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WR Jayden Reed, GB (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Ilov80s
Footballguy
One of those really good players that was mysteriously undervalued every step of the way. I guess it's because of Jordan Love but it's unlikely Love is around next year. Actually reminds me a lot of the mysterious lack of interest in Dotson last year.
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I can understand Mingo because there is a clear path to #1 WR in Carolina, but yeah, its very wild that Reed is so far behind Rice and to a lesser extent Mims.
KingPrawn
Footballguy
What? Love ain't going nowhere
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Why do you think Love is locked in as a 2 year starter right now? If he does start next year it’s because he played well this season so that’s fine for Reed.
rockaction
Footballguy
They extended him at about 10-15 million for next year.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
It looks like $7 mill next year (some void year stuff for 2025 which I never really get so it is like 12 in dead cap) which is Jacoby Brissett, Taylor Heineke money. I would be pretty surprised if the Packers feel obligated to play him if he isn't good this year.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Green Bay has seemingly put together a nice group of young pass catchers. It will be interesting to see how the targets are distributed this season.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Also will be interesting to see how Love uses them. I know people are big on Watson but I’m not sold there’s any certainty he’s going to be Love’s favorite target.
Chaka
Footballguy
I thought it was a great throw too. Nice touch.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Great pass.
Chaka
Footballguy
Early reports from camp were he was locked in on Doubs. Haven't followed closely enough to know if that may have changed.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Targets have been pretty evenly spread out in preseason. Good chance it’s too well distributed to help us too much in fantasy but injuries or rapport may change things as we move on.
Chaka
Footballguy
I think, if the targets remain mostly evenly distributed, Watson is still the guy to own.
He is just far bigger and more athletic than any of their other guys.
Another plus for Love is he has three decent sized WRs to throw to with Watson 6'5", Doubs 6'2" & Reed at 6"0". Throw in Musgrave at 6'6" it potentially makes a very forgiving receiving corps.
Love is climbing up my board.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Watson is also potentially limited to a kind of field stretching role. Is that the kind of play that Love is going to like attempt regularly? I don't know
Chaka
Footballguy
I'm not sure I agree with that narrative. He had four TDs from inside the 15 (two inside the eight).
He had 7 rushing attempts (2 TDs) as well.
And when you figure in Lazard & Cobb & Tonya along with Doubs I don't know how many intermediate targets were really available in the game plan for Watson.
This year as the potential #1 target I think we should expect somewhat different usage overall and I wouldn't pigeon hole him into an Alvin Harper role.
Snoopy
Footballguy
He had a long reception last night that was originally ruled incomplete.
Love this guy. He was a must draft in my dynasty in the 2nd round. His college tape gave me Antonio Brown vibes.
Awesome route runner, silky smooth in and out of his breaks. Shouldn't have much competition out of the slot. I don't know if he's going to be relevant in redraft, but I am monitoring him very closely. Loved it when he landed in Green Bay. I like him more than Josh Downs, not quite in that Flowers tier but should be a highly productive pro.
Awesome route runner, silky smooth in and out of his breaks. Shouldn't have much competition out of the slot. I don't know if he's going to be relevant in redraft, but I am monitoring him very closely. Loved it when he landed in Green Bay. I like him more than Josh Downs, not quite in that Flowers tier but should be a highly productive pro.
-jb-
Footballguy
Both he and JJ Z-son are super high on him, and we already have Watson and Doubs ailing. Took a flyer on him with final pick of the draft. Super lotto
I’m rolling with him in the flex if Watson is out.
Snoopy
Footballguy
Watson has been ruled out.
Not yet but picked him up as my wr4/5 everywhere
Thanks. Didn’t catch that.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Chicago spent a little money in the off-season and drafted a CB, but there run D is still a sieve. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are going to dog tired Monday.
Took Reed in the 17th round but he's my WR6, probably roll with Chase/Waddle/Olave and Flex Addison (or JSN but leaning towrds the USC rookie.)
I like Reed, good TC and PS, he looks pro ready. That said, we're talking about an offense with a QB who has 157 snaps and a WR corps with 20 career starts - Watson 11, Doubs 7, Samori Toure 2.
Need to see it first. But if Stevenson is covering Reed you should feel OK about starting him.
Musgrave or a RB are the most likely to lead them in targets. IMO
***************
Da Bears will be in a lot of Cover 2 (2nd most in the league last year) - they have gotten away from playing Fangio style quarters/quarters half. They're trying to develop a mid-2000s Bears D under Lovie. To put a finer point on it, like the 2018 Colts (HC Matt Eberflus was the DC.) That has informed their personnel decisions (trading Roquan, signing Edmunds) bc they need more athletic dudes to play the style zone they want. BUT....that DL is weak. Couple promising rookie IDL but the EDGE rushers are....underwhelming. Literally no one you can say "that's the guy who will get us big sacks when we need it."
They're going to get mauled by the Packers on the ground. Maybe Love is in love with Reed, but for this week, they'll lean on the run game. IMO
Yeah I’m not playing him personally but it’s a nice wait and see if he can be a flex guy for me later on
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
That article has a named byline, but it really sounds like it was written by ChatGPT. I've been noticing that more and more lately. Then again, maybe it's just a function of these sites hiring untalented writers
eighsse2
Footballguy
What's so unhuman about "he can be used on Jet Sweeps plays"? I'm a big fan of the Jet Sweeps plays. Jet Sweeps plays is probably the best of all the Sweeps plays.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
footballpanda
Footballguy
He looked good in preseason. I think he can put up some points when he’s the WR2 in that offense. Hard for me to imagine him being a consistent scorer as a rookie. There will be a lot of running and throws to the TE tomorrow I think. Should get enough targets to potentially score some points though.
The Frankman
Footballguy
Faust
MVP
Dwain McFarland
Let's get Jayden Reed a full-time role and see what happens @Ihartitz
67% route participation
39% targets per route
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Mentioned this in the waiver thread, but while yesterday's stat line was a little fake (he scored on a push pass and a blown coverage), I'm still buying based on the fact that a lot of fantasy nerds I trust (JJ Zachariason, Matt Harmon) have been in on this guy for months. I also think that, given how young and unsettled the GB pass catchers are, he probably has more upside than rookies like JSN, Addison or Quentin Johnson, all of whom have established stars in front of them. Not saying he'll be better than them, just that he has a clearer path to being his team's top fantasy WR.
packer_junkie
Footballguy
Kid can play-- I think targets will be sporadic as Watson returns... Lots of young guys they like including other rookie Wicks from Virginia
JamboTaylor
Footballguy
Green Bay #1? 
Insein
Footballguy
Don't think so yet. But if he keeps catching what's thrown to him, he might get there. Right now he's the clear #2 or 3 only getting about 5-6 targets a game. But he's producing so hopefully that means more.Green Bay #1?
Ilov80s
Footballguy
He was tops in route participation a week or 2 ago so it has happened. He's at least making things happen. There's some solid signs here.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Packers Routes Run Week 10 at PIT
- Doubs 35
- Watson 34
- Musgrave 31
- Reed 24
- Jones 21
- Wicks 20
- Kraft 18
- Dillon 15
- Reed 3.50
- Wicks 2.50
- Musgrave 2.06
- Jones 0.90
- Doubs 0.89
- Dillon 0.73
- Watson 0.68
- Kraft 0.33
Targets / Target Market Share / % of RR receiving Targets
- Watson 7 | 20.59% | 20.59%
- Reed 5 | 14.71% | 20.83%
5th time in 9 games receiving targets on 20% or more of his RR - Jones 5 | 14.71% | 23.81%
- Doubs 5 | 14.71% | 14.29%
- Wicks 4 | 11.76% | 20.00%
- Musgrave 4 | 11.76% | 12.90%
- Dillon 2 | 5.88% | 13.33%
- Kraft 2 | 5.88% | 11.1%
- Slot Watson 21, Reed 19, Musgrave 13, Doubs 8, Wicks 5, Jones, Kraft 3
- Wide Doubs 30, Wicks 17, Watson 14, Reed 6, Musgrave 6, Jones 4, Dillon 3, Kraft 3
- Inline Musgrave 16, Kraft 15, Jones 3, Dillon 3, Watson 1
Season Long Yards per RR leaders - GB
- Reed 1.88
- Jones 1.76
- Wicks 1.52
- Watson 1.33
- Musgrave 1.32
- Doubs 1.23
- Deguara 1.10
- Toure 1.02
- Dillon 0.77
- Kraft 0.16
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dipandglide
Footballguy
I like what I'm seeing. He might've been the best value in dynasty drafts this year. It's wild he was falling into the 3rd in superflex leagues.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Cross posting fm the weekly WW thread
@1320kid
I would evaluate it as follows (and before doing so would add I've watched enough All 22 film of the Packers I feel pretty confident I have this right)
We need to think about this terms of game flow. Now we cannot anticipate game script; that's a fool's errand. What I'm about to go into is descriptive not prescriptive.
- GB likes both it's rookie TEs. Tucker Kraft may one day be fantasy relevant but not this year; however, he is an excellent blocker in 12 formations, both in the run game and to stay in to help out with pass pro. He gets some scraps occasionally but that's not his role, even though he was VERY productive at South Dakota State (which is basically the D-II equivalent to Iowa,)
- Like most teams GB will run a subset of platforms off primarily 11 and 12 personnel. In the latter we have 1 RB 1 TE and 3 WR; league wide the average is around 65%. That grouping is why so many defenses run some variant of a nickel package as their true base defense. Conversely, in 12 formation there is 1 RB 1 TE and 2 WR.
- GB runs a little less 12 personnel than league average. That's partly bc they have been trailing a lot. Musgrave lines up a lot in the Slot and some out wide, functionally he's like a Big X WR. Even when they are in 12 personnel, they still kind of have 3 WR on the field if we include the rookie from Oregon State.
- Among the players with WR position designation, Jayden Reed functions primarily as the Slot WR. On days when they run less 11 personnel, he's the odd man out. That means he is dependent on making the most of fewer opportunities in order to be productive. So far he has been doing that for the most part, BUT caveat emptor - there will be games where he is running way less routes. Most FF managers will look at targets and say "eh....rookie WR, they're inconsistent, can't trust Reed." I think that's bad process but most folks are looking for shortcuts so the hobby doesn't become too much of a time suck. I get it.
- The GB WR room is mostly thought of as Watson as the alpha - he's been anything but that YTD due to a series of injuries - and then Doubs, with Wicks getting a few boundary snaps.
(NOTE: I'm using boundary as a synonym for outside WR. Don't get it twisted....in some systems we refer to field WR and boundary WR, and that has to do with which side is closer to the hash mark the ball is on....not what I'm talking about, sorry if anyone finds that confusing.)
- Snap Counts are not enough. They're a rough estimate, but we want to measure twice and cut once. Snap Counts don't ever breakdown how many were run snaps and how many were passing snaps. That info is out there but it's behind paywalls, most FF folks won't be able to crack that code. Information is powerful and bad information is just as powerful as good info. Admittedly the effect of that run snap count/pass snap count does tend to smooth out over time but it's much more variable game-to-game.
Packers Routes Run
- Doubs 280
- Musgrave 237
- Reed 222
- Watson 177
- Wicks 157
- Dillon 148
- Jones 95
- Kraft 67
- Toure 61
- Deguara 59
- Reed 1.88
- Jones 1.76
- Sims 1.56
- Wicks 1.52
- Watson 1.33
- Musgrave 1.32
- Doubs 1.23
- Wilson 1.17
- Deguara 1.10
- Toure 1.02
- Dillon 0.77
- Taylor 0.58
- Kraft 0.16
Targets
- Doubs 56
- Reed 43
- Musgrave 39
- Watson 33
- Wicks 27
- Jones 25
- Dillon 16
- Toure 11
- Taylor 10
- Deguara 8
- Heath 5
- Kraft 4
- Wilson 3
- Sims 2
- Doubs 19.86%
- Reed 15.25%
- Musgrave 13.83%
- Watson 11.70%
- Wicks 9.57%
- Jones 8.87
- Dillon 5.67%
- Toure 3.90%
- Taylor 3.55%
- Deguara 2.84%
- Heath 1.77%
- Kraft 1.42%
- Wilson 1.06%
- Sims 0.71%
- Jones 26.32 (25 targets / 95 routes run)
- Wilson 25.00% (calm down, it's 3 targets on 12 routes)
- Sims 22.22% (2 targets on 9 routes)
- Heath 20.83% (5 T / 24 RR)
- Doubs 20.00%
- Reed 19.37%
- Taylor 18.18% (10/55)
- Toure 18.03%
- Watson 18.64%
- Wicks 17.20%
- Musgrave 16.46%
- Deguara 13.56%
- Dillon 10.81%
- Kraft 5.97%
Alignment (top 5 for each)
- Slot Reed 190, Musgrave 111, Watson 62, Wicks 49, Doubs 43, Deguara 36, Toure 24, Kraft 12
- Wide Doubs 256, Watson 122, Wicks 115, Reed 47, Toure 37, Musgrave 24, Heath 20, Dillon 11, Jones 11
- Inline Musgrave 137, Kraft 64, Deguara 20, Sims 14, Taylor 8, Dillon 8, Jones 7, Watson 5
