lot of years left. I think he will take every opportunity to play the game while he can.

Hope you are right but he's pretty beat up, the team is out of contention, his QB, coach and the GM who drafted and extended him are all gone and those factors combined with the fact that push likely has to come to shove with his contract this off-season as it's reached a point it most likely has to be adjusted, terminated or traded.

I expect Allen will be extended. And I expect him to play again as long as there is no risk of reinjury... he's a baller. I also think he probably wants to finish off this season as his career best. He has never made an official All Pro team, and he has a shot at that if he plays enough.

Thanks for your input, not as certain of it as you he'll return(this year or next) and the next year part is especially difficult for me to forecast when I don't know the new regime, though I'm thinking Herbert would have some level of input and he won't want to see him go.

Keeping in mind we don't know the new regime, do you think the greater likelihood is they let both Allen and Big Mike go vs keeping either one? I'd guess they keep at least one, and if that's the case it almost has to be Allen, right?

From what I've heard recently next year they have 4 30+ million dollar cap hits, Mack and Bosa are 35+, Keenan around 32 and Mike around 34. They can save 20 mill by cutting Mike, not sure about Keenan.

Even at 32 mill I think Keenan is worth it to that team with a stud QB and lack of skill position players.

As you alluded to we don't know the regime so kind of grasping at straws.

Also I'm not sure how it works if they decide they'd prefer to cut Mike Williams and he can't pass a physical.

One thing we know for sure is both are in their last year of their deals, their combined cap hits next season are $67M and I don't think they will be viewed as attractive extension candidates due to health and age.

They'd need the players consent but they could add voidable years to the deal instead of an extension and defray some cap costs. But two things on that. If the new regime feels they have patience from ownership they might prefer to bite the bullet this year instead of paying out over time. The player consent could be a real issue as well since they will be 30/32 and I'd imagine both of them would prefer and an extension, security, instead of facing hitting FA as 31 and 33 year old players.

They'd create $23M by cutting/trading Keenan.

Only thing I would take a different opinion of you is that Allen is worth $32M. I think if he was a FA he might land something in the $18m a year range, maybe, depends on years but that seems close to the high mark keeping in mind the highest cap hit this year for a WR this year is Tyreek around $23M and $18m would put you in the top 5. That's cap hit but if you look at the top paid WR's and just look at the real first 3 years of their contracts Tyreek's at $24m, Davante around $22m.

Allen's very good of course at what he does, elite, but the NFL has traditionally not put as high a value on possession WR's, especially older ones, as they do WR's that can stress the defense more or tilt the field.


My best guess right now is it's more likely they let both go then retain both but they'll find a way to keep one of them. I feel like the least likely outcome is they keep both. The tricky part to me is which one do they keep if they are keeping just one, again with the complication of their abilty to cut or trade Mike if the can't pass a physical.

Agree the new 'regime' matters here, and adds uncertainty for now.

I think it is most likely they keep Allen and release Williams. I say release Williams because I don't think they will be able to trade him until he can pass a physical, which might take well beyond the start of the new league year.

In keeping Allen, I think it is more likely that the team will extend his contract than just have him play out his final year at his current cap hit, but I think both are possible.

 

[menobrown]

People tried to speculate that Justin Jefferson might shut it down but that never made sense to me. Allen on the other hand, I'm bracing for the fact we might have seen the last of him. Hope not, but he has way more reasons to shut it down then JJ ever did.

I don't think he shuts it down unless he just is completely unable to go. Stats are important and not like he has a lot of years left. I think he will take every opportunity to play the game while he can.

Hope you are right but he's pretty beat up, the team is out of contention, his QB, coach and the GM who drafted and extended him are all gone and those factors combined with the fact that push likely has to come to shove with his contract this off-season as it's reached a point it most likely has to be adjusted, terminated or traded.

I expect Allen will be extended. And I expect him to play again as long as there is no risk of reinjury... he's a baller. I also think he probably wants to finish off this season as his career best. He has never made an official All Pro team, and he has a shot at that if he plays enough.

Thanks for your input, not as certain of it as you he'll return(this year or next) and the next year part is especially difficult for me to forecast when I don't know the new regime, though I'm thinking Herbert would have some level of input and he won't want to see him go.

Keeping in mind we don't know the new regime, do you think the greater likelihood is they let both Allen and Big Mike go vs keeping either one? I'd guess they keep at least one, and if that's the case it almost has to be Allen, right?

From what I've heard recently next year they have 4 30+ million dollar cap hits, Mack and Bosa are 35+, Keenan around 32 and Mike around 34. They can save 20 mill by cutting Mike, not sure about Keenan.

Even at 32 mill I think Keenan is worth it to that team with a stud QB and lack of skill position players.

As you alluded to we don't know the regime so kind of grasping at straws.

Also I'm not sure how it works if they decide they'd prefer to cut Mike Williams and he can't pass a physical.

One thing we know for sure is both are in their last year of their deals, their combined cap hits next season are $67M and I don't think they will be viewed as attractive extension candidates due to health and age.

They'd need the players consent but they could add voidable years to the deal instead of an extension and defray some cap costs. But two things on that. If the new regime feels they have patience from ownership they might prefer to bite the bullet this year instead of paying out over time. The player consent could be a real issue as well since they will be 30/32 and I'd imagine both of them would prefer and an extension, security, instead of facing hitting FA as 31 and 33 year old players.

They'd create $23M by cutting/trading Keenan.

Only thing I would take a different opinion of you is that Allen is worth $32M. I think if he was a FA he might land something in the $18m a year range, maybe, depends on years but that seems close to the high mark keeping in mind the highest cap hit this year for a WR this year is Tyreek around $23M and $18m would put you in the top 5. That's cap hit but if you look at the top paid WR's and just look at the real first 3 years of their contracts Tyreek's at $24m, Davante around $22m.

Allen's very good of course at what he does, elite, but the NFL has traditionally not put as high a value on possession WR's, especially older ones, as they do WR's that can stress the defense more or tilt the field.


My best guess right now is it's more likely they let both go then retain both but they'll find a way to keep one of them. I feel like the least likely outcome is they keep both. The tricky part to me is which one do they keep if they are keeping just one, again with the complication of their abilty to cut or trade Mike if the can't pass a physical.

Agree the new 'regime' matters here, and adds uncertainty for now.

I think it is most likely they keep Allen and release Williams. I say release Williams because I don't think they will be able to trade him until he can pass a physical, which might take well beyond the start of the new league year.

In keeping Allen, I think it is more likely that the team will extend his contract than just have him play out his final year at his current cap hit, but I think both are possible.

I don't think they can release him either.

Personally if I had to make a prediction right now I'd go with them trading or releasing Allen. In part because they may not be able to do those things with Williams, but also because I think his youth and ability to stretch the field vs what Allen offers will be seen as plusses in his favor. I'm not saying that with any confidence right now for various reasons I've stated, just what I'd say if I had to make a prediction today. I also tend to think they will get Herbert's input.

Only prediction I'm confident making today is they won't keep both.

 

[Tau837]

People tried to speculate that Justin Jefferson might shut it down but that never made sense to me. Allen on the other hand, I'm bracing for the fact we might have seen the last of him. Hope not, but he has way more reasons to shut it down then JJ ever did.

I don't think he shuts it down unless he just is completely unable to go. Stats are important and not like he has a lot of years left. I think he will take every opportunity to play the game while he can.

Hope you are right but he's pretty beat up, the team is out of contention, his QB, coach and the GM who drafted and extended him are all gone and those factors combined with the fact that push likely has to come to shove with his contract this off-season as it's reached a point it most likely has to be adjusted, terminated or traded.

I expect Allen will be extended. And I expect him to play again as long as there is no risk of reinjury... he's a baller. I also think he probably wants to finish off this season as his career best. He has never made an official All Pro team, and he has a shot at that if he plays enough.

Thanks for your input, not as certain of it as you he'll return(this year or next) and the next year part is especially difficult for me to forecast when I don't know the new regime, though I'm thinking Herbert would have some level of input and he won't want to see him go.

Keeping in mind we don't know the new regime, do you think the greater likelihood is they let both Allen and Big Mike go vs keeping either one? I'd guess they keep at least one, and if that's the case it almost has to be Allen, right?

From what I've heard recently next year they have 4 30+ million dollar cap hits, Mack and Bosa are 35+, Keenan around 32 and Mike around 34. They can save 20 mill by cutting Mike, not sure about Keenan.

Even at 32 mill I think Keenan is worth it to that team with a stud QB and lack of skill position players.

As you alluded to we don't know the regime so kind of grasping at straws.

Also I'm not sure how it works if they decide they'd prefer to cut Mike Williams and he can't pass a physical.

One thing we know for sure is both are in their last year of their deals, their combined cap hits next season are $67M and I don't think they will be viewed as attractive extension candidates due to health and age.

They'd need the players consent but they could add voidable years to the deal instead of an extension and defray some cap costs. But two things on that. If the new regime feels they have patience from ownership they might prefer to bite the bullet this year instead of paying out over time. The player consent could be a real issue as well since they will be 30/32 and I'd imagine both of them would prefer and an extension, security, instead of facing hitting FA as 31 and 33 year old players.

They'd create $23M by cutting/trading Keenan.

Only thing I would take a different opinion of you is that Allen is worth $32M. I think if he was a FA he might land something in the $18m a year range, maybe, depends on years but that seems close to the high mark keeping in mind the highest cap hit this year for a WR this year is Tyreek around $23M and $18m would put you in the top 5. That's cap hit but if you look at the top paid WR's and just look at the real first 3 years of their contracts Tyreek's at $24m, Davante around $22m.

Allen's very good of course at what he does, elite, but the NFL has traditionally not put as high a value on possession WR's, especially older ones, as they do WR's that can stress the defense more or tilt the field.


My best guess right now is it's more likely they let both go then retain both but they'll find a way to keep one of them. I feel like the least likely outcome is they keep both. The tricky part to me is which one do they keep if they are keeping just one, again with the complication of their abilty to cut or trade Mike if the can't pass a physical.

Agree the new 'regime' matters here, and adds uncertainty for now.

I think it is most likely they keep Allen and release Williams. I say release Williams because I don't think they will be able to trade him until he can pass a physical, which might take well beyond the start of the new league year.

In keeping Allen, I think it is more likely that the team will extend his contract than just have him play out his final year at his current cap hit, but I think both are possible.

I don't think they can release him either.

Personally if I had to make a prediction right now I'd go with them trading or releasing Allen. In part because they may not be able to do those things with Williams, but also because I think his youth and ability to stretch the field vs what Allen offers will be seen as plusses in his favor. I'm not saying that with any confidence right now for various reasons I've stated, just what I'd say if I had to make a prediction today. I also tend to think they will get Herbert's input.

Only prediction I'm confident making today is they won't keep both.

I am confident they can release Williams. His 2024 salary is not guaranteed in the general sense, and I haven't seen any information that it was guaranteed in the event of injury. Same for his 2024 roster bonus. His other cap hit elements (amortized signing and restructure bonuses) have already been paid to him.

I will agree to disagree with the notion that the team's ultimate decisionmakers will believe Williams' value (e.g., ability to stretch the field and youth) outweigh the value Allen provides. I don't think that, and I will be surprised if the team ultimately indicates it thinks that.

Agree I don't think they will keep both, regardless of which one(s) is gone.

 

[efactor]

People tried to speculate that Justin Jefferson might shut it down but that never made sense to me. Allen on the other hand, I'm bracing for the fact we might have seen the last of him. Hope not, but he has way more reasons to shut it down then JJ ever did.

I don't think he shuts it down unless he just is completely unable to go. Stats are important and not like he has a lot of years left. I think he will take every opportunity to play the game while he can.

Hope you are right but he's pretty beat up, the team is out of contention, his QB, coach and the GM who drafted and extended him are all gone and those factors combined with the fact that push likely has to come to shove with his contract this off-season as it's reached a point it most likely has to be adjusted, terminated or traded.

I expect Allen will be extended. And I expect him to play again as long as there is no risk of reinjury... he's a baller. I also think he probably wants to finish off this season as his career best. He has never made an official All Pro team, and he has a shot at that if he plays enough.

Thanks for your input, not as certain of it as you he'll return(this year or next) and the next year part is especially difficult for me to forecast when I don't know the new regime, though I'm thinking Herbert would have some level of input and he won't want to see him go.

Keeping in mind we don't know the new regime, do you think the greater likelihood is they let both Allen and Big Mike go vs keeping either one? I'd guess they keep at least one, and if that's the case it almost has to be Allen, right?

From what I've heard recently next year they have 4 30+ million dollar cap hits, Mack and Bosa are 35+, Keenan around 32 and Mike around 34. They can save 20 mill by cutting Mike, not sure about Keenan.

Even at 32 mill I think Keenan is worth it to that team with a stud QB and lack of skill position players.

As you alluded to we don't know the regime so kind of grasping at straws.

Also I'm not sure how it works if they decide they'd prefer to cut Mike Williams and he can't pass a physical.

One thing we know for sure is both are in their last year of their deals, their combined cap hits next season are $67M and I don't think they will be viewed as attractive extension candidates due to health and age.

They'd need the players consent but they could add voidable years to the deal instead of an extension and defray some cap costs. But two things on that. If the new regime feels they have patience from ownership they might prefer to bite the bullet this year instead of paying out over time. The player consent could be a real issue as well since they will be 30/32 and I'd imagine both of them would prefer and an extension, security, instead of facing hitting FA as 31 and 33 year old players.

They'd create $23M by cutting/trading Keenan.

Only thing I would take a different opinion of you is that Allen is worth $32M. I think if he was a FA he might land something in the $18m a year range, maybe, depends on years but that seems close to the high mark keeping in mind the highest cap hit this year for a WR this year is Tyreek around $23M and $18m would put you in the top 5. That's cap hit but if you look at the top paid WR's and just look at the real first 3 years of their contracts Tyreek's at $24m, Davante around $22m.

Allen's very good of course at what he does, elite, but the NFL has traditionally not put as high a value on possession WR's, especially older ones, as they do WR's that can stress the defense more or tilt the field.


My best guess right now is it's more likely they let both go then retain both but they'll find a way to keep one of them. I feel like the least likely outcome is they keep both. The tricky part to me is which one do they keep if they are keeping just one, again with the complication of their abilty to cut or trade Mike if the can't pass a physical.

Agree the new 'regime' matters here, and adds uncertainty for now.

I think it is most likely they keep Allen and release Williams. I say release Williams because I don't think they will be able to trade him until he can pass a physical, which might take well beyond the start of the new league year.

In keeping Allen, I think it is more likely that the team will extend his contract than just have him play out his final year at his current cap hit, but I think both are possible.

I don't think they can release him either.

Personally if I had to make a prediction right now I'd go with them trading or releasing Allen. In part because they may not be able to do those things with Williams, but also because I think his youth and ability to stretch the field vs what Allen offers will be seen as plusses in his favor. I'm not saying that with any confidence right now for various reasons I've stated, just what I'd say if I had to make a prediction today. I also tend to think they will get Herbert's input.

Only prediction I'm confident making today is they won't keep both.

I am confident they can release Williams. His 2024 salary is not guaranteed in the general sense, and I haven't seen any information that it was guaranteed in the event of injury. Same for his 2024 roster bonus. His other cap hit elements (amortized signing and restructure bonuses) have already been paid to him.

I will agree to disagree with the notion that the team's ultimate decisionmakers will believe Williams' value (e.g., ability to stretch the field and youth) outweigh the value Allen provides. I don't think that, and I will be surprised if the team ultimately indicates it thinks that.

Agree I don't think they will keep both, regardless of which one(s) is gone.

If they keep Williams over Keenan, they are 10 kinds of stupid. Which means it will probably happen.

Allen in KC would be fun if the money works.

 

[menobrown]

I am confident they can release Williams.

As far as I've ever understood it you can't release a player who can't pass a physical. But I feel like there are some details that are important that I don't have so if you or anyone can share info in this or the Mike Williams thread please do so.

All I got is what I've always understood and this very un-official articles like this:https://www.profootballnetwork.com/los-angeles-chargers-mike-williams-injury-update-week-3-2023/

ETA this is the part of the article I was referring: The Clemson alum will be entering the final year of his contract in 2024. The Chargers could theoretically cut him next offseason and clear $20 million in salary cap space, but that transaction might not be feasible if Williams can’t pass a physical.

 

[Tau837]

I am confident they can release Williams.

As far as I've ever understood it you can't release a player who can't pass a physical. But I feel like there are some details that are important that I don't have so if you or anyone can share info in this or the Mike Williams thread please do so.

All I got is what I've always understood and this very un-official articles like this:https://www.profootballnetwork.com/los-angeles-chargers-mike-williams-injury-update-week-3-2023/

ETA this is the part of the article I was referring: The Clemson alum will be entering the final year of his contract in 2024. The Chargers could theoretically cut him next offseason and clear $20 million in salary cap space, but that transaction might not be feasible if Williams can’t pass a physical.

I tried to find something specific in the CBA but couldn't figure it out. Absolute worst case, they can do it by reaching an injury settlement, but am skeptical that is actually required in this situation.

I believe these are facts that bear on this:

• None of the remaining compensation in Williams' contract is guaranteed.
• He doesn't stand to get paid anything unless he is still on the roster in some form (whether active, IR, whatever) in week 1 of the 2024 regular season.
• If the team decides releasing or trading Williams is part of the solution to its 2024 cap challenge, they can theoretically wait as late as the start of the regular season to release or trade him and accomplish what they need from a cap perspective.
• If the team were to trade Williams, he has no control over what team acquires him.

This isn't necessarily a fact, but I speculate that the later into the offseason/preseason this goes, and the healthier Williams gets, the more possible a trade becomes instead of an outright release.

Assuming I'm right about those things, it seems to me that if the team informs Williams in February or March that he is going to be released when he can pass a physical, it is in Williams' best interest to obtain his release immediately rather than waiting. That enables him maximum participation in the free agency market without costing him any money, and it means he gets to decide on which team he will play for in 2024. So I don't see why Williams would resist it.

 

[grateful zed]

if they are going to release/trade him, why not play him?

 

[menobrown]

I am confident they can release Williams.

As far as I've ever understood it you can't release a player who can't pass a physical. But I feel like there are some details that are important that I don't have so if you or anyone can share info in this or the Mike Williams thread please do so.

All I got is what I've always understood and this very un-official articles like this:https://www.profootballnetwork.com/los-angeles-chargers-mike-williams-injury-update-week-3-2023/

ETA this is the part of the article I was referring: The Clemson alum will be entering the final year of his contract in 2024. The Chargers could theoretically cut him next offseason and clear $20 million in salary cap space, but that transaction might not be feasible if Williams can’t pass a physical.

I tried to find something specific in the CBA but couldn't figure it out. Absolute worst case, they can do it by reaching an injury settlement, but am skeptical that is actually required in this situation.

I believe these are facts that bear on this:

• None of the remaining compensation in Williams' contract is guaranteed.
• He doesn't stand to get paid anything unless he is still on the roster in some form (whether active, IR, whatever) in week 1 of the 2024 regular season.
• If the team decides releasing or trading Williams is part of the solution to its 2024 cap challenge, they can theoretically wait as late as the start of the regular season to release or trade him and accomplish what they need from a cap perspective.
• If the team were to trade Williams, he has no control over what team acquires him.

This isn't necessarily a fact, but I speculate that the later into the offseason/preseason this goes, and the healthier Williams gets, the more possible a trade becomes instead of an outright release.

Assuming I'm right about those things, it seems to me that if the team informs Williams in February or March that he is going to be released when he can pass a physical, it is in Williams' best interest to obtain his release immediately rather than waiting. That enables him maximum participation in the free agency market without costing him any money, and it means he gets to decide on which team he will play for in 2024. So I don't see why Williams would resist it.

Thanks for the reply but every thing I have dug up says that if if you cut a player who is unable to play because he was hurt while performing his duties for team he's going to be paid his salary for the upcoming season.

The part about waiting till later in camp/off-season won't help the Chargers get cap compliant before the new league year starts in March. Williams would know this and I'd guess only way he'd accept an injury settlement was if he thought hitting FA as a 30 year old coming off an ACL was better leverage then being a 31 year old a year removed from the ACL. He really would not need to be concerned with getting cut for cap purposes after March.

 

[Enderdog]

Williams will get $3M roster bonus if he's on the team on the third day of the 2024 league year.

 

[McBokonon]

Keenan declared out for Saturday.

 

[grateful zed]

Keenan Allen (heel) is out Saturday vs. Bills. Deane Leonard (heel) is doubtful. Essang Bassey (concussion), Nick Vannett (back), Nick Williams (shoulder) are questionable. (Daniel Popper on X)

FFToday's Take: Allen has missed practice the last two weeks and doesn't appear to be returning anytime soon, especially with the Chargers season in the tank and Easton Stick starting at quarterback. Starting wideouts are expected to be Josh Palmer and rookie Quentin Johnston. Both are WR3 options against the Bills on Saturday.

 

[WaltonGoggins]

I've got Palmer PPR league may have to start over Diontae or Lockett. Ditto with Noah Brown if Collins is out as well.

 

[efactor]

Keenan declared out for Saturday.

Wonderful. Two semi-final games without a top 5 WR

 

[phandango]

The weird thing is I'm not even sure the Chargers have said anything about the injury. It's just "heel."

 

[Tau837]

I am confident they can release Williams.

As far as I've ever understood it you can't release a player who can't pass a physical. But I feel like there are some details that are important that I don't have so if you or anyone can share info in this or the Mike Williams thread please do so.

All I got is what I've always understood and this very un-official articles like this:https://www.profootballnetwork.com/los-angeles-chargers-mike-williams-injury-update-week-3-2023/

ETA this is the part of the article I was referring: The Clemson alum will be entering the final year of his contract in 2024. The Chargers could theoretically cut him next offseason and clear $20 million in salary cap space, but that transaction might not be feasible if Williams can’t pass a physical.

I tried to find something specific in the CBA but couldn't figure it out. Absolute worst case, they can do it by reaching an injury settlement, but am skeptical that is actually required in this situation.

I believe these are facts that bear on this:

• None of the remaining compensation in Williams' contract is guaranteed.
• He doesn't stand to get paid anything unless he is still on the roster in some form (whether active, IR, whatever) in week 1 of the 2024 regular season.
• If the team decides releasing or trading Williams is part of the solution to its 2024 cap challenge, they can theoretically wait as late as the start of the regular season to release or trade him and accomplish what they need from a cap perspective.
• If the team were to trade Williams, he has no control over what team acquires him.

This isn't necessarily a fact, but I speculate that the later into the offseason/preseason this goes, and the healthier Williams gets, the more possible a trade becomes instead of an outright release.

Assuming I'm right about those things, it seems to me that if the team informs Williams in February or March that he is going to be released when he can pass a physical, it is in Williams' best interest to obtain his release immediately rather than waiting. That enables him maximum participation in the free agency market without costing him any money, and it means he gets to decide on which team he will play for in 2024. So I don't see why Williams would resist it.

Thanks for the reply but every thing I have dug up says that if if you cut a player who is unable to play because he was hurt while performing his duties for team he's going to be paid his salary for the upcoming season.

The part about waiting till later in camp/off-season won't help the Chargers get cap compliant before the new league year starts in March. Williams would know this and I'd guess only way he'd accept an injury settlement was if he thought hitting FA as a 30 year old coming off an ACL was better leverage then being a 31 year old a year removed from the ACL. He really would not need to be concerned with getting cut for cap purposes after March.

I would be surprised if they can't cut him without paying him his full 2024 salary and the various Chargers coverage sources haven't noted that, given their season is over and there has been plenty of reporting on their 2024 cap challenge. I guess it will be reported on officially in the coming months.

I will also point out that we don't know what is in his contract about injuries. Player contracts can include specific terms about what happens to compensation in case of injury. For example, a player's contract could say he only gets paid at 50% level while on IR (that is an example I saw earlier while searching).

I don't completely agree with your second paragraph, since it seems to focus only on cap compliance before the new league year starts. There are stages of cap compliance. Some of them in chronological order:

1. Be at or below 2024 cap at start of league year. This occurs in March. This is not that difficult since at the start of the league year, the roster will only have ~30-35 players under contract for 2024. They can release or trade Mack, release Linsley, and extend Allen and easily get cap compliant by then. But those are just examples, there will almost certainly be other cap casualties before the start of the league year.
2. Maintain cap compliance throughout free agency. Given the Chargers cap situation, they probably won't sign many, if any, internal or external free agents who require more than veteran minimum contracts, so this doesn't really have much cap impact.
3. Maintain cap compliance through the process of signing draft picks. They will presumably need $9M or so in available cap space to do this, and it will be progressive over the period of time that it takes to sign them all. This occurs around May-June timeframe.
4. Clear sufficient cap space for the regular season (e.g., practice squad, practice squad elevations, in-season injury replacements). This collectively requires at least about $8M or so in free cap space. This occurs no later than the end of preseason.

Releasing or trading Williams would clear $20M (unless they have to pay his $3M roster bonus, in which case it's down to $17M). But planning to release him essentially means they only need to clear ~$12M of that $20M before the end of preseason. Releasing or trading him then would clear the rest. If Williams forces them to wait until the end of preseason, they can do it. I don't see why he would prefer that, though, if he is ultimately going to get released or traded.

This means, if the Chargers want to trade or release him, the only way he stays on the roster through the 2024 season is if (1) you are right that he cannot be released without passing a physical, (2) he is unable to pass a physical by the start of the season, and (3) he is unwilling to negotiate a mutually agreeable injury settlement. I find that scenario, particularly #2, hard to imagine, given ACL recoveries are pretty routine nowadays.

 

[OrganizedChaos]

If he comes back in week 17 does anyone trust him with the current QB playing at Denver? I am considering dropping him in a 10 team league. Even if he's back which is iffy with that matchup and QB play he'll be riding my bench no matter what. Only issue is if he blows up on an opponent's team (if I even make it to next week). I realize 12 team leagues with bigger starting lineups it might be a closer call.

 

[top dog]

I will not be starting him if I am still there in 17 and he's available. Too much unknown. I'd rather not drop him and have him used against me though.

 

[Faust]

Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer reports the Chargers have “had exploratory trade talks” on Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.

According to Breer, Allen “appears to be least likely to be moved,” but the team is reportedly listening to all offers. Breer also notes that these discussions are primarily related to the team’s cap situation, as the Chargers are roughly $20.5 million over the cap per Spotrac.com. Allen turned in another solid campaign last season, totaling a career-high 108 receptions for 1,243 yards and seven touchdowns. Were it not for a heel injury that popped up after the team’s Week 14 loss to the Broncos, Allen would have likely finished the season with a new career-high in yards. Given Allen’s age and the fact he’s on an expiring contract, the veteran receiver could be acquired by a contender for a reasonable price.