WR Josh Gordon, KC (1 Viewer)

[xrayveggin]

More likely he gets stoned and is late to practice. 

Also if you remove Gordon's catch rate from Brady's stats and assign it to Wilson's stats, they end up about the same accuracy.

the first comment I'll just dismiss out of hand, because everyone already has that risk baked into their projections.

As for the second comment, Wilson's Average Intended Air Yards is 9.7 vs Brady's 7.2, and Wilson's Completed AIr Yards is 7.6 vs Brady's 5.6. So Wilson is throwing the ball on average 2 yards further per attempt, and completing at a 4% higher rate, and WIlson has thrown 22 TD on 293 passes compared to Brady's 14 on 355 passes. 

If you think Brady has anywhere close to the intermediate and downfield accuracy of Wilson, or remotely close to the same velocity, you are as blind as Gordon is high.

Anyway, I think Gordon is a viable WR3 after the bye week, with upside to be a WR2. 

 

[bolzano]

After the bye, I think a decent median prediction is an average of 4 catches, 70 yards, 0.5 TD per game (12 pts PPR), with quite high variance from game to game (basically what I expect from Metcalf the ROS). If Gordon is the same player physically that I saw in the Jets game, with Wilson's accuracy on the deep ball, I think there is a little more upside. 

This seems like a highly optimistic projection, as Metcalf is only averaging ~58 yards per game as the #2 (with Wilson performing at a career best pace). So I'm pretty skeptical that Gordon is going to eat that much as the clear #3. 

 

[Dizzy]

the first comment I'll just dismiss out of hand, because everyone already has that risk baked into their projections.

As for the second comment, Wilson's Average Intended Air Yards is 9.7 vs Brady's 7.2, and Wilson's Completed AIr Yards is 7.6 vs Brady's 5.6. So Wilson is throwing the ball on average 2 yards further per attempt, and completing at a 4% higher rate, and WIlson has thrown 22 TD on 293 passes compared to Brady's 14 on 355 passes. 

If you think Brady has anywhere close to the intermediate and downfield accuracy of Wilson, or remotely close to the same velocity, you are as blind as Gordon is high.

Anyway, I think Gordon is a viable WR3 after the bye week, with upside to be a WR2. 

So you've got him passing D.K. Metcalf on the depth chart?

 

[xrayveggin]

So you've got him passing D.K. Metcalf on the depth chart?

After the bye, I think Metcalf and Gordon will have very similar snap counts and targets. Metcalf is at 80% of snap counts, 6 targets per game through 9 games. I'm predicting Gordon takes Brown (28%) and Moore (53%) snap counts to get around 80%, and gets their targets (4 per game) plus gets 2 more targets per game as the team will need to pass a little more down the stretch due to better competition than they've faced in the first half of the season. 

 

[Anarchy99]

He's finally made it to a quality organization, green pastures and blue skies ahead 

Next time, Lucy will let Charlie Brown kick the football. No, really. It’s bound to happen eventually. 

 

[The Frankman]

I said it two pages ago, I'll say it again. If Gordon puts in a lot of work in practice and in game on his blocking and route running (the thing Carroll loves with his WRs) the results will pay off for him. But woe to his future if he's lazy or slacks off... Pete Carroll doesn't care about your pedigree or size if you don't do your job/get results, just ask Rashaad Penny.

 

[Todem]

the first comment I'll just dismiss out of hand, because everyone already has that risk baked into their projections.

As for the second comment, Wilson's Average Intended Air Yards is 9.7 vs Brady's 7.2, and Wilson's Completed AIr Yards is 7.6 vs Brady's 5.6. So Wilson is throwing the ball on average 2 yards further per attempt, and completing at a 4% higher rate, and WIlson has thrown 22 TD on 293 passes compared to Brady's 14 on 355 passes. 

If you think Brady has anywhere close to the intermediate and downfield accuracy of Wilson, or remotely close to the same velocity, you are as blind as Gordon is high.

Anyway, I think Gordon is a viable WR3 after the bye week, with upside to be a WR2. 

Keep smoking what Gordon smokes.

I can’t believe people are still handicapping this turd. LOL. Some people will never learn.

 

[BassNBrew]

the first comment I'll just dismiss out of hand, because everyone already has that risk baked into their projections.

As for the second comment, Wilson's Average Intended Air Yards is 9.7 vs Brady's 7.2, and Wilson's Completed AIr Yards is 7.6 vs Brady's 5.6. So Wilson is throwing the ball on average 2 yards further per attempt, and completing at a 4% higher rate, and WIlson has thrown 22 TD on 293 passes compared to Brady's 14 on 355 passes. 

If you think Brady has anywhere close to the intermediate and downfield accuracy of Wilson, or remotely close to the same velocity, you are as blind as Gordon is high.

Anyway, I think Gordon is a viable WR3 after the bye week, with upside to be a WR2. 

Gordon hasn't been a WR3 on his own team in a half decade much less a ff WR3.

 

[xrayveggin]

Gordon hasn't been a WR3 on his own team in a half decade much less a ff WR3.

you just don't do any research at all, do you?

Just last season, he WAS the WR2 in NE, even though he played fewer games than Hogan, Dorsett, and Patterson, he outpaced all of them in targets, receptions, and yards. And even though he only was on the team for 11 games, he played more snaps than Dorsett and Patterson, earning the 3rd most snaps among WRs despite playing in fewer games than any other WR.

Gordon played in 2 fewer games than Gronkowski and had more yards than Gronk.

Gordon led the team in yards per target and yards per reception by a comfortable margin.

He was easily the 2nd most productive WR on the Patriots in 2018.

In half PPR leagues, in weeks 4-14 as a Patriot, he averaged the 26th highest points per game among all WRs. He was a very startable WR3. He would've rated a bit lower in full PPR leagues and a bit higher in 0 PPR.

Based on recent history, there's a pretty high (pun intended) probability that Gordon will outscore any other player available right now on your waiver wire in weeks 12-17. And if he's available, he costs nothing.

 

[BassNBrew]

you just don't do any research at all, do you?

Just last season, he WAS the WR2 in NE, even though he played fewer games than Hogan, Dorsett, and Patterson, he outpaced all of them in targets, receptions, and yards. And even though he only was on the team for 11 games, he played more snaps than Dorsett and Patterson, earning the 3rd most snaps among WRs despite playing in fewer games than any other WR.

Gordon played in 2 fewer games than Gronkowski and had more yards than Gronk.

Gordon led the team in yards per target and yards per reception by a comfortable margin.

He was easily the 2nd most productive WR on the Patriots in 2018.

In half PPR leagues, in weeks 4-14 as a Patriot, he averaged the 26th highest points per game among all WRs. He was a very startable WR3. He would've rated a bit lower in full PPR leagues and a bit higher in 0 PPR.

Based on recent history, there's a pretty high (pun intended) probability that Gordon will outscore any other player available right now on your waiver wire in weeks 12-17. And if he's available, he costs nothing.

Game 4 - 5th in rec stats

Game 5 - 3rd, 0.3 in front of WR4

Game 6 - 5th

Game 7 - 3rd

Game 8 - 3rd, 1 pt ahead of 4 and 5

Game 9 - 1st

Game 10 - 2nd

Game 11 - 3rd

Game 12 - 2nd

Game 13 - 3rd

Game 14 - 7th

Game 15 forward...couldn't make it to work

Over 11 games he averaged 3.4th on his team in receiving stats.

 

[BassNBrew]

Based on recent history, there's a pretty high (pun intended) probability that Gordon will outscore any other player available right now on your waiver wire in weeks 12-17. And if he's available, he costs nothing.

Based on recent history, Gordon produces around WR70-80 in the fantasy playoffs.  There are likely guys on the wire you've never heard of that out produce him.

 

[bolldpt]

He's finally made it to a quality organization, green pastures and blue skies ahead 

I see what you did there.

 

[xrayveggin]

Game 4 - 5th in rec stats

Game 5 - 3rd, 0.3 in front of WR4

Game 6 - 5th

Game 7 - 3rd

Game 8 - 3rd, 1 pt ahead of 4 and 5

Game 9 - 1st

Game 10 - 2nd

Game 11 - 3rd

Game 12 - 2nd

Game 13 - 3rd

Game 14 - 7th

Game 15 forward...couldn't make it to work

Over 11 games he averaged 3.4th on his team in receiving stats.

He was the WR2 in fantasy point production during the time, averaging more points than any WR except Edelman. I don't know a single league that uses ordinal ranking of production as a way of scoring. Why are you? Trying really hard to find a way to not be wrong even though you are?  Just trolling?

In zero, half, and full PPR leagues, he was the 2nd most productive WR on his team in total fantasy points and weekly average fantasy points during those 11 weeks. That's WR2 production on his team. That's an absolute fact, and inarguable. He was the 26th WR in the entire NFL in points per game in half PPR leagues. That's high end WR3 production in the entire league. That's an absolute fact, and inarguable.

I'm not trying to convince you to roster him. But damn straight I'll call you out for your unfounded, unresearched, and absolutely and inarguably false statement:

Gordon hasn't been a WR3 on his own team in a half decade much less a ff WR3.

The argument to roster him is as follows:

He costs nothing to roster

He's got a clear path to the 3rd most targets per week on the team after the bye week (JBrown and DMoore are below replacement level players, the TE situation is very average or less than average, and there is a not a pass catching RB stealing targets).

He's on a top 4 offense in passing efficiency.

The offense scores the 7th most points per game in the NFL, with the 7th worst scoring kicking game (FG), and the 7th worst FG% kicker in the NFL.

His QB leads the NFL in passing TDs, and has been top 5 in passing TDs for the past 3 seasons.

His QB is top 5 attempted air yards and completed air yards, and has consistently been in the top 5 in the NFL in deep downfield passing efficiency for his entire career.

From weeks 12-16 where it might make sense to start Gordon they face defenses that are decidedly worse against the pass and better against the run (excepting Carolina in week 15): wk12 Phi 4% pass/ -18% run

wk13 Min -2% pass/ -17% run

wk14 LAR 3% pass/-23% run

wk16 Ari 29% pass/-5%run

And the icing on the cake, the defense is 27th in DVOA and gives up the 7th most points per drive and 10th most points per game. The offense will need to score points to win.

Will he fail a drug test in the next few seasons? Perhaps, probably, very likely? I don't know. He's been clean for 2 years now. Does he have a failed drug test that is in the appeal process that we are unaware of? no way to know, but possible for sure. WIll he fail a drug test within 8 weeks of landing in Seattle? unlikely, but probably wouldn't matter because the appeals process will take more than 6 weeks to pan out.

But for the next 6 weeks, I think Gordon could help out ff managers who need depth at the WR position, and there's a chance he could be a major contributor in a week 16 championship game against the 28th rated Arizona pass defense.

 

[BassNBrew]

He was the WR2 in fantasy point production during the time, averaging more points than any WR except Edelman. I don't know a single league that uses ordinal ranking of production as a way of scoring. Why are you? Trying really hard to find a way to not be wrong even though you are?  Just trolling?

In zero, half, and full PPR leagues, he was the 2nd most productive WR on his team in total fantasy points and weekly average fantasy points during those 11 weeks. That's WR2 production on his team. That's an absolute fact, and inarguable. He was the 26th WR in the entire NFL in points per game in half PPR leagues. That's high end WR3 production in the entire league. That's an absolute fact, and inarguable.

I'm not trying to convince you to roster him. But damn straight I'll call you out for your unfounded, unresearched, and absolutely and inarguably false statement:

The argument to roster him is as follows:

He costs nothing to roster

He's got a clear path to the 3rd most targets per week on the team after the bye week (JBrown and DMoore are below replacement level players, the TE situation is very average or less than average, and there is a not a pass catching RB stealing targets).

He's on a top 4 offense in passing efficiency.

The offense scores the 7th most points per game in the NFL, with the 7th worst scoring kicking game (FG), and the 7th worst FG% kicker in the NFL.

His QB leads the NFL in passing TDs, and has been top 5 in passing TDs for the past 3 seasons.

His QB is top 5 attempted air yards and completed air yards, and has consistently been in the top 5 in the NFL in deep downfield passing efficiency for his entire career.

From weeks 12-16 where it might make sense to start Gordon they face defenses that are decidedly worse against the pass and better against the run (excepting Carolina in week 15): wk12 Phi 4% pass/ -18% run

wk13 Min -2% pass/ -17% run

wk14 LAR 3% pass/-23% run

wk16 Ari 29% pass/-5%run

And the icing on the cake, the defense is 27th in DVOA and gives up the 7th most points per drive and 10th most points per game. The offense will need to score points to win.

Will he fail a drug test in the next few seasons? Perhaps, probably, very likely? I don't know. He's been clean for 2 years now. Does he have a failed drug test that is in the appeal process that we are unaware of? no way to know, but possible for sure. WIll he fail a drug test within 8 weeks of landing in Seattle? unlikely, but probably wouldn't matter because the appeals process will take more than 6 weeks to pan out.

But for the next 6 weeks, I think Gordon could help out ff managers who need depth at the WR position, and there's a chance he could be a major contributor in a week 16 championship game against the 28th rated Arizona pass defense.

Damn you, you make some good arguments.

All I know is that most every week I stated him last year, there were two guys on my bench who outscored him.

I'm not trying to convince you to roster him.

Already did 

Dropped Newton when news of his foot not getting better surfaced and picked up Gordon when the rumor of him going to waivers surfaced.

 

[xrayveggin]

Damn you, you make some good arguments.

All I know is that most every week I stated him last year, there were two guys on my bench who outscored him.

Already did 

Dropped Newton when news of his foot not getting better surfaced and picked up Gordon when the rumor of him going to waivers surfaced.

Good luck. Hope you win Josh a FF championship .. . bong!

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Josh Gordon is active for Week 10 against the 49ers Monday.

Gordon was claimed off waivers last week and will be making his Seahawks debut. It's obviously a tough matchup, and Gordon is unlikely to play a full snap share. Inactive for the Seahawks are WR Jaron Brown, CB Akeem King, WR John Ursua, RB C.J. Prosise, OG Phil Haynes, S Lano Hill, and DE L.J. Collier.

Nov 11, 2019, 6:56 PM ET

 

[Uncle Leo]

He will go off in the second half, right?

 

[Dizzy]

He will go off in the second half, right?

I thought he looked great on the exercise bike.

 

[Uncle Leo]

He’s Back!

 

[rockaction]

.

 

[Man of Constant Sorrow]

So...Locket is sitting out the final few series tonight. Apparently an injury. 

And nothing here yet? 

This place is slipping. 

 

[rockaction]

So...Locket is sitting out the final few series tonight. Apparently an injury. 

And nothing here yet? 

This place is slipping. 

I think it's a little like at this point. 

 

[Man of Constant Sorrow]

I think it's a little like at this point. 

Oh, for sure. I agree. 

It is just that I was shocked that the next beating hadn't begun yet.

 

[Kevrunner]

Gordon looked pretty good, limited his snaps due to his short time with the playbook, but he still had 2 big catches. 

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Vintage Gordon, came thru when Lockett had to stay put 

Hawks won and he was a big part of overtime

 

[Faust]

Josh Gordon caught both of his targets for 27 yards in the Seahawks' Week 10 win over the 49ers.

He wasn't targeted until the fourth quarter, but Gordon made both of his catches count, turning them into third-down conversions. Gordon played behind David Moore and Malik Turner much of the night, but the Seahawks will likely use the Week 11 bye to get him more integrated into the offense. Gordon should be owned wherever he's available.

Nov 12, 2019, 12:50 AM ET

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

 

[BoltBacker]

Will he fail a drug test in the next few seasons? Perhaps, probably, very likely? I don't know. He's been clean for 2 years now. 

Why do you think he left the NE Patriots less than a year ago?

I also strongly disagree with the "he costs nothing to roster" angle. He has costed a roster spot..... since 2013. How many productive games has the guy had after the 2013 season? He has been taking up a roster spot in most of my dynasty leagues since then.

 

[Faust]

Josh Gordon played 28-of-74 offensive snaps in Seattle's Week 10 win over the 49ers.

He was in on 38 percent of the team's offensive plays, totaling 2/27 with two pivotal third-down catches in a limited showing. With Tyler Lockett (leg) being taken to the hospital and reportedly dealing with a "severe" contusion, Gordon could be in line for more work in a terrific matchup against Philadelphia's secondary out of Seattle's Week 11 bye. 'Flash' should be rostered wherever he's available.

Nov 12, 2019, 8:28 AM ET

 

[xrayveggin]

Why do you think he left the NE Patriots less than a year ago?

I think he was feeling like he was getting to a place where he would abuse substances again, and decided it was more important to take care of himself than to be there for his team (he was right). It was a smart and mature choice, and it's the kind of positive step you want to see from someone with substance abuse history. If he had tested positive, we would have heard it, and it would have been announced as a lifetime ban, like his prior suspension that lasted 1.5 seasons.

I also strongly disagree with the "he costs nothing to roster" angle. He has costed a roster spot..... since 2013. How many productive games has the guy had after the 2013 season? He has been taking up a roster spot in most of my dynasty leagues since then.

yes, he costs the last spot on your roster, who for most teams is a completely replaceable player. Gordon may also be a completely replaceable player, but he does have upside in terms of talent (which is not near his peak, but it still apparently good enough to beat Sherman in tight press coverage) and QB/opportunity and schedule, and he is more likely to be relevant in the last 6 weeks of the season than many other players on the waiver wire (most of whom don't have his talent, or his potential opportunity, or his favorable schedule). 

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Does he have a failed drug test that is in the appeal process that we are unaware of? no way to know, but possible for sure.

I’ll say this much, I think Seattle would have been aware if this was the case and they wouldn’t have added him. I doubt this is what happened in NE. Someone posted an article in here about how he wasn’t a good fit for Brady in terms of style of play and I thought it made the most sense of anything I’ve read.

 

[Wise Old Owl]

What's the standard for putting someone on IR? I don't really understand how a team can IR a player that is fit to play 2 weeks later. Is there no standard due to the understanding that the team loses that player for a year?

 

[Anarchy99]

What's the standard for putting someone on IR? I don't really understand how a team can IR a player that is fit to play 2 weeks later. Is there no standard due to the understanding that the team loses that player for a year?

IIRC, there is no “standard.” Since a player gets paid, I don’t believe there is much difference between a player being inactive game after game or being on IR. For the team, the player is ineligible to play for 8 games or the remainder of the season if they don’t choose to have him return. 

NE didn’t just release him outright because they would have had to eat the salary cap hit and potentially a divisional rival could have claimed him. By waiting until the trade deadline passed, Gordon had to go through waivers and SEA took on his contract and salary cap hit for the remainder of the season. 

A bigger issue would have been if NE put him on IR and left him there if he were healthy. There likely would have been a grievance filed through the NFLPA,  but that was avoided when Gordon was released.  BB had stashed younger players on IR multiple times in recent years and there never seemed to be any blow back. 

 

[ffmail4me]

I might have to start him this weekend due to injuries...any hope for a decent game? Think bye week helped him learn the offense? It’s either start Gordon, Isabella, or Anthony Miller. Brutal I know.... 

 

[kyoun1e]

Any Lockett owners feel like he’s a must own this week? Gordon sitting in waivers.

 

[Team Smokin']

I might have to start him this weekend due to injuries...any hope for a decent game? Think bye week helped him learn the offense? It’s either start Gordon, Isabella, or Anthony Miller. Brutal I know.... 

No reason not to believe that Gordon's role doesn't increase. He played on like 38-39% of the snaps, caught a couple nice balls.

I'm a SEA / Wilson owner and I like all pass catchers in that offense. Lockett seems to be back, DK shining, Hollister impressive, now add Gordon. Lethal. One never plans on an injury, yet I can also treat all of these guys like handcuffs to RB's. 

Gordon just may be that shot in the dark play to score and catch 4-5 balls.

Who does your gut say has a better chance from the list of 3 WR's?

 

[The Man With No Name]

Yeah, Brown hardly played last game and could be cut or inactive with Gordon around

 

[BassNBrew]

I might have to start him this weekend due to injuries...any hope for a decent game? Think bye week helped him learn the offense? It’s either start Gordon, Isabella, or Anthony Miller. Brutal I know.... 

I'm in the same boat because of byes.  Last week of our regular season.  Might be starting Metcalf, Gordon, and Hollister.

Why did I do this to myself again?

 

[bostonfred]

No reason not to believe that Gordon's role doesn't increase.

There might not be a reason not to believe that Gordon's role doesn't increase, but there's also no reason not to believe that Gordon's role doesn't not decrease, either. 

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Lockett is pretty much the key here, but I do think Wilson wants a reliable red zone target and Gordon could be a TD hawk more than a receptions/yardage guy for this team.

 

[Hooper31]

Another data point showing Waldman is the best fantasy writer alive. 
 

Josh Gordon is the rabbit hole of football. Regardless of the angle you take, the subject of Josh Gordon holds the mirror up to our collective ignorance as fans and football analysts.

Make the argument that Gordon is an addict who will unlikely remain clean long enough to make an impact and the counter-argument is that Gordon's repeated opportunities are a sign that he's made enough progress in his recovery—despite steps backward that are expected for addicts early on—that he's continuing to earn more opportunities to play.

If you raise the point that Gordon is only earning these opportunities because he's a massive talent, then you can't argue that Gordon has greatly diminished as a performer. Unfortunately, when it comes to Gordon, they place wheels under the goalposts of their arguments against him.

And if your only argument is that Gordon is no longer as good as his reputation, then you're ignorant about the details of a player's fit with the scheme. You may also be in denial about the substance of Tom Brady's game, which is a rampant focal point of ignorance from a variety of perspectives due to the polarizing emotions attached to his career.

Most of all, Josh Gordon holds the mirror up to fans and analysts about the nature of talent and how little we understand this prized commodity despite our constant obsession over who has it, who lacks it, and can they somehow develop it. [\quote]

 

[Encumbrance]

Or you could have brought up every single point Matt Waldman does for three hundred pages now, as people here have done on their own.  

 

[Ilov80s]

All I see when I read some of these posts

 

[xrayveggin]

There might not be a reason not to believe that Gordon's role doesn't increase, but there's also no reason not to believe that Gordon's role doesn't not decrease, either. 

"Truly, you have a dizzying intellect" 

 

[BassNBrew]

Another data point showing Waldman is the best fantasy writer alive. 
 

We blaming Wilson now?

 

[BassNBrew]

Thank goodness we learn our lesson from seasons past and start L Murray today

 

[Don Hutson]

Week 10 Gordon plays 37% of snaps 10 days after being signed.  He makes two crucial catches.  He has a Week 11 bye to become more integrated into the offense.  He plays 34% of snaps in Week 12.  No bueno.

 

[Faust]

Josh Gordon caught his lone target for 10 yards in the Seahawks' Week 13 win over the Vikings.

His patented play since joining the Seahawks, Gordon caught a third-down slant to give Seattle a first down. That's all he's been good for since coming over from New England. Gordon has four catches for 47 scoreless yards across three games. He doesn't see nearly enough of the field to be a fantasy option.

Dec 3, 2019, 12:25 AM ET

 

[BassNBrew]

Thank goodness we learn our lesson from seasons past and start L Murray today

Building on this, benched Gordon for Jeffrey this week.  Wished I'd figured on the bench this bum for a stud on your bench strategy years ago.

 

[BassNBrew]

Another data point showing Waldman is the best fantasy writer alive. 
 

Update?